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John, I never thought of that. there was 1.1M shares traded at around 13.48pm for 67 cents!
I am with you, this thing is still murky till the details are announced. And I hope they close by Aug end, no extensions!
John, are you back in??? Waters still murky till the next CC. I still have my position in BRVO , albeit half as much. Today all my stocks took a beating!! (sigh) eom
mcmike, sorry I don't have email privileges. But here is a paragraph from their latest SB-2A......
"
As of July 11, 2005, we had 95,577,713 shares of common stock issued and
outstanding and convertible debentures outstanding that may be converted into an
estimated 75,000,000 shares of common stock at current market prices,
outstanding warrants to purchase 54,000,000 shares of common stock and options
to purchase 2,412,381 shares of common stock
"
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061029/000114420405022473/v022315_sb2a.txt
Closing Price on July 11 was $1.06
If you add up above numbers, they total to 224M shares! However their latest 10Q states O/S, issued and fully diluted as 72M! And so also the CC. I have a feeling that they must have retired some debt. It is best to get a confirmation from BRVO!
Scovillez, this befuddled me!! One has to assume that all of them cannot be at 9.9% at the same time. As a matter of fact only a handful. So do the math on a timeline with handful at 9.9% and the other lesss than 9.9%, converting in a staged manner. As the conversions happen O/S increases and hence the ownership percentage changes! Start with Day 1, Day 2......etc.
mcmike, actually it is 219M shares. Add the 69M to the 150M and you will get the 219M shares!!! It's in their 10K, one has to sit down with a paper and pencil, write down the details and one will arrive at the answer. I'll see if I can pull the numbers together.
Now when CCE is granted the 10% of A/S warrants, that'll add 30M shares to the dilution for grand total of 249M. Now it does not state warrants expiry date. It must be under negotiations. I doubt they will convert at closing. So they will be scrambling for capital!
The 9 investors are bound, at any given time not to own more than 10% of the O/S at that time. So in order to convert their warrants or CDs into shares, they have to sell and then fill the gap with conversions. I hope this helps.
the current investors (9 of them) will need to sell before converting. dilution till 220M shares on the way!!!!
And,Oh wait, BRVO needs cash too!!!!!
Classic Coke!!! All the jostling and jockeying by CCE is over. At first it was 50.01% of BRVO at an average price of 16 cents. Then a PR stating, in addition the rights to acquire BRVO after Dec 2006. Now back to the real stuff, 10% warrants at 36 cents and an MDA. Bravo Coke!!! Should have guessed!! I still maintain the meat will be in the forecast. Next CC will detail the relationship clearly.
The PPS may drop like a rock tomorrow before getting back up. MMs now need the shares. Or it may just meander till the CC.
BRVO still on Reg Sho list. So sell volume is being created by MMs/BDs shorting the stock!
Thanks Split710,.... I was thinking about the same, $1.50- $2.0. However, if CCE exercises the option by 31 Aug, then there will be another month before CCE can swing into action as SEC would have to approve it. This may not be a factor but could be a reason for the stock to languish around the $1.50 value.
Anyone think BRVO will move to $4-$5 after the CC?? Just curious as I am into SMTX and SMTX is rapidly moving upward!
pete, when did u receive this email, before or after CC? TIA.eom
$14.5m. EOM
mcmike, nice post. Thanks. eom
sons, I gues it is just profit taking or just moving to another exciting invesstment opportunity. It was really exciting to see BRVO move 10-20 cents everyday! But here is my take what the PPS will be when the CC is completed......according tp Lehman report (I saw it posted on this board), they forecasted revenues of $90M in 2006 just for US. Using a multiple of 5, that would equate to 450M, then dividing by 300M would give a PPS of $1.50. Now management indicated they are very comfortable with LEhman's projections. And also they indicated that with CCE everything regarding distribution will fall in place. Whoever has the least distribution costs will have the least profduct cost. And CCE has people who regularly check the stores shelf space for product replenishments, thus minimizing the fragmentation problem..
Bottom line CCE involvement needs to resolved and clarified. In the meantime this stock could do any number of things!
Very exciting times indeed! Next few weeks will be good time to accumulate (jmo). 3Q will a cash infusion of $15M (depending on the closing date). So even if expenses increases 3Q & 4Q, there will be positive cash flow. The number to follow will be the cash flow that can support revenue generation.
When the deal closes, there will not be a requirement for raising more capital or even issuing more shares (this includes shares underlying all outsatnding warrants). Infact when the oustatnding warrant convert, which is about 50M, there will be more cash infow.
The biggest gain with CCE is that hopefully all Supply Chain problems will iron out!
Hoping for the best!
sons, thanks for your view point. eom
pete, good points. if investors do not get their questions answered regarding CCE, then there will be some momentary weakness. I don't know how long it will last! Obviously there are changes taking place in the market but the changes are not going to happen quick. So although they will beat numbers and guidance will be impressive, the big Q still looms...how will BRVO manage the CCE partnership? How will the partnership emerge??? Just my observation; CCE should allow BRVO to lead as CCE does not know the Milk business!! If CCE starts imposing it's rule, then.................eom
i doubt it pete. it will hover around a $1 till CC. And then depending on the news it will either tank or go up north. If the CCE deal is not closed, my feeling is that it will go south. jmo
Bravo! CEO Roy Warren said, "On the heels of several important product launches and a number of promotional campaigns nationwide, the second quarter has been very encouraging for Bravo! We look forward to an informative discussion of operating results and strategies with our shareholders."
mcmike, my take, a common sense approach....Roy had plans to get BRVO listed on NASDAQ small cap next year, which means the stock would need to trade at $4 bid for 90 consecutive trading days. Now if CCE is getting involved I am thinking the expectations will be twice as much!!
verylong, how do you write covered calls?? eom
interesting read on Sweet Success brand.........
HORSHAM, Pa. -- Nutrisystem.com has acquired Nestle's Sweet Success in exchange for some 900,000 shares of its stock, the company has announced. Nutrisystem.com picks up the entire Sweet Success line, which includes ready-to-drink weight loss shakes, powdered shake mix and snack bars, and generated more than $14 million in sales through the first half of 2000. Nutrisystem, which began its online community about a year ago, reported sales of some $11 million during the first half of the year.
However, the company does not plan to pull it from the shelves of mass retail.
"Sweet Success is an excellent complement to the Nutrisystem.com online weight loss program," said Brian Haveson, chief executive for nutrisystem.com. "We will continue to distribute the Sweet Success product solely through mass market retailers, but will create the kind of online support, interaction and information ... that has proven so successful for the members of the Nutrisystem.com community."
The stock swap delivers Nestle a 3 percent ownership position in Nutrisystem.com.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3374/is_15_22/ai_67551086#continue
It looks like $40M per year is right! Nestle's had total sales for the Sweet Success product line of gretaer than $240M.
"Sweet Success Enterprises, Inc. is a company established to market Sweet Success(tm) diet meal replacement products, a select group of weight loss and health care products that established wide name identification with national consumers. As part of the Nestle USA product line, Sweet Success(tm) achieved sales in excess of $300 million ($40 million per year) primarily through the leading major retail grocery and drug chains, and gained as much as 18% market share."
http://www.primezone.com/newsroom/news.html?d=73720
hi I am new to SWTS. I have question regarding. The above info box says annula revenue under Nestle was above $40M but the leeter to the shareholder says above annula revenue under Nestle's was $240M! Which is the right figure???
Sons, about BRVO, this is a joint venture. As I see it, CCE is spending $38M to get an exclusive Master license to distribute Slammers in N. America and parts of Europe. And by the by they are taking 50.05% euqity position so that their effort are not usurped by its competitor PEPSI. When the deal is finalized, I think you'll see KO becoming a buyer of BRVO brands. Slammers is on its way to becoming a houshold name. JMO.
sons, thanks for the link. I listened to it and it sounds exciting! But my funds are tied up. I'd rather wait for the BRVO-CCE deal to clear up and then make the switch. It looks like SWTS is undergoing market trials again! And will roll out nationally very early next year. As such I missed it under a dollar! So my take is I can wait for some more time.
I am tied up in BRVO & FCCN.
John. thanks for the feedback. Your analysis is right on the nail. That's the reason I am clinging on to BRVO's shares! Well, the product is not exactly unique as Nestle was the pioneer but the packaging, branding and the 6mos shelf life is. But flavored milk has a very strong recurring consumption demand. I have seen it with my own eyes. People who are averse to milk are just taking a liking to Slammers. However they do want to buy them at Costco's or Walmart's! That's why I feel CCE will be a big Plus. As you state it is really one of a kind find.
I have FCCN, so if FFCN goes up and BRVO goes down it is O.K!
Also I feel the next product that I will invest in should have similar characteristics i.e be unique and have a very strong recurring consumption demand. Take a look at INTK.PK. They are getting ready to go to the OTC.
Others on my watchlist, NTRZ, CYBL(lot of competition), IFDG (Coffee is a premium!), VYST (unique product, lot of competition), DSTI (looking for an entry point).
Thanks Mr.B, both of them are on my watch list! eom
John, any insights into the next BRVO...........eom
that's 150 million shares at average price of 25 cents which equates to approximately $38M cash. eom
mcmike, that's a whole lot of Corporate Finance theory, normally taught in a year or so but I'll try!
Essentially the Value of a Firm is determined by discounting it's future cash flows using the concept called Time Value of Money ( u may want to Goog Time Value of Money) but here is a link.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/082703.asp
Cost of Capital is the discount rate used in the above calculation. It is usually the weighted average after tax cost of debt and Equity. In this case I am assuming that there will be no debt in BRVO's capital structure and investors want a minimum return on equity of 15%. This is the most sensitive variable in the above calculation.
For Revenue forecast I used 2 scenarios:
1. start with 100M revenues in 2006 and grow to $1B in 2010 and
2. start with 300M revenues in 2006 and grow to $2B in 2010. There are various growth algorithms in Excel SS.
Then the cash flows (Net Operating Profit after Tax) are calculated using the numbers given in the investors kit.
Of course I am also assuming the effective tax rate as 35% and I have not leveraged any of the carry forward losses. But essentailly once the model is captured one can tweak the numbers and calculate the discounted earnings per share
For P/E multiple I use 4 because that is the Industry average (given in Yahoo finance)
Anyways there are some underlying assumptions in financial theory:
1. A business operates in infinity. That's why one has to consider growth beyond 2010
2. Investors are rational people
mcmike, here is a good book,
Intermediate Financial Management by
Eugene Brigham and Phillip Daves
If CCE & BRVO execute the plan well, then this is going to be a PPS between $8 & $24. We will know by the end of this year if they are executing well. I did a discounted cash flow analysis and the discounted NPV EPS comes out to be between $2 and $6 on a fully diluted basis of 300M shares. Multiply that by P/E multiple of 4.
My assumptions are:
1. 2010 revenue of $1B - $2B
2. Cost of capital = Cost of Equity = 15%
3. O/S 300M shares
4. Revenue Growth beyond 2010 = 5%
In reality there is going to be a float of well below 150M shares. So the demand will be chasing the float. Look out for spikes!!! GLTA.
anyone know what the production capacity at Jasper.... they say 4 million units per month. Is that 4million pallets or 4 million bottles??
arkie, thanks for the post. lookin great!! the new website is definitely awesome (compared to it's predecessor).
arkie, thanks for posting the info. but i would think that an investors kit can be sent to anyone wanting to become a sharholder???
send an email to info@bravobrands.com.eom
yes, CCE is restructuring. But I think they are buying COKE and consolidating.
Global Brand Value......................................
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/brand05.html
A New World for Old Brands
BusinessWeek Online
Today's best brand builders are intensely creative in getting their message out. Many of the biggest and most established brands, from Coke to Marlboro, achieved their global heft decades ago by helping to pioneer the 30-second TV commercial. But it's a different world now. More...
The Most Valuable Global Brands
Brand (Parent Company) 2005 Value in Millions
1. Coca-Cola (KO) $67,525
2. Microsoft (MSFT) $61,372
3. IBM (IBM) $53,791
4. GE (GE) $44,111
5. Intel (INTC) $33,499
6. Nokia (NOK) $24,041
7. Disney (DIS) $27,113
8. McDonald's (MCD) $25,001
9. Toyota (TM) $22,673
10. Marlboro (MO) $22,128
JMO. I am a buyer at these prices (if I had the cash)! Now that we know CCE is serious about this business I am betting that it will be a minimum of $5 by this year end. Also keep in mind that CCE can assign its 51% stake in BRVO to KO or a joint venture bewteen KO and CCE. Let's face it, KO or CCE will not be interested in acquiring a brand until and unless it provides multi-billion worldwide opportunity.