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Still early but close enough for a gamble if Powell doesn't screw it up tomorrow, lol
https://www.screencast.com/t/DwSJ3EwAtN
I'm sitting 90% cash, holding final 10% puts that don't look so hot now...I am still not bullish yet, today feels like setup to me...sitting on sidelines until I get better read...I'm ok sitting cash right now & pretty much took day off today...sometimes when I can't get a good read on market, I literally walk away a day or two...amazing how it clears the head & things appear clearer when I do come back...
Puts today? 10yr 3.60
Yes sir, where gold goes, so goes silver, but in a much larger %%%%
oughtta bump silver too
Basel III:
Under the new regulation, allocated gold will be considered a Tier 1 asset and will continue to have zero risk weighting. Conversely, banks’ unallocated gold and exposures due to other financial transactions will be considered a Tier 3 asset subject to a Required Stable Funding (RSF) ratio of 85% like other risky assets such as equities. Under the new rules, banks are required to hold physical gold or other liquid assets for an amount equal to at least 85% of the value of unallocated gold on their books.
Bro, did you see this today:
ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: I HIGHLY RECOMMENDED COMPLETE BASEL III IMPLEMENTATION.
This is HUGE news for GOLD...imo
This tells me that central banks have their gold amounts in order...85% gold must be held by banks
yep, it's not as bad as market over reacting to it...so I'm using as op to add new lows ;)
AG in trouble with bad news out...bailed it for now...will buy lower
This banking fiasco really screwed things up including the summations
I'm curious to see if they raise rates or just hold off...going to be a big decision...I'm sitting 90% cash today because I see no need to commit to one side or other until the rate decision...my plan:
0.25 raise: shotgun 50% back into puts for next 3 weeks
no raise: sit back with 90% cash.
-0.25 cut: 50% back in 401k, sell all puts, load calls hand over fist.
I think they'll do +0.25 based on 10 year still not playing ball at 3.50 again as it turtles up...
This chart is from a few days ago but its still in play till it ain't, lol
https://www.screencast.com/t/Ev7jBmPWpget
I'm only holding 10% puts now...90% cash....letting market hammer out bottom, may get another dip....but I made a ton with puts, so last 10% absorbed already if it loses...Congrats to anyone who traded the last top down with me!
Taken from my Summation Rules(the last one),,,,,,,
Just an additional note,,,when/if the mkts start going up big one day, down big the next, etc. May signal a change in trend as well.
This is why I'm down to 20% puts from 80% puts...sitting 80% cash until I get signal it's time to get back in market...using cash to try hitting daily wins...
well, market playing games, knew I should have gone with 1st instinct & sit it out today...some real bullshit going on now to screw with shorts...breaking technical rules everywhere...oh well, win some lose some...keep swinging ;)
LOL, yes 306...oops
Hmmm QQQ 306 Puts maybe? Or you buy SPY ?
have fun! ;)
10 year 3.50 USD 104.42, small upticks on 10 year, dollar sideways...watching 10 year closely...it's at pivot point..imo it could tank or rise here...if it bust 3.60, I'm going full bear again, until then I wait...have fun at tavern...lmao
ok, tavern time it is LOL
We're in an area I don't like to trade ops...stuff seems good, charts looking oversold, crowds close to bearish, but everything is too mixed signals...we could drop like a rock on any bad news & shoot up with good news...the 10 year & dollar are in range & not confirming or clear on direction...When I can't get a clear read in one direction or the other I error to side of caution & wait...I prefer when market is clearly heading in one or other direction...I sit on hands for now, if we get bad news I'll pounce puts then...for now I wait...
Up to 192 now...I'm watching NASI closely now...extreme oversold with RSI 11.96, I may jump into market in 401k soon..seems they're shoring up banks (for now)...it's almost spring now & market should be better since everything more active now...I'm betting they hold off until late summer to pull the rest of this rug...I may buy in 401k end of month/early April then do the old go away in May thing for a nice scalp...NASI can go lower, but I think the crowds are too bearish ( my contrarian kicks in) lol
safe is good for now
no problem...today was tough day...I played safe & lost some ops for big scalps...
thanks for the heads up, was not able to follow along
hopefully tomorrow
bailed puts
scalped 299's 1.30s...don't want to be greedy today
added 299 0.88
in 299 puts 1.20 starter
Market trying to fill gap...I may take some puts on gap filling...stay tuned
I am trying to watch our backs, we did miss a nice puts flip earlier, but I would rather wait for gap fill than chance a squeeze gap fill earlier...
Guess we could have bought puts on that bounce, but I'm extremely cautious about gap fills...been burnt a few times, so I play cautious....I'm still in a bunch of march puts to end of month, so I am in puts...good luck!
nope, puts buy for today was yesterday near high...I usually don't trade gap downs, risk goes up for gap fills...
sweet, we doing puts today then I assume?
Yep, but like I said:
watching these numbers for months has taught me, they may be wrong for a day, but usually never wrong for 2 days....
Dollar way up but 10 year down
Nice one, you still bear side or time to switch horses...I'm still bearish watching 10y/usd reverse today...until I see those numbers dip hard, I stay on bear side...
Yeah, today a real head scratcher:
10 year 3.55 yesterday 3.68 today...dollar 103.18 yesterday 103.62 today...not a sign of strength...actually shows reversal starting today..imo
The only reason I didn't buy calls...but watching these numbers for months has taught me, they may be wrong for a day, but usually never wrong for 2 days....
I bet you tomorrow will be FUGLY...jmho
Damn, would have been a nice ride on calls
My scan of stocks over $5, profitable companies, over 100K volume which are trading at RSI 30 or below, has grown from 100 yesterday to 185 today.
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_epsqoq_o5,fa_pe_profitable,sh_avgvol_o100,sh_price_o5,ta_rsi_os30&ft=4&o=price
sold green, move onto the next
well, I handed us a slam dunk +$2.70 trade & I blew it...DOH!
Nah, there will be other opportunities
yeah, but .30-.40 sell compared to +$2 sell is gut punch...DOH!
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Assistants dabonenose matt24d K-Pax |
Welcome to Vlispxpert's Underground. This board is mainly for undervalued, oversold stock plays. The price of the stock is not of concern, so .10 to $20+ picks are welcome if they meet the criteria below. (No pinks or otcbb please) I will be placing my watch picks once a week or whenever I find one I really like...These days it's quality over quantity of picks...
Disclaimer:
Anyone who is considering investing in any of my oversold picks, needs to understand that there is usually a reason the stock is oversold in the first place. 9 times out of 10 there was some bad news that caused a major sell off...
These plays are risky in nature because of this factor alone. I am playing the odds when I buy an oversold stock. The theory behind my picks is the price shouldn't go much lower, due to the oversold indicators & the shorts are close to covering. JMHO
If the price does go lower, I average down, which I believe just causes more pressure on the stock rather than relieving pressure by selling. I usually wait for a 25-35% drop before averaging down, depending on the volume & activity of the market.
I also believe in holding the stock through the turbulant bottom when it is trying to correct itself. It may take a day or it may take months, but the theory is, it will turn around at some point...JMHO
There are 4 things that will make me sell a stock immediately:
1) Strong dilution (over 50% addition to O/S).
2) Bankruptcy.
3) Reverse split.
4) Bad news, usually of the financial nature (Big losses, bad quarter, losing major client, etc.)
I just wanted to post this as a reminder to those who do decide to buy one of my picks that there is a high risk factor & that my picks aren't really daytrades. They are buy & hold until the market comes to you. Sometimes they play out like daytrades, and sometimes it's like water drip torture for weeks on end...
I believe in my method, however contrary it is to the daytrade crowd, who wants instant gratification or it's a complete failure in their minds....
Good luck & good trading, I hope this helps in future decisions on buying any future picks...Thanks
Terminology you may hear:
Starter=1%-2% amount to keep eye on stock while it's trying to find support.
Add=2%-6% tripling of position after a 20-35% dip.
Back up Truck=20%-30%
"If you want to get rich, stick your head above the crowd, see which way it is going, and immediately head in the opposite direction" -My Favorite Quote-
"The stock market is a vehicle to move wealth from the impatient to the patient". -Another Great Quote-
My other board strictly for trading gold/silver stocks is located at:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Beaten-Down-Junior-Gold-and-Silver-Stocks-30266/
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