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No GP, that's on me, not gates. I'll wear the village idiots hat for that one today. But there there will be other days. And the acquisition is about production , that is what counts.
I appreciate the offer, it that time of year for annual meetings but my travel is limited. I will invest substantial time looking into LWLG after I find out what this halt is about.
I do not doubt the technology, I do not know enough either way.
I think POET and LWLG have run in parallel in many respects, having been through the ringer, it's a learning process. I just have a strong suspicion that POET is finally at the true commercialization stage, even though they seemed to be close for years. And I think LWLG has a longer wait, but the wall of diminishing returns in technology may change that.
No, I'm thinking more like 400% by the end of the week.
But like I said, if POET does well, it will wake up the dynastic players that good things can come in small packages, and they will take seriously the most viable developmental technologies and accelerate them. So a POET win here is good for LWLG as well, IMO.
You did better than me with PLUG. Still kick myself now and then over that one.
POET is quite a different beast.
DB you remember PLUG, well watch this.
Glad it helped, sorry if I sounded short, been a busy few days... We should know more tomorrow,
Proto, read this in detail. It is about the detector, the announcement, and a further discussion about the announcement.
https://rainerklute.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/outstanding-photodetector-beats-competition-by-multiples/
I don't have time to spoon feed you, utilize this and the Agoracom site for future DD it's all there.
" Don't mix wishful thinking with facts". I'm not. Fact: Commercially produced detector functions with 20x responsivity to best available technology at comparable or lesser cost. Even if everything that will follow fails, which is very, very unlikely it is a billion dollar company. Mass production/ supply chain is already built.
See my note on LWLG board, I think you will do very well over the near term. Good luck here and there.
The most compelling reason for holding LWLG at this time may be that, when POET news comes out, light will shine on the best potential solutions as bigger companies realize these small companies may be on to something after all. That's not hubris, it's just the truth that large companies pour billions into research and have done almost nothing beyond a 5 year research cycle because of obsolescence.
Not unlike biotechnology, where small companies rise rapidly into favor, so it can be with tech. At the very least I expect LWLG will see 85 cents again by end of summer. 40% is not bad at all.
But my biggest regret having owned POET for two years was failing to trade the swings as the likelihood of a buyout is always less than it seems, and the technology is never as far along as we want to believe. I expected POET to be where it is now a full year ago.
Steve said"yes I believe so under current conditions. that changes if a large name with revenue is attached. Lightwave has a marketcap of 40M in the same market and has also the develpment stage status (no revuenue). Both aim for big players coming in. In a way I'm, as an speculator, better off with LWL+"
So many things wrong here. Overpriced? Detector business alone is worth 1 billion and theirs is commercially proven, not developmental and available by end of year. That component market alone in one year is worth more than $5, CAGR 20%.
POET is no longer just developmental, LWLG is still trying to figure out what they have, at what metrics, at what level of reliability and at what production cost. POET is at least 3 years ahead in those respects alone.
Both aim for big players--wrong-- POET has them. Is Tony Blevins Apple VP of Procurement on POET advisory board to waste his time? Doubt it. Finally, as a speculator you are not better off because you have nothing but the potential of a future. POET has arrived, and have just begun. And you cannot buy POET, because it is halted, for news. Come on, man!
It was announced yesterday that it was halted pending news.
If it was just them announcing a halt, they would have announced why yesterday.
Someone else, likely a very influential company, is involved.
Proto, you need to catch up on your own time. There is no delay for the AOC, that was specifically addressed by their COO. Go to the Agora board and dig through Rainer's posts, he discussed these misinterpretations of the NR with them.
It's all there. Good luck. I know rickface should be smileyface today.
Proto, that's not accurate. From their September call with updates on the February call. Product by end of year, 1q17; detectors, AOC (I believe this may be the announcement) with NRE and a contract to supply a major player. Strictly spec tho.
06:56 – Ajit Manocha: ?...This company is about to rollout an unrivalled optoelectronic device and process platform that enables low power, minimized size and component cost for smart optical components. From the most sophisticated extreme environment satellite applications to the most everyday consumer appliances, the world is increasingly dependant on optical components. [noise] … presented optical module-on-a-chip process with integrated digital, high-speed analog and optical devices on the same a chip, trying to be the next industry standard for their fabrications. Specifically applied to short and very short range, short reach optical transceivers for example, we believe our process could enable up to a 10X reduction in power consumption, component cost, and form factor.
07:59 – Put another way, we could make what’s on a wafer up to ten times cheaper, smaller, and more energy efficient. And we believe we are the only company that can achieve this level of disruption across all three axes of cost, power, and form factor.
08:18 – Our initial market focus is data communications, one of the high-growth sectors in the world right now. Over time, our platform may well extend to smart products ranging from high-reliability defense, aerospace and energy applications to consumer devices.
I think its revenue related, they haven't halted for milestone news in the past. Whatever it is it will be good!
Wish I knew but for their AOC I expect either Facebook ( watch to Katherine Schmidtke's forum on YouTube), Google, Apple. These AOC will replace copper at comparable costs and at 1/10th power consumption. Please DD it lots of great info from folks who know this far better technically that I do.
Most likely NRE for VCSEL. Detector results 3 weeks ago were crazy good (20x) current responsivity. If VCSEL results are half as good it's still an order of magnitude and disruptive. I suggest reading their 2/16/16 cc transcript.
I don't want to peeve your mods, I will check in on the poetf board for any future questions. I will say that I firmly believe that whatever it reopens at will be a fraction of its value in 12 months.
Xxxxxxx = POETF
Maybe they are finally beginning to put together the whole picture. Products that will not just compete, but components that will dominate entire segments of a 55 billion dollar industry, starting within the year.
Rainer Klute's excellent blog about the photodetector and it's significance.
https://rainerklute.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/outstanding-photodetector-beats-competition-by-multiples/
The detector market alone is actually a $700 million market now, with 20%+ CAGR foreseen. They will likely sell these "simple" components with the caveat of restricted use to agreed upon applications. I suspect they do this with FETs and VCSELs, but possibly as stand alones or restricted use, as they roll out the increasingly complex monolithically integrated devices, leading to opto electronic integrated circuits. Cost of manufacturing appears to be at or below current products on market so this will not be a cost prohibitive solution.
The detector performance, size, packaging, fractional power and lower cost of manufactured goods requirements appears to be an anticipated characteristic with future devices as well.
The former CEO of Global Foundries, now POET Exec Vice Chairman (code for high level consultant and business relationship expert) calls this "a game changer".
Proto, the most important part of this is "These results from the first set of detector wafers produced at the production foundry provide critical proof points for POET to introduce a differentiated detector product to the market later this year. "
These are not lab results, these are commercially developed products. This market, up to a billion dollars, VCSELs similar size and growth. The key is that the platform is now proven commercially and Wavetek is ready to roll out the devices using MOCVD for top end production and quality.
These are building block components which along with HFETs will become the first monolithically integrated optoelectronic electronic transceiver all on a single chip. That will be used to produce Active Optical Cables (AOC). All of these products will be introduced in with the next year. They are the first of an ongoing pipeline of increasingly complex onto electronic components/devices. Stop by Agoracom dot com sometime and check out the links library , tons of DD there.
Proto, I will respond to your questions about the detector on the poetf board. Thanks.
You get it GP.
LWLG may have a future but it is still years away. Time to quit hoping and praying and act.
Xxxxx to introduce a differentiated detector product to the market later this year.
One that functions at 20x the current industry standard. Why are you waiting for something that will take years, if it ever works. My last attempt to wake you all up. Easy enough to figure out who Xxxxx is if you try. DYODD.
Great to hear strik, hope that JRJR has paid off some already.
POET technology is proven, now the ramp up to commercial devices is underway, I do suspect there will be some early adapters we will start to hear about as this evolves.
The caliber of people that have left major career positions for POET is amazing, and this continues. It is a sign that this is real and imminent.
So many articles come out about companies doing this or that with silicon and or photonics, but all of it remains in development, years or more from reality. This will all begin within the year for POET, so exciting.
IMO, bear raid on Thursday, orchestrated professional selling Thursday to scare some cheaper retail shares out. On Friday triggered stop losses and fear and those pros who sold on Thursday bought back on Friday. Canadian share prices were much more volatile than US due to volumes, I'm guessing the action was initiated by Canadian firms.
I have seen this several times over the years before a stock is about to move up. Someone wanted as many shares they could obtain, by any means, as quickly as possible.
Also, the early filing of the 20f seems to point to someone wanting the books as up to date as possible, often a sign that another entity may want to enter into some sort of equity arrangement.
Whether there is an imminent event or not, it is clear that progress toward a commercial prototype is near or at a successful juncture, what happens after that should be nothing short of exciting for investors. Hopefully, the wait will have been well worth it.
WisePol Econ, Technologies emerge from thousands of failures, occasionally followed by that one big success. My first rule is don't fall in love with a developmental company, "date" it, until they are about to go commercial, ride the highs and lows of expectation that drive the share price.
If you consider an idea in 4 stages, concept, theoretical proof of concept, prototypical proof of concept and commercial proof of concept, LWLG is probably in stages 2-3, in that it continues to develop and evolve toward that ideal prototypical demo. Where that places it in terms of valuation remains highly subjective. Expect more ups and down until that leap to stages 3-4 create recognition that drives a valuation in line with technological application versus expectation.
And in answer to your last question, "yes".
JRJR up another 36% this week, just starting. Now 70% in the past week.
What amazes me is that a millions shares exchanged hands in US and Canada, something was arranged I believe.
New article on Seeking Alpha, their YIAH division is on fire!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3956305-jrjr-networks-may-successful-incubator-never-heard
Nope, though I did sell 10% last week to buy some jrjr. Not sure what this was about as volume high in both Canada and US. Will let you know what I hear.
Uh, I think he means roulette.
Great move today, this has the potential to be a multi bagger over a very short period of time. The fun has just begun.
JRJR up 30% today, short squeeze begins. Expect another 30% tomorrow, more next week. Lots of short shares to cover.
JRJR the short squeeze began today. 30% + gains tomorrow.
2.5 million short shares. Time to pay up.
Not at all, one of our German POET investors is not attending since the CEO is not speaking, it is transferable but cannot be cancelled. So he'll get what he can for it.
For anyone interested in attending the CS international conference, a place for sale on eBay. It's legit.
http://www.ebay.de/itm/CS-International-Conference-2016-Brussels-March-1st-and-2nd-/191810423497
Yeah Rick, you probably got in at the right price at the right time. Congrats.
A quick recent history might explain the decision to go after the short reach connectivity segment first. 1) You don't walk into the big room (Intel ET al) and say "we are taking over the industry", especially when you are years away from doing so. 2) The early 2015 milestones (ring oscillator to demo performance and the VCSEL) were fresh from the lab, and the value was strictly proof of concept, so market was not going to respond to those. 3) Venkatesan and company saw an immediate market need for a 'relatively' simple product that could be introductory to the technology, prove it commercially, and potentially disrupt that segment, an auspicious entrance at very low risk.
The POET AOC market, if as successful as they anticipate, sets the table for the more complex products to be successfully brought to market. It's a very sound strategy.
If that announcement is significant enough to propel toward a Nasdaq listing, might want to hold on for a pause (two tries at a new high). All depends on what the news means. Good luck x.
I have stopped making guesses at timing, only way to stay sane with these stocks.
If you are looking for a trading opportunity, I don't think it has the distribution to expect a quick move up without substantive news. If anything, if volumes starts to decline it might get played down a bit. Best to buy and hold or wait and jump in as soon as real news breaks, but that will require a chase.
Thanks Proto, interesting times for sure. I'm in POET long term, and if I can free up some cash, might take a trading position in LightWave leading up to the meeting. I like that POET has cash to last well into 2017 with revenues anticipated to eliminate need for further dilution. Always a big concern for non rev companies.