Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Bouf]

Start of Trial

As there was no pre-trial settlement, there is a lot less chance this will settle before a court decision. My read is that Amarin offered these guys a TEVA like settlement, but they played hardball and misjudged Amarin’s willingness to play the long game and go to the mat in court. Amarin’s offer likely expired when the trial started.

The generics can always come back with hats in hand later during trial to cut a deal, but they won’t get much if anything.

Not likely to be any big surprises because the stakes are so high all testimony is already known from pre-trial depositions and disclosures, and the issues are all teed up nicely from the detailed pre-trial filings. The main purpose of the trial is to present the expert testimony that the judge did not have reason to evaluate at the summary judgment stage.

There’s a good chance Amarin will use this to send a message to other generics. A good decision will be valuable precedent. If the generics lose they will have to post an appeal bond in order to appeal. That would cost them even more $, and cause another 6-12 month delay before resolved in the Court of Appeals, so both sides will have strong incentive to settle at that point. Amarin would still retain the benefit of the precedent from the trial court’s ruling.

The best chance for a settlement during trial is if the judge sends out signals on how she is leaning on the expert opinions. Some judges will do this to advance the prospects of settlement, which courts will do to try to save judicial resources. But we will not see this show up in the docket, it will be in open court or in chambers.