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M3S, if you stick em in the right place, they won't be able to hear anything. It's funny that Nokia is now becoming a patent troll.
I wholly agree with you. Dunner had an opportunity to review the case material and must think IDCC has a good chance of winning the appeal. If not, he would have simply walked away and told IDCC his case load was full. I'm beginning to feel very positive about this stock again and hope to see another oppportunity to bury a dagger into the hearts of Nokia Motorola and ERICY.
In Wave's initial development of the TPM, there was a meter capable of measuring micro transactions. Is that meter still included in the TPM that was deployed by Dell and all others or did the TCG pull it out of the specs? If so, maybe its time to put it back in and get a small cut of all micro transactions.
With that meter, Wave could become a financial clearing house in the cloud. That would be earth shattering.
Jim,
It's simply a case of the company receiving the money wanted to get the news to the street pronto to corroborate its business plan and technology. Apparently, IDCC did not have any problem with them being the first to go public with the news. I don't see any problem with that. Also, with the super sleuths on this board, we would find out as soon as it hit the printer. (LOL)
I'm only interested in the new technology IDCC is pursuing and how IDCC is going to generate income from it.
It seems pretty incredible to me that the stock isn't tanking going into options expiration on low volume. This is a first for IDCC and means there is a lot of support at the current price level. Let's just hope the support level keeps inching upward like it has over the past couple of months.
I would love to see some news but I'm not expecting any until first quarter of 2010.
I agree but all I have heard to this point is that corporate enterprises will purchase ERAS to provide security management for all users within the corporate network. There are millions and millions of computers that are not tied to a corporate network that will need security and authentication options as well. How do they take advantage of Wave's services?
Will that come into play only when the government, banks and e-commerce companies decide its time to activate new identification and security policies involving the TPM and its associated software applications?
I'm really trying to determine if Wave could somehow position itself to provide authentication of end users to third parties under a security management subscription plan provided to end users.
Possibly, but what is WAVX going to be selling to the consumer?
Posted by Magillagorilla on the premium board:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44410605
Nokia appears to be changing its business strategy from manufacturing to applications and software. I think they are finding that it is futile to compete with the Chinese. Sounds like they may be shifting to a business plan supported by its patents. Let's see how long they support the 5% maximum royalty cost now.
So Barge, is there a consumer market available for Wave to target or is Embassy only designed to provide protection for the corporate enterprise?
The Company is run mainly by attorneys. To an attorney, silence is golden. It keeps you off the radar and out of trouble. LOL
Ed,
People who tend to value companies on their tangible asset value are usually only interested in the potential breakup value of the enterprise. In my book, they are called scuzz buckets and we don't want them investing in IDCC in the first place.
What kind of tangible asset value do you see for QCOM or Google?
Does this pave the way for a possible deal between Wave Systems and Google or is this just additional support for the TPM? Would it make sense or even be possible for Wave Systems to set up a network to provide key management and identity support for private (non-corporate) PC owners or is this the purpose of OpenID?
Wow, lots of heavy volume spikes after 2:30 (EST) with a high of $1.48. Gave back a little at the end but trading today was strong. Something is definitely up at Wave. Hopefully, we will get some news in the morning.
Jim,
I'm trying to figure a way to reward shareholders with warrants to purchase additional shares at a future date at a discount to the price of the stock at the excercise date. That would give some value to the warrants in addition to the stock and provide additional exposure to the shorts.
The company could issue the stock needed to redeem the warrants out of its treasury. I just don't want to see a lot of immediate dilution from the warrants or it would defeat the purpose unless we knew the value of the stock would increase significantly in the future.
The Company's not out any cash (in fact they stand to raise an additional $200 million or so from redeeming the warrants) and the shareholders get something of potential future value (I hope). The conversion rate may be .25 shares for every existing share owned or something like that.
You are right about Nokia being shaken up. They now have major litigation going with Apple and all the LCD makers. Now is a good time for IDCC to re-engage them at the ITC with an appeal at the Federal Circuit in progress at the same time. "Divide and Conquer" Spread Nokia so thin that they can't dig their way out.
Nokia has to learn the hard way that partnerships bring much greater value than litigation.
Jim,
The ITC decision is all about claims language. Nokia was successful in limiting the claims in IDCC selected patents so narrow, that the patents don't apply to any technology. That is what IDCC is appealing. The finding of validity and enforceability will be extremely valuable against Nokia's arguments of similar related patents where the claims language cannot be construed as applicable only to base stations versus terminal units and user equipment.
Nokia knows they will not be that lucky the second time around with a more defined set of patents that clearly deliniate between base stations and user equipment. I am excited to see the appeal filed but would also like a follow on complaint. Let's spread Nokio a little thin for a change.
Gattica,
I agree and I wonder just how much it would cost to mount a new complaint with new patents before the ITC. If Nokia sees potential problems skirting the new patents and with the potential of a reversal of the existing ITC order, they might come around to better terms than those previously offered to IDCC. If you look at the events unfolding, it's like a virtual chess match. Time to pork the Queen.
Maybe the new talent they brought on board recently is helping them craft better arguments for the appeal. I would rather they take the time to make sure it is right than rush an appeal to save a month.
I do believe another filing at the ITC against Nokia would provide good insurance against a loss at the Federal appeals court. At least it may bring the parties back to the table to negotiate. IDCC needs to send a strong message to Nokia that they will be brought to justice one way or another. IDCC also says they have the patents necessary to beat the previous arguments raised by Nokia in the first case. It shouldn't take long to get some preliminary feedback from the ITC on a new set of patents. I hope their new cousel is working this angle as well.
I have a couple of thousand shares that I trade with on occasion. I put a thousand shares up for sale today above the ask to see how the stock would trade. Usually, it fills in 100 share lots over a period of fifteen to thirty minutes. Today, the entire trade was executed as soon as I hit the button. It appears there is a lot of support for this stock right now and someone is gobbling shares without a second thought.
M3S,
All I see on the premium board is a rehash of news articles about the wireless industry. There is much better debate (pros and cons) on this board. The only problem with this board is the constant bickering that some posters continue to get into. For those people, I tend to think this board is their only form of social activity that they can draw attention from.
I guess we'll find out when the new short interest numbers are posted. Personally, I think WS is now starting to recognize some value in Wave Systems but if my basis was $.30 per share, I would be tempted to take some off the table at $1.30.
I also think our MM is doing a pretty good job stabilizing the stock price. They are not afraid to step in when a big seller appears.
amr,
We have a stock that is currently valued at 50% of its projected future growth and management seemingly has no plan to change that fact. IDCC management has a perception problem with Wall Street. Our management team does not seem to be credible with Wall Street and the shareholders are beginning to realize this the hard way.
Not likely to happen this year. Last year, management rewarded themselves for the Samsung agreement that wasn't finalized until 2009. They already rolled back the bonus accrual for this year in last quarters financials. That is why earnings were about $.05 better than expected. Unless they sign a new major licensee by the end of the year, we will not see any bonuses surprises in the fourth quarter. I see earnings for fourth quarter between $.62 and $.65.
Third quarter earnings should have been around $.64 without the reversal of the bonus accrual. Fourth quarter should be nearly the same as third quarter with maybe some reduced legal expense.
"however if you're looking for vendors that may be influencing the author then you might want to consider companies like McAfee, Symantec, etc."
That seems like a pretty good bet since they seem to be pushing software security models. I guess anyone can be bought for the right price.
TPMs are here to stay and will provide more than just security features in the future.
TTown,
What dmiller was trying to say is that you indicated a price of $20.09 for approximately 17,000 shares in your post regarding an after hour trade. The actual price for the trade was $23.09, therefore the price referenced in your post was off by $3.00.
I'm encouraged because we have not seen the usual sell off ahead of anticipated bad or mediocre earnings. Usually, someone is always tipped off in advance. For this reason, I am expecting a decent earnings report for a change. I'd be happy to see $0.01 in earnings and a cash flow positive quarter.
I would be even more encouraged if some insiders would buy the stock on the open market today or Monday. With positive earnings and insider buying, this stock would double in one day.
Jim, that's only $86 million per year and resembles the same money that IDCC got. However, we don't know what technologies are covered under the license.
I've been saying the same thing about Harry for the last decade. IDCC's Board is self serving and the option grants and RSU programs are a bit of a scam. Harry runs this company as a private organization with no accountability to shareholders. Harry keeps getting reappointed by the institutions though because they control the votes. Bill N. may be turning that thought process around though and that excites me.
IMO, IDCC only bought back shares for its option grants and RSU programs. Since it does not appear that they will meet their objectives in 2009, they will not need shares for the option grants and RSU program which means they are not likely to buy back any more shares. Never mind that it would be good for the shareholders, since management does not need them, it will not happen. I would like to see several people on IDCC's Board replaced, starting with Harry.
The only thing that I do agree with Harry on is the fight with Nokia. They are even more arrogant than Harry so it is a fierce battle of the wills.
Jim,
I may venture one additional reason although I hope it wouldn't be true. Since the ITC ruled in favor of Luckern, there is little to no chance of a settlement with Nokia this year. Therefore, IDCC will not meet its performance goals and no additonal stock grants will be issued for 2009. We saw evidence of this with the partial reversal of the incentive comp plan accrual in the third quarter financials. If no additional stock is needed for bonuses, there is no reason for management to be repurchasing shares. Like I said, I hope its not true but its possible.
Olddog,
The 2 at the end of that number on the insider transactions is a reference for a footnote. I found that when I looked at the numbers earlier. The correct sale price is $1,191,000.
Even so, Harry has done very well selling stock over the last two years.
Ziploc, what do you mean private shareholders are not going to hire a lawyer to get fair value for the company. Fair value calculations are performed all the time based on comparable company indices and other factors. It's not very expensive to get legal representation for a fair value settlement for shareholders. Fair value calculations will start way north of $40.00. The company's patents are worth billions to companies like Apple, Pantech, RIMM, Google and others.
Our valuation by the market right now stinks to high heaven. Someone is definitely holding us down for reasons unknown bBut at the hint of a sell off of assets, the value will increase significantly. The breakup value of this company is enourmous. If management cannot right this company, then let's take away their golden parachutes and let them find a real job.
If you divide the market capitalization by the share price of the stock as reported on Yahoo Finance at the close of business today, you get about 43.125 million shares. That is close to 1 million shares less than at 9/30/09 so they have been buying in October.
True, but with a cross license, they wouldn't have to pay anything to Nokia. They would be trading the free use of patents with Nokia.
Damn people, we get a good quarterly earnings report with a pleasant surprise attached and we are still attacking one another. This report is good for everyone but the shorts. IMO, the reduction in the incentive accrual means management is not expecting a lot of options this year. That means we won't see a lot of dilution to offset the stock buybacks in 2009. It's really all good from here to the end of the year.
I particularly liked Glennymo's suggestion that IDCC sell a couple of 3G patents to Apple using a ratable fee over four years and let Apple apply them to a cross licensing agreement with Nokia. Its a backdoor enema for Nokia by IDCC and Apple can save themselves a lot of legal fees and frustration. Brilliant, Glennymo.
And, they have retired another one million shares since then. Based on the new share count, income would have been $0.71. When they report annual earnings, we will get a boost in reported earnings for the year due to the reduction in shares throughout the year. You cannot just add earnings from the four quarters. Add income for the four quarters and divide by shares at the end of the year. It will add at least a nickel to our annual earnings.
That explains the jump in earnings to $0.69. I was looking for about $0.63 based on $75 million in revenues, $33 million in expenses and outstanding shares of 43 million. The incentive performance adjustments is worth about $0.05 so it fills the void in my estimate.
I hoped they would be at the upper end of revenue guidance and they hit the high end. What they also did was come in under on my estimate of expenses. I thought legal costs would come down during the third quarter. Did they indicate what the number of shares were that the earnings were based on?
Can IDCC intervene in this case and assist Apple directly? That would give them access to all of Nokia's bogus arguments and give them the ability to refute Nokia using Nokia's own arguments and testimony.
"Nokia is not a litigous company?" Bullcrap!!!!!!!
Are they an honorable company? Mucho Grande Bullcrap!!!!!!!
If those chips contain TD SCDMA technology, I don't see how they can bypass IDCC patents, but Motorola is the company that laid the groundwork for Nokia's war against IDCC. Secondly, I'm not too impressed with IDCC's ability to write claims language. Only one of its recently approved patents distinguished between a base station and user equipment (UE).
Also, why have we never tried to license Nokia/Siemens or ERICY for infrastructure? That should have been a no brainer years ago.
Based on a concensus of $0.58 earnings for 3rd Qtr, that translates into revenues of between $71.5 and $72.5 million. That is at the lower end of management's guidance. If we don't beat that number, we are in trouble.