Look, I hear ya. I make my living mostly daytrading futures. In and out. Picking swing trades is very difficult over the long term because there are so many things that affect why a stock is worth something today and then not tomorrow.
As for SOL, what happened here is that the glut of polysilicon due to the expanded ramp in production to meet Italian and German subsidies is just now being realized in terms of lower selling prices. SOL has been the biggest 'go to' trade for the professional investors because they are the most proficient and cheapest producer out there. So, there are larger positions to sell in it than the others. LDK is a 'glamor' solar stock that only the puny investors trade in because it's the best known. Large investors don't get involved with companies that are owned over 50% by one person like LDK is. But that works for you when things get ugly because as long as that person doesn't sell, it puts a limit on the downside.
Now for the market in general, which is what I'm better at rather than specific stocks, we are now most likely experiencing a 4th wave bounce which should stop at around SPX 1300 to 1320 max. A break above that changes things. But this rally should fail around here and then lead to a final 5th wave decline around SPX 1250ish to 1220 max on the downside.
That then sets up an interesting situation. The ideal scenario is for a big rally to new highs if only for the reason of this being the 3rd year prez cycle which is typically the largest year of the 4 year prez cycle. As of today, the market is up 2% I think for the year. It should end the year at least 7 to 12%.
But be careful worrying about SOL. SOL will easily double and possibly triple by year end if they support anywhere near their last guidance. Aug earnings is going to be a biggy.
AI
