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André Tiedje: “Price target 116”
(Translated by a free online service, no assurances of accuracy.)
March 5, 2016
If Elliott waves produce similar predictions to fundamental observations, then it might be worth combining the two...
In recent years, the stock market has increasingly degenerated into a plaything for political actors. In view of the current situation in Europe, the upcoming state elections in three federal states and in the wake of the increasingly pressing problems of our unfunded debt money system, it is to be expected that this trend will accelerate massively.
We announced these developments here years ago and have repeatedly commented on them in detail. But the individual will do little to combat the emerging misery. Therefore, it probably makes more sense to develop solutions instead of constantly pointing out the escalating problems. Ultimately, this costs a lot of nerves and achieves nothing.
For this reason, too, we have been focusing more on the topic of “sustainable investing” in the countercyclical stock market newsletter for some time. Here we introduce our readers to companies whose products make our world a little better.
These can be manufacturers of renewable energies, companies that optimize production processes from an ecological perspective, or that generally pay attention to the ethical and sustainable orientation of their business areas. There are a number of companies that we are monitoring in this context. And there are more and more...
We noticed the Canadian NioCorp Developments (NB.TO) in this context some time ago . Regular readers of our comments will remember. In my personal opinion, the small company is one of the most promising raw material investments in the world.
A few key details:
NioCorp is in the process of developing Elk Creek, the only niobium deposit in the United States. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are supporting the Canadians to fully finance the project. In the past, the company's managers had repeatedly made massive purchases of their own shares - a very important point.
But what is so interesting about niobium and what does “sustainable investing” mean in this context?
Even in the lowest concentrations, the mineral can significantly increase the strength of steel. A pleasant side effect: stainless steel becomes significantly lighter. This is particularly important in the automotive industry. Here, a mid-range car can be slimmed down by around 100 kilograms by adding niobium worth just $9.00. This results in fuel savings of around five percent.
“Incidentally,” so to speak, significant amounts of scandium were also found in Elk Creek. In aluminum production, similar effects can be achieved as in steel production with niobium: When using scandium, aluminum becomes significantly lighter. Think here, for example, of possible fuel savings through lighter aircraft....
The figures for Elk Creek presented some time ago are remarkable:
A recent study estimates the project's net present value (NPV) to be $3.07 billion. After taxes, the NPV is $2.3 billion. Annual cash flow is estimated at $438 million. The latest figures are a striking improvement on previous data. As recently as May last year, an NPV of around $1.1 billion and an annual cash flow of $178 million were assumed. Current market value of NioCorp: 134 million CAN dollars...
But that's not all: the United States currently has to import 100 percent of niobium. That could change with Elk Creek...
It goes without saying that shares of the Canadian company have been lying dormant in my portfolio for some time: Because I prefer to ride my bike, I'm happy when lighter cars emit fewer exhaust fumes into the air. Of course, the fuel cell drive, in which pure water comes out of the exhaust, is far more ecologically sensible than the classic combustion engine and whose development we are also closely following in the anticyclical stock market newsletter. In both cases, however, weight savings through lighter steel are important because less energy is required...
This is where André Tiedje, mentioned in the headline, comes into play.
Because we always come to very similar assessments despite completely different analysis methods, I asked André to take a closer look at NioCorp shares.
I can reveal that my colleague was really excited when he told me about his wave count. You can see the result in the following chart:
Our Elliott Wave expert is certain about one point, and I quote: “NioCorp will reach triple digits, for sure”. Specifically, André Tiedje assumes a price target in the range of 116 CAN dollars for our little raw material pearl. Closing price on Friday evening: 0.80 CAN dollars. If I have calculated correctly, an investment of 10,000 euros should, if successful, turn into around 1.4 million euros in a few years. This roughly corresponds to the performance of the legendary US index trader that André is responsible for.
But the striking thing is that, from a fundamental perspective, one can arrive at very similar results and price targets. This becomes particularly understandable when you look at the following statements on the subject of scandium on the NioCorp website . The facts are extraordinary.
In addition, after five years of a commodity market slump and against the background of the monetary system problems, it is time for a broad-based change of tide in the sector, according to the motto: Flight into real assets. And then everything is possible.
This leads us to our final note: Because André Tiedje and I always enjoy combining our strategies with each other, we are currently in the process of developing a concept for collaboration. Maybe together we can uncover more pearls like this little NioCorp.
You can be excited...
About the author:
Andreas Hoose is editor-in-chief of the Anticyclical Stock Exchange Letter, a service from BörseGo AG. Further information can be found at www.antizyklischer-boersenbrief.de
I like like the Belgium slide about financing and the fact the DoD is on there. Are the funding probabilities listed in possible order of occurrence? Can someone in attendance share what was said during this slide?
