Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Your are right about the vitual friendships. I believe I remember seeing your posts in years past as well. Relationships matter...
Hey Plash...
It has been a while. Hope you are doing ok. I am not talking about the market. I mean in real life. :)
UPDA.....a sweet stock....I miss it
I lost $1550 on UPDA, another one of S2's wonder pumps. It held up the transfer of my brokerage account because Interactive Brokers didn't trade it. I had to file a "worthless equities form" with E*Chit to get rid of it.
Stocks of note:
JNJ jumped nearly 2% today. Wow, wow, and wow. It lead the DOW 30 percentage-wise. Now, there's a rocking growth stock. Keep'm flying, boys. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^DJI+Components
INTC - a market darling, starts to fill. That's a good indication, the big boys are dumping. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11361698700
Everyone have a good holiday weekend & come back next week ready to buy the market (solars too).
Poor_user, I don't blame anyone for the trades I get into. I learned that early on. Yet, sometimes, maybe due to my desire to invest in companies that might do some good for the world (solar = less fossil fuel usage), I buy into things whose time will not come for, well, jeez, many years?
Then, again, I bought tons of that UPDA a few years ago, and I admit, I wasn't trying to do anyone any good except me. We know how that worked out.
I should have bought some JAMN.OB and even JCOF.PK on dips. But, ever since I lost a ton on UPDA.OB and before that OPBL.OB, I've been hesitant to invest in OBs and PKs, but in the past month, those stocks rocket and then crash. I can't watch 'em because I have to work. But, damn, if I could figure out the rhythm of those two, I'd make up for my losses in SOL and, well, I'll admit it, JASO.
Yeah, ENER pulled down the whole solar sector when they reported poor earnings and layoffs, I think, last month. It's like any bad news by any solar-related company just cuts more of the life out of all of the other solar energy stocks.
Somehow, though, the past two days have been good for solars. Still, I've been selling at each new high, this week.
There's a lot of conjecture that the markets won't "swoon" this June, or even this summer, but I just can't believe that. I think you might be right that the Fed, or whoever, can hold off a multi-week fall in the markets until a certain date. That date might be the end of June, but then, that might be like that Camping guy who predicted the rapture last weekend.
It really sucks, having the Fed/Gov't involved in the markets. None of the normal rules apply.
And Friday before a 3-day weekend! I got only one good SPY option trade in today (posted on my thread), but looking for another entry. There's enough liquidity in the June weeklies IMO to play. Will go out flat, though. . .
Newly
Market's really flat....
Guess it's just the computers trading back and forth. I don't see any ST trades posted even, on the SPYs, USO, etc. Oilies flat, except that short death trap, OXY.
Wall St.'s got nothing to sell. Nobody's buying, not with the QE2 clock ticking down.
The boards on Ihub that are not penny boards are pretty dead, too (maybe the pennies are as well, don't go there so don't know). I think everyone is waiting for the market slide that the Fed may never let happen. . .as long as they can prevent it, which will not be forever.
Newly
Long time no see......
There ain't much happening here. At least, there's no SPAM here. At least, it's not a political discussion.
From what I read on the yahoo boards, everyone is pretty disgusted with this fake-o market. I don't see any dedicated-long posts. Everyone is bearish. I don't see any brow-beating longs on the boards. They are gone. Haven't heard oil $120/bl in awhile.
When I see the option volumes at the end of the day, if I bought (10) puts, the total volume might be 20!!! There's just no one in this market. Swing-trading dead. If you've got deep pockets and can trade the stocks, you can make some ducats if you're quick.
For example, my D (Dominion), a idling utility stock, had a dividend on Weds of $ .49. Could have shorted it at near the high on Tuesday, and picked up almost a $1.00 on the fall. $ .49/sh was guaranteed. That's what I would have done had I had about $12K in margin to short 1000 shares.
I agree, we should all trade by our own lights, not someone else's because we are all unique traders. What works for one might not work for another. And, yes, too many people on these boards have an agenda and it is not to make you money.
That said, I personally use these boards to harvest trading ideas, fill in the times waiting for a trade to mature, and just to schmooze in general. After years of doing this one makes (virtual) friendships and learns who on these boards one can trust. . .
Newly
I do not check this forum much. Maybe once a year to see who is still here. So am glad I did though today. I tried sending you a private message, but could not so I am posting this one.
I feel bad for you and all who buy or sell based on someone else's opinion. Just keep track of who is telling you these things. Also keep a track record based on the trades they have you make.
Just food for thought, but pretty much everything that is said based on the stock, etc market can not be used to make you money. There are to many people in the world of the market. To many to have anything, like say a crystal ball, to perdict the movement of a stock, etc. Makes you think though. If all that is said in forums is useless, then what are all the forums for? To pump stocks, etc? Huuummmmm...
I have heard all the agruments against this line of reasoning, but for all who have bothered to agrue against this have tracks records which suck. And it never stops which makes me feel bad for all the people manipulated into these trades.
Go solar...go
Take a look at poor ENER...that should give another perspective on the solar sector: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ENER+Profile
They make conversion units for solar setups. Basket case.
ENER: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENER&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p84853429624
Be it S2 to disappear on one of his recs that's gone sour. He really got a hair up his ass on SOL. I should have known better than to listen to him, given the end of QE2, the dollar bottoming, etc. He's got to be down 35% on SOL. I had (10) JUL11 CALLS and (20) OCTs, The JULYs would definitely would have been trash, but I got $ .85 for them. Now, they're about half that. I see the $6s as imminent.
I don't like any ETF long or short. I've been screwed so often on them. You don't know what's in them! What's in them, could already be played-out? If you buy a short oil ETF and it's probably full of XOM, CVX, COP, BP, those are widely held in MFs and in people's IRAs as index funds. Those long ETFs are probably buoyed by all those bagholder accounts. A lot of those short ETFs have so little open-interest, the option spreads are just untradeable. The big boys keep skimming the gravy off the tops. MFs don't care as they get the same commissions whether their investors make money or lose money. Big oil hasn't broken it's running support, in now over 3 months.
Not a good bet, MRO: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MRO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p89723165805
Same on OXY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OXY&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p81851338490
Possible better bet, but very low trader, HES: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HES&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p53712006390
I've traded CNQ before & made $$$s: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p19644290082
I hold (20) USO JUL11 puts ($46/$47), (22) CNQ SEPT11 $48 PUTS & (8) D JUL11 $50 PUTS. D is a slow bugger to fill, I'm still down a couple hundred bucks on it. As soon as I bought (6) puts on it, within seconds, it sprinted up $ .50/sh to a new high. There's no one in this market except the HF players. There are so few players in this market, that big boys know when some chump is shorting, even for a shitty (6) puts.
I would not bet that the market will be down further in June (though I am going to hold what I have in anticipation, we will be breaking down some in the next 2 weeks), so I would not buy any puts closer in than July. I can't short anything as I have no margin against my option holdings.
I still think oil will recede sometime in June. That's my gamble.
Some on the SPY board was quoting some article written by someone named "Sullivan" who was comparing what happen in Japan per the end of some govt. stimulus program vs. the US. He thought the market would hold high to the very last day (end of June). He may be right. I wish I would have bookmarked that post.
Thanks for your thoughts! I just couldn't let go of this one and I still haven't. Maybe if it goes up to $7.30 or so, I will. I've got a $9.3 cost basis, though.
So, given that you believe that oil is going to drop, how do you feel about buying some SCO and holding for a month?
Since it's a double-short, the decay isn't quite as bad as say TZA.
I'm not a SOLman......
I've never liked solar. It represents about .01% of all the produced energy.
Originally, it looked like SOL would hit $10-$11.50/sh, but it just rose on the "pump", and that's all it was. I should have sold it on the pump for a profit. I sold my (30) calls when it was $9.17 for a $3.05K loss. Glad I did. The big boys aren't buying solar stocks, those are for a rising bull market.
This market is selling-off, but so slowly and in such a scattered manner it's not always noticable.
Take a look at FSLR (First Solar). It just broke a big-time support level at $121/sh. It's headed to $106/sh or lower. I'll bet those puts are expensive?
FSLR 1-YEAR: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSLR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p23748991588
The perfect triad....
The perfect storm was brewing in April, at least in energy stocks and oil. The dollar was about to hit a 3-year low, the seasonal trough for energy stocks starts in April-May and usually bottoms in June, and again in July. The other part of the perfect storm was the end of QE2 at the end of June. I bought my oil puts when the dollar was around $75. I was too early a bit on oil, but it's paid-off. I expect oil to drop off it's present shelf by mid-June along with the rest of the market.
S2 thought SOL was some-kind a value-play at the $8/sh support level, but the 2nd lower high ($10.73) at the end of March was the writing-on-the-wall for SOL. I was hoping I could get out at even with one more pop, but no soap. Solar's a dead sector. The big boys have been squeezing the Dogs of the Dow and other market darlings to jam the indexes up. They could give a chit about the solars. The money's going out of solar, not in.
SOL 1-yr chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37632171033
Hey plash, it's obvious that you don't like SOL, but really, don't you think it's been beaten down enough? Don't you think that soon, like in a week or two, the trend will change, the shorts will cover, and SOL as well as JASO, CSIQ, YGE, and maybe some others might start to trend back up?
Truthfully, I wish I would have listened to you a month ago, when you saw this down trend starting. I held like a fool, not a whole lot, but it still bugs me.
Anyway, do you have any hope for SOL?
Or, do you foresee the overall market heading down (end of QE2, summer doldrums, etc.) and taking SOL with it?
Likewise.....
Keep us informed
Because if you don't know why, then I, along with most others would be wasting our time reading your posts.
CNFU suspended....
Part of the defunct UPDA..........Why has it taken so long?
CNFU : SEC Suspension :
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/suspensions/2011/34-64458.pdf
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2011/34-64460.pdf
3 sector ETFs break their highs....
XLP (consumer staples): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLP
XLU (utilities sector): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLU&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p14948093139
XLV (health care): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p32746667740
These sector ETFs have continued to move to new highs, only to break their rise this week (post-option's expiration week).
There were large volume spikes in XLP & XLV.
My D (Dominion) followed suit per the utilities. It had a dividend of $ .49/sh today, but it closed much lower than just minus the $ .49/sh dividend. Closing at least another $ .30/sh lower. Somebody walked.
D 3-month: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=D&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p37309132508
If I am correct, it should fill to it's 50dma at $45.67 (from it's present $47.18.
And why am I suppose to be watching it?
Keep an eye on that inverse H & S on the USD that is in it's final stages of development....
I pasted it, because I thought it was an interesting point of view..
I have no idea whether he's right or wrong. Some may give the FED more credit for what happens in the market than might really be true?
Though, I do agree with him that bringing out a QE3 right now, may be politicially untenable?
I am still holding my crude and oil stock puts, as I think that crude will make a 2nd move down before it bottoms. Usually, when the anti-oil legislation heats up, is when the oil finally recedes (till the next time).
As for Cramer....in 2008 he was telling everyone to buy LEH (when it was still in the $40s) just before it crashed. I remember, "Go ahead, don't be stupid, just buy a little." I think I made about $80K on LEH in 2008. My 2nd round of puts on LEH, when it was $21.95/sh to $ .22/sh was sweet!
Sorry for the delay. I have been working on a new trading thing. I'll explain later, but if you haven't already gotten a response, basically if stocks go down, that money piles into bonds. Bond prices going up means the rates go down. But in this case, the expectation is that that money is not going to be put at risk with inflation around 3%+ now and getting paid only 3.2 on 10 years. So, the lack of demand once the Fed is gone for those bonds will make them fall in price, thus pushing up rates and TMV. That was the idea. I think it still plays out, but maybe not as fast as you'd expect.
I bought it then sold it. The decay problem with these triple leveraged ETFs are dangerous to sit on. I think it's a winner, but don't want to bet on it.
The only question for that guy is who does he consider the 'big boys'? Bill Gross of Pimco is the biggest of them all and he's out and all but saying to short the bond market. If you go back in time and look at what happened to the bond (treasuries, not notes) market after QE1 was over, they didn't top out until about 2 months later. The bond market is very technically driven. So, until you get a clear break of the uptrend, it's going up with or without QE until it doesn't.
But I think that guy has it wrong. Everything the Fed has done has been one large experiment. They are playing a very dangerous game here and all the hedge funds they scared out of stocks by screwing them on every decline has sent them packing into the commodity markets. So now they (the fed) have gained literally nothing of benefit by pushing up stocks because the average Main Street American is getting killed by the higher cost of living. They can't touch the traders in commodities because it's a world wide market.
So, oil will go up and up along with food until the fed gets the hell out of the way and lets ALL markets trade on their own. If that means the SPX falls to 900 or less, well, that's what it does. Time will heal all wounds, but at least they'll tell the accurate tale.
You see, what the fed has screwed up here is by forcing everyone into stocks by making savings worthless, they boxed themselves into having to lock down lending. If you try to get a cash-out refi now, you won't get it. The fed has put the breaks on banks doing that. Home equity is where all the money comes from to pay for high-ticket items like remodels and cars and on and on and without the average income American able to access that equity for cash, not refi of existing, the economy is dead. But for the fed, the second the public has access to that money, inflation will skyrocket making things ten times worse.
It seems to me and those that I read that know this stuff that the only way out of this quagmire they created for themselves (probably by being scared by Jim Cramer screaming at them on his TV show back in 2008) is to truly let the economy fall off the cliff, destroy true demand for commodities like food and oil, and then let the banks do what they do - LEND.
I don't see any other way. The bond market will spike up and rates will collapse, thus helping lending demand, and thus help truly ease the 'real' recovery down the road.
The longer this drags on, the more they are going to be forced into doing something like that.
UCO....deja vu....?
UCO 17-MONTH CHART: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UCO&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p74108220501
UCO Proshares Ultra Bull Crude is at the same "shelf" it was in 2010, before it plunged further from the initial May 6th plunge.
I'm going to hold my CNQ & USO puts. This could get interesting.
Bonds vs. Stocks....
An interesting comment from the yahoo SPY board:
"Fed is taking out QE2 and you would think bonds should tank! That is how an amateur thinks with the obvious, and acting how they want you to. You are not playing with fools here. They are big and very connected. Here is what they know and why they are sneaking into bonds while you fret the opportunity to do so. Fed knows along with the big boys that right now they can't push through a QE3. Politics are not going to allow it right now. They need bond money to replace short term what they can't do like before. Easy fix, tank the stock market force the money into bonds as the economy tanks, then after that and the big boys made their money in bonds the game will change as the political environment will force a QE3 due to a tanking economy. Then the game changes again as the public will be now trapped in bonds as they tank and the big boys are already sneaking back into stocks. Keep the little guy one step behind is the game.
If you don't get it sorry you are on the wrong side of the trade. It's already a little late as bonds have been sneaking up for weeks under the radar. I have been in bonds for 2 weeks with a nice gain so far. I don't think for myself I allow myself to simply follow the big boys and get in early."
Dead-cat bounce...opt's expiration week
I figured we have a bounce Weds & Thurs of opt. exp. week, then a dump on Friday. Looks like that is coming true. That was the sentiment of many traders on the boards.
OXY drops below $100. Crude dropped precipitously, almost $3/bl.
COP, CNQ, USO, CVX are down and should fill 100%+ of their pre-option's exp. week levels.
SOL.....what basket case, $7.20. New low today @ $7.15. Glad I got out in the $9s.
I am going to try and dump my D if I can get out without any loss. It's just not filling, just being traded back and forth in a $ .30/sh range. Being used to buoy some fund. Dividend next Weds, should drop it $ .49/sh and maybe somebody will walk on it post-dividend? It may start to fill all the way down next week or June?
Stocks like JNJ are dropping, and some darlings are being dumped.
CVX & COP ERs & dividend dates
Looks like CVX had ex-date dividend on Tuesday, May 17 of $ .78/sh
ER is 29 July.
COP has an ER on July 25 and a dividend about the same time.
Never played NAT.GAS
so I don't know much about it. Again, take a look at the Spectrum Seasonal chart on nat. gas: http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/ng.html
Looks like it typically bottoms in July as crude, and rises in September. In 2010, it was mostly down April-May and took off in June.
Right now, resistance is $12.20. It's $10.83. Is it really worth the play? Well, at least it doesn't have much downside. If it were being rotated into, you'd think you would see some kind of pop? Nothing!!! Yeah, it could get popped...or not?
Just be careful on long positions this week. This looks like a dead-cat bounce, particularly, in the oilies. From what I've read on the boards (i.e. USO, SPY), people are taking this opportunity to short, "not" buy in on this latest rally. No one believes in this week's pop.
Here is one stupid yahoo summary of "newz" on why oil has taken off..
"Crude oil's gains were a culmination of a couple of things, including overnight weakness in the dollar, the risk trade being turned back on, as well as wild fires in Canada near the oil-sands that have caused the shut-in of some production as a precautionary measure. Concerns over the possibility of further shut-in for production helped crude oil move higher. June natural gas ended up 0.4% to $4.20 per MMBtu."
Oow, I like the part about all the production that is "shut-in" because of forest fires. That is rich. No one's gave a chit about oil sands production till just now. It's, of course, meaningless.
Thinking to go long on UNG. What do you think?
Go for it.......
While the TA would suggest a bounce here & we are at sort of a support area on COP, and a false auction bottom looks to be in place. The volume to the upside doesn't seem to support it being heavily oversold.
I still have a bias to the downside. I still think we will see the 200dma tested.
I see the "newz" is conveniently parading around Boone's bullish portfolio on oil today, except it's his portfolio as of March 31. That's 1.5 months ago. I like it. There are bounces in oil across the board, higher %s in the smaller issues, as MRO, CNQ, etc.
Again, remember that this option's expiration week. Squeezes were expected to pin the May options for everyone's benefit.
Good luck on those longs.
plash, I am buying CVX and COP at these prices.
COP..does this stock look bullish?
COP 15-MONTH CHART: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98244513314
COP 5-month: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COP&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p29155284640
I'd say that the 200dma at $66.55/sh & below is a given. Target: $65/sh.
To compare, look at what my CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources) did:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73354938701
The big oilies haven't tanked yet because they are widely held in MF index funds, but they are heading south.
CNQ is a weak cousin.
REMEMBER: THIS WEEK IS OPTION'S EXPIRATION Week.
Reversal which way...?
Are you talking about a ST move up from the latest trough? Or another move down to put us in a down-trend? SPX right on that 50dma today.
I can't trade options on a day-trade. There's just not enough volatility, and between the discounting effects of the delta and the crappy spreads between the ask and bid, even when things are going your way, it's not worth the risk to me. Right now, to the long-side, we are seeing 1 or 2 day pops, then a 100% fill.
I don't see anything long (whatsoever) I like. The big boys got the utilities, consumer staples, health sectors, jammed to the ceiling. Solars are trash.
I only had $K left in my sweep acct, so I added (2) D JUL11 $50 PUTs at noon (ET) @ $2.65. Damn, if I just didn't buy those and the stock sprinted up $ .10 - $ .15/sh. They know when someone's shorting. It closed on the high. D (Dominion) has an ER on 25 May. That will drop it $ .49/sh. I think, post-dividend, whomever drove it up will start dumping it (slowly) for a fill to $44 from $48+.
Oil stocks are still falling. See CVX (Chevron). It hit another low today at $99.61/sh. To $97.60 at support is a given.
No telling when the market's gonna break down again? There's certainly no one in the market to push the market up except the big boys.
Right now, I still see the oilies as the most promising move down. Rising dollar, rising inflation due to diesel costs on shipping, and heated anti-oil legislation.
As of this morning, I was up $10K+ on $30K portfolio, dropped off some after the daily squeeze up.
What's your next move? What are good trades for a Market reverse.
SOL & solars D.O.A.......
As I anticipated, SOL dropped in to the $7s (now, $7.63 as I type). I'm glad I walked on it above $9. Now, that's it's below $8, a real big support line, it could drop to the $5s? $8 was critical support since last December.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37632171033
Up 30% in my short oil portfolio and counting. This was a perfect storm for oil to drop.
I am down about $300 on D. D is hovering at walked-up high of $48, & has a dividend date of 25 May, of $ .49/sh. That should bring me down to even on it. I expect that whomever drove it up past resistance, will start dumping it post-25 May? Good for about($4/sh).
Let's keep'm flying......
S2, if the stock markets are going drop, would bonds go up. Why long on TMV?
S2: I think you may like to read this one too:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeff-cooper-sp500-bin-laden-dead/5/2/2011/id/34268
and that one - he posted on April 27...two weeks ago!!!
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/silver-silver-price-precious-metals-silver/4/27/2011/id/34187
Sign of Slowing Global Economy as Copper Breaks Below 200-Day
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/global-economy-market-news-equity-averages/5/12/2011/id/34488
Bank of England tightening call roils markets
http://www.futuresmag.com/News/2011/5/Pages/Emini-stock-indexes-react-to-Bank-of-England-rate-warning.aspx
Dominion (D) has gone parabolic....
D 1-year chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=D&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98144742861
The oilies are still falling, only the change in margin limits on commodities have crimped the speed of the fall right now.
Per the D board, there's no reason why this stock should be so high right now.
Every time it's gone parabolic like this, it's filled 100%. This should be good for a $4/sh correction.
I'm taking what little cash I have left in my sweep acct. and buying (7) D JUL11 $50 PUTS @ $3.10? Delta = .8187. Per the open-interest, it doesn't look very bullish, over strike $45. July's should be plenty of time for this to fill. This week, it looks topped out.
S2, have you bought TMV yet?
Some sector rotation to buoy indexes...
Looks like the big boys have been pounding on the healthcare sector (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) & D (Dominion) to buoy the indexes. Putting in new highs.
MRVL, you might want to think about rotating your TZA directly into TMV. I think that might be a great trade for you. The quickest and surest way to get a TZA type of trade right back to $60+
I'm starting to change my focus on how to play the market now. The stock market is dead due to lack of interest by just about everyone. The Fed has been successful I think at hammering the speculators. So, they just ran into commodities and forex where the Fed can't touch them. The only thing the gov can do is raise margins on commoditie trading. That's helped them and hurt the small guys, but the big guys run the world and that won't do anything.
But I see something else starting to take shape - and it's a possible big trade. First, read this article by Bove about interest rates and banks...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42937720
Now, regardless of what he thinks about BAC or C, his point is now starting to take shape about bond yeilds begining to rise soon, and this time it could be the big one. Everyone has been talking up rates over the last year, but now it looks like it's finally starting to come to a point where it will probably do so in a longer term trend.
Previously, I traded into TYO as a way to play that. The trade actualy worked out, but not for me becuase I was too scared. The problem with TYO was that they added (direxion) the shorter term 7 year bond into it which dragged it down because the Fed has been targeting short term bonds for the QE.
But this time I'm not making the same mistake. This time I think I have the right call here - TMV. TMV is the 3x 20+ year bond bear fund, which goes up when the 20 and 30 year bond yeilds rise. Just look at this chart...
The top window is the actual chart of the 20 year yeild, which as you can see puts us less than 1% above the all time low of about 3.25%. We're currently at 4%ish. But look at where TMV is -- at $38ish now, the low back at 3.25% puts that at just $31, so that's your ultimate risk. Not too shabby for something that could easily triple your money with no time risk of options.
The best part is you can sell covered calls on it month after month knowing that eventually you'll see this ramp because it will HAVE to.
Any umph left in TZA...?
Good article link, by the way. I don't think TZA has the x3 umph it once had when it was trading over $90/sh. I could be wrong?
I heard that Cramer's is pumping OXY, a must own. That should be a contrarian signal that oil stocks are coming down.
http://blog.capitalmarketvision.com/
Today's post is same as your's... add more TZA if RUT hit 870?
Well, first watch this chart very closely--->>
If that yeild breaks below 3%, then what the bond market is tellin you is that the economy is starting to roll over in a meaningful way and that inflation is nowhere to be found. In that case, the stock market will have to follow it. Almost every tech stock earnings has supported the idea that the economy is nowhere near as strong as the bulls have said. It's all an illusion.
The Russell will get hit the hardest because the only reason people buy those stocks is to play catch up with the SPX. Small companies have a harder time making it in the real world because they don't have the credit or cash to carry them like big companies do.
So, TZA should be a big winner. But for now, you have to go with the idea that the market is just not going to be allowed to go down in a big way until something forces the hand of whoever is out there holding it up. Everyone knows the market is overbought/valued.
What are the suitable stocks and ETF’s to play (long/short) the trend reverse?
June 13th I think is Armstrong's 8.6 year major cycle reversal date.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/stocks/commentary/the-market-time-period-red-alert-1576930.html
Followers
|
29
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
1298
|
Created
|
06/07/09
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderator SyndicateTwo | |||
Assistants |
This board is the new SyndicateTwo board strictly for option trading based on cyclical and seasonal patterns of stocks. I'll start with a $10,000 account and make all trades here before and let's see how high we can grow it!
Using options and specifically at the right time - no complicated spreads - can dramatically grow your account very quickly. Many top volume stocks have very repeatable seasonal tendancies that I have become very interested in and now have a couple software programs that pinpoint these times. Using options with very little money each trade can turn little accounts into very large accounts very quickly. Let's see what happens! Best part is, you don't need to watch your comp or daytrade!
NOTE: This account is a simulated account. However, it's most likely that I, the moderator of this board and the one making these plays, WILL also be making these trades personally for my personal account. The account WILL NOT assume commission charges. I reccommend you use 'INTERACTIVE BROKERS or MBTRADING' for your option trading because of the extremely low commission charges. IB charges .70 per contract and MB charges $1, both with no minimum ticket as most others. Let's make some money!
NOTE: All trades will be emailed before they are posted if you are on the board email list
Date | Stock | Option Used | Paid | Sold | Profit / Loss | Current Cash Balance | Net Account Value | |
6/11/09 | ACXM | 10 July $12.50 PUTS | .85 ($850) | 6/24 $1.25 | $400 (2 friggn' days short of a 3 bagger! Dang!) | |||
6/12/09 | DECK | 3 July $60 PUTS | $1.15 ($345) | $0 | <$345> | |||
6/15 | AUY | 5 July $9 calls | .70 ($350) | $.40 ($200) | <$150> | |||
6/15 | ATHR | 10 July $17.50 PUTS | .60 ($600) | <$600> | ||||
6/15 | AMED | 2 July $30 calls | $2.98($596) | $5.80 ($1160) | $564 | |||
6/16 | GENZ | 3 July $55 call.(2 @ $1.70 & 1 @ $1.30 | $1.70 ($470) | 6/22(got as high as $3) | $120 Sold to roll into the Aug | |||
6/22 | GENZ | 5 Aug $55 calls | $2.75 ($1375) | $3.50 ($1750) | $375 |
| ||
7/9 | QQQQ | 15 July $33 calls | $1.96 ( 2940) | 7/13 $2.10 ($3150) | $210 | |||
7/2 | NCTY | 5 July $10 calls | $.55 ($265) | $ 0 | <$265> |
| ||
7/13 | ABT | 4 Aug $46 calls | $1.25 ($500) | $0 | <$500> | |||
7/22 | BRCM | 10 Aug $30/26 put spread | $1.95 ($1,950) | 8/18 $3.50 ($3,500) | $1,550 | |||
7/22 | SGR | 5 Aug $29/26 put spread | $1.20 ($1,200) | $0 | <$1,200> | |||
7/30 | BAC | 20 Sep $15 calls | $.57 ($1,140) | 8/3 $1.05 ( $2,100) | $960 |
| ||
8/6 & | SYNA | 35 Jan 2010 $25 calls | 5 @ $3.90 Total basis $8,350 | 12/23 | $4,600 |
| ||
9/11 | SYNA | SELL SHORT 15 Dec $32.50 calls as covered call for 15 long Jan $25 calls | 15 @ $1.70 (+$2550) | 9/25 buyback @ $.80 $1200 | $1,350 | |||
10/20 | AAPL | 2 Nov $195 puts | 2 @ $3.60 ($720) | 10/29 $6.50 ($1300) | $580 | NET VALUE for 2009 $17,259 | ||
2010 Begins Here | ||||||||
1/6 | REGN | 14 Feb $22.50 puts | $.60 ($840) | $0 | <$840> | |||
1/18 | TZA | 330 shares | $9.04 ($2,983) | 1/25 $9.81 $3237 | $254 | |||
1/25 | REGN | 14 Mar $22.50 puts | $.60 ($840) | $0 | <$840> | |||
3/8 | TZA | 1500 shares | $7.70 ($11,550) | 7/16 called out at $7($35 post split) $10,500 | <$1050> | |||
4/12 | RXD | 100 shares | $31.42 ($3142) | 5/20 | $881 | |||
5/20 | TZA | Short 15 June $7 Calls | 6/18 | $1.55 ($2325) | $2,325 |
| ||
6/8 | TNA | 100 Shares | $40 ($4000) | 6/15 $46.30 $4,630 | $630 |
| ||
6/24 | TZA | Short 15 July $7 Calls | 7/16 expired in the money w/1500 shares $0 | .75 ($1,125) | $1,125 | |||
6/25 | TNA | Short 1 Aug $50 Put | $13 ($1300) | $11.40 ($1140) | <$160> | |||
7/1 | TNA | 1 July $20 call | $17.50 | $19.30 ($1930) | $230 |
| ||
7/12 | BRCM | 14 Aug $35 Puts | $1.37 ($1,918) | $3.40 $4,760 | $2,842 | |||
7/21 | BRCM | 10 Aug 34/36 Put Spreads | $.58 ($580) | $1.75 $1,750 | $1,170 | |||
7/28 | SYNA | 10 Aug $30 Puts | $.75 ($750) | $1.80 $1,800 | $1,050 | |||
8/6 | PCLN | 10 Sep 270/280 put spreads | $3.60 ($3600) | $0 | <$3600> | |||
9/7 | TYO | 30 Feb 2011 $40 calls | $5.30 ($15,900) | $3.00 ($9,000) | <$6,900> | |||
11/22 | GOOG | 2 Dec $620 calls | $4.40 ($880) | $0 | <$880> | |||
12/9 | MNKD | 10 Jan 2012 $5 calls | $3.50 ($3,500) | $3.80 ($3,800) | $300 | |||
2/4 | SOL | 10 March $10 Calls | $2.20 ($2,200) | $0 ($2,200) | <$2,200> |
| ||
3/22 | SOL | 30 Oct $7 calls | $2.85 ($8,550) | $3.80 ($ 11,400) | $ 2,850 | |||
3/22 | BAC | 60 July $12 calls | $1.75 ($10,500) | $2,196 cash on hand as of 4/1
|
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |