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Management said on one conference call that they have levers
they can pull before they get delisted. (I hope a RS is not one of
them.) As for a sale to BP I hope that Denner can accomplish that
at both a price and within a time frame to make his (and our) investment
worth its while. Certainly a share buyback (without a RV) would be a
positive signal. Is Denner waiting for a better (lower) price before he
pulls that trigger or does he see the need to conserve cash as being
a greater priority? Of course we do not know. At this point if Denner
has a workable plan or strategy I would hope management gets that
across to us shareholders even if it does not include specifics.
Management has NOT been demonstrating anything that gives
me confidence in this investment. That is part of the problem.
Presuming that neither Sarissa adds to
their position nor the $50 million share
buyback begins before year end. I wonder
what the low point would be for AMRN?
End of the year tax selling along with a
miserable 3rd & 4th quarter expected, I
wonder at what price will I be adding to my
position? (My own guess would be around
$.38.) I still believe that Europe has value
to a BP. Can Denner get a deal to happen
on reasonably good terms is the question.
Hope there is a "very good" reason for
the price & vole increase today. I figure
Japanese approval would only rate as a
good reason. Management here has
proved to be unethical if not also doing
things that are illegal. Hope the BOD
members who are obligated to leave do
just that without having to be forced out.
Maybe, just maybe that will be enough to
get them to a point where a BO would be
something that management actually would
work towards. Today's stock action at least
provides me with a scintilla of hope!
North/Zip, I thought some time ago that AMRN
was planning a direct to consumer approach. Anyone
else recall that? If si, what happened to it?
Granted that AMRN does not need to raise cash so
there is no need for a buyback for that particular reason.
However, a reverse split would most certainly drop the share
price which Denner could use to allow Sarissa to acquire
more shares before the buyback begins. Doing a share
buyback after a reverse stock split would allow Denner to
get more bang for the buck...That is, he could buy back a
much greater percentage of the company with the $50 million
allocated than he could without a reverse split. However, if
he did a reverse stock split that would be a slap in the face
to all of the retail investors who have been loyal shareholders.
I doubt if being listed on the NASDAQ would impact any
possible BO. What I fear is that Denner may use the threat
of a delisting as an excuse to do a reverse split. Then, once the
stock tanks from the news Sarissa would swoop in to by aggressively
followed by the initiation of a share buyback. Once Sarissa begins
accumulating AMRN shares again would be a signal that it is safe to
buy again.
My point in this diatribe is that we must be aware
that Dener could blindside us with a reverse split.
The only way to be certain that is off the table is
the buyback beginning in earnest and or Sarissa
increasing their stake dramatically. Until that occurs
I am going to sit on my hands and not buy any more
Amarin stock and would advise others to do the same.
The only thing that would change my mind is if management
were to make it clear that a reverse split was off the table.
When asked about the prospect of delisting Berg said there
are "levers he could pull." Well, one of those levers could
very well be a reverse stock split.
Why would anyone buy unless or until
Sarissa reports a significant increase in
their holdings? Why would Sarissa buy
until it is clear that AMRN will begin their
buyback? Why would AMRN begin their
buyback before end of the year tax selling
and after the next two poor quarters are
reported? Denner could do a reverse stock
split to really shake out the remaining holders
and then let Sarissa add before starting the
buyback. Such a plan would insure that
Denner gets maximum effect from a buyback.
Seve333, Without some unexpected good news,
the share price may sink further due to end of the
year tax selling. That would be the time for Sarissa
to pick up more shares followed by the share buyback
to initiate. If Denner miscalculated by buying too high,
he could correct that by taking advantage of what may
be an amazingly low point from which to accumulate more
shares.
It seems obvious to me that Vascepa would make
an excellent adjunct drug for some (if not all) cancer
drugs or therapies. What I cannot fathom is why a
BP such as Merck (which has Keytruda) has not figured
this out? I believe Merck has conducted hundreds of
trials with Keytruda in combination with other drugs.
Why not any with Vascepa? If there is a chance that
Vascepa as an adjunct cancer drug would lead to better
outcomes for most (if not all forms of cancer) the value
would be massive! I wonder if Dr. Bhatt and Alex Denner
share my view of the huge potential that Vascepa has for
Cancer as an adjunct drug? Have they ever addressed this?
ProLiberty, My opinion is the dumbest thing many
small companies do is believing they can go it alone,
and ultimately prove they cannot. John Thero was a
moron who had grandiose dreams and eventually
learned he was out of his league. Imagine why JT
selected HLS to sell Vascepa in Canada. HLS had
no cardiovascular sales force! Well before the judge
Du decision Thero had supposedly stated to his BOD
that he wanted to sell AMRN for 3 digits and not a penny
less! True or not he had a smug attitude & instead of getting
Goldman Sachs to sell the company he set up capital raise
that destroyed the logical path to a BP BO.
So if management is expecting a rough quarterly
report for the next two quarters, that will likely result
in further share price declines and then the traditional
end of year tax selling. What better time for AMRN to
begin their share buyback program! Once China & Europe
revenues begin to gain some traction the share price will
begin to move up. That should happen sometime in 2025.
I do wonder what Dr. Bhatt may be doing behind the scenes
to get a BP interested in pursuing AMRN. Could he be working
with Denner and others to insure his baby does not get laid to waste?
With Denner having full control over the BOD this is a MUST WIN
situation for both Denner & Bhatt.
Perhaps the best "clue" as to when Denner will
strike with some news that could move the share
price much higher is when Sarissa will have acquired
a much larger stake. Only after that happens do I
believe that Denner will unleash the $50 million share
buyback (if it happens at all.) The danger now (as has
been pointed out on this board) is that AMRN will announce
a reverse stock split, and then Sarissa will increase its stake,
followed by a the share buyback. In either case the tipoff
for us would be a dramatic increase in Sarissa's position
in AMRN. in the last conference call management has already
stated that the next 2 quarters were going to be rough.
"If" a new formulation is a "one a day" version,
offers better EPA absorption, & is less expensive
to produce; no doubt it would be a major game
changer (if a BP owned it.) In the past management
has indicated that they may not disclose certain new
product developments for "competitive" reasons. So
we are blind here as to exactly what Amarin is working
on and how they would use it to build shareholder value.
Is Denner working on such a product to sell the concept
to a BP as part of a BO attempt? Or, does Denner need
to demonstrate a new product in the market first? If AMRN
does not exploit such a product, inevitably someone else will.
I don't see how. "If" Edding is able to produce a profit
at all it will need a massive amount of volume to make
it worth the money they have in it. Seemingly, if the price
they get for Vascepa allows them to make a profit then
it should be high enough for Amarin to make something
on it double digit royalty. So I see the entire endeavor
as either becoming a big win for both Amarin & Edding
or as a disaster for Edding (if they are unable to secure
a reasonable price for Vascepa in China.
Given the contract AMRN has with Edding,
I wonder how Edding will be able to make
a profit on Vascepa sales from which they
will also be paying a royalty to Amarin. If
China were to pay for Vascepa how would
they figure what they would pay for it? On
top of all that Edding would have to pay
AMRN performance bonuses if certain
sales revenues are met. I doubt if China
would agree to a deal where they cover
all of this. In other words I don't see how
Edding could charge enough for Vascepa
to leave them with a profit.
Regarding China the big question is will China allow
a high enough reimbursement amount to make both
Edding & Amarin a profit. In time, I hope Amarin will
develop a once a day EPA product with better absorption
which would reduce the amount of EPA needed, and
extend protection in the US, Europe, China, and ROW.
Can AMRN achieve this or would it take a BP to make
it work. Regardless, this is Alex Denner's show now,
for better or worse. (Can't get much worse.) Someday
I hope we see Sarissa dramatically increase their stake
and that will likely happen as a prelude to a share buyback
program. (Assuming it ever goes forward.)
ProLiberty, Alex Denner has complete control here.
He could easily reject a hostile bid. What scares me
is Sarissa not increasing their AMRN stake. I doubt
a share buyback will begin unless or until Sarissa is
fully invested.
Imagine what the earnings report would look like without
the $15 million.
Management must expect the share price to decline
lower (and stay there for a longer period) as they have
not commenced the share buyback program. Perhaps
they are waiting for the 25% loss of US revenues to hit
a future earnings report or end of the year tax loss selling
to hit before they begin to buy back shares.
Padraig1, AMRN will simply say they do not respond to
rumors. Ironically, sometimes a company will leak news
to a legitimate news source about a pending deal if they
need the share price at a higher level for a deal. If what
you heard was legitimate my guess would be that the share
price would rise to a far higher level on heavy volume, My
guess is that will not happen, but if it did it would certainly
have my attention. But that would be the case with or without
your input.
Padraig1, First, overhearing a conversation and acting
on what you heard is not illegal. Obviously, none of us
on this message board has no way to know if you are telling
us the truth or if it is made up. I hope what you said you heard
is accurate, and even if it is, it is always a risk that a proposed
deal does not come to fruition. If you decide to buy AMRN stock
at least you are buying in at a far lower price than most, if not all
investors posting on this board. Keep in mind that far more important
than any money you might make or lose should you invest in AMRN.
is the knowledge about what Vascepa does for people at risk of stroke
& heart attack. Giving someone who could benefit from Vascepa some
encouraging information about it could "buy" someone more time on this Earth.
Mrmainstreet, A rumor is just that. One never knows when
some information picked up innocently turns out to be true.
Of course, if this is at all accurate I would expect to see a
spike in both price and trading volume for Amarin stock.
Given Amarin's pathetic share price and lethargic trading
volume it is hard to imagine that such a rumor could be true.
Padraig1, Thanks for posting this information. AZN is certainly
a plausible acquirer for AMRN as they bought an Omega-3 company
long ago which failed its CVD study. So whatever plans they had were
scotched over that failure. However, nothing in Amarin's trading pattern
suggests any hint of a buyout. Also, such a buyout would have to include
Dr. Nissan eating crow as he was behind the baseless claim that mineral oil
was toxic. If all of a sudden there is a spike in price and trading volume in
AMRN stock at least we would have a rumor to pin it on!
JRoon71, Very good analysis and all very much plausible.
Before we see the share buyback begun in earnest, I hope
we see Sarissa increase their AMRN position significantly.
That, for me, would boost my confidence that Denner actually
is following a plan. If Sarissa fails to take advantage of the
low price of AMRN stock prior to any actual buyback, would
give me pause as to Denner's level of confidence. So far I
do not see any indication that Sarissa is accumulating more shares.
Given the low price of AMRN stock, that in itself, is disturbing.
I would not be surprised if we find out the share buyback plan
has been rolled back to year end.
Seve333, Not to mention that an end of the year share
buyback would take advantage of end of the year tax selling.
If management expects the share price to suffer as the 25%
loss of US revenues hits future quarterly earnings reports,
perhaps they will decide to delay the share buybacks for
a later time if they expect the share price to be lower then.
Frustrating to see the share price stay so low. I only hope
we see Sarissa pick up more shares before it becomes
apparent that the share buyback has kicked in.
Southpacific, I agree AMRN should find a way to get
a retraction of Nissan's biased JAMA article. If that is
possible, then why has it not yet been done? The annual
potential sales amount for Vazkepa I would use something
closer to future reality. My opinion is Vazkepa may end up
selling at around $80 a month or $960 a year. Obviously,
it will have to sold at a price to allow a profit. I would think
that at a minimum, peak sales would be over $2 billion a year
with the right Eurocentric BP owner in place. In theory, that
would potentially make AMRN's value to a BP in Europe
around $9 billion or $20 a share. (That is without any new
patents for new formulations and new indications.)
Rose, I believe Pfizer was the one who initially contacted HLS.
HLS, I believe, was the one that terminated the agreement as
it may not have been worthwhile to split the pie with both AMRN
& Pfizer both. JT was the one who initially did the deal with HLS
despite the fact that HLS had no cardiovascular sales team. My
opinion back then was it would have made more sense to make
a deal with a BP.
TalShu, One hopes these patents are part of a grand
strategy to bring AMRN back to where it should have
been. Do you know if this is entirely Amarin's IP? Or,
would this include Mochida? The way I see this is it
could open the door for all kinds of new indications
for AMRN or an acquirer to pursue. Perhaps these
patents would make it possible for Amarin to have a
new drug that could be used as an adjunct drug to
be used with other drugs to treat cancer and a host
of other diseases. Perhaps management is keeping
this strategy (if it is being pursued) very close to the
vest to avoid any competitors as best as they can.
Thanks for posting on this critical subject!
Chromosome, Edding has a substantial investment
in Vascepa and they certainly want to make it pay off
for them. None of us know for certain what their game
plan is. Hopefully they have a way to get sales with the
CVD indication well prior to any government reimbursement
program kicking in. Certainly China has an aging population
and the need for Vascepa should be quite high "if" those who
cold afford it privately were aware of it. We do not know the
capabilities of Edding. The most positive thing is with expectations
for Vascepa in China virtually nonexistent, any upward sales surprise
should get AMRN moving higher.
Nukem, All very good questions. Well, AMRN had done a
reverse stock split a very long time ago when its ALS trial
failed to have stat-sig results. Although I hope Denner does
not go the reverse split route it does happen in biotech quite
often ( for example HEPA.) Denner could easily justify it with
the share price under a dollar. Could he then do a share buyback
after the reverse split? I don't know, especially if Sarissa would buy
a ton of stock before the share buyback were to begin. That would
be a type of take-under if it were done. Would it be legal? My
guess would be yes as Denner would argue he was acting in
the best interest of its (long-term) shareholders. A reverse stock
split normally results in a huge selloff. In my hypothetical such a
move could be used by management to create an artificial buying
opportunity.
"If" Alex Denner/Sarissa really wanted to maximize their profit from the
situation they are in, they could delay any buyback, then announce a
reverse split. After the stock tanks on such news they would increase
their ownership and once they have a full position they would reestablish
a share buyback program. (Hopefully this will not happen, but for "them"
it could work out vey well if it did.)
Kiwi, Edding is not going to sell Vascepa at a loss. AMRN will
not sell them product or raw materials for Edding to make the
product at a loss. So this is not something to worry about.
What I would like to know is if AMRN is developing a form of
Vascepa which increases the absorption of the EPA allowing
the use of less EPA for the same effect as taking 4 grams of
Vascepa per day. (Of course, being able to produce it at a
reduced cost as well as having IP protection to regain US
market if feasible.) Of course, AMRN will not make public
such a plan even if they actively are working on it. If AMRN
has such a plan, it may be BP who will run with it.
Strange that with so much proof that pure EPA is beneficial
for patients with CVD yet Vascepa will remain unknown in the
US. However, I hope Europe will turn out different. With exclusivity
running to 2039 one would think there has to be a BP out there who
could turn Vazkepa into a blockbuster product. With Dr. Bhatt on the
BOD of BMY you have to wonder if he ever puts forward a BO idea
so that at least Vazkepa could have a shot with BP backing in Europe.
What is the point of all these positive studies if nobody is willing and
able to sell the drug?
Anyone here know definitively if the share
buybacks have begun yet?
Rose, Yes, Edding has sales of Vascepa in China but they
are very small so far.
The CVD indication approval is expected sometime this year.
The problem may be with which partners will be able to grab
(and keep) the greatest market share. Also, who will be able
to get reimbursements (not sure how that works.) I still hope
that AMRN would be acquired by a BP that has gravitas not
only in Europe, but in China as well. In other words I would
hope that an acquirer of AMRN would be able to really help
Edding in gaining market share in China. When you see who
Mochida has as their partner(s) for China...that may be a big
problem for Edding. (Again, we are speculating on very limited
information here.) If Mochida is in a war with Edding I wonder
if Mochida would go forward with Amarin as a partner for drug
development.
GJK, That is an interesting proposition. Perhaps the
animosity between the two companies is such that they
would never negotiate in a friendly manner. Also, if Hikma
were to acquire AMRN maybe Hikma might be sued on
anti-trust grounds. My view remains that AMRN should
be bought by a Eurocentric BP that could turn Vaskepa
into a billion dollar plus product in Europe. NVO, AZN,
and Bayer would each be excellent candidates to acquire
AMRN. Of course, it is all up to Alex Denner to get this
done. Alex controls the BOD so win or lose its all on him.
Vascepa is too good a drug to just let it go to waste...
But only a BP BO will change the trajectory.
After hours action is rebalancing, that's all.