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Great Earnings!
Still around checking in every now and then - very impressed with the annual results and the trend here.
Steady consistent growth in plasma; with both the pharma and patient affordability lines experiencing a nice growth curve as of lately and building momentum, helping diversify revenues. They made changes at the executive rank for those sectors which appear to be bearing fruits.
Should see a nice jump here towards 5$ which is closer to fair value based on current results. Happy I sold some 2.50$ puts a week back though I’ve sold some 5$ calls on a good chunk of my position a little too early and with this momentum there’s a chance it gets called away.
Hope all is well,
E.
For what it’s worth I’m still here and long/bullish on the stock.
Life has just been busier lately especially with the family, work and real estate development.
I’m not sure why the stock has been so weak, management/the company has bought back some stock and company should do well as the economy slows and more people get desperate for other sources of income. Plus with their growing cash balance/deposit balance interest income will also grow as rates climb. They said they had a few other large clients coming online last Q.
Stock appears to be a decent value here IMO.
Best of luck,
E.
Still around btw just as usual very busy both with work, side ventures and family.
For what it’s worth I’ve sold 5$ calls on my entire position, and I’ve been selling 2.50 puts consistently.
On the stock generally I’m a buyer in low 3’s but I think general market sentiment and the fact that earnings have shown reasonable growth not “amazing” growth will keep a lid on it from rising up too far up too fast. I would concur with some of the analyst that around 5-5.50$ is reasonable fair market value based on current market and earnings though let’s see how this develops over time and how they execute throughout the year.
I am impressed with management to see the share purchase plan l. I think we’ve all talked about this in historical conversations but nice to see it being actioned - this helps restore confidence in the company and will also keep the stock from falling too low as they’ll step in to purchase shares at compelling value. This will also help boost longer term earnings per share for us shareholders.
I continue to be a long term shareholder here nice to see them buck the market trend.
E
Agree - I ended up getting half my position of June calls at 0.15 late last year and the other half few weeks ago by placing limit orders and getting them at 0.10. So not too bad. At 0.05 doesn’t make sense better to roll out.
Also holding 2.50 puts for March (which I took last year).
E.
I’ve got a bunch of 5$ June calls that I rolled from my January 5$ that expired. Good return enhancement strategy.
I think manipulation.
Good value here… so much so that I’ll let my December 2.50 puts expire and take possession.
A lot of momentum, good news, expect positive results given counter cyclical nature of the plasma industry, Mexicans allowed to come back to give… etc.
I’m with you, though I’m selling puts at 2.50 pocketing the premium and happy to pick it up if it drops below.
I’ve moved away from buying options to alot more selling, the only thing that is guaranteed is time value decreases over time resulting in one guaranteed return mechanics.
Read the PR and transcript and have to say was surprised at the down draft after the release but might have been more of a « sell the news » (unwarranted IMO)
I concur with all here that earnings were great, strong growth in top line, margin expansion, Cash building - no debt and improved guidance for year end. It’s a great story, they are continuing to add centres at a good pace plus the Mexican border injunction is helping volumes. 2023 is setting up to be even stronger so I expect the stock will follow suit as people realize this is a fast growing recession proof company.
E.
Plasma News: Mexican's can now Cross the US Border.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexicans-can-cross-u-s-border-to-get-paid-for-plasma-court-rules-11663570318
The Mexican donors represent 10% of all donations in the US and during COVID were disallowed from coming to donate. There has been a recent injunction allowing them to start donating again. This should represent a healthy boost to PAYS donor volumes, especially for the centers that are near the border. I expect there should be a mention of this noteworthy news on the next quarterly CC.
Cheers,
E.
Correct - its a "golden cross" (compare to a death cross when its a downside cross over).
The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside (50 and 200 are the most common used) and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market. Basically, the short-term average trends up faster than the long-term average, until they cross.
There are three stages to a golden cross:
A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted
A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average
Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices
Good Q!
Yes still around guys, just been busy, and don't have as large of a position but still watching and holding some shares for old time sake.
I believe in the turnaround story here and as Mr. D says it is true that its a good "recession-proof" stock. Higher inflation=more people wanting to give plasma for $ and dollars given for donations is also rising meaning higher dollars loaded on PAYS systems. Also the Plasma industry has a pretty good yoy growth rate in terms of adding centers+PAYS is the largest payment processor and is winning market share.
Overall great Q - margins have remained higher than anticipated (beat on the EBITDA and EPS), revenue is pretty neutral against estimates (slightly below average estimates) but guidance is showing that the Company will end up at the upper band of its guidance thus increasing analyst estimates for the year/providing a nice boost into YE. Nice to see a significant amount of centers being added. I wish their Pharma/corporate and other revenue would pick-up at a quicker pace (plasma still 92% of revenue), nevertheless they have built themselves a nice little niche and growth is increasing at a time when many other companies are slowing.
I could see them driving towards 2.50$+/share in the intermediate term.
So did I, added at 1.27.
Quite an overreaction. I would have expected more of a neutral reaction.
Strong Q1 growth, consistent forecast, resumption to pre-covid volumes, MX border issue appearing like it will get eased. Sure Pharma is expected to be neutral this year but they continue to add plasma centers and have a nice base to grow from which I see as quite recession-proof.
E.
Good play Mr. D - 80% of my portfolio for the past 12 months has been O&G co's (mainly Canadian plays) its been a good run, I think there's still some upside to be had as many are just spitting out cash flow and dividends/share repurchases are on the rise.
Bought a little more at 1.83 - its decent value there - even if its not a double, I can see FMV closer to 2.25-2.50 right now. Was an overreaction to drop 10-15% for two days straight. Value investors coming back in buying up at end of day.
Agree, not a horrible quarter and the guidance was "okay".
It's just that the market was expecting more. Nice rebound from last year on top and bottom line, margins are looking pretty good as well.
20%+ growth is good but the issue is its purely a plasma play, they have the lion share of plasma centers in the US (I'd say they are ~40-50% of market share). They "OWN" that market, have proven the business model, its good business, steady growth, recession proof. But - what they haven't proven out is expansion into other segments. Pharma had picked up a bit but expected to be flat yoy whereby plasma represents 90% of earnings. There's only so far they can scale the business in such a nice segment, they need to either grow into other verticals or internationally.
they hired some good people for the pharma business but its not the easiest to break into (especially during covid). I bet they wished they had raised equity when the stock ran to 18$ to acquire other businesses in these verticals (you can either grow organically into these new spaces or simply acquire others with pre-existing relationships which occasionally is easier to gain access).
Holding my position.
E.
What will be most important is the forward guidance or "glimpse" of how Q1 is looking. I'm sure they won't provide anything too forward looking given they don't want to be burnt but I can see some broad/ambiguous forward-looking statements and Q1 summary (as it will be based on facts) and potential updates on new centers and programs coming to market over the next year. Agree with concept that this is a good inflation-proof stock (withstanding SG&A) as more people need money=donation volume goes up; Inflation in donation fee=higher revenue for PAYS. Hoping some of the other initiatives start paying dividends to help provide diversification/more upside potential.
I was able to load a bit more over the past month but don't have as big of a position as I would like. Let's see what tomorrow brings (after the bell).
E.
I tend to agree with you Janey - interesting space lots of potential but on any metric, valuation is quite rich. I’ll watch from the side lines for now and keep an eye out on it.
E.
Good relative strength here vs the remainder of the market.
Seems people adding in anticipation of the annual release.
Ezz - got this tip from Chilar, will have a peak. I like the space, though most companies appear overvalued based on metrics. The company appears to be in the early stages of ramp-up which might make things interesting.
What's your 10,000 ft overview on why you like this company/think it was potential and how did you originally come across it?
I'll take a deeper dive over the coming days.
E.
agree with both you and Mr. D - with inflation+rates expected to raise+no more gov't handouts many households that are on the "cusp" will be forced to find ways to make more money. Giving plasma will make a resurgence. Not to mention the actual amount being provided to donors has also seen an increase which means more dollars loaded+more fees more PAYS. We will however have to fight the fed, as I expect some multiples will contract slightly if yields rise aggressively though this can be countered for good high growth names with some defensibility.
I'm watching PAYS closely may add more, I've also dipped my toe in Jpike's BSEG for some "play money" to watch how that story unfolds (smaller than I like but the company is becoming more profitable and in the "right spaces" to get some momentum).
E.
I was on the bid only got a small chunk, have to use limit orders for stocks like this with a big spread. I'll take a very small position and watch for "entertainment" purposes (maybe will increase depending on research/how the company performs).
The price per share does not matter, its more about relative valuation metrics. At current price its trading at a 24x P/E though that's on the back of only one good quarter, so people might pay more for growth if they start to prove themselves and you might get some investors that just want in to have the NFT/Cryto side + momentum penny traders.
I'll give you its interesting, I rarely invest in something this small, plus the entertainment industry can be tough and is not my forte - though hopefully they can start ramping up the recurring revenue sources via subscription/digital to help their case (investors typically find that more attractive rather than lumpy/volatile earnings), the last that was this small that I invested in was TPNL at 0.20 6-7 years ago.
Dawg/Jpike,
Had a quick look at the financials - any idea why/how revenues were so high in 2017 (3.7M) seems it faded after that year and that 2020/2021 appeared to be deeply impacted by COVID. Any color based on your history or engagement with the company?
What I do like is that the company is now profitable by a reasonable margin - on a YTD basis their net income is 436K on 574K of revenues (they reported negative net income for all of the past 5 years so its a good sign). In addition, revenue does appear to be picking up as they only earned 113K in revenue for 2020 / 88.7K for 2021FY (March FYE) and now YTD for the past 9 months are at 574.5K. Based on the latest balance sheet liquidity appears adequate and I do like the fact that they have not diluted at all their shares with the exception of very small director grants. Will dip my toe in and keep researching just figure I touch base to see if anyone knew the whole past story.
Cheers,
E.
I'll have a look and post a quick perspective - selling a few real estate properties in this hot market (the top IMO given fed/other central banks increasing aggressively). So i'll be coming back to re-diversify in the market. Might increase my position in PAYS for the potential "come back" trade. Also, open to new "ideas" i'll do my own screens and take a look based on fundamentals.
E.
Thanks Jpike - I'll have a look at the financials and value.
I like the fact that they are growing, are positive EBITDA/Net income, some of the potential initiatives on the go, low public float, suffciient liquidity on balance sheet, etc.
I'll have a brief look at the metrics, while I get they are 0.03$ I typically look at total company value relative to earnings and revenue (ie. company mkt cap is $3.6M right now). Might dip my toe in with some play money.
E.
Hey Jpike, what’s to like about this company? Seems to be alot of PRs on good things to come and getting involved with all the recent “hot” topics re: blochain/NFTs which should get some eyes… they don’t publicly announce their financials and was hard to find… had to go to the OTC website to see the recent quarterlies… seems like a very small company… though I’ll give them they are profitable with strong margins. Just curious what attracted you to this company? Why do you think it’s a good buy/value here?
This is getting close to a level where I start drawing more aggressively from a line of credit to invest in PAYS. Valuation is starting to look pretty attractive on a normalized basis/post covid basis. Starting to remind me of the "old" days when it crashed to 0.20 and I loaded the boat.
The mean analyst target is 4$ (updated this month by many).
E.
Not a bad Quarter IMO - have a smaller position but still following closely every now and then.
The quarter largely met expectations and from reading the transcript from the conference call, appears to be some positive future developments that would push earnings higher in Q4-2021/2022. Here are my notes on pertinent items from the CC:
- Plasma continuing to improve and in getting back closer to pre-pandemic levels (especially in Q4) and yes agree regarding inflation. Higher inflation and no increased stimulus checks=people more likely to give plasma +amount given for plasma likely to increase so dollars loaded will likely increase. Plus more plasma centers added and cotninue to be added: "In the quarter we on boarded seven additional plasma centers bringing our total number of centers to 359." Currently we are expecting a total of 10 Additional centers to be on boarded by the end of the year."
- "During the third quarter, we launched three of the five new patient affordability programs we signed in the second quarter. We launched the fourth program in October, and the fifth program is on schedule and expected to launch in the fourth quarter." Ie. Patient affordability revenue likely to be higher in Q4 and 2022.
-"In the third quarter we renewed to form of prepaid programs and signed an additional pharma copay program, which is expected to also launch in the fourth quarter of pending FDA approval of the drug." Pharma revenue upside
-"Additionally, I am pleased to announce that we signed an agreement with Spentra, LLC this quarter to provide program management and processing services for their existing payroll card. Spentra is a pay access solution provider that offers a payroll card and patented money earned benefit which allows employees to access up to 50% of their net wages ahead of payday." - I don't know the significance of this of revenue share relating to this but this should have been press released! A good testament of their payment processing capabilities. Other payment processing revenue upside.
While it was small, they also increased their guidance for EBITDA at year-end and increased gross margin guidance (also likely to persist to 2022).
There appears to be good value here, you just need to get eyes back on it and i'm guessing most analyst are still in a "show me" mode where they will want to see the positive trend persist and management execute for a few quarters. (ie. note there were no analysts questions many feel away given they focused on other "hot stocks or sectors").
Best of luck.
E.
Better than I expected to be honest.
Will keep this short as I’m off to spend a small honeymoon with the wife (married a few days ago).
I didn’t expect much this Q, but overall I’d say pretty neutral with a slight positive bias as they upped their forecast. The big unknown will be this Delta variant here’s hoping it blows over and stimulus comes off at YE, causing more people to donate plasma. Also seems as though they are making strides in diversifying into other verticals (but I will want to see the actual earnings/revenue come from this first). Some hints that July onwards were stronger so I expect Q3 will improve slightly over Q2.
Cheers,
E.
Back in with a small order executed at 2.47 - appears to be "some" support close to 2.50's based on relative strength compare to strong sell-off in the general market. I have started dipping my toe given some value here though holding some dry powder once I gauge direction and Q2 results.
E.
I don't think we can go much lower either, I'm thinking the 2.50's might be the lowest it goes especially if Q2 is not so great. Yes IMO markets might be hitting highs and need a break that being said (likely by early 2022 with the forward anticipation of a rate hike - the pin that will bust the bubble), PAYS is typically countercyclical for its plasma side (if COVID appeases itself) as people are more likely to give plasma when they are in more desperate need for cash. I will do what I have done in the past wait for capitulation on the downside to a price that appears too low to ignore and build back up a position.
I've got a few orders in around 2.52 - not looking good right now but valuations are starting to look more attractive at this level and it will be a good rebound play as earnings recover. Q2 still might be weak but second-half recovery more likely IMO.
Best of luck.
E.
I think you and I Chilar remember that the bottom was in many years back when the old CFO was buying shares in the open market (this was when we were sub 1$).
I have not more cash though if I did, likely would have bought a little more in the low 3's.
2022 will be a transition year, PAYS coming out of COVID and gradually restoring plasma volumes to normal levels. While i'm not thoroughly impressed with the guidance, I understand it given the current environment.
In terms of the "Good":
- PAYS "owns" the plasma donation center market and they have added a significant amount of new names and grown centers significantly (Issue is a temporary volume drop ie. feet in the door and management has generally done a good job at growing their base). While I don't think we will get back to our peak volumes per center we should get back close to it by year-end and with the increased center base this will reap benefits).
- New Realodable Card can bring in significant more revenue - though IMO roll-out has been slowed due to COVID and the benefits will likely be seen more in the 2022+ years.
-Pharma/Other Diversification of Revenue: PAYS has strengthened their executive team on the pharma side and has gained traction with some new initiatives - I expect this to continue in the next few years and we expand out of a niche plasma payment processor.
Some things that caused a little slow down but are for the better were the accounting policy change (this means more consistent revenue going forward rather than big swings), and we ramped up our headcount/executive team - this is good for execution though adds SG&A and simply means true operating leverage will only start occurring at higher revenue levels (as seen this year/last) plus I would also assume that we added other costs related to center growth/set-up fees over the last little while (without actually seeing the earnings come in).
All-in all - better times are ahead but I don't expect us to go parabolic, it will be a slow resumption back to normal with the Company likely getting into the higher gear in Q3 or Q4.
Best of luck.
E.
This is just my own thoughts however If I were to guess, Q1 won't see a major turn in general plasma volumes - maybe a tad higher than Q4 (though it might show new organic growth in centers which would help shadow the potential drop in volume yoy) and we can hopefully bank on some of the new initiatives to diversify away from plasma (pharma, reloadable cards, etc..).
If we look at the trends I would say Q2 will be generally better for volumes given the vaccination rates and COVID cases in the US so maybe we are at a turning point as the market is typically forward-looking (hopefully mgmt can provide some insight on, for example, April volumes to guide us to that conclusion). Also, Q1 is seasonally the weakest Q for PAYS so I'm not too concerned that if it's slightly weaker, Q2-Q4 could rebound and end the year quite strong vs. 2020.
While I have divested some of my PAYS to build a house and other properties, I still have a bit because I enjoy following the story and trust management - it's been a long journey with them so I hope we turn this ship around and continue the long term trend higher. I am not following this as closely however based on the current price it looks like a reasonable buying opportunity given some of the forward prospects and new initiatives the Company is launching. I'm sure mgmt is kicking themselves for not raising money when it we hit near 18$ (would have been good war chess for acquisitions). Nevertheless, the forward-looking statement will be key (I don't expect any full year guidance until later on) but at least some update on the new programs, volume trends, and general marekt prospects would be nice. They should also provide some general comment to the executive departure in terms of being transparent that it's nothing to worry about and just general churn.
Best of luck.
E.
Yep still own a bit here for the longer term with a small amount of far out 2022 calls. I think it will be awhile before we see plasma growth get back to historical levels (maybe second half of 2021). I’m not expecting a blow out Q4 but definitely will be better than Q3 as the massive adjustment has been made and they may benefit from some new signings/new centres with the expansion of other verticals.
Glad you guys are still holding and benefitting from PROF’s rise.
Happy new year to all of you! Let’s hope 2021 ends up being better for everyone including a resumed rise in PAYS (I expect mostly in the second half of the year).
E.
FYI Updated PAYS Presentation is Up:
https://paysign.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Paysign-Inc-Investor-Presentation-November-2020.pdf
Good story on the amounts loaded and number of cards (not so much on revenue) but I would bet 2021F looks much better (IMO starting in Q2 onwards once vaccine is more in play)
E.
Still here Mr.D - happy thanksgiving guys.
And thanks EZZ, Baby has done well! I actually loaded up for some family member on our old friend PAYS at around 4$ was a great bounce. I see great things for this one into 2021, it will be a struggle towards year end but with prospects of a vaccine the tides are turning (we should get back closer to 10$ within the next year).
E.
Yep, I actually picked some up awhile back under some of the family accounts I manage. Good little run! Definitely didn't go as deep as I did in Baby as I initially did in PAYS but still a great long-term story to be had (some good tailwinds for that sector).
Been crazy busy lately so have had to re-focus my attention on work and real estate projects - i'm curious to see what PAYS has in store for us. Though IMO i'm not getting my hopes up was still a tough Quarter given Covid but I expect a strong 2021F is in store (so maybe the future guidance and expectations will overcome a mediocre quarter but TBD).
E.
Both DA Davidson and Cannacord has maintained a Buy Rating and 11$ Target price.
I see this as a buying opportunity. Short term pain due to covid related weakness but strong opportunity to grow their market share and expand into new verticals.I can see 2021 significantly surprising to the upside and really what you are buying here is future growth prospects. A little oversold today... I only opportunistically add to my position and today was one of those days picked some up at 7.50$.
E.
New Investor Presentation is Up on the Website:
July 2020 Presentation
E.