Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[soma2022]

We get it that you want Foley fired...you have made your point. Not once have you conveyed what strategic changes you would make that he is not doing. I totally disagree with you that he didn't make any changes or the right changes. I feel he is well on his way to course correcting and now the injectors have to do their job to get the word out and grow the user base. You can't wave a wand and have it happen over night. All rapidly growing cos started at 0% marketshare and no one should expect them to be at 20 to 30% in 2 years. The iphone took 8 years to get to 20% cell phone market share and it has stayed around there the past 10 years with no further market share gains on a unit basis. the iphone had only 2% marketshare after 2 years. Do you not consider the iPhone a huge success because of that slow growth?

If I made you CEO today, what press release or interview would you put out to shareholders that you feel will change shareholder outlook for the stock? He made a video 2 to 3 months ago and broadcast it to all accounts. Did you watch it? Do you want him to do videos monthly, weekly, daily??? I feel his message was right. Doesnt need to repeat it weekly because the share price keeps dropping. He got the pricing right, he is re engaging accounts, his messaging is right on duration now. what more should he do that other CEOs are doing? When was the last time you heard from Carrie Strom or Motazhedi and what did they say/convey that made their message to shareholders so much more powerful.

[alertmeipp]

Well, he needs to around to deliver those though.
I think he needs to execute and let the numbers talk

Another thing is the management should step up and buy some shares with real money

They can talk all days about how confident they are but show me the money

Talk is cheap

[Emannow]

Foley needs to communicate with stock investors and rebuild trust and be honest! He is a silver tongued guy who now has to put actions behind his words and needs to show investors what he is doing! Why should anyone trust him???

[alertmeipp]

Don't assume short term stock price move is always rational though

Foley seems to be doing exactly what you have been suggesting now

What else he can do to make RVNC better

[Emannow]

Well the $100 million investors are now down 1/3 or $30 million in 2 weeks!

Foley has his head so far up Angul Russell's butt and his mouth is full of SXXX!

Foley by himself is KILLING RVNC....FOLEY MUST BE FIRED!

NOTICE, no communication from FOLEY! He is a trainwreck!

[alertmeipp]

They just raised 100mm, executives are probably busy setting up nice compensation plan for themselves for next couple years

Performance bonus that worths millions etc

Annual shareholder meeting is coming

Stock is making low almost daily, they might get kicked off the boat before jumping ships

[PioneerUniverse8]

and execs jumping off the sinking ship

When Schilke jumps the ship you will know that they are done... not before that. He has jumped once before, from a ship called Achaogen.

[alertmeipp]

Well your post show they are generating positive cash and profit in 2026 while growing 30 percent and yet u said current shareholders are toasted

How silly is that

[valiano]

You keep using price to sales ratios for an unprofitable company. I don't think it'll do you any more good than it has done in the past year.

Hoping for a certain share price is not an investment strategy. The play IMO is to bet when you see the growth inflection upwards.

[alertmeipp]

So you are saying they will have close to 500mm of sales in 2026 and growing at 30 percent rate, and somehow the EV would be less than $150mm (current shareholder is toasted)

LOL

[valiano]

Napkin math: $100m due to Athyrium Sept '26, $287m convertibles Feb 2027. So within 2.75 years they're due to repay $387m. Current cash balance = 300m give or take. With the market cap where it is and given what happened with the third Athyrium tranche, I wouldn't bet on a favorable rollover.

With layoffs in Manufacturing and execs jumping off the sinking ship that is Marketing, even the $280m product guidance doesn't seem so lowball anymore. Assuming they hit it gives us $100m burn, which takes us to $200m cash Dec 2024.

2025: 30% top-line growth at 70% GMs and 310m opex = 55m burned. We can quibble about what they'll get from Fosun, I'm assuming a probability adjusted 50m during the year. Year end cash $195m.

2026: another 30% top-line growth at 75% GMs and 330m opex = +25m. Cash = 220m. Let's put SBC dillution aside for now. In this scenario they're short a of about 197m (since going below 30m cash triggers debt covenants). At the current SP, this is 42% of the market cap (and what if disappointing earnings in the meantime take the SP much lower). Takeaway for me is that unless they substantially beat that 30% sequential product revenue growth, current shareholders are toast.

[go seek]

Recent innovations in cosmetic dermatology injections…
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C5lFI_2rFd_/?igsh=eDNqMWtkNzl1aXB5

Comments on Daxxify start about halfway into video

[alertmeipp]

So you are agreeing with the shorts?
No sign Foley is leaving anytime soon, why don’t you short? Guarantee money

[alertmeipp]

>> My speculation is Q1 sales for Daxxi will be less than Q4-2023 sales.

Speculation? I would be rather surprised is their Q1 is better than 2023 Q4 given the seasonality.

[go seek]

Shorts… good chance expected soft #’s in the first quarter are already priced in…

[Monksdream]

RVNC new 52 lo

[rwwine]

My speculation is Q1 sales for Daxxi will be less than Q4-2023 sales. Gives the “shorts” plenty of opportunity to get out of their short position in the $3-$4 range. As others have cited, Q1 sales for toxins are on average soft in comparison wise to other quarters.

[go seek]

Added @ $4.39

[Emannow]

Allergan lost 4 Directors of Sales this past week to other companies…note, NONE want to work for Foley

[Emannow]

Short interest is up 3 million shares...Wall Street know Foley is killing RVNC with his bad decisions....As long as Foley is CEO, RVNC SP will continue to drop! The few employees who remain from Dustin are all looking for jobs...they want out....Foley is killing RVNC folks...Wake up!!!!!

Foley is blowing millions of dollars every week and ALLEGAN LOVES FOLEY!!!

[go seek]

^Bad CPI (inflation) report alert… take care.

[alertmeipp]

Yesterday volume was 1.7mm. This morning, it takes only 150k volume to take RVNC all the way down and more.

[go seek]

It’s About Time!

[go seek]

Revance Aesthetics
https://www.instagram.com/p/C5EZnS8xe1K/?igsh=enIwZHN6Y3hveXI0

https://www.instagram.com/p/C5gw2mFRyoz/?igsh=MTU4eGt5a2Q0cDdzeA==

[edcoolidge]

I wouldn't spend too much time trying to reply to his lowbrow points. His comment about contrarianism was easily the dumbest thing ever posted here—more useless than CosmeticMD's homebrew skincare line. Has anybody ever read Dew's signature line?

There are plenty of legitimate reasons to be bearish on RVNC. Their liquidity situation, interest rates, slow adoption due to the CosmeticMD effect, and continued unforced errors and excessive spending by Foley are real problems. Daxxify "not working" or being inferior to Botox, Dysport, or Jeuveau is not a legitimate reason and anybody who claims that is not worthy of being taken seriously.

I'll tag my own post with a clown emoji to give Tweedledee and Tweedledum a head start.

[vinmantoo]

Rather than having a lasting treatment, the condition treated starts to return in three months or less and you have to live with it for another three months or more. If I had to pay more for it, than I had to pay for Botox. I know I’d be royally pissed off.

You do realize that for Botox, the treatment has completely worn off yet they can't get another treatment for 3 months (on average) AFTER it has completely worn off. With Daxxify, it appears to wear off more slowly so you are still getting benefits during the time you are waiting until the next treatment. Add in that it is being reported that Daxxify shows it effects in a few days after treatment whereas with Botox, it appears you have to wait a week or two until full effects are see, so you are getting less duration on front end and on the back end.

Re the market being right or wrong: too many of the perma-bulls on this thread attribute their RVNC losses to the market being wrong. I’ve never known that kind of thinking to ever be a winning strategy.

It depends on the stock and the reason why you think it has gone down. Again, I have made lots of money by discounting what the market is saying in the short term. We will see in due time whether that is the case for RVNC. Jumping in after a stock has skyrocketed has a lot of risk too.

What I have seen on this thread has convinced me that there’s more risk than reward from buying Revance.

Everyone has to make up their own minds.

Thus it appears that the perma-bulls and the supporters of this company are just doing a pump and dump.

Believe what you like and invest accordingly. That is what makes a market, differing opinions based on the same information. Good luck. Just for fun, who are the pumpers and dumpers in your mind? Are there people coming here to post-negative comments or lie about Daxxify in a negative bent?

[edcoolidge]

Imagine being an actual doctor and spending every day tagging posts on an investing board for a stock you don't even have a position in. Doctors are often clowns as this doc has so clearly demonstrated. He's a bit hurt that I called him out before, but people here are obviously free to believe RVNCQ's opinion that Daxxify "doesn't work." GLTA.

[edcoolidge]

Re the market being right or wrong: too many of the perma-bulls on this thread attribute their RVNC losses to the market being wrong. I’ve never known that kind of thinking to ever be a winning strategy

Ian does it again. The above statement might be the dumbest thing ever written on any investment board. Ian has regurgitated a lot of falsehoods about Daxxify and appears to have no first-hand experience with the product. People here can make up their own minds.

[IanFromSI]

===================

Every toxin used has a time frame when you are not supposed to get another treatment. You seem to be suggesting it is only a problem for Daxxify. Is that true, and if so, why?

===================

Look at it from the patient’s perspective.

Rather than having a lasting treatment, the condition treated starts to return in three months or less and you have to live with it for another three months or more. If I had to pay more for it, than I had to pay for Botox. I know I’d be royally pissed off. I think that’s what RVNC has done to its initial batch of customers it’s unlikely to ever see them return. In my humble opinion.

Re the market being right or wrong: too many of the perma-bulls on this thread attribute their RVNC losses to the market being wrong. I’ve never known that kind of thinking to ever be a winning strategy.

But your point is right. Especially with a small cap emerging biotech. …. And if the two sides of the trade have different time frames, both can be either winners or losers.

What I have seen on this thread has convinced me that there’s more risk than reward from buying Revance.

Thus it appears that the perma-bulls and the supporters of this company are just doing a pump and dump.

[edcoolidge]

Yes. IanFromSI just took the crown as dumbest poster on this board—and that's impressive because CosmeticMD can't even remember what lie he told in the last message.

The share price has already collapsed so why does RVNCQ continue to spread lies about Daxxify? Here's what the post Ian mentioned actually said:

When some of Dr. Comstock’s Daxxify patients came in for follow-up appointments three and four months after treatment, many thought that it had worn off, but when she compared their movement to their expression photos take prior to injection, it seemed the toxin had actually just worn off slightly, roughly 25 to 50%. “What we noticed that was so different was that while Botox and other products have a steady nosedive of going away, Daxxify would sort of plateau at three to four months and oscillate for another few months,” she adds.

[vinmantoo]

It certainly sounds as if unrealistic Daxxify expectations have been created. …. And at great harm to Revance’s share price potential.

It sure seems to be the case for the Daxxify launch. A big part of that appears to be the premium pricing strategy, which has been abandoned.

In another post on this thread, it seems that Daxx performance peaks long prior to six months after the tx. … and slowly deteriorates over the next three or four months during which the Patient cannot have another tx. (Daxxify or anything else?)

Every toxin used will hit a peak then start wearing off. That time happens earlier for Botox. Every toxin used has a time frame when you are not supposed to get another treatment. You seem to be suggesting it is only a problem for Daxxify. Is that true, and if so, why?

This may be why Abbvie is seeing a greater need for a shorter duration Botox than something which competes with the unrealistic daxxify expectations.

There could be market for short-term treatment but that is hardly a threat to Daxxify.

I doubt that the market is flat out wrong.

Markets are dramatically wrong all the time. I have made a lot of money because of that. Too soon to say whether that is the case for RVNC.

[IanFromSI]

It certainly sounds as if unrealistic Daxxify expectations have been created. …. And at great harm to Revance’s share price potential.

In another post on this thread, it seems that Daxx performance peaks long prior to six months after the tx. … and slowly deteriorates over the next three or four months during which the Patient cannot have another tx. (Daxxify or anything else?)

This may be why Abbvie is seeing a greater need for a shorter duration Botox than something which competes with the unrealistic daxxify expectations.

I doubt that the market is flat out wrong. The price is down and staying down because there are more sellers than buyers as well. That’s just a natural result of all of the failures by RVNC and its management.

[Emannow]

Foley has a huge EGO and is trying to hang on as long as possible. HE knows that the opportunity to bring a product to market like DAXXIFY which has won all kinds of awards, will never happen again!!!

FOLEY has killed the company with his terrible leadership and decisions....this is 100% a FOLEY TRAINWRECK!

[go seek]

FWIW It was never reported that Revance was going to present at Needham 2024. To message CEO Foley pulled out is disingenuous. As you know he presented at Cowen on 5 March and Barclays on 12 March.

[alertmeipp]

Pressure is great
Deliver or get out

[Emannow]

Foley pulls out of 23 Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference...not surprising... Foley is getting big time pressure from share holders for his many bad decisions. Why would he want to discuss how is he is fixing his mistakes which cost investors billions while he pays himself millions...he should be fired!!!

[go seek]

Filler Trends 2024
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2r4osqp3Q_/?igsh=MTR4dHVscTg5azU1YQ==

[go seek]

Trends 2024 Facial Injectables
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2id52jJlcG/?igsh=eXIyMDJpOXNncDh6

[go seek]

RVNC is oversold… time to move up!

[dewophile]

.. I’d suggest this is monitored by CMS etc and is thus a whole lot harder to do after the fact. They will notice ‘predatory’ price increases..

i agree harder to do after the fact. GSK and PFE doubled their proposed pricing for RSV vaccines once 2 year efficacy data came out. It's not going to be as easy to do a step change in pricing on the off chance the vaccines will show good efficacy in year 3 (this data will be out soon in fact). However I do think if you suddenly have a 3 year vaccine when you thought you were pricing for a 2 year vaccine you can make an argument to CMS et al. for some larger than typical increase.
RVNC may end up in such a situation if in fact the lower dosing for CD ends up being employed in the real world than expected based on dosing in trials as I am hearing, and you then also start looking at the value proposition. ACIP didn't think GSK was predatory in their pricing when they argued the initial models were for an annual vaccine and were then doubled because of biennial dosing
However you also have pharmas being their own worst enemy on occasion and that might end up the case here too. Abbie for example completely underpriced Mavyret IMO. They could have taken market share from GILD with far less an aggressive price discount (they now had at least a comparable product or better on duration) and now both companies are probably making 50% less than they could have been off the hep c franchises.

[alertmeipp]

A) consistently, year after year, substantially more than 10% per year.
B) a drug that jumped 50% in a year
C) some combination of the two above. Eg 15% a year for 9 years in a row.

I get your point but I don't really care for now, as by the time RVNC's sales in therapeutic is significant enough to constraint their pricing dynamic in aesthetics, RVNC's market cap should be much larger than 450mm.

[mrwilson31]

Less flexibility on pricing for the Therapeutic side because Medicare only reimburses ASP + 6% across the board on meds.

Cosmetic toxins can have various discount structures put in place.

The government can only dictate Medicare reimbursement not what the company can price a med at.

[Emannow]

Agree…my message says the are different prices

[mrwilson31]

The therapeutic vial has a different NDC number than the cosmetic vials. Hence they cannot charge for cosmetic vials.

Therapeutic pricing is different than cosmetic pricing.

[iwfal]

I don't see why they can't adjust the price upward as long as Daxxify offers real benefits to injectors and consumer. (aesthetics side).

.

Ok, find an example of a therapeutic drug covered by CMS that boosted price by either:

A) consistently, year after year, substantially more than 10% per year.

B) a drug that jumped 50% in a year

C) some combination of the two above. Eg 15% a year for 9 years in a row.

I doubt there are many outside of Shkreli. And even if you do manage to pull off A or B, that’s still a big delay in getting to where revenues would have been under the general assumptions of 2 years ago.

[boraborak38]

Really good info. And yes….this is why Evolus split from Aeon years ago (Aeon has therapeutic with same toxin). And because Evolus is aesthetic only, they can do things a bit different (pricing, marketing, etc)

[alertmeipp]

Wow - Great news - How to celebrate?

$RVNC didn't go down more today! We should all celebrate this accomplishment. Management absolutely deserves millions of bonus on delivering this great news.

PS. Market up big today.

[alertmeipp]

I think it makes sense for them to give incentives as they are now pushing for market share. Also, they are probably trying hard to demolish the Daxxify-is-too-expensive narrative.

Once they are more well-established, I don't see why they can't adjust the price upward as long as Daxxify offers real benefits to injectors and consumer. (aesthetics side).

[Emannow]

The Therapeutic price for a vial of Daxi is determined by a government formula. RVNC is required to provide their Aesthetic US sales for all vials sold each year. Also included are all FREE vials provided as part of a sale. Staff Training vials are NOT included in determining the "Average Vial Sales Price". Allergan gives accounts staff training vials and makes the account sign a document which says the account will NOT sell the staff training. Reps use the Staff Training vials as a way to lower the Botox price to practices knowing ALL practices sell the staff training vials. When using a staff training vial on a paying patient, the practice will take a lot number off of a paid vail and document it on the patient chart. If an audit is done of staff training vails, their lot numbers will never appear in the any patient charts. Yet the vials are missing from the practice inventory. This is 100% illegal and the FDA just looks the other way.

Back to the "Average Price Calculation"...the average price is determined by the Aesthetic Sales Dollars divided by the number of vials sold plus free units...The US Government then takes this "Average Vial price" and discounts it 30% to 33% which created the US Therapeutic Price...Government always gets the best price.

This is why Allergan raised their Aesthetic vial price of Botox this year....this automatically raised the Therapeutic Price of a vial of Botox, making Allergan an additional $50 million just from the price increase from Therapeutic Sales. If Allergan loses cosmetic market share, the revenue increase on the Therapeutic side more than makes up for the lost aesthetic revenue.

Since the Aesthetic and Therapeutic products are the same and owned by the same company, this is the government's way of pricing.
Evolus is trying to side step this government calculation with the Therapeutic ownership of Jeaveau by a different company.

[iwfal]

Why can’t they raise prices as therapeutics comes online to levels that are still acceptable to payers (especially if duration Pam’s out saving md visits etc)

Ie the Allergan strategy. However I’d suggest this is monitored by CMS etc and is thus a whole lot harder to do after the fact. They will notice ‘predatory’ price increases (eg therapeutics increasing by 20% a year - the 10% that’s normal for many different therapeutic drugs plus an additional 10% to catch up) in a way they wouldn’t have noticed had it started like Allergan. And then they’d notice the fiction that allows such decoupling (the ‘coupons’ etc on the aesthetics side).

That said, yes, I’m being extreme. I suspect they will manage to decouple aesthetics and therapeutics pricing to some degree. Over time. But it will be slow to avoid catching attention.