Systematic Investing Group (SIG)

[nokodemion]

Hey lost cowboy,

I used AIM with crypto the last 5 years, also with some tweaks. It was good for me, but meh... it's not performing really good, it performs decent.

And many times the last years everytime synchrovest came up in my mind.
I build a bot, using synchrovest... a beta version just to see if I could automate it. But nothing serious.

And still, its haunting me, to start that project again.

The problem is, how can we use synchrovest in the following setup.

There is coin X

When I stake this coin X I receive 3.x% APR a year. Payout as soon its greater as 0.001 coin X. And when staked, I can delegate it and make 25%-50% APR Payout every /hour-day.

Now this is all on a blockchain. The delegation payouts, I can send to my exchange as coin X every hour. So its accumulating there.

Now comes synchrovest.

Suppost I invested 1000 USD in coinx, I stake this and delegate it.

On the blockchain. 3.X% staking rewards will grow my 1000 USD. Compounding. Its not liquid. Unstaking is 30 days weekly payout 4 parts.

But the 25%-50% APR delegation payout I receive liquid every hour. I can send this to my account on the exchange or I stake it again adding to the 1000USD I Invested and staked. Compounding.

Now averaging... comes in... those liquids delegation rewards would be nice to stake only if the coin x price is a percentage lower then my average price staked.I can automate that. Say only when the coinx price on the exchange is say 10% lower than my average stakes price, stake the rewards otherwise when coinx price on exchange is higher than my stakes avergae price send it to exchange and sell it market/limit, whatever the price is. This will accumulate my cash balance.

Now when there would be a drop in coinx price, say 20% lower than my average staked price, then buy 20% of my whole cash balance, and send it to the blockchain and stake it. We will get a much lower average staked price. When it drops again 20% buy another 20% etc.

Rinse and repeat.

Next to that I put into cash 10USD a day. I used my cash balance with a limit say 20%, everyhting above that, I buy Stable Coins, on the exchange and get a 6.10% APR in stable coins. USDC for example.

This is totally not optimsed. Would love to hear your take on it.

There are many states involved, what todo when??? What is optimal?

There is no sell all moment. Etc.

Do you use discord? maybe we could chat, My english is not very good. But It will be fine.

Regdards,

[lostcowboy]

First, I am not going to be doing any planning for a large lump sum amount of money. Just a Systematic once a period plan. I want a plan that can work with something like an index, and also something as wild as BitCoin or some other crypto coin.

With the stock market, they say it goes up 3/4ths of the time, so that sounds like a good ratio of stocks/(cash/bonds) ratio to start with. SO amount per month X .75 to stocks, 0.25 to cash/bonds.

So as long as the stock market is in a bull market I invest (Amount X .75).

But what about Dips? Buy more on the Dips! How? Add (Williams %R) to the formula! The period is to be determined later, but at least 52Ws I believe. So now our formula looks like (Amount X (Williams %R +0.75) or (amount X a range between 0.75 and 1.75). If we use (.75 X (1 + Williams %R) we get a range between 0.75 and 1.5.

Average Cost, we want the average cost to be as low as possible. If the current price is above average cost the average cost will go higher. Only when the current price is below the average cost will the average cost go lower. Also, the number of periods involved will have an effect on how much the average cost will move. For example, if you have been investing the same amount for 24 periods then each price point will affect the average cost by (100%/24 = 4.1%) the only way to have a greater effect is by investing a greater amount than average for that period. This is why Robert Lichello had a second part to his Synchrovest plan formula, for investing large amounts when the current price was below the average cost. He used ((average cost/current price)- 1) X (cash/bonds). I still like the idea of using a two-part formula.

Should we sell when we have a decent profit? how much is good enough? should we sell all at once or a little at a time? Should we be selling during the bull market, or wait until we are over the hump, and how much of a decline is big enough, can it be done? All this is to be determined upon a later date.

[lostcowboy]

Buy the Dip!

What does buy the dip mean? What's a dip? It looks like there is not a good definition of what a stock dip is. So let's call it a decline of between 5 and 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.

What Is a Correction?

In investing, a correction is usually defined as a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.

What Is a Bear Market?

A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.

What Is a Bull Market?
A bull market is a period of time in financial markets when the price of an asset or security rises continuously.
The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each.

What Is the Average Cost Method?

The average cost method assigns a cost to inventory items based on the total cost of goods purchased or produced in a period divided by the total number of items purchased or produced. The average cost method is also known as the weighted-average method.

What Is Dollar-Cost Averaging(DCA)?

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which an investor divides up the total amount to be invested across periodic purchases of a target asset in an effort to reduce the impact of volatility on the overall purchase. The purchases occur regardless of the asset's price and at regular intervals.

What is Synchrovest?

Synchrovest is an investment plan created by Robert Lichello in his book Super Power Investing

What are AIM and Twinvest? Aim and Twinvest were created by Robert Lichello in his book How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically: Twinvest was added after the second edition I believe.

What is Williams %R?

Williams %R, also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a type of momentum indicator that moves between 0 and -100 and measures overbought and oversold levels. The Williams %R may be used to find entry and exit points in the market. The indicator is very similar to the Stochastic oscillator and is used in the same way. It was developed by Larry Williams and it compares a stock’s closing price to the high-low range over a specific period, typically 14 days or periods.

So where the heck am I going with this. I have been getting more interested in Cryptocoin and bitcoin. I saw this site www.dca-cc.com Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) calculator for Bitcoin (BTC) backtesting, I thought WOW, how good could Synchrovest do? so I loaded up my spreadsheet, added the numbers and it did not even come close to beating DCA.

I did not test with AIM or Twinvest, but I suspect the results would have been similar

So it is back to the drawing board.

[Myst]

sent

[lostcowboy]

ok got it.

[lostcowboy]

oops! my bad, send another email to [e-mail]
Thanks!

[Myst]

I sent the sheet. Let me know if you got it.

[lostcowboy]

Myst! Sorry for the very long delay! feel free to send any spreadsheets to [e-mail]

[Myst]

[SFSecurity]

Hi Jibes, I'm curious, do you have a copy of your AIM-ReBal spreadsheet I could take a peek at?

If so, please send it to me at: [e-mail]

Hope things are good,

Allen

[T695]

Might can get another flip here today

[lostcowboy]

the two posts you put on my group!

[T695]

What the h#|| are you talking about

[lostcowboy]

I guess there is a stock symbol SIG?? Who knew?

[T695]

SIG should bounce hard after earnings tomorrow

[T695]

Hope this dips pre market so I can grab some

[karw]

Lucile T. and AIM

It is very interesting to read Practical Formulas for Successful Investing and I can see why you say that Lichello knew this book.

If you look at AIM, the sell side, it looks like a Constant Dollar Plan. If you look at Portfolio Control per share and how it changes, then it is Median Line management. (which it also does at AIMs buy side)

Early 2016 the emerging markets went down a lot and I spend all AIMs cash and still got buy signals. I used iAIM to handle those signals and was able to get a few more smaller buys. I now see that that mechanism was Constant Stock Bond ratio or equalizing, the second method from L.T.s book. Maybe easier to implement than iAIM.

It is interesting to see how all these things are somehow connected.

Kind Regards, K

[lostcowboy]

Awesome! It is a shame they won't let you download it, you have to be a member. I did see that on the side you can change it to a text, but then it is page by page.

[karw]

Hi Lostcowboy,

After years looking for this book, today I was able to read Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson.

Found it here:

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.35128000268084;view=1up;seq=102

I can read it here but not download it.

Best,K

[lostcowboy]

lol lolrof

[Toofuzzy]

Hi cowboy.

I think you are lost.

Come back to the AIM board.

Toofuzzy

[lostcowboy]

Hi, I've been lurking for a long time, just not posting. I am starting to develop a interest in Bitcoin and the Altcoin's. Does anyone else have any info on them? I have been trying out a GPU miner called EasyHash for the last week, but I am not sure I want to continue as it makes my room hot. Also I have figured out this is really me renting out my computer to other people and they get any coins mined, I am only getting about two and a half dollars a day for my computer running under a heavy load all day. Not enough return on my investment.

A non-investment interest I have started is VR (virtual reality. Right now I am using a MetroPCS phone "ZTE Blade Z Max" cheapest I could find with a gyro inside, only cost me $99, then I had to get a headset another $18, this phone will only do the google Cardboard, not the more advance google Daydream. I am working on being able to stream my PC games to the phone as 3d,it's interesting.

[neko]

Hi Lostcowboy

Was away so didn't look at web site. Thank you for your answer

neko

[lostcowboy]

sorry about being away, pc computer been actting up. Twinvest should sell at 100% profit by Mr.Lichello. for some reason I did not put it into the spreadsheet. in the other sheets if you see a sell persent box they will sell if the percent profit gos over that percent.

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks LC, Re: Twinvest Hi/Lo and Twinvest M/A.............

Clever ideas both of which offer logical answers to "One size fits all."

Long bullish periods were a problem for Twinvest with the buildup of excessive cash. Bearish periods rarely soaked up all the surplus when looking at 10 or more years. It was very rare that Twinvest asked for 100+ percent of the period's contribution.

Best regards,

[neko]

Hi Lostcowboy


I forgot to ask , Does HILO Twinvest ever sell ,or it just buys only as original Twinvest. Synchrovest has selling rules as well as buying rules. What are the selling rules if any

Neko

[neko]

Hi Lostcowboy.

Thank you for your thorough explanation. There is an article on sureinvesting website about systems versus experts. Dated April 4 2017 It is a dividend oriented web site. It also has 8 rules for investing. A system just what this discussion board is about. perhaps you would like to review it or comment.

Respectfully

Neko.

[lostcowboy]

Hi Neko, in twinvest the code is based on your starting price. in twinvest hilo it is based on the 52 week hi and the 52 week low, the code is the middle price between them so it is a more dynamic code that will change over time. My thinking was, what if you start your twinvest at a market hi or a market low what would happen? To me the best code would be if you started with a code that was in the middle. That way if the stock was at a high you would start out investing a minimum amount and putting some away for a rainy day. If you are starting out at a market low, instead of putting in 75% you would be putting in 100% or maybe higher, up to you. Also the code would be able to change over time. in the moving average twinvest you use the 200 day moving average. roughly the same ideal have the code change over time. As you know stocks can change over time, I am not saying these are the way to go, just putting ideals out there for people to explore.

With Synchrovest, the average cost changes over time, I was trying to do the same thing with twinvest.

[neko]

Hi Karw and lost cowboy

What is twinvest high low. Can you explain the proceedue in words.

When is a buy signal how much a sell signal and how much .

Thank you

Neko
I've been away .Sorry for late inquiry

[karw]

More books with formulas:

These I have as well:

Investments - Schaum
Business Mathematics - Schaum
Essentials of Investments - Bodie, Kane, Marcus

[karw]

Books

The AIM book and the Value Averaging I like as well(both in possession).

F Wall Street by Joe Ponzio
This book has formulas to value individual stocks(or any asset)
which can be used in an AIM portfolio. The method is similar to the Joel Greenblatt method.

[lostcowboy]

Books I like!

Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson

Superpower Investing by Robert Lichello

How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically by Robert Lichello, short title The AIM book

Value Averaging by Michael E. Edleson

Understanding Your Financial Calculator by James F. Dalton

On buying books, I have had real good luck buying used books through Amazon.com. I think I bought Superpower investing through Thriftbooks online, I think I paid $25 Including shipping.

[lostcowboy]

Hi Karw, Thanks for the vote of confidence.

[karw]

Hi Lostcowboy,

This was posted on the AIM board, better do it here:

I copied the Current Stock Prices from the Twinvestnew spreadsheet to the Synchrovestnew spreadsheet.

Synchrovestnew is better than twinvest reinvestment but worse than twinvest 52week hi low.

twinvest and twinvest reinvestment are static.
synchrovest is dynamic and uses its own history
twinvest 52weeh hi lo ,twinvest MA and twinvest combo are dynamic and use the market data. also these are the best performers.

I am not saying they are better then the original Twinvest just different.

twinvest combo total portfolio value is more than 3 times better than total portfolio value of twinvest !

Best,K

[lostcowboy]

So, what to say, I've been away for a while. Will try to be here more often this year.

[BowlerBob]

TooFuzzy,

I believe it was Don Carlson who added a moving average to AIM to filter the signals (it seems to my memory that it was a 30 Period MA). Ocroft wrote about delaying all Buys until there was an "absence" of Buy signals, then making all Buys that were signified to that date, as expressed in dollar amounts, not share amounts. He did not handle his "Sells" in the same manner -- he was simply looking for a 20% Gain on the position -- though one could readily enough, follow that procedure in reverse. He has written lately of using the Monthly MACD in much the same way you describe using the MAs.

Thanks for replying.

Bob

[Toofuzzy]

BowlerBob

I believe it was Orcroft who came up with the idea of combining Aim with a moving average. I suggest 13 day 30 day crossover.

So dont sell any stock as directed by Aim till the 13 day crosses 30 to the downside. Then do all the delayed sells at that higher price. As a stock goes down do not purchase anything till the 13 crosses the 30 and then do the delayed buys that Aim would have had you do.

You will be buying and selling at better prices though you MIGHT miss the last trade at a turn.

Toofuzzy

[Toofuzzy]

Liam00

Check out the A.I.M. users builtin board. Aim is a way to manage investments monthly without emotion. That means you look at your investments monthly. You only make changes if called for. Lostcowboys info is probaly based on Aim.

Rebalancing once per year is acceptable also. It will have you buy low and sell high.

Toofuzzy

[Liam00]

I have a 401k plan at work, where I have set %'s of my contribution going to 4 mutual funds. pretty standard type vanilla funds. Apologies if this is covered before, but I will ask anyway!
Also, I contribute about $500 per month, and I am matched with an employer contribution of $300 per month. I put in 80% of those total contributions into the funds, and about 20% into cash.
What I am looking for is a way to maintain those amounts for at least 6 months (large fees if I make a lot of changes) However, I am looking for BUY & SELL signals for either, to switch some of my cash into the funds if they drop, or skim some off if they are going up.
When I look at some of LostCowboys cool spreadsheets, I am totally confused as to what the best approach I should take, or what spreadsheet to use (and modify if needed).
I currently re-balance my total plan about twice a year, but I cant help feeling that I could squeeze out a little better value if i sold rising funds, and also to buy into dropping funds.
Anyone have advice?
Thanks!

[neko]

Hi lc

Thank you

Neko

[lostcowboy]

Hi Neko, sorry about taking so long to respond. In the header, at the bottom is a link to my spreadsheets. They are for you to experiment with. Off hand I would say mr. Lichello has it right for the most part, except for the sell off point. I would make that around 50%. But try the spreadsheets for yourself. Note! the spreadsheets are not for real investing, just testing the ideals.

[neko]

Hi lostcowboy

What is the modern thinking and parameters about synchrovest.
Initial cash reserve percent . Sell off point as far as percent increase of the synchrovet stock position. Etcetera. What else have you or others learned about it.

Does anyone use it

I have the second edition. Mr. Lichello in last chapter recommended using blue chips. Also not buying or using more than 50 percent of cash reserve any one time.


Thank you