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GLBL day high
Console gaming growing in popularity among all ages
By Jacqui Cheng | Published: March 05, 2007 - 05:09PM CT
Console gaming appears to be on the rise, according to a new report from market research firm Nielsen. The data came from Nielsen's sample of 12,000 television-using households in the US, which found that although the number of "television households" has only risen by 1.6 percent since the fourth quarter of 2004, the number of game consoles in those households has risen by 18.5 percent in that same period of time.
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The new data is significant because many studies previously included PC gaming in their results. Critics of those studies often argued that the gaming data was skewed largely by the number of casual gamers who play Solitaire and Minesweeper while bored at work, but this new study is focused solely on console gaming. The results are also not self-reported, Nielsen says, and are monitored via the company's National People Meter (NPM)—the same system used to generate ratings data for the television industry. However, the data is not without its own problems, as Nielsen does not differentiate between actual gaming use versus other use of consoles, such as DVD-playing or web browsing.
By the end of 2006, there were 45.7 million homes with a console, and 148.4 million people had access to at least one system. Nielsen also found that the use of "connected" consoles—consoles that connect to the Internet—has grown steadily over the years to 4.4 million, even before the introduction of the PS3 and Wii in late 2006. Systems such as the PS2, Xbox, and Xbox 360 appear to have made connected consoles commonplace in the home, and online gaming services are becoming more popular than ever, as evidenced by the success of Microsoft's Xbox Live service.
The typical gamer profile from Nielsen's report was not surprising: the majority were male (77.1 percent), but with a fair amount of diversity in age. 75.8 percent of boys—12.9 million—age two through 11 in TV households gamed on a console at home for at least one minute in the fourth quarter of 2006 (the average time spent on a console for that age group was 2 hours and 30 minutes per day, however). From the male 18-34 age group, almost half—16.1 million (corrected)—used a console, with an average of 2 hours and 43 minutes of game play per day. However, consoles were also fairly popular among certain other demographics, with 11.5 million females between 18 and 34 gaming and 10.1 million females from 2 to 11. Even the 50+ crowd isn't afraid to get their game on, with 50+ females out-gaming their male counterparts with 3.9 million gamers, compared to the males' 3.5 million number. Nielsen's data unfortunately does not indicate what types of games each group favored.
Nielsen estimates that at any given minute during the Q4 2006, more than 1.6 million people were using an in-home console system. Saturdays were also the most popular gaming day of the week. "In the average Saturday minute during January 2007, there were 2.6 million persons two and older using a console," says the report. Popular gaming hours during the week, however, are at various points in the evening—during the hour of 10-11pm for the male 18-34 demographic and 8-9pm for the male 12-17 demographic.
New systems, especially those that appeal to the "casual gamer," will only help household console adoption rates continue to grow, and all of this data will help companies fine-tune their advertising for both video games and other gaming-related services. In-game advertising is growing, with giants such as Google working to get in on the action in order to better target certain demographics. Nielsen does not currently have data that breaks down different types of consoles, nor does the company's current data track individual video game titles, but the company plans to start with its NPM system later this year.
Mcz is now distributing software products
http://www.madcatzstore.com/store/Software
New Playstation3 products
http://www.madcatzstore.com/store/PlayStation3
Here are the Wii controllers that MadCatz was rumored to be working on:
Available 9/28/2007
MadCatz Wii Wand Remote Controller
http://tinyurl.com/2tjejl
Available 6/29/2007
MadCatz Wii Funchuk Controller
http://tinyurl.com/3b7n9j
Nielsen: US Gaming Console Ownership Rising Rapidly
http://www.playfuls.com/news_09_4089-Nie...
MCZ CFO bought 50,000 shares recently at .80
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MCZ
Time to Buy Satellite Radio
By Richard Suttmeier
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/7/2007 7:42 AM EST
This column was originally published on RealMoney on March 6 at 1 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
Investors who have speculated on satellite radio should consider buying both Sirius (SIRI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and XM (XMSR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) now. The valuations of both stocks have improved, and this share price weakness has improved the ValuEngine ratings on these names from sell to hold. But two other, more speculative angles on satellite radio -- a bet on the value of the "real estate" orbiting the Earth, and on the value of the satellite spectrums -- makes each worth holding separately, whether the merger happens or not.
When Sirius and XM announced their merger Feb. 20, ValuEngine had sell ratings on both companies. If the deal is approved (currently hoped for by year-end), it would combine two companies that haven't been able to make it into the green on their own into a stronger whole. My speculation is that regulators will approve the deal.
If the Justice Department and Federal Communications Commission approve the merger, XM owners will receive the equivalent of 4.6 shares of Sirius. The FCC would have to allow one company to hold both satellite radio licenses. Former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft is lobbying for the National Association of Broadcasters to prevent the deal -- in an about-face after having offered his lobbying firm's services to XM -- but I don't believe his efforts will present a serious threat to this piece of business. Both XM and SIRI are equally attractive. If the deal is approved XM shares are exchanged for SIRI shares at a discount.
Now, while the combined company could succeed by reducing costs (letting Howard Stern and other high-priced talent go elsewhere), I'm more focused on improved valuations. Both Sirius and XM have given up the price gains both enjoyed following the merger announcement -- XM traded at $18.25 in the Feb. 20 premarket and Sirius at $4.20, which seemed unsustainable even then. Both are also now relatively cheap by historical standards.
Now ValuEngine has upgraded Sirius to hold from sell Monday. Sirius had been rated a sell since Dec. 8, 2005, when I wrote about the stock's overvaluation. Shares are now cheap at half the price: Sirius closed Monday at $3.37, down 54.5% from its close at $7.42 on Dec. 8, 2005.
Sirius' fair value is now up to $4.73. That makes the stock 28.7% undervalued at Monday's closing price. Investors with a speculative flair (more on that below) should consider adding to positions on weakness to my monthly value level of $2.99 and quarterly value level of $2.64, and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky level at $4.60.
ValuEngine upgraded XM to hold from sell on Feb. 21. The stock's fair value is now at $28.97. That makes the stock 53.5% undervalued at Monday's $13.47 closing price.
Investors should consider adding to positions on weakness to my monthly value levels are $12.52 and $12.22, and reduce holdings on strength to my quarterly risky level at $20.18. If XM shares were converted to Sirius stock today, the equivalent price would be $2.93, for a 13% discount.
Call satellite radio a spectrum speculation. In the late 1960s, I worked as an engineer on projects related to the lunar module at Grumman. Those experiences lead me to believe that the satellites currently operated by Sirius and XM have been designed to do more than they do currently. Remember that the lunar exploration module, or LEM, saved the lives of the Apollo 13 mission astronauts, helping return them from an orbit around the moon.
It's possible that the Sirius or XM satellite spectrums could be used for other products, such as Internet connectivity, cell phones or video, which could turn the combined entity into a long-term home run. Or the combined company could keep one of the satellite radio licenses and sell the other.
Consider speculating on the value of the real estate orbiting the earth. As an engineer, I would bet that both Sirius and XM have overdesigned the technology, and that the spectrums each controls can be monetized more than they already are.
TTWO killing the shorts here.
Apple and Google working on "many more" projects
By AppleInsider Staff
Published: 05:00 PM EST
Google chief executive Eric Schmidt said Monday that Google and Apple are continuing to collaborate on many new initiatives.
Schmidt made the comments at the Morgan Stanley Technology Conference in San Francisco while responding to a question concerning rumors that the two firms were working on a tablet-style personal computer.
Without commenting specifically on the rumor, Schmidt reportedly said Google and Apple are "doing more and more things together."
"We have similar goals, similar competitors," he added.
Thus far, Apple has integrated Google's geographical mapping service into its upcoming iPhone hand set. Rumors have also suggested that Google's technology will play an increasing role in the Mac maker's upcoming Leopard operating system release.
Schmidt, in addition to his role atop Google's executive hierarchy, is also a member of Apple's board of directors.
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (AMEX/TSE: MCZ), a leading third-party video game accessory provider, announced today that it has begun shipping new full-featured controllers for its Playstation(R) 3 product line.
The Mad Catz GamePads for Playstation 3 are available in wired and wireless versions and are offered in four stylish colors. The GamePads feature innovative designs, SixSense(TM) motion-sensing technology, unique quick-fire triggers, four controller port indicator LEDs, a home button that accesses the PS3's main interface and fully analog joysticks.
"The launch of this duo of feature-rich controllers marks a meaningful step toward our goal of offering a full suite of quality accessories for each of the new console platforms," said Darren Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mad Catz. "These competitively-priced GamePads provide gamers with an attractive alternative to first-party controllers and demonstrate our continued dedication to harnessing the technology of the new consoles to create innovative product designs and new sources of revenue."
The wired GamePad carries an MSRP of $29.99 and the Wireless GamePad has an MSRP of $39.99. Both controllers will be available at major video game retailers worldwide and online. For more information visit www.madcatz.com.
About Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
Mad Catz is a worldwide leader of innovative peripherals in the interactive entertainment industry. Mad Catz designs and markets a full range of accessories for video game systems and publishes video game software, including the industry leading GameShark brand of video game enhancements. Mad Catz has distribution through most leading retailers offering interactive entertainment products. Mad Catz has its operating headquarters in San Diego, California and offices in Canada, Europe and Asia. For additional information go to www.madcatz.com.
Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements: This press release contains forward-looking statements about the Company's business prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this press release as a result of new information or future events or developments. You can identify these statements by the fact that they use words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "should," "plan," "goal," "believe," and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: the ability to maintain or renew the Company's licenses; competitive developments affecting the Company's current products; first party price reductions; the ability to successfully market both new and existing products domestically and internationally; difficulties or delays in manufacturing; or a downturn in the market or industry. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other matters can be found in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators.
Source: Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (AMEX/TSE: MCZ), a leading third-party video game accessory provider, announced today that it has begun shipping new full-featured controllers for its Playstation(R) 3 product line.
The Mad Catz GamePads for Playstation 3 are available in wired and wireless versions and are offered in four stylish colors. The GamePads feature innovative designs, SixSense(TM) motion-sensing technology, unique quick-fire triggers, four controller port indicator LEDs, a home button that accesses the PS3's main interface and fully analog joysticks.
"The launch of this duo of feature-rich controllers marks a meaningful step toward our goal of offering a full suite of quality accessories for each of the new console platforms," said Darren Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mad Catz. "These competitively-priced GamePads provide gamers with an attractive alternative to first-party controllers and demonstrate our continued dedication to harnessing the technology of the new consoles to create innovative product designs and new sources of revenue."
The wired GamePad carries an MSRP of $29.99 and the Wireless GamePad has an MSRP of $39.99. Both controllers will be available at major video game retailers worldwide and online. For more information visit www.madcatz.com.
About Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
Mad Catz is a worldwide leader of innovative peripherals in the interactive entertainment industry. Mad Catz designs and markets a full range of accessories for video game systems and publishes video game software, including the industry leading GameShark brand of video game enhancements. Mad Catz has distribution through most leading retailers offering interactive entertainment products. Mad Catz has its operating headquarters in San Diego, California and offices in Canada, Europe and Asia. For additional information go to www.madcatz.com.
Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements: This press release contains forward-looking statements about the Company's business prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this press release as a result of new information or future events or developments. You can identify these statements by the fact that they use words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "should," "plan," "goal," "believe," and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: the ability to maintain or renew the Company's licenses; competitive developments affecting the Company's current products; first party price reductions; the ability to successfully market both new and existing products domestically and internationally; difficulties or delays in manufacturing; or a downturn in the market or industry. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other matters can be found in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators.
Source: Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (AMEX/TSE: MCZ), a leading third-party video game accessory provider, announced today that it has begun shipping new full-featured controllers for its Playstation(R) 3 product line.
The Mad Catz GamePads for Playstation 3 are available in wired and wireless versions and are offered in four stylish colors. The GamePads feature innovative designs, SixSense(TM) motion-sensing technology, unique quick-fire triggers, four controller port indicator LEDs, a home button that accesses the PS3's main interface and fully analog joysticks.
"The launch of this duo of feature-rich controllers marks a meaningful step toward our goal of offering a full suite of quality accessories for each of the new console platforms," said Darren Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mad Catz. "These competitively-priced GamePads provide gamers with an attractive alternative to first-party controllers and demonstrate our continued dedication to harnessing the technology of the new consoles to create innovative product designs and new sources of revenue."
The wired GamePad carries an MSRP of $29.99 and the Wireless GamePad has an MSRP of $39.99. Both controllers will be available at major video game retailers worldwide and online. For more information visit www.madcatz.com.
About Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
Mad Catz is a worldwide leader of innovative peripherals in the interactive entertainment industry. Mad Catz designs and markets a full range of accessories for video game systems and publishes video game software, including the industry leading GameShark brand of video game enhancements. Mad Catz has distribution through most leading retailers offering interactive entertainment products. Mad Catz has its operating headquarters in San Diego, California and offices in Canada, Europe and Asia. For additional information go to www.madcatz.com.
Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements: This press release contains forward-looking statements about the Company's business prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this press release as a result of new information or future events or developments. You can identify these statements by the fact that they use words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "should," "plan," "goal," "believe," and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: the ability to maintain or renew the Company's licenses; competitive developments affecting the Company's current products; first party price reductions; the ability to successfully market both new and existing products domestically and internationally; difficulties or delays in manufacturing; or a downturn in the market or industry. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other matters can be found in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators.
Source: Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
MCZ news
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. (AMEX/TSE: MCZ), a leading third-party video game accessory provider, announced today that it has begun shipping new full-featured controllers for its Playstation(R) 3 product line.
The Mad Catz GamePads for Playstation 3 are available in wired and wireless versions and are offered in four stylish colors. The GamePads feature innovative designs, SixSense(TM) motion-sensing technology, unique quick-fire triggers, four controller port indicator LEDs, a home button that accesses the PS3's main interface and fully analog joysticks.
"The launch of this duo of feature-rich controllers marks a meaningful step toward our goal of offering a full suite of quality accessories for each of the new console platforms," said Darren Richardson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Mad Catz. "These competitively-priced GamePads provide gamers with an attractive alternative to first-party controllers and demonstrate our continued dedication to harnessing the technology of the new consoles to create innovative product designs and new sources of revenue."
The wired GamePad carries an MSRP of $29.99 and the Wireless GamePad has an MSRP of $39.99. Both controllers will be available at major video game retailers worldwide and online. For more information visit www.madcatz.com.
About Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
Mad Catz is a worldwide leader of innovative peripherals in the interactive entertainment industry. Mad Catz designs and markets a full range of accessories for video game systems and publishes video game software, including the industry leading GameShark brand of video game enhancements. Mad Catz has distribution through most leading retailers offering interactive entertainment products. Mad Catz has its operating headquarters in San Diego, California and offices in Canada, Europe and Asia. For additional information go to www.madcatz.com.
Safe Harbor for Forward Looking Statements: This press release contains forward-looking statements about the Company's business prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. The Company assumes no obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this press release as a result of new information or future events or developments. You can identify these statements by the fact that they use words such as "anticipate," "estimate," "expect," "project," "intend," "should," "plan," "goal," "believe," and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: the ability to maintain or renew the Company's licenses; competitive developments affecting the Company's current products; first party price reductions; the ability to successfully market both new and existing products domestically and internationally; difficulties or delays in manufacturing; or a downturn in the market or industry. A further list and description of these risks, uncertainties and other matters can be found in the Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian Securities Administrators.
Source: Mad Catz Interactive, Inc.
News Provided by Acquire Media Corporation
MCZ day high and looks like it will close flat which is a big positive.
MCZ CFO bought stock in Feb.
Insider buying
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1088162.htm
MCZ is doing fine here. On Fri the market sold off while MCZ was up. The bottom is in for the stock. The CFO bought $50k worth of stock at .80
What does that tell you?
I'd be buying here as the stock bottomed at .70
Good post Jerry
MCZ has bottomed
MCZ...Told you to buy at .40
It then ran up to .75
Then the company can in with great earnings and now the CFO bought $50k of stock at .80
Now the stock has pulled back to very strong support area near .70
You now have another chance to get in before it breaks thru $1 and you can bet it will.
TPX nice
I like the way you're thinking here. Just put it on my watch list. Thanks
Added or I should say, loaded up on MCZ at .71
The CFO bought $50k worth of stock at .80 just two weeks ago.
Added or I should say, loaded up on MCZ at .71
The CFO bought $50k worth of stock at .80 just two weeks ago.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Tempur-Pedic International Inc. (TPX) said Wednesday that it expects continued spot shortages of some mattress models for several weeks because of strong demand.
The Lexington, Ky., manufacturer of mattresses and pillows said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that its Virginia manufacturing facility is running at full capacity and that its new manufacturing facility in New Mexico is operational.
Tempur-Pedic said that it accelerated the production schedule at its New Mexico plant to help build inventory and eliminate backorders.
-Nicolas Brulliard; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-1351; nicolas.brulliard@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
GERN looking interesting but prefer $7
Hi West, believe it or not I like food co's like HAIN and SWY going forward. I would stay clear of the big techs unless you're day trading them. I bought back into FCEL early today. Also like LOGI.
Thanks for the info
Stocks will most likely re-test the lows but I think its worth doing some buying. I was stopped out of JADE and to tell you the truth I'm afraid of it here so I won't rebuy.
Bernanke Repeats Warnings About Deficits
Wednesday February 28, 10:09 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Ben Bernanke Says Government Leaders Must Take Early Action to Address Federal Budget Problems
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, discussing long-term fiscal challenges a day after a huge stock sell-off on Wall Street, told Congress Wednesday that government leaders must undertake "early and meaningful" action to address federal budget problems.
Bernanke made no mention of the volatile trading day in his prepared remarks before the House Budget Committee. But he did repeat warnings he voiced last month to the Senate Budget Committee about the strains coming from the government's big benefit programs of Social Security, and Medicare and Medicaid.
"Dealing with the resulting fiscal strains will pose difficult choices for the Congress, the administration and the American people," Bernanke said. "However, if early and meaningful action is not taken, the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened with future generations bearing much of the cost."
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ViroPharma Inc.'s (VPHM) fourth-quarter net income fell to $18 million, or 25 cents a share, from $72.7 million, or $1.17 a share, a year ago, due in part to a change in income tax accounting.
A Thomson Financial survey of analysts, on average, predicted earnings of 20 cents a share for the quarter. Analysts' estimates usually exclude items.
The Exton, Pa., pharmaceutical company's revenue fell 4.6% to $38.6 million from $40.5 million a year ago.
For 2007, the company expects net product sales of $195 million to $205 million.
-Veronica Dagher; 201-938-5400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
Order free Annual Report for ViroPharma Incorporated
Visit http://djnewswires.ar.wilink.com/?link=VPHM or call 1-888-301-0513
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Hi Jerry, what are your thoughts about this correction.
Short this rally then cash in later
Why stocks are likely to move lower over next 6 months
Tuesday February 27, 6:28 pm ET
By John Shinal
Commentary: Why stocks are likely to move lower over next 6 months
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As a reminder to investors, most economists are not predicting the end of the boom and bust cycles that have always been a part of the capitalist system.
The latest leg of the current bull market, which had pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index and other broad indexes pretty much straight up since August, has made it easy to forget that.
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So has the glut of liquidity that for several years has helped power markets around the globe higher and led to a wave of private-equity buyouts in the U.S. that have helped prop up share prices here.
Cheap money, combined with a record run for U.S. corporate profit growth and bubble-like euphoria about China, had lulled investors into complacency of historic proportions.
Before Tuesday, it had been 45 months since the S&P 500 had suffered a one-day decline of 2% or more. During the past 75 years, such days have occurred eight times a year, on average.
Then came the market plunge, when we were once again reminded that things that are too good to last never do.
Investors who think this was a one-day correction should consider that averages usually revert to their long-term means. I'm not sure exactly how many 2% daily drops we'll see during the next several years as that occurs, but my best guess is "lots."
Commerce is driven by human needs and emotions - people buy when they think they will get something in return for their money - from big-screen TVs to houses to stocks -- and sell when they convince themselves that holding what they have will cost them.
For that reason, markets will always be as capricious as human nature, which when it comes to investment decisions repeatedly cycles between fear and greed.
Several weeks ago, this column reminded readers of something MarketWatch first reported in July - that the American-traded shares of Chinese Internet companies were at bubble-like valuations and that their recent problems could be a sign of wider declines to come.
Tuesday, the trouble began in China, where the main stock index plunged 9%, the most in a decade. Yet many of the fundamental factors that have been helping drive U.S. stocks higher are beginning to falter.
Consider the following:
Profit growth decelerating
The string of 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth in the operating profits of S&P 500 companies already ended in the fourth quarter or will do so in the first.
The fourth-quarter number currently stands at 10.03%, with more than 90% of the companies in the index reporting results. In the opinion of S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt, once all the companies file their 10-K annual statements with federal securities regulators, "We're probably not going to make it."
Granted, 10% profit growth is not a weak number by historical standards, but the tide has clearly turned.
For all of 2007, S&P expects profit growth of 7.53%, about half of the 15% figure for 2006.
Decelerating profit growth is a sign of a business cycle that is long in the tooth, as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday.
Home equity falling, loan defaults rising
For years, U.S. homeowners have been funding their spending with the rising equity in their homes, which functioned like an ATM machine that you could sleep and eat in.
That's over.
On Tuesday, just before the U.S. market meltdown, S&P reported that U.S. home prices fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the most since 1992.
With the U.S. annual savings rate below zero, which means consumers in this country spend more than they make in income every year, it's a mystery what will power consumer spending now that the ATM machine is broken.
At the same time, mortgage lenders afraid of a rise in the number of defaults are tightening lending practices, removing a significant chunk of home buyers (and mortgage refinancers) from the market.
Several lenders who specialize in so called sub-prime loans have already seen their shares pummeled after warning of higher losses. They'll soon have plenty of company.
"We think those problems will spread to other lenders," Silverblatt says.
The U.S. home market has been on a 15-year tear. Anyone who thinks a bull run like that works itself out in just one year may want to go back and look how long it took the stock market to recover from the late 1990s tech bubble.
The answer is - seven years next month, and counting.
An era of cheap money always ends badly
As MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert pointed out Tuesday - also before the big market plunge - the issuance of U.S. junk bonds reached record levels last year.
That was great for companies that wanted easy debt to fund investment.
However, periods of cheap money are usually followed by runs of rising bankruptcies, which signal economic weakness. To read how that dynamic fits into stock market cycles, read Hulbert's column here.
I could go on to mention how the current yield curve, which compares long-term interest rates to short-term ones, is signaling a 42% chance of recession during the next year, according the economists at the Federal Reserve.
Or how many investors who sold shares in Shanghai on Tuesday expect legislators in that country to try to rein in its economic expansion, which has been cruising along at an annual growth rate of 10% lately.
For tech investors wondering whether to buy, hold or sell right now, I suggest you pull up a three-year chart of the Nasdaq and judge for yourself whether buying after a big one-day drop -- near the top of a six-month run -- is a good idea.
I'm no chart expert, but individual stock charts for Nasdaq bellwethers like Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqGS:CSCO - News) Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqGS:MSFT - News), Oracle Corp. (NasdaqGS:ORCL - News) and others tell a similar story - all are showing dramatic short-term weakness after nice runs of at least six months.
U.S. stocks may go up on Wednesday. They may even go up the day after that. But the odds are good, given the deterioration of the fundamentals listed above and three-year chart trends, that sometime in the next six months most Nasdaq stocks will be lower than they are today by at least 5%.
Next week: the Q1 profit outlook for tech companies.
TRID running north to a day high
BRCM breakout may be coming