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Friday Update: The 'We Talked to China' Edition
YTD Performance:
📉S&P: -6.06%
📉Nasdaq: -9.98%
📉Dow: -5.71
📉Small Caps: -6.74%
🥇Gold: +27.60%
🛢️Oil: -12.45%
💵US Dollar: -8.21%
? Bitcoin: +2.15%
#LWPerformance $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPX #GOLD $GLD #Bitcoin $BTCUSD $IWM $RUT $USD
Have a few 15 day trials to https://optionmillionaires.com - for information send an email to optionmillionaires@gmail.com with ‘trial’ in the header - first come basis
You know its been a good week when you sell your $RDDT calls for 1,4000% only to see them run up 3,000% less than 12 hours later and then watch the same thing happen to your $TSLA calls that you sold(for a loss 😡😡), running 1,500% ...
BTIG raised the firm's price target on Rithm Capital to $16 from $13 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q1 report. The firm believes the stock's more limited downside over the past month compared to most other asset managers and mortgage originators reinforces the "more contained" interest rate risk it sees for Rithm's four business units. The company also has stronger upside and scale benefits from potential acquisitions with valuations having pulled back, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Morning Rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-rant-4-25-2025/
goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooood morning bobber
DOW JONES DOWN 49.67 POINTS, OR 0.12 PERCENT, AT 40,043.73 AFTER MARKET OPEN
NASDAQ UP 14.97 POINTS, OR 0.09 PERCENT, AT 17,181.01 AFTER MARKET OPEN
S&P 500 UP 5.20 POINTS, OR 0.09 PERCENT, AT 5,489.97 AFTER MARKET OPEN
TRUMP: WILL END UP WITH LOTS OF GOOD DEALS
TRUMP: TARIFF PLAN IS DOING VERY WELL
UPB in da HIZZLE
PEP
PepsiCo price target lowered to $140 from $150 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on PepsiCo to $140 from $150 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes there's much focus on North America Food volume softness, which it agrees. The bigger challenge, however, seems NA Food profit de-leverage. It's been substantial and makes it tough to get comfortable with the model, and embrace this low valuation, Wells adds.
Todays largest increases in stock option open interest $AI $MSTR $MRNA $NVDA $TSLA $INTC $AI $GES $WFC
GOOGL, GOOG
Alphabet price target raised to $200 from $185 at BofA
BofA raised the firm's price target on Alphabet to $200 from $185 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported "solid" Q1 results, driven by Search and Subscription upside. Search revenues grew 10% year-over-year, which was important given click growth and competitive concerns, and Cloud grew an in line 28%, the analyst tells investors. For 2025, the firm raised its net revenue view by 5% to $333B and EPS forecast by 16% to $9.72 following last night's report.
GOOGL, GOOG
Alphabet price target lowered to $189 from $205 at Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett lowered the firm's price target on Alphabet to $189 from $205 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After a Q1 earnings report that the firm calls "solid," the concern is the potential reality of macro risks ramping up in the near-term and slowing the ad trajectory, as well as longer-term antitrust and competitive risks from a pair of recent "major losses," the analyst tells investors.
Afternoon Rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-4-24-2025/
$INTC reports earnings after the bell with a $1.74 or 8.14% implied move
Next day performance after the past 8 reports:
📉-2.89
📈+7.8%
📉-26.05%
📉-9.19%
📉-11.9%
📈+9.28%
📈+6.59%
📈+4.01%
Avg. move: 9.71%
$GOOGL reports after the bell today with a $9.3 or 5.86% implied move
Next day performance after the past 8 reports:
📉-7.29%
📈+2.81%
📉-5.03%
📈+10.22%
📉-7.5%
📉-9.5%
📈+5.77%
📉-0.13%
Avg. move: 6.03%
When is this $GME #Bitcoin update coming? 🚀🚀
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) April 24, 2025
SPY, SPX, BA
Boeing 'should default China' for not taking committed planes, Trump says
President Donald Trump stated in a Truth Social post: "Boeing should default China for not taking the beautifully finished planes that China committed to purchase. This is just a small example of what China has done to the USA, for years... And, by the way, Fentanyl continues to pour into our Country from China, through Mexico and Canada, killing hundreds of thousands of our people, and it better stop, NOW!
Fed's Waller: analysts're not likely to see big impacts from tariffs by July 1
Fed's Waller: analysts're not likely to see big impacts from tariffs by July 1 when the tariff pause expires, he said speaking in a Bloomberg TV interview. Firms are currently frozen by tariffs. He expects to have a better sense of the economy and the impacts of tariffs over the second half of the year. He still believes tariffs will have a one-time price level effect that will price through, even if it is fairly large. He also believes that any upward impact on prices could be offset by a demand slowdown. Currently he does not see what would cause inflation to persist beyond the tariff shock. He repeated his comment from last week that he could see more rate cuts and sooner if there is a significant drop in employment.
TRUMP SAYS FENTANYL CONTINUES TO POUR INTO U.S. FROM CHINA, MEXICO AND CANADA
JUST IN: $5 trillion asset manager Fidelity says "Bitcoin supply on exchanges is dropping due to public company purchases."
TSLA
Tesla price target lowered to $410 from $488 at Argus
Argus analyst William Selesky lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $410 from $488 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's lower Q1 earnings largely reflected lower total company revenue, lower vehicle deliveries, and softer gross margin performance, which more than offset higher Energy Generation and Storage revenue and higher Services, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Argus adds however that despite a much weaker-than-expected Q1, it expects Tesla to "manage through" the currently difficult landscape within the global EV industry and emerge as a winner, highlighted by a refreshed product line-up, including a new "affordable" electric vehicle, the Model 2.
APPLE IS PLANNING TO INCREASE IPHONE PRODUCTION IN INDIA BY AROUND 10% THIS YEAR || INDIA ALREADY ASSEMBLING BETWEEN 30 MILLION AND 40 MILLION IPHONES A YEAR - THE INFORMATION
Morning Watch List : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/april-24th-2025-watch-list/
Self-driving cars? How about self-driving trucks? While the robotaxi revolution continues with Alphabet's Waymo (GOOG) (GOOGL) and repeated promises from Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk, autonomous trucking has taken more of a backseat in discussions surrounding the transport of the future. One can already hail a driverless cab in California, Arizona and Texas, but never before has a truck completed a route without a driver behind the wheel.
Until now: Similar to the (really) early days of robotaxis, a pair of hands was needed inside a robotruck to take over in case of a traffic incident, failure, or emergency. Things are now changing as Aurora Innovation (AUR) takes the next step in removing safety drivers from its vehicles. By the end of this month, the company plans on putting its first fully autonomous truck on a 200-mile stretch of the I-45, a notable freight route between Dallas and Houston, and hopes to have tens more on the road by the end of 2025.
It's a big deal. Trucking accounts for 70% of all freight moved in the United States, leading to the old slogan, "If you got it, a truck brought it." Demand is only expected to increase in the coming years at a time when the industry is experiencing driver shortages and high turnover rates. If they deliver on their promise, driverless trucks can help tackle these problems, as well as combat rising costs and supply chain challenges.
About the company: Aurora (AUR) was founded in 2017 by ex-Waymo tech chief Chris Urmson, Tesla Autopilot head Sterling Anderson, and Drew Bagnell, who helped lead Uber's self-driving division. While it has experienced several delays and pushed-back timelines, Aurora has already inked partnerships with FedEx (FDX) and Uber Freight (UBER), and is one of the only pure-play autonomous vehicle stocks in the market. The next Tesla? Caution warranted? See what Seeking Alpha analysts are saying as Aurora (AUR) trades at around $6 per share.
What else is happening...
Gold falls by most since 2021 as Trump softens stance.
Some tariff relief for carmakers after industry pushback?
Google orders remote staff to return to office or else.
Palantir (PLTR) partners to bring Google Cloud to FedStart.
$1T valuation 'dependent on executing well' - Netflix co-CEO.
Amazon's (AMZN) Starlink competitor is running behind schedule.
Boeing (BA) downplays effect of China tensions on deliveries.
First time Chipotle (CMG) same store sales contract in five years.
OPEC+ discord, more production hikes weigh on crude prices.
Trump: Zelenskyy is prolonging war by resisting calls to cede Crimea.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China flat. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude +0.9% to $62.82. Gold +1.5% to $3,342.70. Bitcoin -1.2% to $92,477.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 4.35%.
On The Calendar
Companies reporting today include Procter & Gamble (PG) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
U.S INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 222K VS 215K PREVIOUS; EST 222K
U.S CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL: 1841K VS 1885K PREVIOUS; EST 1869K
U.S CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.0% VS 0.7% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%
U.S DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 9.2% VS 0.9% PREVIOUS; EST 2.1%
U.S CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY (MAR) ACTUAL: -0.03 VS 0.18 PREVIOUS
U.S DURABLES EXCLUDING DEFENSE (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 10.4% VS 0.8% PREIVOUS; EST 0.2%
U.S GOODS ORDERS NON DEFENSE EX AIR (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.1% VS -0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.2%
HC Wainwright & Co. Reiterates Buy $VKTX w/ $102 Price Target
gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooood morning!!! bobber!!
Todays largest decreases in stock option open interest $MMM $COIN $LCID $MSTR $AAL $RIOT $WOLF $MRNA $AAPL $PARA
tSCO
Tractor Supply reports Q1 EPS 34c, consensus 37c
Reports Q1 revenue $3.47B, consensus $3.53B. "As the year unfolds amid increasing volatility, our conviction in Tractor Supply's resilient and durable business model remains strong. We have a long track record of navigating uncertain environments, and we believe we are well-positioned to do so once again. Tractor Supply is uniquely differentiated by our needs-based product categories, our predominantly U.S.-sourced assortment, deep and trusted vendor relationships and a nimble, scalable supply chain," said CEO Hal Lawton. "Since issuing our initial 2025 outlook, there has been a notable increase in uncertainty, in particular the introduction of new tariffs. In response, we are updating the range of our full-year outlook and providing guidance for the second quarter. I am deeply appreciative of our 52,000 Team Members for their unwavering dedication and passion for Life Out Here."
NOW
ServiceNow price target lowered to $1,003 from $1,021 at Bernstein
Afternoon Update - Tariff on, tariff off edition
Afternoon Rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-4-23-2025/
Feels like the market can be up or down 3% on any given day simply because Trump's sunny-side egg at breakfast was perfect or broke before it got to the table
LVS
Las Vegas Sands options imply 6.2% move in share price post-earnings
Pre-earnings options volume in Las Vegas Sands is 2.0x normal with calls leading puts 4:3. Implied volatility suggests the market is anticipating a move near 6.2%, or $2.18, after results are released. Median move over the past eight quarters is 2.9%.
Prices increased across Districts since last report, Fed says in Beige Book
The Fed's latest Beige Book report states in part: "Employment was little changed to up slightly in most Districts, with one District reporting a modest increase, four reporting a slight increase, four reporting no change, and three reporting a slight decline. This is a slight deterioration from the previous report with a few more Districts reporting declines. Hiring was generally slower for consumer-facing firms than for business-to-business firms... Prices increased across Districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest and six characterizing it as moderate, similar to the previous report. Most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs. Many firms have already received notices from suppliers that costs would be increasing. Firms reported adding tariff surcharges or shortening pricing horizons to account for uncertain trade policy. Most businesses expected to pass through additional costs to customers. However, there were reports about margin compression amid increased costs, as demand remained tepid in some sectors, especially for consumer-facing firms."
Gordon Johnson makes his PT's on $TSLA like a Supermarket
I guess things you do when you have been wrong to the tune of thousands %
GLJ Research Maintains Sell $TSLA - lowers PT to $19.05 from $24.86
The bottom is in pic.twitter.com/LUyYbor1Fy
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) April 23, 2025
RDDT paying
$RDDT chickens counted, left a few more to hatch. https://t.co/vGxfaDmb6N pic.twitter.com/bfze9Zqanz
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) April 23, 2025
RH paying
$RH paying 💰💰💰 pic.twitter.com/MCe5k50T3t
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) April 23, 2025
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