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Bullish Momentum in Silver Signals Higher Price Targets
By: Bruce Powers | October 16, 2023
• Silver’s recent resistance at $22.80 and multiple trendline convergences point to renewed enthusiasm from buyers as demand improves. Watching for advance above last week’s high.
Silver found resistance last week at a high of 22.80 on Friday. That high marks a test of the long-term downtrend line (blue) as resistance and it held, leading to a bearish intraday reversal. Today, silver consolidates as it trades inside day. Further, last week’s high was also at the convergence of two shorter trendlines, one rising from the September swing low and the second, declining from the August 30 swing high.
Bullish on Both Daily and Weekly Charts
Both the daily and weekly time frame charts show bullish indications for silver. Silver has been advancing in a clear uptrend on its daily chart from its recent swing low of 20.67 hit two weeks ago. Further, last week triggered a bullish reversal on the weekly chart as a bullish hammer candlestick pattern triggered a breakout on a move above the previous week’s high of 22.18.
Multiple Resistance Indications Point to Same Price Zone
Note how last week’s high resistance matches the crossover of the three trendlines referenced above. A decisive breakout above last week’s high will have silver next testing resistance of the 200-Day EMA, currently at 22.59. Once a daily close occurs above the 200-Day line, then silver will have reclaimed all three trendlines, including the more significant long term downtrend line, and the important 200-Day EMA. That should clear it for a continuation higher.
Further signs of strength will then be confirmed on a rally above the interim swing high of 23.76. That should be followed by an advance above the top dashed orange channel line, and then the swing high of 25.00 from August 30. These additional signs of strength should eventually lead to silver testing prior swing highs of 26.12 and 26.93 on its way to still higher prices.
Inside Day for Aggressive Traders
Aggressive traders may use the inside day as a bullish signal rather than waiting for a move to new trend highs. In that case, a decisive breakout above today’s high of 22.71. Given the positioning of today’s inside day near the high of the trend and its narrow range, an upside breakout should show aggressiveness relatively quickly. Subsequently, a drop below today’s low of 22.46 points to a failure of the bullish breakout.
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$SIL $SILVER #Miners - Update: Nearing the 1st Target...
By: Sahara | October 16, 2023
• $SIL $SILVER #Miners - Update
Nearing the 1st Target...
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Silver $SLV - Some follow thru from that Wkly 'Hammer' at the Purple/MA. Slammed against the B/Down Line & Grey 100/MA...
By: Sahara | October 16, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Some follow thru from that Wkly 'Hammer' at the Purple/MA.
Slammed against the B/Down Line & Grey 100/MA...
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Silver Pulls Back Slightly
By: Christopher Lewis | October 16, 2023
• Silver pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, as the 50-Day EMA seems to be offering a bit of resistance.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, as the 50-Day EMA has come into the picture. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is trying to get down toward the $22.50 level again in order to see whether or not it holds as support. I believe that the next couple of days will be crucial for the silver market, and probably the markets in general. This has been one massive move on Friday, so one would assume that there’s probably some type of follow-through coming. Because of this, I am a bit cautious, but I also recognize that there are a couple of technical indicators just above that could come into the picture as well.
The 200-Day EMA sits above the $23 level, so we can see that it opens up the possibility of a move to the $24 level. The $24 level is an area that recently has seen a lot of selling pressure as well. In other words, there’s a lot of noise that the market needs to get beyond, and therefore I think we have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can build up the necessary momentum.
Pay close attention to the US dollar, because the silver market is highly sensitive to the greenback, and of course interest rates. Furthermore, the silver market is also sensitive to the idea of industrial demand, so we also have to look at the world through the prism of whether or not there is going to be demand for base metals.
Under the best of circumstances, silver is very noisy. These aren’t the best of circumstances, so it’s going to be even worse. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, then the market could challenge that $24 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the $22 level, then it opens up a new flood of selling pressure. I suspect that in the next couple of trading sessions, we will probably see a lot of noisy and choppy consolidation. Because of this, position sizing will be crucial for your survival when it comes to this type of volatility.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 14, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22895 is immediately trading down about 4.76% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 20850 while it is still trading above last month's close of 22450 implying near-term strength.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during August. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23100 and support forming below at 22110. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 2nd, which has been a move of 10.26%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
Silver Slams Into Resistance
By: Christopher Lewis | October 13, 2023
• Silver has rallied significantly to slam into previous support, which is now offering resistance.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied rather strongly during the trading session on Friday, as we have reached a previous support level. This should allow the market to find a bit of resistance, so we’ll have to wait and see whether or not it pulls back. If it does, that could be a sign that we have completely ran the course of the recovery, and could start to fall at this point. If that is in fact going to be the case, the $22 level would be targeted rather quickly in my estimation. That being said, you should also keep in mind that silver is an extraordinarily volatile instrument, so you need to be very cautious with your position sizing.
When you look at this chart, you can see clearly that the area that the market approached early in the United States trading session is an area that previously had been massive support. It should now have a certain amount of “market memory” attached to it, therefore I think it’s quite interesting to see what it does next. If it does in fact start to fall from here, then it’s likely that we continue the overall downtrend.
On the other hand, if we were to break above the $22.60 level in the futures market, that opens up the possibility of silver recovering completely. There are a couple of moving averages above there, including the 50-Day EMA, and the 200-Day EMA indicators. These of course are important, and a lot of people will pay close attention to them as potential resistance. That being said, anything above there opens up the possibility of the market going much, much higher, perhaps reaching the $25 level in time.
I do think that the one thing you can count on is a lot of volatility, and therefore you need to be cautious with their position sizing and only add to positions that are working out in your favor instead of trying to “front run the move.” Silver typically moves in the opposite direction of interest rates and the US dollar, but those correlations do break down from time to time. Ultimately, this is a very strong candlestick, but one has to wonder whether or not there is enough momentum to keep it going?
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Silver $SLV - Thus far a long wick, and gives us an 'Inv H&S' Plot around that MA...
By: Sahara | October 13, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Tapped & Turned again yet needs to hold over that Mthly Dotted-Grey.
Thus far a long wick, and gives us an 'Inv H&S' Plot around that MA...
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Silver $SLV - After reaching & Exceeding my 'Pennant' Target is now oscillating betwixt the 2Hr Lime/Blue MA's...
By: Sahara | October 13, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - After reaching & Exceeding my 'Pennant' Target is now oscillating betwixt the 2Hr Lime/Blue MA's...
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Silver Gives Up Early Gain
By: Christopher Lewis | October 12, 2023
• Silver initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back gains after the CPI numbers came out hotter than anticipated.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver started to rally early during the trading session on Thursday, but found a little bit of resistance above, which makes quite a bit of sense from a technical analysis standpoint, as we are approaching the crucial $22.50 region. Furthermore, the CPI number came out quite a bit hotter than anticipated in the United States, and it does suggest that perhaps the Federal Reserve will have to stay tighter for longer. This is what they’ve been saying all along, but occasionally Wall Street and other places like Canary Wharf need to be reminded of this.
Underneath, I see the $22 level as a significant support level, and therefore, I think you have a situation where the market is going to probably see some buyers stepping in for that reason. If we break down below the $22 level, then it’s likely that we drop down to the $21 level which is where we had bounced from to begin with. Ultimately, the market certainly has had a nice rally, but after that massive selloff it had previously, one would assume that sooner or later the sellers reappear. That being said, if we were to take out the $22 level, then we might have the possibility of the market going higher. The 50-Day EMA is just above there and waiting to cause some issues as well. I think it is only a matter of time before the sellers overtake, but if we were to go beyond the 50-Day EMA, then it does open up the possibility of a complete reversal. Having said that, I would not hold my breath.
The US dollar of course has a negative correlation to silver, and we also have the interest rates in America causing downward pressure on silver as well. With this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we revisit those lower levels. If we give up $21 to the downside, that could be really ugly, perhaps sending the market all the way down to the $20 level. Regardless, I think we have a lot of choppy volatility to deal with, so make sure you are reasonable with your position size as silver can be quite expensive if you are wrong.
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Recovered the Bull 'Wedge'. Now has to hold it...
By: Sahara | October 12, 2023
• $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Recovered the Bull 'Wedge'.
Now has to hold it...
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Silver eyes breakout, buoyed by safe-haven bid and dovish Fed speak - FX Empire's Hyerczyck
By: Ernest Hoffman | October 11, 2023
The safe-haven bid driven by the Israel-Hamas conflict and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials are combining to support silver prices, which could soon breach key levels and spark a breakout, according to James Hyerczyck, Senior Market Strategist at FX Empire.
“On Wednesday, spot silver (XAG/USD) is holding its ground at $21.88 per ounce,” noted Hyerczyck. “This balance is influenced by contrasting winds: dovish undertones from Federal Reserve officials have weakened the dollar, while geopolitical tensions involving Israel and Hamas are driving investors toward safe-haven assets like silver.”
Hyerczyck said that expectations for further rate hikes from the U.S. central bank have waned, driven in part by dovish commentary from the Fed itself. “[R]ecent comments from Fed officials are sparking a debate on the necessity and timing of further hikes,” he wrote. “Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic have cast doubts on the urgency for additional hikes.”
This dovish outlook appears to be a “growing sentiment” among top Fed officials, Hyerczyck said, and the statements “have resulted in a weaker dollar, indirectly boosting the appeal of silver for investors.”
Among the macroeconomic factors he sees supporting silver are moderating price growth and rising geopolitical risk.
“Inflation, a significant concern earlier this year, is showing signs of retreating,” he said, noting recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly that inflation is easing. “This lessening inflationary pressure reduces the opportunity cost of holding silver, an asset that doesn’t yield interest,” Hyerczyck said.
He added that investors will be closely watching this afternoon’s release of the Fed’s September meeting minutes and the U.S. CPI data on Thursday for further confirmation of the Fed’s dovish direction. “A higher-than-expected CPI could reignite talks of tighter monetary policy, which would undoubtedly put pressure on silver prices,” Hyerczyck said.
Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the Israel-Hamas conflict in particular, are also increasing demand for safe-haven investments, he noted. “In times of uncertainty, assets like silver often become the go-to choice for investors looking to hedge against volatility.”
Because silver is being influenced by disparate factors, Hyerczyck said that the precious metal’s short-term trajectory is difficult to discern. “While geopolitical tensions provide a supportive backdrop, the metal’s future moves will be heavily dictated by the upcoming U.S. economic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s policy direction,” he said. “Thus, the immediate outlook for silver remains delicately balanced between these contrasting market forces.”
Turning to the technical picture, Hyerczyck noted that the spot silver price “is nearing the trend line support at $22.23, which also coincides with the minor resistance level. A break above this dual threshold would typically indicate a bullish reversal, especially significant given that the commodity is rallying from a lower position.”
He added that silver is also not far below the 50-Day moving average of $22.97, which would add further bullish momentum if it’s successfully breached. “Considering all these factors, the market sentiment appears to be on the cusp of shifting from bearish to bullish, contingent on breaking and sustaining above these key levels,” he said.
Spot silver last traded at $22.02, and is up 0.83% on the session.
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Silver Continues to Reach Toward Resistance
By: Christopher Lewis | October 11, 2023
• Silver seems to have completely ignored the PPI numbers during the trading session on Wednesday, as they came in hotter than anticipated.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as the PPI numbers came out hotter than anticipated, showing that Chicago futures traders simply don’t care. With this being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of technical analysis, suggesting that perhaps we are going to head toward the $22.33 region, an area that previously had been rather supportive. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see noise more than anything else, so let’s be clear here, the CPI numbers on Thursday are going to be crucial.
If we show signs of exhaustion in that general vicinity, I suspect that the silver markets will be done rallying, and we could roll over. The CPI numbers could be that catalyst, so we will have to wait and see. Underneath, the $21 level is a significant amount of support, where we had bounced from. If we break down below the $21 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the $20 level after that, which is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure as well. Silver of course is very finicky, so you have to be very cautious with your position size and recognize that it can give you a massive headache due to the volatility at times.
You need to keep your position size reasonable and recognize that we could see a lot of noise during the trading session, and therefore you could get shaken out rather quickly if you are not careful. If we do break above that $22.50 region, then we could test the 50-Day EMA, but that would take a significant amount of momentum. If we turn around and break down below the bottom of the candlestick from the Monday session, that opens up massive selling. I anticipate that the CPI number will probably dictate the next direction, and of course the bond market as per usual. This has been a nice bounce, but when you look at the move to get down here, it was a vicious selloff so it should not be a huge surprise.
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Silver’s Bullish Reversal Signals Potential Upside Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | October 9, 2023
• Silver’s further rallies off the lows, supported by Fibonacci levels and trendlines, hints at a bottom in the making.
Silver continues to rally off last week’s low of 20.67, which was a little shy of completing an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement at 20.49. A bullish reversal off the bottom is now clear with silver retracing its most recent downswing by almost 50% (occurs at 22.11). Silver found support for the retracement around an area of Fibonacci confluence levels along with the bottom trendline of a descending parallel channel. Plus, the long-term rising trendline that begins from the March 2020 low converges in the same price zone.
Early Signs that Correction May be Over
Given the subsequent bullish reaction of the past two days, silver has likely completed its correction. This should allow for the larger bullish uptrend to reassert itself eventually. The RSI has turned back up above the 30 oversold level following a dip to its lowest level since February.
Trading Inside Week Could Lead to Choppy Swings
On a weekly basis, silver is trading within last week’s range, and it may continue to do so the rest of this week given how wide it was. Last week’s high was 22.18 and the low was 20.67. An initial upside target for silver is around the prior swing low of 22.10, which is confirmed by the 50% retracement at 22.11. If silver does continue to trade inside week, it will likely see increased volatility with swings up and down given that it is stuck within a range. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement completes at 22.45, which sits close to the prior swing low of 22.66.
Key Level is Recent Swing High at 12.76
A key level for silver will be the most recent swing high at 12.76. Once that level is exceeded to the upside the bullish outlook for silver should improve. At that point silver would be back above the 200-Day EMA and long-term downtrend line, two key indicators for the health of the bull trend.
Silver’s recent sharp selloff may cause a sharp reaction in the opposite direction – up. We may be seeing the early signs of that now. The recent correction triggered stops during its decline, exceeded a 78.6% retracement and almost reached the extreme 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. However, the uptrend price structure remains intact with a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows.
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Silver $SLV - Turn came in on cue. Now needs to prove it doesn't need to visit that 62/Fib...
By: Sahara | October 9, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Turn came in on cue...
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Silver Has Volatile Open for the Week
By: Christopher Lewis | October 9, 2023
• Silver initially rallied and gapped right away on Monday, before running out of momentum and closing that gap rather quickly.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver of course has been very noisy to kick off the trading week as precious metals markets reacted to the Hamas invasion of Israel. With that being said, the market gapped to the upside right away, shot higher, but as the Americans are coming on board in the futures markets are starting to liven up a bit, we have seen a complete repudiation of that move. I suspect this probably will have more to do with the US dollar than anything else, although it’s obvious that silver had been oversold. A little bit of a bounce from the $21 level probably was reasonable to expect, and now that we have seen this candlestick, you have to wonder whether or not we are going to consolidate, or if we are going to go higher?
Keep in mind that silver is highly sensitive to the US dollar, and then by extension to interest rates. Because of this, you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is going to continue to move quite wildly, which is a scenario where silver becomes especially dangerous, because it is so volatile and expensive to begin with. If you are trading the futures contract, you could find yourself in serious trouble rather quickly, as silver is known for its volatility, and of course it’s a very big contract. If you are trading the CFD market, then you can position size accordingly, but I would not get overly exposed due to the fact that there are a lot of problems just waiting to happen.
Underneath, we have the $21 level offering a significant amount of support, and if we were to break down below there, that could open up the bottom in the market, allowing it to go to the $20 level rather quickly. On the upside, I see the $22.33 level as offering significant resistance, and then again at the $22.50 level. We recently had the so-called “death cross” that a lot of people pay close attention to, so that would be worth paying attention to as well, as it could cause a few headaches as technical traders get involved.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 7, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.24%. Currently, the market is trading above one of our three internal momentum indicators warning there is at least some underlying support forming. Nevertheless, on our indicating ranges, the market still remains a partial bearish position yet there is showing underlying support but it is trading strongly higher up some 4.43% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 22245, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 22060 may have reached a high. However, keep in mind that any decline from here must be more than just 2 to 3 sessions Our Stochastics are also turning upward but are still not in a full bullish position warning the momentum is not exceptionally strong.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during August. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low but is trading rather weak at this moment. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 22325 and support forming below at 21595. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 17th at 25475, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 13 weeks reaching a high during the week of September 18th at 23060. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 13.30% in a stark panic type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of September 18th reaching 24050 failed to exceed the previous high of 25425 made back during the week of August 28th. That rally amounted to only three typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
Silver Bounces From the Lows
By: Christopher Lewis | October 6, 2023
• Silver has initially plunged during the week, but has turned around to recover from the lows of the week to show signs of a potential pushback.
Silver Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver markets have fallen significantly during the course of the week, but are also starting to show signs of stabilization as we close out the candlestick. By doing so, it suggests that perhaps there might be a short-term rally coming, and it does make a certain amount of sense considering the precious metals in general are oversold. The jobs number on Friday came out triple what was expected, it may have people looking at silver as a potential industrial play, not necessarily a precious metals one.
Because of this, I think it’s probably going to be a situation where you have to pay close attention to the familiar $22.33 level, an area that previously had been significant support. It should now be significant resistance based upon the theory of “market memory”, and of course the fact that there had been so much structural trading in that area to begin with. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, that would obviously be very negative and it could send this market reeling.
At that point, I would expect to see the silver market reach toward the $20 level underneath which was a significant swing low going back to the beginning of the year, and of course will not only have a certain amount of psychology attached to it, but also have a ton of options barriers one thing. Nonetheless, I think this remains a “fade the rally” market, but you may be better served doing that on the daily chart but using the weekly chart for your analysis.
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$SLV #SILVER - Update: Into my Alt-C Level....
By: Sahara | October 6, 2023
• $SLV #SILVER - UPDATE
Into my Alt-C Level....
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Silver $SLV - Update: Into the Lwr-Parallel in conjunction with the 62/Fib...
By: Sahara | October 5, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - UPDATE
Into the Lwr-Parallel in conjunction with the 62/Fib...
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Silver Continues to Consolidate in Lackluster Performance
By: Christopher Lewis | October 5, 2023
• Silver initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but has seen some downward pressure sense.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver continues to be very volatile as we chop around in the same area that we have been in over the last couple of days. Keep in mind that we had recently plunged rather drastically, and perhaps more importantly from a technical analysis standpoint, have seen the 50-Day EMA break below the 200-Day EMA, in what is known as the “death cross.” This is a very bearish indicator that a lot of longer-term technical analysts will pay close attention to. That being said, technical analysis can only get you so far.
Looking at this chart, I think it’s pretty easy to see that the sellers are in control, and now we are simply waiting around to see what the next move is. I suspect that will be sorted out on Friday after the jobs report in the United States is released, because it will give you an idea as to where interest rates are going to go. Higher interest rates are absolutely toxic for silver, as we have seen over the last week or so. That being said, I look at any rally with a little bit of suspicion. Sure, it could open up the possibility of a move toward the $22.33 level above which I thought was rather impressive support, as it would test “market memory.” However, if we turn around and break down below the two hammers that we have formed over the last couple of days, they could open up a move down to the $20 level.
At the end of the day, this is going to come down to the short end of the yield curve in the United States, and of course the 10 year note. Interest rates rising in those markets will hammer silver, sending it down to $20 rather quickly. If they start to fall off, then that could give the catalyst for short-term rally in this market, but right now I think silver has a lot of problems, and not just interest rates. A higher US dollar and of course the fact that we may be heading into a rather large recession drives down demand for silver as it is also an industrial metal.
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Silver Faces Intense Bearish Pressure, Testing Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | October 3, 2023
• Silver faced a substantial sell-off last week, hitting a 27-week closing low and closing at the week’s lowest point. The bearish sentiment has carried over into the current week, marked by a sharp decline Monday.
Silver sold off hard last week, closing at a 27-week closing low and at the low for the week. That bearish sentiment has carried over to this week as seen in today’s wide range red candle. Lows are being further tested at the time of this writing. So far, silver has reached a low for the day of 21.16.
Flirting With Possible Area of Support
Today’s low is flirting with a possible support zone from around the lower parallel channel line, the long-term uptrend line, and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 21.12. Certainly, there are no indications yet that the price of silver has reached an area of support. Downward pressure continues to dominate trading activity. A declining ABCD pattern with the CD leg extended by 127.2% of the AD leg completed today at 21.24 but silver kept falling. The lower edge of the current support zone is around the 141.4% Fibonacci extension of the falling ABCD pattern at 21.05.
Silver is Very Oversold
Silver is in an extreme oversold area as indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator. The current reading is 24.71. That’s the most oversold level for silver since February. This doesn’t mean that silver will not keep falling as an oversold condition can last some time. However, if a bullish reversal comes within the support zone noted above, the condition of the RSI will be supportive of such a move.
Initial Rally Could Reach Prior Lows Starting around 22.09
If a bounce comes off the current support zone, then the prior support price range from around 22.09 to 22.28 is a potential resistance zone of note. Today’s price action reflects a flush out of weak holders in silver. If it continues with a drop below 21.05, the 88.6% price zone will be next in line at 20.49. And the prior March swing low at 19.76 will be at risk of being reached. We will be following price action carefully during the remainder of this week for any clues that may provide some clarity as to what comes next. Just keep in mind that sharp moves in one direction are frequently followed by sharp moves in the opposite direction.
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Silver falling to 7-month lows
By: Barchart | October 2, 2023
• Silver falling to 7-month lows.
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Silver Continues to Plunge
By: Christopher Lewis | October 2, 2023
• Silver has fallen rather hard during the trading session on Monday, as we have seen the US dollar and interest rates in the United States spike higher.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver fell rather significantly during the trading session on Monday, kicking off the week with a lot of selling pressure. All things being equal, rallies at this point will continue to be sold into, especially with the massive amount of market memory that would be attached to the $22.50 level. That’s an area that had previously been supported, so therefore it makes sense that it would be resistance. Furthermore, the size of the candlestick is a significant sign that we are going to have a lot of negativity. Alternatively, this is a situation where the market should be sold into any time we rally at the first signs of exhaustion.
Keep in mind that the silver market is highly sensitive to interest rates and of course the US dollar, so with that being the case it’s very interesting that the market has been choppy for some time, but decidedly negative. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to reach down toward the $20 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course the market will pay close attention to it not only due to that, but the fact that there are probably massive amounts of options down there waiting to jump into the market and show signs of life. Ultimately, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but at this point I think it’s pretty obvious that the silver market is in a lot of trouble.
The market would have to break above the $23 level for me to get bullish, and even then, it would be a little bit cloudier due to the fact that there are so many cross currents in the fundamental part of this equation. Regardless, I think this is a situation that continues to be a “fade the rally” type of market due to the fact that the interest rates in the United States continue to climb, and of course the US dollar does the same. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to struggle on the margin, as there are far too many issues to belief that a lot of risk appetite is going to be found.
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Silver $SLV Well that was one ugly dump on big volume on Friday... new range low
By: Options Mike | September 30, 2023
• $SLV Well that was one ugly dump on big volume on Friday... new range low.
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Silver Death Cross: Death Cross just hit for the Silver Trust iShares $SLV
By: Barchart | September 29, 2023
• SILVER DEATH CROSS: Death Cross just hit for the Silver Trust iShares $SLV
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 30, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22450 is immediately trading down about 6.61% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. At present, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during August. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23100.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 14th at 22265, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 23060. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market,
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Unbelievable move on SLV Calls.........pre-market anyway.......they're trying to kill it b4 market opens
Z
Silver $SLV - Note that 'Coil' Spprt Line is aligned with the Wkly 200/MA Equivalent...
By: Sahara | September 28, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Note that 'Coil' Spprt Line is aligned with the Wkly 200/MA Equivalent...
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Silver $SLV - Blue-Buffer holding up. For now at least...
By: Sahara | September 28, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Blue-Buffer holding up.
For now at least...
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Silver Continues to Look at Support Underneath
By: Christopher Lewis | September 28, 2023
• The silver market has continued to stabilize near the $22.50 level, as we see the overall consolidation area continue to hold.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has hung onto the support level of the bottom of the longer-term consolidation area, as we continue to test the $22.50 region. Keep in mind that higher rates have been a major factor in the silver market as of late, and rates seemingly do not want to stop climbing. That being said, silver does have a little bit of protection in the form of industrial use, unless of course people start to focus on the idea that the economy is going to slow down. Regardless, there’s also the part that comes into play when it suggests that silver could protect a little bit of wealth.
That being said, higher interest rates are the thing that traders are focusing on at the moment, and therefore it certainly has a negative influence on silver itself. If we can turn around and rally from here, the 200 day EMA above could be a short-term target, and if we can break above there, then we can go much higher. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, then it could go looking toward the top of the range, which is closer to the $25.50 level.
Expect a lot of volatility, but ultimately, I do think that the range has held so far, and that’s something worth paying attention to. However, if we were to turn around and break down below the support level underneath, it opens up a move to the $22 level, and then after that we have a move on to the $20 level. Ultimately, this is a situation where you need to be cautious with your position sizing, due to the fact that silver is naturally volatile anyway. However, at this point there are so many different crosscurrents that it’s going to be difficult to hang on to anything with a huge position on.
As for a strategy, I’m looking to enter the market very slowly, and then add to it over the next several sessions once I do get involved. All things being equal, this is a market that is about to make a bigger move, and once it does I plan on being involved, but I won’t jump in with a huge position right away.
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Silver $SLV - With the Bear 'Pennant' in-play I said to watch for the Lwr-Band which has now relented
By: Sahara | September 27, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - With the Bear 'Pennant' in-play I said to watch for the Lwr-Band which has now relented.
So unless we see a miracle it will not only fill that 'Gap' but pressure the Blue-Buffer and aim for my Red Arrowed Target...
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Silver $SLV - Slipped that Lwr-Band which brings the recent lows into focus...
By: Sahara | September 27, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Slipped that Lwr-Band which brings the recent lows into focus...
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Silver Continues to See Negative Pressure
By: Christopher Lewis | September 27, 2023
• Silver fell again during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of negative pressure due to the bond market and other reasons.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver fell again during the trading session on Wednesday, as we are testing the $23 level. The $23 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, and therefore it would not be a big surprise to see a little bit of a bounce, but the real support is closer to the $22.50 level. The $22.50 level is an area where we have seen a lot of noise in the past, and if we were to break down below there, it would attract a lot of attention.
The 200-Day EMA is near the $23.50 region, and we also have the 50-Day EMA and the 20-Day EMA indicators in that same general vicinity. Ultimately, silver is going to continue to react to the bond markets, and the fact that rates continue to skyrocket in America. As long as that is going to continue to be an issue, the reality is that silver is going to struggle. Furthermore, you also have to look at the reality that the market is going to continue to be very noisy and volatile, so you need to be cautious with your position sizing, but that’s probably sage advice most days when it comes to silver as it tends to be such a wild market.
Ultimately, I think we are going to continue to see a lot of noisy and back-and-forth behavior, but the level I’m paying the most attention to is a $22.50 level, because if we were to break down below there, it opens up the possibility of an attempt on the $22 level, perhaps even down to the $20 level. That obviously would probably accompany a major move higher in the US dollar, something that I do think could be ready to happen. On the other hand, if the market were to turn around and show signs of life here, it would probably be a sign that the US dollar is struggling overall. I think this is literally day-to-day noise, and therefore you need to be small in your position and recognize that we are still very much in a consolidation phase.
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Silver Continues to Find Support Underneath
By: Christopher Lewis | September 26, 2023
• Silver fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility. As things stand right now, we are still very much in the same consolidation range.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday to reach down toward the $23 level, but as things stand, it looks like we are trying to turn around and show signs of life. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, then the market could go much higher, as we continue to see a lot of support underneath in a market that has obviously been very noisy for some time. Alternatively, the $22.50 level underneath is a massive support barrier, and of course we have a lot of noise between here and there.
On the other hand, if the market were to take off to the upside, then the $25.50 level then becomes the ceiling above. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a whole lot of noisy behavior, therefore I think the best thing you can do is keep your position size reasonable. Ultimately, this does look like a market that’s trying to form some type of short-term basing pattern, but we also have to worry about interest rates.
As interest rates rise, it makes riskier investments such as silver a lot less attractive. After all, you can get paid to simply sit still in the Treasury market, instead of taking on a lot of volatility. Silver is volatile under the best of conditions, and right now we are definitely not in the best of conditions. However, it does look like we have a short-term bounce in play, so short-term traders will probably take advantage of that opportunity. In general, this is a scenario where the volatility continues to cause a lot of headaches, so you do need to be cautious, but position sizing can keep you out of a lot of trouble.
The US dollar of course has a negative correlation with this at times as well, so that will be something that is worth paying attention to. Ultimately, this is a scenario that I think the short-term traders will continue to love, but for those of you that are trying to trade longer-term, you will have to have your position size reasonable so that you can hang on to the various fluctuations that you are getting ready to see.
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Has now met the 'Measured Move' Target for the Bear 'Pennant'
By: Sahara | September 26, 2023
• $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Has now met the 'Measured Move' Target for the Bear 'Pennant'.
Want to see it as an Overthrow and turn from here to recover the Bull 'Wedge'. Otherwise it could get brutal...
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Analyzing Silver’s Short-Term Prospects Amidst Recent Price Swings
By: Bruce Powers | September 25, 2023
• Key support at 22.80 is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook, while a decisive rally above 23.76 would confirm the ongoing uptrend.
Last week silver triggered a bullish weekly reversal on a breakout above the prior week’s high of 23.28. The pattern from the previous week’s high was a bullish hammer candlestick. Subsequently, the bullish breakout was confirmed by daily closes above the week’s high as well as a strong weekly close, in the top half of the week’s high to low range. Starting this week, silver has pulled back triggering a daily bearish reversal from an inverted hammer candlestick pattern formed last Friday.
Weekly Breakout Followed by Consolidation
Given the weekly breakout of a strong bullish candle last week and the subsequent confirmation of strength, silver can be expected to eventually follow-through to the upside. On the weekly chart there is the beginning of a series of higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows. In the interim, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some consolidation and profit taking kick in first. We are starting to see that today.
Weekly High and Low Provide Key Price Levels
Nevertheless, last week’s high and low-price levels identify the key nearby resistance and support levels to watch. Last week’s low and support was 22.80. A drop below there is not anticipated if the general short-term bullish outlook is to be maintained. However, it if does happen, then the possibility of a test of the recent low of 22.28 increases.
Bull Move Above 23.76
On the upside, a decisive rally above last week’s high of 23.76 triggers a continuation of the evolving uptrend (from September 14 swing low). Following today’s close, an upside breakout above today’s high of 23.63 will also provide a bullish signal. The difference from waiting for a weekly breakout is that a daily breakout is more likely to fail and lead to a continuation of the current developing inside week, which represents consolidation on that time frame.
Traders Cautious as Volatility Declining
Volatility in silver has been declining the past couple of months as price compresses with shorter swings developing overall. Lower volatility and consolidation lead to more false signals and a lack of follow-through. The shrinking of volatility can be seen by looking at how the uptrend and downtrend lines are moving closer together. They will cross around December 11. Until silver gets out of consolidation as represented by those two lines, it is likely to continue to face a higher degree of uncertainty and lack of directional follow-through.
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Silver $SLV - Note where the stall came in on the Daily. Failure to Recover those 100 & 150/EMA's will target the Lwr Channel-Band & Alt-C...
By: Sahara | September 25, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Note where the stall came in on the Daily.
Failure to Recover those 100 & 150/EMA's will target the Lwr Channel-Band & Alt-C...
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Silver $SLV - We got a Blue Candle Last Week following that 'Hammer'. Yet stalled at the Wkly 100/EMA. So still oscillating betwixt that & the 100/EMA...
By: Sahara | September 25, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - We got a Blue Candle Last Week following that 'Hammer'.
Yet stalled at the Wkly 100/EMA. So still oscillating betwixt that & the 100/EMA...
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Looking for an Overthrow of the Lwr-Band...
By: Sahara | September 25, 2023
• $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Looking for an Overthrow of the Lwr-Band...
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Silver Continues to See Noise
By: Christopher Lewis | September 25, 2023
• The silver market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday to show signs of hesitation.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has gone back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are not quite ready to go forward. At this point, there are a lot of crosscurrents, as traders are paying close attention to the US dollar and interest rates. Ultimately, this is a situation where the market will have to make its decision rather soon, but the 200-Day EMA underneath should offer significant support if we do get some type of pullback. After all, we have recently bounced from a major floor in the market, and have seen a nice recovery, although it’s been very noisy. Having said that, it’s not overly surprising, considering that there’s so much in the way of indecision out there right now.
On the upside, the most obvious resistance barrier is near the $25.50 level, an area that will continue to be important. If we can break above that, then the market is likely to go looking toward the $26.50 level, but that is something that would take a lot of momentum to get there. All things being equal, I think this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as silver is volatile under the best of conditions, and these aren’t the best of conditions, so it may become even louder in its noise.
Pay close attention to the US dollar, as it has a negative correlation at times, but it is not something that has to be set in stone. Furthermore, you could also take a look at the interest rate situation, because the higher the interest rates, typically that is negative for silver and other metals, although we find ourselves in a very interesting situation at the moment, as traders are just simply trying to find something to retain value, so silver may even be a little bit of a safety play for once. Beyond that, silver is also an industrial metal, so you need to keep that in the back of your mind as well, as it can be a major influence on where silver ends up going as well. The only thing you can do is keep an eye on your position sizing.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 23, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 23844 is immediately trading down about 0.81% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 4 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 24812, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23815 and overhead resistance forming above at 24655. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 17th at 25475, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 10 weeks reaching a high during the week of August 28th at 24085. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.301% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 22140 as it has fallen back reaching only 4385 which still remains -80.1% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25425 made 3 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 20412 and 27164.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of August 28th reaching 25425 failed to exceed the previous high of 25475 made back during the week of July 17th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading below that high of May which was 26435 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 22700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Silver Rallies for the Week
By: Christopher Lewis | September 22, 2023
• Silver rallied this week, breaking the top of a major hammer from the previous week.
Silver Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver rallied significantly during the course of the trading session after initially dipping. The 50-Week EMA is offering a little bit of support, and of course we did break above the top of the hammer from the previous week. At this point, it looks like silver is going to try to go back to the top of the overall range, which means it could be heading to the $25.50 level. That being said, it’s likely that we will see a lot of volatility because silver is also an industrial metal right along with the precious one.
Interest rates around the world remain elevated and that does work against the precious metal part of silver, but there’s also the inflationary concerns to pay attention to. When inflation rises, quite often commodities do the same, so that might be part of what we are seeing in silver. If we can break above the $25.50 level, the market then goes looking to the $26.50 level. On short-term pullbacks, I think that the $22.50 level continues to be a lot of support, with the 200-Week EMA sitting just underneath there. At this point, I just don’t see how you can short silver at the moment, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that you jump in with both feet.
Ultimately, I think you do see an upward projection, but given enough time I think you’ve got a situation where volatility is going to be something that you have to contend with. Because of this, keep your position size reasonable, therefore I think we’ve got a scenario where smaller or non-levered positions are desirable, adding to a position once it starts working out for your trade.
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Silver $SLV - Refrained from putting in a deep red candle at that Cyan/MA I talked about yesterday
By: Sahara | September 22, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Refrained from putting in a deep red candle at that Cyan/MA I talked about yesterday.
Now returning to the Arrowed Script...
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Silver $SLV - A pop & fail here too again shown on the 2-Day Chart. Showing the 100/EMA as the res.
By: Sahara | September 21, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - A pop & fail here too again shown on the 2-Day Chart. Showing the 100/EMA as the res.
Needs to refrain from putting in a deep red candle at that Cyan/MA..
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The Silver Market Continues to Wait for FOMC
By: Christopher Lewis | September 20, 2023
• The silver market has initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session, only to turn around and show signs of life.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, but then turned around to show signs of life again. That being said, we are currently trading between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA. That being said, the market seems as if it is trying to sort out where to go next, and the fact that the FOMC meeting is later during the day certainly has an effect on that as well.
Ultimately, this is a scenario where we will have to make a bigger decision, and it will almost certainly be due to the statement after the meeting. If the Federal Reserve sounds extraordinarily hawkish, that could be negative for silver, and of course if the Federal Reserve sounds like they may be thinking about switching their tone, then it’s possible that silver can take off from here.
All of this being said, the market is likely to pay attention to the overall consolidation area, with a $22.50 level underneath offering support. Above, we have the $25.50 level offering resistance, and as we are closer to the bottom than the top, it does make a certain amount of sense that you would favor the upside. If we were to break down below the bottom of the range, then it’s likely that we could go down to the $20 level underneath. On the other hand, if we break above the 50-Day EMA, then you could see the market go toward a $25.50 level, but it may take some time. A break above that opens up the possibility of a move to the $26.50 level.
The fact that the last 2 candlesticks have been conflicting with each other tells me that the market is just trying to sort out what it wants to do, and with that being the case it does make quite a bit of sense that we will see volatility. In a very volatile market, especially one as typically volatile as silver, it pays to be cautious with your position sizing and only build up the position as the market moves in your favor.
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Silver Continues to Look to Upside Cautiously
By: Christopher Lewis | September 19, 2023
• The silver markets continue to rally, as the impending FOMC meeting looms large with silver traders.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver experienced a modest rally during Tuesday’s trading session, signaling its intent to break through the stubborn $23.50 resistance level, a persistent obstacle in recent times. If this resistance is successfully breached, it could open the door to a potential upward surge. The market has been striving to rebound from the lower end of its long-term range, and current momentum seems to favor an upward trajectory. It’s important to note that the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average hovers just above, likely to attract the attention of market participants.
In analyzing the silver market, the $22.50 level emerges as a crucial support zone, while the $25.50 level above represents the upper boundary of the range. Considering all these factors, it appears that silver is gearing up for an upward move, albeit amid expected volatility along the way. This volatility could become more pronounced, given the imminent FOMC meeting and the accompanying press conference scheduled for Wednesday. The market’s behavior may also be influenced by the performance of the US dollar, although the correlation between the two is not always perfect.
Interest rates also exert their influence on the silver market, but it’s essential to acknowledge that silver has been consolidating within a reasonably well-defined range since May. Therefore, it’s prudent to expect this range to continue influencing the market, at least in the intermediate term. At this juncture, the preference leans toward adopting a buying strategy rather than selling. However, it’s crucial to recognize that this market is unlikely to experience a sudden take-off. Instead, it’s more likely to involve a gradual ascent, characterized by periods of grinding movement. Given this expectation, closely monitoring position sizes is paramount, as volatility is expected to be a recurring challenge.
Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that silver currently finds itself closer to the bottom end of its range than the top. This suggests that there is a certain level of demand in the market at present, reinforcing the notion that buying opportunities may be more favorable than selling ones. As the silver market navigates its dynamics, a prudent and patient approach remains key to capitalizing on potential opportunities. Regardless, it’s important to exercise caution and avoid overexposure on one side or the other, despite the fact that we are currently closer to the bottom of the range.
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Silver Forecast: Potential for Sharp Rally from Weekly Bullish Pattern
By: Bruce Powers | September 18, 2023
• Silver’s recent resistance tests near the 200-Day EMA suggest an impending breakout, potentially marking a turning point in its price trajectory.
For six out of the past eight days silver has been testing resistance of the 200-Day EMA, currently at 23.21. It did so again today as it hit a high of 23.23. Nonetheless, silver is on track to close at its highest daily closing price in nine days. This could be the precursor to a breakout above the 200-Day EMA. Yesterday’s daily high of 23.28 can also be used as a price level given that it identifies the high resistance level of the eight-day range. A daily close above 23.28 will confirm a breakout of the eight-day bottoming formation.
Highest Close in Nine Days Will Show Strength
In addition to the likelihood of today’s close being at a nine-day closing high, it will also be the first daily close that is clearly above the long-term downtrend line in the past eight days. For the past 17 weeks or so silver has been swinging up and down within a consolidation range. As it starts to trade back above the long-term trend line the chance for an upside breakout of consolidation intensifies. A narrowing of the range has begun in recent weeks as the last swing high and lower were closer to each other than the prior two. Price contraction usually leads to price expansion.
Potential for Aggressive Buying as Seen in 2020
The larger picture in silver is bullish and relates to previous price action from 2020. In August 2020 silver peaked at a high of 28.89, which ended a 165.8% rally off the March 2020 low of 11.22. Subsequently, it made a new trend high of 30.08 in February 2021 and has been in correction mode since, forming a declining parallel trend channel. This price behavior is like a flag but on a larger scale. Nevertheless, once a decisive sustainable breakout occurs out of the trend channel, an accelerated upward move may occur as aggressive demand returns.
Weekly Bullish Hammer Breakout on Move Above 23.28
Last week silver completed a bullish hammer candlestick pattern at the bottom of the retracement. A bullish breakout is signaled on a move above 23.28 and a daily close above it will confirm strength. Once confirmed, short-term weakness has a greater chance of recovering to the upside.
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Silver $SLV - Stepping back from that 'Bowl' on the 4Hr Chart I just showed...
By: Sahara | September 18, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Stepping back from that 'Bowl' on the 4Hr Chart I just showed...
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Silver $SLV - Popped a Res-Line after recovering from that fake move lwr. Now has to recover the 4Hr/EMA's...
By: Sahara | September 18, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Popped a Res-Line after recovering from that fake move lwr.
Now has to recover the 4Hr/EMA's...
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Silver Continues to See Upward Pressure
By: Christopher Lewis | September 18, 2023
• The silver market rallied just a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday, as we continue to flirt with the resistance barrier just above.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied just a bit during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to break above the $23.50 region, an area that has had significant resistance as of late. If we can break above here, then it’s likely that we could continue to go much higher. After all, the market has been trying to recover from the bottom of the longer-term range, and so far, it looks as if momentum is trying to push to the upside. Furthermore, we also have the 50-Day EMA sitting just above, so people will be paying attention to that as well.
When I look at the silver market, I see the $22.50 level as an area of the bottom, while the $25.50 level above is the range. All things being equal, it does look like we are getting ready to try to reach toward the upside, but I think it’s going to be very noisy along the way. This is especially true considering that Wednesday is the FOMC meeting and of course the press conference. A lot of this may come down to what happens with the US dollar, as though to have a negative correlation.
That being said, the correlation is not always 100%, so you can only read so much into that. Interest rates of course have their influence as well, but quite frankly this is a market that has been consolidating in a fairly well-defined area since May, therefore it’s likely that we continue to respect that dynamic, at least in the intermediate term. At this point, I am much more interested in buying than selling, but I don’t think this is a situation where the market suddenly takes off, I think it will be more or less a big grind than anything else. Because of this, position sizing is something that you’re going to have to pay close attention to, because volatility will almost certainly be very troubling at times. Nonetheless, we are closer to the bottom than the top, so one would have to assume that there is a certain amount of demand in this market at the moment.
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A Brief History of The Health Support Uses of SilverFor thousands of years silver has been used as a healing agent by civilizations throughout the world. Its medical, preservative and restorative powers can be traced as far back as the ancient Greek and Roman Empires. Long before the development of modern pharmaceuticals, silver was employed as a germicide. Consider these interesting facts:
Silver Re-DiscoveredNot until the late 1800's did western scientists re-discover what had been known for thousands of years - that silver is a powerful germ fighter. Medicinal silver compounds were then developed and silver became commonly used as a medicine. By the early part of the 1900s, the use of silver was becoming widespread. By 1940 there were approximately four dozen different silver compounds on the market. Although there were a few flare-ups of negative publicity regarding medicinal silver in the early 1900s, (due to the overuse of certain types of protein-bound silver compounds causing a discoloration of the skin called argyria and due to a supply of improperly prepared and unstable silver) reputable medical journal reports demonstrated that a properly prepared colloidal dispersion of silver was completely suitable with no adverse side effects. T. H. Anderson Wells reported in the Lancet (February 16th, 1918) that a preparation of colloidal silver was "used intravenously. . . without any irritation of the kidneys and with no pigmentation of the skin. " New knowledge of body chemistry gave rise to the enormous array of applications for colloidal disinfectants and medicines and for on-going research into the capabilities and possibilities for silver colloids. However, Silver's "new-found" fame as a superior infection-fighting agent was short lived. How Silver Lost FavorDuring the 1930s, synthetically manufactured drugs began to make their appearance and the profits, together with the simplicities of manufacturing this new source of treatment, became a powerful force in the marketplace. There was much excitement over the new 'wonder drugs' and at that time, no antibiotic-resistant strains of disease organisms had surfaced. Silver quickly lost its status to modern antibiotics. On-going Uses of Colloidal SilverThe use of some silver preparations in mainstream medicine survived. Among them are the use of dilute silver nitrate in newborn babies' eyes to protect from infection and the use of "Silvadine," a silver based salve, in virtually every burn ward in America to kill infection. A new silver based bandage has recently been approved by the FDA and licensed for sale. Other uses that did not lose favor include:
But for the most part, with the discovery of pharmaceutical antibiotics, interest in silver as an anti-microbial agent declined almost to the point of extinction. The Resurgence of Silver in MedicineThe return of silver to conventional medicine began in the 1970s. The late Dr. Carl Moyer, chairman of Washington University's Department of Surgery, received a grant to develop better methods of treatment for burn victims. Dr. Margraf, as the chief biochemist, worked with Dr. Moyer and other surgeons to find an antiseptic strong enough, yet safe to use over large areas of the body. Dr. Margraf investigated 22 antiseptic compounds and found drawbacks in all of them. Reviewing earlier medical literature, Dr. Margraf found continual references to the use of silver. However, since concentrated silver nitrate is both corrosive and painful, he diluted the silver to a .5 percent solution and found that it killed invasive burn bacteria and permitted wounds to heal. Importantly, resistant strains did not appear. But, silver nitrate was far from ideal. So research continued for more suitable silver preparations. Silver sulphadiazine (Silvadene, Marion Laboratories) is now used in 70 percent of burn centers in America. Discovered by Dr. Charles Fox of Columbia University, sulphadiazine has also been successful in treating cholera, malaria and syphilis. It also stops the herpes virus, which is responsible for cold sores, shingles and worse. The history and uses of colloidal silver are well known and documented. They can be researched easily on the Internet through search engines and any colloid forum, bulletin boards or blogs. We cannot link to them or publish them here because Federal Law prohibits any claims or testimonials associating our products or product ingredients with any disease states. Keep in mind that the particle surface area of our colloidal silver product, MesoSilver, is the highest ever tested. This means it is the most effective of any colloidal silver product ever made. With not a single serious adverse event ever reported, it is also one of the safest supplements on the market today.
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The Silver Price Will Rise 4.83 Times as Far as Gold Pricehttp://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/2008/12/silver-price-will-rise-483-times-as-far.html Unless you understand this one principle, you understand nought about precious metals' bull markets: monetary demand, and monetary demand alone, drives both gold AND silver. It's not Indian wedding demand or the popularity of silver jewelry that drives their prices, but sheer monetary demand, holding them as "money" because the alternatives -- national currencies -- are clearly failing. WHEREFORE, before this bull market ends, you will need only 16 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, which means from here that the silver price will rise 4.83 times as far as the gold price. Forget the siren song of the "gold-only" bugs, who have fallen for the myths of the money interest: both silver and gold are money, and always will be. GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLESeptember 3rd, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLEFundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.
Gold trendWe expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold's technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away. In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments. The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less. So what are the factors that are likely to lead to a major rise in the gold price? We have for several years outlined in our Newsletters the problems in the world that inevitably will lead to massive money printing and a hyperinflationary depression (see for example "Alea Iacta Est" and "There Will Be No Double Dip…" on the Matterhorn Asset Management website). There are three insurmountable problems:
The effect of this massive $20 trillion infusion has been ephemeral since we are entering the autumn of 2010 with virtually every single economic indicator and statistic in the US deteriorating rapidly. With interest rates already at zero there is no ammunition left but one. And it is this specific last bullet that will be used to infinity in the next few years and starting very soon, namely UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING. Every single area of the US economy will need support or printed money, whether it is the federal government, the states, the municipalities, banks, pension funds, insurance companies, the unemployed, corporations, health care, housing market, commercial real estate, individuals, etc, etc, etc. The list is endless and many other countries will follow. Before we talk about gold in hyperinflationary terms, let's look at where gold is likely to reach in today's money. Three realistic Gold targets: $6,000 - $7,000 - $10,000:
The three historical comparisons above (and see chart below) would put gold anywhere from $6,000 to $10,000 and this is without inflation, or more likely hyperinflation. In a hyperinflationary environment, the price gold will go to is really irrelevant since it depends on how much money is printed. In the Weimar Republic for example gold went to DM 100 trillion. What is more important is that gold is likely to go up at least 5 times from today without inflation and with hyperinflation gold will protect investors against the total destruction of paper money and many other assets. Wealth ProtectionGold must only be held in its physical form and the holder of gold must have direct access to the gold. We consider ETFs, gold in a bank (whether allocated or unallocated), fractal ownership of physical gold, futures or any other form of paper gold as very risky and a totally unsatisfactory method for owning gold. Physical gold should preferably be stored outside your country of residence and outside the banking system. The holder must have direct access to the vaults where the gold is stored. SilverSilver has been lagging gold since its peak at over $21 in 2008. For the last few months the gold/silver ratio has been consolidating between 58 and 71. The ratio is currently around 64 and is likely to start a move down to new lows below the 2006 low at just 44. So this is very good news for silver which is likely to outpace gold substantially in the next few years. Silver is probably the most undervalued precious metal today and has great potential. But there are many caveats for silver:
StockmarketsAt the beginning of July this year we sent out a message to investors that, based on our proprietary indicators, we expected stockmarkets to finish the correction up at the end of July and resume the major downtrend in August. We also said that gold would start its major rise in August. And this is exactly what has happened so far. We now expect major falls in all stockmarkets worldwide over a sustained period. We would not be surprised to see the Dow down to the 1,000 area (in today's terms) before this bear market in over. But it will not be a straight line and there will be extreme volatility. When hyperinflation sets in, stockmarkets will have a major but temporary surge. The only stocks that investors should hold are precious metals stocks and possibly some resource and food stocks. But it must be remembered that stocks do not represent the same degree of wealth preservation as physical precious metals held directly by the investor. CurrenciesCurrencies should in the next few years be looked upon as a necessary evil and not as a store of value. All currencies will continue to decline against gold, just as they have in the last 11 years and in the last 100 years. Due to money printing by most governments, we will have a fierce game of competitive devaluations by virtually all central banks. We have seen the Euro and the pound weaken substantially and the next currency the speculators will jump on is the US dollar. The dollar is grossly overvalued, partly due to the weak Euro, and is likely to weaken significantly due to the problems in the US economy. Currencies only reflect relative value and not absolute value since they can be and are printed until they reach their intrinsic value of zero. It is a fallacy to measure the value of a currency relative to another currency since they are all losing value. Currencies should only be measured against real money which is gold. This is the only method that reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. Therefore it is a mug's game to speculate or invest in currencies since they will all decline in an extremely volatile and unpredictable market. So are there currencies which are likely to perform better on a relative basis for funds that have to be held in paper money? We believe that Norwegian kroner, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Australian Dollar and Renminbi will perform relatively better than many other currencies. Government Bond MarketsThe bond market is the biggest bubble in financial markets worldwide, in our opinion. Investors around the world are worried about the state of financial markets and therefore believe that government bonds represent a safe haven. These investors will receive the most enormous shock on two accounts. Firstly, no government will be able to repay the debts outstanding. So there will either be government defaults, moratoria, or money printing that totally destroys the value of the bonds. Secondly, interest rates are likely to go up significantly to at least 10-15%, totally destroying the value of the bonds. ConclusionWe are now entering a period when most major asset classes and in particular stocks, bonds and currencies are starting a major decline. Since most financial assets in the world are invested in these three categories plus real estate which will also decline, we are likely to experience major shocks and crises in the financial system and the world economy. Wealth protection is now more important than probably at any other time in history. Physical gold and possibly other precious metals directly controlled by the investor will be a vital part of a wealth preservation portfolio. |
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