Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[valiano]

Napkin math: $100m due to Athyrium Sept '26, $287m convertibles Feb 2027. So within 2.75 years they're due to repay $387m. Current cash balance = 300m give or take. With the market cap where it is and given what happened with the third Athyrium tranche, I wouldn't bet on a favorable rollover.

With layoffs in Manufacturing and execs jumping off the sinking ship that is Marketing, even the $280m product guidance doesn't seem so lowball anymore. Assuming they hit it gives us $100m burn, which takes us to $200m cash Dec 2024.

2025: 30% top-line growth at 70% GMs and 310m opex = 55m burned. We can quibble about what they'll get from Fosun, I'm assuming a probability adjusted 50m during the year. Year end cash $195m.

2026: another 30% top-line growth at 75% GMs and 330m opex = +25m. Cash = 220m. Let's put SBC dillution aside for now. In this scenario they're short a of about 197m (since going below 30m cash triggers debt covenants). At the current SP, this is 42% of the market cap (and what if disappointing earnings in the meantime take the SP much lower). Takeaway for me is that unless they substantially beat that 30% sequential product revenue growth, current shareholders are toast.