Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
GV...digitech..GV responded to my questions by email rather than by phone call. I did not ask why the RE guy recieved a larger bonus than the CEO but it did not surprise me either. The real estate market has been exceptionally strong so with strong sales it should be generating excellent profits.
Real estate sales are reported on a percentage completion basis so we should see strong revenues from the Pineapple House condo project over the coming quarters even though it won't be completed until 2007. Buyers are required to put a 10% deposit in escrow to hold their units until completion so that should provide strong incentive for buyers to not just walk away from their purchase either.
I also see that the Cramer mistake about GV has simply gone away. They changed the ticker symbol of Goldfield from GV to GFI in their press release. Good way for the booyah boob to make his mistakes go away..Now ya see it, now you don't.
GV- Company did confirm that the roughly $1 mil in mgmt bonuses from the 8K last month were expensed in '05 so there will be no hit in Q1 for them.
It seems to me that when the "B" word is associated with Cramer as the Clown, that would then be appropriate, maybe even factual.
GV...Way to go Cramer! The wall street booyah clown refers to Goldfield today as a gold company. Found the link on the GV summary board, here's an excerpt:
>>>Companies like Goldfields (GV:Amex - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) operate in Venezuela, and if Crystallex gets approval, Cramer believes that Goldfields could be a buyer.<<<
Copper prices to remain high....
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The copper market will be in deficit during 2006 due to continuing supply disruptions with "chronically" tight stocks set to keep copper prices close to current levels through 2006, Macquarie said in a report late Friday.
The bank now forecasts a refined copper shortfall of 50,000 metric tons, down from an expected surplus of just over 200,000 tons at the beginning of the year, Macquarie's analyst Adam Rowley said.
Copper is currently trading close to record highs at $5,445/ton for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange.
Supply disruptions at mines have swung Macquarie's mine production forecast from surplus to deficit for 2006, moving from a 150,000 tons surplus to 150,000 tons deficit since the beginning of the year.
A lower mining rate at Freeport McMoRan's (FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia accounts for 100,000 tons of loss, while problems with pit instability at the Batu Hijau mine will cut 45,000 tons of production.
Lower ore grades at Antofagasta's mine, a strike at Grupo Mexico's (GMEXICO.MX) La Caridad mine and slow ramp up at Birla Australia also add to the supply shortfall, Rowley said.
The copper concentrate market will be in a 180,000-ton deficit and is likely to tighten, already reflected in falling spot treatment and refining charges, Rowley said.
For 2007, the copper market may move into a small surplus of 100,000 tons.
"With supply just not arriving quickly enough, it is increasingly looking as though it will take a severe downturn in economic growth and copper demand growth to tip the market into surplus," Rowley said.
EZM- New research report out today from TD WATERHOUSE. New target price of $3C. Note that 50c EPS is estimated for next year and that assumes only a $1.75 copper price.
............
April 3, 2006
Action Notes Equity Research
11 of 32
Company Profile
EuroZinc is a Canadian-listed mining company that currently owns two base metal
mines in southern Portugal. The company operates the Neves Corvo copper mine and
owns the currently sidelined Aljustrel zinc mine. Zinc production is expected to
commence in H2/06 at Neves and in 2007 at Aljustrel.
Please see the final pages of this
document for important
disclosure information.
EuroZinc Mining Corp.
(EZM-T) C$2.03
Cash flow to surge on revised metal price outlook
Event
We are increasing our target price for EuroZinc to C$3.00 (from C$2.25) in
light of our revisions to our copper and zinc metal price forecasts and the
resultant cash generating ability of the company
Impact
Positive. With its current copper production and the commencement of zinc
production in H2/06 EuroZinc is ideally positioned from the more robust
outlook for copper and zinc prices now forecasted over the next couple of
years. In addition, with its strong balance and growth potential we also
believe EuroZinc could be viewed as a takeover candidate. As such EuroZinc
remains one of our favored names in the sector. We maintain our BUY
recommendation and we are increasing our target price to C$3.00 at this time.
Details
In light of the higher than expected metal prices seen in Q1/06 for zinc and
copper we have upgraded our commodity price forecasts as outlined in our
industry report released today and noted in exhibit 1
Exhibit 1: Key Metal Price Forecast Changes
Old New Old New Old New
Zinc (US$/lb) $0.80 $1.12 $0.85 $1.20 $10.65 $0.90
Copper (US$/lb) $1.80 $2.13 $1.50 $1.75 $1.20 $1.35
2006 2007 2008
Source: TD Newcrest Estimates
The higher than expected metal prices can be attributed to stronger than
anticipated demand, ongoing supply problems, low and declining inventory
levels and a lack of new supply being delivered into the market. Given this
environment we do not believe that metal prices are likely to decline
significantly over the coming year and in the case of zinc the fundamentals
continue to suggest higher metals prices are possible for 2007 based upon
continued supply woes, inventory levels approaching critical levels and the
industries inability to rapidly activate significant new sources of supply in the
next few years. While our forecasts remain below current spot prices and
could be viewed as conservative, they are at the high end of the consensus
range and as such, we anticipate further update revision in the months to
Metals & Minerals
Recommendation: BUY
Unchanged
12-Month Target Price: C$3.00↑
Prior: C$2.25
12-Month Total Return: 47.8%
Market Data (C$)
Current Price $2.03
52-Wk Range $0.57-$2.10
Mkt Cap (f.d.)($mm) $1,157.1
Dividend per Share $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.0%
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (3mths) 5,302,916
Financial Data (C$)
Fiscal Y-E December
Shares O/S (f.d.)(mm) 570.0
Float Shares (mm) 544.0
Net Debt ($mm) $10.0
NAVPS (current)(f.d.) $2.13
Estimates (US$)
Year 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E
EPS (f.d.) 0.09 0.23 0.34 0.50
EPS (f.d.)(old) 0.09 0.23 0.25 0.35
CFPS (f.d.) 0.13 0.28 0.39 0.55
CFPS (f.d.)(old) 0.13 0.28 0.30 0.40
Valuations
Year 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E
P/E (f.d.) 19.3x 7.6x 5.1x 3.5x
P/CFPS (f.d.) 13.4x 6.2x 4.5x 3.2x
Supplemental Data (US$)
Year 2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E
Copper ($/lb) 1.30 1.67 2.13 1.75
Zinc ($/lb) .48 .60 1.11 1.20
Copper -MM lbs 208 203 230 230
Zinc - MM lbs NA NA 25 210
All figures in US$, unless otherwise specified.
Cliff Hale-Sanders, CFA
Action Notes April 3, 2006
Equity Research 12 of 32
come.
With the Neves Corvo mine positioned to produce in excess of 200 million pounds of copper, the
commencement of zinc production in the H2/06 at Neves and the likely restart of the Aljustrel zinc mine in
2007 (a positive development decision is expected in the near future) EuroZinc can be viewed as being in the
“sweet spot” with respect to realizing extremely high metals prices at a time when it is growing its production
volumes. This should translate into robust cash flows for the next two years at least, increasing the company’s
financial flexibility from which it can continue to grow.
Earnings Revision: In light of our revised metal price forecasts we have undertaken a significant revision to
our earnings and cash flow estimates. Our new EPS and CFPS estimates are $0.34/$0.39 and $0.50/$0.55, up
from $0.25/$0.30 and $0.35/$0.40, respectively. We would note that these estimates are based upon our
revised zinc and copper price forecasts, which remain below current spot prices and could price to be
conservative if price levels remain near current levels.
While we are bullish on the outlook for both metal and equity prices we do caution investors that the Spring
period has historically been subject to a correction in prices after a robust October to march period. That said,
given the strong underlying fundamentals and the anticipated strong Q1/06 results for the industry we would
expect any pullback to be relatively short lived if it occurs at all and would view it as a buying opportunity.
Valuation and Justification of Target Price
We are raising our target price to C$3.00 from C$2.25. Our target price increase reflects our positive outlook
for the zinc industry and increased confidence in the timing and development of the Neves Corvo and Aljustrel
mines. We use a 5.5 times multiple to our blended 2006 and 2007 CFPS to derive our target price of C$3.00.
This remains at a small discount to the group average multiple of 6 times due to the major shareholder
overhang. Our target price also reflects a 1.4X multiple to our NAV of C$2.13 (up from C$1.67) which is in
line with the current peer group average. Despite our positive outlook for zinc prices, which could warrant a
more premium valuation approach due to the scarcity of zinc related equities, we have tried to remain
conservative pending further details on the final development plans and costs for the Neves Corvo zinc
program and the Aljustrel mine. Our NAV is calculated using a 10% discount rate and long-term copper and
zinc prices of US$0.95/lb and US$0.50/lb, respectively.
Key Risks to Target Price
The key risks to our target price are actual commodity prices relative to our forecasts, ongoing development
risks associated with the Neves zinc zone and the Aljustrel project, higher than expected capital costs,
unforeseen operating disruptions and future exploration results
Investment Conclusion
While we remain somewhat cautious in the short term due to the recent and rapid price appreciation of most
base metal related equities as we enter what has historically been a period of seasonal weakness, over the
longer term we continue to believe EuroZinc is positioned to generate robust returns due to its solid operating
base, strong forecast growth profile, rising exposure to zinc and its strong balance sheet. We are maintaining
our BUY recommendation and increasing our target price to C$3.00 from C$2.25.
April 3, 2006
GV... researcher, I'm thinking that the bonuses were expensed in Q4 since no one knows what annual profits and the stock price would be until year end. As I recall, most of the CEO's bonus was based on stock price appreciation over the year and he also recieved the largest bonus. Also Accounts payable and accrued liabilities grew from about $2.5 Mil to $4 Mil in Q4, which is where the bonuses are shown ( it appears). At any rate, I wanted to confirm it with management. I'll try again next week when I return.
GV-Has anyone talked to management of this PSL2 favorite? I have tried to reach a company official for the last 3 days. First, I wanted to confirm that the company had indeed expensed the bonuses in Q4 of last year as hweb had noted previously. I also had a couple of accounting items I wanted to discuss with them as well.
I emailed investor relations 3 days ago and followed that up with phone calls both yesterday and today. I also asked to talk to the CFO, but was told that only investor relations can talk to stockholders and the CFO was out all week anyway. I was then told that IR is basically one person and I asked who that person was but was told by the gal who answers the phone that she cannot give out that information (company rules). I said it seems very odd that the person in charge of investor relations and communications keeps his/her name a secret. She was apologetic and said that IR endeavors to return all investor phone calls within a week. That seems like an awfully long time to me.
I'm off to Vegas tomorrow morning for a few days to try my luck in the green felt jungle but I'm curious if anyone has talked to management lately. Maybe someone else has had better luck than I have with them.
NOS, I agree with Bobwins that you need to lose that screenname. As for a good book about analyzing stocks, I would recommend a book by Domash titled " Fire Your Stock Analyst" which is all about analyzing stocks on your own. From good websites to understanding and analyzing a company's financial statements and management, it has lots of good information. Good luck.
Here's a link to the book from Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0132260387/qid=1143773038/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-0834542-8028744?s=b...
GV: I was surprised that it sold off today as well but Skillz would probably say it needs to fill the gap.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=gv&time=9&freq=1
Trade CTON for PHPG at the close in my PSL2 account. Thanks.
RICK.. Had a big sell-off today. Some say it was because of an article that suggested the company's stock price may have been influenced by organized crime. But I suspect it was more because of another article about the NYSE and Nasdaq talking about new rules that would no longer allow business meetings at strip clubs. Several women have sued Wall Street firms because they were not invited to those meetings so I guess they feel that they must have been discriminated against. Some have already won substantial claims. I can see a hammer falling.
I decided to sell RICK today since their flagship strip club is on Wall street. I sure can't complain about a 50% gain in a little over two months. Nice to actually make money on attractive women for a change too.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20060323/bs_usatoday/shouldbusinessexecsmeetatstripclubs
VPHM.. Sam, There is plenty of incentive for generic competition as VPHM currently enjoys huge profit margins on their Vancocin drug. In Q3 for example, they earned $35 mil in revenue with only $5 mil in manufacting costs. I'm sure the generics are very aware that demand continues to grow in spite of substantial price increases for Vancocin. Also VPHM is capitalizing the acquisition cost of Vancocin over 25 years. That seems like a very long time considering that generic competition will be around within a few years.
SLGD- Took my losses in this one. I was really thrown off by the Chairman's purchase of 10K shares at .975 just a little over a month ago. I guess we aren't the only ones who were surprised at the final numbers.
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/80/439.html
What I don't like about VPHM is that they are capitalizing their acquisition costs for Vancocin over a 25 year period. There is no real competition to the drug now but as demand continues to grow for it, I can't imagine that competition won't be a factor within much less than 25 years. Also there is no longer any patent protection on Vancocin. They are looking for other products but for now anyway this is basically a one-show pony in terms of revs and profits. It was a great ride up last year....good luck with this one going forward.
CFK- The way the stock has been acting, it seems like everyone in Canada must have walked away from their drilling rigs and gone home. But the truth is that everyone is busier than ever according to this latest news report from nickles.com, the leading news-source for the Canadian OG drilling industry:
Rig Count May Have Peaked This Week At 757 Active
By Amanda McLane
This week’s survey found 757 active rigs across western and northern Canada, likely this winter’s peak level if the patterns of previous years are followed, according to Nickle’s Rig Locator records.
Achieving a utilization rate of 96% for both Northern and Western Canada reveals the significant growth in the industry this year with a 15% percentage point increase from the first week in March 2005 when 81% (590 out of 732) rigs were active. That means a full 167 more rigs are at work this week than a year ago.
The top operator this week is still EnCana Corporation which continues to lead with 73 rigs at work. Following close behind is Canadian Natural Resources Limited with 58 rigs and Burlington Resources Canada with 48 rigs on the go.
In Alberta 274 rigs were working on development locations on wells with a licensed location while 256 rigs were drilling or getting ready to drill exploration prospects, with a considerable interest in the Wapiti area (15 rigs).
Out of the 47 active wells in Saskatchewan, 34 are working on development holes and 13 are exploring for new deposits. Within the 47 active holes, 39 are chasing oil.
In Manitoba this week eight active rigs are working on five development locations and three are chasing new prospects. All eight active wells are searching for oil.
The service rig industry activity is also stable this week with 88% of the fleet at work --852 active rigs out of the 969 available. Last year at this time 79% of the available service rigs were working in a fleet size of 912.
SLGD... Niles, I don't know about the amex, but SLGD was listed on the NYSE back in '96, and on the nasdaq before that. I'm not sure but I would guess they were delisted due to too low of a stock price. I also like this one, and am hoping for some good numbers this qrtr. While the stock hasn't gone up that much, it certainly has done quite well compared to many of late just by holding its own.
TCHC- It had a maximum exposure to hurricanes of $10 million per event in 2004 with their reinsurers picking up a maximum of $48 million in losses. 4 large hurricanes hit FL that year which caused $50 Mil in net losses to TCHC. Last year, their exposure was reduced to $3 million per hurricane event before their reinsurance kicked in. It sounds like they will have about the same exposure for the coming year.
What is confusing to me on their latest PR is the huge increase in "Change in Prepaid Reinsurance Premiums". That was $8mil or about 10X what it was a year ago. It seems that they are counting premiums that will go to the reinsurers as revenues but then I don't see a corresponding liability for that. No 10K is out yet, but does someone see what they are doing? UVIH handles it differently as well. They have a similiar reinsurance program but they only show net premiums left after reinsurance premiums as revenue on their income statement.
It seems to me that when I buy a stock, I'm in for one "bagful". If I double my money, that's a two bagger, a triple would be a three bagger and so on. A ten bagger would find my stock worth 10 times what I bought in for.
It's all in the semantics, I guess.
Wade.. RE: CFK, Thanks for sharing your conversation with the CFO of CFK. It does help to explain the recent weakness in the stock. Note though, that the futures market predicts continued high prices for NG. In fact, Feb 07 nat gas futures are still well over $10. Also I understand that recovery of the oil from the Canadian oilsands requires a large amount of natgas for heat. That alone could bring substantial new demand in Canada. I'll keep my CFK shares.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/NG.html
EZM- Annual filing is now posted on their website.
I see nearly $40 million in realized and unrealized losses against their earnings that was not on the last quarterly earnings statement. That is related to options and hedges that they were required to take on by their lenders. After taxes, that reduced earnings by nearly 6c/share for Q4. EZM would have earned nearly 11c (Canadian) in Q4 vs. the 5c reported without those losses. Shows the earnings power here. Just wait till the zinc mine is going full gear by next year.
CTON...Backlog #s are certainly disappointing although I have seen about $2 million in additional sales in February alone based on the company's updates of its website. That will not be reported until next quarter.
CTON... 9.4c earned last Q is even better than I expected and we will probably also see a PR out later today.
ASPN.. OG stocks should ultimately be priced based on the discounted value of the oil/gas is still in the ground. This would be the market value less the cost of extracting it from the ground including overhead and taxes. One way to look at the estimated value is to see what the PV10 value is. This is found in the companys 10K filings.
With ASPN, their PV10 after tax present discounted value is only $5.7Mil (based on june 30 prices). This is only a small fraction of their current market cap of $28 Mil. On the other hand, CHK has a PV10 of $22.9 Billion which is over twice their current market cap of $10.2 Billion. That is why I own CHK, not ASPN.
AMEX Standards... As the AMEX indicates, they are flexible when it comes to share price minimums. Consider one of this board's recent popular picks; EZM. EZM was just listed there a couple of months ago at $1.10 or so, yet the amex standard says $2-$3 is the minimum.
Copper stocks-EZM, nxg, tgb, nto etc. Here's a newslink from Bloomberg. Interesting comments that China is the world's largest consumer and their usage had dropped the first half of the month while they celebrated their Chinese New Year (Jan 29-Feb13). Also the world's second largest copper mine has had to shut down due to protestors. We could see further strength in copper prices and mining stock prices
>>A shortfall in copper supplies has forced consumers to tap inventory. Stockpiles of copper monitored by the LME dropped for a first day in three, losing 175 tons, or 0.2 percent, to 109,225 tons, the LME said today. That's equal to less than three days of global consumption.
In China, the world's largest copper consumer, stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 15 percent to a three-week low of 56,154 tons, the exchange said today. Copper consumption in China typically peaks between February and May as processors increase purchases after the Chinese New Year break to replenish stockpiles.
Mine Stoppage
A stoppage at Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Inc.'s Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, continued for a third day as protestors blocked a road to the mine in Papua, Indonesia. The Indonesian government is sending the military to guard the mine, Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro told reporters in Jakarta today.
A prolonged disruption at the mine, which produces about 4 percent of the world's copper, may buoy prices. Production losses at the mine in 2003 because of two landslides resulted in global output lagging demand that year. <<
CHK- NG producer earned $1.11 last quarter vs. 52c last year. Excluding hedge gains they still earned 84c (vs 79c anal-yst estimates). PV10 after tax reserve value more than doubled to $22.9 Billion vs only a $10billion market cap. $Millions of insider buys lately too. Should be a good day tomorrow and hopefully it will help to raise the tide of many NG stocks.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060223/dath043.html?.v=32
Len, Yes, you could be right. Q1 seems to be a weak quarter for FL prices. Q1-2004 prices dropped from Q4-2003 and then shot up again. Still, that's a hard offer to resist especially at 10 to 1 odds in my favor. But, I wouldn't want to feel like I was taking advantage of you either. I don't believe that a FL bust is just beginning either as you apparently do. So how's this:
I'll give you even money odds that FL. average Residential Real Estate prices will be higher in Q2 of 2006, than they were in Q4 of 2005. That just moves it back one quarter, and gives you much better odds. How about $50?
While we're at it, I'll also bet you $20 that my day and time in the WAG 10 millionth post contest is closer than yours. Even money again.
CTON and FL real estate...Len, I do understand numbers, so how about instead of looking at your imaginary widget numbers, lets look at some real numbers in regards to the FL real estate market.
These numbers are average quarterly real estate sale prices for the state of Florida over the last two years. They come from the Florida Realtors Assoc. at
http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm
2003Q4 $169,200
2004Q1 $163,800
2004Q2 $181,300
2004Q3 $190,800
2004Q4 $191,300
2005Q1 $206,200
2005Q2 $232,700
2005Q3 $248,866
2005Q4 $246,100
Yes, prices did stabilize in the last half of the year 2005, but if you look at 2004, the same thing happened and then it was back to the races in Q1 and Q2 of 05. Prices also would have been higher in Q4 rather than Q3 except that July brought up the average price for Q3, while October brought the average down for Q4. At any rate, a 1% decline in prices from Q3 to Q4 is insignificant and could easily be attributed to damaged properties sold "as is" after last summer's hurricanes. Bottom line: There is no bubble that I can see in Florida. Price increases have merely slowed down to a more sustainable rate, compared to earlier this year. There is no need to sell CTON and GV and then run to the cold plains of Kansas that I can see.
CTON and FL RE prices. Len, I will agree that the market cannot maintain a 43% annual increase in prices. But it also seems to me that a slowdown from an overheated market to a more normal market is a good thing, not a bad thing.
Here's another recent article from the Orlando business journal (notice that the Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay areas led the state in sales in Q4. That is where GV operates and just north of CTON's market area):
>>Orlando home prices soar 43% in 4Q
Even with higher mortgage rates and a lull in economic growth, existing single-family homes in Florida had a median sales price of $246,300 for fourth-quarter 2005, an increase of 29 percent over the year-ago period, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.
Leading the pack was Fort Myers-Cape Coral, which saw median sales prices rise 50 percent to $309,300 for the fourth quarter of 2005. The Orlando metropolitan statistical area posted the second-highest median sales price, up 43 percent over the year-ago quarter at $254,800.
In addition, a total of 50,889 existing single-family homes sold statewide during the three-month period, a 7 percent drop from the 54,890 homes sold during the same quarter in 2004. Sales showed only a slight drop in the Orlando area, with 8,074 sold in fourth-quarter 2005 compared with 8,105 a year ago. Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay led the state in sales, up 28 percent at 1,512 compared with 1,185 in fourth-quarter 2004.
FAR says home sales traditionally ease during the fourth quarter as a result of holidays, cooler weather and other influences. The decline in existing single-family home sales for fourth-quarter 2005 was consistent with both rising mortgage rates over that period and a dramatic pause in overall U.S. growth, according to Dr. David Scott, executive director of the Dr. Phillips Institute for the Study of American Business Activity and professor of finance at the University of Central Florida .
Scott predicts that double-digit growth rates in sales and prices will cease for the time being and more closely track the performance of the economy. <<
Len re CTON,
Sales and closings are two different things with CTON. Closings trailed sales by seven homes in Q2 and 4 more homes in Q3. If closings just catch up with old sales in Q4 they will report an outstanding quarter!. But I also think they will show a continued strong backlog into 06. I also see no sign of any sale slowdown for them based on what I have seen.
For whatever reason, people are moving to warm and sunny places like Vero Beach. On the other hand, I don't know of anyone who wants to move to places like say...hmmm..Kansas when they retire. Yes Florida has the risk of hurricanes but Kansas has tornadoes, miserably hot summers and frigid winters (the norm). A growing shortfall of lots due to growth and environmental restrictions in areas like Vero Beach will likely bring a continued increase in lot and real estate prices, not a bust as you predict.
CTON- The attraction is in the 10Qs. Someone apparently forgot to tell the people buying their homes that the RE market softened based on the increase in the number of people ordering CTON homes lately.
In Q1, CTON sold one home, in Q2 they sold 9 homes and in Q3, they sold 10 homes. Those orders are not counted as sales until the homes are built and title is transferred to the buyer. Last quarter, the company earned 4c (before non-recurring items) when they delivered 6 homes. That left them with a backlog of 15 homes to be delivered. I'll guess they closed anywhere from 6-8 homes last quarter which will translate to good numbers. New sales are also continuing at a good clip as well. It appears from recent changes in their website siteplans that 3 more homes were ordered in the last 3 weeks alone. Yes, they also have a tough comp from Q4 a year ago when they earned 4c. But I think they will beat that number with 5-7c. We shall see.
EZM- I also am not surprised to see the drop in EZM. Not because a gap needed to be filled but rather because of the volatility in copper prices lately, including a drop again today. Figure out where the metal is going to go from here and odds are that EZM will roughly track it.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
Len's cold house and GV..What I wonder is why if Lentinman feels that GV is not a good enough stock for him to own in his own account, then why does he keep those GV shares in his daughter's account? Doesn't the poor girl suffer enough without the furnace on in his house??
UNT reported great numbers which should lead to an increase in forward EPS estimates soon. Forward PE is 9 now, should drop to maybe 7. Demand for drilling and exploration will only increase which should only help biz for companies like UNT and CFK. Article below discusses the "exploration treadmill" North America is on which means the number of NG wells drilled needs to continue to increase just to keep supplies constant.
The University of Calgary's Geology Department played host to a presentation given by Dave Hughes, an employee of Natural Resources Canada : "The Coming Energy Sustainability Crisis: Alternatives to Oil, Implications of Demand Growth and the Way Forward." A look at global primary energy growth showed that over the past four decades, growth has been 165%. Overall, natural gas has been the fastest growing fuel source in percentage terms at 283% since 1965. In most recent years, from 2001 to 2004, the fastest growing fuel source has been coal.
North America peaked in terms of conventional natural gas production in 2001-2002, leading to dramatic increases in prices for natural gas and natural gas-dependent products, such as fertilizers and plastics. North America is now on what Hughes calls an "exploration treadmill," meaning that the number of wells drilled must be continually increased in order to hold production steady. Hughes also touched on Liquefied Natural Gas imports, coal bed methane, and the Mackenzie Valley pipeline. His conclusion was that it is going to be extremely challenging, perhaps even impossible, to keep North American production at a level plateau in the years ahead. Canada, for example, has 8.1 years left in natural gas reserves.
The one billion people in the industrialized world consume 60% more energy than the five billion in the developing nations which, however, are growing their consumption at much higher rates, as well as doubling their populations since the 1960s. Both China and India's total energy consumption have grown 600% in that time; Indonesia's total energy growth was 1,400%.
At the end of the presentation, Hughes stated that there is no question that the world will eventually become energy sustainable. The only question is how that transition will occur. The importance of conservation and efficiency was also stressed, along with the savings that will result from "demand destruction". As talks like this one become more common around the world, less and less people will be able to state truthfully that they had no idea about the impending energy crisis. Now comes the toughest part: actually doing something about it.
On the other hand, EZM is on this spreadsheet from Kitco, but I don't see TGB or BWLRF.
Note that EZM has the lowest PE of any of the stocks listed.
http://www.kitcometals.com/commentaries/Matlack/feb132006.html
$80+ oil coming this year?- Bloomberg article predicting $80 oil later this year driven by China demand. Could hit near $100 with another bad hurricane season in USA:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=avVV_bnPDsqU&refer=us
Gilead, Re: CTON,
I posted recently about CTON recently in case you missed it (#35700). I followed their 10Q's quarter by quarter and "backlog" can only mean new contracts signed with customers but not yet completed and closed with title transferred. I don't see how the fact that they have the same number of sites available for sale can be any more than a coincidence but it would certainly not hurt to doublecheck with the company. Based on their siteplans on their website, there is also another homesite that changed to sold in the last week (Lot 96 at Pointe West). So, their website indicates that 3 lots have changed from "for sale" to sold in the last 3 weeks. It appears that the Real Estate market is still alive and well in Vero Beach FL.
In their last 10K, they indicated that the construction period ranges between 120 and 300 days depending on the complexity of the home. One also needs to allow time to obtain permits before starting construction which probably runs about 30-60 days.
Thanks for the link to the rainfall stats in their area. I noticed that typically it rains hard for a day or two and then they have several days with little or no precip. In October, the wettest month that you noted, two/thirds of that rain fell in one day (maybe that was the day the hurricane blew through). Hopefully that wouldn't cause too many construction delays.
OT- I see you show blackjack as one of your hobbies on your profile along with comments about managing risks to your advantage. I'll wager you are a card-counter. I've been counting cards myself for years using Wong's halves count although I have slowed down myself as several of my favorite casinos with good games have told me no more blackjack. I suspect that there are more VMers who also count cards as both endeavors are similiar in respect that it helps to be analytical and quick with numbers. Also the players in both are willing to take rather substantial risks in the quest for superior returns. The stock market is closed today, so maybe I'll venture out and see if I can find a good 21 game somewhere.
Len's wife probably kicked him out of bed to go hook up his gas furnace. And Len got sidetracked ...again.... Len should know its time to fire the furnace up when the water in his coffeepot turns to ice. It's all of 6 degrees in KC this morning. BRRRR
Enter my wag for: 3/4 @ 11:42 AM.
Thanks