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one reason it may be wise to take any intial bounce as a relief for now:
over the weekend i posted a bit of analysis on CBOE put/call in which i argued the recent bottom was likely to be revisted. i'd like show a similar relationship between the Equity put/call and the SPX. You will clearly see the inverse relationship between the 10 MA readings of the CPC and tops and bottoms on these charts. right now, we are seeing readings that have marked the previous two tops. this implies that we may have a bit more downside in the weeks ahead. The counter that could be made to this argument is that perhaps we have made our to already (Aug 2nd) and should resume the upward move now. even so, ideally, based on this chart, we'd like to see a readings near .80 before commiting money in anything longer than a few days. This is put one "indicator" that needs to be considered amongst others...
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Soon, we shall be able to buy i think...soon can be days to 3 weeks away...it's all about when we get a confirmation...
That was a blow up from a 3 year which is why some of the TL's are a bit off. You should also note the declining RSI trend by connecting the last 3 lows. And like you said, the -DI isn't near an extreme yet. Here's the broader picture. Keep in mind a TL isn't valid, theoretically, unless you have 3 pts. to connect:
Buzz
We closed below the March, May, and July lows. We are also very close to the October 2003 low. I think it's very likely we return to the September, 2003 lows of 1308. The last hour today was the first sign of panic I've seen. I would like to see more panic on higher volume before committing to a relief rally. QQQ 32.60/NDX 1310ish. The p/c ratio is still not at an extreme. Comments?:
Buzz
