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indy,
I make about $50 an hour at my job, so I predict my net worth in cash will be up by at least $400 at the end of Monday (minus lunch)....
(8^>)
PokerVertigo,
I don't know if you are here to learn more about AURC or to antagonize. I'll assume the former for now, although a lot of the information you are asking for could be found with very little effort, so you are obviously here to highlight things to a general audience. Here are my answers - and I am not 2c nor do I share his opinions on many topics concerning AURC. Contrary to the usual tone of this board, other opinions do exist and can also see the value here.
My answers by corresponding number:
1) When Aurus took over the shell company "Black Rock Golf", they reverse split to create the share structure they required. This was when Aurus first when public. The Transfer Agent recently confirmed there is "no material change" in the share structure, therefore there has NEVER been significant dilution or reverse splitting since the stock was trading as AURC. If you are not comfortable with an approximately 110 million share structure, go elsewhere. Frankly, I think it is a modest share count compared to most mining issues, even on major exchanges. The share count could double and we would still be extremely undervalued.
2) S-R already replied. Digest it. It's not hard to understand. Look up Russian accounting principles to verify if you don't trust the PR. I have, and what Parkin said is true. Underground assets are an offsetting debt adjustment on Russian financials. Do you REALLY think the company's debt happens to exactly equal their assets? How ridiculous.
3) I have provided a link to THE document by which almost all western mining companies are valued. OF COURSE underground assets have value, or development stage mining companies wouldn't trade on public exchanges. This is the question that gives you away as having ulterior motives. Either that or you know nothing about mining valuation and therefore should not be invested here. Don't take anyone else's word on valuation. Do it yourself. Always. My estimated value for this stock is signifcantly lower than 2c's, but still greater than the current share price by MANY multiples.
http://www.cim.org/committees/CIMVal_Final_Standards.pdf#search=%22CIMVal%20Standards%20%22
4) Yes, the financials are unaudited, as are financials for 95% of all pinksheets. Yes, Parkin said they were audited in a PR, but they are not. A financial and business audit was conducted by ComplexAudit in January and everything was found to be in order. RMS Top Audit did prepare the business plan in 2004. Read the email from RSM Top Audit below. If you are uncomfortable with Parkin saying the financials were audited when they were not, then pass on this stock. I'm fine with it. I'm here for the assets.
To: corvettemark
Subject: your inquiry
From: ASoskin@top-audit.ru Add to Address Book Add Mobile Alert
Date: Thu, 8 Jun 2006 12:00:11 +0400
Dear Mr. Wilson,
Thank you for your e-mail. Please be advised that specialists of the Investment Audit Department of RSM Top-Audit have prepared a business plan for the investment project for setting up a multi-product association to extract and process natural resources and recover precious and rare-earth metals in Transbaikalia and Chukotka. The Project has been prepared in accordance with the international investment project standards under Agreement No. 08t24 dated 27.10.2004 on order from Mining Corporation Zabaikalgeoprom. Zabaikalgeoprom has become part of Aurus Corporation by means of merger. As regards the deposits mentioned in the business plan, their mineral reserves are acknowledged by currently valid licenses to develop them, geologic information, and reports of the RF State Reserves Commission.
The financial and business operations of Zabaikalgeoprom as of 01.01.2006 had been audited by the Russian auditing and consulting firm Complex-Audit and the company accounts were found reliable (Audit Report dated 01.03.2006).
RSM Top-Audit and Aurus Corporation are currently negotiating an audit agreement. As of today, no such agreements were signed and, accordingly, we have not audited this company. Besides, RSM Top-Audit does not conduct geological audit of gold reserves and, again, no such audit has been conducted.
In accordance with the international auditing and business ethics standards, RSM Top-Audit observes the conditions of confidentiality in client relations. All information about Aurus Corporation is available on its corporate web site, and it is the company that is responsible for the reliability of such information.
Sincerely,
Sergey V. Salnikov
Head of Investment Audit
I think NDOL would have to drop to about .11 for me to consider purchasing it again, only because I need a serious discount right now with all of the big uncertainties. Their announcement to become unreporting (I thought they already were?) and the lack of explanation about how they intend to qualify for AIM or any kind of a timeline just makes me nervous. The fact that I think this could drop to .11 due to uncertainty is enough to keep me on the sidelines for now. I do believe that all of the prior PR's about potential acquisitions were really being negotiated, but it's a little hard to see through the trees right now.
I still prefer having my money in AURC, as long they get on a track of updating investors on a regular basis. If it hits my average buy-in price at .24, I may sell some shares and diversify a little bit more than I currently am. I really never thought AURC would drop to .09, but that's what happens when you don't talk to your investors for 5 months. I regained $14,000 yesterday on paper with AURC's rise, but I'm still down about $14,000, too. Those are big numbers. I'm feelin' the need to cut some of that risk...
I always thought AURC's share price would far surpass NDOL's based on assets alone, I just didn't think it would take this long to catch up. Here's hoping Aurus makes some attempt to maintain and grow the price...
If you look at the 36 month chart on pinksheets.com, you can see where I got the volatility comment from. But I realized it was a fairly irrelevant comment soon afterwards because they reverse-merged into another company and the prior company's performance doesn't matter.
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=CWRN&duration=2-6-9-0-0-536
As for Labwire, I just did the math assuming 50% growth each quarter. At the end of all that growth, .10 would be the value relative to peers. Now share price always anticipates growth. If you think they'll have more than 23 million in revenues over the next year and/or can achieve greater than a 15% operating margin, then yes, they are undervalued at the current price. I think my estimates are generous given their revenues for the last quarter were only 800k. I DO NOT think Labwire is currently discounted for being a pink stock. It's trading at the price it would settle to on a major exchange with it's growth rate. There's advantages and disadvantages to being a totally transparent company. You're going to get less speculation and that is generally what drives a pink stock. Labwire is a safe investment, I think, but there's not a lot of mystery there. I still say .50 by next summer if they show they can land some of those big contracts. A safe investment with a decent chance of being a 5 bagger in one year is a pretty rare find. Maybe more bags if you sell on a short term run up after a big announcement. A pink stock that behaves like a major exchange stock is also a pretty rare find.
Why Labwire's PPS is so low along with a lot of pinks stocks is the share count. 150 million shares is a lot for a young company. The revenues need to grow incredibly fast for the share price to appreciate quickly. A low float will make a stock more volatile, but won't increase the intrinsic value. I sold out of NDOL (too late, of course, but not at a loss) because I eventually decided that the increased share count with the merger made it a VERY different stock than it was pre-merger. Everyone who hasn't left says they are still in it for the same reasons, but they can't be. At least, they can't have the same expectations. It's just not possible when your share count goes from about 250 million to 600 million.
One main reason I like CWRN is the attractive share structure. When CWRN proves to be the real deal - I think it will, but we'll see - this is going to rise fast and sustain fairly easily. I'm at 150k shares right now, but lookin' to add when I can. Funny, I bought my first shares at .55 and now it's exactly 1/10 that price. If I'd only known....
I still haven't purchased, but am watching closely. There's another stock I'm focused on adding to right now, CWRN, a mining stock which is stupidly undervalued if they have the assets they claim, and I think they do. The MCL fashions didn't blow me out of the water. What I mostly like about this company is their aggressive marketing tactics. Given that the ask is 3 cents below the closing price, I see this going down on Monday, barring any sensational news.
Picked up another 22k at .055. I kind of hope the price stays this low for another couple of weeks. I could accumulate quite a bit. I don't see any real catalysts for moving the price over the next few weeks, especially if Bob is going incommunicado.
I'm not sure what the initials stand for, but one price is the value if the buyers pick the ore up in the Philippines and the higher value is if CWRN delivers the ore to China. Depends on the expense (and risk) of delivery as to which to choose. Initially, all ore will be sold off the dock at the lower price.
Great. Glad to hear you sold, jappie. See you later!
I basically agree with that. A safe investment is a rarity in the pinks.
It dipped to .05. I'd be shocked if you weren't filled at .06.
Added $2B in ore through the magnometer testing? My goodness.
CWRN Update. Lookin' good.
Cotton & Western Mining, Inc. Mindoro Island Update
Thursday September 21, 12:00 pm ET
MANILA, PHILIPPINES--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 21, 2006 -- Robert L. Cotton, President & CEO of Cotton & Western Mining, Inc. (Other OTC:CWRN.PK - News), announced today that mini diamond core drilling has started on the Mindoro Island iron deposits.
There are no roads into the mountainous area of Mindoro Island and work crews hiked two days for some 30 kilometers to reach the iron deposits located off the upper reaches of the Mamburao River. Drilling equipment and supplies were flown in by helicopter, and it is expected that the drilling activities will take approximately fifteen days to complete. Ten holes will drilled at each location to take core samples of up to eighty feet deep from each of the four main iron deposits of Nagsabongan, Dayap, Lasala and Lapaao mineral leases. The purpose of these activities is to confirm the previous geological survey and reevaluate the total estimated metric tons of reserves.
SGS Lab in Manila will conduct the chemical analysis and mineralization test from the core samples. Magnetometer surveys have revealed three additional deposits at the Nagsabongan site and two new deposits at the Dayap site, bringing the estimated total known iron mineral reserves to over 120,000,000 metric tons at an estimated FOB value of $5,400,000,000.00 and CIF China value of $8,160,000,000.00.
There are several steel groups who have shown strong interest in signing long term off-take agreements with Cotton & Western Mining, Inc. for the grade A magnetite iron minerals of Mindoro Island. The company does not wish to comment to any group until late October of 2006. Mr. Cotton is in Manila for a meeting on Friday afternoon with one large steel group from China, and will return to Mindoro Island on Saturday and be out of communication for ten days.
Upon completion of the chemical analysis one of the deposits will be chosen for immediate opening, and construction of the heavy haul access road will begin in October with an estimated rough cut finish completed in seventy days. Management has set a goal of making at least one small 15,000 metric ton shipment of magnetite lump before the end of December 2006 and is working diligently to this end.
For more information on Cotton & Western Mining, Inc. please call (281) 232-8410, or visit the company website at: http://www.cottonwestern.com.
About Cotton & Western Mining, Inc.:
Cotton & Western Mining, Inc. (Other OTC:CWRN.PK - News) is a U.S. corporation structured to produce and sell iron ore on a global scale. Currently, the Company is engaged in several mining activities and provides the Asia Pacific Steel Manufacturing Sector with high grade A raw crude iron ore products.
I'm using a Net Income assumption of 15% of gross profits and a P/E of 20, which both seem like reasonable assumptions to me compared to their competitors ALREADY on major exchanges. I have already built in the assumption they'll move up when they can. If you wanted to give them the benefit of doubt that they could accomplish 20% Net Income, then the share price would be valued (compared to how peers are currently performing) at $2.66. Either way, the company appears to me to be a few years away from these numbers, assuming all goes well.
I just don't believe that picking up the major clients they want will be as easy as they claim. Of the other revenue streams you mention, I only see licensing as having the potential to significantly impact revenues. I don't even know what "special ops security" means...
That said, I think this looks to be as good a LONG term pink investment as any, but I would not expect this to get anywhere near $1 in the next year.
Congrats on selling AURC on the rise. My latest CWRN purchase was with AURC money as well. But I'm over $20k down on AURC right now and I don't want to sell at this price unless it's to take a tax loss. I hope the news today is the start of regular communications again from AURC management. The lack of details on the acquistion is curious to say the least, but it sounds perfectly in line with AURC's strategy. Dilution is the concern. Who knows?
I'll definitely free up money from somewhere to pick up more CWRN before November...
Ha! I'm too cheap. I don't have that privlege...
Well, I don't think KCN is a basher. He's a disgruntled shareholder. And there IS a difference. I'm a bit disgruntled myself these days.
Such a weird ride. Every day it feels as though we'll end down and almost every day we end at .10.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
Let it stand for another two weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if you get it. What's more important? Getting it at .06, or getting it?
I think Labwire would need gross profits (annually) in the ballpark of 100 million to fetch a $2 share price, and probably revenues close to 500 million. Feels like a LONG way off with the current numbers. That's about 1/4 of the total defined market for drug testing. But who knows? Maybe the canines will sell well, too...
Even if I don't see Labwire as large of an opportunity as some, I do think it's at least a safe bet for gradual growth at the current price.
BTW, nice string of summary posts in the Labwire header. Very informative.
Picked up 20k more shares this morning at .065. Seems like a good price to add these days.
Two assumptions you should know when I came up with my Labwire price:
$4 mil in gross profits over the next year.
Net Income is 15% of profits (based on CPS and FAVD having 24% and 14% respectively).
If they choose to go after large clients and ignore the small ones (their spoken strategy), then maybe their expenses will be lower and net income higher, but I have my doubts about their abilities to really pull that off. In my years in working in corporate, large companies have no interest in being guinea pigs for new technologies.
But I think my growth estimates were pretty aggressive. If they can meet what I estimate, then the stock should be valued at about .50 by next summer if folks think they can keep the growth up. It kind of depends on how the next couple of quarters look.
The biggest red flag I see is that a lot of their growth this last quarter came from "canine security", which does not appear to be a core business. What does canine security have to do with drug testing anyway?
Of course, you can always ride the wave of speculation. That's probably the way to go in the pinks. I think NNYG is the better speculative play because we know less about the business. The less we know, the more we can speculate!
eik,
I did look into NNYG this past weekend and I also peeked a bit into Labwire, since the CEO's seem to be buddies of some kind.
My thoughts, if you are interested:
I'm having trouble putting my finger on exactly what NNYG is trying to achieve. They seem to have their fingers in a number of pots and it makes me wonder about their focus. The MB is excited about the nuclear technology (which I admit I have not looked closely at), but there's been a lot of PR's about acquiring oil fields and financing from China (I assume that's the purpose of the vague Chong Consulting references?). Sure, it's all energy related, but I don't get a good sense of where they think their future lies. It feels like Jon Ginder is throwing a bunch of darts and hoping one hits. He may have a master plan, but it isn't apparent in what the company has communicated. I think I need a little more insight into the master plan before putting my money there. The company seems to have altered their agenda from the gameplan stated on their website.
As for Labwire, I did my usual calculation for a revenue generating company, like I did with SLJB, and assumed they would continue to grow at a rate of 50% a quarter. I came up with just under .10 a share, so I would say they are fairly valued at the current price. That's not to say they couldn't lay the smack down with some suprise contracts and explosive growth, but given the numbers they've shared over the last two quarters, I'd say they've found their correct value. When Ginder says he thinks they should be valued at $2 to $3 on current revenues, I think he's WAY off base.
Seems like two companies run by good people, but there's nothing I saw to tempt me to pull the trigger on either. I'd say that if everything turns out to be true with SLJB, that would be a better investment - but at this point it's also riskier.
Also, the share structure on NNYG seems tight, so any significant news could move the stock. That, for me, would be the ONLY reason to put money in it at this point.
LOL. Aren't we all?
<I suspect the JV partner is waiting on Parkin right now for something.>
I accidentally sold 12k shares a few days ago. I put in a sell order for the shares in two of my accounts (small portions of my 250k shares) but then decided against it. I thought I'd removed both sell orders, but I guess I only removed one. I was surprised to get an email confirming my sell a couple days later. Oh well. Now I only have 240k shares.
Maybe it's just idiots like me who can't keep track of their sell orders. LOL. I was so sure the price would go up after I sold some...
IHDR, in your research, did you get a specific indication that the JV would be announced to shareholders? They may develop 10 JV's, but if they don't announce them the shares won't move.
Thanks.
It looks like the clothes currently being shipped to stores are now pictured at mashculturelab.com in the Lookbook. A mixed bag, I think. Some real nice pieces (hoodies and some of the girl's tops) with some that I cannot imagine selling very well (I think the men's jackets look awful...).
Nice to see some of the product.
Spending time with family? Ever since Skilling said that stepping down from Enron it's become a big red flag for investors. It's certainly weird to say it within one week of taking the post. Why not announce it when he took the post that it is a temporary appointment?
Sulja is a strange and entertaining stock. I'm lovin' it. Congrats to those who sold today. To those who haven't, good luck!
LOL. I'll be ecstatic when my .25 (averaged) investment in AURC earns me a 2% gain!
You guys do realize that The Onion is a joke newspaper, right?
I haven't looked, but I'll take a gander this weekend.
I'm also keeping my eye on SUUB (clothing retailer that seems of the verge of major distribution) and ISBH (young bottled water company that has a VERY attractive business model - biggest problem, no liquidity in the stock). I've held off mentioning them because I haven't been convinced the timing is right yet for either.
But yesterday SUUB announced that they finally shipped their new Mash Culture Lab clothing to Virgin Megastores and Dr. Jay's. If they do well there, large orders will follow. May be time to buy very soon.
Problem is, I'll have to dump some AURC at a major loss to free up the money. <sigh> I almost did that today, but I'm torn...
Better than selling too late, which is what I'm more frequently guilty of...
A word of caution and advice. Note that I do not own SLJB and so take what I say with as much salt as you like (but watch your blood pressure!).
In previous posts, I have shown that IF SLJB's pro forma numbers for 2007 come to pass, this stock would be properly valued, compared to the valuation of peers trading on major exchanges in the same industry, at about .36.
It would make sense that the finiancials about to be released would be significantly lower than the pro forma numbers, which makes certain kinds of assumptions about business opportunities and growth rates. The numbers could be significantly lower.
If you are holding for the long term, it probably doesn't matter what the numbers are. But if you are looking for an exit point, right before the release of the financials might be a good choice. My prediction is that the numbers will be lower than the current hype is suggesting they will be, causing a sell off.
While providing financials audited by a verifiable source will be a great sign long term, with 500 million + shares floating out there (and probably even more with air shares), the likelihood that the numbers will be high enough to support the current share value is VERY slim.
My take. Take it for what it's worth.
Huh? This has NOTHING to do with my question. Never mind.
That's right, and its a "project engineering" company. From the 2003 annual report:
Acquisitions during 2003:
Zabaikalzoloto Project
In October 2003 the Group acquired 100% of OOO Zabaikalzoloto Project for total consideration of US$ 0.1 million.
The company is licensed to perform construction engineering design work and is fully used for providing services
within the Group.
They use the company to performing mining engineering and construction. I HARDLY think this is to Highland as Zabaikalgeoprom is to Aurus!
I was just wondering if there was any connection. If are not able to shed light on that, it's fine. I just wanted to ask.
But that doesn't shed light on my question and your answer is not true. Highland bought a construction company, which I ASSUME was formerly a subsidary of Zabaykalozoto. Your characterization of Zabaykalozoto does not match what Highland says about it. And please don't make the argument that Highland is hiding its true identity and purpose...
2c, a question:
The company you mentioned at the bottom of your message, Zabaykalzoloto OOO, which was purchased by Highland Gold in - if I remember the Highland Annual Reports correctly - 2002 is a construction company that builds mining structures.
The Aurus website says: The Mining Corporation Zabaikalgeoprom was transformed from the state owned enterprise “Zabaikalgold“
I know that "gold" in Russian is "zoto". Does this mean, in your opinion, that Zabaikalgeoprom is the SAME company as Zabaykalozoto, minus a few subsidiaries such as the construction company purchased by Highland? I'm kind of assuming the sale of non-mining assets was done prior to, and in preparation of, the new business plan developed with RSM Top Audit to create Zabaikalgeoprom.
When I do research, I'm never quite sure if Zabaykalozoto is just the earlier state-run incarnation of what is now within Aurus.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.
When is the ASM?
Thanks. I wouldn't have expected them to open the Yukon before the Philippines, but I was wondering if they would at least acquire the land for later development. Maybe they decided the best way to do it was using Philippine revenues (and maybe placements of an increased share value...)
Looks like the in-store date will be very soon. Maybe I should free up some cash now...
So has everyone gotten their $15 a share yet?? LOL.
Has anybody here gotten an update from Bob on the Yukon properties?