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Silver $SLV - Looking for the 'Megaphone' Pattern to the 4Hr 11/EMA be a continuation plot
By: Sahara | March 12, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Looking for the 'Megaphone' Pattern to the 4Hr 11/EMA be a continuation plot.
May want to add the right side for a 'Daimond'...
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Silver Price Forecast: Uptrend Continuation or Retracement Ahead?
By: Bruce Powers | March 11, 2024
• Silver prices may correct after peaking at 24.64, with potential for short-term bearish signal.
Silver peaked at a high of 24.64 last week thereby completing a 10.6% advance from the February swing low of 22.28. The week ended with a potentially bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern. There is a reasonable expectation that last week’s high may lead to a correction of some degree. It could be quick and cover a few days or less, or longer than that. Confirmation of at least a short-term top has not occurred yet as silver trades inside day today, Monday. A short-term bearish signal will be given if silver triggers a daily reversal below Friday’s low of 24.18.
Advance Stalls off Last Week’s High
Last week resistance was seen around the prior swing high of 24.61 from December 22. That price area was noted previously as a possible target as it was clearly resistance in the past. The question now is whether silver continues to progress its uptrend, or it retraces first? Certainly, the chance for a pullback has increased following last week’s price action.
Nevertheless, a decisive rally above last week’s high of 24.64 may see silver hit a higher target before a retracement. The next higher target is around 24.81. That is where the rising ABCD pattern (magenta) completes a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the pattern. That is the third target from the pattern as each of the lower levels have already been exceeded to the upside.
Bigger Picture Bullish
In the bigger picture there is an initial higher target in silver up around 27.15. That is where a larger rising ABCD pattern completes (green). Given the recent impulse rally seen in silver this higher target looks reasonable. Therefore, traders will be watching for bullish reversal off retracement lows during weakness. A drop below last Friday’s low of 24.17 will signal a pullback.
The 8-Day MA is at 23.83 followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 23.73. The last solid resistance level that was broken is down at 23.50 (B), right near the 50% retracement at 23.46. If a retracement does come before new trend highs these price levels are where support might be seen, that leads to a bullish reversal.
Finally, another mention about the monthly chart. A bullish reversal was triggered initially this month. The upside follow-through has indicated strong demand pointing to eventual higher prices.
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$Silver is headed higher into the next 30 week cycle high in early July. It may get to as high 30, though so far it has underperformed gold which isn't an encouraging sign. Keep in mind there's one more weekly cycle low between now and July so it's not going to be straight up.
By: CyclesFan | March 9, 2024
• $Silver is headed higher into the next 30 week cycle high in early July. It may get to as high 30, though so far it has underperformed gold which isn't an encouraging sign. Keep in mind there's one more weekly cycle low between now and July so it's not going to be straight up.
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Silver Continues to Power Higher
By: Christopher Lewis | March 8, 2024
• Silver had another strong week, as we are threatening the $24.50 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is ready to break higher, and therefore anytime it pulls back you have to be looking at it as a buying opportunity.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
You can see that Silver did rally rather significantly during the course of the trading week to test the $24.50 level. The $24.50 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying attention to as it has been a scenario of resistance multiple times, but if we can break above that level on a daily close, then I think we have a shot at the $26 level.
The $26 level, I think, is going to be a very hard ceiling to break. The size of the candlestick is very big and therefore I think it does suggest that you have an opportunity to see a follow through. But that doesn’t mean that it has to happen right away. And in fact, I think it’s probably going to be noisy over the next couple of weeks, but you still have to pay close attention to any value opportunities as an opportunity to get involved.
The $23.50 level I think will continue to be massive support right along with the 50-week EMA. In general, expect volatility and keep your position size reasonable, but we still look very much like a market that you need to be a buyer of, not a seller of. Keep in mind that this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, and therefore think we’ve got a situation where you need to be cautious with your position sizing, but ultimately you will see silver continue to rally overall as it has been so strong.
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Silver Continues to Find Buyers Regardless
By: Christopher Lewis | March 7, 2024
• Silver markets pulled back initially during the trading session on Thursday, only to turn around and show signs of life again as buyers continue to look for value.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday only to turn around and show buying pressure again. This is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, but ultimately, I think you also have to look at it through the prism of whether or not we can break above the $24.50 level. That’s an area that has been important multiple times, so pay close attention to it when we get there.
After all, the $24.50 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, as it previously has been significant resistance. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that this market takes off to the upside and then goes looking towards the $26 level, which consequently had been a significant swing high from longer-term charts.
I like the idea of buying dips. I certainly would prefer to find a value as opposed to chasing it. But having said that, we also have to look at this through the prism of a market that if we were to break down below the $23.50 level, then you have to worry about whether or not it can hang on to the gains. Anything below there will have to deal with the 50-day EMA as potential support but at the same time, we also have the 200 day EMA in that same neighborhood. So, I think that the downside is probably somewhat limited.
And at this point in time, I still look at this as a buy on the dip opportunity just waiting to happen. Nonetheless, I also recognize that silver is highly sensitive to interest rates in America. And of course, we have the jobs number on Friday, which will almost certainly knock those around. With that being said, I am bullish, but I still would prefer to find some type of value on a dip to take advantage of.
[url]https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/silver-price-forecast-silver-continues-to-find-buyers-regardless-1414740[/tag] »»»
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Silver $SLV - 'Cup' Update.
By: Sahara | March 7, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - 'Cup' Update.
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Silver Price Forecast: Targets Set for Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | March 4, 2024
• Silver's monthly bullish breakout and multiple bullish signals on different time frames suggest a potential surge, with targets set around 27.14, signaling a possible shift in its trajectory.
A monthly bullish breakout triggered in silver today as it rallied to a high of 23.93 thereby completing a 50% retracement of the most recent correction. It is on track to confirm the breakout with a close above the monthly high at 2.50. Moreover, today’s advance triggered a breakout of the 200-Day MA, which is currently at 23.27.
It happens to coincide with a break above a trendline. Further, on the weekly chart, a bullish hammer candlestick pattern triggered today. In other words, there are bullish signals on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts. That makes today’s advance potentially significant and increases the chance for upside continuation. When all time frames start saying the same thing, it is time to pay extra attention.
Next Higher Target Zone
Following a rally above today’s high of 23.90 silver will have a chance to reach a target zone from 24.39 to 24.61. That zone completes a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at the lower price level and matches the December 22 swing high at the higher level. Nevertheless, given today’s bullish signs, it would not be surprising to see silver bust through that price zone.
Smaller ABCD Pattern Targets 24.27
Also, a large rising ABCD pattern (green) is drawn on the chart with an eventual target around 27.14. Given today’s price action a second and smaller rising ABCD pattern (orange) has been added. You can see that the first target of 23.84 was reached today. The second target, which is a 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the pattern, is at 24.27. Higher still is the third target from the pattern at 24.81. That higher target is extending the CD leg of the rally by 161.8% of the AB portion of the advance.
Bullish Signals on Multiple Time Frames
This could be the beginning of a shift in silver and what the bulls have been waiting for over many months. Silver has the potential to eventually bust through the high of the past several years. There are a series of higher price levels to be aware of, each was a key swing high that was followed by a correction. The decline off the most recent swing high of 25.91 showed the least degree of correction after it was hit. Further up are 26.14 and 26.95. Once there is a daily close above 25.91, siler should be ready to tackle these higher price levels.
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Update. Getting a turn from where we wanted to see one
By: Sahara | March 4, 2024
• $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Update.
Getting a turn from where we wanted to see one.
And we did get the Wkly 'Hammer' at that Spprt-Band I was asking for, although not before we put in few indecision candles first...
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Silver Continues to Look Bullish Overall
By: Christopher Lewis | March 4, 2024
• The silver market was extraordinarily bullish after initially gapping lower to kick off the Monday session, only to turn around and recapture the highs from the Friday session rather early.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
I am taking a look at the silver market and as you can see, we initially gapped quite a bit lower to kick off the trading session on Monday, but then just turned around to show signs of life and the market just took off at this point we continue to consolidate between the $22 level on the bottom and the $23.50 level on the top. Even though we have had such a massive move higher, I don’t necessarily think that anything has changed.
With this setup being the way it is, I am paying special attention to the $23.50 level, which is an area that I think if we were to break above it, it’s really going to take on to the $24.50 level. That being said, I am a bit cautious at this point about getting overly aggressive because I’ve seen this market fight right around here before and it always seems to want to pull back, but it does offer nice value. In that scenario, it’s just simply buy on the dip until we finally take off.
Once we do, the $24.50 level then becomes targeted. And after that, we have to move to the $26 level. The $22 level underneath is going to be a hard floor, but it has been broken recently, at least in the last year or so, slightly. It was a short-term move. In that environment, I think you get really aggressive buyers.
Either way, I do not want to short silver, and I think silver, right along with gold, should perform fairly well this year. Keep in mind that the silver market continues to see a lot of volatility, but it also will pay close attention to the idea of interest rates rising or falling, industrial demand, and of course geopolitical issues that could drive silver higher as it is considered to be a precious metal as well as an industrial one.
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Is Silver a Sleeping Giant?
By: Barchart | March 3, 2024
It has been a while since I have written about silver because there has been little to report. In my December 12, 2023, Barchart article on silver, I highlighted why 2024 could be a “silver bonanza.”
The active month COMEX silver futures contract was trading at $23.04 on December 12. In early March 2024, the price was slightly lower. I remain bullish on silver’s prospects, but the price action has been nothing short of comatose.
A marginal 2023 gain
While nearby COMEX gold futures gained 13.45% in 2023, silver futures only managed a 0.19% rise. The continuous contract gold futures closed last year at $2,071.80 on December 29, 2023, and were 0.73% higher at the $2,086.90 level on March 1. Silver futures closed last year at $23.583 per ounce and were 1.84% lower on March 1 at $23.15 per ounce.
Silver underperformed gold in 2023 and lags the leading precious metal in 2024.
The silver-gold ratio provides few clues
In the December 12, 2023, Barchart article, the silver-gold ratio was just below 87:1.
On March 1, 2024, the ratio ({GCJ24}/{SIK24}) edged higher to just above 90 ounces of silver value in each ounce of gold value. Silver’s underperformance compared to gold pushed the ratio marginally higher and remained above the average since the 1970s. While the ratio has edged higher, it provides no clues as to the path of least resistance of silver prices, which remain in a tight trading range...
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Silver is an undervalued asset based on gold’s price performance. If gold continues to rally and silver can break above technical resistance at the $26 per ounce level, the buying herd could push metal and mining share prices substantially higher. Meanwhile, as the trading range narrows, silver’s potential means the precious metal could be a sleeping giant at the current price level.
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Silver $SLV - 'Bowl' Update.
By: Sahara | March 1, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - 'Bowl' Update.
We held the pattern parameters for Feb with a 'Doji' Candle atop the 10/50 Mnth/SMA's to boot.
Still need a B/Out of the Innr 'Handle'...
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Silver Continues to Build Momentum to The Outside
By: Christopher Lewis | February 29, 2024
• Silver has rallied rather significantly after the PCE numbers came in as anticipated in the United States, confirming the overall consolidation area that we have been in for some time.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
You can see that we did pull back just a bit only to turn around and show signs of life. The PCE numbers coming out of the United States were essentially where they needed to be, and traders now look at this through the prism of more of the same. And if that’s going to be the case, short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities with the 50-day EMA is an area that I think could cause some issues. And then after that, we could go looking to the 200 day EMA. After that, we then have the $23.50 level as a potential target. Short term pullbacks continue to see the $22 level as potentially important for support. And therefore, I do think there’s a hard floor in this market.
We have been consolidating quite a bit in this general area. And with that being the case, none of this is a huge surprise. I actually got long the day before on a break above the top of that hammer. You can see it worked out quite well. That being said, I do think eventually we could take out 23 and a half. And if we do, then 24 and a half could be a target. Longer term, I believe that we continue to bounce around between $22 on the bottom and $26 on the top. Keep in mind that interest rates will continue to be a major influence on what happens with silver, not to mention industrial demand and basically central bank policy.
There’s also geopolitical concerns and silver can be somewhat of a store of wealth, so keep that in mind as well. Ultimately, there’s no real argument to be shorting silver, although you should keep in mind that silver does tend to be very range bound over the longer term, and at this point in time it would be quite a feat to see the silver market break above the previously mentioned $26 ceiling in the market. In that environment, we would probably see all kinds of financial chaos as precious metals would swamp the market with momentum.
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Silver $SLV - Update. Still within the Bull 'Flag'. Yet pressuring the Bull 'Wedge' B/Out-Line & Apex of the 'Coil'
By: Sahara | February 27, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Update.
Still within the Bull 'Flag'. Yet pressuring the Bull 'Wedge' B/Out-Line & Apex of the 'Coil'. Failure to do an about turn will target $22. Range-Spprt...
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Silver Price Forecast: Falls to Test Support at 61.8% Fibonacci Level
By: Bruce Powers | February 26, 2024
• February will likely end with an inside month for silver unless it breaks below 21.93, indicating consolidation before potential breakout to higher levels.
Silver pulled back to test support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on Monday with the day’s low of 22.45. The 61.8% price level is 22.53. At the time of this writing, silver continues to trade near the 22.52 price zone. A daily close above the 61.8% retracement level at 22.52 will be a stronger indication than a close below that level.
Stuck in an Eight Week Price Range
Silver has been trading in a price zone for the past eight weeks with a high of 23.53 and a low of 21.93. It needs to get out of that range before we likely see volatility and upside momentum return. That continues to look like the most likely resolution to the consolidation current consolidation/correction phase. The first sign of strength will be seen in a rally above today’s high of 22.95, followed by a rally above the top of the current range at 23.53.
Advance Above 23.53 Needed
An advance above the 23.53 high will put silver back above a critical price area represented by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 23.45 and the 50-Week MA (not shown) at 23.57. In addition, it will then also be above the downtrend line that has marked resistance of the correction since the May 1 swing high of 26.14. The 50-Week line is being watched as the market has tested it as a resistance area a few times recently.
Once a daily close above 23.53 confirms strength, silver should be ready to confront previous higher price levels starting with the 61.8% retracement at 24.39 and a prior swing high at 24.61. Daily bullish signals start with a rally above today’s high of 22.95, then Friday’s high of 23.00.
Inside Month Likely for February
This week will complete the month of February with an inside month unless there is a drop by Thursday that puts silver below last month’s low of 21.93. An inside month shows consolidation in that time frame and a breakout of the range should lead to a continuation. This month’s high is 23.50 and the low is 21.93.
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Silver Continues to Bounce Around a Range
By: Christopher Lewis | February 23, 2024
Silver was rather quiet during the trading session on Friday, as we are sitting in the middle of the range that we have been in for some time. Because of this, I think you have a situation where silver is somewhat neutral in the short term, but we have very clear areas to be trading from.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver markets have shown themselves to be somewhat nonchalant in their trading during the session on Friday, as we are basically just in the middle of the consolidation area between the $22 level and the $23.50 level. This is a market that I think will continue to do all of the usual behaviors, such as reacting to interest rates, the US dollar, geopolitical concerns, and of course, industrial demand.
With that being the case, it’s essentially a coin flip as to whether or not we touch the top or the bottom of the consolidation area right now. But in the longer term, I do think that the $22 level continues to be a major support level. The $23.50 level above being broken would be extraordinarily bullish and I think it opens up a move to the $24.50 level after that, which is an area we’ve seen action at in the past. Nonetheless, this is a market that I’m waiting to get to one of the extremes to make a trade.
I don’t necessarily want to short silver. I believe that silver is something that will eventually try to get back to the $26 level, especially if central banks around the world are going to continue to cut rates this year, which by all counts, looks to be the case. So, with that being said, I like the idea of taking advantage of cheap silver when it occurs. If we break down below the $22 level, we could then go looking to the $21 level, which was where we broke down in September.
But right now, I think we’re more likely than not to continue to see a buy on the dip mentality. So that’s how I am approaching this market. If we break above the $23.50 level, I’ll probably add to any existing position that I have. That $26 level above, though, I think is going to be a very difficult barrier to break.
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Silver Continues to Show Signs of Strength
By: Christopher Lewis | February 20, 2024
• The silver markets continue to look bullish at this point, as we have a few major levels making themselves known as we continue to see buyers on dips.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
You can see that we have bounced a bit to save the 50 day EMA as support and as I record this, we are currently testing the 200 day EMA, which of course will capture a lot of attention. Above, we have a significant barrier in the form of $23.50, that is followed by $24.50 and then eventually $26. When you look at the action of silver over the last several years, the area between $22 and $26 has been an area of intense focus for the market. We have broken out of this area a couple of times, but in general, we’ve stayed in this general vicinity.
I think this is a market that continues to be “buy on the dip” and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that central banks around the world will be loosening monetary policy this year. Furthermore, you have to pay close attention to the US dollar, which has fallen a bit during the trading session so that does help silver as well. If we can break above the $23.50 level, then I think you’ll see people adding to positions, trying to push it to that crucial $24.50 level.
Short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities, and the $22 level underneath, I think, is your hard floor in the market. You can even make out over the last, say, six weeks or so that we have formed a bit of a W pattern, which in and of itself will attract a lot of attention as it is a widely followed technical pattern. You should also pay attention to the 10-year yield in America. If it starts to drop, that will hold silver, and of course, gold which silver quite often will follow in and of itself. However, never forget that there is the industrial demand part of the equation as well, so silver can be a bit more volatile than gold as well at times because of this.
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Silver Price Forecast: Eyeing Eight-Week Highs
By: Bruce Powers | February 19, 2024
• Silver is testing a resistance zone, aiming for a breakout that could lead to higher prices. Last week completed a third test of support around the 21.93 price zone.
Silver pushes up against resistance zone that once broken could propel prices higher. Last week seems to have completed a third test of support round the 21.93 price zone that was first tested on January 22. The subsequent rally off last week’s low of 21.93 busted through 23.33 resistance last week before closing above the level on Friday. Today, Monday, silver is set to complete as an inside day consolidation pattern.
Key Breakout Pivot at 23.53
The top of the developing bottoming structure is at 23.53, a seven-week high. A decisive rally above 23.53 triggers a bullish reversal from the bottoming pattern and it is confirmed on a daily close above there. Moreover, a double bottom pattern broke out last Friday on a rally above 23.33. A daily close above 23.53 confirms strength and increases the chance for a continuation higher. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement was completed last week at 23.45. Other Fibonacci retracement levels are shown on chart but the next key target following a bottom breakout would be 24.61, the interim swing high from December 22 (C).
Strong Close Last Week
It is notable that last week ended with the highest weekly closing price in seven weeks. This is a sign of strength that is further confirmed on a rally above 23.53. The higher 23.53 price is being used as a level rather than the 23.33 double bottom breakout line as it is so close and provides an extra indication of strength. If there is follow-through to Friday’s advance silver will have a chance of testing prior highs from the past in a range from 25.91 to 26.14.
Initial Key Upside Target at 27.15
Further, last week’s low may complete a bottom that leads to a solid rally. The previous four rallies were from around 20% to 31%. If we assume that the current developing rally hits that middle of that range, silver could eventually see prices of 27.37. An interim target would be at the completion of a smaller and more immediate rising ABCD pattern at 27.15. Since it is the near-term pattern there is a good chance of it being reached relative to a larger pattern target.
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Silver Hanging on to Bottom of Range
By: Christopher Lewis | February 16, 2024
• The silver market has initially fallen during the trading week to reach down to the crucial 200-Week EMA and the $22 level, an area that has been visited multiple times in the past.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver initially fell during the trading week to reach down to the $22 level, only to turn around and bounce significantly. That being said, the market is currently restrained by the 50-week EMA, so I think that does come into the picture, but given enough time, I don’t see why we don’t break above there.
When you look at the longer term picture, we are in the bottom part of the chart that we had been bouncing around multiple times over the last several years. We’re just simply at the bottom of the range of normalcy. Because of this, I think there are plenty of value hunters out there willing to get involved. And therefore, if we can break above this 50 week EMA, I think the next target will be the $24.50 level, and then eventually the $26 level.
If we were to break down below the $22 level, then right around $21, we see a lot of technical support and resistance, thereby leading to a lot of market memory. And I think that’s about as far as we drop. Keep in mind that silver is highly sensitive to interest rates, it’s highly sensitive to the value of the US dollar, and of course, unlike gold, it’s a lot more of an industrial metal. A lot of green technology uses silver, so that’s something to keep in the back of your mind as well.
I like the idea of buying dips, but if you’re a longer term swing trader, this week and the previous couple of weeks have been a sign that perhaps we could be bouncing given enough time and enough patience.
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Silver $SLV - 'Bowl' (Upright Log Scale)...
By: Sahara | February 15, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - 'Bowl' (Upright Log Scale)...
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Waiting for silver to take off is like waiting form the Browns to win the super bowl
Silver Continues to See Noisy Support
By: Christopher Lewis | February 13, 2024
• Silver continues to see a lot of volatility at this point, with the Tuesday session being bullish as well. The silver market doesn’t look ready to break out of the well-defined range that we have been in for some time.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to consolidate overall. What I do see is that the silver market looks as if it is trying to form a massive W shaped pattern, suggesting that the $22 level will continue to be massive support. This is an area that has been important several times in the past, and I think will continue to attract a lot of attention from traders around the world.
Just above, we have the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA as well. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we could run into a little bit of trouble. However, if we break above the $23.50 level, then the market could go another $1 above to reach the $24.50 level, and then perhaps even the $26 level.
Underneath, if we were to break down below the $22 level, it does open up a move to the $21 level, an area that we did visit in September of 2023. However, I do think that the $22 level is more or less the bottom of the larger consolidation area that we will be in, and therefore, you have to look at it through that prism. This market will continue to be rangebound this year, as we often see in silver.
I don’t have any interest in shorting silver. I think that any pullback at this point in time, more likely than not, will represent some type of value. And you should keep in mind that the silver market is highly influenced by interest rates, which going lower does help lift silver. But at the same time, it’s also a play on the industrial demand and perhaps even a little bit of a safety play, not as much as gold, but some people will run to silver to protect their wealth in uncertain times. And let’s face it, we have a lot of uncertainty when it comes to geopolitical events right now.
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Silver $SLV - Had another rebuttal form the Uppr-Band of the Intraday 'Coil'
By: Sahara | February 13, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Had another rebuttal form the Uppr-Band of the Intraday 'Coil'.
If it fails to recover it will likely do as detailed prior...
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Silver Price Forecast: Remains Stuck Within Consolidation Range
By: Bruce Powers | February 12, 2024
• Silver faces resistance at 23.08, navigating within a consolidation range. Breakout or breakdown imminent pending confirmation above or below key levels.
Silver continued to rise off the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement that begun last Thursday, hitting a high of 23.08 before encountering resistance. Resistance was seen following a successful test of resistance at the top downtrend line. Subsequently, sellers took control, driving the price back down to the lower third of the day’s price range, which is where it remains. A weak close on Monday puts silver at risk of testing lower support levels again.
Contained Within Price Range of 23.33 to 22.14
Nevertheless, silver is contained within a range from around 23.33 to 22.14. It needs to get out of that range to begin to escape from consolidation. Until then, trading in silver will likely continue to be relatively choppy.
Price Range Tightening Within Symmetrical Triangle
A decline below last week’s low of 22.14 puts the 21.94 swing low at risk of being tested as support again. The 21.94 price level begins a support zone that goes down to 21.80. That range also includes the uptrend line. Notice that together the uptrend line and downtrend line create a symmetrical triangle type pattern in silver. The lines mark an important boundary for the consolidation phase. Therefore, a decisive breakout through one of the boundary lines, either up or down, designates initial signs for a breakout of consolidation.
Weekly Bullish Hammer Triggered
Regardless of Monday’s intraday weakness after reaching the day’s high of 23.08, a weekly bullish signal was generated on today’s upside breakout. Friday ended as a weekly bullish hammer candlestick pattern, and it triggered today. A daily close is next needed above last week’s high of 22.72 to confirm strength of the breakout. Currently, it is not clear if silver will be able to close above that price level. If it does, the chance remains for silver to further test resistance and follow through on the weekly bullish breakout. However, a weak close, below 22.72, puts Monday’s advance at risk of failure.
A failure of the bullish advance and a bearish signal would be indicated on a decline below Monday’s low of 2.52. That would increase the chance that silver again tests last week’s support of 22.14 and possibly drops further.
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$SILVER $SLV - Update. Squeezed betwixt the Mthly Grey/MA & Uppr Handle...
By: Sahara | February 12, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Update.
Squeezed betwixt the Mthly Grey/MA & Uppr Handle...
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Silver Market Update - VULNERABLE SHORT-TERM BUT LONG-TERM OUTLOOK EXCELLENT...
By: Clive Maund | February 6, 2024
As usual many of the observations regarding gold set out in the parallel Gold Market update apply equally to silver, so they will not be repeated here.
On silver’s 6-month chart probably the most important point to note is that, following gold’s failed attempt to break above the key $2100 level early in December, silver has dropped away whereas gold has broadly moved sideways marking out a potential top area. This shows relative weakness on the part of silver and on the chart we can see that it is already dropping away again beneath the trendline shown with its moving averages rolling over into bearish alignment. So if gold breaks down from its Head-and Shoulders top pattern as expected, then silver is likely to drop at least to the next significant support level in roughly the $20 - $21 area.
The longer-term 2-year chart gives us more perspective and on it we see that silver has essentially been stuck in a trading range for over a year – since late 2022. If gold breaks down from the Head-and-Shoulders top that we looked at in the Gold Market update and drops away, then we can expect silver to drop at the same time at least to the support level in the $21 area.
The long-term outlook for gold and especially silver remains most favorable and the current retreat by both metals appears to because the markets believe that the US is gaining the upper hand geopolitically through its proxy war against Russia in the Ukraine and now against Iran and the BRICS in the Mid-East and in so doing maintaining the dominance of the dollar. However, this does not alter the extremely negative underlying trends resulting from the hopeless and terminal corruption that plagues the entire US economy and system manifesting in an exponential explosion in money creation that has now gone vertical, a doddering joke of a President who makes no decisions and signs whatever is pushed in front of him and an explosion in unchecked immigration that will eventually lead to social breakdown. In other words, the country is destroying itself. All of these factors will eventually lead to the complete collapse of the dollar and gold and silver exploding higher. There are a lot of countries that “have a score to settle” with the US that is now increasingly isolated as a result of its supporting the genocide of the Palestinians, and they have only to bide their time until the US collapses in on itself and is no longer able to afford its vast network of military bases and overseas campaigns, whereupon Israel will find itself isolated and in an even worse position than the Palestinians and they can expect little sympathy after what they have done. After 76 years of “getting away with it” this is the point at which they will finally learn the meaning of the word “karma”.
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Silver Continues to Find Buyers at Lows
By: Christopher Lewis | February 9, 2024
• Silver continues to look bullish as we have shown quite a bit of support underneath near the $22 level.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Looking at the silver chart, you can see that we fell down to the $22 level and the $200 a week EMA, only to turn around and show signs of life again. Ultimately, this is a market that ended up forming a bit of a hammer, and that does suggest that perhaps we are going to bounce towards that 50 week EMA above. All things being equal, this is a situation where market participants are simply trying to build up some type of basing pattern and show its signs of life. If we can take out the highs of the previous week, then I believe that silver could take off to the upside, going towards the $24 level, and possibly even as high as $24.50, finally opening up the door to $26.
Looking forward, you will have to pay attention to industrial demand, interest rates, and of course geopolitical concerns. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility, but that’s nothing new for silver as it is extraordinarily erratic at times. Keep in mind that silver is at the bottom of a huge range, so therefore it’s likely that the market will continue to be noisy but supported at this point in time. If we were to break down below the $22 level, then the next major support level is closer to the $21 level. In general, this is a market that I think is ready to bounce but will have to wait and see how that plays out in this region, as it is so important from a longer-term perspective looking back several years.
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Silver Price Forecast: Decline Following Last Week’s Attempt to Break Above Trendline
By: Bruce Powers | February 5, 2024
• Silver faces challenges, testing resistance at 23.33 while short-term weakness hints at potential downside, with crucial support levels at risk and lower targets around 21.94.
Silver spent much of last week testing resistance around the downtrend line that is a top declining trend channel line. Resistance was seen at a swing high of 23.33. That price level is a little below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 23.45. It begins a potential resistance zone going up to a recent interim swing high at 23.53. Within the zone is the 200-Day MA, is now at 23.44. However, buyers could not maintain control long enough to test the 38.2% retracement zone. This reflects underlying short-term weakness that may further play out.
Weakness Points to 21.94 Support Zone
On Monday, silver dropped below last week’s low of 22.40 and it is on track to close below that price level. This puts the lower support level at risk of being tested again. The support range goes from around 21.94 to 21.80. In addition to Fibonacci levels, that price range also includes an important trend line. It is a potentially significant price zone that has been tested successfully as support recently and it includes two swing lows as well as Fibonacci levels.
Last Week’s Bearish Lower High Leads to Weakness This Week
Last week was the second rally recently that got stuck around resistance of the downtrend line. It generated a lower swing low from the prior rally attempt on January 12, which reflects weakness. Therefore, it could very well lead to a test of the 21.94 price zone. As well, support could be busted to the downside, leading to a test of lower support levels by silver. A drop below 21.80 points to lower prices for silver. Following such a decline, the first target zone is 21.21. That’s where a falling ABCD pattern completes a standard pattern target. It is followed by a prior swing low at 20.69.
Upside Possible If Silver Gets Above Last Week’s 23.33 High
On the upside, a rally above last week’s high of 23.33 is needed for a sign of strength that may be sustainable. Subsequently, a daily close above that high will confirm the breakout. Minor resistance may then be seen again around the 23.53 swing high, however, momentum should be strong enough to break through. At that point silver should be back above the 200-Day MA and heading towards the 50% retracement at 23.92. A rally back above the 200-Day line should be followed by further signs of a strengthening rising trend.
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$Silver $SLV - Poised With Dbl Bull Plots within the Handle of the Cup (Bull 'Flag' & 'Inv H&S')...
By: Sahara | February 2, 2024
• $SILVER $SLV - Poised
With Dbl Bull Plots within the Handle of the Cup (Bull 'Flag' & 'Inv H&S')...
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Bullish Signals: Silver Breaks Resistance, Eyes Sustained Uptrend
By: Bruce Powers | January 30, 2024
• Silver’s robust breakout, breaching key levels, sets the stage for a potential sustained rally. A weekly bullish hammer adds conviction to the bullish outlook, signaling a promising uptrend.
Silver is starting the week in a strong position, breaking out of Fridays inside day and rallying above both the downtrend line and 20-Day MA (purple). It is on track to close strong, near the highs of the day, above the lines, and above last week’s high of 23.05. Today’s high of 23.22 stalled right at resistance marked by a second downtrend line. This one starts from the May 2023 peak. If today closes above last week’s high today, a bullish reversal on the weekly chart is confirmed.
Could be Start of Sustained Rally in Silver
This could be the start of a sustained rally in silver, but it needs to continue to show signs of strength. That will next happen on a daily close above the downtrend line around Monday’s high. Greater significance will be attributed to a daily close above the most recent swing high at 23.53 as it is part of the downtrend price structure of lower swing highs.
Once there is a daily close above that price level a clearer confirmation for a bullish reversal from the correction will be indicated. The 50-Day MA (orange) is nearby that swing high at 23.59. Therefore, a daily close above the 50-Day line is going to provide a stronger signal than a close below it. Following the 23.53 swing high is the next higher swing high (C) target at 24.61.
Weekly Bullish Breakout Triggers
Monday’s rally triggered a bullish breakout on silver’s weekly chart as last week’s candlestick pattern was a bullish hammer. This provides an additional clue supportive of the bullish thesis. The high price last week was 23.025. It can be watched to help gauge strength during a pullback. A daily close below it is a short-term sign of weakness, while a close above is supportive of a continuation higher.
Once 24.60 is Exceeded, Silver is Cleared for Takeoff
If the 24.60 swing high is exceeded, the odds favor a continuation higher to test recent highs in a range from around 25.41 to 26.22. There have been at least five prior rallies in silver since November 2021 where silver encountered resistance in that price zone that led to a bearish correction. This time may be different given. Once simple clue is that the recent swing low at 21.93 was higher than the previous swing low from early-October.
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Silver Show Signs of Stability
By: Christopher Lewis | January 26, 2024
• The silver market has shown a little bit of stability during the course of the week, but at this point in time it looks like we are going to continue to see a lot of noise overall.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
As you can see, the silver market did fall significantly during the course of the trading week to reach down to the $22 level before bouncing and the 200 week EMA sits just above there as well. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where we are just simply defending the bottom of what I think is going to be the range for the year. The $22 level being the bottom, and the $26 level being the top. That’s pretty much how we traded this past year and also in 2021. In other words, it’s an area that the market is very comfortable being in, so therefore I think you need to keep that in the back of your mind.
So, it does make a certain amount of sense. I think gold could be a positive influence on silver, but you also have to keep in mind that silver is an industrial metal as well. And the silver market will of course move based on interest rates and the US dollar as there is a negative correlation between those two markets and silver.
At this point though, I think the simplest way to look at this market is just that it is simply at the bottom of its overall range. I have to add that we formed a hammer, which is a technically strong signal that we are going to bounce but it doesn’t mean that it’s going to be easy or that you bet half of your account on the trade. But clearly, it looks like we got a little oversold and now we are correcting.
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Silver Continues to Look Supported
By: Christopher Lewis | January 25, 2024
• The silver market rallied again during the day on Thursday as we are still near the bottom of the overall consolidation area that should define this market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday. And it looks to me like we are going to continue to see a lot of upward trajectory due to the fact that if for no other reason, we are near the bottom of the larger consolidation area. In other words, silver looks a bit “cheap” at this point in time.
For example, the $22 level underneath is a major support level, while the $26 level above is a major resistance barrier. At this point in time, I do think that short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunity. This is a market as long as we stay above the $22 level, should be thought of as one that is a value play.
Silver will of course be very sensitive to interest rates in the United States and other places as well. And it could be sniffing out the idea that perhaps central banks will have to start cutting rates. But it’s also very sensitive to the US dollar, as it has a negative correlation to both of those. So, pay attention to 10-year yields, the US dollar, and you can get a general idea of where silver will go.
There’s also industrial demand that comes into the picture as silver is much more industrial than gold. So, although it does tend to follow the same trajectory over time, and of course it is considered to be a precious metal, it is also considered to be an industrial metal as well. And that, of course, has its own influence. Ultimately, I just think that we are cheap when you look at the overall range. So, a pullback here should offer a nice buying opportunity.
If we were to break down below the crucial $22 support level, then it opens up a move down to the $21 level, which of course is support as well, as it was a swing low when we got that slight breakout only to return back into the same consolidation area we are in presently. Ultimately, I think it is more or less a situation where it is “steady as she goes.”
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Silver Continues to Rally
By: Christopher Lewis | January 24, 2024
• Silver had a strong session on Wednesday, as we have broken well above the $22.50 level, showing a nice rally from the $22 support region underneath.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
You can see silver rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Wednesday. At this point, it looks like $22 is going to continue to offer significant support, and the way we are behaving now suggests that silver continues to go higher. The next target will be the 200-day EMA, which is near the $23.20 level and then after that, we have some structural resistance near the $23.50 level. With that being the case, we could get a little bit of a pushback here, but I think the dip will end up being a buying opportunity.
It’ll be interesting to see whether or not we can break above the $23.50 level because it does open up the possibility of another move to the $24.50 level. The $24.50 level being broken then opens up a move to the $26 level, which is the top of the overall longer-term consolidation phase that I see probably being a majority of what we do this year.
On the downside, if we were to turn around and break down below the $22 level, then we could get a move down to the $21 level, but that seems less and less likely at this point. I think we’ve got a situation here where market participants will continue to buy dips, but you also need to keep an eye on interest rates because there is a negative correlation between interest rates and silver. Furthermore, there is a negative correlation between silver and the US dollar.
In general, I do think this bodes well for the short term. Whether or not silver takes off for a longer term buying hold trade, we’ll have to wait and see. But there’s also the other impact of economic and industrial demand for silver. Keep in mind, it is an industrial metal as well. So that is something that must not be ignored. If you are going to play this market, keep in mind silver is very volatile. So, you want to keep your position size at least reasonable as silver can be quite volatile and cause major damage to your portfolio if you are not careful.
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Bear of the Day: First Majestic Silver (AG)
By: Zacks Investment Research | January 23, 2024
Company Overview
Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock First Majestic Silver (AG) is a Canadian-based mining company focused on exploring, developing, and producing silver and other precious metals. The company operates predominately in Mexico and owns several silver mines, including the San Dimas, Santa Elena, and La Encantada silver mines. First Majestic Silver is known for its focus on silver production, and the company plays an important role in the global silver mining industry. The company’s operations involve extracting and processing silver ore to produce silver bullion, which contributes to meeting the demand for silver in various industrial and investment applications.
A Deflationary Environment is a Potential Headwind for Stores of Value
In 2022, inflation hit 40-year highs. However, since the headline-grabbing number was released in 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve has gone on an interest rate hiking crusade and has broken the back of inflation. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation rate has slowed from near-double-digits to a little more than 3% annually. In addition, rent prices (an important proxy of inflation) dropped by a robust 8.8% in the most recent quarter – another sign inflation is moving in the right direction.
Image Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson Research
Where does silver come in? Silver miner stocks may underperform in a deflationary environment because investors often see the commodity as a hedge against inflation. Furthermore, deflationary pressures may lower commodity prices overall, affecting the profitability of silver mining operations.
Relative Weakness and Choppy Price Action Equate to Opportunity Cost
The old Wall Street adage says,“The trend is your friend.” Unfortunately for AG investors,the stock has been trendless for years and has exhibited relative weakness over the past three years. AG is down a painful 65% over the past three years, while the S&P 500 Index is up 24.7%. In other words, recent history tells us that investors are achieving higher returns with less risk by simply investing in a basket of diverse industries.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Wall Street is Bearish
Years of proprietary research at Zacks tells us that earnings estimates are one of the best ways to predict future stock prices. In the past 90 days, Wall Street has revised AG consensus estimates lower. To make matters worse, AG has a poor EPS surprise track record – the company has missed Zacks Consensus Estimates in 10 of the past 11 quarters (the opposite of what investors want to see.)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
A deflationary environment poses a headwind for silver miner stocks such as Zacks #5 (Strong Sell) stock First Majestic Silver. With a recent history of relative weakness, choppy price action, and a bearish sentiment on Wall Street, AG investors may need to carefully assess the risks and consider the impact of deflationary pressures on the profitability of silver mining operations.
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Silver Continues to Test Major Support
By: Christopher Lewis | January 23, 2024
• Silver bounced a bit from a major support region during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to look at the $22 level as crucial.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market rallied a bit during the trading session, and as a result, it certainly looks like it is trying to do everything it can to hang on to the $22 level. The $22 level is an area that’s been massively support multiple times and therefore, I think it continues to attract a certain amount of upward momentum. The market will then, I think at least, try to push towards $22.75 or so, and perhaps even beyond there. If we can break that level, then we can start to look at the 200 day EMA, and eventually after that, we would be looking at the top of the overall range which is at the $26 level. Keep in mind silver is very sensitive to interest rates and of course the US dollar so, that being said, I think you’ve got to look at this and keep an eye on the US dollar index as well as the 10-year yield.
They all coincide together to give you a picture of what might happen with this metal. Furthermore, you also have to pay attention to industrial demand because silver is much more industrial than gold, so although it does tend to follow gold longer term, the reality is that it also has quite a few more headwinds to come into the picture. If we break down below the $22 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $21 level, where I see even more support.
So, at this point I think a lot of value hunting is going on in the silver market and you just have to treat it as such. Be cautious with your position sizing and recognize the fact that the market is extraordinarily volatile. All things being equal, silver is at the bottom of the larger and longer term consolidation area, and therefore I think you need to look at this as a valuable opportunity more than anything else. With this, it’s only a matter of time before we do rally a bit at this point and reach toward the upper part of the consolidation over the longer term.
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Market Melody: Decoding Silver’s Trends, Breakdowns, and Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | January 22, 2024
• Silver sees deteriorating demand, putting lower trendlines at risk of being tested as support.
The technical picture in silver deteriorated on Monday as it fell to a new retracement low with a wide range red candle. Trading continues near the lows of the day but at the time of this writing the low is at 21.93. Minor support was seen there leading to a small bounce. Support was seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci level of a falling ABCD pattern, leaving the impression that it is recognized by the market. If a continuation of the ABCD pattern is triggered on a drop below today’s low of 21.93, silver will next target a full completion of the pattern at 21.21.
Completes 78.6% Extension Target
As discussed previously, the ABCD pattern can be extended by Fibonacci ratios. A standard target has the CD leg match the price change in the AB leg. Also, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels with the CD show a harmonic relationship. This means that based on the ABCD pattern along today’s low has the potential to be a bottom. However, other signs within the charts show silver at risk of testing lower support levels.
Lower Price Levels at Risk of Being Hit
Today, silver triggered a breakdown from a trendline thereby putting the lower trendlines at risk of being reached. You can see that the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 21.80 is very close to the long-term uptrend line, while the internal trendline is close to a match with the 100% completion of the ABCD pattern at 21.21. Each of these price levels may see signs of support if silver falls below that low. There is a large symmetrical triangle in silver that saw a false breakout in late-November. If silver fulfills a complete swing back it would be testing support around the bottom of the triangle near 21.21.
Signs of Deterioration
Signs of deterioration in the strength of demand can be seen with the 20-Day MA as it has recently fallen below both the 50 and 200-Day moving averages. You can see how the 20-Day line is recognizing the internal declining trendline as well. Given today’s definitive bearish day, downside targets are most likely to be tested. Additional bounces from today’s lows heads up into resistance around the above internal uptrend line. Today’s high at 22.66 can be used as a proxy for that line.
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Silver Continues to Test The Bottom of The Overall Range
By: Christopher Lewis | January 22, 2024
• Silver fell early during the trading session on Monday, reaching the $22 level.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
You can see silver has fallen pretty hard early in the session on Monday as it looks like we are continuing to threaten the $22 level. I do believe that the $22 level is an area that will continue to hold and you can see that short-term traders have already come back into the market looking to defend it. So, it could be a buying opportunity but I would not get too big, though.
Silver does tend to be very noisy and therefore it can be somewhat dangerous to trade, but having said that, this is a market that I think has got a pretty clear support level underneath that you will be paying attention to. If we can break above the $22.50 level, then I suspect that silver has a real shot at going quite a bit higher to the 200 day EMA right around the $23.20 level.
Breaking below the $22 level would obviously be very negative, but even in that environment, I don’t think I would be a seller because there seems to be a lot of buying pressure underneath there that extends down to at least the $21 level. So, with that in mind, if you have the ability to take on a small position, this might be an opportune moment.
What you will want to see is the US dollar fall a bit and interest rates fall a bit, both of which are very possible, but there really isn’t much in the way of economic announcements on Mondays, so there really isn’t a whole lot to get anybody excited. Keep in mind that silver is an industrial metal, so that comes into play as well, and that might be part of what’s been a little bit negative as of late, but nonetheless, we are still very much in this huge consolidation phase, and I just don’t see that changing very easily. As we are at the bottom of that range, it is probably more likely than not that the buyers will return and this is a bullish market, at least for the short term.
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Silver Continues to Find Buyers on Dips
By: Christopher Lewis | January 19, 2024
• Silver initially fell during the week but has found a little bit of buying pressure above the crucial $22 level yet again.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Thesilver market initially fell during the week, but we continue to find buyers underneath who are attracted to this market. The $22 level underneath is a large round number that a lot of people will be paying attention to, and an area where we’ve seen buyers in the past anyway. Furthermore, we have the 200-week EMA in that same region, so I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we go higher. If we can break above the 50-week EMA, then it opens up a move towards the $24.50 level, possibly even the $26 level. In general, this is a situation where every time we drop, it is just an opportunity to pick up cheap silver.
If we were to break down below the $22 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $21 level. But right now, I think we could be carving out more of the same type of consolidation that we’ve seen so much of in the last several years. This could be the fourth year in a row that we carve out a range. Right now, it looks like $22 on the bottom and $26 on the top, and that does tend to get tested and occasionally broken through, but if you look at the lines on the chart, you can see clearly these are two levels that have mattered for quite some time. All things being equal, I am bullish on silver, but I recognize that there are a lot of moving pieces at the moment, and therefore we will continue to see a lot of volatility here.
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Silver Continues to Look For Buyers Just Underneath
By: Christopher Lewis | January 17, 2024
• Silver markets look as if they are trying to stabilize near the $22.50 level, but I also believe that there is an overall range that extends all the way down to the $22 level, meaning that value can be found, but keep in mind that silver is extraordinarily noisy.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday but has turned around to show signs of life again. By doing so, it suggests that there is a certain amount of support near the $22.50 level that traders are paying attention to. Whether or not it ends up being longer term support remains to be seen because I think it’s more or less a support zone that we are talking about, not necessarily a support line. What I mean by this is that the support probably extends down to the $22 level. On the upside, the 200 day EMA sits right around the $23.33 level and if we can break that, then I think it’s a very good sign for silver going much higher. At that juncture, I would expect a market to go looking towards the $24.50 level above, which has been important multiple times.
And if we can break above there, then silver is very likely to go looking towards the $26 level. While bullish on silver, I recognize that it is a very difficult and choppy market under the best of circumstances and right now this is not the best of circumstances. Because of this, I think you have to be very cautious with your position sizing, but that’s probably sound advice when trading silver under any condition.
All things being equal, I do think that you will have to pay attention to the bond market, the 10 year yield specifically, in the United States, because it does have a negative correlation. Pay attention to the US dollar as well because it also has a negative correlation quite often for the exact same reasons. So, with that, I think you are looking to buy dips in the silver market, but I would not get aggressive in position sizing until the market starts to prove to you that your position is the correct one. At that point, then you can start to add to your position and truly start to try to capitalize on momentum.
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Silver Continues to be Very Noisy
By: Christopher Lewis | January 16, 2024
• Silver markets fell during the Tuesday session as traders came back from the holiday in full force.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has fallen a bit during the Tuesday session and at this point in time it certainly looks like we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of back and forth, but all things being equal, I do think that the $22 level underneath will end up being a major support level that people hang on to. As long as we can stay above the $22 level, it gives us an idea that we are just simply going to stay in the same consolidation region.
The 200-day EMA above offers short-term resistance and breaking above that level then opens up the possibility of a move to the $24.50 level, and then possibly even as high as the $26 level, which is the top of the longer term consolidation area. So, with that being said, the market is most certainly one which is going to be noisy, influenced by multiple different things at the same time, not the least of which would be interest rates, but we also have to worry about geopolitical concerns and of course we have to worry about the perceived central bank direction.
With all of this being said, I think we are essentially in the middle of a consolidation phase that could very well end up lasting most of the year. So, as we are closer to the bottom of the overall range than the top, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we bounce, but I would let it pull back a bit further before actually buying into this market. All things considered, I do like silver for the longer term but right now it looks like we are struggling a bit to pick up momentum, and therefore it is market that you need to be rather cautious with at the moment, as there are so many different moving pieces currently being factored into the marketplace.
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Navigating Silver’s Volatility: Patterns, Support Challenges, and Breakout Signals
By: Bruce Powers | January 16, 2024
• As silver navigates through consolidation, the convergence of moving averages points to a looming burst of volatility, possibly marking the end of an extended period of subdued price action.
A narrow range low volatility day was seen in silver on Monday. It tested resistance around the internal uptrend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which was previously support, with a high of 23.33. Once support becomes resistance in a weakening trend, the potential for a bearish continuation increases. A drop below today’s low of 23.11 is short-term bearish but it keeps silver trading within a consolidation range until a breakout of the range. The range is a full weekly candle that goes from last week’s low of 22.48 to the high of 23.53. Trading this week could easily stay within last week’s range.
Weekly Bullish Pattern
Last week’s candlestick pattern is a bullish doji hammer as the doji is within the top half of the week’s range. This provides some optimism for the bulls as it indicates last week’s low of 22. 48 may hold and be the low support level for now. Yet, silver faces clear resistance that needs to be overcome for a bullish rally to follow the current correction.
Convergence of Moving Averages Heightens Risk of Volatility Pop
Silver is below its trend indicators. Both the uptrend line and all the moving averages, 20, 50, and 200-Day moving averages, have been tested as resistance as of last week. Further, volatility could pick up very soon. Notice that the three moving averages have converged together reflecting very low volatility in silver. Also, notice that this is occurring during a period of relatively sideways price action. Typically, an increase in volatility follows periods of low volatility, especially extreme low volatility.
This situation puts silver at risk of a sharp move in either direction in the relatively near future. It may be the beginning of a continuation of the rally up from the October swing low, or it could lead to further tests of support down near the uptrend line. Silver has been consolidating within a narrowing range for the past eight months or so. Converging moving averages may reflect the beginning of the completion of the consolidation phase.
Signs of a Completed Correction
A falling ABCD pattern may have completed last week at the 22.48 low. If so, it would mark the end of a correction in a developing uptrend. If so, a breakout above last week’s high of 23.53 signals the possible end of the correction and continuation of the uptrend from the October low. A daily close above 23.53 will confirm the breakout.
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Drilling Down Into Gold and Silver
By: Mish Schneider | January 13, 2024
Silver futures have been experiencing narrower ranges as well.
With higher lows since October, the recent support at $22.50 an ounce, if holds, could mean this week is the week we start to see this metal shine. A move above the 2 moving averages would be a start. In cash, a breakout over $24 should do it. In the ETF, that would happen over 21.75.
In the futures, the spot price had a mean reversion in momentum. Should silver get this follow through, the next big event will be if it begins to outperform gold. Then we'll know that this move in gold is not just a flight to safety, but, very possibly, that super cycle might be starting even a bit earlier than we thought.
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Silver Falls Again on Wednesday
By: Christopher Lewis | January 3, 2024
• Silver fell in the early hours on Wednesday to show a continuation of somewhat dire momentum to kick off the new year. That being said, there are plenty of support levels underneath.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
During the session on Wednesday, silver fell to reach the crucial 200 day EMA. This is a rather ugly candlestick, but having said that, we are still very much in the middle of a lot of consolidation. Furthermore, we have to worry about ISM numbers, the jobs report, and a whole host of other things, not the least of which would be traders coming back into the markets and liquidity being all over the place during the next several sessions. Because of this, I don’t necessarily think silver is going to break down, but it is worth noting that we have had several negative days in a row.
Silver is going to behave a little bit differently than the gold market will, mainly due to the fact that it is also considered to be an industrial metal. If we are in fact going to see some type of slowdown out there, then demand for silver will probably drop. As things stand right now, I think there is a lot of support at the $22 level, maybe some minor support at the $23 level, so both of those are areas I would be paying close attention to for any type of bounce.
If we were to break down below $22, that opens up a move down to $21. On the upside, if we can take out the $24 level and go higher than that area, then the silver market could find itself reaching towards the $26 level eventually, which is the most recent high. It’s a sloppy and noisy range-bound type of market we are in, but that’s just the nature of silver to begin with.
Silver is an extremely volatile contract, so therefore you need to use a position size that makes sense when you don’t really know what the next thing to move silver is going to be. This is especially true during the first week of January when a lot of traders are just putting positions back on and there isn’t a whole lot to go off of as far as economic information.
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A Brief History of The Health Support Uses of SilverFor thousands of years silver has been used as a healing agent by civilizations throughout the world. Its medical, preservative and restorative powers can be traced as far back as the ancient Greek and Roman Empires. Long before the development of modern pharmaceuticals, silver was employed as a germicide. Consider these interesting facts:
Silver Re-DiscoveredNot until the late 1800's did western scientists re-discover what had been known for thousands of years - that silver is a powerful germ fighter. Medicinal silver compounds were then developed and silver became commonly used as a medicine. By the early part of the 1900s, the use of silver was becoming widespread. By 1940 there were approximately four dozen different silver compounds on the market. Although there were a few flare-ups of negative publicity regarding medicinal silver in the early 1900s, (due to the overuse of certain types of protein-bound silver compounds causing a discoloration of the skin called argyria and due to a supply of improperly prepared and unstable silver) reputable medical journal reports demonstrated that a properly prepared colloidal dispersion of silver was completely suitable with no adverse side effects. T. H. Anderson Wells reported in the Lancet (February 16th, 1918) that a preparation of colloidal silver was "used intravenously. . . without any irritation of the kidneys and with no pigmentation of the skin. " New knowledge of body chemistry gave rise to the enormous array of applications for colloidal disinfectants and medicines and for on-going research into the capabilities and possibilities for silver colloids. However, Silver's "new-found" fame as a superior infection-fighting agent was short lived. How Silver Lost FavorDuring the 1930s, synthetically manufactured drugs began to make their appearance and the profits, together with the simplicities of manufacturing this new source of treatment, became a powerful force in the marketplace. There was much excitement over the new 'wonder drugs' and at that time, no antibiotic-resistant strains of disease organisms had surfaced. Silver quickly lost its status to modern antibiotics. On-going Uses of Colloidal SilverThe use of some silver preparations in mainstream medicine survived. Among them are the use of dilute silver nitrate in newborn babies' eyes to protect from infection and the use of "Silvadine," a silver based salve, in virtually every burn ward in America to kill infection. A new silver based bandage has recently been approved by the FDA and licensed for sale. Other uses that did not lose favor include:
But for the most part, with the discovery of pharmaceutical antibiotics, interest in silver as an anti-microbial agent declined almost to the point of extinction. The Resurgence of Silver in MedicineThe return of silver to conventional medicine began in the 1970s. The late Dr. Carl Moyer, chairman of Washington University's Department of Surgery, received a grant to develop better methods of treatment for burn victims. Dr. Margraf, as the chief biochemist, worked with Dr. Moyer and other surgeons to find an antiseptic strong enough, yet safe to use over large areas of the body. Dr. Margraf investigated 22 antiseptic compounds and found drawbacks in all of them. Reviewing earlier medical literature, Dr. Margraf found continual references to the use of silver. However, since concentrated silver nitrate is both corrosive and painful, he diluted the silver to a .5 percent solution and found that it killed invasive burn bacteria and permitted wounds to heal. Importantly, resistant strains did not appear. But, silver nitrate was far from ideal. So research continued for more suitable silver preparations. Silver sulphadiazine (Silvadene, Marion Laboratories) is now used in 70 percent of burn centers in America. Discovered by Dr. Charles Fox of Columbia University, sulphadiazine has also been successful in treating cholera, malaria and syphilis. It also stops the herpes virus, which is responsible for cold sores, shingles and worse. The history and uses of colloidal silver are well known and documented. They can be researched easily on the Internet through search engines and any colloid forum, bulletin boards or blogs. We cannot link to them or publish them here because Federal Law prohibits any claims or testimonials associating our products or product ingredients with any disease states. Keep in mind that the particle surface area of our colloidal silver product, MesoSilver, is the highest ever tested. This means it is the most effective of any colloidal silver product ever made. With not a single serious adverse event ever reported, it is also one of the safest supplements on the market today.
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The Silver Price Will Rise 4.83 Times as Far as Gold Pricehttp://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/2008/12/silver-price-will-rise-483-times-as-far.html Unless you understand this one principle, you understand nought about precious metals' bull markets: monetary demand, and monetary demand alone, drives both gold AND silver. It's not Indian wedding demand or the popularity of silver jewelry that drives their prices, but sheer monetary demand, holding them as "money" because the alternatives -- national currencies -- are clearly failing. WHEREFORE, before this bull market ends, you will need only 16 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, which means from here that the silver price will rise 4.83 times as far as the gold price. Forget the siren song of the "gold-only" bugs, who have fallen for the myths of the money interest: both silver and gold are money, and always will be. GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLESeptember 3rd, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLEFundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.
Gold trendWe expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold's technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away. In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments. The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less. So what are the factors that are likely to lead to a major rise in the gold price? We have for several years outlined in our Newsletters the problems in the world that inevitably will lead to massive money printing and a hyperinflationary depression (see for example "Alea Iacta Est" and "There Will Be No Double Dip…" on the Matterhorn Asset Management website). There are three insurmountable problems:
The effect of this massive $20 trillion infusion has been ephemeral since we are entering the autumn of 2010 with virtually every single economic indicator and statistic in the US deteriorating rapidly. With interest rates already at zero there is no ammunition left but one. And it is this specific last bullet that will be used to infinity in the next few years and starting very soon, namely UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING. Every single area of the US economy will need support or printed money, whether it is the federal government, the states, the municipalities, banks, pension funds, insurance companies, the unemployed, corporations, health care, housing market, commercial real estate, individuals, etc, etc, etc. The list is endless and many other countries will follow. Before we talk about gold in hyperinflationary terms, let's look at where gold is likely to reach in today's money. Three realistic Gold targets: $6,000 - $7,000 - $10,000:
The three historical comparisons above (and see chart below) would put gold anywhere from $6,000 to $10,000 and this is without inflation, or more likely hyperinflation. In a hyperinflationary environment, the price gold will go to is really irrelevant since it depends on how much money is printed. In the Weimar Republic for example gold went to DM 100 trillion. What is more important is that gold is likely to go up at least 5 times from today without inflation and with hyperinflation gold will protect investors against the total destruction of paper money and many other assets. Wealth ProtectionGold must only be held in its physical form and the holder of gold must have direct access to the gold. We consider ETFs, gold in a bank (whether allocated or unallocated), fractal ownership of physical gold, futures or any other form of paper gold as very risky and a totally unsatisfactory method for owning gold. Physical gold should preferably be stored outside your country of residence and outside the banking system. The holder must have direct access to the vaults where the gold is stored. SilverSilver has been lagging gold since its peak at over $21 in 2008. For the last few months the gold/silver ratio has been consolidating between 58 and 71. The ratio is currently around 64 and is likely to start a move down to new lows below the 2006 low at just 44. So this is very good news for silver which is likely to outpace gold substantially in the next few years. Silver is probably the most undervalued precious metal today and has great potential. But there are many caveats for silver:
StockmarketsAt the beginning of July this year we sent out a message to investors that, based on our proprietary indicators, we expected stockmarkets to finish the correction up at the end of July and resume the major downtrend in August. We also said that gold would start its major rise in August. And this is exactly what has happened so far. We now expect major falls in all stockmarkets worldwide over a sustained period. We would not be surprised to see the Dow down to the 1,000 area (in today's terms) before this bear market in over. But it will not be a straight line and there will be extreme volatility. When hyperinflation sets in, stockmarkets will have a major but temporary surge. The only stocks that investors should hold are precious metals stocks and possibly some resource and food stocks. But it must be remembered that stocks do not represent the same degree of wealth preservation as physical precious metals held directly by the investor. CurrenciesCurrencies should in the next few years be looked upon as a necessary evil and not as a store of value. All currencies will continue to decline against gold, just as they have in the last 11 years and in the last 100 years. Due to money printing by most governments, we will have a fierce game of competitive devaluations by virtually all central banks. We have seen the Euro and the pound weaken substantially and the next currency the speculators will jump on is the US dollar. The dollar is grossly overvalued, partly due to the weak Euro, and is likely to weaken significantly due to the problems in the US economy. Currencies only reflect relative value and not absolute value since they can be and are printed until they reach their intrinsic value of zero. It is a fallacy to measure the value of a currency relative to another currency since they are all losing value. Currencies should only be measured against real money which is gold. This is the only method that reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. Therefore it is a mug's game to speculate or invest in currencies since they will all decline in an extremely volatile and unpredictable market. So are there currencies which are likely to perform better on a relative basis for funds that have to be held in paper money? We believe that Norwegian kroner, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Australian Dollar and Renminbi will perform relatively better than many other currencies. Government Bond MarketsThe bond market is the biggest bubble in financial markets worldwide, in our opinion. Investors around the world are worried about the state of financial markets and therefore believe that government bonds represent a safe haven. These investors will receive the most enormous shock on two accounts. Firstly, no government will be able to repay the debts outstanding. So there will either be government defaults, moratoria, or money printing that totally destroys the value of the bonds. Secondly, interest rates are likely to go up significantly to at least 10-15%, totally destroying the value of the bonds. ConclusionWe are now entering a period when most major asset classes and in particular stocks, bonds and currencies are starting a major decline. Since most financial assets in the world are invested in these three categories plus real estate which will also decline, we are likely to experience major shocks and crises in the financial system and the world economy. Wealth protection is now more important than probably at any other time in history. Physical gold and possibly other precious metals directly controlled by the investor will be a vital part of a wealth preservation portfolio. |
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