Long on AVXL since 2011. Loaded up on AVXL in early spring 2015.
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SLB chart, updated EOD 13Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying long Put options or selling short Call options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 10Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
reen candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 9Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 8Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
I am glad to hear it, and we are together in spirit. There is more than one Facebook group, but the one I am referring to has members whose share count ranges from very small to very large, and our respect for each other is not based on share count.
In our Facebook group we are not anonymous to each other, we have become familiar with each other, and have developed justifications to trust each other. We get to know the others pretty well, including their families, even if some of us like me are very forgetful.
There is evidence of what may reasonably be defined as extremely loyal retail, but that does not mean the evidence is publicly available. There is a private Facebook group that fits that definition, and as a group we own a significant percentage of Anavex.
Our shares are theoretically part of the float, but they are not part of the real float, because they are not for sale as prices fluctuate up and down. We are not traders, and we are in for years.
It is likely there are other long-term holders who are not part of this particular Facebook group.
SLB chart, updated EOD 7Mar2017, lowest rate ever for AVXL on NASDAQ, it appears based on the graph. The exact rate is 29.85% at End of Day.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
If the SLB rate goes over 125%, that will indicate maximum shorting.
If maximum shorting occurs after major bad news, that is normal.
If maximum shorting occurs shortly before news is scheduled to be presented, that indicates someone with a lot of money is planning to drive the price down on the news, regardless of whether the news is good or bad, and probably through coordinated high-frequency trading and a negative media campaign.
The SLB rate of AVXL has gone up to almost 100% without apparent negative impact on the price per share, and indicates near-maximum shorting, but still less than maximum.
That is my best understanding. I do not know how reliable that understanding is, so I share everything I know and think and let those of you with sharper minds do your own analysis.
SLB chart, updated EOD 6Mar2017, no significant change from last post, plus a daily chart of recent days.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 3Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
Sample SLB rates: Facebook, .25%; Biogen, .25%; Microsoft, .25% (Note the decimal place: FB, BIIB, & MSFT are a quarter of 1%, not 25%); Axovant, 1.14%; Neurotrope, 119.3% (it was only a few percent until mid January).
SLB chart, updated EOD 2Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
Green candle = closing price higher than open; Red candle = closing price lower than open.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 1Mar2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
Not at $15 due to:
1. It's start on the pink sheets.
2. The first management team running out of operating funds. (Pre-Dr. Missling)
3. It's prior Short & Distort attacks scaring off headline/twit investors who don't even know what due diligence is.
All of which is irrelevant in the long-term. When FDA approval is granted, AVXL becomes a life-saver for patients and a gold-mine for early investors.
SLB chart, updated EOD 28Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 27Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 24Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
My understanding: There is no legal definition of phase 1, 2, or 3, and how the terms are used in the industry are a little soft, but the general concept is phase 1 clinical trials use healthy subjects to determine the safety of the drug candidate, phase 2 is a relatively small-scale test on subjects with the target indication (disease) to see if there is any sign of efficacy, and phase 3 is a large-scale trial to determine if efficacy is better than placebo. Phase 4 trials are performed after a drug is on the market, sometimes in lieu of phase 3.
2 FB groups, one for all investors, one for longs-only. basparks79 is referring to the longs-only group.
Thanks. It's hard to tell. I had slowly degrading Mild Cognitive Impairment for years before the encephalitis. I certainly recovered a lot after the encephalitis turned me into a basket case, but now I can't tell which remaining damage is from which cause. I don't get frequent objective metrics, and because of memory problems I can't be sure, but I have a notion my memory and confusion from MCI are still on a very slow downward trend. My wife thinks I am stable.
I set trailing stop-losses years ago as a dead-man switch on my investments (no biotechs), and alerts set to trigger in plenty of time to intervene before a stop-loss would be executed so I could make a careful evaluation and informed decision. If things went well, my trailing stop-losses would never be used. Is that unsophisticated?
When I was hit by encephalitis, it was severe, and for months I was unaware of things like my investments. Awareness of things returned very slowly. By the time I rediscovered my investments, all the trailing stop-loss orders had been executed, and had locked in substantial profits. Most of those stocks declined significantly afterward, so my trailing stop-loss orders locked in major gains I would have lost otherwise.
I do not have stop-loss orders of any kind on AVXL because I do not care about downturns while waiting for eventual FDA approval.
Interactive Brokers sets the short-lending interest rates based on supply vs. demand for each stock, but they do not publish their formula or methodology. IB splits the interest revenue 50-50, keeping half and sending half to the account that lends the shares (or to the brokerage that represents the account, if it is not an IB account), so IB profits from short-lending.
What prevents them from setting the interest rate arbitrarily high is demand. If they set it way too high for the current level of demand, no one will borrow the shares, and 50% of nothing is nothing. If they set the rates a little too high, they will get some short-selling, but not as much as they would with a lower rate. Therefore, they try to set the interest rate at a level that balances both supply and demand, and provides the largest possible profit.
The only value I know of in watching this SLB rate is when it skyrockets in a relatively short period of time, which appears to indicate a large increase in short-selling. The next-best indicator I know of for shorting is the reporting of the actual quantities of shares sold short, but that is only reported twice per month, and with a reporting lag time of about 2 weeks, making it very untimely.
I agree with you that the rate is currently about as low as it has ever been for AVXL since the uplisting to NASDAQ.
SLB chart, updated EOD 23Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
what is ftr
SLB chart, updated EOD 22Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 21Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Option volume and options Open Interest is included. Buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB chart, updated EOD 17Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not skyrocket, a Short & Distort attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Put option volume is included because buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB charts, updated EOD 16Feb2017
There was no significant change in SLB fee rates on Thursday, indicating the day's pullback was not due to short selling. First is a an update of the weekly chart I shared yesterday, then is a daily chart to zoom in on the most recent SLB fee rates and Put options.
The daily chart shows the SLB fee rate almost hit 100% at the end of Dec, without having a major impact on the price per share. The SLB fee rate and a big drop in price per share only seems to have occurred when the SLB rate went much higher than 100%. Similarly, a spike of 3,000 Put contracts did not seem to have an impact on price per share. Put contracts are used for purposes other than substituting for shorting, with a major one being used as insurance for a long position in case the price drops, which might have been used by Park West as part of their strategy when buying a 5+% long position.
Thanks, I'm doing everything I can to keep my brain from getting worse and I am hoping A2-73 can help me recover. Daily mental exercise is part of my regimen, and now this will be part of my mental exercise. When I am alone and quiet, I can think and write reasonably well for short periods. Under other circumstances, I cannot think or write well. At all times, I cannot communicate well verbally or behave normally, and I have serious confusion and memory issues. I will remember none of this within a few days, but I have my computer set up to remind me to post the chart every afternoon. If I do that long enough, it is likely to slowly make it into my long term memory. Sights and sounds can quickly make it impossible for me to think straight and sap my energy amazingly fast, but my wife moved us to a quiet house in a quiet community.
Tom, I think you will have to figure those things out without me. My analytical skills are seriously diminished most of the time. I only discovered IB's SLB historical graph within the last week or three. Before that, I could only find current data and I randomly checked it and put it in a spreadsheet. My spreadsheet has many gaps and inconsistent periods.
One thing in my spreadsheet that it does not show on the graph is a statement from the IB current-SLB window that states "There are at least X shares available to sell short." I recorded many of those in my spreadsheet when I recorded the fee rate, date, time, and price per share. I used to pay attention mostly to that, but it turns out it is the fee rate that reflects supply and demand far better than the minimum number available. The only correlation I have seen between fee rate and shares available is that when the fee rate goes above 100%, the shares available goes to zero and stays there. The shares available have gone to zero at lower fee rates, though, but didn't stay there long. Many things can affect how many shares are available, and when, based around which accounts are buying and selling, and whether their holdings are available to be lent. So shares available going to zero during lower fee rates may not be due to shorting, but due to shares that were available being traded to an account that does not lend, or into limbo until the official transaction settlement occurs, etc.
I think the only thing I think I have figured out on my own is an apparent correlation to fee rates rising rapidly to well over 100% and the shorting of every share available. That has happened two times, and I strongly suspect both of them were criminal Short & Distort attacks.
The lowest SLB rate I have in my spreadsheet is 37.04% from 23Sep2016. Right now it is at 38.17%. It varied significantly without apparently correlation to the price except when it went well over 100%, and it may be important that it went from relatively low to very high very quickly. The highest I have in my spreadsheet was 175% on 11Nov2015. I am only intending to cite 100% as an area, not a hard threshold.
I wish I could find, download, and share the raw data behind their graph, but if it is available, I have not found it.
I don't think the SLB rate can predict when normal shorting might occur, which should be whenever a consensus forms that a peak has been reached.
I think it's best significance may be when the rate skyrockets prior to a scheduled news event, before anyone knows whether the news is good or bad. That indicates maximum shorting when the forthcoming news might be great, so the only reason I can think of for deep pockets to do that is if they know a negative media campaign is going to be launched after the news comes out, even if the news is good. That, coupled with fast-algo downward market manipulation, seems to be a classic Short & Distort.
The only source of historical SLB fee rate data I know of is Interactive Brokers. I no longer use a phone, only a laptop computer. Installed on it is a trading workstation program written by IB. I log in with a read-only account. There is a link I used to click to get the exact current fee rate but not historical data and I used to record that in a spreadsheet, but my effort was random and infrequent. Sometime somewhat recently I discovered an option in the program's charting tool and it turned on the SLB fee rate chart. I talking things over with my wife, and I am going to try to post an updated chart after the end of every trading day. That will give me a way to have something useful to do, and I hope one post per day will not annoy anyone too much. I thought of one per day at the end of the day because if I knew this data existed and I didn't have access to it, I would like to see it regularly to reassure me that it wasn't going up.
I may post the SLB rates more frequently, even when there are no significant changes, because some people might be anxious if they can't see it. The lack of a post could be because there was no significant change, or because I forgot to check and post even though there was a change. I don't want to cluster up the forum with unwanted posts, but once a day or less ought to be easy for people to ignore if they want to. Trying to do it at the end of every trading day might help me by giving me something useful to do.
I think the kind of thinking you describe may be why I decided to share it. I cannot trust myself to make trading decisions any more no matter what, so my family hid my login authentication device and we will hold my shares of AVXL through all pullbacks, but I will continue to try to pay attention to this and share it for those who don't have IB accounts. The short & distort attacks were painful, but if we can spot them while they are being prepped, it may enable investors like you to divest in a timely manner. Perhaps that may blunt the effect of an attack.
SLB chart, updated EOD 15Feb2017, no significant change from last post.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share that is legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest fees on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
This chart shows weekly candles dating back to NASDAQ uplisting.
The last candlestick is only for the part of the week that has transpired so far.
The Golden Cross is based on the most common formula which uses 200 & 50-day simple moving averages.
Put option volume is included because buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling.
The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
I think Xena is right that the SLB data I posted is proprietary to Interactive Brokers. Anyone can open an account with at least $10K in assets, I think. For everyone else, I will be happy to post updates when there is a change, as long as I am able to remember to check and report. My wife thinks I am stable, so hopefully I will continue. With the fairly rapid rise the past couple of weeks, the SLB fee rates have been the thing I think about more than anything else and hopefully will stay that way while the fast rise continues. There was no significant change on Tuesday.
It is counter to the evidence I would expect if a major Short & Distort attack were imminent.
Here is an updated SLB rate chart. I have added Put option volume since buying Put options can act as a substitute for short-selling. Also, I finally figured out how to get the chart to show all the weeks back to the NASDAQ uplisting in one chart. The last candlestick is only for Monday because that's the only part of the week that has transpired so far. The current SLB rate is 38.8%, about as low as it's ever been on NASDAQ. This data is from Interactive Brokers, and they don't have access to all data, but they have access to more data than any other broker. IB was created by brokers, for brokers, and they are used for various purposes by most retail brokers and are the primary trading system for most U.S. funds, although they also welcome individual investors. The top of the SLB graph is actually clipped, the top line is 125%, and twice it went way above that.
SLB Rates indicate a recent decline in shorting, reducing incentive to push the price down.