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The amazing uptrend continues. The stock has moved by around 25% in last one month, and is up by more than 50% after the earnings. The positive surprise added to the already existing momentum. Several analysts had increased the price target for the stock after the earnings, but now it is trading much above most of those figures. There are analysts recommending caution, like an article on insidermonkey, but it seems that it is surely in momentum. On the other hand, in an SA article the author states that a large portion of the up move in the stock has come from positive opinions about Yelp’s ability to continue to grow at a fast rate, and increased confidence in its ability to monetize its content. He contends that the stock has lot of upside potential, but it needs to use data science in order to provide relevancy and trust about its content. This can be accomplished by using a weightage system which will reduce the noise and increase the relevancy of the reviews. Interestingly, the net profit is still a few steps away, and the valuations are extremely stretched. The price to sales and price to book are around of 23, which implies that lot of future positive may have been factored in the stock price. Competition from players like Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) cannot be underestimated, and there are other players like IZEA (IZEA) (native advertising, social media sponsorship) which may provide direct and indirect competition in the near future. However, momentum has to be respected, and one can tag along with the stock, but with a clear exit strategy in mind. The next earnings will be extra-risky, and any slippages can lead to a correction in the stock. One can play based on the risk appetite.
ComeXOilTrader, possible. What's your reasoning?
expediter13, I agree. Facebook would make a great candidate. Facebook's (FB) pages are very unorganized and inaccurate. I'm honestly surprised Apple (APPL) hasn't bought Yelp (YELP). APPL integrates YELP into their maps application. Google (GOOG) integrates it's mapping software into APPL's map application as well. GOOG's newly acquired Waze application would also work great with YELP. Russell Simmons co-founder and CTO of YELP sold Phat Farm and Def Jam, so he could sell YELP. There are just too many factors to look at and the amount of tech companies that could be interested, are endless. Like I said before, we could guess all day long. I don't like YELP because it's too expensive and not profitable yet. I believe it could be profitable next quarter.
Totally agree. Why do I think yahoo will go to 70 per share?
I would LOVE to see facebook do it....
YELP will be big, very big.
ComeXOilTrader, I believe Yahoo (YHOO) would be the first to buy YELP. With YHOO's CEO Marissa Mayer acquiring a hand full of companies since she has taken the position, I'm sure it's crossed her mind more then a few times. Though who knows, could be anyone.
hopefully. To all longs..good luck. This is a solid company who makes money just because people want to Yelp. And they're more popular among young people and working professionals.
5 people want to go lunch --but they're undecided..One says...let me yelp and find out which restaurant is good. And 1 or 2 other know what Yelp means. The rest know what is Yelp for the first time.
And then, businesses put stickers at the shop/website (we're on yelp..please find our reviews)..So Yelp also does not have to advertise as much. Word of mouth. This company will become bigger I think. I don't know if they fit with other giants but when the mood is euphoric, we buy anything.
might be a buyout candidate. would fit nice within FB, AAPL, even NFLX. screw MSFT. lmfao....
Yelp has no direct competitor. Customers love to Yelp, business owners love to get free business from Yelp. The positive reviews mean a lot to business owners. Independent service providers like -locksmiths, yoga teachers etc etc, they give you discount on request if you agree to provide them with good reviews. Yelp makes money through advertisement from business owners. You can pay 300 dollars a month and have your business profile featured or you can do Yelp deals. Either way, this is win-win-win situation for everyone. Until they have a real competitor (coca-cola vs pepsi)...they'll rule. As the economy is improving, more people want to venture business. Not all businesses survive but they'll use all kinds of methods in the hope to survive - including using Yelp.
Just my observation. I almost bought Yelp when it was selling around $20 but that's a different thing.
holding 1200 shares long. going to $100
Nah. I will only short it at least 1 fime per day. Maye two or three times on mondays and fridays.
yea, ok, hope you didnt decide to short this one. I short too, but would never ever do it on this... Next Google / Amazon type of play. In 5 years, everyone will go to YELP for phone numbers of local businesses you may need. i.e. dentist, doc, carpet cleaner, mold removal, garden help, and so much more. Everything you may now use the yellow pages for, you will use YELp..
550 target for Jan 2015
I am going to be a BIG buyer on the next dip. gee's... If there is one... I wont wait much more, but dont think the 11% from the last 2 days can hold. One thing I learn, just b ecause a move up, does not mean a move down. This one could end up really big. Like 500 - 600 in 2 years. Or several splits....
That is what throws off many, waiting to invest for a downturn that never ever happens...
This was the same with Yellow Pages. Bigger Ads got more space, thus got more calls. Guess what, they paid more money for that space. I dont know much about Yelp, but this is how business works. I would love to see them follow the yellow pages brand and just list them all. (locals)
The positive surprise in the recent earnings has led to a lot of upgrades for the stock. The power of the Yelp brand and the potential of the mobile segment had its effect. JP Morgan increased the price target to $52 and Credit Suisse raised the price target to $56. Jefferies analyst has a new PT of $50 for the stock. The stock has appreciated significantly over the last few weeks, and the sentiments have improved even further. The company guidance for Q3'13 is for net revenue in the range of $58 million to $59 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $7.5 to $8.0 million. For the full fiscal, the guidance was raised to $222 million to $224 million for revenues, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $27 million to $28 million. In H1'13, the revenues were $101.2 million, up 68% compared to $60 million in H1'12. The net loss for H1'13 declined sharply to $5.7 million or 9 cents per share, compared to a net loss of $11.8 million or 26 cents per share in H1'12. Importantly, the adjusted EBITDA for H1'13 was approximately $11 million compared to $630K in H1'12. So the bottom-line is showing improvement, and the revenue growth continues to be robust. This has changed the outlook for the stock totally. The liquidity position remained good and it has zero debt. Competition from players like Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) is strong, and there are smaller players in same or other segments like IZEA (IZEA) (native advertising, social media sponsorship) which are likely to provide direct / indirect competition. So the company is surely getting there, but is not there yet. The stock has moved significantly in anticipation, and the fundamentals will need to keep catching up. The potential is huge, but after such a huge rise, it is good to remain a bit cautious.
Oppenheimer-16th-Annual-Technology%2c-Internet-and-Communications-Conference updates
details here
http://www.earningsimpact.com/Transcript/82933/YELP/Yelp!-Inc----Oppenheimer-16th-Annual-Technology%2c-Internet-and-Communications-Conference
I REALLY!!! want to invest in this company. I have a feeling with "WHAT THEY DO" that this is a 500.00 stock in 3 years... Of course they will spit several times to keep it in the 50s.... or lower...
Love these stocks reporting a loss
and trading at all time hi
unreal
I know its a growth story, but where s the profit???
MK
The earning were very good and the stock is likely to get a good boost, at least in the short term. The full year guidance was also raised. The important thing is that the losses have declined significantly. The net revenues were up 69% to $55 million, and the net loss declined from $2 million to $878K. The adjusted EBITDA was $7.8 million compared to $1.6 million (nearly 5 times). The other metrics, like cumulative reviews (up 41% to 42.5 million), average monthly unique visitors (up 38% to 108 million) and active local business accounts (up 62% to 51,400), have also shown good growth. This performance indicates that the prospects are improving, and the focus on improving the margins is yielding results. As per the management, the company launched new features on the mobile app and created a Call to Action feature, another way to close the loop between consumers and local businesses. The focus is likely to remain on “driving innovation in mobile, integrating Qype, and closing the loop with local businesses." The guidance for the next quarter is for a net revenue of $58 million to $59 million and adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 to $8.0 million. For the full fiscal, the net revenue is expected to be $222 million to $224 million and adjusted EBITDA around $27 million to $28 million. All this indicates good growth prospects, and if the net margins also show improvement, then the stock will gather even more momentum over time. The competition is surely strong and is likely to increase. There is direct and indirect competition from companies like Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO). There are issues like the patent infringement lawsuit filed by Blue Calypso (BCYP) which will remain an overhang. BCYP has got into a settlement with one of the defendants recently, and it will be good to see the progress on the trial against Yelp. However, YELP is showing good signs for the immediate future, and the future prospects are better after the earnings.
Over a 100 million visitors a months came to Yelp to search for local business, because of high quality content
Earnings call transcript
http://www.earningsimpact.com/Transcript/82515/YELP/Q2-2013-Earnings-Call
I completely agree. More profitability is going to be key.
The losses over the years have led to a large accumulated deficit of $60 million. It is important that the company turns profitable on a net basis fast. At present the liquidity position is good with zero debt and about $95 million in cash, but this may change if the profits do not come over the next few quarters. Even the Qype acquisition was funded majorly through equity and no debt was taken. In absence of profits, getting more funds may get relatively difficult in future. The revenue growth has been excellent with a manifold rise over the last few years. The online advertising market is expected to grow in importance, and a strong brand like Yelp can take advantage by good marketing strategies, new offerings, expansion into new markets etc. The site ranks 186 in the world and 45 in US for internet traffic. However, competition is also going to increase. Even the existing players like Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO) and Bing provide services which compete with Yelp. Importantly, Yelp depends on these search engines for traffic. This makes it a bit vulnerable. Further, there are smaller players in same or other segments like IZEA (IZEA) which are likely to provide direct / indirect competition. Some analysts consider Angie's List (ANGI) as a better bet than Yelp. All this may lead to lower pace of growth for Yelp, but the growth will continue. At present 79% of its revenues come from local advertising and brand advertising contributes about 15%. Further, US is the main market with almost all its revenues coming from here. International markets provide a lot of scope for growth for the company. In any case, growth has not been a problem so far, and what is required is profitability. Any sign of improvement on that front will provide a strong boost to the stock.
Fck that. Jeremy will not be so stupid as to get in trouble with the FTC. They have lawyers that manage their risks. Everyone said that Pinterest was going down for copyright legal issues and they are going strong. Go yelp!
Bought some YELP as it bounced off the 50 DMA
YELP Covered a portion of 32.35 short @ 31.76.
57% uncovered, hopefully for a lower level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YELP
YELP Covered a portion of 32.35 short @ 31.76.
57% uncovered, hopefully for a lower level.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YELP
YELP Moderate short position started tonight at 32.35
Ridiculous market cap of 2B- has yet to turn a profit.
At 12.5 x's book.
Low float squeeze- large short position caught on improved Earnings.
May have more wind- seems like one of these crazy valuation "on the come" stocks but should fall back.
MG
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YELP
YELP is a disingenuous scam. It's so-called algorithm is designed to manage traffic away from non-advertisers and over to those who are paying the advertising vig. It has nothing to do with whether or not it suspects reviews are being manipulated.
YELP filters out many of the good reviews of businesses that have refused to advertise in an attempt to drive traffic to the businesses that have paid the piper and have advertised.
YELP can do what they want with their site, but it is fraud for them to assert that their algorithm is neutral when it is not. It is also deceptive to the people who use YELP to find retailers and who are led to believe that what they are seeing on the unfiltered side of their site is in any way representative of the way customers have rated a business.
Since YELP actively manages their site and the content thereon in this discriminating fashion, they will likely end up in trouble with the FTC. Could be why insiders are dumping shares as fast as they can get rid of them.
Are you forgetting that Yelp has an algorithm to better filter reviews? Google reviews can be easily manipulated and are less accurate than Yelp. There's no control. Does the majority use Google+? Nope. Does Facebook have their own monitored review system like Yelp? Nope.
Yelp has an original idea that Google and Facebook can't touch. My brother has built his own HVAC business in two years thanks to Yelp and Craigslist. Here's THE business model for the 21st century - All real and legitimate. Just so you know, before he used Yelp he was putting up door hangers and was lucky to get 1-2 calls for putting up 100 hangers. Now he gets so much business he is considering getting some help in the summertime to handle his increased workload.
The $300 a year he pays Yelp is mere peanuts compared to the big picture.
http://www.yelp.com/biz/sierra-aire-heating-and-air-conditioning-sacramento
After first quarter, of 2013
Gl
I got in on YELP at $18.20 hoping for a 30%-40% gain. What do you guys think of it?
Yelp Inc. (YELP) provides a service where people share their experiences through reviews on a wide variety of local businesses. Internet companies have sprouted worldwide, offering services that let us know what our friends have been up to and what they like. Yelp allows us to get a taste of the local businesses beforehand, through ratings and anecdotes.
Source URL: http://seekingalpha.com/article/838911-short-yelp-unclear-monetization-plan-makes-it-an-overvalued-stock
let it break out through resistance first.....
Yelp's ad pitch gets bad reviews from some Seattle-area business owners
Owners of some small businesses here say they've been pressured to Yelp when the consumer review site's screening system displays disproportionately negative reviews.
By Johanna Somers
Seattle Times business reporter
Originally published August 2, 2012 at 8:59 PM | Page modified August 3, 2012 at 9:44 AM
Some Seattle-area businesses say the consumer-review site Yelp isn't exactly what it claims to be: "Real People. Real Reviews." Instead, they say, Yelp manipulates how reviews appear to coerce businesses to advertise.
"If you buy ad space with them ($300 to $800 per month), this will help 'control' or eliminate negative reviews by reviewers of your business." That's the proposition Marcia Evans, owner of Jewel Hospitality, a Seattle catering company, described in a 2009 complaint to the Washington Attorney General's Office. Asked recently about Yelp, Evans said, "I hate them."
Stacy Oltman, the general manager of Hill's Neighborhood Restaurant in Shoreline, said she got a call in June from a Yelp salesperson who said, "You have gotten a terrible review online. We would love to help you remove it."
The number the salesperson gave her led Oltman to a Yelp call center where she got a pitch to advertise.
Stewart Patey, owner of Mattress City in Everett, and Kim Nguyen, owner of Hoa Nails and Spa in Redmond, have similar complaints: They say legitimate positive reviews on their Yelp pages disappeared recently because they did not agree to advertise with Yelp.
The San Francisco-based company says it doesn't do business that way. Regarding the offer to remove or downplay a negative review, Darnell Holloway, Yelp's manager of local business outreach, said, "Generally speaking that is not a sales tactic from our company."
He insisted the company's approach is straightforward: "Businesses can't pay for favorable reviews, and our automated filter doesn't penalize nonadvertisers."
Yelp hosts about 30 million reviews — anyone can write what they think about a company and rate it from a low of one star to a high of five. However, the company uses an undisclosed algorithm to filter out about 20 percent of the reviews — with the goal, it says, of enforcing guidelines such as no hate speech, and eliminating fake reviews.
The workings of that filter system were part of a class-action lawsuit, filed in federal court in San Francisco, that was dismissed in October and is now on appeal. The four firms that sued claimed Yelp "unlawfully manipulated the content of their business review pages in order to induce them to pay for advertising."
Reviews that are filtered out can be seen only by clicking the light gray word "filtered" at the bottom of the Yelp page. The filtered reviews are also not calculated in businesses' overall ratings.
Holloway said the filter is needed to prevent people from gaming the system and to enforce the site's rules. Those include no threats or harassment, no negative reviews of competitors, and no reviews without firsthand experience.
Why it was dismissed
Lawrence Murray, an attorney for San Francisco-based Lawrence D Murray & Associates, which is handling the class-action lawsuit, said about eight other individual lawsuits have been filed as well. None has been filed in Washington state.
Federal Judge Edward Chen in San Francisco dismissed the suit in October after ruling the plaintiffs had failed to demonstrate that Yelp was trying to extort advertising revenue from businesses, according to court documents.
The judge also said that Yelp was not liable for what third parties posted on its website, and was not liable for how it organized its content since it's allowed to exercise "traditional editorial functions."
Holloway said, "We are confident that the appeals court will affirm the district court's decision that the claims lack merit."
However, the judge's ruling said it could be argued that businesses and the public are being harmed if Yelp is misrepresenting its posting criteria. If Yelp is manipulating ratings in favor of those who advertise and not disclosing this, Yelp would not be immune from claims of false advertising, the ruling said.
Record revenue
Yelp has about 78 million unique visitors a month and 990 employees. On Wednesday it reported record quarterly revenue of $32.7 million in the second quarter, 67 percent higher than a year ago, but it continues to lose money, with a quarterly net loss of $2 million.
The company's shares jumped nearly 17 percent the next day as analysts enthused about Yelp expanding its presence in Europe and consumers' growing use of its reviews on mobile phones.
But while Yelp is growing, Mattress City's Patey said his business is suffering. "We are being sabotaged because we are not interested in paying $350 a month," he said.
Patey said he had several months of positive reviews last summer, but a couple days after he rejected a Yelp salesperson's pitch about advertising on the site, he saw his positive reviews disappear, leaving one negative review at the top of his company's Yelp page.
He was also threatened by a Yelp employee, he said. On the last of several phone calls in which Patey asked why he needed the advertising if he already had positive reviews, the salesperson told him,"You are about to find out," and hung up on him, Patey said. After that, Mattress City didn't have a positive review on its page for five months, he said.
Today his Yelp page displays two negative reviews and one positive — even though there are 35 additional filtered reviews, 32 of which carry five stars. But readers can only access those other reviews by clicking on a nearly invisible link at the bottom of the page called "35 Filtered" and passing the distorted-text security measure.
Redmond nail-salon owner Nguyen said she didn't reject the advertising, but abruptly ended a phone call with a Yelp representative to help a customer a few weeks ago. In the next couple of days, she said, she noticed that her positive reviews were filtered out and her negative reviews stayed visible at the top of the page.
Besides these recent cases, 15 complaints have been filed against Yelp at the Washington Attorney General's Office since January 2009. Half of them raised similar issues.
Businesses elsewhere also have complaints about feeling pressured. Ernie Buletti, the owner of RedSpaghetti Tattoo & Piercing in Sonoma County, Calif., said he considers the review that spells out "F*** Y** RED SPAGHETTI TATTOO" on his Yelp site to be hate speech. But despite his emails and phone calls to Yelp, the company won't take the review down, Buletti said.
Once RedSpaghetti had the bad reviews, someone claiming to be from Yelp asked him to pay as much as $5,000 to "join" and advertise with Yelp. In exchange, he would be able to "manage" his account and have his business's negative reviews "not appear," Buletti said.
"We have been held hostage," he said.
In the past three years the Better Business Bureau in the San Francisco Bay Area and Northern Coastal California has received 493 complaints against Yelp; in a third of them the complainant was not satisfied with Yelp's response.
By comparison, CityGrid Media — which owns review sites such as Citysearch, Insider Pages and Urbanspoon — drew less than half as many complaints, 231.
Social-media solution
Yelp's Holloway said businesses that feel trapped by negative reviews can work on developing a strong reputation by providing great customer service offline and responding diplomatically to reviews online. Businesses can respond publicly or privately to Yelp reviews, he said.
Adryenn Ashley, a small-business advocate in Reno, Nev., and longtime critic of Yelp, has another suggestion for small businesses unhappy with how they are portrayed on Yelp or other outside websites: They should think about growing a social media presence of their own. If a business isn't online or its only online presence is a negative Yelp page, it is losing money, she said.
A small business can get a domain name and establish a blog, and then go to a content distribution service that can push blog posts out to about 46 social-network sites, she said.
A business can also set up a Google+ account with a photograph and add the Google+ link to its website to increase how Google recognizes the relevance of the company's website. Businesses should also claim their Google+ Local or Yahoo! Local review sites if they want to strengthen their Web presence, she said.
If a company can become more relevant on other websites or social-media sites, the Yelp page will be further down the list or at least won't be the only site that pops up on search engines, she said.
"The only way you can fight back is to get popular," Ashley said.
Johanna Somers: 206-464-3714 or jsomers@seattletimes.com
ya decent play eh called a 17-27 bounce 50%+ in a month not bad
what was that AH pop???
I'd be surprised, it's been running up. We'll see about it breaking new lows.
Looks like a short-mod term play.
Not quite worthless - maybe as a stock it is, but I check out restaurant reviews for obscure Chinese and other ethnic eateries around Los Angeles.
Also found a place to take my car after the warranty ran out, and I'm extremely satisfied.
When Yelp went public, I just didn't think it, like Facebook, could obtain the ad revenue.
Google+ the ......yelp,and facebook killer... Say good by to yelp.. yelp now on the road to being myspace totally worthless! ...
i believe google took a good shot at yelp and facebook with google+
Cuz yall thought fb would do well, cant blame you. but i like the odds here on out.
No, we're all at Facebook, thinking why did we buy Yelp at $20.
not yet, i am waiting for facebook IPO, should be interesting
yea bought @ 20.70 hoping for a 10% bounce. RSI at a low. should pick up anytime? IMO
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