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With earnings now out of the way and the share buyback expected to begin this quarter,
today's upside move could be insiders (Sarissa) beginning to buy ahead of the buyback.
Of course, short sellers may be covering as well. I never expected the share price to be
at this low of a level. With the pending share buyback, that would be the best time for the
stock price to be at a low point. Of course, for us that means the share price will likely be
higher than we would want (for the buyback.) As to the badly needed BO, I have no idea
when that would happen except that the sooner a BP acquires Amarin the sooner they can
get to work increasing sales.
I am especially disappointed by the lack of significant sales in China.
Why would Eddingpharm spend so much time and money for a drug
that they seemingly cannot get significant sales from?
Again my view that only a Eurocentric BP is capable of driving solid
sales growth. The only "magic" I see Denner performing is if he can
sell the company for a reasonable price. Hopefully, he has a plan for
that.
On the bright side it looks as if the $50 million share buyback will be
at a very low price level. (No danger of them overpaying.)
One more point regarding Novo Nordisk as a potential acquirer for Amarin.
NVO's stock has really done very well of late and now has a market cap of
around $572 billion! To put that in perspective a 1% move in NVO stock means
a change of nearly $6 billion. Should Alex Denner decide to place AMRN on the
auction block, I would hope that NVO would be among the bidders. NVO could
certainly afford AMRN.
TalShu, Outstanding reply to my post. What I found most interesting
is how entrenched Novo Nordisk is in China. Of course, Europe is the
most important market for a potential acquirer. China is an enigma.
However, if an acquirer of AMRN (mainly for what they could do
with Vazkepa in Europe) also had a way to optimize (or should I
say to help Eddingpharm optimize) the uptake of Vascepa in China,
that could be a real bonus. Of course, once China approves Vascepa
for CVD that would be major step forward. If Eddingpharm were to
work with a BP owner of AMRN that could provide greater distribution
& other support (maybe with IP) that could be a win-win. Thanks
again for well thought out and carefully documented comments!
Indeed! Novo Nordisk is a BP that in the past was focused on Diabetes.
I used to believe they would be interested in AMRN from that angle. No
doubt every Eurocentric BP should be interested in Amarin if they were
aware of what it had and how they could optimize uptake of Vazkepa
in Europe. Of course, Alex Denner has complete control over AMRN
and I believe his game plan is to ultimately sell the company to BP.
When that may happen and at what price we do not know. The only
good thing about the stupid low share price is that more shares could
be bought back for the $50 million should the low price persist.
I wonder if Roche, Merck, or Bayer would have any issues in getting Germany
to reimburse for Vazkepa? Seems the most important thing that AMRN could
use is a Eurocentric BP acquirer. Of course, Denner is well aware of that so
us long suffering shareholders will simply have to wait until Denner gets what
he wants for the company. Maybe if we can get share price down to a new
52 week low around the start of the share buybacks that would help. I would
be surprised if Sarissa does not pick up more shares before the share buyback
begins.
TalShu, You raise many excellent questions, as always. I wonder
if Mochida's EPA product will compete with Vascepa in China or if
Mochida will pursue their drug (eventually) for CVD in China? Unless
AMRN has some plan to salvage its relationship with Mochida they
could become a problem for AMRN. Given the exclusivity that AMRN
has in Europe until 2039 it may end up that the greatest value AMRN
has as a BO candidate, is the value that Vazkepa has in Europe. My
view remains that only a Eurocentric BP is capable of optimizing sales
of Vazkepa in Europe. In other words, unless AMRN has protected
one-a-day version(s) of Vascepa, a BO deal (sooner rather than later)
makes the most sense. I used to think that AMRN would have some
sort of one a day version of Vascepa, unless they do, they need a BO.
EU News should make Amarin more enticing for a Eurocentric BP acquirer.
Imagine what a Roche, Merck, or Bayer could do with Vazkepa in Europe!
Marjac, As tis plays out do you think the "fraud on the court" argument could be put into
play at some point by Amarin?
BP has to be the driving force for the drug to be accepted.
The only way that is likely to happen is if Alex Denner can
convince BP that AMRN's Vascepa (or a new version there of)
has many other indications beyond CVD. Given that Vascepa
makes most any medical outcome better, I would want to see
it used by Merck as an adjunct drug to their Keytruda. Why
nobody with stature (such as Dr. Bhatt) has not found a way
to do this is sickening. Vascepa remains the poster child for
the best example of a great drug laid to waste. Hopefully,
Alex Denner will change that.
Zip, Mochida has a market cap of around $770 million. So it would
not cost a BP very much to own both AMRN and Mochida. I do
wonder if Mochida has their own version for use in China.
Finally showed some money from China, likely stocking fees.
Wonder what the $5.8 million in R&D spending for the quarter
is all about? (Maybe AMRN is not disclosing the purpose for
competitive reasons? They did indicate that in the past.)
China has a greying population which is genetically prone to high triglyceride
levels, Type 2 Diabetes, and lung issues from smoking and pollution. This
population would absolutely benefit from widespread use of Vascepa. The
key question is how competent will Edding be in getting out the message. On
the positive side I believe doctors in China are strongly data oriented and will
prescribe it so long they are aware of its existence. I have no idea if Edding
will perform. They were selected as an AMRN partner because of an AMRN
BOD relationship with Edding and had nothing to do with AMRN selecting the
very best partner for Amarin in China. Our old BOD members were not top-
tier.
JRoon71, I wonder if the old agreements will be modified in some ways.
I really believe that Amarin negotiated a good deal for Amarin but there has
to be some reasonable profit in there for Eddingpharm. My guess is that
Vascepa may be priced at about the same as generic Vascepa is here. If
that is the case then Eddingpharm will have to concentrate on quantity. I
wonder if at some point AMRN will have a version of Vascepa that will offer
a higher absorption rate into the bloodstream thus using less EPA and
consequently reduce the cost, if that could eventually be used in China.
My hope has always been that a BP acquirer would have a means of
helping Eddingpharm make Vascepa a success in China.
DMC8, Agree 100%! This stock is still cheap. What we need to see happen
is institutional ownership move way up. Hoping that Sarissa will continue to increase
their position to much higher levels than they have right now. Maybe China will give us
a positive surprise. (I wish we had someone with some insight into Eddingpharm report
on what their game-plan for Vascepa will look like.) AMRN really needs to get over $5 to
be taken seriously.
Jasbg, In 5 months AMRN may be able to begin the $50 million buyback.
So the lower the price AMRN stock is at that time, the greater the number
of shares that could be bought back. The lower the number of fully diluted
shares the higher the per share BO price may be for an acquisition. Of course,
that presumes that nothing happens in the interim. I hope that Sarissa (and
other institutions) will pick up many more shares before the buyback kicks in.
So should the price of AMRN remain depressed (at least while the share
buybacks are occurring) may have a silver lining.
Golf stud, I believe we will be very well rewarded.
If I am right, it will be with a BP BO that I think Denner
will orchestrate. The nice part about a BO would mean
that this insane train ride we are on will come to an end.
Price wise I think something in the teens is doable. Low
20's? Maybe but much lower odds. Anyway, it will be
what it will be...But someday I hope we look backs and
kick ourselves for not understanding just how undervalued
the share price is today!
Zip, We really don't know because we do not have the details.
For example, what is the future cost of the raw material to make
Vascepa? Will the cost go down for increasingly larger buys
from Amarin? (Not right now as Amarin seemed to have to
much inventory.) I used to think that if a BP owned AMRN,
and were confident in their ability to sell, that the BP could
get better pricing and/or tie up the market for the raw material.
That may or may not be case in the future. Anyway, I do believe
that China "could be" a huge market for Vascepa.
Oneragman, What is interesting is that Edding must charge
enough to make themselves a profit...After buying the product
or raw material from Amarin and paying Amarin a mid-teens
royalty. So Edding will have to be careful about how they price
Vascepa. (I do understand that with the huge inventory of
supply, selling a bunch to Edding, even at breakeven would
turn that inventory into cash. I also wonder what Edding
believes the sales trajectory will be.
Over the next several months I hope Sarissa increases its stake significantly.
Would also be great to more institutional ownership. There should be stocking
fees related to China at some point. Hopefully Eddingpharm gets the CVD indication
and then takes full advantage of that to lock in the Cardiovascular market there.
Am curious to know how Vascepa will be priced in China as Edding will be paying
AMRN a royalty as well as prchasing the drug or raw materials from AMRN. CVD
is certainly a huge problem in China as it has an aging population. I hope AMRN
provides some color around this at some point.
Tatsumaki, The point I tried to make is how important getting key opinion
leaders to support Vascepa. Perhaps Denner would consider going to
Dr. Gottlieb (if PFE were at all interested) and suggest that if Pfizer were
to own AMRN there is a great deal that both PFE and Gottlieb could do
to change the perspective around "fish oil," up to, and including getting
the FDA to call fish oil supplements a waste of money and potentially
dangerous. The same goes for Dr. Nissen and AZN. (although Nissen
may be beyond redemption.) If AMRN attempts to change the narrative
around fish oil they will fail. However, a BP with political clout might be
listened to. The catch-22 for Denner is how to sell AMRN to BP by
Denner suggesting all the steps BP can take to make Vascepa a blockbuster
which then makes him admit AMRN cannot succeed in GIA mode.
Hayward, I try not to comment on individual posters.
My hope is that Pharmacydude will eventually get back
to "normal" postings. Dude is connected as to what is
going on with Vascepa in Canada and I would appreciate
his observations going forward.
Zip, Why is it that so-called opinion leaders on the subject of CVD never voice opinions
on this? Imagine if someone of the stature of Steven Nissen or a Scott Gottlieb were to
come out and say that Omega-3 supplements and generics were a waste of money &
potentially dangerous to the users? This should be an issue yet because of the big monies
involved it is not!
Sadly, I do not see Amarin as a leader in taking any kind of action about this. Now, if a BP
such as Pfizer owned Amarin I could see them making it a very big issue. Hopefully, Alex
Denner will make this one of his focal points when discussing a potential BO by BP...That
BP could move to get the FDA to remove (or at least warn the public) about these inferior
Omega-3 products. Dr. Scott Gottlieb would be a guy who could make a lot of noise here.
DAR53, My guess is that Holt must build Amarin into a position
that will make it attractive to a BP for a BO. Alex Denner provides
the blueprint, then Holt & his team do their best to execute on the
plan. Once the structure is in place Denner will be the one to sell
BP on what they could do with it. The question of when this will be
ready for Denner to begin the sales process is the hard one. Begin
too early and you may not get the full value...if you are too late you
may lose value. Given where the share price is we may have a long
road ahead of us.
AMRN could begin to do these things but it would be much more
effective once a BP takes over. Could an acquirer come out with more
indications for Vascepa and/or use different formulations (especially
those that offer better absorption into the bloodstream and or certain
organs) that could potentially get more bang out of the EPA used.
If 2 grams of EPA in a special formulation would get the same blood-
level as 4 grams of regular Vascepa. In any case, this is Alex Denner's
opportunity to showcase what he is capable of doing both to provide
investors with a excellent return and to get this amazing drug to those
who would greatly benefit from its use. (First, it has to affordable, available,
and known to both doctor and patient.)
AMRN is already deciding how to price Vascepa everywhere but China.
What I think BP will do is determine how they would price Vascepa if they
owned AMRN and figure out what the return would be under their own
distribution network. If the supply available for Europe (or at least where
reimbursements are approved) is limited, BP would only sell it where it
makes economic sense to do so Should those projected peak sales for Europe
come out to $1.5 billion, the BO value could be around $6.75 billion which would
be around $16 a share. Will the US, China, & ROW have significant value under
BP ownership? Hopefully it would. Getting the CVD indication for China could be
interesting. The BP acquirer would want to create an aura around Vascepa that
it is a high quality, safe, effective, & cost effective medication. Differentiating Vascepa
from all other Omega-3 products (including prescription and supplements) is VITAL!
I hope Pharmacydude continues to post here.
Always enjoyed reading his posts and getting
his insights. For now I think AMRN has a potential
to provide a 10X gain for anyone who buys it here
and is willing to wait for Denner to perform his
"magic." Not so much a saint, but perhaps he is
a magician!
Indeed! Hope to see Sarissa significantly increase their
stake prior to the anticipated share buybacks expected
to begin in the 3rd qtr. That should be the ultimate "tell"
that Alex Denner is confident in his game plan. (I really
thing Denner will end up finding an acquirer willing to
pay something in the teens.
Kiwi, I wonder if Kaiser would use the branded generic if it became available.
Might be better to do that than to risk a lawsuit since the generics are not approved
for CVD. Any thoughts?
Back when I believed AMRN would be acquired by a BP,
I thought a BP acquirer would buy it to be the dominant leader
in the use of EPA...From today's PR it sounds as if the CEO
wants to place AMRN back on that track. Perhaps Denner's
intent may be what I envisioned long ago. Perhaps Denner
will want to sell AMRN on the basis that a BP could build on
what AMRN has already accomplished in order to make it
a leader regarding the use of EPA. Astra-Zenica may have
had a similar goal but got derailed because the combination
of EPA & DHA negated the many of the benefits conferred by
EPA by itself. At this stage AMRN is very cheap. My OPINION
remains that a BP could create peak revenues of over $2 billion
a year with Vascepa if they owned it. If Denner sees it the same
way then maybe he ultimately gets a BP to pony up an acceptable
BO price. (I still think something in the teens is doable...but the low
20's...Who knows!) Could be a 10-15X gain from here!
Think of this way...Now Sarissa has 5 more months to accumulate more
stock before the $50 million buyback begins. The more shares Sarissa
accumulates, the greater the confidence level that Denner will succeed.
Once the buyback is completed and Europe becomes productive, then
Denner should work on finding a BP acquirer for AMRN. For this to
transpire my guess is Denner needs a share price of over $5 dollars
within a year or so.
The challenge is for Alex Denner to get the message to BP.
Let BP get the message to the world. Look at how Pfizer manipulated
governments around the world to buy its Covid 19 vaccine. My belief
is that those people who had been badly affected by Covid were Vitamin
D-3 deficient. The government could have mandated people take
Vitamin D-3 supplements at a cost of pennies per day. Add in Selenium
(highly concentrated in Brazil nuts) to the mix and many lives could have
been saved. I was aware of all this early on in the pandemic and never
contracted Covid even as friends of mine did. (I did get 3 of the Covid
vaccinations.) The point is if a BP with enough political clout were to
acquire AMRN they could provide the government authorities proof that
fish oil supplements (with DHA & EPA) are a waste and get them removed!
Dusty18, If all goes well AMRN should hit $3 within a year.
Royalty payments from sales of Vascepa by EddingPharm
should kick in later tis year. Plus, Edding must buy their Vascepa
or the raw material to make it from AMRN. China is a wild-card as
we have no idea as to how Edding will fare in this. Europe is where
the greatest potential value lies for a potential BP BO as exclusivity
there could end up being out to 2039. (That would be very valuable
to a Eurocentric BP acquirer and is what Denner is relying on for a sale
of the company.) Buybacks will not kick in until the third quarter. Until
then, I am hoping that Sarissa and other institutions accumulate shares.
Whatever price Denner has in mind for a BO, the share price should hit
around half that level beforehand...So $6 for a $12 BO (as an example.)
Perhaps the most important takeaway from the proposed
share buyback initiative is that it takes the risk of a reverse
stock split off the table. This makes AMRN stock much more
investable than it was before. Of course, AMRN will have its
ups and downs, but now I am confident that buying the selloffs
will be rewarded and that Denner has a BO target in mind that
I believe will most likely be in the teens..
With the share buybacks likely to begin in Q3, it would behoove
Sarissa to ramp up their stake before then, so over the next 5 months
is when they should be accumulating more. China could be surprising,
especially once the CVD indication is granted. There may be (I hope)
some versions of Vascepa (I hope the one a day version) or the combo
pill that AMRN does not want to provide details on for competitive reasons.
Ultimately, I believe Denner will find an acquirer, my guess for now is 13-19
a share. Before a buyout can occur (at my guess levels) the stock would
have to first get to around $7. Hope he gets this sold within 2 years!
Why doesn't the FDA stop this nonsense?
Why doesn't some prominent Cardiologist
(on the level of Nissen/Bhatt)) call this out?
What can be done about this? Not to mention
all of the dietary supplements out there being
promoted as heart healthy?
Indeed, Once China approves the CVD indication for Vascepa
that will be a massive opportunity for Edding. For any potential
BP acquirer the question may be if there are strategies a BP could
employ to help Edding optimize (and hold) that market. The exclusivity
protection (as is for Europe out to 2039) does not exist in China. Edding
not only needs to make Vascepa a winner but must protect their market
once it is established. That may be a critical factor for any potential BP
acquirer of AMRN as revenues in China could be of blockbuster proportions.
Protecting against competition will be critical.
I'd say 13-19 a share. The key may be that the acquirer must be confident
that they could produce revenues of over $1 billion. So long as Europe could
do that, add in the US, China, & ROW and I believe they'd be closer $1.5 billion.
Give that a multiple of 4x and that would be worth $6 billion. Regardless, its easy
for us to speculate but for Denner he must build up the approvals & sales enough
to convince a BP that such numbers are doable & realistic. Europe is key because
exclusivity there could last to 2039. That is a long runway for a BP to use to build
sales. (I still think a Eurocentric BP such as NVS, AZN, Roche, Merck, Pfizer, or
Bayer would make the most sense.) Once a BP sees what AMRN can do in Europe
on a GIA basis, they would likely believe they could do many times better.
Denisk, Seems that many of the attendees were not very well informed
as to what Amarin is doing or what its prospects are. Mr. Holt took his time
to explain and answer some inane questions. What a difference between
having Holt as CEO vs JT. Hopefully institutional ownership will grow along
with the share price. I doubt if we go back to under 80 cents but if we do I
would use such an occasion to buy more. I think Denner has to get this
above $5.00 in order to get more institutions invested. A BO in the teens
seems realistic in my opinion. At this point I plan to be patient and hope I
do not get the buying opportunities I would like! Even if one has an average
buy-in price of $3.00 a potential 400% gain should be doable.
Agree! Denner has his own money & reputation on the line with Amarin.
Denner has complete control of the BOD. Seems a given that a sale of
the company is the endgame for him. Mr. Holt appears to be a competent
CEO. My belief remains that Europe (with BP ownership) should be able
to garner $2 billion in peak revenues in due time. Will a prospective BP
acquirer wait to see what AMRN can do by itself or at some point will
they be compelled to do a deal. Perhaps approvals for Germany will
be the key. I hope AMRN has a strategy to help Edding optimize the
uptake of Vascepa in China, especially if & when they get CVD as an
indication. Does Denner have a wild-card up his sleeve? Maybe
a new formulation with new indications, or at least a beginning for
BP to run with. A BO at some point in the teens seems reasonable.