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hopefully, this stock will trade better as tax loss selling fades. The current valuation pretty much assumed Daxxify will never gain more market share from now on.
Yes. I think many of us are surprised how far and fast $ENTA has been falling.
Tax loss selling, margin selling, get me out selling.... while market is pretty much at all time high.
Interesting. Word is getting out.
🚀 Get ready to be amazed! The potential of $ENTA is unparalleled. Time to rethink your strategy and see why $ENTA stands out from the crowd. Move over $TSLA, $PLTR, $NVDA, $QQQ - there's a new game-changer in town! #InvestmentOpportunity #MarketShaker 😎 pic.twitter.com/Ct01tXR73V
— FACT CAT (@factcatpoll) December 16, 2023
Nice to see some interest in RSV area... and somehow $ENTA still trading at negative EV given its unique RSV position.
Nobody wants the shares now... probably mean the best time to buy. 30k shares used to cost 1 millions and everyone wanted it.
Now, all it takes is 200k and more sellers than buyers.
Anyone adding? Or all waiting for tax selling to end?
From the latest webcast, it seems like they might have more than one new focus area coming up next year. I thought it would be just one
I hear you. The market is also growing. I put 20 percent just to show the potential upside.
If it gets up to 40 percent in a say 7 billions market, you can do the match
And by the way, if the margin is still 80 percent then and it’s still taking market share, the multiple would probably be quite a bit higher than 4x
Of course, it can also be a complete flop. After all, it’s bio tech but I really love the risk reward here
Unless Foley is a complete retard or a mole from Abbv, upside from here is huge.
I keep using the same math, 20 percent of Botox sales is 1.2 billions, 5x sales gets your 5 billions market cap
~50 to 60 pps seems doable? and I think 20 percent in 3 to 5 years is not totally pipe dream
And then on top you have RHA that is growing nicely.
Dont be bothered by short term share price movements. As long as the business keep improving, share price will reflect the value. And I think there is real chance this company will get bought out at nice premium.
Very positive win-win situation there. Any reason why the uptick won’t be a lot faster going forward? How was the learning curve for you?
Any useful analysts should be able to draw similar conclusion if they are willing to talk to more injectors that have been on boarded
We can all hope they will partner with $ENTA instead of moving forward with their own. They can provide a nice settlement while at it too.
>>Daxi should take 40% cosmetic market share at the same price as Botox! Instead, the SP is in the trash!
Now the key is do you believe $RVNC will get there eventually (say in 3-5 years). If so, you are talking about ~1.5 billions sales just from Daxi cosmetic alone. 5x is 6.5 billions and that's like $70 per shares. Not a bad investment
Isn’t Foley the one who oversee the strategy for RHA rollout? I thought RHA rollout was considered well executed?
Emannow, thanks for the very interesting color. Nice to know Daxxify and RHA is doing well. If one looks at the share price, one would think no one wants $RVNC's products. The truth can't be more different.
RVNC is going to be a great turnaround story next couple years I bet.
Key messages
they are fixing the mess created by premium rollout strategy
CD is moving forward nicely on insurance front
Still confident that they have enough cash to last them to cash flow positive
So really nothing news
If one believes 1 billion total sale (RHA+Daxxify) in 2-3 years, current price is a bargain. 4.5x (peer valuation) translate to $50+ stock price. One can argue that Daxxify deserves even high multiple given its best in class status in a growing and recession proof market.🚀
"With current cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and anticipated revenues and expenditures, management projects that the company will be funded to cash flow break-even and expects to reach positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2025."
On top they have $150mm facility they can draw to bridge the gap.
Yes, the valuation is completely irrational. I get that Covid is not a hot area now. But basically, the market is paying us ~150 millions cash to own entire ENTA's pipelines and IPs.
It's like free money and free options value. And with insiders holding good chunk of shares, they have incentive to fix the valuation gap.
Well, Foley has created a life time opportunity for us to add shares cheaply. Going forward, commercial strategy for Daxxify would be straight forward: same price better results. And Foley seems no longer in charge of it anyways?
must be tough for Luly, his 800k shares used to worth around 70 millions at peak.. now it's 7 millions. And he is 65 years old? I would think he would love an exit.
Not going to sell any at 11 or 9. The company has potential to worth much more - and with potential buyout, settlement, partnership, upcoming
With the cash (~15and royalty steam - it has next to zero downside risk in term of terminal value.
Really like my odd here. Best in class drug in a multi-billions market. All for less than billion EV.
Any chance it would be GPL 1?
>> clarity on Covid regulatory pathway
Well, we get some clarify on this... high risk is no go as hospitalization rate is low, standard risk will be the way to go.
Only one question for 285. (and it's the last question) so I guess it means the covid curse will be ending soon.
And market can shift focus on its cash, RSV candidates and royalty steam.
Will be interesting to see what's the new area they are targeting.
>> would it be a good move for them to fund the Covid phase 3 trials themself?
Hope not. Not after they committed couple times to only proceed with a partner.
That would tell everyone nobody actually wants its covid drug but themselves.
It feels like finally, $RVNC has figured out various pieces of the puzzle and putting things together.. and at the same time, the valuation is at record low. Next few quarters will be rewarding.
That’s why I think the attack become so much more intense when RVNC moved away from premium pricing
As that move made RVNC become a much bigger threat to companies that have inferior products
Why everyone would pay the same for worse outcome
Monday. The best news we can hope for:
- partnership on either Covid or RSV
- seeking strategy alternatives including sale of the company
- clarity on Covid regulatory pathway
- sold the remaining royalties for around 200mm
- share buyback
By the way, New 13G filed on this name.
I think he meant to say it’s impressive for RVNC
$RNVC - they did explain their rollout strategy in several occasions for those willing to spend 30 mins to listen into their calls.
Emannow - In the recent CC, Foley mentioned most of the sales happen during the 3rd month in the quarter (March, June, Sept, Dec).... do you mean they have already achieved their quarterly sales target mid Nov? I probably miss something as that would be too good to be true.
That's against 300mm cash, one thing Foley did well is he managed to get all the liquidity he needed to fund the company to cash flow positive. The 100mm raise 3 months ago was a great move. It was ~3% dilution back then. It would be a 20% dilution if they need 100M now.
Yes and as investors, we are not paying $4billions for $RVNC. We are talking about $500 market cap for a approved drug that has blockbuster potential and then a RHA line that is taking market share rapidly
Crazy cheap and abnormal risk and reward ratio here
Few days in a row, really large blocks crossed near the end of day. Funds are moving things around. I think we will see pretty significant moves after funds repositioning
Interesting time
I would never laugh at people because they had a few bad trades. You made a good call, bravo but get a life.
The webcast is fine, it is just too early to be either too optimistic or too pessimistic. CD is pre launch, so they cant really say much there other than its duration potential and reimbursement.
For cosmetic side, they can’t really confirm the impact of the price change yet as most orders will come in the 3rd month.
I don’t think they are blaming the injectors per se on the premium pricing failure. They are mainly saying premium pricing caused injectors to have tougher conversion and now that barrier is gone
Pretty certain many big pharmaceutical will be willing to pay way more than 1.5 billions to get $RVNC. But it would be too low for RVNC to even consider. At least for now. There is forced liquidation going on. Things will change fast when fundamentals rule again
The current price is Godsend Unless management is complete fraud, all those KOLs that shown up in the Investor's Day are paid actors/actresses and TEOXANE is complete idiot (they bought 2mm shares few weeks ago at high teen, then 2mm at around 9s.)
The risk reward ratio is unreal. The filler business alone provides great downside protection. But like any irrational selling, you can't really tell where the bottom will be until after the fact.
Remember only two prices really matter, the price you paid and the price you sold. The prices in between are just noises.