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Pan American Silver $PAAS Put Writing into the 10/20 $17 Puts at the Bid
By: FLOWrensics | September 18, 2023
• $PAAS PUT WRITING into the 10/20 $17 PUTS at the BID
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 16, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 23386 is immediately trading down about 2.72% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 4 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 24812, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23455 and support forming below at 23130. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 17th at 25475, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 10 weeks reaching a high during the week of August 28th at 24085. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 11.28% in a stark panic type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 22140 as it has fallen back reaching only 4385 which still remains -80.1% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 22140 made 12 weeks.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of August 28th reaching 25425 failed to exceed the previous high of 25475 made back during the week of July 17th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 22710. Additional support is to be found at 22610. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 22700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
Silver Takes Off
By: Christopher Lewis | September 15, 2023
• Silver rallied rather significantly during the Friday session to reach the 200-Day EMA.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver has rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, as it reached the 200-Day EMA. At this point, we will have to make some type of decision as to where we’re going next. If we can continue this rally, the market could then go look into the $25 level given enough time. All things being equal, this is a situation where silver had reached the bottom of a large consolidation area, near the $22.50 level, only to turn around and bounce yet again. If the market stays in the same range it has been in since May, then it makes a lot of sense that we would rally from here.
It’s worth noting that the negative correlation between the US dollar and silver has decoupled, at least temporarily, and therefore you cannot look to the currency markets were too much in the way of help at the moment. I think a lot of this comes down to the idea that it sold off so quickly, and that there are value hunters out there willing to get involved. Furthermore, there is the precious metals aspect of silver, and I think people are trying to protect wealth as they see that silver had pulled back a bit. Finally, I also think that it comes down to the idea that inflation could continue to rip higher, and therefore people are trying to protect that very same wealth. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, and it’s probably worth noting that we formed a massive hammer during the previous session.
In general, this is a situation where I think the market has a lot of volatility ahead of it, but ultimately it would not surprise me at all to see silver go higher, but it may take several weeks to get back to the top of the range of we do in fact see bullish pressure to make that happen. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the lows of the Friday session, we could drop down to the $22 level, possibly even down to the $20 level underneath, so that’s a big move worth watching the potential set up present itself if it does in fact happen.
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Silver $SLV - The dip held at the Lwr-Paralell.
By: Sahara | September 15, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - The dip held at the Lwr-Paralell.
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Silver Plunges Toward Support
By: Christopher Lewis | September 14, 2023
• Silver has fallen significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are testing the bottom of the overall range. The $22.50 level continues to be important.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has seen the market fall rather significantly during the trading session as the US dollar spiked. That being said, the $22.50 level underneath does offer a lot of support, as it is the bottom of the overall range. The question now is whether or not it can hold, and that will be the main argument on the minds of traders. Ultimately, interest rates are a major driver of where silver could go, as well as the US dollar. If we were to break down below the $22.50 level, then it’s likely we go looking to the $20 level underneath.
On the other hand, if we see this area hold, we could see a nice bounce toward the 200-Day EMA. That being the case, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore we need to pay close attention to what’s going on in the US dollar, and of course interest rates, right along with this indicator. If we break above there, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $24 level, although that would take a significant amount of momentum. At this point, I think silver is probably going to bounce around and try to figure out what to do with itself. That being said, you should be cautious with your position size as silver is extraordinarily volatile under the best of circumstances, and at this point it doesn’t look like we have a lot of certainty.
From a purely technical analysis standpoint, it does look like this would be an area of value, so I think a lot of people will be paying attention to it. That being said, I’m probably going to wait until next week to actually put any money to work, because I want to see how the dust settles on Friday. The markets continue to see a lot of uncertainty around the world, and the more volatile assets such as silver will most certainly pay a price for being as wild as they are typically. The US dollar continues to be strong, but that by itself may not be what brings silver down.
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Silver Market Update - How it will perform during a stockmarket crash...
By: Clive Maund | September 11, 2023
As with gold the increasing danger going into this Fall is that silver gets caught up in a “pan selloff” involving a market crash triggered by a cascade of bank failures, a crisis in the debt market and another long period of lockdown using a Covid variant / climate scare as the excuse, which would be far worse than what we saw in 2008. If the Fed succeeds in heading this off by creating trillions in advance to throw into up propping up all the failing Banks then this selloff might be averted but such action would lead to hyperinflation, and if this course of action is taken gold and silver will break out and soar, but it is by no means certain that they will do this. As set out in the parallel Gold Market update a market crash this Fall may be planned for various nefarious reasons and it certainly looks at this point the most likely scenario.
On silver’s 13-year chart we can see that it is definitely at a critical juncture, as it is hovering just above the boundary of a giant Bowl pattern and is also at the right side of the Handle of a giant Cup & Handle base – it must break out soon or break down. A breakout above the major resistance shown will usher in a major new bullmarket phase while a break down occasioned by a market crash will trigger a plunge that will probably lead to an “icicle” or “stalactite” pattern such as we saw in 2020 at the time of the Covid Crash where it plunges but then recovers just as quickly and what is expected to happen in this scenario is that the Fed comes riding to the rescue with huge wads of newly created crash as they did in 2020. Greg Mannarino did a good job in a recent video entitled SITUATION CRITICAL! of explaining why a big reason for the impending Covid 2 lockdown is to give the Fed the excuse to do just that. With silver, keep in mind that if it does break down and plunge, it is likely to come back fast and strong and then break out upside into a major bullmarket, so the plunge will be “the Mother of all Head Fakes” even exceeding the hugely deceptive Head Fake of March 2020 when after plunging to an abyssmally low level, silver turned on a dime and soared up to $30. So it could be a wild roller coaster ride and while the scenario shown on the chart is conjecture at this point it could very well happen and if it does we will at least have been aware of the possibility and won’t be caught off guard.
On the 4-year chart we can see how, all things being equal, which they are not, silver looks poised to break out upside from the large Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern that comprises the latter part of the Handle of the giant Cup & Handle base shown on the 13-year chart into a major bullmarket, but again, if the stockmarket plunges, we could first see a gigantic Head Fake drop, as set out above, before silver comes roaring back to fulfil what this chart promises as markets response to the Fed opening the money spigots full bore. The scenario shown is not assigned a high probability because it is so outlandish but it is much more possible than would normally be the case because of the way things are shaping. This is why it is shown so that you are at least aware of it and won’t be taken by surprise by a plunge and sudden dramatic reversal to the upside. Keep in mind what Mannarino always points out – that the more debt Central Banks create the stronger they become. Essentially these Banks are a “wealth transfer engine” who sluice wealth up to the top of the pyramid as they create vast quantities of money out of thin air, gift most of it to themselves and their cronies and stick society with the tab via inflation – nice work if you can get it.
On the year-to-date chart we can see a further indication of the tight technical situation which currently exists that is abundantly clear on the 13-year chart, which is the current close bunching of the price and its moving averages with recent price swings and momentum swings (MACD) tending to narrow. All this points to a big move soon and as set out above, with markets looking set to crash in coming weeks or over the next month or two, this break is expected to be a “head fake” plunge to the downside and if this eventuates it should present a rare and brief opportunity to buy silver (and gold and the PM sector) ahead of a gigantic and probably unprecedented upside explosion.
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Silver Continues to See Lackluster Behavior
By: Christopher Lewis | September 13, 2023
• Silver dipped a bit while waiting for the CPI numbers, and the ECB announcement on Thursday.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Wednesday witnessed a dip in the silver market, leaving traders in a state of uncertainty as they grapple with the metal’s overall direction. Silver currently teeters on the brink, hovering perilously close to the lower boundary of a range it has occupied for an extended period. A critical support level resides at $22.50, raising the possibility of a descent to that pivotal mark. While a pause in silver’s ascent was anticipated, the metal appeared hesitant to embark on a significant move at this juncture.
Should the $22 threshold falter, prospects for silver could further erode, potentially leading to a decline to the $20 level, provided that prevailing pessimism lingers. Chart analysis reveals a protracted oscillation pattern that has persisted over several months, signaling a consistent scenario of range-bound trading. This cyclic pattern frequently emerges as markets accumulate positions in anticipation of the impending fall season and colder months, a recurring phenomenon seen year after year.
In the event of a reversal, surpassing the high recorded during Thursday’s session could serve as a catalyst for an upward trajectory toward recent peaks. However, a formidable obstacle awaits at the $25.50 mark, historically proving to be a resilient barrier for silver’s ascent. Overcoming this hurdle may pave the way for a potential climb to $26.50. Nevertheless, several critical factors merit close scrutiny. Firstly, the trajectory of the US dollar holds paramount importance, given the well-established inverse correlation between silver prices and the dollar’s strength. Additionally, the outlook for industrial demand remains uncertain, particularly in light of discussions concerning initiatives like the “green new deal.” Lastly, interest rates warrant vigilance, as higher rates can diminish the allure of precious metals such as silver.
Ultimately, the silver market’s recent dip has left traders grappling with the puzzle of its future trajectory. While the possibility of a descent to $22.50 remains on the horizon, the market remains ensnared in a recurrent pattern of range-bound trading, a trend that has persisted since May of this year. The potential to breach the $25.50 threshold offers a glimmer of hope, contingent upon various factors, including the performance of the US dollar, industrial demand dynamics, and interest rate movements. For now, it appears that silver will continue navigating its familiar range, prompting traders to remain vigilant and closely monitor these key indicators as they navigate the market’s ebbs and flows.
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Silver $SLV - CPI Incoming at Spprt. Yet watch for a fake move first perhaps. Otherwise failure could be deep...
By: Sahara | September 13, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - CPI Incoming at Spprt.
Yet watch for a fake move first perhaps. Otherwise failure could be deep...
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Silver Continues to See Consolidation at Lows
By: Christopher Lewis | September 12, 2023
• Silver seems to be trying to sort itself out during the session on Tuesday, as we are consolidating and waiting for momentum.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
On Tuesday, the silver market experienced a noticeable dip, enveloping traders in uncertainty as they struggles with overall direction of this precious metal. Silver currently hovers precariously close to the lower limit of a range it has occupied for an extended period. At the crucial $22.50 level, a significant support structure exists, and the possibility of a descent to that mark cannot be ignored. While silver certainly needed a pause, it seems hesitant to embark on a significant move at this juncture.
Should the $22 threshold give way, prospects could further deteriorate, possibly leading to a drop to the $20 level if prevailing pessimism persists. Chart analysis reveals a prolonged back-and-forth pattern that has persisted for several months, indicating a persistent range-bound scenario. This is a common occurrence as markets accumulate positions in anticipation of the fall season and colder months, a cyclical pattern seen year after year.
In the event of a reversal, surpassing the high of Thursday’s session could signal an ascent towards recent peaks. However, a significant obstacle stands at the $25.50 mark, which has historically proven to be a formidable barrier for silver. Overcoming this hurdle may open the path to a potential climb to $26.50. However, several critical factors deserve close attention. Firstly, the trajectory of the US dollar is crucial, given the historical inverse correlation between silver prices and the strength of the dollar. Additionally, the outlook for industrial demand remains uncertain, especially in light of discussions surrounding initiatives such as the “green new deal.” Lastly, interest rates warrant vigilance, as higher rates can diminish the appeal of precious metals like silver.
In summary, the silver market has experienced a downturn, leaving traders grappling with the mystery of its future direction. While a descent to $22.50 remains plausible, the market finds itself trapped in a recurring range-bound cycle that has persisted for an extended period. The possibility of breaking the $25.50 threshold provides a glimmer of hope, contingent upon factors like the US dollar’s performance, industrial demand, and interest rates. For now, it seems silver will continue to navigate its familiar range, a pattern that has held since May of this year. Therefore, it is wise for traders to keep a vigilant eye on these key indicators as they navigate the ups and downs of this enduring market trend.
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Silver $SLV - Slipped nearer to my 2nd Target...
By: Sahara | September 11, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Slipped nearer to my 2nd Target...
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Silver Continues to See Support
By: Christopher Lewis | September 11, 2023
• Silver sees support below, and therefore we are watching whether or not it is going to bounce.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Monday ushered in a noticeable dip in the silver market, casting a veil of uncertainty over traders as they grapple with the market’s elusive direction. Presently, silver teeters dangerously close to the lower threshold of a range it has occupied for an extended duration. At the pivotal $22.50 level, a substantial support structure exists, and the possibility of descending to that marker cannot be dismissed. It’s clear that silver needed a breather, but it seems hesitant to embark on a significant move at this juncture.
Should the $22 threshold falter, prospects could further deteriorate, potentially resulting in a descent to the $20 level should the prevailing pessimism persist. Chart analysis reveals a protracted back-and-forth pattern that has endured for several months, signaling the enduring presence of a range-bound scenario. This phenomenon is emblematic of markets accumulating positions in anticipation of the impending fall season and the onset of colder months, a cyclical pattern that recurs year after year.
In the event of a reversal, surmounting the high of Thursday’s session could signal an ascent toward recent peaks. However, a formidable obstacle looms at the $25.50 mark, historically a formidable barrier for silver. Overcoming this barrier may pave the way for a potential climb to $26.50. However, several critical factors merit close scrutiny. Firstly, the trajectory of the US dollar holds sway, given the historical inverse correlation between silver prices and the dollar’s strength. Additionally, the outlook for industrial demand remains uncertain, particularly in light of discussions surrounding initiatives such as the “green new deal.” Lastly, interest rates warrant vigilance, as higher rates have the potential to diminish the allure of precious metals like silver.
In summary, the silver market encountered a downturn, leaving traders grappling with the enigma of its future trajectory. While a descent to $22.50 remains plausible, the market finds itself ensnared in a recurring range-bound cycle that has persisted for an extended period. The prospect of breaching the $25.50 threshold offers a glimmer of hope, contingent upon variables such as the US dollar’s performance, industrial demand, and interest rates. For the present, it appears that silver will continue to traverse its familiar range, a pattern that has held steadfast since May of this year. Consequently, a vigilant eye on these key indicators is advised as traders navigate the ebbs and flows of this enduring market trend.
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Recall I had 'Leading Diagonal' for the price up to $9.96
By: Sahara | September 11, 2023
• $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Recall I had 'Leading Diagonal' for the price up to $9.96.
Maybe the 'Wedge' is an 'Ending Diagonal' for W-v of c to complete the deep correction?
We'll soon see...
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 9, 2023
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 23174 is immediately trading down about 3.60% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 4 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 24812, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 23265.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 14th at 22265, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 24085. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 22700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Silver Market Continues to Slump
By: Christopher Lewis | September 8, 2023
• Silver continues to show lackluster performance on Friday, as the markets pay close attention to the US dollar.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Friday brought about a notable dip in the silver market, leaving traders in a state of uncertainty as they endeavor to discern the market’s direction. Currently, silver is skirting perilously close to the lower boundary of a range that it has occupied for an extended period. At $22.50, there exists a significant support level, and the possibility of descending to that mark cannot be discounted. Evidently, silver required a respite, but it appears hesitant to initiate a substantial move at this juncture.
Should the $22 threshold falter, prospects could deteriorate further, potentially precipitating a descent to the $20 level if the prevailing negative sentiment persists. Chart analysis indicates a protracted back-and-forth pattern that has persisted for several months, signaling an entrenched range-bound scenario. This phenomenon is characteristic of markets in the process of accumulating positions in anticipation of the forthcoming fall season and the colder months that lie ahead. It’s a cyclical occurrence, repeating year after year.
In the event of a reversal, surmounting Thursday’s session high could herald an ascent towards recent peaks. However, a considerable obstacle looms at the $25.50 mark, which has historically proven to be a formidable barrier for silver. Overcoming this obstacle may pave the way for a potential climb to $26.50. However, several crucial factors warrant close observation. Firstly, the trajectory of the US dollar holds sway, given the historically inverse relationship between silver prices and the dollar’s strength. Additionally, the outlook for industrial demand remains uncertain, particularly in light of discussions surrounding initiatives like the “green new deal.” Lastly, interest rates warrant vigilance, as higher rates have the potential to diminish the allure of precious metals like silver.
In summary, the silver market experienced a downturn, leaving traders in a quandary about its future trajectory. While a descent to $22.50 is plausible, the market has been ensnared in a recurring range-bound cycle for an extended period. The prospect of breaking past $25.50 presents an opportunity for improvement, contingent on factors such as the US dollar’s performance, industrial demand, and interest rates. For the time being, it appears that silver will persist in its familiar range, a pattern that has endured since May of this year. Consequently, a watchful eye on these key indicators is advised as traders navigate the ebb and flow of this enduring market trend.
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Silver Breaks Down Yet Again
By: Christopher Lewis | September 7, 2023
• Silver fell again during the trading session on Thursday, as we are trying to break down through the 200-Day EMA.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has fallen during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are trying to figure out what to do with the market in general, but at this point I think it’s starting to become close to falling to the bottom of the overall consolidation. The $22.50 level underneath is the bottom of the overall range, it we could very well fall all the way down to that level. Either way, it’s obvious that silver needed to take a bit of a breather, but now it looks like we just aren’t ready to go anywhere.
The $22 level underneath being broken to the downside could open up a big move much lower. In that general vicinity, we could see the market drop down to the $20 level if we continue to see negative pressure. However, when you look at this chart, it’s obvious that we have been going back and forth for quite some time, and therefore I think we have a situation where we are simply banging around like we have been for several months.
If we turn around and take out the top of the candlestick for the Thursday session, it’s possible that we could go back toward the highs, but all things being equal this is a market that has seen the $25.50 level as massive resistance, and therefore if we can break above there, then the market could go looking to the $26.50 level. However, there are a lot of things out there that you need to pay close attention to, not the least of which of course would be the US dollar as the negative correlation between silver and the US dollar is well known.
Furthermore, there’s also the industrial demand question, and therefore it’s likely that we see the market will continue to see a lot of the questions about the “green new deal” and its demand for silver. Ultimately, I think we will just continue to trade in the consolidation area that has been so clear since the month of May earlier this year. Interest rate markets have to be watched as well, because higher interest rates do tend to work against the value of metals overall.
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Silver $SLV - Continued down from that 'Shooting Star' Candle following my Red-Script.
By: Sahara | September 7, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Continued down from that 'Shooting Star' Candle following my Red-Script.
And now testing the 'Bowl' Perimeter. Failing to hold here will target the Lwr Blue-Band. A fail of that will take us to the Grey Band for Alt-C...
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Silver $SLV - Update: from when I warned of it fading and implied it was more likely an Overthrow...
By: Sahara | September 7, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Update
from when I warned of it fading and implied it was more likely an Overthrow...
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Silver Stabilizes on Wednesday
By: Christopher Lewis | September 6, 2023
• Silver has stabilized a bit during the day on Wednesday, as it looks like the wave of selling is finally slowing down.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has stabilized the bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like the selling is abating a bit in the market. We are sitting between the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA indicators, typically an area that causes a lot noise. Ultimately, if we can recapture the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $24.50 level above. That being said, if the market were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick during the session on Wednesday, then it opens up a move down to the 200-Day EMA, which presently sits right around the $23.40 level.
In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as silver is typically a very noisy market to begin with. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of negative correlation to the US dollar, and of course the interest rates coming out of the United States. That being said, silver is also an industrial metal and we will have to pay close attention to the idea of whether or not the market will be seeing more demand coming out of the industrial sector. I suspect that’s probably not the case, but it is always something that you need to pay attention to.
That being said, it looks like the US dollar is turning around and showing a little bit of negativity during the trading session on Wednesday, so that does help out the silver market, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to see a massive run higher. Keep in mind that we are roughly in the middle of the overall consolidation area, which features the $25.50 level at the top, and the $22.50 level on the bottom. As long as we are in the middle, then it has a situation where there is going to be a lot of hesitation and uncertainty, but we have a couple of levels that were previously mentioned that we can pay attention to in order to glean some type of trade. Furthermore, pay close attention to that negative correlation with the greenback.
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Buying more every chance I get.
Silver’s Retreat: Analyzing Fibonacci Patterns and Potential Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | September 4, 2023
• A bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, coupled with a drop below last week’s low, suggests increasing selling pressure.
Silver peaked at a trend high of 25.00 last week. That high completed an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement before it began a correction. During the advance silver was able to close above the internal downtrend line for a couple days before it fell back below the line last Thursday. A pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 23.93 may complete today as the low of the day so far is 23.95 and silver continues to trade near the low of the day’s range at the time of this writing. However, given the bearish pattern on the weekly chart it looks likely that silver will deepen its pullback.
Weekly Bearish Pattern Triggers, Increasing Selling Pressure
On the weekly chart (not shown) there is a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern that was completed last week. A bearish signal was triggered today on a drop below last week’s low of 24.03 and the price action confirms that selling pressure is increasing. When looking at Fibonacci ratio analysis the next likely target is around 23.67 to 23.0, consisting of a prior weekly high and the 50% retracement, respectively. That price zone is followed by a range from around 23.27 to 23.17. It consists of the 61.8% retracement level at 23.27, the 200-Day EMA is at 23.23, and a weekly low at 23.17.
Key Lines Should Provide Support on the Way Down
Following a retracement low of 22.21 three weeks ago, silver was subsequently able to burst back above both the long-term uptrend line and 200-Day EMA and continue to rise. As it pulls back from last week’s high those two lines are key areas to watch for support. Moreover, the 22.81 price zone, which is where two trendlines cross and is marked by a purple right extended line on the chart would be the maximum low that we would like to see.
Bullish Pattern on the Monthly Chart
Longer-term price dynamics as represented on the monthly chart indicate that silver could accelerate higher at some point. For the previous several months it has tested and held above the 34-Month EMA. Last month’s candle pattern is a bullish hammer. Although in this case it would be a continuation pattern rather than a reversal, which is more common. A decisive rally above last week’s high of 2.02 triggers a monthly bullish signal for silver.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 2, 2023
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 24562 and is trading up about 2.17% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on a monthly level. Currently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 4 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 24812, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 24440 and overhead resistance forming above at 24845. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 17th at 25475, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of August 14th, which has been a move of .1369%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading below that high of May which was 26435 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 22700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
I'm buying as much $pslv as I can.
Good luck to you.
$SIL $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Wkly 'Harami' Candles being bullishly confirmed this week
By: Sahara | September 1, 2023
• $SIL $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Wkly 'Harami' Candles being bullishly confirmed this week.
Tho has yet to recover the first of the MA's...
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Silver Rallies After Jobs Number
By: Christopher Lewis | September 1, 2023
• The silver market has rallied on Friday as the jobs report gave a lot of people hope for the economy.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied during the trading session on Friday, slamming into the $25 region yet again. Keep in mind that this is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and therefore a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. That being said, the market breaking above the $25 level opens up the possibility of challenging the $25.40 level. If we can break above there, then the $26.50 level could be targeted. Keep in mind that silver is a little overextended at the moment, and therefore you do have to be somewhat cautious with the jumping into this market. However, it’s obvious that we have so much upward momentum that it is probably only a matter of time before we take off.
If we do pull back from the area right now, the $24 level will be particularly interesting, not only due to the fact that it’s been important previously, but we also have the 50-Week EMA hanging around in that same area. In other words, I think you have a great potential for value hunters to come back into the market if in fact they get that opportunity.
Pay special attention to the shooting star on Wednesday, because if we can break above there, then I think it’s likely we go much higher. Having said that, it also shows just how much resistance there is just above, so you need to be cautious jumping in right here. Let the rest of the market take that risk, and just join if they can break through the barrier.
Keep in mind that Monday is Labor Day in the United States so that will have a massive influence on many of the markets that influence over, not just the silver futures market. The bond market, which can have a major influence on what happens with silver and precious metals in general, will of course be closed most of the day as well. Because of this, I think we’ve got a situation where you have to be very cautious but also recognize that the longer term momentum could very well pick up over the next couple of days, but it won’t be on Monday more likely than not.
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Silver Continues to See Hesitation
By: Christopher Lewis | August 31, 2023
• The silver market initially gapped to the downside at the open on Thursday, as we have reached the top of the overall consolidation area.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has fallen significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as we broke down below the $25 level. With this, the market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, and therefore we need to look at it through the prism of volatility. The volatility is probably going to pick up quite drastically on Friday, as we have the jobs number coming out, and of course that fluence is where people look for the US dollar to go. The 50-Day EMA sits just below the $24 level and is rising, and therefore I think it offers a significant amount of support. I think a lot of buyers would come into the market based on a value trade, looking at the silver market as one way to play against the US dollar. I think that’s a bit of a stretch at this point, but given enough time we will have a bit of clarity.
After the jobs number, the change in attitude would be something that has to be watched, because quite frankly if the US dollar suddenly takes off, that could be very bad for silver. All things being equal, I do not think that the silver market is going to be easy to hang onto, because the area right around $25.50 is major resistance, and if we can break above that resistance area, then I think we go looking to the $26.50 level. Underneath, if we break down below the $24 level, then we really start to see a lot of negativity. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to be very difficult, so you need to be cautious with your position sizing. Position sizing will be everything here, as volatility will continue to be a major issue in the silver market, which quite frankly is more often the case than not anyway.
We are at the top of the major consolidation area, so therefore I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of it being a little bit of expensive in the short term, but I also think that a complete turnaround in silver seems to be unlikely at this point.
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Silver $SLV - Recall we are looking for the pop of that 'Broadening' Plot I pencilled in from the August low to remain bullish
By: Sahara | August 31, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Recall we are looking for the pop of that 'Broadening' Plot I pencilled in from the August low to remain bullish.
Yet we need to remain cautious whilst under the prev highs, & the lines I have added (Grey) to show the 'Coil' and a Lrgr 'Broadening' Plot...
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Silver $SLV - Fading. Looking tight for a Channel B/Test so more likely an Overthrow?
By: Sahara | August 30, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Fading
Looking tight for a Channel B/Test so more likely an Overthrow?
Esp as we have ominous looking 4Hr/Daily Candles at their Uppr-BB's across the complex.
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$SIL $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Trippin the 'Inv H&S' Targets...
By: Sahara | August 30, 2023
• $SIL $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Trippin the 'Inv H&S' Targets...
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Silver $SLV - Get Ready! Pressuring the Uppr-Band!!
By: Sahara | August 30, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Get Ready!
Pressuring the Uppr-Band!!
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - 'Inv Bull Plot here too to negate the 'Diamond'.
By: Sahara | August 29, 2023
$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - 'Inv Bull Plot here too to negate the 'Diamond'.
— Sahara (@SaharasCharts) August 29, 2023
If it can recover that Dotted Dark Green (Equal to 50/DMA)... pic.twitter.com/OgGKllnRfn
Silver $SLV - Nudgin the Uppr-Band...
By: Sahara | August 29, 2023
$SILVER $SLV - Nudgin the Uppr-Band... pic.twitter.com/2RzaJAwAhk
— Sahara (@SaharasCharts) August 29, 2023
Silver $SLV - Made it to the Uppr-Band of that 'Broadening' Plot. Want to see it push thru...
By: Sahara | August 29, 2023
$SILVER $SLV - Made it to the Uppr-Band of that 'Broadening' Plot.
— Sahara (@SaharasCharts) August 29, 2023
Want to see it push thru... pic.twitter.com/hdrjq2LEcP
Silver $SLV - Has Popped the 'Flag' Now has to pop the 'Handle'
By: Sahara | August 29, 2023
$SILVER $SLV - Has Popped the 'Flag' Now has to pop the 'Handle'.
— Sahara (@SaharasCharts) August 29, 2023
Failure to run now could target the Wkly Purple/MA & failure there will focus on the Lwr 'Handle' Line... pic.twitter.com/0dLYQshOXH
Silver Continues to Kill Time
By: Christopher Lewis | August 29, 2023
• Silver hasn’t really done much over the last few days, perhaps working off the froth of the previous move higher.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
During the Tuesday trading session, the silver market encountered a slight move, primarily attributed to profit-taking maneuvers initiated by participants in the market. This dip in momentum was not entirely unforeseen, particularly when considering the present positioning of silver’s price in relation to the upper threshold of a broader range that characterizes an extended phase of consolidation. Within this context, a measured retreat represents a rational response from both the investor and trader communities.
An essential factor to note is that historical trends and patterns within the silver market indicate that this minor decline might pave the way for an impending rebound in the near future. These kinds of fluctuations contribute to the persistent turbulence that has come to define this market.
An important technical facet to keep a close watch on is the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which emerges as a potential support level for the price of silver. This juncture could potentially serve as a temporary stabilization point, offering the market an opportunity to recalibrate and possibly reverse its current downward trajectory. Nonetheless, a convincing breach of the 50-Day EMA could signify a shift towards the 200-Day EMA—a technical indicator of substantial importance within the market. Although an extensive breach leading to a notable decline towards the $22 level is not the most probable outcome, it remains a scenario that warrants prudent consideration.
Another influential element affecting the silver market is its intricate relationship with the US dollar, characterized by an inverse correlation. In light of the recent speeches by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, there is an anticipation of significant fluctuations in the US dollar over the next 24-48 hours. This anticipation of potential volatility in the dollar might prompt traders currently engaged in the silver trade to take steps to safeguard their gains. Conversely, those who have not yet entered the silver market might opt to postpone their decisions until the following week, allowing for a clearer assessment of Powell’s speeches’ impact on the market.
Given the projected escalation in market volatility, the exercise of caution and prudence is strongly advised. Silver is renowned for its propensity to display more pronounced oscillations in price compared to other assets, underscoring the necessity for market participants to tread thoughtfully and adapt their strategies judiciously to align with the evolving market landscape.
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Silver’s Rally: Consolidation and Potential Breakout Signals
By: Bruce Powers | August 28, 2023
• Silver’s recent rally, breakout, and consolidation signal potential for bullish continuation.
Early last week silver broke out above the internal downtrend line and 200-Day exponential moving average (EMA). It closed above the 200-Day line on multiple days since as the advance further progressed higher. That is a sign of strengthening as underlying demand in silver builds. Subsequently, the rally stalled beginning last Thursday as silver starts to consolidate near the highs of the bounce.
Consolidating Near Trend Highs
A small bullish pennant continuation pattern looks like it might be starting to form in silver. If so, the pattern is still relatively early in its development as a rally occurred only last Friday at 24.37. Today, silver trades inside day, reflecting uncertainty, which follows an outside day last Friday. The retracement off last week’s peak of 24.37 has been mild so far, with silver not yet pulling back to the minimum 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which reflects underlying strength.
Decisive Rally Above 24.37 is Bullish
Although the consolidation pattern is not yet clear a decisive upside breakout above last week’s high of 24.37 is bullish. The question will be whether buying pressure is strong enough to keep silver rising following a breakout, or will it fail as seen on Friday, leading to further consolidation or a deeper pullback. The next upside barrier for silver is at the intersection of the downtrend line and 78.6% retracement at 24.58. However, if the current rally has legs silver should bust through that level. Notice that the price level marked by the downtrend line will decrease going forward given the descending line.
Last Rally Points to a 25.37 Upside Target
Might we see symmetry when comparing the current rally with the most recent that began off the June 23 low of 22.10? That prior advance saw silver climb by 14.3% to a swing high of 25.25 in 19 days. The current advance is up as much as 9.7% as of last week’s high. It will match the previous rally around 25.37. If reached, the advance will trigger a bullish intermediate trend continuation signal on a daily close above the swing high at 25.25 from July 20. Today is the nineth day of the current advance.
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Silver Continues to See the Need to Work Off Froth
By: Christopher Lewis | August 28, 2023
• Silver did very little on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of noise more than anything else.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver experienced a slight downturn in the trading session on Monday, likely driven by the initiation of profit-taking activities. Considering the current price’s closeness to the upper boundary of a broader range within a prolonged consolidation phase, a modest retreat is a sensible course. However, it’s worth highlighting that historical patterns indicate a potential rebound in the near future, contributing to the ongoing market turbulence.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average emerges as a probable support level, furnishing a temporary pause in the market’s trajectory. This interval offers an opportunity for market recalibration. Should the 50-Day EMA be breached, the market might trend towards the 200-Day EMA, a critical technical indicator of notable significance. In an extreme scenario, surpassing this threshold might initiate a descent toward the $22 level. Although this scenario might not be the most likely, it warrants careful consideration.
Furthermore, the interplay between the silver market and the US dollar is worth noting, particularly the inverse correlation between the two. With Jerome Powell’s speeches on the horizon, it’s anticipated that the US dollar will undergo substantial fluctuations within the next 24 hours. Consequently, traders already involved in the silver trade might opt to secure their gains, whereas those not yet engaged could find it judicious to delay decisions until the following week. Given the predicted upsurge in market volatility, exercising prudence is highly advisable, especially due to silver’s inherent propensity for more pronounced price oscillations compared to other assets.
To conclude, the minor dip observed in the silver market during Friday’s trading session corresponds with profit-taking endeavors. This response is logical, given the imminent Jackson Hole Symposium and its impactful speeches. The potential influence of Jerome Powell and the current price’s proximity to a notable range peak rationalize a modest retraction. The 50-Day EMA presents a possible support juncture, allowing the market a breather for adjustment. While the 200-Day EMA holds significance, a breach might signify further declines. The reciprocal connection between silver and the US dollar emphasizes the importance of Jerome Powell’s speeches, potentially heightening the dollar’s volatility. Hence, proceeding with caution and potentially deferring actions until the weekend’s market fluctuations settle is a prudent approach. Given silver’s inherent volatility, maintaining vigilance remains paramount.
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Silver Prices Forecast: XAG/USD Resilience Defies Powell’s Hawkish Tone
By: James Hyerczyk | August 28, 2023
• While the short-term outlook for silver trends bearish, Powell’s already-priced remarks leave room for a potential XAG/USD short-covering rally.
Highlights
• Silver sees unanticipated strength Monday, tied to subdued Treasury yields and a steady U.S. Dollar.
• Despite Powell’s hawkish tone on rates, XAG/USD is showing resilience in the face of potential hikes.
• Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report eyed as a pivotal indicator for the country’s economic trajectory.
Silver Prices Firm Amid Macro Factors
Silver prices firmed unexpectedly on Monday, largely due to subdued Treasury yields and a stable U.S. Dollar. This resilience appeared despite the hawkish tone set by Jerome Powell concerning interest rates.
Powell’s Remarks and Market Sentiment
At the Jackson Hole symposium, Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, alluded to potential further rate hikes. These hikes, motivated by prevailing inflation worries, accentuate the current strength of the U.S. economy. Powell’s alertness to the ongoing inflation scenario hinted at the necessity for further tightening of monetary policies. He commented, “Inflation remains too high,” and did not shy away from suggesting the possibility of future rate elevations to ensure inflation aligns with the Federal objectives. Surprisingly, markets displayed minimal disturbance post his speech, implying that traders might have anticipated this stance.
Uncertainties and Upcoming Data
The path ahead for silver prices is cloudy. Accelerating inflation combined with the robust U.S. economy could signal another rate adjustment as soon as November. Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Federal Reserve supported this view, suggesting that controlling inflation might demand another rate hike, subsequently followed by a stable phase. Traders are eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday, hoping it provides deeper insights into the economy’s status.
Short-term Outlook for Silver
Despite looming economic reports and potential rate adjustments, the immediate forecast for silver seems to tilt towards the bearish side. With interest rates potentially on the ascent, assets like silver, which don’t yield, might lose their shine. However, it’s essential to consider the likelihood of a robust short-covering rally, especially since much of Powell’s Friday declarations seem to have been preemptively factored into current prices.
Technical Analysis
4-Hour Silver (XAG/USD)
XAG/USD’s current 4-hour price sits at 24.20, a marginal increase from its prior value of 24.18. Comparing it with the moving averages, the current price resides comfortably above both the 200-4H moving average of 23.85 and the 50-4H moving average of 23.39. This suggests the market currently showcases an upward momentum. The 14-4H RSI is 64.97, indicating a stronger momentum but still under the overbought territory.
With the main support area placed between 22.70 to 22.28 and the main resistance area ranging from 25.00 to 25.27, the price stands closer to the midpoint of these two zones. Conclusively, the market’s sentiment for Silver is moderately bullish in the short term.
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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 26, 2023
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 24234 and is trading up about 0.80% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. At present, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in August is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 22265 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 24972.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23515 and overhead resistance forming above at 24895. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 17th at 25475, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 14th, which has been a move of .0942%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
This market is trading below that high of May which was 26435 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 22700 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
COT - Commitments of Traders in Silver Futures Market Report
By: CME Group | August 25, 2023
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Silver Has a Strong Week
By: Christopher Lewis | August 25, 2023
• Silver has rallied rather nicely during the course of the week, having several massive days after bouncing to break through the 50-Week EMA.
Silver Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week, breaking through the 50-Day EMA and reaching toward a $24.50 level. At this point, it looks like we could continue to go higher but we also have to get through the speeches at the Jackson Hole symposium. Once we break the $25 level however, things get a little bit more difficult and it’ll be interesting to see if we can keep up the momentum. If we do, the market could finally break out our reach toward the $30 level, but I don’t think it’s going to be easy to do.
On the other hand, we could get a bit of a pullback and that would make a certain amount of sense considering that we have been consolidating for several months now. The 200-Week EMA is sitting just above the $22 level, making for what I think will be a “floor in the market” going forward. As long as we can stay above there, silver does have a chance to continue going higher over the longer term. However, if we were to break down below that level, it would open up a significant amount of selling in the possibility of silver dropping all the way down to the $20 level before it’s all said and done.
Keep in mind the silver also has major industrial demand attached to it, so a lot of this could come down to the “green new deal” that people are talking about when it comes to the electrification of everything in the United States. That being said, the math doesn’t work out on that so one has to wonder how long this right will continue.
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$SIL $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Back at their 'Diamonds' Which need to be negated...
By: Sahara | August 24, 2023
• $SIL $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - Back at their 'Diamonds' Which need to be negated...
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Silver Pulls Back Slightly
By: Christopher Lewis | August 24, 2023
• Silver has pulled back slightly during the trading session on Thursday, after ripping higher for the last couple of days.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver has pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like a little bit of profit-taking is starting to happen. This does make a certain amount of sense considering that the Jackson Hole Symposium is going to have a slew of speeches on Friday they can have a major influence on what happens next. After all, Jerome how has the ability to kill this market if he gets too hawkish. I think that is a very real possibility, and the fact that we are near the top of the overall range of the longer-term consolidation suggests that a pullback does make a certain amount of sense.
Ultimately, I think the 50 day EMA underneath could also come into the picture, offering a bit of support, allowing the market to get a little bit of a breather, and by extension allowing the market to reset itself. If we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s very possible that the market could find itself breaking down toward the 200-Day EMA, which obviously is a major technical indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. If we were to break down below there, then things could unravel all the way back down toward the $22 level. While I don’t necessarily expect that to happen, it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind.
Furthermore, you also need to keep in mind that the market is negatively correlated with the US dollar, so that could come into play as well. With Jerome Powell speaking, one would have to think that the US dollar is going to be very noisy over the next 24 hours, so if you are already involved in this trade, you are probably taking profits. If you are not involved in the silver market, you are probably going to be wise to wait until Monday to make a move, as the markets in general certainly are going to be very noisy, and therefore could be very dangerous if you are not careful. Silver of course is always quite a bit more volatile than the rest of them.
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Silver $SLV - Still Tackling the Dotted-Blue (20/DMA Equivalent)...
By: Sahara | August 23, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Still Tackling the Dotted-Blue (20/DMA Equivalent)...
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Silver $SLV - Pre-Market is Pushing thru its Daily EMA's...
By: Sahara | August 23, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Pre-Market is Pushing thru its Daily EMA's...
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$SILJ $SILVER #Miners - So far...
By: Sahara | August 23, 2023
• $SILJ $SILVER #Miners - So far...
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A perfect storm is brewing in the silver market as the expected easing from the Chinese government to support its faltering economy is squeezing shorts in the marketplace and driving prices significantly higher.
September Silver last traded at $24.355 an ounce, up nearly 4% on the day. The precious metal is seeing its best day since mid-July as it regains critical technical levels.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity trading at Saxo Bank, said silver’s current short squeeze started building last week when the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) intervened in currency markets to support the yuan after it hit a 16-year low against the U.S. dollar.
“The stronger yuan forced a focus change in copper, and with that also silver,” Hansen said.
Analysts said that the central bank’s easing measure at the start of the week could provide further industrial support to the precious metal. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-23/Silver-prices-squeezed-4-higher-after-Chinese-currency-intervention.html #silver $SIVR $SIL $SLV $PSLV $SILJ $NAK $AGQ
Silver Short-term Cycle Analysis
By: Nautilus Research | August 22, 2023
• #silver Silver short-term cycle.
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Silver Continues to Rally on Softer US Dollar
By: Christopher Lewis | August 22, 2023
• The US dollar has been softening a bit lately, and that seems to be a catalyst for the silver market to go higher.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver continues to see upward pressure, as it looks like we are trying to reach toward the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA is closer to the $23.65 level, if we can break above there is likely that the market could go looking to the $24 level. Above that you have the $25 level which is the top of the overall consolidation area. Remember, silver is highly sensitive to the US dollar, as it has a huge negative correlation. If the US dollar continues to soften, it will drive the price of silver higher.
On the other hand, if the US dollar starts to turn things around and strengthen again, the market will then go looking to the downside in this market, reaching toward the $22.50 level, perhaps even down to the $22 level. If we were to break down below that level, it would open up a significant drop down to the $20 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we rallied from to kick off all of the positivity that we had seen.
All things being equal, I think this is a market that you need to be very cautious with, as the volatility is extraordinarily difficult in this market. The position sizing is crucial, and therefore you don’t want to jump “all in” into the silver market as it can be quite wild at times. Nonetheless, it does look like we are trying to get to the top of the overall consolidation range, and therefore I think we have a potential sizable run. However, if we were to break above the $25.50 level, then the market could go up to the $26.50 level where we had peaked during the month of May.
All things being equal, this is a market that continues to be noisy so therefore you have to be very cautious, and you also have to recognize that this is a situation where the currency crosswinds will continue to be a major thing to pay attention to, so remember not to trade silver in a vacuum, as it can be highly sensitive.
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Silver Price Surges with Bullish Breakout, Targets Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | August 21, 2023
• Silver’s recent bullish reversal gains traction, bolstered by a hammer pattern and a weekly breakout.
Turns out that last Tuesday’s low around 22.21 remains the retracement low for silver. That low day consisted of a bullish hammer bottoming candlestick pattern. Although it took a few days, by Friday silver had closed above Tuesday’s high of 22.70 and confirmed the bullish reversal. Today, we see upside follow-through with silver accelerating higher with a wide range green candle that is set to close near the highs of the day. Further, today triggered a bullish weekly breakout for silver and the reaction so far has been positive.
Silver Shows Relative Strength Compared to Gold
Last Tuesday’s low successfully tested support for silver around the prior swing low at 22.10. It ended with a higher swing low of 22.21. This price behavior shows relative strength for silver when compared to gold as gold fell well below its most recent swing low from June during its current correction. We now have a potential double bottom in silver but not until a breakout signal occurs above the recent interim swing high at 2.25.
Silver’s Rally Surpasses Key Resistance Lines
Today’s rally in silver is not only showing strength within the day’s range but it has also lifted silver to above the 200-Day EMA, above the long-term downtrend line, as well as the 12-Day EMA and short-term downtrend lines. A daily close above either will be an additional sign(s) of strength. Note how the 12-Day EMA converged with the short internal downtrend line. The market is recognizing the 12-Day line and therefore going forward it should do well showing short-term dynamic support for the developing uptrend.
First Minor Target is 23.36
Silver will be hitting a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 23.36, which is the next near-term target. Once complete, the next higher target for silver is the 50% retracement at 23.72. Nevertheless, once there is a daily close above the downtrend line, which could happen today, the larger bullish pattern that has been developing may kick in again.
Watching for Large Bull Flag Breakout Continuation
Silver formed a large bull flag type pattern that has been developing over several years. The pattern is not a perfect bull flag, but the underlying message is similar – a period of sharp strong buying, followed by a retracement that forms a declining parallel channel. It therefore has the potential for another eventual acceleration higher from last week’s lows. More will be written on this pattern in silver in the coming days.
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Silver $SLV - Got the turn. Yet still has to recover the Daily EMA's...
By: Sahara | August 21, 2023
• $SILVER $SLV - Got the turn.
Yet still has to recover the Daily EMA's...
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A Brief History of The Health Support Uses of SilverFor thousands of years silver has been used as a healing agent by civilizations throughout the world. Its medical, preservative and restorative powers can be traced as far back as the ancient Greek and Roman Empires. Long before the development of modern pharmaceuticals, silver was employed as a germicide. Consider these interesting facts:
Silver Re-DiscoveredNot until the late 1800's did western scientists re-discover what had been known for thousands of years - that silver is a powerful germ fighter. Medicinal silver compounds were then developed and silver became commonly used as a medicine. By the early part of the 1900s, the use of silver was becoming widespread. By 1940 there were approximately four dozen different silver compounds on the market. Although there were a few flare-ups of negative publicity regarding medicinal silver in the early 1900s, (due to the overuse of certain types of protein-bound silver compounds causing a discoloration of the skin called argyria and due to a supply of improperly prepared and unstable silver) reputable medical journal reports demonstrated that a properly prepared colloidal dispersion of silver was completely suitable with no adverse side effects. T. H. Anderson Wells reported in the Lancet (February 16th, 1918) that a preparation of colloidal silver was "used intravenously. . . without any irritation of the kidneys and with no pigmentation of the skin. " New knowledge of body chemistry gave rise to the enormous array of applications for colloidal disinfectants and medicines and for on-going research into the capabilities and possibilities for silver colloids. However, Silver's "new-found" fame as a superior infection-fighting agent was short lived. How Silver Lost FavorDuring the 1930s, synthetically manufactured drugs began to make their appearance and the profits, together with the simplicities of manufacturing this new source of treatment, became a powerful force in the marketplace. There was much excitement over the new 'wonder drugs' and at that time, no antibiotic-resistant strains of disease organisms had surfaced. Silver quickly lost its status to modern antibiotics. On-going Uses of Colloidal SilverThe use of some silver preparations in mainstream medicine survived. Among them are the use of dilute silver nitrate in newborn babies' eyes to protect from infection and the use of "Silvadine," a silver based salve, in virtually every burn ward in America to kill infection. A new silver based bandage has recently been approved by the FDA and licensed for sale. Other uses that did not lose favor include:
But for the most part, with the discovery of pharmaceutical antibiotics, interest in silver as an anti-microbial agent declined almost to the point of extinction. The Resurgence of Silver in MedicineThe return of silver to conventional medicine began in the 1970s. The late Dr. Carl Moyer, chairman of Washington University's Department of Surgery, received a grant to develop better methods of treatment for burn victims. Dr. Margraf, as the chief biochemist, worked with Dr. Moyer and other surgeons to find an antiseptic strong enough, yet safe to use over large areas of the body. Dr. Margraf investigated 22 antiseptic compounds and found drawbacks in all of them. Reviewing earlier medical literature, Dr. Margraf found continual references to the use of silver. However, since concentrated silver nitrate is both corrosive and painful, he diluted the silver to a .5 percent solution and found that it killed invasive burn bacteria and permitted wounds to heal. Importantly, resistant strains did not appear. But, silver nitrate was far from ideal. So research continued for more suitable silver preparations. Silver sulphadiazine (Silvadene, Marion Laboratories) is now used in 70 percent of burn centers in America. Discovered by Dr. Charles Fox of Columbia University, sulphadiazine has also been successful in treating cholera, malaria and syphilis. It also stops the herpes virus, which is responsible for cold sores, shingles and worse. The history and uses of colloidal silver are well known and documented. They can be researched easily on the Internet through search engines and any colloid forum, bulletin boards or blogs. We cannot link to them or publish them here because Federal Law prohibits any claims or testimonials associating our products or product ingredients with any disease states. Keep in mind that the particle surface area of our colloidal silver product, MesoSilver, is the highest ever tested. This means it is the most effective of any colloidal silver product ever made. With not a single serious adverse event ever reported, it is also one of the safest supplements on the market today.
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The Silver Price Will Rise 4.83 Times as Far as Gold Pricehttp://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-prices/2008/12/silver-price-will-rise-483-times-as-far.html Unless you understand this one principle, you understand nought about precious metals' bull markets: monetary demand, and monetary demand alone, drives both gold AND silver. It's not Indian wedding demand or the popularity of silver jewelry that drives their prices, but sheer monetary demand, holding them as "money" because the alternatives -- national currencies -- are clearly failing. WHEREFORE, before this bull market ends, you will need only 16 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, which means from here that the silver price will rise 4.83 times as far as the gold price. Forget the siren song of the "gold-only" bugs, who have fallen for the myths of the money interest: both silver and gold are money, and always will be. GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLESeptember 3rd, 2010 by Egon von Greyerz GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLEFundamental and technical factors for gold are now in total harmony and gold is entering a virtuous circle that will drive the price up at its fastest pace since this bull market started in 1999.
Gold trendWe expect gold to start a substantial rise now which will continue for 5-10 months before any major correction. Gold's technical picture is extremely strong with a continuous rising pattern of higher highs and higher lows with the steepness of the curve increasing. From much higher levels we are likely to see a correction that could last up to a year before the next rise which will last several years before we see a significant peak. Once gold has topped we do not expect the same kind of decline as after the 1980 peak since gold is likely to become part of a future reserve currency. At that point gold will be a solid but unexciting investment with very little upside potential. But that is likely to be a few years away. In spite of a 5 times increase in the value of gold or an 80% decline against many currencies and stockmarkets in the last 11 years, most investors own no gold and still do not understand the importance and value of gold. In a world of constant money printing and credit creation leading to devaluing currencies and devaluing assets, gold reflects stability and is virtually the only store of value that cannot be destroyed by governments. The average asset manager, fund manager, pension fund or private individual owns no physical gold and at best has a very small exposure to some precious metals stocks. And in spite of this gold has gone up over 400% in 11 years. How is that possible? For the simple reason with the relatively modest demand that we have seen in the last few years, there is not enough physical gold even at these levels. The increase in demand that we have seen has most probably been satisfied by central banks leasing or lending their gold to the bullion banks. Central banks supposedly own 30,000 tons of gold but unofficial estimates of their real holdings are at 15,000 tons or less. So what are the factors that are likely to lead to a major rise in the gold price? We have for several years outlined in our Newsletters the problems in the world that inevitably will lead to massive money printing and a hyperinflationary depression (see for example "Alea Iacta Est" and "There Will Be No Double Dip…" on the Matterhorn Asset Management website). There are three insurmountable problems:
The effect of this massive $20 trillion infusion has been ephemeral since we are entering the autumn of 2010 with virtually every single economic indicator and statistic in the US deteriorating rapidly. With interest rates already at zero there is no ammunition left but one. And it is this specific last bullet that will be used to infinity in the next few years and starting very soon, namely UNLIMITED MONEY PRINTING. Every single area of the US economy will need support or printed money, whether it is the federal government, the states, the municipalities, banks, pension funds, insurance companies, the unemployed, corporations, health care, housing market, commercial real estate, individuals, etc, etc, etc. The list is endless and many other countries will follow. Before we talk about gold in hyperinflationary terms, let's look at where gold is likely to reach in today's money. Three realistic Gold targets: $6,000 - $7,000 - $10,000:
The three historical comparisons above (and see chart below) would put gold anywhere from $6,000 to $10,000 and this is without inflation, or more likely hyperinflation. In a hyperinflationary environment, the price gold will go to is really irrelevant since it depends on how much money is printed. In the Weimar Republic for example gold went to DM 100 trillion. What is more important is that gold is likely to go up at least 5 times from today without inflation and with hyperinflation gold will protect investors against the total destruction of paper money and many other assets. Wealth ProtectionGold must only be held in its physical form and the holder of gold must have direct access to the gold. We consider ETFs, gold in a bank (whether allocated or unallocated), fractal ownership of physical gold, futures or any other form of paper gold as very risky and a totally unsatisfactory method for owning gold. Physical gold should preferably be stored outside your country of residence and outside the banking system. The holder must have direct access to the vaults where the gold is stored. SilverSilver has been lagging gold since its peak at over $21 in 2008. For the last few months the gold/silver ratio has been consolidating between 58 and 71. The ratio is currently around 64 and is likely to start a move down to new lows below the 2006 low at just 44. So this is very good news for silver which is likely to outpace gold substantially in the next few years. Silver is probably the most undervalued precious metal today and has great potential. But there are many caveats for silver:
StockmarketsAt the beginning of July this year we sent out a message to investors that, based on our proprietary indicators, we expected stockmarkets to finish the correction up at the end of July and resume the major downtrend in August. We also said that gold would start its major rise in August. And this is exactly what has happened so far. We now expect major falls in all stockmarkets worldwide over a sustained period. We would not be surprised to see the Dow down to the 1,000 area (in today's terms) before this bear market in over. But it will not be a straight line and there will be extreme volatility. When hyperinflation sets in, stockmarkets will have a major but temporary surge. The only stocks that investors should hold are precious metals stocks and possibly some resource and food stocks. But it must be remembered that stocks do not represent the same degree of wealth preservation as physical precious metals held directly by the investor. CurrenciesCurrencies should in the next few years be looked upon as a necessary evil and not as a store of value. All currencies will continue to decline against gold, just as they have in the last 11 years and in the last 100 years. Due to money printing by most governments, we will have a fierce game of competitive devaluations by virtually all central banks. We have seen the Euro and the pound weaken substantially and the next currency the speculators will jump on is the US dollar. The dollar is grossly overvalued, partly due to the weak Euro, and is likely to weaken significantly due to the problems in the US economy. Currencies only reflect relative value and not absolute value since they can be and are printed until they reach their intrinsic value of zero. It is a fallacy to measure the value of a currency relative to another currency since they are all losing value. Currencies should only be measured against real money which is gold. This is the only method that reveals governments' deceitful actions in destroying the value of paper money. Therefore it is a mug's game to speculate or invest in currencies since they will all decline in an extremely volatile and unpredictable market. So are there currencies which are likely to perform better on a relative basis for funds that have to be held in paper money? We believe that Norwegian kroner, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Australian Dollar and Renminbi will perform relatively better than many other currencies. Government Bond MarketsThe bond market is the biggest bubble in financial markets worldwide, in our opinion. Investors around the world are worried about the state of financial markets and therefore believe that government bonds represent a safe haven. These investors will receive the most enormous shock on two accounts. Firstly, no government will be able to repay the debts outstanding. So there will either be government defaults, moratoria, or money printing that totally destroys the value of the bonds. Secondly, interest rates are likely to go up significantly to at least 10-15%, totally destroying the value of the bonds. ConclusionWe are now entering a period when most major asset classes and in particular stocks, bonds and currencies are starting a major decline. Since most financial assets in the world are invested in these three categories plus real estate which will also decline, we are likely to experience major shocks and crises in the financial system and the world economy. Wealth protection is now more important than probably at any other time in history. Physical gold and possibly other precious metals directly controlled by the investor will be a vital part of a wealth preservation portfolio. |
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