Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 14, 2023

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 22895 is immediately trading down about 4.76% for the year from last year's settlement of 24040. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 20850 while it is still trading above last month's close of 22450 implying near-term strength.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during August. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Silver COMEX Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2020. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020 which signaled the rally would continue into 2021. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 23100 and support forming below at 22110. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 20850, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 17th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 2nd, which has been a move of 10.26%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

This market is trading well beneath that high of May which was 26435 by more than 10 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 20504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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