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TSLA - Looks like the CT commercial bust means higher production for semi trucks cia shifting of 4680 cells towards that market. Reviews from commercial trucking testing the semi has been good. I haven't seen any of them on the interstates yet. There are 140 of them. 100 used to transport stuff between Reno and Fremont (Tesla in house use/testing) and ~50 to others, vast majority for Pepsico.
TSLA - CT is a commercial bust. Less than 4000 sold in the first 5 months. Rivian trucks are a common sight in socal where I am now and also in tesla country in norcal.
TSLA - Grid storage is where more profitable growth will come IMO. Model 3 RWD lease deal is $299/mo with 3K down. Dang it's enticing.
https://www.tesla.com/model3/design?utm_locale=en-US&utm_campaign=sales&utm_content=m3_leaseextended&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_term=24q2_m3_lease_extended_batch2#overview
TSLA - FSD in China will not be competitive without Lidar. I think all the leading brands there have Lidar in their high end offerings. I am guessing that Lidar is coming to Tesla models and that 8/8 robotaxis announcement for US means it is coming to that as well. Toyota Research Lidar on their Lexus cuv is getting smaller and more integrated with every iteration but still a big contraption. IMO it's an OK look for a taxis service.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-clears-key-china-assisted-driving-hurdle-baidu-deal
MSFT - It's not just about .gov systems. You have utility companies involved. It's easy to blame mainframes and COBOL but the fact is that MSFT is the front end and edgeware for almost all these systems and "integration" and O/S substitutions have been happening since the 80s. There may never be a solution without turning off the power and junking entire systems and turning on an entire new system with new software. In the latter case, do you still go with MSFT? It's their turn to answer the question instead of IBM.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/fbi-says-chinese-hackers-preparing-attack-us-infrastructure-2024-04-18/
I am just guessing here. Compensation and annual bonus based upon TTM sales?
Based upon the way PACB shares acted, Q4 numbers were massaged heavily to hide the drop off in sales. Don't understand why ILMN wanted PACB years ago and why FTC objected. NP.
MSFT - It's not a good thing when a company charges extra for being careless and they feel they are too big to be fired.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-government-has-a-microsoft-problem/
TSLA - The writing was on the wall, the Great Wall (see linked Seagull review in prior post) . Musk accusing Reuters as lying. I doubt that Reuters is lying.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-abandons-plans-low-cost-ev-report-says
RE the study published June 2023 about Wales data set - from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-may-help-protect-against-161500715.html
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The study took advantage of something that happened in Britain in 2013, when the country’s National Health Service rolled out shingles vaccines for everyone born on or after Sept. 1, 1933, but completely excluded those born before that date. Pascal Geldsetzer, a professor of medicine at Stanford and one of the study’s authors, says this created a real-world experiment similar to the kind you get in a lab, where people of similar age—in some cases just a few days or weeks apart—were randomly assigned into two groups.
“We are able to get credibly a causal effect because we are able to exploit this really unique way that the shingles vaccine was rolled out in Britain in the National Health Service,” he tells MarketWatch. “It allows us to compare people who differ by just a week or two in their age. I think it’s a really neat, clean way to mimic what we would do in a clinical trial.”
Incidentally, these U.K. numbers might significantly understate any impact of shingles vaccines on future dementia, although we cannot know for sure. In most cases, those who got a vaccine only got one, rather than successive boosters. The follow-ups were only within seven years. And the study looked only at those who were given the vaccine in their 70s or older.
>>>>>>>>>>>
The GSK data set is pretty close to getting a randomized trial the way NHS in the UK implemented Shingrix vaccine eligibility. The difference in long term follow-up data is pretty stark.
VW Buzz - I think ultimately this will be vehicle for me, this is it if family member can be convinced that VW DNA has changed for good. VW software also has to pass the test given past issues.
https://jalopnik.com/volkswagen-s-id-buzz-gtx-is-the-hot-electric-van-we-all-1851354750
TSLA - cybertruck. Got an email yesterday that I can configure a foundation series order since I am an early reservation holder. My expectation prior to that was that my order won't be ready to be configured until late 2025. I looked at what's on the configuration site and still not interested. Seems to me orders for the foundation series must be running low.
The implicit assumption in IIHS study is that a nanny state is required for the current state of technology for passenger cars. I agree with that assessment. If Google can scale their Waymo technology suite to passenger cars, then IIHS can consider shifting to a non-nanny state. I would probably be inclined to buy a vehicle that has the capability to shock your private parts as an option in ADAS settings. I find myself too complacent at times when using ADAS since they are getting better and better but still need attentiveness.
Everything including the acronyms. Seems like a word salad article. I have read about what Morris Chang said about the difficulties of building a chip plant here and that was informative.
BYD - Still not ready for prime time. WSJ reports a variety of quality issues the latest being mold. Hyundai when they first started in the US had terrible quality issues in their first decade before getting it right. IMO BYD going through those same growing pains but they are doing it at high volumes so mistakes are going to be costly.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/13/24099417/byds-electric-vehicles-are-moldier-than-usual
IIHS.org rating of ADAS systems. Toyota in the lead for passenger cars. Tesla FSD not doing so well.
https://www.iihs.org/ratings/partial-automation-safeguards
NKGN crashed below $1 since the last post then rocketed to 4 after alz.org abstract committee accepted their abstract for an upcoming Tau meeting. It's backing off the spike. Early small cohort data was gathered in Tijuana, Mx clinic but the committee is still interested enough to review the data/results. The data gathering has now moved to a US clinic based out of Glendale, CA. I closed out my position in the 3s a couple of days ago. There will be years of data gathering ahead.
https://alz.org/media/Documents/scientific-conferences/Tau-Agenda_Alzheimers-Association.pdf
IMO it looks like an open invitation for spaghetti codes. Probably a reflection of how they have done integration of codes via "catalogs". Software "catalogs" reminds me of IBM mainframe days with multiple volumes of telephone book size JCL binders.
BYD - Laying down the gauntlet in China. Price cut to $9700 today. Range ~100 miles. 75HP. Tesla Model 2? Forget about it, they will need a Model 1 or let somebody in China make one for them.
GM/Magna - I don't get how GM will ever get to the software centric vehicle with the following approach.
https://www.magna.com/stories/news-press-release/2024/general-motors--magna-and-wipro-team-up-to-develop-automotive-software-marketplace--'sdverse'
NVDA - Andrew Ng likes the chances of AMD (open source) and INTC somewhat in provide alternatives to NVDA proprietary OS. I guess the market heard the comments.
Nissan LEAF - the original EV finally gets a complete to the bones remodel. Originally built to compete with TM's Prius.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/nissan-ends-uk-leaf-output-ahead-replacement-model
I didn't have any reaction to the RSV shot but then I don't have GBS. The risk disclosure form I signed specifically mentioned GBS as a risk factor for adverse reaction. Same for the Covid shot. Sorry that you had to endure that.
Waymo - just got clearance from CA DMV for freeways in SF and LA geofenced areas. After my prior Waymo post, youtube started sending me video links of Waymo rides in SF. The ones going through Chinatown are interesting with narrow streets, cars stopped on sides, street vendors and lots of jaywalkers. I haven't eaten there in years and always walked that area and parked elsewhere. Too hard to drive there and probably faster just to walk instead of hunting for parking.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/2/24088454/waymo-california-highway-expansion-los-angeles-bay-area
I decided PHEV with less than real world battery range of less than 40 miles is not worth the trouble in Bay Area. Perhaps the reason I see so few of them relative to EVs.
PHEV battery range ~20mi ~10kw battery reverse engineering the displayed figures. Not worth the added cost and trouble unless you don't drive much. Overall <30 mpg which is ok for a 6 seater SUV. Charging is frequent and takes 2 hrs on level 2 charger. For a little more money, IMO Ionic 7 or EV9 probably better.
Dew, what's your experience with battery range on Rav4? Just curious and comparing notes since I'm testing one. So far very underwhelming.
CVX/HES - doubt that this wasn't evaluated inside-out and upside-down before HES set up their data room for CVX audit.
TSLA Cybertruck - a review with retired GM Silverado program manager and now gentleman rancher.
I can see them setting the pace for perhaps a couple of decades like Intel did with 8086 and the latter lasted almost 4 decades. Not chasing it though.
Waymo - first driverless robotaxi I've witnessed at SF fisherman's wharf. Quite impressive actually. Noticed while walking towards a restaurant at the wharf. Robocar was going around a tourist bus that was stopped and used the lane going in the opposite direction. I assumed it was manned as it did this quite naturally with pedestrians all around. It gingerly passed the parked bus before I realized it was driverless. It went on to park at a safer spot where a couple caught up to it (walking) and got in the back seats. Impressive for an area that is busy with cars and pedestrians. It looks like the typical Waymo modified Jaguar CUV. Both Waymo and Toyota Research are testing with drivers in Mountain View area. Toyota's version is Lexus of course.
Motor Trend article writer basically saying this is not a real issue. The biggest issue remains range and price IMO.
PLTR - AIP starting to show up in commercial growth metrics and starting to impact bottom lines. I sold $22 CC's
SoCal is only ~5% lower than NorCal. Yeah it's only 12% of the US car market and the first to adopt hybrids. EVs will get similar treatment..
The US will be a few years behind EU. California has a good chance to match EU and NorCal for sure.
Toyoda is delusional if EV penetration stops at 30%. Watch China and EU blast through that in the next couple of years.
TSLA - Looks like something written by someone who has not driven or ridden in anyone of the models. So much FUD. It's a pretty nice ride and I have driven and have been driven in some very nice cars in my life time. Less buttons and mechanicals is elegance as long as it doesn't interfere with safety IMO. EV's are going to take over even if CT fails.
EV for long distance driving - interactive estimate of number of charging stops needed and time added. Not sure if the ICE calculations included stopping for gas but it looks like it does based upon my own experiences.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2023/ev-car-map/
For driving between SF area and LA area, EV requires 2 charging stops and adds ~1:20 to the drive.
For driving between LA area and LV area, EV requires 1 charging stop and adds ~40 minutes to the drive.