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we're we actually in a bear mkt this year, or are we starting one now?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pc42!d20,2!f][vc60][iub9!uh9,3!ud20...
notice the macd on the above chart making a new low...and the extreme oversold conditions on the weekly. implying we need to becareful of calling a bounce here a bottom
yes, my position is changing slightly...but that's what happens when you step back and look at the bigger picture.
i think we could be bottoming, but we won't know for sure until the retest..
i think if we have not hit bottom, we are near..
positive divergence play still possible:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3743159
technically, we should bounce monday...the thing is...i think we have to be careful here...and intitally look at any bounce as a relief bounce still.
we still may have a some bouncing around to do while the the bottom forms here...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3743347
anyway..i took this one on the chin and exited. will re-group and look for another opportunity monday...
btw, i don't know if any of you also maintain an LT portfolio. if so, i think MSFT is a good buy soon. the one time $3 dividend AND regualr yearly dividend is really good hedge that should offer enough downside protection to make that a nice investment...
Bliss - I respectfully suggest you also read this post by JWG http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01233&read=9
In my opinion, there is just no way we will have a bull market. We are now solidly in wave 3 from the all time 2000 highs, with the ABC correction, (sucker's rally) wave 2 ending early this year.
To navigate the difficult times ahead, I highly recommend everyone read John Mauldin's new book, Bulls Eye Investing (available Amazon). Even short term traders need to understand the longer term trend.
Dimension - Yes, I am still 100% long and I think we have finally hit bottom, although we could bounce around within Friday's trading range for a day or two before the new bull market begins. jwg has told us we should expect certain indicators to reach certain limits (ndx/vxn ratio below 50, qqq/vxn ratio below 1.25) and he was right. Now those limits have been reached, so the coast is clear for a major rally to begin.
to all readers of this board : i have moved now to my new
'protected member forum' Raging Bull, which allows me the
'unlimited posting' during my day trading and also is a protected
board, where others would have to apply for a 'join request'
with their RB username/alias.
if you're not a memeber you can read the board, but not write
any messages.
if you read the board only make sure, you always click the
'refresh list' button, so that you can read also the latest
and newest messages.
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01233&startfrom=1
thank you for your support
jwg
grommitt : re your question 'elder' + 'belkin' rule , here is my
reply :
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01233&read=9
this is my 'protected member forum' :
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01233&startfrom=1
jwg
Let me try that again, 3 yr:
Buzz
Here's the 3 year version so you see what I was looking at:
Gap down and the rally midday Monday into Fed.
Buzz
Here's the 3 year version so you see what I was looking at:
Gap down and the rally midday Monday into Fed.
Buzz
Well, I didn't think we'd get there all in one day:
As posted yesterday
Buzz
jwg, great idea. I think it would be cool if you add the RB link to the 'Board Info' on this board, just above the 'Options' line. That way posters here can quickly view the RB board and still post here. Your ideas and info will stand alone on the RB board and you'll still have 18 posts per day here. Thanks for considering my request.
didn't know, or i forgot, always friday is happy hour...here is
my new board, which is a 'protected member forum' with unlimited
postings per day.
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB01233&board=CLB01233&read=&startf...
Have a nice weekend everybody------You win some and you loose some.......live and trade another day.
and always remember to say THANKS to Dimension, Xe2dy and jwg for their hard work,
again, thanks.
tq...thanks, looks like a handy tool, I'll explore it more this weekend.
GL, Greg
Looks like about 6-8 points lower on the s&p before a bounce. Probably complete Monday, but I'm not risking it. I'll wait for a positive divergence on the 60min before entering.
mr natural,
i usually use this when i'm scalping cubes, spy, dia intraday...
http://www.21stcenturyfutures.com/page/tcf/aboutus/highfive.html
i ignored it today and lost $.16.
a nice little hammer formed on the 3:40 candle (5 min), got out of short at 32.74. (+ .35)
oh the pain....we are getting the 'flush'...sooner than later. when all bulls have thrown in the towel,its time to buy....
i think we are bottoming finally...maybe a bit more and possibly not until fed...but technically, i think this is the type of move i was harping about...
wtch close to see if big money steps in, or whether we have to wait until tues or wed...
NDX/VXN getting interesting http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX:$VXN,uu[l,a]dallyyay[dc][p][vc60]&pref=G
S&P May 10 low breached but at much less volume. The volume was 2+ billion that day. Today it is about 1.6. I believe this is very bullish. I hope I am interpretting Ord right. http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
More over today is 90% volume day (90% vol is up vol or 90% is down vol) which is said to mark the reversal.
Any opinion on this ?
I stayed flat today...fingers still bleeding from trying to catch the falling knive yesterday, best to wait for a confirmed reversal...hard to tell how traders will react when they/we look over our charts this weekend...lol.
my last post for today...wow, wow, this is serious stuff folks,
the indu plunging more than 300 points in two days...boy,
somebody out there must be really concerned...
but am really convinced a technical bounce will come the next
trading days...was thinking we would have a bounce today, well
didn't work out....
have a great weekend all...
jwg
stopped out of qqq long at 32.98 (-.18). went short at 35.10 after 2nd downward break of 33.33 to 33.11 consolidation. short not doing bad, but the long bothers me. tried to catch falling knives today. there's usually a reason the trin's @ 3.0:) lesson learned...
BuzzOnDaBeach - maybe your Sept 03 low target is correct. Getting closer and closer...
take a lost....out of here. licking my wounds
the heavyweights dragging naz/ndx down...intc/-3.4 % , csco/ -2.5 % , qcom/- 1.4 % , msft/ - 0.6 %....
Add 500 QQQ and SMH
the indicators are at EXtreme.
grommitt : i will answer your question over the weekend, don't
have too many postings left...
o.k. folks, i checked market internals, bit frustrating the
internals, unfortunately not much improvement on the indices,
and the techs intel down almost 3 % and cisco down 2.5 % and
msft down 0.6 %....so 'prices' have changed here to the worth
from the opening prices....
the vola-indicators at least indicating some selling pause,
so i do not expect this market to sell off like y-day into
the close....
but at this moment it also does not look like we'll get some
kind of good technical bounce....at this moment i mean....
could still change...we just have to watch it...
ndx should not fall below 1330 or close below...
I tend to think that Xe2dy is right ( please see Xedy charts), the market may go down a few more days before we see ST bottom.
3pm is mutual funds time to send in orders. Made 8 trades today, worked my butt off for 7 cents profit, lol. flat now until things clear up.
Ah, my friend, self discipline is the key to capital preservation. LOL !!! I have a buy back stop loss at 33.18 break even including com. and I'm not going to move it, this time! LOL !!! If the market lets me, I'll hold over the weekend. BTW, be, have a great weekend! GL
ticks registered negative 1500 and SMH goes down only ten cents, all of my indicators say....be patient !
I refused the temptation to add more shares to SMH, infact my finger is on the trigger ready to get out.
feeling some pain on the long position. -22cents QQQ.
i'm sorry 33.16 is the weekly s2 not s1...
Elder, Belkin Rules?? Could you please explain briefly the weekly 26ema Elder Rule and the weekly 200ma Belkin Rule? Thanks!
nice tight consolidation on qqq now. could be set up for explosive move either way. overcooked trin, solid tick and oversold readings means a probable upward breakout. thinking the big boys press the green buttons this afternoon. long @ 33.16 moments ago on a retest of weekly s1. stop @ 32.98. will buy more if she breaks out. target daily pivot @ 33.87. will consider hedging or getting short on a break down of consolidation...
the INTRA DAY trin , put / call ratio are at EXTREME high, and the tick is improving ( and is much better than yesterday ), I think the market will improve soon.
tick continues to hold in an uptrend...that is leaving me with a good feeling thus far...fridays have not poduced many ralllies this year but who knows, we could get one today. if not, i it patiently for next eek
also, last i chkd, cpc still climbing.
for LT traders, do not despair...according to dow theory...no breakdown is likely,as utils printed new high today
Hahaha, here is my hat.....Iam collecting my 10% profit....LOL
the tick is forming a positve slope while the trin slope is 0, the QQQ will move up a QUARTER from here
www.bigcharts.com
Mr Natural, what site did you post that chart from? Thanks
NDX...intraday support at 1332, descending tops suggest it may not hold, P/C/R at 1.53
Several charts.
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[j34115614,y]&r=3779>
[j34115615,y]&r=7044>
[j34115645,y]&r=3816>
[j34115647,y]&r=4510>
[j34117251,y]&r=7200>
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