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Volume on I3 looks positive.
What a rally! + new company I3 energy
Rally of a lifetime for me as family's portfolio has been 90% oil producers since oil price started climbing in November! Opportunity of a lifetime in oil market really playing out which was original thesis.
Haven't tried to trade at all including (unwisely perhaps) not taking anything off the table before yesterday's OPEC meeting.
Anyways - here is a producer that is off everyone's radar as I think they were originally an AIM junior that only listed on the TSX in November after an acquisition of 9,000 boepd from privately listed Gain Energy that was perhaps also rationalizing assets during the downturn.
i3 Energy IET.TO. They also have an AIM listing that may be more liquid? As of today they trade at a $C 98mm Market Cap and as of June 2020* they had £15mm or $C 27mm of notes/debt issued for an EV of approx. $C 125mm with current Alberta/Saskatchewan production of 9,150 boepd (41% liquids) so are trading at $C 13,700/boepd (EV/boepd) on production below plus it looks like they have a nice North Sea discovery with a P50 STOIIP of 197MMbbls. They have logging results in a PR and the presentation so perhaps they drilled an exploration well but need a partner (and a permanent platform) to turn it into a producer. Icing on the cake.
*last set of public FS from mid-year 2020 per AIM semi-annual reporting requirements only
This is last PR.
i3 last ops release
This is last Corporate Presentation.
Presentation
Hard to find but this is last set of FS I found. Didn't search SEDAR but didn't find anything disclosed via stockwatch since i3 traded on the TSX.
June-20 AIM Report
It would seem that the SGY and GTE boards on CEO really illustrate the nature of the CEO website as a whole. The fact that there was little activity prior to your buy shows that there is very little original thought going on there. The whole thing was designed as a promotional space for the Canadian resource sector. I think it is best to use any info from the site as a starting point only. At the current time, my largest position is in CNQ that I have had for years resulting from a buyout of Ranger oil decades ago. I am looking for a whopping stock market correction coming up that will drive down the best names with the worst names and actually give a substantial opportunity in both energy and metals. Many make the attempt to call a top and few succeed but it looks like things are lining up to be one for the record books.
GXE.TO (Huesos)
..Huesos I think you have joined a few of my positions! I find the CEO board is a good indicator of astute retail Canadian resource industry interest. It was pretty quiet when I bought SGY and the GXE board does not have any real posts since early December.
Volume has picked on GXE. It will explode higher like SGY within a week IMO.
Just posed some questions on the CEO.CA board if anyone wants to follow. Only red flag for GXE is the large abandonment liability but the market will not care about this in 2021 IMO.
CEO GXE Board
SGY - next one GXE.TO
SGY should be a big winner for me. I should have bought more. Oops!
FYI - I just traded some of my largest cap intermediate Canadian oil producers that have been big winners (CPG - Crescent Point, MEG) today that turned into outsize positions in certain accounts for this little Canadian producer:
Gear Energy GXE.TO.
Just looked and ended up buying 205,000 shares across accounts this morning!
Basically all the small Canadian oil producers went stratospheric last week and today while the larger caps have not as much. Small Cap space playing catch up.
This is a catch up-trade for little 5000 boepd oil producer with low costs and some of lowest relative debt in the Alberta Oil Patch (only ERF.TO/ERF may be lower).
Read the last PR and then flip the presentation below and then look at the chart and my buy should be crystal clear.
Last Press Release
Presentation: see slides 3, 9 & 18
*See Slide 9 for Dec-21 FFO/Net Debt @ WTI $60
*Also see slide 18. I bet at Feb 8 Strip prices Gear will do $CAD .40/share FFO in 2021 (Slide 18 at January 8th strip). It is trading at just north of $CAD 0.30/share ($CAD 61mm market cap) with $CAD 61mm of Net Debt. Quick math and GXE.TO is at 1.6X 2021 FFO/EV today. Stupid Cheap.
Note I did not do the calculation before I bought 200k+ shares but am now glad I did! This is why I like posting here as it forces you to write out your thesis...I would go and buy some! Easy to get filled today.
SGY moved up on friday on some fairly significant volume.
GTE is firing. Up 47%. How's that for predicting the future?
SU appears to yield 3.58 %. The all time.high was above 70. Seems like a solid speculation at this point.
One more thing (Bullish)
Suncor SU.TO one of largest public cos on TSX, formerly largest oil producer (now second I think after CNRL-Husky merger underway) has had a golden cross.
This is the go to no brainer name for generalists looking for oil exposure. Very good for all the mid and small caps I own!
Largest Energy COs Canada
Bought SGY.TO
Sold half of a an oversize position that doubled in MEG.TO which should have been a leader, and was.
Just take a look at the chart and if oil market stays flat to up I think SGY will get bid up to fill the gap at 0.60 to 0.75.
So I’m moving down into a smaller oily producer doing 17k boepd now at maybe 70% oil and NGL with a 20% corporate decline rate.
They have a lot of debt and company was going to be forced to sell but that pressure has been alleviated now. Jusf read the Q3 PR a couple times.
Thoughts posted here tonight. Board quiet. Very few Candian oily producers that haven’t leaped yet in 2021 and this is one!
CEO Board
That is the most useful chart posted in a while. Thanks.
That is the most useful chart posted in a while. Thanks.
Pick 4 Contest #13 Picks Deadline Today and Less Than 7 Hours Away.
Remember to get your picks in. Picks must be in before the market close. Below is the link to the board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-13-38836/
Pick 4 Contest #13 Board is up.
Remember to get your picks in. Picks must be in before the market close on Thursday 12/31. Below is the link to the board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-13-38836/
It was a sincere question. I couldn't find the US symbol for WMK.V
ie: TracX Holdings symbol TKX.V / TKXHF
Why waste space on this thread with your nonsense?
Yes, if you put the .V on it, lol. Is there a US symbol for it?
WMK.V is it reasonable to assume that most people here will recognize that most stocks discussed here are Canadian?
WMK? That is Weiss Markets.
In the true speculation space, WMK has gone vertical on the weeklies. Market cap is 4.2 million and looks to have under 40 million shares outstanding.
FEC.TO
CEO.CA. board pretty active. It is mostly active Canadian retail investors there who primarily play in resources. Pretty good crowd I found.
Key fact pattern I got from there today is that the old Pacific Rubiales took on too much debt and this crashed the company. FEC.TO is what emerged and the shareholders are mostly lenders so this explains why they hedged basically 6 months of production at Brent 35 which will go down in history as one of the worst moves in the sector in H2-2020!
Thanks, Interesting ... I check FEC.t out & put it on my live feed...
FEC.TO quick facts
- interested because chart has a ton of upside and they are a large producer and International Canadian listed companies just started moving early last week.
- i think they do mostly heavy oil. The Q3 Results PR discloses ‘net realized sales price’ and I remember seeing a US 10/bbl ‘quality, royalty and transportation discount’ in maybe the 2019 MD&A. So assume $10 less than Brent.
- they now own a strategic bulk liquid cargo terminal near Panama canal. Need to look at this history but don’t think Frontera is given any value for that.
- they did 70k boepd production in Q1 not my 63k from before. It looks like it is all the higher cost (read: transport) production in Peru they shut in. A bit of a free call option for when Brent prices eventually rise.
GTE.TO/GTE - sold and here is plan
Bought first, asked questions, took my 20% gain and sold today. Poster over on IV made a point and FEC.TO is dramatically cheaper, less riskier, and should be able to ramp back up to 60,000 boepd pretty quick (they did maybe 63k in Q1 before Covid shut ins).
GTE (US listing all $USD) has 785mm of debt, 20mm of cash and a 142mm MC for an EV of 902mm and has guided for 29,000 boepd in 2021.
FEC.TO has an EV of 359mm ex-strategic port assets (see slide 6 of presentation below, adjusted $C 2.10 SP for current 3.43 SP) and 239mm of cash. They are not even close to going under. They screwed up big time and hedged most of Q4 and Q1-21 production at $35 Brent. Big Oops. Market will look past this eventually. Currently producing 43k boepd.
FEC.TO is the old Pacific Rubiales that was pumped to the moon and had a stratospheric valuation. I don’t know the whole story but it is mostly Colombia and Ecuador so there is risk. Look at the latest pipeline PR for example.
Key links:
Q3 earnings slides
CEO.CA board has a good discussion
As typical for an energy sector rally, the drillers finally begin to move. Seadrill is doing it's best to liftoff against heavy odds. The first move was sold off leaving a confused signal, followed by a upward thrust on high volume. It still looks like not everyone is convinced. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDRLF
Thanks, nice job!:)...eom
GTE.TO/GTE
Posted some thoughts over here as old board might now wake up.
IV GTE Board
Huesos ERF.TO
Definitely watch the Eric Nuttal BNN segment from friday. “Market Call” show. They usually split the segment up into like 15 parts.
Think Eric said He bought 500k-1m shares in last part of week as money is flooding into his fund and it is his top pick last week because of the high royalty structure in US Bakken ERF’s free cash flow really starts to ramp when WTI goes from $50 to $60. If the contested (Dakota?) pipeline gets shit down the incremental transport cost is $2/bbl. Bakken production will not be stranded.
Watch the clip. Around 2/3 of way through show. Here are my notes I typed out:
ERF.TO - could be 2-to-3 bagger. Prinary asser is bakken and has high royalty. Above $50 the cash flow really, really ramps. FCF yield at 25% . Daffold pipeline market scared. Eric bought a lot in last 2 days. 500k-1m shares.
ERF.TO is down about 15 fold from it's all time high. Makes you wonder if the entire royalty pricing structure has caused this or if the price action was simply a result of the collapse of crude.
Thanks for your insight I bought a few shares myself the last few days) Luckily I bought a few shares of WCP a few months back...
GTE.TO/GTE
Filled at $C 0.50, closed at 0.53. Will post some thoughts this weekend!
Canadian Oil Producer Trade
Couple quick things:
- haven’t sold a single net share out of trade
- trying to buy GTE.TO at $C 0.50 this morning. Market caught on and likely not going any lower
- Eric Nuttal on bnnblommberg market call at 12pm EST today so watch that full segment over weekend.
- my holdings for mostly Alberta-SK focused oil producers are CPG.TO, MEG.TO, BTE.TO, TOG.TO/WCP merger, and ERF.TO
- my Alberta oil royalty holding is FRU.TO
- my NGLs-Condensate holding is NVA.TO and has barely budged so is a buy still
- my two Brent international TSX listed holdings are VET.TO and GTE.TO. Vermillion VET.TO is a diversified producer and got creamed along with rest of Canadian oil sector despite recieving brent pricing and strong gas pricing on Netherlands’ Groningen gas field on which the country is very dependent.
That produced a positive price reaction rather than the usual selloff. The market sees WCP as a leader into the future.
WCP.TO buys TOG.TO
I owned only TOG.TO....now I’ll own WCP. WCP set to be a serial acquirer in Northern oilpatch. This is their second acquisition in last few months,
Link
GTE.TO/GTE - buying more
Bought more GTE on US exchanges at +20% on the day. Think there is a ton of upside here still.
I’m currently selling about $C 15k of Kelt KEL.TO after looking a bit closer. They are like 60-70% nat gas production by boes now and guiding for production to drop about 15% next year. They made a huge disposition and are sitting on a lot of cash so market is waiting on them to make a move so aren’t participating in current rally really.
Plan is to roll this into GTE.TO tomorrow but going to wait a day as GTE historically pretty volatile. Have some orders in at $C 0.47 now which is around the low of the day from an hour ago I caught on the US exchanges.
GTE.TO/GTE +30% this morning
Good news keeps on coming! Gran Tierra issued a PR showing they aren’t going bankrupt next year and production was recovering back to pre-Covid levels and market realized GTE hadn’t really participated in sector rally and bid it up over 30% from where I purchased yesterday at $C 0.40.
Total fluke on timing as I was mostly looking for chart lagards but nice to see all my trades working out...especially as I bought GTE on margin.
Huesos....
...just you and me on the board! My twitter feed is lit up with Canadians loving Trican TCW.TO and I believe Eric Nuttall started adding Precision Drilling only in last couple months (PD.TO \ PDS). TCW.TO chart in beauty uptrend.
I scanned all my oil producer charts last night and this morning and literally just put in an order for GTE.TO / GTE who has been left for dead by chart. A lot of debt and shut in a ton of production but has barely budged with recent sector move so adding this one to my shoot for fence speculative cos like Baytex.
Order at $C 0.40 and waiting for a fill on GTE.TO. Once a darling, now written off. I like!
I scanned presentation quick and then searched for BNN but no one has really mentioned this company or pumped it since rally really kicked in during last few months.
Heartiest congratulations to you for your foresight and execution on a solid plan. The drillers are obviously the next subsector to move.
CPG.TO/CPG **read all three of my posts**
Speak of the devil! Looked at CPG’s PR from Friday and here is the MASSIVE leverage inherent in CPG at these WTI levels (spot WTI is $46 as I write this).
“approximately $35 million of funds flow sensitivity for every US$1/bbl change in WTI”
“Excess cash flow of approximately $150 to $300 million expected in 2021 at US$45/bbl to US$50/bbl WTI with a target reinvestment ratio of less than 75 percent”
So if WTI goes up $5 and stays there CPG’s funds flow goes up by $150mm. That is about $30mm of funds flow per $1 WTI compared to their first comment.
(Didn’t check but remember CPG reports in USD so all numbers above are in USD. Welcome to the daily Canadian currency sense check!)
Friday News Release
Some charts from Eric Nuttal...
...he posted on Twitter. Follow him for Canadian oil investing but note he is biased to upside of course. Maybe a month old but his is why I added to MEG.TO and BTE.TO as they had most upside.
Note: you can buy Baytex on the NYSE too as BTE.
Format not great as screenshots from my ipad while on Twitter but these last two posts are the posts of the year on this board!
Sorry for not letting everyone know my big trade but I have been absolutely buried in work since September.
I’ve minted a small fortune so far....
...haven’t posted in a while but if you remember from Nov/Dec 2019 I put on a big Canadian O&G producer trade I sold out of a month later. That set the stage for buying a lot of the Canadian oil producers once the Covid bottom was in. I bought mostly gold producers out of Covid bottom but then caught the early summer O&G high and then have bought a huge position in last couple months leading up to huge rally in last 3 weeks.
I followed Eric Nuttall on BNN Bloomberg (Canada’s financial network) all year and basically bought his top 10 holdings and top picks which have changed a bit over the last 6 months. The low decline Canadian producer where at their cheapest valuations pretty much ever even after the bottom.
No brainer positions are CPG.TO/CPG, MEG.TO, FRU.TO (Canadian oil royalty play), and VET.TO which is the Canada small cap international play. VET.TO was a no brainer when I bought as maybe 20-30% of revenues is strategic Netherdlands Groningen natural gas where spot prices doubled and VET.TO hadn’t moved.
WCP.TO is now the ‘blue chip’ pure play small cap oil producer in Canada that institutions can buy. Carbon neutral as they inject C02 into old field I thought WCP was too pricey and had moved too high but it has almost doubled again in last two weeks. Shoot!
So anyways - I didn’t buy WCP.TO as I thought these smalller cap Canada Oil producers would have much more upside: TOG.TO, KEL.TO, ERF.TO and BTE.TO.
I think it makes sense to still buy ERF.TO as it had and still has lowest debt out of most oil producers in Canada (and North America). They were like 0.3X debt:CF a few months ago.
My ‘swing for fence’ bet is BTE.TO which is a Canadian Heavy Oil Producer with Way too much debt. All the comp sets were showing BTE would have most upside on a move from WTI $40 to WTI $60 though. It could still triple from here (back over $C 2.00 from 0.70 now) if WTI goes from $50 to $60.
Those all above are majority (>60% production) oil producers and my only gassy holding is NVA.TO which has a ton of liquids/condensate production and Eric Nuttal really likes for the long run. Condensate pricing will go up as Canada Oil Sands productiom comes back with higher prices. I actually bought this last week as chart looks set for a nice run.
Don’t buy WCP.TO after the double but the next most logical parking spot for funds is CPG.TO which you can buy on the US exchanges as CPG. 120,00 bopd producer and is higher cost so actually has huge leverage here. Eric Nuttal mentioned this a few times over the year, but with WTI at $50 CPG’s cash flow maybe doubled compared to WTI $40 and CPG can easily double again here if WTI goes to $60.
All the Canadian producers are lower decline and valuations were at generational lows over the last 15 months that I never looked at US producers.
Eric’s top holdings are here. Don’t own his two big gas holdings Arc and 7 Generations.
https://www.ninepoint.com/funds/ninepoint-energy-fund/
Now I should go look at oil service stocks!
We have obviously hit a turning point in the sector. It's time to come back to the board and restart the discussion of specific names.
Great webcast from Eric Nuttal.
I've been trading in and out of CPG.TO, ERF.TO, WCP.TO, MEG.TO, NVA.TO and TOG.TO.
LMK if you have any questions.
Planning on putting overnight long position on with most of these by the end of the week.
Webcast
If that doesn't work it can be found from front page of Ninepoint Partners LP.
It is about a month old from May 1
Pick 4 Contest #12 Deadline for Picks Today before market close.
Remember to get your picks in before today's deadline before the market close. Less than 6 Hours from deadline. Below is the link to the board. Hope this helps.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-12-37836/
Pick 4 Contest #12 Friday (5/8)
Remember to get your picks in before the market close on Friday, May 8th. Below is the link to the board.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Pick-4-Contest-No-12-37836/
Well in this carnage I think CNQ on a retest of its lows down towards $7. Then the dividend is over 15%.
I still like TXP.TO with their new discovery in Trinidad & Tobago.
I think NG bottoms (last week might have been the test of April 2nd low) with all the shut ins which will be occurring in the next few months.
The problem with liquidity with a credit line is the line dries up pretty quick when the underlying asset goes from $40+WTI to $20 or below.
I like Eric but we are in a depression in the oil patch. Will last for at least a year. Similar to the early 1080's.
Eric Nuttall & Canada O&G Again (@Tim Lamb)
It is a bit tricky to find since Bloomberg bought BNN but if you go to April 3rd Market Call you'll find Eric's segment:
Market Call
Two of his top picks, similar to when he was on last December are Crecent Point (CPG/CPG.TO) and MEG Energy (MEG).
Here are my notes! I'm thinking of swinging for the fence with some of Eric's top picks sometime in April as think we'll get another bottom before any coordinated global production cut. The comparison here is December 22, 2008, which was, prior to 2020, the biggest one-day increase in oil prices in history, but, if you look at a long term brent chart, there was a secondary bottom in early 2009
Source is 3/4 way down this page
Eric's Call:
- Demand drop of 25mbbl/day is largest in history by order of - magnitude.
- We're set in 2020 to have a strong year of oil pricing as offshore production was set to begin a terminal decline due to under investments and that is 1-in-4 global barrels produced.
- Every oil company in the world is bankrupt at this cost. Not sustainable.
- He thinks shut-ins and curtailments the market reacts with will “blow people’s mind’s”. My interpretation is that we won’t cut 25 mmbl/day (which is current demand shock) but we will cut a lot.
- Canada’s base decline rate is 24-25%. This is one of lowest and reason why Eric is 100% invested in Canadian producers now.
- TORC – doesn’t have a large enough hedge book for him to buy now, but will be fine.
- “The best have fallen as much as the junk” Only need to buy the quality
- Enerplus – has 50% of production hedged for 2020. 20% at $57. 22% at $11 premium to WTI. 0.2X Debt to cash flow at WTI $50 so balance sheet is rock solid here. See very meaningful upside.
- At start of 2020, Canadian stocks were already valued at some of cheapest multiples in history.
- Sounds like a US fund bought 20 million shares of XEG (ishares Canadian oil producers ETF). Eric’s names will do better though. He has a history of doing this.
- Whitecap has had a bunch of insider buying in last couple weeks per a caller.
- Caller on Suncor. Suncor is burning cash and should cut most of dividend. Has liquidity to get through next year and half. Thinks you can do way better on other names. Cash burn is $4.1Bn at WTI $30.
- Baytex is down at $0.40! He sold it on the way down. They are 48% hedged. They are only drawn 15% on their bank lines and they did a big refinancing right before Covid broke. No reason to own now. Can buy names with better balance sheets.
- Crescent Point Energy (I bought $5k worth today): Still a core holding. 10% of his fund in it this one stock. Rock solid balance sheet monetized assets late 2019. Hedged very aggressively at $60 WTI. 17-18% of oil hedged at $WTI 54. 38% gets a $10 premium to WTI. At WTI $25 oil they will only cash burn $100 million dollars That is Debt to cash flow of 3.7X at WTI $25. Have $2B of liquidity on credit line. They will survive.
- MEG Energy Top Pick – 2/3 of volumes to be shipped by rail in a couple months to gulf coast. 55$ hdge at $59 WTI. Would have generated $700mm of free cash. Top takeout Target in Canada. High Quality asset base.
- Nuvista NVA Top Pick – 34% hedged at $C 76/bbl. 24% of liquids stream gets a premium to WTI. They raised $600m in August 2018 and now market cap is $150mm! They can survive the storm and rerate should be “incredible”. This is Eric’s Biggest Position.
- Cenovus Top Pick – Cash burn at $30 oil is 1l1bn on 4Bn of liquidity. This is the only large cap Eric owns and it should be a multi bagger.
The Junior Energy board is designed to highlight undervalued junior energy stocks. Commodity prices are going to be volatile and difficult to predict even though the fundamentals point towards higher prices. To help offset the volatility in prices, we are looking for strong increases in production and low price to cashflow or p/e ratios.
Uranium stocks are more difficult to handicap because there are so few producing companies and even fewer profitable companies. To help narrow the search, we will focus on near term producers that have defined deposits and have goals to produce uranium within the next three years.
Many energy stocks are listed in Canada. That is especially true of uranium explorers. However we will discuss any stock that can be traded in the US and Canada thru direct listing or a pink sheet alternative.
Bobwins
Favorite oil plays:
Sundance Energy Australia Limited SEA.ax/SDCJF.pk
S.O 276.7 M
Sundance has assembled 115,450 net acres in various shale oil plays in the US. Their holdings are focused in the Bakken and Niobrara. Company philosophy is to buy the land early and cheap and then sell to bigger JV partners who pay a majority of the cost of drilling. This reduces risk and costs to Sundance. During 2011, Sundance and it's partners will be drilling up to 114 Bakken wells. Sundance exited 2010 around 1,000boepd and is forecasting a 2,000boepd exit rate for 2011. The Niobrara is the next big opportunity for Sundance. They have sold land to Noble Energy with a 3.7% ORRI and JV'd a small parcel with Halliburton. Right now they have a higher working interest in the remaining Niobrara acreage but could sell down more to reduce risk. Sundance also has another early shale oil play in the Atoka, which is in Colorado. May be some exploration by others in the area in 2011. Pawnee is a new area in Kansas/Oklahoma that Sundance has just entered. Sundance has a nice land package in several areas. Their mgmt is excellent and has been grown the company in a low risk way by selling land and working interest to lower cash requirements. As production is increasing, cashflow will provide much of the funds needed to drill and acquire land, reducing the need to issue shares.
http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/ http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/2011/03.07.11-SEA%20March%20Roadshow%20Presentation.pdf
Mart Resources MMT.v/MAUXF.pk
S.O 335.5 M F.D. 342M
Mart Resources is a Canadian producer working exclusively in Nigeria. They have been developing what Nigeria considers a marginal field,Umusadege. Umusadege production has grown significantly over the past two years as Mart drilled UM-6 and 7 in 2010 and each tested multiple zones with test results over 10,000bpd each. Each is producing in the 3,000 to 5,000bpd range with several zones behind pipe. UM-8 is being drilled in July 2011 and should be completed and producing by late 2011. Gross production for the field should move over 10,000bpd. Recently Mart has suffered from takeaway pipeline capacity problems. They had an outage in December 2010 when the pipeline was damaged in an explosion. That caused a shutdown for several weeks. Mart still got the revenue from the pipeline company and had to make it up during Q1 2011. With the new wells coming online, Mart has tried to arrange for more capacity. They had a preliminary agreement to boost takeaway capacity to 20,000bpd gross from AGIP, the pipeline operator. Recently they were told the fee for pipeline losses would jump from 1 to 1.5% to over 11%. Mart refused to pay and AGIP has restricted capacity back to the original agreement of around 8500bpd. Mart is negotiating with Shell to build a second pipeline but is at least 1 year away from having a second option. There is likely room for negotiation with AGIP but this takeaway capacity is a crucial near term issue for Mart. In addition to several more development wells at Umudasege, Mart is actively trying to secure additional marginal fields that Nigeria is putting up for bid.
Mart is an undervalued producer. The Nigerian location is a negative as well as the dependence on Umusadege field for all their production. However the production could grow to as much as 30,000bpd gross in 2012 so the company has near term upside. Mart is selling for around 2X fwd cashflow. However the pipeline issue could delay achieving the projected cashflow.
http://www.martresources.com/
Latest presentation from 2011 AGM:http://www.martresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/21/events/Mart-Resources-corporate-presentation_June24_updated-2.pdf
Saratoga Resources SROE.ob
S.O. 19.7 million
Saratoga Resources is a US based driller with significant acreage in the shallow Gulf of Mexico. Their acreage is in areas governed by the State of Louisiana versus the deeper Gulf waters governed by the Federal authorities. Saratoga got into cashflow problems and went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy to protect it's assets. The lenders wanted to dilute common shareholders out of the picture and take over the assets. Mgmt are big common shareholders and resisted the proposals and worked thru the court system. Two years later, Saratoga has paid off all vendors and has finally refinanced the old lenders. This should free them up to get better financing and aggressively drill out their near term prospects. Current production is around 2,850bpd with plans to increase production to 4,000bpd by the end of Q3.
Saratoga has a PV10 value of 1.3 billion using total resources and 438million using total reserves and 12/31/10 strip pricing. The current market cap is around 100million. Very undervalued versus resources. Cash has not been available for Saratoga to aggressively drill. The situation is improving with a recent financing giving Saratoga an expanded capex budget to pursue what they say is hundreds of drilling opportunities. They are focusing on oil heavy prospects but the majority of their reserves are gas. Saratoga has several deep Gulf prospects that they are seeking to JV. The recent refinance of their long term debt should allow them to negotiate from a stronger position. Many would be partners have been concerned about Saratoga's ability to finance their end of the deal.
http://www.saratogaresources.net/
Favorite gas play:
Favorite Oil Sand Plays:
Oil Sand Charts: http://investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21045182
PETROBANK ENERGY AND RESOURCES PBG.to PBEGF.PK
http://www.petrobank.com/
S.O. ~76million
F.D. ~89million(8.9million convertible+4 million options)
Southern Pacific Resources Corp. STP.v STPJF.PK
http://www.shpacific.com/
S.O. 41M
F.D. 55M
STP has 80% interest in 25 contiguous sections of oil sands.
If STP can deliver the increased new 43-101 resource estimate at 300-500 million barrels in early June, with only 55M shares fully diluted, it will be one of the cheapest oil sand resource companies in Canada.
Alberta Oil Sands(Platform Resource) AOS.v AOSDF.PK
http://www.platformresources.com/
S.O. 39.0 M
F.D. 42.5 M
PFM owns 40 sections (25,600) Acres of lease in Athabasca oil sands area in northeast Alberta. 23 sections have estimated an undiscovered resource of 1.15 billion barrel of initial bitumen
in place (IBIP). The other 17 sections are not explored.
Patch International PTCH.OB
http://www.patchenergy.com/s/Home.asp
F.D. 33.4M
PTCH own 75%-80% interests of oil sand leases, after spending the exploration capital.
Ft. McMurray Oil Sands Area
The Ft. McMurray Oil Sands Area oil sands leases consist of Dover/Ells (32 gross sections, 25.6 net sections) and Firebag (18 gross sections, 13.5 net sections).
PTCH claims to have 1.5 billion bbls bitumen in place (gross)
Muskwa Oil Sands Area
In townships 85/86 and ranges 24/25w4 the Corporation has 10 gross sections (7.5 net) of oil sands leases in the Muskwa area.
NORTH PEACE ENERGY (NPE.V NPCEF.PK)
http://www.northpec.com/
S.O. 26.3 M
F.D. 34.3 M
Approx 60,000 net (86,000 gross) acres of prospective oil sands leases in north central alberta
Initial results confirm the estimated discovered resource in the order of 2 to 3.1 billion barrels.
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