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OT - my 8 year old home in Northern Cal. would sell today conservatively for 50% over the assessed value that I pay 1.25% property taxes on.
Warren Buffet is right - hiking taxes on expensive real estate is one of the best ways to fix the budget deficit but will be very unpopular for some folks.
I still won't vote for the Arnold / Buffet team as I am disgusted by this Republican led lynching that has no place in a proper electoral process.
Bearmove, while I think digital cameras and phone cameras are starting to take off, this announcement just smells of some potential bad news because they mention "future plans and prospects."
Yesterday, before HPs earnings came out I mentioned to a friend that I bet they won't be good because a week prior, Carly Fiorina had a huge pitch even on the local news about all the new products HP was coming out with. I believe this was done to stem the blow from the horrible earnings that they knew were coming. If the earnings were good they could have saved this marketing bullet for after the earnings.
While I don't know much about OVTI, they have tons of success built into their price up here and are already up 600% of so over the past year.
They're still doing less than $50M per quarter so will either execute successfully and increase their market share in this much bigger market or start losing it to the big boys that want a piece of this very hot market.
Euphoria everywhere, even on this thread!
Leads me to believe this rally doesn't have too far to go and the risk is on the long side.
Think housing starts to roll over soon. Notice building permits (which leading housing starts)came in below consensus yesterday.
What do the "what is, is" people start saying if the market falls 20 - 30% from here?
Hey Fed, I don't ever remember the FED pumping in 20B like they did on Friday. Do you know when was the last time we saw 20B or more pumped in?
Zeev, looks like the current turnip prognosis is "seeing how 1640 will be handled," correct? I remember a mention of getting close to a "to the hills" call a few days ago but don't believe you had enough indicators line up to deem the RTTH call appropriate quite yet. Haven't been as on top of things lately and wanted to see if I was up to date.
Thanks.
Burk, I hope there's enough people like me who really like Arnold and love Buffet but won't vote for them because of disdain for the Rove / Bush "hijack the elections" team that needs an unbelievable ass kicking for the shenanigans they have pulled in Florida, Iraq, and now CA. They are ruthless competitors that need to be dealt with in a ruthless fashion. And the dems need another Bill Clinton to make that happen.
However, the dems and the Davis team are laying low for now and will fight soon. Don't think CA will rollover to this Republican charade that easy.
Yes, we should take this to the politics thread but it's late.
Great Pics Alex G. New York is truly one of the best if not THE BEST city in the world. I have lived in the Bay Area for 15 years now and it is truly a wonderful place that I probably will never leave but I grew up in NYC and seeing pics like this are always great - truly a phenomenal place that I love to get back to when possible - many thanks to Rudy G. for keeping it great in my absence!
OT: Looks like they may have to recall Gov George Pataki because of this power outage.
My bad, he's a Republican so not on the President's hit list. Still will be surprised if the Dems lose CA but Buffet surely raises the bar, and he's a democrat!
DELL Earnings. Looks inline across the board including guidance. Any comments on the earnings? Any important details in the press release or con call?
WAVX pumpers must be looking despearately for an exit for their Series whatever shares that they were sold (as in a bill of goods).
Looks like a pyramid scheme company.
Japan up 150 so far tonight. Looks like bankruptcies are way down and buying of cyclicals is happening. Bankruptcies down 23.7% in July of this year vs. last year. And then this comment in the news release:
"We still think it is difficult to say that Japan has entered a sustainable recovery...and we still do not see strong impetus coming from areas such as capital spending and private consumption," Teikoku said in a statement.
"The current drop in bankruptcies is not due to an elimination of a potential crisis, but rather to a postponement of that crisis."
Anybody who knows Japan better than I do have an idea if they are postponing or eliminating the crisis?
This must be Burkmere. How are you?
Still short by the way...
Agree Wstera, things that make you say SHORT!
BRCD just warned on top line revenue for next quarter.
$134 - 139M vs. $141M first call consensus - kept EPS at .02 which matches first call.
Just another indicator of this great economy.
Actually, I see Cory Johnson as one of the few people on CNBC that knows what he is talking about.
Both are helpful Bullwinkle, thanks. Still want to try and get those numbers overlayed with the stockmarket to see the correlation, if any.
>You seem to think the increase in temp workers outweighs these numbers? Has that been the case in previous job recoveries to your knowledge?<
>Yes, companies first hire temps as work flow and projects increase. As business picks up further they then they then take on some of the temps as perm employees and also start to run adds for additional hires. All I'm saying is to watch the temp activity before getting totally bearish on the economy. <
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Bear, sorry to get more specific here but I think this is a very important issue in terms of whether we are picking up in the economy or not. So I want to ask a very specific question:
Can you or Augieboo or anyone chart previous stock market recoveries and maybe layover on that chart 3 separate lines:
1) Temp worker hiring from whatever source is most accurate
2) Non-farm payrolls
3) Challenger "layoff announcement" numbers
My point is I would really like to see where the Non-farm payrolls and Challenger layoff announcements were in previous recoveries when the temp employee number was picking up and I bet #2 and #3 were not showing drastic layoffs in the face of increasing temp workers which is what we are seeing right now. I bet in the past the non-farm payrolls and Challenger layoff announcements were flat or showing a slight pickup.
So can anyone obtain this data? I will try myself as well.
Bear, how do the big June and July losses in non-farm payrolls and the Challenger increase in layoff announcements factor into your analysis?
You seem to think the increase in temp workers outweighs these numbers? Has that been the case in previous job recoveries to your knowledge?
As I sit here doing a quick catch up on some posts drinking a lovely Saintsbury Pinot Noir (California Burgundy for you French oenophiles), this modest post from Zeev is an example of what makes this site SO DIFFERENT!
The humbleness, sharing, and self humility is really special.
Sounds like we have another 1/2 hour or so before CSCO talks guidance according to smiling John.
Blown out of the water. CSCO isn't saving any day - let's see what the guidance is in the CC - that should have an effect.
SPX perched at 965. CSCO either causes a rocket launch off of 965 or blast right on down through it.
Bear, I noticed the increase in temp jobs in Friday's report and was thinking the same thing. I also noticed the July nonfarm payrolls were down 44,000 and June were revised down from -30,000 to -72,000. Do you know how the nonfarm payrolls fared in the 1991, 1992 recovery for comparison's sake? It still looks like we're losing many manufacturing jobs every month and I'm wondering if this was the case back in 1991, 1992.
Fred, try Price / Sales and you will see that these Chinese Internets are way overvalued:
NTES - 55.42
SOHU - 27.77
EBAY - 19.49
AMZN - 3.52
YHOO - 16.98
Agreed, but I'm not sure the employment numbers have really sunk in yet and they are bad. Why? Because the 6.2% number that people focus on which came in better than the 6.3% consensus is only based on 60,000 households meaning that number (good or bad) is always suspect.
The nonfarm payrolls (down 44,000 in July and revised down 72,000 in June instead of down 30,000) is very bad news. This data is based on a business survey of 375,000 businesses representing millions of employees so is therefore far more representative of what is really going on vs. the 60,000 household survey.
That might be the number that is taking us down right now.
ISM not saving the day here. 51.8 vs. 52 expectation.
I like watching Prices Paid portion of the report down from June:
Prices
ISM's Prices Index indicates manufacturers continued to pay higher prices in July. This is the 17th consecutive month the index has registered higher prices. With July's index at 53 percent, it is 3.5 percentage points lower than June's reading of 56.5 percent. In July, 21 percent of supply executives reported paying higher prices and 15 percent reported paying lower prices, while 64 percent reported that prices were unchanged from the preceding month.
A Prices Index below 46.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with a decrease in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices. The industries reporting paying higher prices in July are: Tobacco; Leather; Rubber & Plastic Products; Wood & Wood Products; Textiles; Primary Metals; Chemicals; Instruments & Photographic Equipment; Miscellaneous*; and Industrial & Commercial Equipment & Computers.
Prices %Higher %Same %Lower Net Index
July 2003 21 64 15 +6 53.0
June 2003 26 61 13 +13 56.5
May 2003 21 61 18 +3 51.5
April 2003 37 53 10 +27 63.5
CAR and TRUCK sales at Noon...
Employment Data for July:
The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.
The reports both measure employment levels, just from different angles. Due to the vastly different size of the survey samples (the establishment survey not only surveys more businesses, but each business employs many individuals), the measures of employment may differ markedly from month to month. The household survey is used only for the unemployment measure - the market focusses primarily on the more comprehensive establishment survey. Together, these two surveys make up the employment report, the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month.
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonfarm payroll employment in July was 129.9 million (-44,000 over
the month). The number of jobs has declined by 486,000 since January. Over
the month, manufacturing and transportation shed jobs, but these losses were
partially offset by gains in administrative services, notably in temporary
help. (See table B-1.)
Manufacturing employment fell by 71,000 in July. Employment in this sector
has declined continuously since July 2000. Most manufacturing industries post-
ed job losses over the month. Within durable goods manufacturing, the largest
employment decline occurred in transportation equipment, where seasonal lay-
offs of auto workers were larger than usual. Employment also decreased in
computer and electronic products (-11,000) and in fabricated metal products
(-8,000). In nondurable goods manufacturing, 9,000 apparel and 7,000 textile
mill jobs were lost over the month.
Transportation and warehousing employment fell by 16,000 in July. Job
losses were concentrated in air transportation, where employment fell by
9,000. This industry has lost 136,000 jobs since its recent peak in March
2001.
Employment continued to decline in wholesale trade; job losses were
widespread throughout the industry. Within retail trade, employment fell
by 12,000 in food stores. Over the year, food stores have shed 60,000
jobs. Within the information sector, employment continued to trend down in
telecommunications and in publishing. Both industries have been losing
jobs for over 2 years. Employment in professional and technical services
declined by 20,000, largely due to an employment loss of 12,000 in computer
systems design and related services.
Employment in administrative and support services rose by 85,000 over
the month. Within its component industries, employment in temporary help
increased for the third consecutive month, adding 42,000 jobs in July.
Employment in this industry has grown by 122,000 since April. Employment
also rose in building and dwelling services (11,000) over the month.
Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector edged up in July
(13,000). Most of this gain took place in accommodations, which added
11,000 jobs.
Financial activities continued to add jobs, but at a slower pace. For
the past 2 months, job gains averaged about 7,000 per month, compared with
16,000 per month from August 2002 to May 2003. Employment growth also slowed
over the past 2 months in the construction sector. Employment in health care
and social assistance was essentially unchanged over the month.
Government employment edged lower in July. This was the fifth consecutive
decline; the number of government jobs has fallen by 115,000 over this period.
Well said Fred. Not that I'm trying to be the site ombudsman (remember when these guys were in vogue?) or anything but every now and then I feel the need to opine on some of these exchanges.
Let's take MLSOFT for example. He and Joe Stocks and others talk about the PPT and AG and such but they never personally attack anyone who has different views so why should they be attacked for the PPT and AG comments? For example, does MLSOFT say to Jerry Olson (sorry Jerry, just an example here) "your PnF calls are bullsh**, this rise in the market is only due to AG and the PPT?" No, MLSOFT doesn't do that. MLSOFT and I would be on completely different ends of the spectrum regarding "God and Country" and "Bush", etc. but I completely respect his opinion and think he has a very even keel way of adding value to this thread - he is similar to Zeev in that fashion.
And Mainehiker, how could you not like this guy? He is funny and definitely adds value. He's no Mark Johnson or Da Cheif who just annoy people to no end by picking fights. So let's lay off him for a simple signature line. In fact he was even thinking of changing it which I hope he doesn't because the range of accepted opinions on this site makes it why we all choose to spend time here.
Back to the market. I think things are going to heat up here very soon one way or the other so we should really be testing our patience with one another!
Maine, this discussion about your signature line is UTTERLY RIDICULOUS. I believe anyone can put whatever they want on their signature line and you guys that are calling this a political post need to find something better to do with your free time.
C'mon, this is just a a waste of everybody's time. And for what it's worth, I like the information that comes from Augieboo, Bearmove, and Mainehiker - you're all valuable posters so please learn to coexist and end this banter.
Surprised GNSS isn't down way more than 7.5% AH.
This guidance is horrible. Expectations for next quarter are $56M in revenue and they are guiding between $44 and $48M.
Margins for this quarter were 42.9% and they are guiding for 36 - 38% for next quarter. They don't give EPS guidance but if you do the math it must be pretty bad on less rev and less margins.
EPS expectation of .12 for this quarter. They do .13 Pro Forma and .04 GAAP.
Rev consensus for this quarter at $54M and they do $53.9M.
TJ, I bet that is what happens. There's no doubt the networks get this data early. The question is how early? Is it the night before or maybe a 1/2 hour before to prepare the graphics like you say.
But if anyone was watching Bloomberg TV this morning they no doubt showed the CC data on that chart 15 minutes early.
Did anyone see Bloomberg TV post the Consumer Confidence chart at 76 at 9:45 AM EST?
I snapped on Bloomberg TV this morning to see what the Consumer Confidence numbers will be and 15 minutes before the Consumer Confidence numbers are supposed to come out they post this green bar chart that had the July bar at 76 but they're talking about an 85 expectation.
I almost traded on this because I thought for sure that was going to be the real number and they posted their chart too early which in fact is what they did. It's not the first time they have done this either so it may be profitable to watch them right before eco data comes out to see if they make another mistake and trade on it?
What is interesting is that means outfits like Bloomberg have this data far earlier than the rest of us. For some reason, that doesn't seeem right.
Shorting AMZN at 100 or YHOO at 250 weren't such bad ideas?
I expect the same for all the Chinese internets, but the mania won't get so out of control for just the reason you mentioned: People have learned their lesson not to hold Yahoo at 250 and watch it go to 10.
NVDA flying AH as well - just the other way.
Here's one that Bernstein may like: NTES announces $16.5M in revenue, up sequentially from $14.2M last quarter sporting a market cap of $1.5B!
Price / Sales of 50.
Is it time to short this one yet?
Isn't the Consumer Confidence number tomorrow Jerry?
Jerry I thought eco numbers are "just noise" and you tune all news out and just follow the PnF charts. Surprised to here you talking fundamentals like eco numbers - why the change of tune if I may?
Bear, suggested entry/exit points for CNXT? Are you in this one? Someone mentioned this one to me last week with a potential move to $12.
Yes, and I forget who downgraded EBAY today but a big change in price target from $116 to $112. Let's see, transaction revenue increases only 3% with a 114 P/E and we see we need to take our price target down only 3% which is still above where we are trading right now!
Yet KLIC price target can go up 140% on no news.
I trade with SCHWAB and I think their new stock ratings have outperformed the S&P in the last year both on the upside and downside, especially stocks they give an F rating (worst) are down much more. They have no other "special" relationships in investment banking with the firms they rate so seem more even keel.
Bear, do you own CNXT? What price do you like it at and stop loss below?