Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 10, 2024

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22594 is immediately trading down about 6.19% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Presently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 23169, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in February is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low but is trading rather weak at this moment. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 3 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 22580 and overhead resistance forming above at 22880. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 26340, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 17 weeks reaching a high during the week of January 29th at 22485. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.331% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 20850 as it has fallen back reaching only 4385 which still remains -78.9% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of January 29th reaching 23445 failed to exceed the previous high of 26340 made back during the week of December 4th in 2023. That rally amounted to only eight weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 22520. Resistance is to be found starting at 22880.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22263 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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