Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 20, 2024

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22711 is immediately trading down about 5.70% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Factually, this market has been rising for 2 months going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 22520 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 22785.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction rally from the low established during October 2023. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low but is trading rather weak at this moment. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 3 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 22915.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 26340, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May 2023 at 26435. After a two month rally from the previous low of 22785, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for two months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 22785 reaching 22785.

This market is trading well beneath that high of May 2023 which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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