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Sell-side analysis at its finest: after the fact.
Okay I'm going to go out on a limb here and say they're gonna do $88M in sales. $42M in RHA. $42M in Daxi, and $4M in other.
Agreed. If I was not already long ENTA I would consider this an excellent entry point. I've already averaged down and harvested tax-losses on ENTA so to answer Jake's question from an earlier post, I am holding here. I have no clue how the market will react tomorrow.
Just to clarify I meant the opportunity was synergistic, as you have agreed with, not the drugs themselves.
Just been busy over on the other board with ENTA plus some other stocks today :)
$35M for Daxi and how much for RHA?
Would you consider this an admission that their virology pipeline is thin, as certain unnamed people would no doubt argue, or simply a move to capitalize on a synergistic opportunity?
Okay, understood. I will avoid personal attacks. But I can not avoid attacking Jake's FUD.
I was saying that EUA route is now closed and that phase 3 trials will be for standard approval. Of course if there is a flare-up with Covid that could change. But at this point I am assuming EUA is off the table and we will have to wait longer.
Unfortunately the post that was deleted contained some valuable insight. Jake is incorrect that nobody will ever want EDP-235. Assets get mispriced all the time. In the long run Jay will be proven right and Jake will be proven wrong. I also said that I believe there is a gulf between what Jay knows the EDP-235 (and access to their follow-on compound) is worth, vs what the market and less informed participants like Jake think it's worth. Jay is not going to screw-over ENTA shareholders by accepting a lowball price.
I am more disappointed by the closure of the EUA route for EDP-235 as a patient than an investor. As an investor I'm confident Jay will be eventually proven right. However as a patient the lack of an effective once-daily antiviral for Covid is extremely frustrating!!
GREAT answer from Jay on EDP-235. Jake is correct that there is no partner right now who is willing to pay what Jay knows EDP-235 (and access to their follow-on agent) is worth. But Covid is not going anywhere. Reduced vaccination rates and return to normal life will inevitably drive Covid infections. Bulls (including myself) who were hoping for an EUA and quick to market for EDP-235 will have to give up on that unfortunately. Jay will ultimately be proven right as he was with HCV.
I agree. I think the "less spread is bad" argument is dumb.
No this move is not RVNC specific (at least so far). Check XBI, or numerous other stocks today.
Thanks for sharing. Overall I would call this a positive review of Daxxify! He has only injected himself so he has very limited experience compared to some other injectors who have posted on TikTok or Instagram. His Daxi is still going strong at 4.5 months which is longer than he gets from any of the other toxins! He's waiting to see how long it goes before recommending it to patients, given the price difference.
Also per his comments on difference in spread, that's exactly why RVNC needs to train injectors! Unfortunately the single approved indication limits what RVNC can actually show the injectors how to do, but I'd guess "suggestions" are made in the training sessions that would apply more broadly for injectors to develop techniques they can apply to other muscles.
Jbog is also wrong to assume most big players on Wall Street are run like Axe Cap. In fact, most buy-side fund managers are just follow-the-trend dumb money. WSB is often smarter. And of course sell-side is beyond useless.
WorstLuck is a shill here to spread RVNC FUD. Jbog didn't do snooping. He linked to an anonymous review site. You can go there and read the reviews yourself. They are mostly beyond useless anonymous blurbs. I have been doing actual snooping on Instagram and TikTok for several months and I'd say Daxi favorability is 80-90%. When I have more time I will put together some links, although many posts have already been shared here.
Probably because some people here have suspect motives and aren't transparent about them. Opposing viewpoints are great and if somebody is short a stock I'm long that's fine. But some people are here to troll or pretend to be interested in a stock only to spread FUD.
I've seen realself.com before and it's highly suspect. First of all the sample size is tiny so even if they are all legit reviews it doesn't mean much. But most of the reviews are just anonymous and could be literally anybody (Abbvie shills?). As everybody here knows there are a lot of doubters and people out to spread Revance/Daxxify FUD! I've been following posts about Daxxify on Instagram and TikTok where people mostly post with a legitimate social media identity not some anonymous handle on a random review site. What I've seen there has been overwhelmingly positive. Some people have complianed of overpaying but that is an issue with their injector of choice, not Revance or Daxxify per se.
Couldn't have said it better myself! WorstLuck has a history of making such "observational" statements that are really just his opinion. I suspect he is a fake bull and perhaps an Abbvie shill.
Your logic is ridiculous. You're taking the opinion of your doctor as gospel when this supposed expert isn't even aware of a much superior option for his patients that will soon be available. He should be the one telling you how excited he is. That he's not, to me, says he's not such an expert at all. Regardless he's one doctor so it's purely anecdotal. I'll give you credit for at least stating that at the beginning of your original post.
Lol. That's completely anecdotal based off a discussion with one doctor. Call him a Botox man? That sounds about right to me. Alternatively, he might just be obstinate. Many doctors, even excellent ones, think they know everything, or at least know better than you do. It sounds like he's not patient-first given that he will be giving his patients substandard care. I do agree that word-of-mouth will be less beneficial in therapeutics which could slow the rollout as patients will stick with their doctor's recommendation (even if wrong) rather than seeking the best option they see on social media.
I should add that Daxxify is not yet approved for CD so it makes sense that awareness is low. No attempt has been made yet, obviously, to sell Daxxify for therapeutics. Everybody knows RVNC will need a partner for therapeutic sales.
And who did the R&D? Jake is a NOT a legitimate voice on this board. He is a troll. What's your endgame Jake? If ENTA does get a partnership on EDP-235 are you going to quiet quit this board and disappear?
A new low for Jake's credibility. He has no idea what he's talking about on HCV! That fits with what I've been saying that Jake is no ENTA sage but rather a troll using ENTA as a means to an end. I'm all about hearing opposing viewpoints but this guy has stepped over a line and I'm surprised he has not been banned by the moderator.
I don't normally comment on my own trades but I will have you know Jake that I've done extremely well on ENTA over the years. It could go to $0 now and that would still be true.
If you look back to the March 2020 market panic you'll see that ENTA was essentially unaffected, and that was before the announcement of EDP-235. ENTA had already sold off considerably in 2019 for unrelated reasons. Impossible to say for sure what would happen in a future hypothetical panic but it's not unprecedented that ENTA could be spared, especially after this year's already brutal sell off.
Imo just about everything bad is already priced in. The market sentiment on ENTA can be summed up as basically what Jake the troll posts here.
I don't care to assign probabilities but I think the risk/reward is very much tilted toward the upside. There are many potential catalysts to move the stock higher and it wouldn't take much good news at this point to send the Jakes of the world packing.
At the current price you could more than 5x if ENTA went back to prices it has hit multiple times and as recently as 20ish months ago.
You could just as easily say this is bullish for ENTA if other companies sense the sales opportunity in this market is weak and back off their own efforts.
EDP-235 is the best Covid anti-viral currently known based on actual clinical or real world data. ENTA also already has a follow-on PLpro compound in development.
Covid is not going anywhere and reinfection is common even among previously vaccinated individuals. People I know have recently gotten infected and suffered 2-week plus bouts of illness. Paxlovid is not at all a compelling product for low risk individuals given the complexity, bad taste, and lack of statistical benefit. Most people are interested in feeling better sooner if there is a product that is perceived to work and have low risk. People seek out OTC medicines for the common cold for this very reason.
But Paxlovid hasn't been shown to make low risk patients feel better 1-2 days faster like EDP-235 has! Warnings and interactions impact sentiment beyond people who are actually impacted by the interactions. It has to be frictionless for low risk patients to seek it out.
You're speculating based on no actual knowledge. If you're so confident you must be short ENTA right?
Paxlovid is a hard sell for most people who are at low risk for severe disease given that it hasn't been shown to improve symptoms, is 3 pills twice a day that taste bad, and has many interactions with other medicines.
It would be far easier to convince such a cohort to seek out a superior drug like EDP-235.
I believe this was expected as governments and clinics work through their existing inventory. I'm sure Dew would remember.
Edit: He just posted...
Thanks for your insight!
I agree it will take time for Daxi to grow market share but your earlier comment about having only one shot at launch as informed by Jeuveau's experience doesn't hold for Daxxify. Informed patients will start asking for Daxxify and if a provider doesn't offer it the patient will go elsewhere!
The car analogy isn't very good because a car is a durable good with many considerations. Premium models also cost significantly more to manufacture. Revance has a lot of room to adjust pricing as needed to increase market share.
Also, per your point about dissatisfaction with Abbvie, obviously Revance gives you an alternative as well. How has your experience been dealing with Revance reps?
Conference Call on August 7 at 4:30 p.m. ET to Discuss its Financial Results for Its Fiscal Third Quarter Ended June 30, 2023:
https://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-host-conference-call-august-7-430-pm-et-1
Source? There's been no press release posted on Revance's website.
Exactly. He's speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Jake is troll, nothing more. Some people on this board have given him far too much credit. A broken clock is also right twice a day. The wording of this most recent asinine post reveals his true intentions.
Just to be clear, that image was posted on Instagram by a provider and is not endorsed or affiliated with Revance in any way. I doubt the high powered lawyers will go after a small business for an Instagram post.
https://kristenjacobs.com/
https://www.yelp.com/biz/ooh-la-la-spa-anti-aging-and-wellness-glen-carbon
Btw the question about Daxi on yesterday's Abbvie call was from Terence Flynn with MS who has a $26 equal-weight on RVNC and a $184 overweight on ABBV. Morgan Stanley is a well known shill for some other publicly traded companies.
Don't be silly. For them to make such an announcement now would essentially be saying publicly they will get approval. While I think approval is extremely likely, the last thing RVNC needs to do right now is upset the FDA. Especially given what happened in 2021.
Jake, that is an extremely low quality post. Par for the course for you. Everybody can see the market price. Everybody knows how far away September is.
What are you trying to accomplish? I'm quite sure even you are not dumb enough to be short this stock right now.