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T—thanks for sharing.
A
Really? you guys need to take this offline and leave this board out of your personal S.
If you value your tribe more than your countrymen, that is your choice dude. I’m making a different choice.
The problem is he does not say:
Until we know if this will work, everyone needs to follow the rules and stay safe.
He undermines his public safety message with his hope this will work. Many people make decisions based on his words. It’s important that he not undermine the main message that he and the team are trying to convey.
This is why Dr. Fauci winces when he does this.
It’s not about politics people.
It’s about lives.
Listen to the docs, not the pols.
Simple. Out.
Federal courts all over are postponing hearings but not closing to my knowledge. This should actually give them more time to work on decisions in submitted cases like this, with no trials or hearings going on.
Doesn’t anyone have a sense of humor on this board?
Think about what will happen when Pelosi is sworn in when Trump and Pence are knocked out by the virus.
M—
Who knows, my sense was big short algos probing for and finding stop losses on margin shares, prompted by overall market pressure resulting from federal govt gross ineptitude in handling the covid-19 response. Classic politics getting in the way of solutions. The amount of shares involved was not that big in relation to the shares out and it did not last very long.
A
FFS—seems like this is trading pretty much in line with the market, with a gloss that biotech stocks are generally risky, so they may get dumped before some others. Most likely also some big margin calls for many that got in after the share float at 18. Once the margin shares are cleared out and the market stabilizes, so will this. For those like me that have been in this thing since 2011 and loaded up when she was in the $1s in 2015, it’s time to keep your seat belt fastened and ride this out.
A
Kiwi—you may be right but don’t forget that Russia has its own problems and an economy that is not nearly as diversified as the US economy, one largely dependent on hydrocarbon sales for export revenues. Plus the guys calling the shots get hit directly in their own pockets from a long-term price slump in oil. Not a recipe for a long-term price war IMO.
B
BB—Agree and I think these are all reasons why the oil standoff will be short lived, maybe a few weeks.
A
More. There were no surprises, Amarin presented its evidence as planned on the infringement issue, its expert did a good job on this issue, and the generics did what they could on obviousness but are in an uphill battle in the face of USPTO approval of patents and the history.
M—
The decision will be posted on the court electronic docket.
Losing party has 30 days to file an appeal. They must also post an appeal bond to protect the non-appealing party from delay damages.
Appeal length is hard to predict accurately. Safe to assume at least 9 months, likely longer given the complexity of the patent law issues.
I don’t expect a long wait. The roadmap is already laid out in the summary judgment decision. Judge just needs to fill in the pieces not decided before. Post trial filings do that for her. Two weeks tops is my estimate, FWIW.
Judge Du also wants more cases like this coming her way, as they are way more interesting than the run of the mill tort, drug crime and Social Security cases that fill the docket. Nevada has been getting more of these cases for a reason: the judges there are good, and she wants that reputation to build. Why do you think Covington and Amarin chose this court? She is not going to screw it up.
JT—what is the evidence that epa/aa ratio is the key marker? I know dr. Sears is all about the this ratio but I don’t know the science behind it.
B
You are showing your young age and inexperience my friend
Overall caseload in the district could be a factor, yes
CB—
Proper Venue for patent cases is where these defendants have committed acts of infringement and have regular places of business. So AMRN probably had a number of choices given that these generics must do business nationwide. I agree they most likely chose this district for a reason. But they would not choose the judge because cases get assigned by rotation. Maybe they banked on Judge Du getting the case because she is the chief judge for the district, but that would be uncertain.
B
Irish—
Right on man.
B-I think that is the 50 day MA.
Maybe. Was scheduled to start at 8:30 PT, but not uncommon for there to be schedule changes in fed. Ct.
Started 15 mins ago
STS—
If Amarin wins and there is an appeal, this would settle soon thereafter.
Any such appeal would be a huge long shot because this is a bench trial and the judge’s findings on inducement and obviousness are just not going to be open to a serious challenge on appeal. The lawyers for the generics will have to advise them how futile it is. They will try to salvage what they can from the leverage they have from the delay factor. Amarin will throw them a bone to get it over with, and retain the value of the district court’s decision as precedent.
B
That was all worked out before trial in the Pre-trial order. Amarin as plaintiff went first on the infringement piece, which it has to prove. Generics go second on obviousness because they have to prove this part of the case.
TTE—good federal judges do not think that way, and I think she is in that category. She will weigh the competing expert testimony and apply common sense to conclude that Amarin has shown by a preponderance of the evidence (e.g. our expert is more persuasive than theirs) that most docs would prescribe for more than 12 weeks.
B
tte—
Assuming this 7B stock is trading based on the market’s view of how this trial is going is like saying that the US economy is doing great based on the economic policies of the current president. Correlation is not causation my friend. Time to calm down and get real.
B
Wow, guy needs a job.
KIWI—
Exactly, the argument does not make common sense.
A
B—got it, but just thinking bout this from a common sense perspective, which we all hope this judge will use.
A
Less than 12 weeks for any new medicine seems like a short period, and hopefully the judge has good enough common sense to get this.
RAF
I think the question on infringement will ultimately be not whether all docs would prescribe for 12+ weeks based on the label as a whole, but rather whether a significant number of docs reading the label as a whole would do so. I have not seen any authority supporting that the patent holder has to show that all docs reading the label would be induced to prescribe in an infringing manner.
There seems to be plenty of evidence to show many docs would be induced to infringe.
Agree?
If I’m right, infringement is a done deal.
A
Pretty useless
RAF—
We don’t know enough about the details of the case to be able to judge with certainty the prospects for an outcome we don’t like. What we do know is that these generics survived summary judgment and are spending a boatload of money (probably 100K per trial day) and have already spent millions more to push a position that gets them nothing if they don’t settle or win. Maybe they are just pure litigation mercenaries that bring these cases only for settlement money and a small chip off the end of patent protection, but just the sheer cost and effort (including employee and management time) of going after these patents makes me think they have some other motivation, well founded or not.
You also probably need to see a few surprising trial outcomes firsthand before you can appreciate a trial lawyer’s paranoia.
Amarin may be doing exactly as you suggest by going to the mat for a court ruling and it’s precedential value. Is so they are making a well calculated risk-reward decision that is influenced by lots of nuances about the case to date we cannot know. I can’t disagree with the decision, and am especially encouraged by their top of the line trial counsel.
It’s not that simple. There’s always risk in any trial because it is a process involving humans. O.J. Simpson was acquitted, remember? Too much over confidence is the canary in the coal mine for a trial loss or other outcome that is not optimal. Any good trial lawyer will tell you this.
I’m sure Amarin would settle for a modest some a la Teva but these generics have gone piggy, so they are going to get roasted in all likelihood. That does not mean there is no risk that could be eliminated with a reasonable settlement. Remember, this is business.
Odds of winning an appeal are much lower than at trial, as only limited points can be raised on appeal, and the trial judge gets deference from the appeals court on many issues, such as the all important issue of whose experts are more persuasive and credible. Plus the judge, in writing any decision for Amarin, will write it in a way to insulate it from reversal, to the extent possible.
An appeal is not a redo of a trial.
This will give generics some incentive to settle for something of value.
I think the legal fees is secondary at this point to the precedent, and it is always tough to recover fees in US Courts. Plus the generics survived summary judgment, and they would have to be shown to have no good faith basis for their position, a high standard to meet. More of a chip for settlement negotiations.
Start of Trial
As there was no pre-trial settlement, there is a lot less chance this will settle before a court decision. My read is that Amarin offered these guys a TEVA like settlement, but they played hardball and misjudged Amarin’s willingness to play the long game and go to the mat in court. Amarin’s offer likely expired when the trial started.
The generics can always come back with hats in hand later during trial to cut a deal, but they won’t get much if anything.
Not likely to be any big surprises because the stakes are so high all testimony is already known from pre-trial depositions and disclosures, and the issues are all teed up nicely from the detailed pre-trial filings. The main purpose of the trial is to present the expert testimony that the judge did not have reason to evaluate at the summary judgment stage.
There’s a good chance Amarin will use this to send a message to other generics. A good decision will be valuable precedent. If the generics lose they will have to post an appeal bond in order to appeal. That would cost them even more $, and cause another 6-12 month delay before resolved in the Court of Appeals, so both sides will have strong incentive to settle at that point. Amarin would still retain the benefit of the precedent from the trial court’s ruling.
The best chance for a settlement during trial is if the judge sends out signals on how she is leaning on the expert opinions. Some judges will do this to advance the prospects of settlement, which courts will do to try to save judicial resources. But we will not see this show up in the docket, it will be in open court or in chambers.
Sounds like a buying opportunity.