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Morning rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-morning-rant-september-20th-2024/
trading is consolidative to end a busy week that included the -50 bp Fed rate cut. Wall Street is slightly lower at the open. The Dow and S&P 500 are -0.2% lower and the NASDAQ is down fractionally after yesterday's surge that saw the NASDAQ zoom 2.5% higher, while the 1.7% and 1.26% gains in the S&P 500 and Dow pushed them to record highs at 5713 and 42,025, respectively. The VIX is down -1.5% to 16.09. Note it is triple witching today with an estimated $5 tln in options expiring that could see increased volatility into the close. FedEx has crashed -14% after reporting weaker than expected profits and cut its outlook amid signs of a more price sensitive consumer. Treasury yields are higher but close to 2024 lows, still equilibrating to the Fed's move while assessing chances for another big cut in November. The wi 2-year is up 4 bps to 3.588%, with the wi 5-year 3.2 bps cheaper at 3.517%, while the wi 7-year is 3 bps higher at 3.613% ahead of next week's 2-, 5-, and 7-year auctions. The 10-year is up 3 bps to 3.743%. The curve is little changed at 11.4 bps from 12 bps yesterday. The DXY is flat at 100.703, off of the overnight peak of 100.887 and firmer versus JPY at 143.89 after the BoJ signaled it is in no hurry to be hiking rates.
Intuit called 'Strong Sell' by Spruce Point, sees 40%-80% long-term downside
Spruce Point Capital Management issued a report entitled, "An Intuitively Taxing Valuation," that outlines why the firm believes and estimates that shares of Intuit "face up to 40% - 80% potential long-term downside and market underperformance risk." Spruce Point stated: "Long viewed as a solid, if unspectacular, grower and a solid corporate citizen, Intuit has been a beneficiary of hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and currently trades at 11x NTM revenue, making it one of the most richly valued software companies. However, we have grave concerns about underlying trends in its core franchises, questionable large M&A transactions, the credibility and transparency of the Company's accounting and financial reporting, the Company's increasingly frequent episodes of alleged consumer-unfriendly behavior, and the sustainability of its current premium valuation." The firm added: "However, in an attempt to be fair, we use reasonable peer company multiples for our "low" case and either Intuit's current 11x revenue multiple or the highest valued peer company as the "high" case. However, even using these assumptions, which we believe are generous, we see 21%-79% long-term potential downside risk. In addition, since some analysts reference free cash flow multiples for large, mature software companies, we perform an adjusted FCF based valuation analysis that implies 53%-74% potential downside in Intuit's share price."
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/september-20th-2024-watch-list/
Evercore ups Nike price target to $110, calls Hill return 'best case scenario'
Evercore ISI analyst Michael Binetti raised the firm's price target on Nike to $110 from $105 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company announced that CEO John Donahoe will retire and veteran Elliott Hill will return as CEO, which the firm calls "a best case scenario transition." The firm says it has long thought Elliott was "at the top of the list" of potential CEO successors and that while his departure from the company in 2020 as Nike deemphasized wholesale was "disappointing," Evercore "can't think of a better executive with the broad-based experience" needed and has "even more conviction that he is the best executive possible today-given the challenges in front of the business."
$AMZN Amazon price target raised to $240 at Evercore ISI --- Outperform Rated
Lower for longer
While the term "transitory" has fallen out of favor with the Fed, the word "recalibrate" is now in vogue. Chair Jerome Powell used the expression a total of 10x during his post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, and the markets are just loving it. Some time was needed to digest the new phrase, but it seems that it'll be one to add to the central bank lexicon going forward.
Translation: The Fed's past policy stance is being recalibrated to "lower for longer" to support the labor market and economic growth. As long as inflation doesn't resurface, the easing cycle should continue through 2026 and beyond. The accommodative stance is unleashing some animal spirits, with bullish forces igniting hopes of a soft landing, healthy corporate profits and resurgent growth.
Risk assets responded in kind on Thursday, and then some. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 42,000 for the first time in its history, the S&P 500 scored its 39th record close of the year, and the YTD gains for the Nasdaq Composite also returned to 20%, fueled by a rally in tech. Economic data on the labor market further boosted sentiment, with the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims falling to its lowest level since May.
SA commentary: "In my view, this is great for markets," said Victor Dergunov, Investing Group Leader of The Financial Prophet. "It states that the Fed is serious about supporting the market. In a sense, the Fed put is back, which is excellent for high-quality stocks and other risk assets advancing from here. However, we must avoid a significant reversal. Also, it's crucial that the market focuses on the positives and doesn't panic because the Fed brought the bazooka out." (37 comments)
New sneakers
Nike (NKE) turned some heads by announcing that its CEO John Donahoe will step down and be replaced by retired insider Elliott Hill. Hill spent his career at Nike in various senior leadership positions across Europe and North America, and then retired following his role as president of Consumer & Marketplace in 2020. The news sent Nike shares soaring 7.6% AH on Thursday, with investors appearing confident in Hill's leadership as the footwear giant faces profit volatility, guidance shortcomings, competition headwinds, and a lack of strategic long-term clarity. (9 comments)
Compromised comms
Disney (DIS) will stop using corporate messaging platform Slack (CRM) following a cyberattack in which more than a terabyte of the company's data was leaked online. The data from thousands of Disney's Slack channels contained discussions about ad campaigns and studio technology, which were exposed by hacker group Nullbulge. Many teams have already started to transition to "streamlined enterprise-wide collaboration tools," according to an internal memo, with most of Disney's businesses expected to stop using the service later this year. (9 comments)
We understand?
In its latest quarterly results, FedEx (FDX) missed Q1 expectations and dropped its outlook for FY25, dragging shares 11% lower AH on Thursday. The package delivery behemoth blamed reduced demand for priority services, constrained yield growth, as well as higher operating expenses. The dimmed outlook will likely end a nine-day winning streak when the stock opens for regular trading today and reflects a very competitive pricing environment and challenging industrial economy. Rival UPS (UPS) shares also fell 2.4% AH following the results. (10 comments)
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +1.5%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China flat. India +1.6%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.7%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
Futures at 7:00, Dow +0.1%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -0.5% to $70.78. Gold +0.9% to $2,638.90. Bitcoin +2.1% to $63,663.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 3.73%.
Today's Economic Calendar
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM Fed's Harker: Economic Outlook
Companies reporting earnings today »
What else is happening...
Darden (DRI) rallies on earnings, Uber-Olive Garden partnership.
OpenAI funding round in final stages, investor list soon finalized.
Bank of Japan keeps interest rate steady, as expected.
Target's CFO hire sparks intrigue at PepsiCo (PEP), Celsius.
Buffett's Berkshire (BRK.B) continues to trim stake in BofA (BAC).
Lightest fall maintenance season for U.S. refineries in three years.
Mobileye surges as Intel (INTC) has no plans to divest stake.
Ford (F) faces strike threat at tool and die plant in Michigan.
Warner Music (WMG) to lay off more employees in restructuring drive.
Societe Generale: How four election outcomes could impact markets.
TransDigm declares special cash dividend of $75.00 per share
TransDigm Group announced that its Board of Directors has authorized and declared a special cash dividend of $75.00 on each outstanding share of common stock and cash dividend equivalent payments on eligible vested options granted under its stock option plans. The record date for the special dividend is October 4, 2024, and the payment date for the dividend is October 18, 2024.
gooooooooood morning bobber
Darden price target raised to $176 from $165 at JPMorgan
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Darden to $176 from $165 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company is re-establishing its proven "Price Certainty" pre-Covid playbook at Olive Garden and benefitting from continued strength in steak, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
07:38 EDT TMO
Thermo Fisher price target raised to $670 from $650 at JPMorgan
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Thermo Fisher to $670 from $650 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the investor day. The event focused on Thermo's ability to drive share gains on the back of its proven growth strategy, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm walked away more positive on the company after the event, citing "concrete examples of its three-pillar growth strategy driving share gains across the portfolio." JPMorgan reiterates Thermo Fisher as a top pick.
(Bloomberg) - The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania will invest $1.6 billion to revive it, agreeing to sell all the output to Microsoft Corp. as the tech titan seeks carbon-free electricity for data centers ..$MSFT https://t.co/PNlZ5Fl76p
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) September 20, 2024
UPB in da HIZZLE
Nike CEO change positive for the stock, says Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler views Nike appointing Elliott Hill as the new CEO, with John Donahoe stepping down earlier than the Street was expecting, as a positive for the stock. The news removes an overhang in leadership and creates a "potentially interesting setup" with the investor day in November, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says bringing a veteran back after significant turnover at the company "should also help culture-wise." At the same time, Piper continues to question the second half of fiscal 2025 improvement baked into Nike's guidance and expects the stock to stay range-bound until there's more color on the fundamentals and the new strategy. It keeps a Neutral rating on the shares with an $80 price target.
Upgrades - Sep 20, 2024
$AGNC: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $12 (from $10)
$APTV: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $87 (from $78)
$ASMB: Jefferies Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $35 (from $2)
$BOKF: Truist Securities Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $123 (from $112)
$CNTA: Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Overweight from Equalweight - PT $26 (from $11)
$NLY: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $23 (from $19)
$VC: Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight from Equal Weight - PT $122 (from $115)
Downgrades - Sep 20, 2024
$ACRE: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $7 (from $7.50)
$CMTG: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $8
$DAN: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Equal Weight - PT $9
$DRI: Bernstein Downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform - PT $180 (from $190)
$FDX: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Underweight from Equalweight - PT $200 (from $215)
$FRO: SEB Equities Downgrades to Sell from Buy - PT $19.05
$INSW: SEB Equities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $55
$NTBL: JMP Securities Downgrades to Market Perform from Market Outperform
$PARR: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight - PT $23 (from $37)
$PB: Truist Securities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $79 (from $81)
$PBF: Piper Sandler Downgrades to Underweight from Neutral - PT $25 (from $47)
$PEP: Morgan Stanley Downgrades to Equalweight from Overweight - PT $185
$RPD: RBC Capital Downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform - PT $40 (from $50)
$STNG: SEB Equities Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $73
$VEL: Wells Fargo Downgrades to Underweight from Overweight - PT $20
Morning rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-morning-rant-september-19th-2024/
Top of the morning annoying EOD
took out longs shwuuu close call, in uvxy.
cnbc displays dow jones down 0.06 % irritating on the display....I don't know whats worse...that indication style of active markets or the letters revealing a phone number...🤪
sweet molasses
UDOW Oct 18 '24 $94 Call $5.90+2.22 (+60.33%)
TOLD YA...50 PTS..its 2 pm...do you know where your profits are?
Applied Digital Corp call volume above normal and directionally bullish
Bullish option flow detected in Applied Digital Corp with 14,012 calls trading, 1.3x expected, and implied vol increasing over 1 point to 127.25%. Sep-24 6.5 calls and Sep-24 6 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 5,800 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.11. Earnings are expected on October 15th.
GameStop CEO Cohen to pay $985,320 civil penalty to FTC
The Federal Trade Commission announced that Ryan Cohen, managing partner of RC Ventures and CEO of GameStop, will pay a $985,320 civil penalty to settle charges that his acquisition of Wells Fargo (WGC) shares violated the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. According to the complaint, Cohen acquired more than 562,000 Wells Fargo voting securities resulting in aggregated holdings of Wells Fargo securities that exceeded HSR filing thresholds. Cohen's purchase triggered an obligation to file an HSR form with federal antitrust agencies and wait before completing the acquisition, yet Cohen failed to do so, the FTC said in a statement
PayPal announces new partnership with Amazon Buy with Prime
PayPal (PYPL) announced a new partnership with Amazon (AMZN) Buy with Prime. "For participating brands integrating using the Buy with Prime API, PayPal is now available at checkout after shoppers log in to their Amazon account. And starting next year, Prime members will be able to perform a one-time link to their Amazon account to their PayPal account so that Prime free, fast shipping benefits are available automatically whenever they use PayPal while shopping with Buy with Prime on participating merchants' websites," PayPal said in a newsletter to investors.
fresh popcorn 1:50 pm
CVNA new highs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lou Reeds Hustle bustle..Do, Do, Do, Do da da do, do do da doooooo in da Hizzle...
Can you please pass the popcorn...
🔸THE 50BP VS. 25BP IS NOISE, FOCUS ON THIS INSTEAD SAYS WELLS FARGO
On Wednesday, the FDA granted 510(k) clearance to Vivos Therapeutics, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:VVOS) flagship oral medical device, which is used to treat moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and snoring in children.
Recent published studies report up to 10.1 million U.S. children (ages 6-17) are estimated to suffer from pediatric OSA.
Vivos’ DNA appliance is non-invasive, safe, comfortable, affordable, and highly effective. It is designed to reduce nighttime snoring and treat moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in children aged 6 to 17.
Bausch + Lomb rises 9.9%
Bausch + Lomb is up 9.9%, or $1.84 to $20.40.
we recently had a humpty dumpty market past 9 weeks.🤣
Going to be bumpy at 2pm and beyond
predictions👉️50 basis pts. s&p rally.
UPB in da HIZZLE
U.S. housing starts popped 9.6% to a 1.356 M pace in August
U.S. housing starts popped 9.6% to a 1.356 M pace in August, better than forecast and the best since April.Starts had slumped -6.9% to 1.237 (1.238) M in July, the weakest since May 2020, after bouncing 1.1% to 1.329 M in June. Building permits rose 4.9% to 1.475 M after dropping -3.3% to 1.406 (was 1.396) M.Single family starts surged 15.8% to 0.992 M after plunging -12.8% to 0.857 (was 0.851) M previously. Multi-family starts declined -4.2% to 0.364 M after jumping 9.8% to 0.380 (was 0.387) M.Starts under construction declined -1.9% to 1.509 M follow the -2.0% slide to 1.538 (was 1.539) M.Housing completions bounced 9.2% to 1.788 M after falling -5.1% to 1.637 (was 1.529) M.Building permits rose 4.9% to 1.475 M after dropping -3.3% to 1.406 (was 1.396) M.
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/september-18th-2024-watch-list/
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