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Update! and some recommendations
I’ve guided the combined portfolio of myself and my partner into millionaire status thanks to going all-in oily producers since September 2020 (plus one miner)! Whoo hoo!
All this years of early morning PST market wake ups and patience paid off in a very short time frame!
A couple notes:
- check out HME.V Hemisphere Energy for a little known Alberta oily producer
- have a big position in TAL.V which is drilling Mart Resources-style wells (9000 boepd) into their Bretana Peru Amazon Basin field. Only problem is getting oil to market. Added more on last selloff at 0.30 and would love a triple on that. Will sell on big move as shipping oil on the Peruvian Amazon-to-Coast pipeline is a nightmare. Will always be undervalued but can produce up to 30,000 boepd in 2023!
- still holding IPO.TO as a smaller Alberta Producer still trading at 2022 2.5X EV/FFO at $70 WTI. Another big position.
- rationalized more capital into FEC.TO today. Not really any downside and is about to report results on KAWA-1 offshore well in Guyana in next couple weeks. FEC.TO owns more than 80% of OYL.V who is drilling the well. 35,000 boepd Colombia producer, formerly part of Paific Rubiales
I’ll post my thoughts on GASX.V and HME.V seperately.
$CLNV - Clean Vision’s Clean-Seas to Enter $125 Billion Global Hydrogen Economy; making it the Early Leader of Clean H2 Generation Tech with Its "AquaH(TM)" in India. I'm thinking this will be a catalyst for growth.
Surprised there hasn't been more postings here given the cashflow O&G companies have been enjoying.
GASX.v basically another Cannacol Energy. Still below what should be 1x cash flow for 2022. Good potential that the company's reserves are greater than Cannacol
$KNDI Electric Vechicles Energy
$ALYI Electric Vechicles Energy
$IDEX Hydrogen Power Energy
$FCEL Hydrogen Power Energy
PFIE @ @1.19: ProFire Energy. Unknown. Growing. No debt. PFIE Share BuyBack Program starts 10/15. Friday. Major....Link:
PFIE a terrific energy play that is just getting found.
Ripper at any time....Like PED, SDPI, etc
Link:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/profire-energy-authorizes-share-repurchase-130000579.html
worldwide natural gas prices are soaring to the $30/mcf range. CNQ is a big gas producer. However Canada has not built much LNG export capacity so not sure CNQ is going to benefit from world prices. US prices have risen to $6/mcf due to the worldwide shortages but even there our export capacity is almost maxed out so we can't just sell more at $30/mcf. Most export LNG deals have set pricing due to oil link or some other fixed mechanism.
Something is up with the sector in the face of an overall stock market correction: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ
yeah, not sure why the sudden upsurge. Company has not delivered on promised big announcement in early September about drilling/financing.
The opportunity is there but company has struggled to line up financing.
Ngas pricing in the rest of the world is going thru the roof! $30/mcf???? yikes. We are short on storage but the LNG export plants are maxed out or our prices would be going thru the roof too. Ngas is close to $6/mcf, which is really high.
TCFF has to sell to Turkey so they can't lure financing based on higher world prices( like Asia!) Still surprised someone in Turkey doesn't step up with $15million and get a royalty on every mcf. The situation with TCFF seems almost too good to be true. All that capital poured into platforms and previous drilling makes it seem like a minimal risk situation but TCFF can't get the $15-20 million in the door to start the ball rolling. Once they drill one or two successful wells, they should be able to finance future drilling.
I don't have much invested but enjoying the ride.
TCF is obviously risky but right now it is working: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TCF.CA
GSPE Best risk/reward I know of in a penny exploration stock.
Under $18M market cap for one of, if not THE best speculative exploration stocks
The company has several drill-ready prospects in the 100's of Millions BBL
Next GOM lease sale approaching for additional block that partners may have interest in for a larger drilling campaign than just Tau2 and Corvette.
around $15M cash value of NOLs (figured at about 20% tax rate)
No debt except insider held CDs (fixed rate higher than current SP, not toxic variable rate)
Exploration environment is great and getting even better
Price and volume today will be setting off scans tonight
PANR.LN Pantheon Resources is an advanced exploration company with what appears to be a massive oil deposit adjacent to the TAP and highway on the north slope.
Very interesting technical presentation linked below, the most impressive of which IMO is the 3D modeling of the different reservoirs.
TEXC 12 bagger on rush of POS to keep current.
Yes, pretty typical response after a 30 percent one day pop. The price is going to keep sliding until they convince investors that they have the money. Even then, they have to prove that the gas is there and they can hook up and produce. And they have to pray Turkey is relatively stable.
Definitely high risk,high reward situation.
TCF really tired to take off but is moving toward a return to the recent lows.
Trillion Energy TCFF/TCF.CN +.051 to US$.215
Trillion Energy started out 2021 at around .05 and soared to US$.52 in early March 2021 after their story was told on some investment sites. Since then, the stock has steadily fallen, hitting a near term low of .14 a few days ago.
https://mk0tupejabahidi1sv4j.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Trillion-Energy-International-Inc.-Investor-Deck-Feb-2021-1.pdf
The corporate presentation tells the story well. Trillion owns 49% of the SASB ngas field offshore Turkey in the Black Sea. Their partner is TPAO, the Turkish national energy company. The SASB field was developed 2007-2011 by investing over US$600 million and has produced 41BCF since then.
SASB has 4 offshore production platforms in shallow water. During development, 6 wells were drilled, tested but never produced. Trillion intends to redrill those wells and put them into production. One of the wells tested over 7MMCFPD! 2P Reserves are 41BCF so Trillion's share is 20BCF. In addition to these wells, there are 7 more that have 80% chance of successful production near the platforms.
Trillion was founded by Art Halleran. Halleran also cofounded premier ngas producer in Colombia Canacol Energy. He has been working without a salary, preferring to take stock options in lieu of a salary.
Trillion needs somewhere around US$10million+ to drill the first 6 proven wells. The wells can be hooked up to the existing platforms and there is already pipelines to an onshore facility ready to accept the new production.
They had the financing lined up just as COVID struck. COVID has delayed the financing and also delayed permit approvals from the Turkish government.
So this company has 41BCF in reserves and could be in production as early as 1/22 IF they can close on a financing and get the first 6 wells producing. After that, they plan to use the cashflow from the first 6 wells to finance the next 7 that are high percentage prospects. In addition there are other prospects near the 4 platforms that could keep growing production in the future.
But so far, the financing has been slow to materialize. And this has caused investors to have doubts and slowly drained the share price to the recent .14 level. The company published Q2 reports and said there would be financing news in early September. This has generated a rising stock price, including today's 30% gain.
Trillion looks very undervalued, even at .215. They could be worth a couple of dollars under ideal circumstances and possibly more. BUT they still don't have drilling money yet. AND Turkey is a risky country to invest in. BTW Turkey is paying above market rates for ngas, currently over $5/mcf. So if they can get into production, they can sell all the production at above market rates.
I think this story sounds very plausible and we should find out if it's a hit or a miss very soon.
Bobwins
Ucore $UURAF aims to start construction of rare earths facility by ‘23
https://alaskajournal.com/2021-05-12/ucore-aims-start-construction-rare-earths-facility-%E2%80%9823
I asked once before that you not tag my posts with your spam. You are an unmmitigated slimeball.
$NAK The Pebble Project is the most significant undeveloped copper and gold resource in the world.
https://instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/pebble-mine-could-reduce-dependence-on-china-for-critical-metals/
You're very welcome. I sold some stuff today to buy some IPO and GXE and then lo and behold the magic of my purchasing intentions has worked magnificently
Now I know why ITE twitched
Stop tagging my posts with your spam. You are a leach and a hack.
$IDEX Fintech Blockchain with Electric Vehicles
In spite of calls for an energy cycle top, Surge puts on a new burst: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGY.TO
IPO.TO vs. GXE.TO
This ceo.ca poster is who alerted me to IPO.TO. Here is a comparison he made between them from May 21
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gafued-Screenshot%202021-05-21%20111904.jpg
GXE.TO Huesos IPO.TO
FYI - I had a big position in GXE. I sold down half and rationalized other positions and have IPO.TO now as my largest single portfolio position.
My portfolio is pretty much all Canadian oil producers too.
Check out the last week of posts on the IPO board over at CEO.CA. I’m now posting there under the handle energyrealist as I lost my old dr_airtime login.
You’ll see my thesis in the most recent posts. IPO.TO is a small producer like GXE.TO (5000 boepd), but I bet IPO.TO is the cheapest oily (>60%) producer on the TSX/Venture. EV/boepd around $C 25,000/boepd at today’s close.
If you click on my id (energyrealist) you’ll see my latest posts on all boards. Most are on IPO.TO recently.
I kept a big slug of GXE.TO (like $C 50,000) cuz the chart looks so damn good!
CEO IPO Board
GXE.TO Based on price action alone, this looks to be able to resume the upward stair step price action shown so far this cycle. Anyone with the good sense to stay long is going to reap the reward.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GXE.TO
ITE. This bloated share structure is a problem. I sent the company an email that I sure will go straight into the garbage can but at 3.5 est '21 earnings it would be more accretive return of capital to repurchase shares vs paying out a dividend.
Who is it that is out there dumping shares? Feels like there is a LOT of cheap stock that is being dribbled out.
So long as the outlook maintains this will be a long term holding. Not stoked that my entry pre-NR is now underwater.
ITE.TO podcast
Here is a podcast with the CEO from Friday. Gives a nice status update on plans through March 2022.
https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/60952d81017903524c8e097b/
Pick 4 Contest #14 Deadline Less than 6 Hour Away.
Remember to get your picks in. Below is the link to the board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-14-39440/
ITE.TO - Guidance of $31M NI for '21 or ~4 cents USD per share. So the stock is trading around 3.5x '21 earnings estimate and a 8-9% dividend.
The stock is trading at 0.135 cents USD.
All that said there are close to 800m shares out. F'ing bloated O/S. Would be better if they repurchased shares than paid a dividend at this point.
ITE.TO Do you feel like you have a good understanding of what is. Being restructured on the BS and how it is going to be done without impacting equity (eg crunchdown)?
Congratulations to all those long GXE.
GXE.TO
Took a few months but GXE basically consolidated flat at $0.50 for two months and just exploded + 30% today on Eric Nuttal's top pick from last Friday. GXE was formerly (as of last Friday) the cheapest producer he covered on an EV/FFO or EV/CF basis.
Didn't sell any on the pop. I think we'll open a bit down tomorrow but GXE will keep moving up in 2021.
"I mad all my money sitting still" - Jesse Livermore.
I haven't been trading this oil price rally at all. Only movement I have done is to sell leaders like WCP.TO, VET.CO, CPG.TO and move it downmarket into the smaller proucers like GXE.TO, SGY.TO and ITE.TO.
SGY.TO is due for a bounce upwards this week. Still waiting on ITE.TO to move but as soon as market wakes up to ITE.TO it will be a very, very good day for me!
Eric Nuttal's current outlook: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eric-nuttall-s-top-picks-april-30-2021-1.1597554
Pick 4 Contest #14 Board is up.
Remember to get your picks in. Picks must be in before the market close on Friday 5/7. Below is the link to the board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-14-39440/
ITE - Nope. I called the Fidelity international trading desk and asked them to search. No ADR and no foreign OTC
It trades on London, German, and Canada exchanges but not in the US (surprisingly)
Does ITE have a USA symbol?
I was a large part of the volume today after reading more into this.
Seems like a good one to sock away into the retirement account and forget about for awhile
ITE.TO
Since it was essentially a new issuer in Nov 2020, i think they only have to report their fiscal Q1 (Jan-Mar 2021) by May 17. Perhaps there is an exemption and they don’t need to report 2020 audited FS for the full yeae because of TSX listing timing. We will get audited FS for the year on the AIM by June 30 I believe.
OSC TSX & Venture deadlines
ITE - nearing the end of April and nothing from the company other than notice of a (big) warrant exercise (no doubt b/c of dividend) and a notice on the dividend.
Any thoughts as to the delay, warrant exercise, dividend plan, etc?
TIA
ITE.TO I am trying to confirm that the current dividend yeild is 6.7%. Not having any luck yet.
Some Hydrogen picks
This Seeking Alpha article describes some possible investments in hydrogen
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410149-how-to-invest-in-hydrogen-part-2-top-picks
The P/Es of many of these stocks are a bit too high for me. So I play hydrogen indirectly by investing in platinum/paladium producers: these metals are used as catalysts in hydrogen production. SBSW is not a microcap, but it meets the "value" threshold, and pays a dividend. It is a top two producer of platinum and paladium. It also produces Rhodium, Indium, and is a 1,000,000 oz/year gold producer.
Anyone have any hydrogen energy / vehicle plays?
ITE.TO - locked and loaded.
Have $CAD 100k in ITE.TO mostly in TFSA accounts looking for a multi bagger this year. Good introduction presentation linked below. Here are some highlights. Reminder that Market Cap is CAD 133mm. Net Debt should come in <CAD 40mm when they report year end in a couple weeks*
*unless there is an exemption to delay past Mar 30 as dual AIM-TSX listed entity.
Gain (9000 boepd) and Toscana (1000 boepd) acquisition notes from Proactive Presentation below
- Toscana: 1000 boepd producer but gave them a management team in Canada.
- Gain & Toscana - bought assets for <$3000/bbl. Stupid Cheap.
- They do have more gas than oil in portfolios
- 500 production wells from Toscana/Gain assets currently.
- 200 drilling locations with IRRs>50% at WTI $55 at Clearwater.
Cleawater has gone from zero to 30,000 boepd in 3 years in WCSB (think Tamarack Valley TVE.TO is biggest player here)
- 18 different production facilities that came with Gain Acquisition. Operated infrastructure. 120 MMSCFSD, 20,000 boepd capacity in Gain Infrastructure. Also generate $2mm/year in 3rd party revenue. Easy path to 200-250% production growth.
- Have maybe 1 billion barrels of OOIP at Clearwater Acreage. Heavier Crude. Drill, complete and tie-in in 30 days. Wells cost ~$1.5mm come on at 300-500 bbls/day.
December Proactive Presentation
ITE.TO Update (also there is an OTC ticker apparently)
Bought most at 0.155 and at 0.19 it has grown into my second biggest O&G position. I also sold down some of my larger intermediate caps up big (CPG, MEG) to buy ITE. CPG was formerly largest position.
This guy Doc Jones on CEO.CA released a diligence report that arguably was the first public analysis of this company. His twitter account blew up overnight and volume on AIM and TSX ramped starting last Friday.
Market is still going to wait till a) they see a presentation from the company outlining what Dr. Jones has pulled up and b) a balance sheet post merger reflecting the new company which is i) old i3 energy (north sea assets) ii) Toscana (old 1000 boepd venture junior) and iii) Gain energy (8000 boepd producer owned by Canadian pension OMERS who jettisoned it during oil bloodbath and anti-carbon sentiment peak of 2020).
Doc Jones Report that Woke up ITE this week
ITE in Canada is all about the Clearwater play. Assumption is that ITE's development will look like TVE.TO's. TVE's corporate presentation is down but I'll post next week.
Also - it should be noted that two of the board members of ITE are from the IONA energy failure (TSXV listed North Sea Junior that went bankrupt, but really due to factors our of their control - minority interest, oil prices down 45% YoY, funding partner that backed out). I think this is a GOOD THING this time as they won't want to screw up the second time and IONA was a worst case scenario. Also check the pedigree of the CEO - former Managing Director - Corporate Finance of First Energy - biggest energy investment bank in Calgary - now Steiffel First Energy.
Board
Graham Heath And Neil Carson are IONA team (latter founded Ithaca Energy).
The Junior Energy board is designed to highlight undervalued junior energy stocks. Commodity prices are going to be volatile and difficult to predict even though the fundamentals point towards higher prices. To help offset the volatility in prices, we are looking for strong increases in production and low price to cashflow or p/e ratios.
Uranium stocks are more difficult to handicap because there are so few producing companies and even fewer profitable companies. To help narrow the search, we will focus on near term producers that have defined deposits and have goals to produce uranium within the next three years.
Many energy stocks are listed in Canada. That is especially true of uranium explorers. However we will discuss any stock that can be traded in the US and Canada thru direct listing or a pink sheet alternative.
Bobwins
Favorite oil plays:
Sundance Energy Australia Limited SEA.ax/SDCJF.pk
S.O 276.7 M
Sundance has assembled 115,450 net acres in various shale oil plays in the US. Their holdings are focused in the Bakken and Niobrara. Company philosophy is to buy the land early and cheap and then sell to bigger JV partners who pay a majority of the cost of drilling. This reduces risk and costs to Sundance. During 2011, Sundance and it's partners will be drilling up to 114 Bakken wells. Sundance exited 2010 around 1,000boepd and is forecasting a 2,000boepd exit rate for 2011. The Niobrara is the next big opportunity for Sundance. They have sold land to Noble Energy with a 3.7% ORRI and JV'd a small parcel with Halliburton. Right now they have a higher working interest in the remaining Niobrara acreage but could sell down more to reduce risk. Sundance also has another early shale oil play in the Atoka, which is in Colorado. May be some exploration by others in the area in 2011. Pawnee is a new area in Kansas/Oklahoma that Sundance has just entered. Sundance has a nice land package in several areas. Their mgmt is excellent and has been grown the company in a low risk way by selling land and working interest to lower cash requirements. As production is increasing, cashflow will provide much of the funds needed to drill and acquire land, reducing the need to issue shares.
http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/ http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/2011/03.07.11-SEA%20March%20Roadshow%20Presentation.pdf
Mart Resources MMT.v/MAUXF.pk
S.O 335.5 M F.D. 342M
Mart Resources is a Canadian producer working exclusively in Nigeria. They have been developing what Nigeria considers a marginal field,Umusadege. Umusadege production has grown significantly over the past two years as Mart drilled UM-6 and 7 in 2010 and each tested multiple zones with test results over 10,000bpd each. Each is producing in the 3,000 to 5,000bpd range with several zones behind pipe. UM-8 is being drilled in July 2011 and should be completed and producing by late 2011. Gross production for the field should move over 10,000bpd. Recently Mart has suffered from takeaway pipeline capacity problems. They had an outage in December 2010 when the pipeline was damaged in an explosion. That caused a shutdown for several weeks. Mart still got the revenue from the pipeline company and had to make it up during Q1 2011. With the new wells coming online, Mart has tried to arrange for more capacity. They had a preliminary agreement to boost takeaway capacity to 20,000bpd gross from AGIP, the pipeline operator. Recently they were told the fee for pipeline losses would jump from 1 to 1.5% to over 11%. Mart refused to pay and AGIP has restricted capacity back to the original agreement of around 8500bpd. Mart is negotiating with Shell to build a second pipeline but is at least 1 year away from having a second option. There is likely room for negotiation with AGIP but this takeaway capacity is a crucial near term issue for Mart. In addition to several more development wells at Umudasege, Mart is actively trying to secure additional marginal fields that Nigeria is putting up for bid.
Mart is an undervalued producer. The Nigerian location is a negative as well as the dependence on Umusadege field for all their production. However the production could grow to as much as 30,000bpd gross in 2012 so the company has near term upside. Mart is selling for around 2X fwd cashflow. However the pipeline issue could delay achieving the projected cashflow.
http://www.martresources.com/
Latest presentation from 2011 AGM:http://www.martresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/21/events/Mart-Resources-corporate-presentation_June24_updated-2.pdf
Saratoga Resources SROE.ob
S.O. 19.7 million
Saratoga Resources is a US based driller with significant acreage in the shallow Gulf of Mexico. Their acreage is in areas governed by the State of Louisiana versus the deeper Gulf waters governed by the Federal authorities. Saratoga got into cashflow problems and went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy to protect it's assets. The lenders wanted to dilute common shareholders out of the picture and take over the assets. Mgmt are big common shareholders and resisted the proposals and worked thru the court system. Two years later, Saratoga has paid off all vendors and has finally refinanced the old lenders. This should free them up to get better financing and aggressively drill out their near term prospects. Current production is around 2,850bpd with plans to increase production to 4,000bpd by the end of Q3.
Saratoga has a PV10 value of 1.3 billion using total resources and 438million using total reserves and 12/31/10 strip pricing. The current market cap is around 100million. Very undervalued versus resources. Cash has not been available for Saratoga to aggressively drill. The situation is improving with a recent financing giving Saratoga an expanded capex budget to pursue what they say is hundreds of drilling opportunities. They are focusing on oil heavy prospects but the majority of their reserves are gas. Saratoga has several deep Gulf prospects that they are seeking to JV. The recent refinance of their long term debt should allow them to negotiate from a stronger position. Many would be partners have been concerned about Saratoga's ability to finance their end of the deal.
http://www.saratogaresources.net/
Favorite gas play:
Favorite Oil Sand Plays:
Oil Sand Charts: http://investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21045182
PETROBANK ENERGY AND RESOURCES PBG.to PBEGF.PK
http://www.petrobank.com/
S.O. ~76million
F.D. ~89million(8.9million convertible+4 million options)
Southern Pacific Resources Corp. STP.v STPJF.PK
http://www.shpacific.com/
S.O. 41M
F.D. 55M
STP has 80% interest in 25 contiguous sections of oil sands.
If STP can deliver the increased new 43-101 resource estimate at 300-500 million barrels in early June, with only 55M shares fully diluted, it will be one of the cheapest oil sand resource companies in Canada.
Alberta Oil Sands(Platform Resource) AOS.v AOSDF.PK
http://www.platformresources.com/
S.O. 39.0 M
F.D. 42.5 M
PFM owns 40 sections (25,600) Acres of lease in Athabasca oil sands area in northeast Alberta. 23 sections have estimated an undiscovered resource of 1.15 billion barrel of initial bitumen
in place (IBIP). The other 17 sections are not explored.
Patch International PTCH.OB
http://www.patchenergy.com/s/Home.asp
F.D. 33.4M
PTCH own 75%-80% interests of oil sand leases, after spending the exploration capital.
Ft. McMurray Oil Sands Area
The Ft. McMurray Oil Sands Area oil sands leases consist of Dover/Ells (32 gross sections, 25.6 net sections) and Firebag (18 gross sections, 13.5 net sections).
PTCH claims to have 1.5 billion bbls bitumen in place (gross)
Muskwa Oil Sands Area
In townships 85/86 and ranges 24/25w4 the Corporation has 10 gross sections (7.5 net) of oil sands leases in the Muskwa area.
NORTH PEACE ENERGY (NPE.V NPCEF.PK)
http://www.northpec.com/
S.O. 26.3 M
F.D. 34.3 M
Approx 60,000 net (86,000 gross) acres of prospective oil sands leases in north central alberta
Initial results confirm the estimated discovered resource in the order of 2 to 3.1 billion barrels.
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