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Zen...re "...no way they waste these last nine days." It's not only up to "they"......we ALL have to step up to the plate at this time...imho
Sincerely,
Jas
Matt25....re share price.....I sincerely believe that we are so gun shy that we have become convinced that the bridge to the promised land is simply an illusion. It's funny actually....I've got a friend of mine who I brought into the wavoid fold recently.....he's actually accumulated a very large position in the company and can't believe the tremendous potential that exists infront of Wave. Everything he hears and reads points to trusted computing. Meanwhile...those of us who have been wondering in the desert for over a decade are too unwilling to trust what we are seeing unfold before us.....we can only handle so much disappointment
1) Revenue from Dell's fees are nearly getting us to the BE point. As the conversion from the D series to the E series is finished...the larger the quarterly lic. revenues will be from Dell.
2) As SEDs and SSDs increase in numbers...Wave will generate roughly 7 dollars/unit with the added possibility of getting an additional 50 dollars/unit
3) Acer....Revenue stream should start to add to the bottom line along the same timeframe as Dell did a few years ago.
4) Cybersecurity.....The Obama Administration has placed this topic front and center. If there is any doubt about this point....the fact that the cybersecurity czar will report to the President has and will bring this sector to the forefront of the investment community.
5) The "ADMIRAL EFFECT" The fact that such an individual has decided to be affliated with this small company from Western Mass. has caught the attention of a lot of people. Think about something....the branch of the goverment that is going to be the first to implement trusted computing will be the DOD. It's nice to have someone associated with Wave who can pick up the phone and talk directly to Gates. Does anyone think that investors have realized that fact and the potential ramifications???
There are signals all around us that the 'PERFECT STORM' is about to strike....but we wavoids have been wandering the desert for so long....we can't even see the huge WAVES coming ashore.
Sincerely,
Jas
re share price....after WAVX hit 1.07...I placed an order to purchase a small block @1.08.....does anyone think it got filled eventhough the ask at the time was 1.08??? So now I'm sitting on 1.09....I've only managed to purchase 600 shares so far...amazing
Sincerely,
Jas
pontdugar....re old high....the old high was a market cap of roughly 2 billion dollars back in early 2000 (3/00) With todays outstanding number of shares.....We would get to that market cap with a share price of roughly $30/share. Personally.....I think that in order for us to get past a 500-750 million dollar market cap.....the number of upgrades per quarter have to be north of 150K upgrades/quarter.
Currently, we are nearly at breakeven with the lic. revenues being generated by Dell. If we are able to get 100K upgrades/quarter at ~50 dollars/unit....that will translate to roughly 5 million dollars profit/quarter. 20 million in profits divided by ~70 million shares gets us ~.30/share. .30 x 20(pe)= share price of 6.00/share. A multiple of 40 gets us to 12 dollars per share and a mutltiple of 60 gets you to 18 dollars per share. So before we all start talking about 1000 dollars/share...lets wait for the FIRST 100k upgrade cycle. Do I belive we will see tripple digits.....yeagh...it's possible. But...lets take one step at a time
Sincerely,
Jas
CM re the "Admiral Effect" An interesting aspect in regards to the stock action has been the number and size of the block trades since thursday!! Just by looking quickly at the charts on e-trade.....There have been block trades of 85K/38k/32k/14k/16k/40k etc..... Granted....we're not talking about huge sums of money...but it is a HUGE change from our norm. Could it be that some of the "Admirals" friends and associates in the venture capital world are begining to take a serious look at Wave Systems????????? If so...those that think they will buy when the stock retreats maybe somewhat dissappointed.
Sincerely,
Jas
Alea.....re digging up the past....While I understand the point of those who do not understand history are bound to repeat the same mistakes....What we have been doing the last few days borders on the side of stupidity!
We have never generated as much revenues as we did last quarter.
We are going to be +/- 500,000 dollars of break even THIS quarter
We are close to finalizing a couple of significant size deals in the next month or two.....yeagh I know...according to SKS
We just one of the most significant individuals to this nations security over the past few decades just JOIN the Wave team as an advisor to the BOD!! Do people really believe he would have put his reputation on the line if Wave did not have a very important product to offer???
All this discussion amounts to nothing more than back ground noise at a time when our prospects have NEVER looked brighter....FWIW
Sincerely,
Jas
Alea.....re digging up the past....While I understand the point of those who do not understand history are bound to repeat the same mistakes....What we have been doing the last few days borders on the side of stupidity!
We have never generated as much revenues as we did last quarter.
We are going to be +/- 500,000 dollars of break even THIS quarter
We are close to finalizing a couple of significant size deals in the next month or two.....yeagh I know...according to SKS
We just had one of the most significant individuals in regards to this nations security over the past few decades just JOIN the Wave team as an advisor to the BOD!! Do people really believe he would have put his reputation on the line if Wave did not have a very important product to offer???
All this discussion amounts to nothing more than back ground noise at a time when our prospects have NEVER looked brighter....FWIW
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma....While I understand your comments about the past....I would suggest that you're making the same mistake as Bluefang and the rest of his friends. I do not disagree with your feeling that SKS has more than simply exagerated at times. Having said this.....the important point as far as I'm concerned is that the expenses for running the day to day operations is now nearly being met by Wave's revenue generation. All that is needed for us to get to the next level is for the Hardware FDE market to start taking hold. There is NO other company that is in bed with the major players in this segment as is Wave. It will not take a huge number of sales to be VERY meaningful to our bottom line. At some point the TPM market will take off. As others have said on multiple occasions....the driving force for TPM activations will come from the feds.
The bottom line is this....we have NEVER been in a better position than what we currently find ourselves in. I sincerely believe that the next 6-12 months will be very profitable for all of us!
Sincerely,
Jas
DD...having other companies in our space is fine...it simply draws more attention to the sector. Having said that....remind us WHO Dell pays ~7/drive to??? If anyone can point to a pr from another company in which Dell PAYS them for their products for every encrypted drive sold...I'll be a little more concerned.
Sincerely,
Jas
Barge...re "thank god S.Sprague had the smarts to reject the idea of allowing any wavoid on the board of directors." This statement is so telling....I just don't know where to start....
Could you tell me one thing the BOD has done in the past 5 years that has protected the shareholder???
What's wrong with a MAJOR shareholder demanding a seat on the BOD? EVERY MAJOR COMPANY IN THIS COUNTRY ALLOWS FOR THIS....why not Wave???
Jas
GO...RE "DATA AT REST" I was at the data storage conference in Irvine ~2 years ago when DART was making the initial rounds. It was decided by the feds at that time to purchase software encryption products. Seagate and therefore Wave was NOT even in the running for this particular contract. To say this is old news is an understatement. Now that OPAL has been agreed upon...the days of the software encryption guys are numbered...imho Well..it's not only my opinion....but also that of a senior Seagate executive whom I was sitting next to during the conference the following year.
Sincerely,
Jas
Kisamura...."all these years and not a single new client using Wave software....." REALLY?? Not a SINGLE new client......I guess I'm thrilled that you're watching out for us!! BTW.....who do you think is accounting for the increasing deferred revenues???
Sincerely or not,
Jas
Telstar...welcome back!! It's been a very long decade +...hopefully we will continue to make progress in the number of clients which over time will add up to significant monthly orders. SKS needs to give us guidance as to the number of clients that have agreed to purchase security products from Wave....granted that they maybe spread over a number of years. At some point...the shear number of companies deciding in Wave's direction will start to show up in our share price....IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
Zen re market cap min.....Is it 30 days below 35 million...or is it TEN days?? Therefore, I'm expecting another delisting notice to be issued shortly.
Sincerely,
Jas
re 9.9%....The person in question has been a Wavoid for a LONG time. We all should be greatful to him for putting his money behind his convictions regarding Wave. Now...if I was a basher thinking this company was on the verge of going under because of the credit crunch.....I would be somewhat concerned that a individual investor who also happens to be a Wavoid has such deep pockets. Makes one wonder how many shares have been locked up in such individuals hands
BTW...one of my friends who participated in a recent round was buying more shares in the open market yesterday. When the tsunami arrives...the true number of shares available in the open market will be a lot fewer than people think....imho
Sincerely,
Jas
Micro....re the "WHO"
To be honest....I have no idea...well I have an idea...but I have no facts to substantiate anything regarding the "WHO"
Since the market downturn...it's been very obvious that institutional investors have sold any of their assets and have parked themselves in cash. Pick nearly any stock and their graph look identical to any other major company in the Dow or S&P In regards to Wave, although the total institutional ownership really never got passed 16-20%...the total number of shares was in the millions. Since their ownership has now slipped into the single digits...a large number of shares were brought into the market place. This combined with the ongoing funding rounds created the perfect storm as it pertained to depressing the share price.
Over the past few weeks...a number of interesting developments have taken place that have fostered a feeling that Wave is not only going to reach breakeven status in the near term...but that she was going to be a "player" in the arena of Trusted Computing. I believe that both of these points have created greater investor enthusiasm.
So...what does all this mean?? Heck if I know ....I think that there are a number of longs that have continued to accumulate shares that were being offered up by the various institutions. Additionally, as the Opal specs became public..."new" money could be parking itself in Wave. What percentage of the recent move is from "new" money?......I have no idea.
Do you have any ideas?
Sincerely,
Jas
Ron....Don't you ever get tired at looking at the glass being half empty?
1) In a prior post...you mentioned that Dell constitutes the only major PC OEM that has signed up with Wave....That is factually incorrect...both the number 2 and 3 OEMs have signed up...the #3 OEM is obviously ACER. Why is Acer important? It's the first time an Infineon client has replaced Inineon with a Wave product in the business lineup.
2) Govt. contract....Wave is now working on their SECOND govt. consulting contract regarding Trusted Computing......can you name another company that Wave is competing against that has been awarded such contracts?
3) Opal Specifications.....Can you name another company that is capable of managing both the TPMs and ALL of the SEDs in the manner in which Wave is capable of doing?
4) TPMs are here to stay....Why do I say this...simple....there are OVER 250,000,000 TPMs that have already been deployed. How many of therm have been activated??? Less than 30,000??? YET...the industry giants continue to pump out additional TPMs and products that take advantage of the existing base of TPMs....WHY????? At some point these TPMs WILL be turned on.....and Wave will be ONE of the companies that will benefit from the decision to activate TPMs....IMHO
Yes you are correct that as of today...the ROI has been non-existant. That is not to say that they will not benefit from this point forward.
Sincerely,
Jas
Sniper....So...WHO do you think is buying the shares?? According to your theory...we know WHY....but we don't know the WHO....any ideas?
Sincerely,
Jas
Waverider....re response to Sniper....I guess I just duplicated your post.....I read your post after I responded to Sniper.....what do they say about great minds?
Sincerely,
Jas
Sniper.....re share price...
Could the recent run-up be due to:
1) Let up of the institutional selling as per the decreasing ownership numbers seem to suggest?
2) The recent decision of Dell to increase the royalty payments up to ~.90 cents/unit (e-series) thereby significantly increasing the quarterly revenue numbers from Dell. We could get close to break-even simply from the Dell numbers by themselves.
3) Opal specs.....Could people be buying Wave shares ahead of the potential increase in FDE sales...oops...I mean SEDs
4) ~$750,000 govt. contract to consult on the topic of trusted computing. Do you know of any other company competing against Wave that has been awarded similar contracts???
Could any of the above be a more realistic reason as to why the share price has begun to move than simply the "unknown" players that are manipulating the share price. BTW....let's get real when I talk about a upwards movement in share price.....Let's not forget we are still talking about ~.30/share pre-split......Let's not get too excited.....
Sincerely,
Jas
Vacationhouse....."May they live long and prosper" You continue to surprise me....never would have taken you for a trekkie. Thanks for your constant DD over the years!
Sincerely,
Jas
Fullmoon...re OPAL...interesting that Western Digital is on the list....but....Samsung still appears to be MIA
Sincerely,
Jas
Amy...Your dad is ONE of the main reasons why so many of us continued to hold onto our shares for the past few years while we wondered through the wilderness....thought you should know how much he means to us in this community.
Sincerely,
Jas
Wavxwizard.....re "far fetched".....IMHO...it's not farfetched at all!!! It has been Wave's plan to not only get the various agencies to adopt Trusted Computing....but to also take the next step and mandate those requirements onto companies doing business with the federal government.
Sincerely,
Jas
Rachelelise...re share price appreciation...I agree with your post. Wave should be cash flow positive THIS quarter. That is a rather significant milestone for WAVX. More importantly, the company NEEDS to demonstrate it is capable of selling upgrades in ever increasing numbers. Given today's economic meltdown....it is a very rare market that has nearly unlimited growth over the near term. For example, there are north of 250,000,000 TPMs in the market space with roughly 20-50k upgrades??? If the new administration is serious about cybersecurity...then they have to finally get serious about the capabiliites of TPMs!! We know that the NSA is ALREADY on board.....we just need the new administration to start paying attention to the NSA.
In addition to the TPMs....the new OPAL specs from the TCG will finally get the ball moving on hardware FDEs. We've read recently that Fujitsu plans on having the OPAL specs on all of its 5400 and 7200s by the end of the second quarter THIS year. With Seagate/ Fujitsu/Hitachi on the OEM scene....we should finally begin to see reasonable FDE volumes...IMHO. We still need to hear from Samsung and Western Digital...they seem to be MIA up to this point.
Sincerely,
Jas
AA...re share price....are you sure it's related to Barge's Blackberry 1 news...or is it possibly related to the ramifications of the upcoming Opal release from TCG...as per the article Vacationhouse posted last week???
Sincerely,
Jas
Ron...The funny thing is that as someone who has been invested in this stock for over 11 years and have accumulated a very large stake....I seriously do not see the evidence to link the various dots you and others are writing about. We are years away from what is being discussed. This is NO different from what some were claiming would be a tsunami of consumer TPMs that would overwhelm the TPM revenues from enterprises....ofcourse they were claiming this all the way back in 2006-2007 when there were those of us who were repeatedly saying that the consumer would not even come up to bat until 2009 at the earliest.......FWIW.
Sincerely,
Jas
re Bid support...FWIW...It's interesting watching the significant bid support at levels much higher than the last pp....
Sincerely,
Jas
XXXX...re new agreement....If Dell ships between 6-7 million laptops/quarter....and the majority of those are the latitudes...this deal will take us darn close to breakeven status by itself....IF Wave can get their burn around 5 million/quarter...imho
sincerely,
Jas
Trustco....IF SKS could have done a deal...he WOULD have! IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
Doma...re WXP...."only in a few months" I don't need to tell you that the credit crisis has EXPLODED over the last few months. Asset valuations have been thrown out the window over the last 60-90 days irregardless of what asset you are talking about.
SKS infact told us that he was going to make a decision one way or another over the short term. He said this in the last CC. IF they had been successful in selling off WXP...the news would have leaked and our shareprice would have reflected that fact. The shareprice has been stuck in pergatory over the last few months...therefore...the share price was telling us the ONLY avenue available to SKS at this time....IMHO I'm glad SKS has decided to become serious about cost containment....
Sincerely,
Jas
XXX re WXP...If a sale can't be done over the next few weeks.....it MUST be mothballed!!! IMHO....We do not have the luxury of keeping its doors open when ENERYTHING must be done to protect the core.
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco....I have NO idea what on earth you are talking about!!! I would suggest that YOU go back and re-read my post....what is the underlying theme in that post??? I'm sure YOU can figure the answer to that question.
Sincerely,
Jas
MIB...re WaveXpress....I've reached that conclusion based on a couple of points....
1) SKS said in his last CC that they are very serious about cost reductions during Q4
2) As far as I can tell....WaveXpress is not bringing much cash into the company at this time and can't be considered a core business at this moment at time.
3) Possible sale of WaveXpress....If this was about to occur...I would think that we would see a bump in the share price as that news began to leak out.
Considering all the above....It's my gut feeling that the ONLY alternative available to management at this time outside of a sale of the unit....is to infact mothball the operations.
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco...Ever heard of the 2008 Olympics?? Was WaveXpress involved with the Olympic broadcasting for NBC??? Did NBC use MSFTs technology??? Could a sports network use WaveXpress for broadcasting any sporting events??? Is WaveXpress up for sale???? Any potential relationship regarding the topics....naaahhhh As far as we know...WaveXpress is about to be mothballed until some point in time when Wave has additional resources to dedicate to WaveXpress.
Jas
Cliffdweller...re Hardware encryption...You're obviously correct. The intel Danburry technology should come out in Q1 09. Initially...as I understand it...will be confined to Desktops with plans to expand that tech to laptops. Interestingly...Seagate has announced plans to extend their FDE technology into their Barracuda line up which as you know is aimed at the desktop market.
The important point to keep in mind while considering the events of the last week....there is FINALLY a big push by the other Disk drive companies to come out with their versions of the FDEs. This is important because it signals to the market that HARDWARE ENCRYPTION is here to stay. Folks....Wave receives ~7 dollars per Seagate ENCRYPTED drive that is sold by Dell. In addition to this....Wave stands to potentially upgrade these sales further. An important note regarding FDE sales is that the MAJORITY of these sales are choosing to further upgrade thses devices.....FWIW
Sincerely,
Jas
Re Fujitsu.....Now...that makes THREE disk drive manufacturers we are associated with....SEAGATE...TOSHIBA...and now FUJITSU!!! If one believes that HARDWARE encryption will become the NEW standard...then this is GREAT NEWS!.
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco...Once again you've managed to bob and weave in every direction in an attempt NOT to answer a question. YOU stated that you believed that the Vendors would cause an isolvency and bankruptcy of Wave Systems to develop. I simply requested YOU to add some color to those comments. For what ever reason...YOU seem incapable of poroviding any evidence to support YOUR statements. IF you continue to do so...people maybe constantly reminded of Chicken Little every time they see your name...FWIW
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco...I have no idea what's in your mind...why don't you spell it out for us???
Sincerely,
Jas
Trustco...."Vendors reactions to insolvency and forced bankruptcy" Would you care to elaborate on your comment?? Which Vendors are you talking about that will force bankruptcy?
Sincerely,
Jas