Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[randychub]

Let’s look back in 2 years and see what my return rate is for the roughly 15k shares I have picked up between 3-5 dollars. Then we can decide if there has been a good reason to buy shares. I’ll keep adding weekly so that number will be higher. If I get to 20k shares and the price goes to $20 that will be 300k. If it only gets to $10 I’ll get by with my $100k.

Best of luck to everyone.

[edcoolidge]

Is this what you call "laying out the bear case" ...

This post was deleted, not sure if by the mods or by the degenerate doctor himself. Why would an actual doctor put so much effort into spreading lies about Daxxify? To many people here the answer is patently obvious.

In my opinion Foley's biggest folly was thinking the industry would welcome a better product with open arms. Foley failed to anticipate and properly plan for the inevitable backlash from the existing large and well funded players and their unscrupulous CosmeticMD stooges.

We can expect a new screed from the doctor today.

[kld2]

From PR yesterday:

Revance continues to expect 2024 total net product revenue, which includes sales of DAXXIFY and the RHA Collection, to be at least $280 million.

MC is almost 1x 2024 sales.

[edcoolidge]

Personal attacks at people who were trying to sketch out the bear case

This is a terrible year for money losing companies. Revance is hardly alone in that. Foley has made it easy to hate this stock by continuing to lose more money. That said, many of the "people who were trying to sketch out the bear case" are using the share price collapse to spread lies that Daxxify "doesn't work" or is inferior to other toxins on the market. Those people are liars. Many people obviously want this company to fail and there's a reason why.

[stocksrising]

Just stating the obvious perhaps, but I’m extremely Long, fortunately have most in retirement accounts , hence no margin…however , in one of my trading accounts, I use leverage and Merrill is quick to send out Maintenance/Margin calls, so I’m praying $3 holds!! My bad, no excuses!! It’s already cost me 2 GF’s that I ‘made’ them buy at double digits pps, so I’m now single and broke :)

[valiano]

There have been ZERO reasons to be a buyer of this stock at any time this year (and plenty to be a seller). Incidentally, personal attacks at people who were trying to sketch out the bear case haven't boosted RVNC's fortunes much.

[kld2]

I've heard that story before.

[MrMILL]

Yes, a 50% drop in a month or so! What a disaster.

[kld2]

pricing of last offering was $6.25.

[iwfal]

The drop today must be RHA related. 30% drop on +7% QoQ units while Botox did -14% for same period makes no sense.

No. The drop is multifactored:

A) the gain in Daxxi unit volume was via, effectively, huge cost cuts. So no credible path to closing gap between sales and OpEx.

B) no plan, no crisp metrics articulated for closing this gap other than vague happy thoughts.

[stocksrising]

Regarding $3, a close under will create additional selling pressure due to Margin requirements at various brokers!!

[kld2]

I bought 5k shares at $3.00. Don't like Foley, but at these levels, lol, the r/r is too tempting.

[PioneerUniverse8]

I just saw $3.00 print ... RVNC is becoming an attractive take over target, hostile or otherwise.
The drop today must be RHA related. 30% drop on +7% QoQ units while Botox did -14% for same period makes no sense.

[iwfal]

Well, I didn't expect such a drop

Their burn rate is immense and they did zippo to indicate they have a solid/crisp/*measurable* plan forward. Zippo. Eg they needed:


A) set of metrics. Eg: number of accounts reordering after order previous quarter, brand new accounts

B) crisp plan to incentivize end consumer retention. And separate plan to incentivize first try. (Over time you can shift balance between the two)

[Kydg]

RVNC has to cut costs. I don’t understand why they spent so much.

[kld2]

hate to beat a dead horse, but do you know what would make the share price go up? If they sacked Foley. From $35 to $3. What are they waiting for? Seriously, why does he have such a hold on the company?

[kld2]

Just as I suspected: it will drop into the $2s. I bought added a bit early. Will wait to add more. Good job, Foley. Swell guy.

[alertmeipp]

Well, I didn't expect such a drop

[biotech_researcher]

Dew, is this the worst stock pick in your investing life??

[kld2]

Yah, right.

[stocksrising]

let's see if Foley/Toby/Anus have the balls to buy their own company(open mkt) and show how positive they feel about the future like they verbally sounded on Call!!! when does window reopen Anybody???

[kld2]

The biggest risk is Foley. Pro biotech investors, especially the big funds, know how important management is. I still can't believe Foley, after the sales and marketing fiasco, hasn't been relieved of his duties. Mind-boggling.

[stocksrising]

Gotta love how these reporters ( AI??, lol) use their terminology for price change’s :

These analysts made changes to their price targets on Revance Therapeutics (RVNC.NaE) following earnings announcement.
• Needham ‘cut’ the price target on Revance Therapeutics (RVNC.NaE) from $18 to $12.
Needham analyst Serge Belanger maintained a Buy rating.(~30% cut)
• Mizuho ‘slashed’ the price target on Revance
Therapeutics (RVNC.NaE) from $9 to $8( ~10% slash)…
Mizuho analyst Vamil Divan maintained a
Neutral rating.

[biotech_researcher]

Operating expense is $100M, revenue is $60M approximately.. short $40M per quarter. How can they expect to be even when generating $280M revenue 2024 and be break even in 2025? Unless operating expense can cut down to $70M? Just curious by 2025 meaning end of 2025 to break even?

You are intermixing years. $280M is revenue for 2024, not 2025. No estimate for 2025 revenue was given. Foley said the CD sales will really ramp in 2025.

[biotech_researcher]

so if Revance can just meet or exceed their guidance for revenue and expenses for 2024 I expect the stock to be considerably higher by the end of the year.- Agreed

[alertmeipp]

It’s not for everyone, not recommending it for conservative ones

[Fred Kadiddlehopper]

Needham analyst Serge Belanger maintains BUY rating, lowers PT $18-$12

[iwfal]

Operating expense is $100M, revenue is $60M approximately.. short $40M per quarter. How can they expect to be even when generating $280M revenue 2024 and be break even in 2025?

Yep. Compare to EOLS, for instance, which has higher sales, but substantially lower SG&A, and R&D. And Foley does not appear to have any plan to address this immense gap other than 'our targets are unchanged' (this is a general problem with Foley - nothing but vague soundbites, vague plans, but little actually changes and/or the changes drag out very slowly - eg the coupons being introduced 2Q after pricing changes, and even then Foley acknowledges using them only as a stopgap).

I genuinely do not see how this plays out well in this kind of interest rate environment. Eg he may be forced to an ultra-dilutive offering when he finally realizes he has no plan. Yes the Daxxi product is substantially better (my favorite example is that 2x dosing, 4x concentration of Jeuveau does indeed produce longer duration - but at the expense of much longer time to onset), but not so much so that the company can just ignore finances.

[edcoolidge]

The market obviously doesn't believe they can hit the guidance. The current trajectory makes it look pretty difficult. I'm skeptical they can do it. I'm concerned that a recession could derail their progress, although there's an argument to be made that Revance could gain more share in such a scenario as their products offer better value. Regardless, despite what the clown accounts on this board (the ones who will likely tag this post with a clown emoji) want you to believe, Daxxify is by far the best toxin currently on the market. It's likely we will see more of an S-curve pickup in adoption as more people become aware of Daxxify's superiority. Obviously there are a lot of people who want to prevent that. Some post right here on this board. The biggest risk to Revance's long term success is that an even better toxin emerges, and Foley's stumbles have cost them a lot of time to grow large enough to survive that.

[iwfal]

That +7% QoQ is stellar! RHA sucked but that could be transitory as mentioned on the call.

1) Sure, but it came via, effectively, price cuts. Unit sales were up from Q4, $ down.

2) When asked to comment on data-seen-to-date in Q2 Foley put much more emphasis on RHA picking up, and just gave bland words on Daxxy early Q2 data. Its not clear they know how to get Daxxi into new accounts? Further he noted that the assumption for the predicted 2024 revenue of $280M is that more than half is RHA.. They're going to be more an RHA company in 2024 than a Daxxy company..

[SuperAstrologer43]

Operating expense is $100M, revenue is $60M approximately.. short $40M per quarter. How can they expect to be even when generating $280M revenue 2024 and be break even in 2025? Unless operating expense can cut down to $70M? Just curious by 2025 meaning end of 2025 to break even?

[Emannow]

Up 7% quarter over quarter Daxi unit growth is amazing! Botox was down -17% quarter over quarter!

In Q4, reps load in product to make their year end bonus! Q1 is always tough and I had heard from several reps that Q1 2024 was extremely slow.

Why would RVNC hire 20 plus people if they were not expecting therapeutic sales. I know Foley and Russell are idiots, but their jobs are now on the line as shareholders will vote them out! The therapeutic sales team only has 1 product..Daxi! 100% of their time is Daxi.

[TimelessGoblin26]

I think Galderma also reported QoQ growth.

They sounded pretty optimistic on RHA in Q2, but probably helped by new product launch.

[PioneerUniverse8]

That +7% QoQ is stellar! RHA sucked but that could be transitory as mentioned on the call. The number that matters the most to me is that +7% QoQ, no other competitor reported QoQ growth, which means that Revance is taking market share across the board.

[edcoolidge]

A bet on RVNC stock now is mainly a bet on whether a better toxin will come to market before Revance can fix their balance sheet. There is also a growing risk that CosmeticMD's benefactors will start a damaging price war as their market share declines. However, Daxxify will continue to take share from the existing toxins. That's inevitable. As noted by an analyst on the call, Daxxify ranks last in awareness—but the buzz on social media has been growing. Daxxify is simply a better product and also a better name than Jeuveau—although I expect both to continue to gain share from Botox for now.

I expect RVNC to remain highly sensitive to interest rates until there's more evidence that their guidance will be met. Expectations have certainly been reset now, so if Revance can just meet or exceed their guidance for revenue and expenses for 2024 I expect the stock to be considerably higher by the end of the year.

[edcoolidge]

Based on prices advertised on social media, Daxxify is still priced higher than Botox (assuming 2-to-1 units) in most practices offering it.

[edcoolidge]

Don't sleep on the therapeutic payer progress. As noted on the call, some commercial payers will cover Daxxify in place of Botox for any therapeutic indication. Unlike in aesthetics where many CosmeticMDs are motivated by kickbacks from Galderma or Abbvie to cover their alimony payments, in therapeutics the doctors and payers are incentivized to provide patients the best treatment at the best price—which when it comes to neurotoxins is clearly Daxxify.

[alertmeipp]

Things are heading into the right direction. Reaffirmed minimum 280mm sales, reaffirmed adjusted EBITA positive in 2025. Gaining market share and they haven't really execute this relaunch plan yet. Very promising, especially given how cheap the stock is.

[TimelessGoblin26]

Honestly, this is better than my expectation. I did not expect to see QoQ unit growth given the seasonality. Even after the rebate, Daxxi is still priced higher than or on par with Botox in a lot of practices.

[edcoolidge]

Uh huh. Daxxify units did better QoQ than Jeuveau. You're not fooling anybody anymore about your intentions here. For example, this intentionally misleading one liner you just posted:

“Trending to the low end of the range”…….

[kld2]

I mean, you're not wrong, though eols 1Q24 rev growth wasn't great with respect to last q. I get it, seasonality. But...

[kld2]

Thanks for the clarification. K.

[boraborak38]

Coupon or not…..Daxxify sales weren’t great. It’s a disappointing report. And since I’m long shares, I’m not happy about it.
Evolus is way outperforming peers. I continue to see their traction and so I’m staying very long in EOLS.

[edcoolidge]

EOLS doesn't have filler sales which suffer from worse seasonality. Daxxify grew units QoQ but revenue was impacted by the coupon. It looks like Jeuveau was down slightly on units QoQ.

[kld2]

I don't get it. How does Foley keep his job? Any BOD worth their salt, would have booted him a long time ago.

[DewDiligence]

RVNC reports 1Q24 results—reiterates 2024 guidance:

https://investors.revance.com/investors/Press-Releases/news-details/2024/Revance-Reports-First-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-Provides-Corporate-Update/default.aspx

1Q24 financial highlights

• 1Q24 Daxxify sales were $22.1M, -8% QoQ — due to $2.0M of redeemed coupons and normal seasonality in the aesthetics business — and +44% YoY.

• 1Q24 Daxxify volume (units shipped) was +7% QoQ.

• 1Q24 dermal-filler sales were $29.6M, -14% QoQ and -2% YoY.

• Cash at 3/31/24 was $277.1M, a $23.2M increase relative to 12/30/23 due to $94.0M of net proceeds from the Mar 2024 public offering.

• 1Q24 non-GAAP operating expenses (excluding COGS) were $73.6M, consistent with the low end of RVNC’s full-year 2024 guidance of $290-310M.

2024 guidance

• RVNC re-iterated 2024 guidance for product revenue (Daxxify + RHA) of >=$280M.

• RVNC re-iterated 2024 guidance for non-GAAP operating expenses of $290-310M.

Note: An earlier version of this post (deleted) had a typo with respect to the 1Q24 non-GAAP operating expenses.

[edcoolidge]

Yes, that's expenses. That's good.

[boraborak38]

“Trending to the low end of the range”…….

[kld2]

Oh, indeed I have! Take eols, for example. It affected them, but not as much. Foley loves to spend money. He should've been booted long ago.

[edcoolidge]

I guess you've never heard of seasonality and don't know that Q1 is the weakest quarter of the year. 🤦

It was an OK quarter considering. The Daxxify unit and account growth is encouraging.