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Lots of public trade rags (behind paywalls) - just like the gossip column STAT.
SK
TTE: I'm sure I could dig up some stats on seed, algae or fish oils to help dear Santa? What's his preference?
I hear it all works well as chimney lube. But are we looking for consistency of the effect or effect size on our sample of one?
;-D
JL: Quite a story, isn't it? I have a friend who worked for Pan Am back in its glory days.
For some reason this is reminding me of the marine vet in the PBS "Vietnam War" special by Lynn Novick and Ken Burns who explained why Vietnam vets tend to hold Jane Fonda in such high disdain - it was because her activism made it impossible to keep her poster on their walls. I'd never thought about it that way before, but it made sense. It's like why you don't want a politician speaking before a ball game. Wrecks the fun.
JL: Such a shameless flirt. Zest is best, right?! ;-P
LB: Shhhh, we know who won right?
Nuke'em: Yowsa. You gonna let that go unanswered?
"SK"
A proud swim Mom
Nuke'em: LOL - good one. You got me!
AMRN ANTHEM
Nope, not a guy. I'm a girl.
I think in terms of probabilities.
60-70% chance of settling and paying dividends out to UOIP is my guess.
Just a WAG, but I like our odds.
LT: I'd be ecstatic if $5.00 pps.
Do you have some stats on cable companies and their tech having SEP designation? Otherwise I see this as being a tall order for Chanbond to be able to negotiate with the 13 to get a SEP - seems like an additional ask beyond just a set value for the patents. Makes sense when companies are all cell phone companies with some similar tech. So, if Comcast had some of Chanbond's patents for example and Cox had another - then I could see some horse trading to arrive at a SEP.
I skimmed this EU article for some SEP #s - pg 27 and even then its estimated the SEPs declared are likely too high. And it mostly looks like cell phone tech.
EU commissioned report SEP
My experience has been that usually industry players do not want the same exact standards as everyone else (except if they are trying to play catch up)- then what is there to distinguish your brand from brand X?
Standards organizations for all industries, of course, are always trying to corral industry players to skim a cut for themselves to "support" such designations as you say. They are viewed as yet another "toll."
I just don't see why either side would want it in this case? But, I'm curious about how you see a SEP being settled since you brought it up. Maybe, just maybe if Chanbond wins the Cisco appeal, I'd see an opportunity for a SEP designation. Otherwise it strikes me as a bit of an ephemeral dream.
TIA--
"SK"
Thanks for posting the evidence for the rumors. This is a solid move by AMRN.
Nissui (Nippon Suisan) usually trades back and forth with Maruha Nichiro for the top spot as largest seafood company in the world.
You may be familiar with some of Nissui's US food brands - Gorton's, King & Prince, Fishking. They have large fishing interests for Alaska Pollock in the US Bering Sea. NOAA TACs
Nissui has the muscle and logistics network to effectively source vast quantities of crude fish oil from all over the globe (NA, SA, AU/NZ etc) for refining into an EE EPA API.
Exciting times.
Wondering about your thoughts - continuing on the buy-out speculation bar room chatter:
It seems there are the following large O-3 API refiners in Europe/US (skipping Asia since the two primary sales markets really are the US + Europe) -
1. BASF: as you've detailed before their inopportune for AMRN, $895m purchase of Pronova in 2013, to acquire 2 production facilities in Norway and Denmark giving them about 2500 mt of additional API grade O3 mid-concentrate capacity on top of the Callanish/Equatec plant capacity in Scotland - maybe their only high concentrate capable plant of 96+% purity levels? if they haven't upgraded the Billerup and Sanderfjord plants for additional prdxn capacity?
2. KD Pharma (merged with Marine Ingredients in 2016) located in Bexbach, Germany & Bethel, PA - API for generic EE EPA 96 in the US and Japan
3. Pelagia - EPAX - Nordic Naturals (ITC suit)
Small honorable mention:
4. Trygg Pharma - 50/50 JV between Aker BioMarine in Norway and Lindsay Goldberg PE firm in the US (in 2012 acquired an API O-3 plant in Lundbeck, UK for $20m according to Chemical and Engineering News) . I can't see on Lindsay's website if they ever sold their stake?
Back to #3 Pelagia - back in January of this year Pelagia announced that Bjorn Refsum was rejoining EPAX where he had been ten years prior (when EPAX demerged from Pronova). He had been over at Nordic Naturals as CEO since July 2014 and also consulting for Copeinca copeinca corp website (Peru). Brief history - China Fishery banko - Copeinca
EPAX history timeline: EPAX history Ownership changes: 2007 - Austevoll. 2010 Aker and Lindsay Goldberg acquire. Then in 2013 they sell to FMC for $345m - EPAX had plants in Aalesund, Norway and Seal Sands, UK.
In 2014, there was a consolidation of Egersund Fisk, Norway Pelagic and Welcon into "Pelagia" - the CEO - Egil Magne Haugstad. In Aug, 2017 they acquired EPAX - sort of like a homecoming.
So, while BASF has Pronova...Pelagia has EPAX.
I find all this interesting because Austevoll and Kvefi own Pelagia 50/50. Some of the richest people in Norway own Austevoll and Kvefi - the Mogster and Witzoe families. Arne Mogster is the CEO of Austevoll. These families are very involved in farmed salmon - and chasing the growth in aquaculture. Kvefi's parent company and investment fund Kverva control Salmar (3rd biggest salmon farmer). Pelagia has 6/7 rendering plants (in Ireland, Scotland, etc)
The finished markets, in other words, are like the way some on the board have been doing options hedging the risk between the in & out of the money calls - hedging one market - direct human consumption vs aquaculture. They are two sides of the same coin.
Regardless of the great GIA or BO debate, I'm thinking that potentially BP aren't the only players interested in some kind of involvement with AMRN. It could be that some form of investment comes out of Norway. For example, maybe AMRN has another share offering in the next couple of quarters...and Norway's $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund gobbles them up? Norway sovereign wealth fund holdings
There are a lot of different possibilities post 11/10. Norwegians know offshore oils, so I wouldn't rule them out.
Ay mamacita!
Nukem: Gas bicycles - that's awesome. I want to try one now. Are you able to get insurance on it? Last year I bought a Cannondale Kinneto and find its perfect on the steep hills around here and winds off the Puget Sound. According to my insurance agent they won't insure under a homeowner's policy because it has a motor. Auto insurance won't cover e-bikes because they don't have to be licensed.
Smarterer: More on "pro-resolving." I reviewed a video of a presentation given by Dr. Tom Van Dyke of Harvard Dental School successfully reducing/reversing periodontal disease on rabbit teeth (in 2016 using O-3s) and they were going to try it on human teeth. 8 min in he goes into a lipid mediation discussion inc. aspirin triggering effects on a CVD O-3 study. I can't get the link to work here on Ihub, so I won't post it.
He mentioned collaborating with a colleague Dr. Charlie Serhan - so I looked him up and found this presentation from 2017 where Dr. Serhan explains resolvins and their active actions (agonists) and makes clear at the end that he's expanding the discussion beyond fish oils - to these compounds biosynthesized from them that can help resolve inflammation and infection. Dr Charlie Serhan resolvins
Posts on here back in May 2018:
DiTD: #127825
JL: #127822, 127831 (mentions aspirin)
BioB posted on 3/16/18 post #124251 links to a few studies out by Brigham & Women's hospital regarding specialized pro resolving mediators that mention Dr. Serhan, too.
Fascinating and helpful videos for me at least. And then we will we arrive soon enough at what Dr. Bhatt may add to these discussions on Nov 10th with VascEPA.
Thanks C2 for posting - great pop culture filled analogies to make the concepts understandable.
JT: I guess we have to wait for Oct next year re: STRENGTH. I agree with your last two sentences.
I've had it explained to me that the chemical forms are like various generations of tech with a slide showing at the base of the pyramid natural TG forms for the EPA/DHA. So, kind of like this--
4G: Emulsifications/PLs
3G: PLs, FFAs
2G: EE, rTGs
1G: natural form TGs
There's crossover between the tech generations and no consensus on the levels & which is better - all debatable. Eating a sardine would be the lowest form of tech in other words - but, its not "worse" & may also be much better than the later "tech" for the average healthy person because we would get all the peptides and other natural substances according to registered dietitians. (Like allergy "tech" - Benadryl is 1G (indiscriminate effects) while Claritin/Zyrtec/Allegra are later versions)
The board debated this topic in Feb 2018 with the posting chain
DitD: 122238
JL: 122245
Also, I can't remember the post # maybe somebody else does where the statisticians here on the board posted/commented on the wide error bars on I believe this study: 47 person emulsified cod liver oil study Dr. Calder reviewed and summarized 12 studies published between 1990-2015 and their showings on which form was "better" or "tied" on Slide 20 and went on to quickly review his unpublished small study with Dr. West on emulsified forms. Calder ppt
This has been covered in Nutra Ingredients Nutra magazine Aug 21 2018 cod liver emulsification study I like Dr. Harris' quote at the end to which form is better based on speed of uptake "So what?"
To JL's point - it first matters to marketers. GSK sponsored that cod liver oil emulsion study which makes sense. Everybody is looking for the edge with a new story to spin for growth, just like every other industry. I agree with Dan and HDG and others on here regarding AMRN which has an ideal Hollywood set-up - lipid regulator ver. 2.0 in other words, like another Star Wars movie. Investors don't have to think too hard - they figure its going to be a blockbuster (like Lovaza was).
--------------
I also agree with JL post #151371. It's about reducing systemic inflammation as UC Davis did with a horse that had laminitis and was dying which then started walking around again and was fine after treatment (but these were DHA epoxides):
Dr. Bruce Hammock horse article
Capt. Joseph R. Hibbelin, MD has done a lot of work on SI reduction in the neurosciences with Omega 3's as well (too little DHA in the brain and all the mental health issues it seems to cause). For example, people who consume high levels of fish regularly are 20% less likely to have major depression.
The arachidonic acid cascade really seems to be correlated with our poor Western diet in terms of Omega 3s for a lot of people. I've read Dr. Joseph C Maroon's book "Fish Oil: The Natural Anti-Inflammatory" and it covers much of this same material. Amazon - Dr. Maroon fish oil book He was/is still? the Pittsburgh Steeler's team neurosurgeon (U Pittsburgh).
Anyways, that's what I've been able to glean.
No complaints from me if it ends up being in the $1-$2 range.
Go Carter Go!!!
Scruff: .49 was my estimate.
Whoever is closest - they get to buy the rest of us a round of drinks in Monterey, right?
I've been into Moscow Mules lately. Tail Up Goat in DC has good ones.
"SK"
Gorgeous shot -did you sign the register? I hiked Mailbox Peak back in 2014 in a pouring rain - was the only one on the trail on a weekend day.
LOL. Literally, I just sat down on Air Alitalia Flight 1794 from Palermo back to Rome. The Godfather tshirts were everywhere. Sicilians - this morning there were people singing, making music and dancing in the streets - just general merrymaking!
I hope Reduce-IT gobsmacks all the EPA (and DHA) denialists.
People keep telling me they don't think AMRN is going to win at the ITC. People were still surprised in Rome this week that the appeal hadn't been dismissed. Boarding a flight now, but anyways it would be a surprise to a lot of us if they win.
OTOH - I really don't think it's going to matter AT ALL.
Reduce-IT matters.
I heard Dr. SanGiovanni give this presentation earlier this year on AMD.
Dr. SanGiovanni research presentation on eyes EPA + DHA
There were a couple of other research presentations from that Seattle conference on DHA and EPA that I also found enlightening. If I can find them next week I can post if anyone is interested.
And just for the science cool factor-->
Somebody referred me to this 6 yr old video by Dr. Crawford that theorizes how DHA allows us to have such sharp visual acuity (usually DHA research focuses on brain and eyes). Dr. Michael Crawford - DHA & Quantum Mechanics who knew?
Thanks, Smart
I've seen higher total annual scripts referenced as I mentioned, so I kinda figured same as IRI or Nielsen for other industries, but wanted to be sure.
Awesome that Sam posts that. That kind of data is very $$$.
Hedging probably occurs, but on what scale? And it's going to be company to company (= limited data). Yes, O-3 market was growing and seemingly doing well until the 2013 prostate study came out; plus, the patent cliff. Then a barrage of negative press continued to report on even studies with wonky methodologies.
If you haven't heard this 2013 interview with Prof Bill Harris of Univ. of South Dakota on this very topic - it's worth a listen: Bill Harris interview
I hope that R-IT and VITAL turn things around. Nov 10th. Whoop Whoop!
Omega 3's. 30,000+ studies and counting.
Thanks, fun to be here. I've enjoyed reading your posts this week, too.
Krill, quick sketch -
Biomass: nobody really knows so wide estimated ranges for Euphausia Superba - usually though 379,000,000 to 500,000,000 mt
Annual catch: around 300,000 mt
Oil yield: 3% likely closer to 5% since Aker typically uses best-in-class separating/processing equipment (but I'll be conservative)
EPA from oil yield: 12-13%
300,000 mt x .03 = 9,000 mt oil
9,000 mt x .12% = 1,080 mt EPA
Typical market prices for KO (crude krill oil, naturally semi-refined): $25,000 mt
Source on catch CCAMLR (scroll down to see chart on historical catch) www.ccamlr.org
Source on EPA yield from Aker (see slides 21 and on) - aocs.files.cms-plus.com/Meetings/Affliated/N.Holem_%20CompositionofAntarcticKrillOil.pdf
Lots of intriguing fractions from krill being researched and developed...
With typical price ranges from $1600-$3600/mt for high O-3 grade crude fish oil (CFO), every producer will chase the DHC (direct human consumption market) when the bids for oil increase. The walls will fall.
Over the course of the next few years, aquaculture's demand could easily drop to below 50% and keep falling. They won't be able to pay the high prices.
Sam, I've tried to go back and find any post that explains the abbreviations, sorry if board has answered before but I couldn't find post, just to confirm for my ignorance -
TRx - total
NRx - new
Ref - recurring?
Also, in trying to reconcile #s, can any of the pharma experts on here explain what these numbers include/exclude?
I'm asking because I assume Symphony Health and IQVIA (IMS) don't include all scripts, right - or do they? I know with IRI and Nielsen data for example, that depending on the report ordered and also who participates that not all sales are captured. So, for example, club stores and Walmart sales may not be in the scripts so sales can look artificially low unless you account for their estimated (but hidden sales).
On an annual normalized basis then for say, 2017 - did AMRN have about 394,000 or 406,000 scripts? And then 40+% growth expected for 2018...
Just trying to wrap my head around all this.
TIA
Ok, I'll take a wild swing here - and list my key assumptions:
1,000,000 mt annual world fish oil production x 18% EPA yield =
180,000 mt of EPA annually
4g daily dose of Vascepa x 365 days/yr = 4g x 365 = 1,460g per patient/yr or .00146 mt per patient/yr
180,000 mt of EPA / .00146 per patient = 123,287,671 patients per year
Critical assumptions above:
1- 1,000,000 mt of production - just an average, yet tends to range from 750,000 mt to 1,200,000 mt
2- 18% EPA average. This is not yielded by all fish species. Different fish and conditions provide different amounts of O-3s. Aggressive yield, in other words.
3- Above does not include EPA from krill or any of the other pilot or early stage commercial alt-sources of EPA
I'll post a separate message on my krill EPA estimate
----------------------------
Does the board have a consensus then regarding the total US market as a very rough estimate of potential V demand then should most stars align favorably (I understand below excludes global potential)?:
15 million people with CHD
78 million people with HBP
20 million people with diabetes
Total 113 million potential V patients in USA alone?
Hilarious! I hear ya. Was with a frog for two years myself. Originally thought it would go the distance. Not so much. Tout de meme -
Non, je ne regrette rien
I asked Willie Loh this year at the GoEd Exchange (he is heading up the Montana trials for Cargill/BASF) whether it was likely any of the O-3s from the GMO plants would be used for direct human consumption. Specifically I asked about whether it could appear in our O-3 enriched canola oils on supermarket shelves. (Cargill has a large edible oils division up in Canada). He didn't think it very likely for now anyways - Cargill is focused on it as a feed ingredient replacement. He said the main reason is because of GMO. They have to play the long game working to change consumer perceptions, while in parallel going after feed markets that are an easier win in the short game, in case opinion doesn't shift on GMOs.
In case you wonder how hard it is to shift the landscape on GMO's - look at Aquabounty GMO salmon as an example of what camelina would face. Sen. Murkowski went after "transgenic salmon" or "frankenfish" by inserting into the FDA's FY'18 appropriations bill language in March 2018 to help protect wild AK salmon in her state, by getting the FDA to block the importation of gene modified salmon eggs even though the FDA approved the sale of GMO salmon under a NDA in the US back in 2015. Without the eggs, AquaBounty can't grow the GMO salmon at their new plant in Indiana approved by a FDA NADA a month later in April. Nice, right?
All that said, then, GMO plant based O-3s will mostly likely go to feed ingredients. What should happen then over the next decade is marine based O-3s will shift increasingly to human ingredients for supplements, nutra, functional foods, parenteral nutrition, and pharma.
Marine and seed oil prices behave with high volatility just as fossil fuel oils. Some contracts are longer term - maybe a year plus. But, most contracts are done on a semi-annual basis with some oil held back for the spot market. If you are really interested in this topic, you could reach out to Thomas Mielke of Oil World. Oil World Biz He's a great guy and knows the detail going back decades, but he will try and get you to subscribe. There's always the UNFAO and FAOSTATs as well.
Any producer wants to maximize their return for a limited fishing quota, so they will write contracts with whatever market is willing to pay the best price. Aquaculture feed makers have dramatically reduced their marine oil inclusion rates from 30+% down to the low teens or below depending on the farming region and raised soy, palm and rapeseed oil inclusion rates as substitutes. So, the farmed salmon you buy at the grocery store may only have 5-9% O-3 content now instead of the 11-14% a decade ago. Feed makers know they can't pay the prices that the DHC markets can, so that is why they are investing heavily in alternative land based sources of EPA and DHA.
Potentially higher EPA prices would increase AMRN's COGS, showing on their income statement. I've been busy and haven't had a chance to review their financial statements, but that's up next before trying my hand at the options as DanfromChicago has written about.
Great board and I'm learning a lot as time, interest & understanding level permits. I didn't even know about Ihub until May and thought it was only for penny stocks, but did a board search when the R-IT news hit the AP last month. Very cool.
Thanks to all.
LOL! That sounds about right - some brie for dessert. Did you know that French elementary school lunches all have a cheese course - every day they have to sit through 4 courses. Mais oui, Europeans need their alcohol. They complain when they come to the US that not all of our hotels have bars. Also, Europeans eat a lot more seafood than we Americans do. The French consume about 35 kgs of seafood annually per capita - likely helps their EPA levels throughout their entire lives. Only Spain and Portugal in the EU consume more seafood. The French also have a 500mg offical RDA on O-3s. We need one in the US where our consumption of seafood is an abysmal 15 lbs/year.
Very cool - didn't know there was an American Hospital in Paris - was your fellowship there in the springtime - that's the best! I have a cousin on the right bank - I forget which arrondissement. I was incredibly lucky to have been under the Eiffel Tower to usher in the new millennium and I've partied a time or two in Le Marais at night...shhhh.
Looking forward to the next couple of days in Palermo before heading home later this weekend.
I don’t know too much about global public health. I believe the French paradox is tied to wine drinking. I saw something on 60 Minutes a long time ago on it. So, the theory goes they get a protective CVD benefit from regular red wine drinking for their highly saturated fat consumption (= wine & cheese really do pair well together!).
Yep, your friend at BASF is right; supply of crude fish oil (CFO) to make more EE EPA isn’t a current constraint to Amarin.
Iffo 2018 conference in Rome just wrapped up today. Status quo on crude fish oil raw material supplies used to make V heading into 2019. AMRN was mentioned by one presenter specifically, with a tepid forecast of maybe another 60-80k of CFO directed to DHC markets on basis of R-IT results. People are waiting to see if demand kicks in before adjusting forecasts more dramatically upwards for 2019 as growth rates have been flattened on O-3 negative media way too often.
One interesting issue on the regulatory side is that the EU is taking a harder line on sanitary regulations regarding keeping separated anything produced where the final product is for human consumption. So, if the raw material is produced in a plant that doesn’t keep two physically separated lines of oil - one for human and a separate one for animal (food-feed divide) then the EU wants to stop allowing the importation of non-compliant fishoil. The EU hired DG Sante to conduct an audit of the Peruvian fishmeal and fishoil plants and for awhile this past summer SANIPES (like a Peruvian USDA for fisheries, stopped issuing health certificates, which are necessary government issued documents to be able to export food and feed products across borders, so that Peru wouldn’t be banned permanently). insert-text-here. People are watching this closely, but the EU bureaucrat, sounded hard-nosed about it.
This might be a tad interesting for AMRN as a possible (likely minor??) constriction point on production ramp-up because a lot of the refining know-how for high concentration fish oils resides in the EU, 96% purity from AMRN’s API makers listed in their 10-K - BASF (Callanish, Scotland former Equateq plant could be OK since will be outside of the EU soon except if they continue to follow EU rules upon Brexit) (not sure how/if BASF is cooperating with Pronova BioPharma if at all here (maker of Lovaza) - Norway follows EU regs), Novasep (France is in the EU). Nisshin (and Nissui) (Japan) and Chemport (South Korea) would be fine as I’m assuming their plants are in Asia. Hopefully, the Peruvians and EU officials can work through it quickly.
Always take FO capsules with food, preferably fatty foods for maximum efficacy. Avoid taking them before eating in the morning along with other pills just to get pill swallowing out of the way.
Maybe easier to see in a ppt:
Prof Maki Digestion & Absorption Feb 2018 PowerPoint
I’ll respond on your point 6 -
No shortage of crude fish oil. That won’t be a bottleneck. Globally, about 1,000,000 mt of crude fish oil gets produced in a given a year. If an El Niño year then it drops down to maybe 750-850,000 mt of crude fish oil.
Of that global total, say about 30+% comes from Peruvian anchovy oil with high/cheapest concentrations of EPA/DHA at 18/12. Chile also produces cheap commodity anchovy and sardine oil. In 2017 76% of fishoil went to aquaculture feed manufacturing. 17% to direct human consumption (DHC) and the other 7% to miscellaneous (like pet food). Maybe DHC trends up to 20-30% while aquaculture will trend down if Vascepa demand grows quickly.
The yearly average from 2013-2016 of crude fish oil production from Peru - 121,100 mt. Chile for the same period 111,200 mt. The USA - 89,100 mt.
Let’s assume a 7 to 1 refining ratio (varies a little depending on the process and crude oil used), but just to give a back of the napkin estimate- 7000 mt of crude to produce 1000 mt of EE EPA/DHA.
The API manufacturers will raise their bid prices to draw more crude oil away from the aquaculture feed supply chain. And they will - logistics are already in place. In the next 2-3 years small quantities of algae oil will come online, but won’t be priced competitively for a long time.
I do agree that a real problem will be the API manufacturers- 1) what are they going to do with all the excess DHA? So, will Amarin pay a price for their high EPA concentrate that will compensate for the excess DHA inventory? They likely will have to at least for awhile. Supplies of DHA for infant formula and eye supplements for AMD are in balance. 2) initially some Vascepa supply kinks are likely while the API manufacturers have to ramp up production to a new level if new RXes for patients scale quickly next year if Nov 10th results are good.
I’m not even sure I’d call it skepticism. More like study fatigue. Cochrane. ASCEND. The studies point every which way. Agree, most MDs are not nutrition experts. If in a hospital setting - they may hand a person off to a registered dietitian. At home, consumers may be relying on “nutritionists” like Gwyneth Paltrow to detox on her GOOP diet.
And hurrah! More studies on Nov 10th in Chicago - back to back - VITAL and Reduce-IT. It’s going to be exciting.
All n-3s PUFAs are highly prone to oxidation. It’s more difficult to measure oxidation in krill oil because the color from the carotenoid -astaxanthin (a natural lipid soluble anti-oxidant)- makes a lot of the typical P-Anisidine tests read incorrectly. Typical fish oils later refined to make EPA all require some kind of antioxidant (AOX) like tocopherols (Vit E) be added. What you refer to as a negative on the part of the krill oil refiners is actually a positive - you want to keep the oils colder and frozen is even better to inhibit that oxidation process.
Most of the anchovy oil (biomass is usually estimated to be between 10-12 million mt except the population drops off during El Niño years, when the Humboldt Current upwelling —for the anchovy’s plankton food source, is stopped by equatorial kelvin waves making their way across the Pacific from AU) used to make EPA is caught and brought back to a shore plant to be rendered along the coast of Peru - by either artisanal or industrial boats (fish sits for much longer periods of time). The smell alone in places like Callao will tell you all about peroxide and Anisidine levels. Thus, the anchovy oil tends to have higher FFAs than factory ship processed on board fish oils. However, these peroxides and FFAs can be removed via several refining methods including short path distillation (SPD).
My only point, once again, is that krill oil is fine as a standalone oil for consumers (bioavailability/efficacy of phospholipids vs TGs vs EE vs rTGs points aside as I doubt we’ve heard the end of the debates because the research is ongoing) and could even be an alternative source raw material to make the EE EPA. Krill is considered to be the Mercedes of the marine n-3s. However, it’s not chosen, say by the likes of Marine Ingredients in API manufacture, because crude krill oil costs more than crude fish oil. Not because it is “inferior.” There’s nothing any more scammy to it than any other source of EPA/DHA. Claims made by the supplement world can be ridiculously unsupported, of course, but so unsurprisingly are a lot of marketing, investment, and valuation claims.
EPA from krill oil could be sourced by Amarin’s suppliers to make Vascepa. They won’t however because EPA from anchovy oil is cheaper.
I was only taking issue to your implication that “krill oil is a scam.” It’s like saying “anchovy oil is a scam.”
Amarin’s key here is the 4g of EE EPA. That’s their special sauce. We all should be taking fish oil in whatever concentration makes sense and supplementing with statins, if need be as Bill Harris says.
Yes, Nov 10th will be very interesting!!
Krill oil = phospholipid form and generally unconcentrated vs commodity fish oils used to make EE forms (like Vascepa). Advantage of krill is the bio-availability. The marketing has been filled with puffery, a big yes. But, not a scam per se; it’s just different and hard to lay out all the differences for consumers when reasonable scientists disagree on bioavailability as this is still new science - 10-15 years old. Aker BioMarine is building a 3rd krill vessel. The smart money still sees a future in krill oil: https://www.akerbiomarine.com/news/aker-biomarine-to-build-new-krill-vessel.
EE form - bioavailability is enhanced when eaten with a fatty meal - uptake goes up in liver (lipase enzyme action to break down ethanol) and gut endothelial walls.
rTG form - excellent bioavailability of the EPA fatty acids (better than EE form generally speaking)
Here’s a newer study on DHA uptake that covers some of these bioavailability issues:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986500/
Yes, farmed algae is out there, too.
No, that's incorrect. Crude fishoil to be refined will come from wild fisheries stocks. Most crude fish oil is rendered from Peruvian anchovy or sardine stocks because they naturally have a higher content of these fatty acids (about an 18:12 ratio of EPA to DHA) so its cheaper to refine and purify to the ethyl ester minimum content requirements of a given customer. When rendered, farmed salmon trimmings don't yield the same EPA/DHA content (same for most other species of fish)- or here what AMRN needs - the EPA.
Eventually, GMO canola plants (rapeseed) that are in trial right now in Montana by Cargill will likely be able to supply, but that's assuming Americans overcome their revulsion to transgenic crops. Jonathan Napier in the UK has also been conducting trials for years, but its unlikely Europe will in our lifetime allow this into their food supply based on negative perceptions (think Prince Charles campaigns). Pharma may escape the negative perception, but Greenpeace & Oceana campaigns create a lot of negative social equity.
Jonathan Napier-
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/fish-oil-could-one-day-come-plants-180952239/
For now you are looking at Peruvian raw material supplier companies like Tasa, Hayduk, Exalmar
http://tasa.com.pe/our-company/business-units/fishmeal-fish-oil.html
http://www.hayduk.com.pe/en/
http://www.exalmar.com.pe/en/investors/
or in Chile - https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2018/03/30/omega-3-market-still-offers-room-for-big-expansion-major-fish-oil-exporter-says/
Also, see http://www.iffo.net/
Or http://www.goedomega3.com/
Then you need manufacturing facilities that are approved for API manufacturing. That's a higher standard than for supplements manufacturing. Last I knew a few years or so ago they had 3 approved plants. Not sure the latest on which manufacturers in the US they are going with since they have been limping along focused on their ITC case and then appeal.
https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/38173893-794e-4ccf-9362-13a24128add5
Thanks. I was over in Asia for work for a week and then up in Canada.
I like reading everyone on here, too. Some of the comments make me laugh (as in, if someone says for the thousandth time "go do your DD" - when DD on UOIP is a bit like being in the Sunday flea market at Alexanderplatz while looking specifically for a WWII era wool cap).
I'm learning as I go - it's a bit of a mini-quest and the legal dox some of them anyway, are more entertaining than passive index retirement fund contributions, eh? It's CDMA prior art. No's it RF. No CDMA.
It's fascinating as little details spill out to adjust and refine my thinking even if now the best remaining option seems - to watch & wait. Good idea today on posting to the board, too if people want to buy or sell shares. Like a Craigslist for our shares.
Sunny and 65 here in Seattle right now. All good looking out over Elliott Bay!
And yes, GoT fans - still hoping that "WINTER IS COMING" for the 13.
How exciting! I've been following their ITC case since last year and waiting to see the REDUCE-IT. This news is EXACTLY what Amarin needed to help Vascepa sales.
Anchovy stocks down in Peru are back to normal after the last el nino = plenty of oil feedstock to refine to EPA.
It will be off to the races for Amarin from here on out. I only wish I had gotten in last year, it will be pricier to do so now, but still worth it!
Agree, as shareholders we have 2 fundamentally significant rights.
#1 the right to elect directors
#2 the right to sell shares
From #2 that is one of our customary 2 ways to profit - sell our shares or receive dividends from residual profit after all other claims have been met.
Our second right was dented this past week. That's a "cost" in our freedom as shareholders and possibly to trade in the run up to a trial if this gets there.
It would have been my strong preference for UOIP to have remained on the pink sheets. However, I can see how for Carter (& Leane and the inventors) as majority shareholders that particular right is not as meaningful as it would be to us retail investors. They also are closer to the action and involved in the negotiation talks: knowledge is comfort. We don't get the benefit of that knowledge to make decisions with respect to sell timing. Mostly, I see it as a pity because I somewhat viewed our chances of market exuberance in the lead up to a trial as providing me more than a negotiated settlement. That scenario analysis is as (in)valid as any other. One's viewpoint is likely size dependent - just as it is for those with inside holdings. Those with enough invested might not want or be able to take it all off the table (like the insiders) and hence the angle from which they are "judging" others who maybe have grocery spending or maybe a vacation invested here or perhaps coinage somewhere between the cost of a cayenne and bugatti.
I'm curious with respect to diversity of citizenship - with UOIP incorporated in Delaware, but with the terms of the agreement (Misc. - Section 8.2) with Chanbond noting that governing law would be the State of Texas - eastern district --as minority shareholders, Texas would be pretty rough on us anyway (see Ritchie vs Rupe 2014). Delaware does a much better job of mitigating minority shareholder oppression. So, not to fear for those concerned that minority shareholders have too much power (social responsibility advocacy I believe is the usual complaint).
Any of us speculating in this UOIP shell - have with respect to this ticker shown a preference to invest for skewness in portfolio returns like buying an out of the money call option. This week I reminded myself of that old bumper sticker - "Gas, grass, or a$$ - nobody eats for free."