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i like what i see.... : see charts
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$CPC,uu[e,a]dhhannay[db][p][...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$CPC,uu[p,a]hellynay[pb400!c20!...
http://www.cboe.com/MktData/default.asp
the rally-monkey is on stand-by....lol
reduced 500 shares of SMH +12 cents.
1st hour on NDX showing, 1 to 5 a/d on ndx, and 1/9 u/d, i'd say there's good reason to feel that way.
i think the NDX/Composite will need to lead us out of a bottom while INDU and SPX follow...similar to previous bottoms...FIFO, first in, first out...
is it starting today? maybe..if not, i think we may be very close...
one before i run..
-VIX = buy
-early P/C = buy (in particular, look at the index activity...hence my rational of possible hedging of long positions by institution)
-TRIN @2.94
-TICK printed over 1000 a few min ago..that should be take us the other way now...and infact, 5min-MA of first hour trending up..
nibble..nibble...and swimming against the tide i suppose.
have a good day..
Out for small 4 pt gain on the mini NQ. Looking to re enter when Trin and Trinq come down some.
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Testing the edit feature
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Hey JWG just edit your posts for 15 minutes. Will save you on your 18.
i feel kind of comfortable today for a technical bounce re the
vola-indicators...not so much the AD/DE issues + Up/Down volume
at this moment on all indices...
with the vola-indicators i can see on my radar-screen about 30
to 45 min ahead...but accuracy not so good...however, am feeling
comfortable, and so should you....
bingo...INDU has joined the party in printing a new low of the year...
everything about today is extreme...buy opporunity is at hand imo. i will be nibbling at some IT plays...and..
early options activity is seeing ALOT of calls...it is possible these are institutions hedging their dip buying. i say that, because that is my thinking here as well :))
buying QQQ 34@.75 to add to existing position
good luck all...overall, i think it is become less risky to start looking for bargains on the long side...
Trade restrictions, trades not allowed. Why is this?
SMH is holding up well indicating that QQQ may not go any lower. Heavy volume sell( Capitulation) at open indicating that the market may be making a slow rebound
well, well , market internals both nyse + naz/ndx look bad at
this moment...
so caution still advised...
1330/1332 is the last good support....(ndx)
Money is shifting to BONDs (TLT is up 1.50 this morning).
An article on Active Trader magazine (July issue) written by a Harrvard Ph.d. predicts that the Bond market BULL will begin running soon.( after 20 year bearish)
you got that right jwg!
holding my calls though
the nasdaq futures doing better than the indu futures, but at
the moment the indu drags the naz/ndx kind of down...
we just watch it...market internals...
hehe 'kaarv'...how you doing...tough, tough market...good luck
buy long 1000 shares SMH and qqq with tight mental stoploss.
we closed the day y-day with trin 3.10, and now trin 3.30 , VIX
at 19.0...there should be a bounce (technical)
buy ndx/call @ 1336 ( mental SL ) ndx mini-fut/open-end/
strike 1310 / lev. 12.8 / AAHDE133 ; we are in gap-fill area
SPX hits new low for the year. about 35 more pts and the Dow will be there also...
good morning folks, poor employment numbers will direct this
market today...plus the still high crude oil prices...
NDX E.O.D. y-day : 1353.50
1372/1382 = broad resistance zone
1354/1356 = R
1338/1348 = gap fill area Oct-2003, acts also as support area
1330/1332 = S
1413.50 = ema200 daily
1428.00 = ema26 weekly 'elder rule'
1479.00 = ma200 weekly 'belkin rule' re bear market
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next week Aug-10 + Aug-11 = Bradley turn date
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some charts courtesy 'public charts'
spx / vix ratio also needs to come more down still to
approx 50-area :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=%24SPX%3A%24VIX%2Cuu%5Bw%2Ca%5D...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$spx,uu[r,a]whllyyay[df][pc26][...
the target ndx weekly was 1350 for me, that number was/will
reach today :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]waclyiay[dd][pd20,2!c26!f][vc60][iut!La12,26...
qqq daily , buy + sell indicators :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=QQQ,uu[p,a]daclyyay[dc][pc200!c...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=QQQ,uu[h,a]eblannay[d126][p]...
ndx daily :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$NDX,uu[g,a]daclynay[dc][pd20,2...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=%24NDX%2Cuu%5Bw%2Ca%5Ddaclyyay%...
NAZ BPI :
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$BPNDX,uu[r,a]dacayyay[dc][pb2!...
qqq/vxn ratio : number now approx 1.29...needs a bit more down
to approx 1.25 / 1.20
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=qqq,uu[w,a]daclynay[dc][pc5!d20...
ndx/vxn ratio should also drift a bit more down, approx 50.0..
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$ndx:$vxn,uu[w,a]dallynay[dc][p...
good trading today.....
jwg
sell NQ/short @ 1339.50 (buy @ 1360) = + 20.50 points , minus
my losses from those two ndx/calls total 9.5 points losses,
equals net gain = + 11 points
utilityman : re your question y-day, I did not have any more
posts available to answer your question...
re ndx/call end of trading y-day :
ndx/call/1358.50 /SL = 1354/ loss - 4.5 points
NDTHG.C / August / ITM / 1325 strike
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ndx/long/ mini-future/open-end/strike 1310/ lev 11.0/AAHDE133
buy 1355 / SL=1350 ; will be a loss today of - 5.0 points,
after the poor employment numbers...
hope this helps...
jwg
looks like we'll be at 1330 in a hurry...I won't be adding to the calls i bought at the close
hedging my ndx/call 1355 position ( SL=1350) with NQ/short
@ 1360 (SL = 1364)
ST buy signals:
-RSI(5) at 24.4
-VIX spiked more than 13% and above it's Bollinger bands
-extreme lopsided breadth
-Arms Index closed @2.82
-spx and indu not to far away from a new low...could happen soon..in next day or two. that may attract both buyers with real blood and ones with chips :)
warnings:
-all indices closed near lows on increase volume in the last hour
-oil spike added to the downside momo today.
-spx and indu blow thru their 200ema for the second time in a month
one reason it may be wise to take any intial bounce as a relief for now:
over the weekend i posted a bit of analysis on CBOE put/call in which i argued the recent bottom was likely to be revisted. i'd like show a similar relationship between the Equity put/call and the SPX. You will clearly see the inverse relationship between the 10 MA readings of the CPC and tops and bottoms on these charts. right now, we are seeing readings that have marked the previous two tops. this implies that we may have a bit more downside in the weeks ahead. The counter that could be made to this argument is that perhaps we have made our to already (Aug 2nd) and should resume the upward move now. even so, ideally, based on this chart, we'd like to see a readings near .80 before commiting money in anything longer than a few days. This is put one "indicator" that needs to be considered amongst others...
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Soon, we shall be able to buy i think...soon can be days to 3 weeks away...it's all about when we get a confirmation...
And I agree with your post to Frank.
Yes that's possible. My IRA has a 1/3 position in USPIX and I'm waiting for a bounce to add another 1/3.
xe2dy, you might have added that companies will probably be required to expense options early next year. Then everyone sees who has been swimming naked.
I wonder if this distribution of techs isn't partly because of the prospects of very unflattering future earnings reports.
Good point, Frank, but momentum turned bearish again today and I will be surprised if we don't gap down or drop lower soon after the open before we start that oversold rally.
That was a blow up from a 3 year which is why some of the TL's are a bit off. You should also note the declining RSI trend by connecting the last 3 lows. And like you said, the -DI isn't near an extreme yet. Here's the broader picture. Keep in mind a TL isn't valid, theoretically, unless you have 3 pts. to connect:
Buzz
Nice chart. The ADX red -DI should peak soon and that's one of the things I will look for. So I think we see a bounce first followed by more downside. Again, the rising price of oil, slower retail sales, the prospect of another increase by the Fed next Tuesday, the election, the terrorist threat and the jobs question tomorrow (did I leave anything out? LOL!) should prevent any sustained rally.
Also in regard to 'panic selling' that may be an 'old' indicator to some degree.
The IT revolution has empowered a greater number of retail traders, like myself, that would or could have taken short positions today with out actually selling any long positions out of fear. More of a greed issue.
Like pegwatcher, JMHO
Fits better on the 10/11th Peg.IMO
Buzz, on your chart if you draw a line starting at the March low and parallel to your line connecting the highs, we would touch it around 1330 - 1335 tomorrow.
that is my buy target. Expect we follow through in the morning with some more selling. jmho, may not be worth much, lol
We closed below the March, May, and July lows. We are also very close to the October 2003 low. I think it's very likely we return to the September, 2003 lows of 1308. The last hour today was the first sign of panic I've seen. I would like to see more panic on higher volume before committing to a relief rally. QQQ 32.60/NDX 1310ish. The p/c ratio is still not at an extreme. Comments?:
Buzz
if it theres going to be follow thru, id like to see a strong move down taking the spx and dow to new low. will need to watch closely tomorrow and exit quickly if thats the case
jmho
Also the oils.
geeez, they really shoveling it to us the last 15 minutes....,
hope my other SL/1350 holds up...
you buying august (or later) calls?
buy ndx/call @ 1355 (1/2) SL = 1350...hope my other SL holds...
pretty close now...
Trying to get the 35-36 bull spread for .10
No takers yet on 35 call for .15
now is 1358, but i see on my wonder-bra-machine...we can squeeze
a bit more...1357/1356...
could be we can get an entry at 1358/1357...i'm waiting and on
stand by...
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