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Solar stocks are in repair mode. CSIQ has done great.
Solar Stocks board.
which board did I post? Sorry it's been a long time since I posted that message. GLTU
I get the feeling we're starting to bounce up after over a year of blood-letting. A few big solars are listed below. Thoughts?
FSLR down about 90% over past year, but up 21% today.
TSL down about 70% over past year, but up over 8% today.
LDK down about 70%, but up 17% today.
GTAT, profitable GTAT!!!, down about 74%, but up over 5% today.
edit: This must be great for SSOL! :)
time to average down if you bought in at the $6
Solar Glut Worsens as Supply Surge Cuts Prices 93%: Commodities
November 09, 2011, 11:29 PM EST
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World Dodges Slump With China-U.S. Buoy in Europe Crisis
By Marc Roca and Ben Sills
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of solar cells and microchips has nowhere to go but down because of a supply glut for the commodity they’re made from, a brittle charcoal-colored semiconductor baked in ovens at 600 degrees centigrade.
Polysilicon has plunged 93 percent to $33 a kilogram from $475 three years ago as the top five producers more than doubled output, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. The industry next year will produce 28 percent more of the raw material than will be consumed, up from 20 percent this year, said Robert Schramm- Fuchs and Shai Hill, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd.
“Polysilicon is a grossly, grossly, grossly oversupplied commodity product,” said Paul Leming, director of research at Ticonderoga Securities in New York. “We’re staring at years of stability where polysilicon pricing sits at something approaching cost of production and doesn’t move.”
The shift is squeezing margins for manufacturers led by Hemlock Semiconductor Corp. and Wacker Chemie AG. Solar-cell makers that use the material such as JA Solar Holdings Co. and Suntech Power Holdings Co. drove down the cost of photovoltaics, tipping three U.S. manufacturers into bankruptcy this year.
“The solar PV market has certainly reached a point where some illusions are meeting reality,” Wacker Chief Executive Officer Rudolf Staudigl told investors in an Oct. 28 conference call. “About the length of the downturn in polysilicon, I simply cannot answer.”
Cells and Chips
Polysilicon accounts for a quarter of the cost of a finished solar panel. The photovoltaic industry consumes almost 90 percent of the supply, which is also is the foundation of most computer chips made by manufacturers such as Intel Corp., the world’s largest.
Price declines for products at every step in the solar supply chain triggered a 60 percent drop in the Bloomberg Global Leaders Solar Index since February tracking 37 shares. It’s led to speculation that more poly producers and panel makers may either combine or go bust in the coming months. Q-Cells SE, once the world’s biggest cell maker, has said it’s open to takeovers.
“Two-thirds of the existing 66 polysilicon producers could fall victim to the shake-out that has just started,” the Macquarie analysts wrote in a note on Nov. 8. “The total number of Chinese polysilicon producers could fall to as little as four over the next three years, down from 35 known to us today.”
About 90 percent of China’s polysilicon plants comprising half the country’s production may suspend production because of the price slump, according to Xie Chen, an analyst at the China Nonferrous Metals Industrial Association, which acts as a conduit between industry and government.
Hemlock’s Growth
Hemlock -- named for a Michigan town where it’s based and owned jointly by Dow Corning Corp. and the Japanese companies Shin-Etsu Handotai Co. and Mitsubishi Materials Corp. -- will raise its capacity 28 percent when a plant in Tennessee opens next year. It’s already increased 89 percent since 2008.
Wacker of Munich, OCI Co. of South Korea, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. of China and Renewable Energy Corp. ASA of Norway round out the top five makers and together had capacity to make 131,000 tons of polysilicon last year, up from 50,000 tons in 2008, Bloomberg data shows.
“I haven’t seen any industry like this,” Woo-Hyun Lee, Seoul-based OCI’s chief operating officer, told a conference in Singapore on Nov. 2. “When the price drops so suddenly it hurts. Now there is very little room for fluctuation.”
Prices Plunge
Spot prices will fall into the $20s from about $33 today and are likely to stabilize at around $30 once a shake-out reduces oversupply after 2012, according to Sean McLoughlin, an industry analyst in London at HSBC Bank Plc, echoing a similar forecast by Macquarie. Leming of Ticonderoga says prices will reach $25 within three weeks and likely remain near that level for at least two years.
About 90 percent of supplies are sold under long-term contracts, many of which are under pressure to be renegotiated. Charges for contract cancellations can be more than 20 percent of their value, HSBC said.
Chemical companies such as Hemlock and Wacker make poly by baking raw silicon that’s derived from refined sand. It´s done in bell-shaped ovens containing silane gas, which then condenses over a period of days into rod-shaped chunks of 99.9999 percent pure polysilicon.
The rods are sliced into wafers using diamond-edged saws to make solar cells that are fastened onto panels to transform the sun’s rays into electricity.
Narrowing Margins
Wacker’s profit margin will shrink by 4 percentage points to 21 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, according to a Bloomberg survey of five analysts who looked at earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization compared to sales.
REC has developed a technique which works in a few hours and reduces the energy required by as much as 90 percent, making it the cheapest way of making solar-grade silicon, according to McLoughlin at HSBC. REC’s so-called fluidized bed reactor process grows beads of polysilicon from pressurized gas and tiny liquidized seeds of semi-purified material.
Polysilicon has been used as a semiconductor in computer microchips for decades. Supplies only became scarce from 2004, when European nations began introducing subsidies for clean energy. The price soared to $475 in March 2008 from about $30 in 2003. New capacity began to come on stream in 2008.
The famine turned to a glut when demand growth for panels slowed as solar-energy subsidies were cut. With plants taking at least two years to build, new factories are set to keep opening.
Expanding Capacity
Hemlock announced plans for its new factory in December 2008 when polysilicon was selling for $178 on the spot market. Wacker, the No. 2 producer, will double its capacity to about 60,000 tons by 2013, and LDK Solar Co. Ltd., the second-largest maker of wafers, will triple its poly capacity to 55,000 tons by the end of that year with a giant factory in Inner Mongolia.
The global supply of polysilicon is set to reach about 500,000 tons by 2014, Ewald Schindlbeck, head of Wacker’s polysilicon unit, said in an interview. That compares with 266,000 tons this year, according to Macquarie.
Even in an industry used to profit margins higher than 40 percent, the drop is hurting smaller producers. PV Crystalox Solar Plc last month cut production and fired workers at its poly ingot plant in Britain. It has costs of about $37 a kilo, according to McLoughlin.
Staudigl said that Wacker is negotiating individual agreements with clients and assessing issues such as their credit-worthiness. The company has contracts to sell almost all its planned production through 2015, spokesman Christof Bachmair said in a telephone interview.
Price Protection
While Wacker and the leading polysilicon producers may have fixed prices with clients for the next few years, that may offer them little protection should those prices push their clients into bankruptcy before they can make good on their commitments, said Gordon Johnson, an analyst at Axiom Capital Management Inc.
“Prices are going to go significantly lower,” he said in a Nov. 4 phone interview from his office in New York. “There will be certain people that go out of business.”
--Editors: Reed Landberg, Todd White
Solyndra and the Shakeout - Solar Today article. http://www.solartoday-digital.org/solartoday/20111112#pg12
U.S. solar manufacturers seek duties against China
Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:00pm EDT
* China wants to 'gut' U.S. market, manufacturers say
* U.S. arm of German company leads the drive.
* U.S. is a net importer of photovoltaic modules (Recasts with announcement)
By Doug Palmer
WASHINGTON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. solar manufacturers on Wednesday asked the Obama administration to slap duties of more than 100 percent on imports from China that they said were unfairly undercutting U.S. prices and destroying American jobs.
"Let us be clear, China has a plan for our market -- to gut it and own it," said Gordon Brinser, president of SolarWorld Industries Americas Inc at a news conference.
Trade relations with China have become a hot issue ahead of the 2012 U.S. presidential and congressional elections. The Senate last week passed a bill aimed at Beijing's currency practices although the bill faces an uphill battle in the House of Representatives to become law.
Next week, the House Ways and Means Committee plans a hearing to dive into a broad array of Chinese trade actions that are causing concern in the United States.
The U.S. solar industry has been hit hard by competition from China and other countries.
A coalition of seven companies led by SolarWorld Industries accused China of a long list of illegal subsidies and pricing practices to grab global market share.
Some trade experts have warned that the Obama administration needs to tread carefully since the United States also has programs to support the sector.
Last month, U.S. solar panel maker Solyndra filed for bankruptcy, burdened with $783 million in secured debt and squeezed by falling prices caused by an industry glut.
Its downfall has become a political embarrassment for the Obama administration, which had promoted the company as an example of how it planned to spur development in clean energy technology and provided a government guarantee on a $535 million loan Solyndra has said it may not repay in full.
STRONG DEMAND
The United States was a net exporter of solar energy products last year, due to strong demand from China, Germany and Japan for U.S.-made polysilicon and capital equipment used to make solar panels.
U.S. photovoltaic-related exports totaled $5.6 billion in 2010, compared with imports of $3.7 billion, according to a study by GTM Research prepared for the Solar Energy Industries Association, a U.S. trade group not involved in the case announced on Wednesday.
The same report showed the United States was a net importer of the modules that transform sunlight into electricity. It imported $2.4 billion of the product, including $1.4 billion from China and $480 million from Mexico.
U.S. exports of the photovoltaic modules totaled $1.2 billion in 2010, or half the level of imports.
SolarWorld is the U.S. arm of Germany's SolarWorld AG, which is one of Germany's largest solar products producers and has sought to expand into the growing U.S. market.
Last month, SolarWorld shut its Camarillo, California, production plant due to the steep drop in solar panel prices.
SolarWorld and other German solar companies have faced increasing competition in their home market in recent years as Chinese companies entered and drove down panel prices.
"In area after area, the Chinese do not play by the rules," said Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat who last month urged President Barack Obama to use U.S. trade law to restrict solar panel imports from China.
While industries such as steel have relied heavily on U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties to restrict foreign competition, the solar case appeared to be the first time the renewable energy sector has turned to U.S. trade remedy laws.
The Obama administration did successfully challenge a number of Chinese subsidies to support its wind power producers in a World Trade Organization case initiated by the United Steelworkers union. (Additional reporting by Doug Palmer; editing by Mohammad Zargham)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/usa-china-solar-idUSN1E79I0UH20111019
TSL
Here are some highlights of comments made by CEO Jifan Gao..
- achieved record shipments in the quarter despite solar subsidy reductions in Italy
- expects significant reduction in Q3 manufacturing costs
- seeing substantial improvement in order pipeline across Europe and N America
- encouraged by China’s national solar FIT program announced several weeks ago
- expanded warranty from 5 to 10 years
Looking ahead the company expects and record quarter in terms of shipments with Q3 shipments in the range of 480 – 520MW and for the full year the company reiterates previous shipments guidance of between 1.75 – 1.8GW.
Short Interest (Shares Short)
20,539,900
WEST sues CSIQ for patent infringement.
Lots of solars are up today, after months of bleeding. Did we bottom out yet?
Good Morning Solar Stocks Board,
NTCXF, or NXT.V, is rolling out their LPD process for applying the antireflective coating on silicon solar cells by the end of the year. NTCXF is not a panel manufacturer. NTCXF is 50% off it's 52 week high. The LPD process also has many applications, outside of solar, with huge end markets!
I think the future of solar energy capture will evolve using Natcore Technology's disruptive Liquid Phase Deposition process. Natcore has made great strides over the last 12 months. Once fully developed, this technology will double the output of solar panels, dramatically reduce their cost, and eliminate the need for solar subsidies.
The last link contains extensive information regarding Natcore Technology, it's impressive management team and scientists, and numerous short term catalysts. Please read more:
When is this F'ing bloodbath going to end?!?!?!?!?
And yet, Jinko is growing faster than every one of those on that list. That is a fairly bad list, IMO.
Top 10 fastest growing solar stocks,
http://www.cnanalyst.com/2011/09/top-10-fastest-growing-solar-stocks-hsol-csiq-spwra-yge-fslr-dq-sol-ldk-tsl-stp-sep-12-2011-.html
Interesting read:
http://www.solartoday-digital.org/solartoday/20110910/#pg38
Article mostly focuses on the business end of a huge Prologis / BofA project. This project should generate a lot of sales for several PV manufacturers.
China Benefits as U.S. Solar Industry Withers
Workers install solar panels at a power station in Hami in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China.
By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: September 1, 2011
HONG KONG — The bankruptcies of three American solar power companies in the last month, including Solyndra of California on Wednesday, have left China’s industry with a dominant sales position — almost three-fifths of the world’s production capacity — and rapidly declining costs.
Solar panel inspection at a factory in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province. Chinese companies' cost advantages overwhelm any lags in technology, analysts say.
Some American, Japanese and European solar companies still have a technological edge over Chinese rivals, but seldom a cost advantage, according to industry analysts.
Loans at very low rates from state-owned banks in Beijing, cheap or free land from local and provincial governments across China, huge economies of scale and other cost advantages have transformed China from a minor player in the solar power industry just a few years ago into the main producer of an increasingly competitive source of electricity.
“The top-tier Chinese firms are kind of the benchmark now,” said Shayle Kann, a managing director of solar power studies at GTM Research, a renewable energy market analysis firm based in Boston. Pricing of solar equipment is determined by the Chinese industry, he said, “and everyone else prices at a premium or discount to them.”
Besides Solyndra, the other two American manufacturers that filed for bankruptcy in August were Evergreen Solar, of Massachusetts, and SpectraWatt, a New York company. Another company, BP Solar, halted manufacturing at its complex in Frederick, Md., last spring.
Those bankruptcies and closings represent almost one-fifth of the solar panel manufacturing capacity in the United States, according to GTM Research.
Solyndra and Evergreen in particular suffered because they pursued unusual technologies whose competitiveness depended on their using less polysilicon, the main material for solar panels. That has become less important because polysilicon prices have tumbled more than 80 percent in the last three years as output has caught up with demand.
Analysts say that two American companies remain strongly placed. One is First Solar, the largest American manufacturer, which uses a different technology but has its biggest factory in Malaysia. The other, SunPower, is much smaller but is an industry leader in the efficiency with which its panels convert sunlight into electricity, so that they sell at a premium to Chinese panels.
But with Beijing heavily supporting its industry, the Chinese companies are forging ahead.
“There is no question that renewable energy companies in the United States feel pressure from China,” said David B. Sandalow, the assistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the United States Energy Department. “Many of them say it is cheap capital, not cheap labor, that gives Chinese companies the main competitive advantage.”
China’s three biggest solar power companies — Suntech Power, Yingli Green Energy and Trina Solar — have all in the last two weeks announced second-quarter sales increases of 33 to 63 percent from a year earlier.
Yingli and Trina were also profitable in the quarter. Suntech posted a loss, mostly because it broke a longstanding agreement to buy solar wafers — critical components in the manufacturing process — from a Singapore affiliate of MEMC Electronic Materials of Missouri. Suntech aims to make more wafers itself.
Shares in large and small Chinese solar power companies have mostly rallied in the last two weeks on the New York and Hong Kong stock markets, as investors have welcomed their strong quarterly results and the prospect of dwindling competition from Western rivals. Besides the bankruptcies in the United States, solar power companies in Germany, another big producer, have been laying off workers and retrenching.
The recent strength of Chinese stocks “truly reflects the low cost base of the Chinese solar manufacturers, and it is great to see their positioning, particularly relative to their American and European counterparts,” said K. K. Chan, the chief executive of Nature Elements Capital, a Chinese clean energy investment company based in Beijing.
He attributed the Chinese industry’s low costs not to inexpensive labor in China — high-technology solar panel manufacturing is not labor-intensive — but rather to free or subsidized land from local governments, extensive tax breaks and other state assistance.
Solar panel prices have plunged by 30 to 42 percent per kilowatt-hour in the last year as manufacturers have sharply increased capacity, particularly in China. Meanwhile, demand has been somewhat weak in the main markets in the United States and Europe.
Costs for electricity generated by utility-scale solar installations now approach costs for natural gas in some markets, like California’s, when subsidies of as much as 30 percent of the price are included. However, costs remain well above the cost of electricity from coal.
The United States and the European Union have tried to build demand for solar power by subsidizing the buyers of solar panels. But increasingly those subsidies are being used to buy solar panels from China.
The Chinese government has pursued a different policy course. Instead of subsidizing the purchase and use of solar power, China has focused on building the competitiveness of the country’s manufacturers. As a result, China exports 95 percent of the solar panels it produces. The United Steelworkers union filed a legal complaint a year ago with the United States government, asking the Obama administration to investigate China’s clean energy subsidies and other policies and to bring cases against them at the World Trade Organization. The organization’s rules strictly prohibit export subsidies, to prevent countries from buying market share in foreign markets for their producers.
The administration did challenge one Chinese government practice: giving subsidy grants of $6.7 million and $22.5 million to Chinese wind turbine manufacturers that agreed not to buy imported components.
China agreed in June to discontinue the practice, but by then it had already built the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturing industry over the last five years and now has highly competitive Chinese producers for almost every component.
Nkenge L. Harmon, a spokeswoman for the United States trade representative’s office, said on Thursday that the agency’s investigation continued into whether other Chinese green energy policies might violate W.T.O. rules.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/business/global/us-solar-company-bankruptcies-a-boon-for-china.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1
akns is now west- also look at sopw it is holding up better
Quantum Materials Corp, parent of
Solterra Renewable Technologies,
a thinfilm PV Quantum Dot solar cell
manufacturer announces launch of
new website www.qdotss.com and
releases PR
up-down;/OT
Hi!
CTX in homebuilders board; cant get a quote and cant draw a chart .. Can you fix it please?
GL
tia
mlkr
More suggestions for moderators. I know that you're volunteering your time, and appreciate the fact that you have created this board and put effort into maintaining it. So, not meaning to be critical, I have a few suggestions that might make this board more useful (and used).
Consider updating the table near the bottom of the board (solar stocks PE rankings), and make it the premier item on the board, not buried beneath all the charts. The long display of charts above this table takes a while to load and page through, and perhaps that info should be relegated to a sticky link or whatever. It's valuable info. It's just not something I want to wade through on a day-to-day basis to see the latest comments on solar stocks.
Cheers, and go solar!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Moderators -- can you add JKS to your table? This is a major chinese solar player, with big earnings, and low P/E.
Do a google news search on 'Alternative Energy Earnings Coming in Droves, Full Previews on All', It summarizes upcoming earning expectations for LDK, ABAT, RSOL, AONE, CLNE, CSIQ, JASO, HEV, ENER, SPWRA, VRNM. Cheers!
Solar Earnings Calander
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62501863
LDK Solar Lowers Revenue Forecast, Raises Guidance for Margins
LDK Solar Co., a Chinese solar company, lowered its forecast for first-quarter revenue and raised its guidance for gross margins.
LDK said today in a statment that it expects revenue of $745 million to $755 million, down from its previous guidance of $800 million to $850 million. Gross margins will range from 30 percent to 31 percent, compared to 27 percent to 29 percent. It did not give a reason.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/ldk-solar-lowers-revenue-forecast-raises-guidance-for-gross-margins.html?cmpid=yhoo
CdTe solar factory race...
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2011/04/the_cadmium_telluride_solar_factory_race.html
How many US solars have been successful? Also note, GE will be doing thin film, which is the less efficient, but less expensive solar panel. They will be in direct competition with First Solar.
Can't understand why GE, which is attempting to portray itself as a 'green' company, takes up the solar technology that is toxix (thin film made of i believe the 4th most toxic chemical).
I personally cannot see GE taking on the chinese solars, who are much, much farther ahead in technology and experience, let alone size. The only fighting chance i give GE is the bankroll they can put behind their project. But is it a money pit?
I am not so sure this is a good idea. Unless 'BUY AMERICAN' comes through for them.
Is it time to include GE as a solar company? I like the pure solar plays, but GE's plans to build the largest solar manufacturing plant in the US, which makes them a player. Sick sigma meets photovoltaics. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/07/business/energy-environment/07electric.html