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Some implied moves for the start of the Q3 #earnings season next week:
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/some-implied-moves-for-earnings-next-week-oct-7th-oct-11th/
$JPM 3.7%
$WFC 4.6%
$BLK 3.0%
$BK 4.4%
$FAST 6.1%
$PEP 3.2%
$HELE 16.5%
$APLD 20.8%
$AZZ 7.3%
$TLRY 15.4%
$DPZ 7.7%
$DAL 6.5%
$AEHR 20.0%
Weight-Loss Drugs Are Everywhere Now. How the GLP-1 Copycats Took Over.
@barronsonline
https://www.barrons.com/articles/weight-loss-obesity-wegovy-zepbound-glp-1-drugs-b57149d7?mod=past_editions
$NVO $LLY $HIMS
Last Week's Performance:
📈S&P: +0.22%
📈Nasdaq: +0.10%
📈Dow: +0.09%
📉Small Caps: -0.54%
🥇Gold: -0.01%
🛢️Oil: +9.09%
💵US Dollar: +2.16%
? Bitcoin: -5.12%
#LWPerformance $SPY $QQQ $DIA $SPX #GOLD $GLD #Bitcoin $BTCUSD $IWM $RUT $USD
Afternoon rant -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-afternoon-rant-october-4th-2024/
HOLY FREAKING SH!T....BREACHED $42 OMG
CHSN UP$26 HOLY MOLY LOD IS $2
Rock n ROLLLL
Have a few 15 day trials to https://optionmillionaires.com - for information send an email to optionmillionaires@gmail.com with ‘trial’ in the header - first come basis
Thank You -my fly list follows everything- for years...you guys are awesome
All out the $WYNN weekly calls - still have the Oct 18th $115s accidentally shared here on Tuesday( .27 entry now $1.00) pic.twitter.com/LoC2V53ZVW
— Option Millionaires (@OMillionaires) October 4, 2024
AMD $170z
it's winning! WYNN nhod
magic ball tells me..ride the _ _ _ L
Pretty remarkable ->
NEW: we may have passed peak obesity 🎉📈📉🙏
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) October 4, 2024
In what might be one of the most significant trends I have ever charted, the US obesity rate fell last year. pic.twitter.com/RttePO0EJQ
Looking Ahead: the inflation data are in view
Looking Ahead: the inflation data are in view next week and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. Analysts expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 B in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities. Meanwhile, another earnings season looms.
Baidu call volume above normal and directionally bullish
Bullish option flow detected in Baidu with 14,405 calls trading, 1.1x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 3 points to 57.65%. Nov-24 120 calls and 10/11 weekly 149 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 2,200 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.29. Earnings are expected on November 26t
yeah boss!
Fed's Goolsbee said this jobs report was "superb,"
Fed's Goolsbee said this jobs report was "superb," in comments on Bloomberg TV. He fully agreed with what Chair Powell said at the September 18 press conference that the sole focus previously was to bring price pressures down. Now the risks are more balanced. Rather than discuss the likely decision next month, he said he is taking a longer run approach. And he warned not to lose sight of the longer thread, including the dot plot which shows most of the FOMC looking for rates to come down a lot over the next 12 months, assuming inflation continues to subside. He emphasized, thought, that there are crosscurrents in the economy and noted the potential that inflation might even undershoot the 2% target. Analysts are still a long way from the "settling point" on rates, he added, and there is both time and runway to get there. A lot will depend on productivity too. But more reports like today's would give him more confidence on the job market.
APOG skyscraper-rocketing up $15.6 calls on fire
eyeball explosion! lol looks good
Pre-market rant if you missed -> https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-pre-market-rant-october-4th-2024/
Fed policy outlook: the jobs report has significantly reduced chances for another jumbo -50 bps this year to almost zero. The implied November rate dropped to -27 bps from -33 bps yesterday, while the December contract is at -57 bps from -66 bps Thursday, with January 2025 now at -80 bps versus -95 bps. Our forecast has been for two more quarter point increases in November and December as the FOMC is recalibrating policy given deceleration in inflation and is not easing policy to ward off a recession. With this report in its back pocket, the November rate decision depends on upcoming inflation numbers including next week's CPI And PPI, as well as the next batch of reports, including October payrolls on November 1.
254,000 jobs were added in September, well above the estimate of 132,500. That was the 45th consecutive month of jobs growth in the US.
As the Federal Reserve is now more confident that inflation is sustainably easing toward 2%, it is shifting some of its attention to the "maximum employment" part of its dual mandate. The Labor Department's closely watched nonfarm payrolls report due this morning is expected to show that the labor market is continuing to ease.
Employment check: In recent months, job creation activity has moderated and the unemployment rate has risen, though it's still at a historically low level. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said, "we do not seek nor welcome further cooling in labor market conditions," indicating that jobs have become more of a concern. This week saw two key data points - job openings unexpectedly jumped in August, while private nonfarm payrolls strengthened more than expected in September.
What to expect: The nonfarm payrolls number is expected to show 132.5K jobs were added in September, down from 142K in August. The consensus may be on the low side, according to Sam Millette, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network, who wouldn't be surprised by a move closer to 200K. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, is anticipating a subdued print of 120K, noting the slower pace of hiring, lower quits rate and smaller wage boost for people who change jobs.
SA commentary: "The markets may have fallen into a false sense of security ahead of the September job report," cautioned Michael Kramer, who manages Investing Group Leader Mott Capital. While continuing jobless claims have remained calm, the market appears to have taken that to mean that the labor market is fine. "This leaves the market vulnerable to an upside surprise in the unemployment rate because the claims data doesn't capture everything that goes into rising unemployment."
What else is happening...
Port strike ends: Workers reach tentative deal with 62% wage hike.
Report: Spirit (SAVE) in talks with creditors for bankruptcy filing.
Tesla's (TSLA) information chief exits ahead of robotaxi event.
Reality check: Duke delays shutting largest coal-fired plant.
OpenAI discloses new $4B credit facility with bank consortium.
Sen. Warren seeks growth limits on Citi (C) in letter to OCC.
GOP senators probe New York Fed on Iraq bank flows to Iran.
Lilly (LLY) GLP-1 shortage ends, Hims & Hers (HIMS) slides.
AbbVie (ABBV) cuts earnings forecast due to R&D expenses.
Risk is on for Wall Street as traders pour money into ETFs.
Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.2%. Hong Kong +2.8%. China closed. India -1%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow flat. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +1.3% to $74.64. Gold flat at $2,679.40. Bitcoin +1% to $61,302.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1 bp to 3.86%.
Today's Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Employment Situation
09:00 AM Fed's Williams Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
US LABOR SEP NONFARM PAYROLLS +254K; CONSENSUS +150K
US SEP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.1%; CONSENSUS 4.2%
US SEP AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +0.37%, OR +$0.13 TO $35.36; OVER YEAR +3.97%
US SEP PRIVATE SECTOR PAYROLLS +223K AND GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS +31K
US SEP AVERAGE WORKWEEK -0.1 HOUR TO 34.2 HOURS
US AUG PAYROLLS REVISED TO +159K; JUL REVISED TO +144K
U.S NONFARM PAYROLLS (SEP) ACTUAL: 254K VS 142K PREVIOUS; EST 150K
which way? we'll know in minutes WYNN is winning....
Buckle up. Traders are wagering on a big swing in the stock market after the monthly jobs report.
Market participants are betting on a 1% move for the S&P 500, according to Option Research & Technology Services.
Traders are pricing in a roughly 1.7% move in the Russell 2000, which is typically sensitive to news about the economy.
The anticipated movement for the S&P 500 is larger than the 0.8% average after jobs reports over the past year, according to Citi data.
GM FOLKSSSSS
Spirit Airlines sinks 37% to $1.41 after WSJ report of bankruptcy talks
APLE
Apple Hospitality named 'Top Pick' in lodging REITs at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer named Apple Hospitality REIT the firm's "Top Pick" in the lodging real estate investment trust sector. The company has a "high-quality portfolio, well-covered dividend, strong balance sheet, and trades at an inexpensive valuation compared with history," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Apple's diversity across 87 markets should help drive "strong, consistent performance" from multiple demand generators. It sees margin upside from improving cost inflation and reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares with a $17 price target.
🔼🔼🔼🔼 This weeks largest increases in stock option open interst $RLX $NVDA $OPEN $DASH $COIN $JD $TSLA $SMCI
European stock markets are narrowly mixed, as markets wait for key U.S. data while eyeing developments in the Middle East. U.K. equities underperformed with Gilts, after cautious comments from BoE Chief Economist Pill, who cautioned against accelerated cuts. The remarks seemed to balance Bailey's dovish remarks yesterday, although the BoE President already overruled Pill in August and could do so again. The 10-year Gilt yield still jumped 5.3 bp today, alongside gains of 4.9 bp and 1.5 bp respectively and 10-year Bund and Treasury yields. The short end underperformed across Europe and the U.S. ahead of U.S. jobs data. The DXY is slightly lower at 101.86, but the index is still on course to post the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months. The front end WTI contract has risen to USD 74.80 per barrel, while gold is trading at USD 2659.25 per ounce.
Snap price target lowered to $14 from $15 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Snap to $14 from $15 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Wells Fargo sees an in line to slightly better print and Q4 guidance for Snap, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm views the app relaunch as "critical" to engagement acceleration, and believes investors remain cautious with concerns on a potential adverse impact on 2025 revenue.
WMB
Williams upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley upgraded Williams to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $58, up from $52. The firm sees "several areas of underappreciated growth" that should de-risk Williams' ability to achieve 5%-7% annual EBITDA growth and drive a further re-rating of the shares. Midstream investors are likely to place an increased emphasis on where growth is strongest and most visible, and Williams' natural gas pipeline assets are becoming more essential to ensuring powering grid stability and meeting new natural gas demand sources, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
CURB
Curbline Properties initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Michael Mueller initiated coverage of Curbline Properties with an Overweight rating and $25 price target. The company's strategy in the strip center real estate investment trust space is unique as it focuses on smaller-format, unanchored, convenience centers that are generally situated along the curbline of major streets and intersections and have easy access, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm likes the business and the potential for the stock.
Wedbush cuts Domino's Pizza target, removes from 'Best Ideas List'
Wedbush lowered the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza (DPZ) to $470 from $510 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm reduced Q3 domestic same-store-sales growth estimate as Domino's digests the impact of the burger's "aggressive pivot to value." The buyer's focus on value, led by McDonald's (MCD), will limit Domino's transaction share gains in the second half of 2024, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Therefore, the firm removed Domino' from the Wedbush Best Ideas List.
GOOGL, GOOG, HYMTF
Hyundai, Waymo enter multi-year pact to integrate Waymo Driver into Ioniq 5 SUV
Hyundai Motor (HYMTF) and Waymo (GOOGL) announced they have entered into a multi-year, strategic partnership. In the first phase of this partnership, the companies will integrate Waymo's sixth generation fully autonomous technology - the Waymo Driver - into Hyundai's all-electric Ioniq 5 SUV, which will be added to the Waymo One fleet over time. The Ioniq 5 vehicles destined for the Waymo fleet will be assembled at the new Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America EV manufacturing facility in Georgia and then integrated with Waymo's autonomous technology. The companies plan to produce a fleet of Ioniq 5s equipped with Waymo's technology in significant volume over multiple years to support Waymo One's growing scale. Initial on-road testing with Waymo-enabled Ioniq 5s will begin by late 2025 and become available to Waymo One riders in the years to follow. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 will be delivered to Waymo with specific autonomous-ready modifications like redundant hardware and power doors.
AMZN, RIVN
JMP details how Amazon can save up to $20B annually
JMP Securities analyst Nicholas Jones says it is possible for Amazon.com (AMZN) to save more than $20B annually by deploying autonomous technology combined with electric combination trucks for middle-mile transport and replacing internal combustion engine delivery vans with electric Rivian Automotive (RIVN) delivery vans. Fuel cost tends to be 25%-30% of the per mile costs in middle-mile and last-mile delivery, while electric vehicles can generate a nearly 50% reduction in per-mile energy costs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JMP views this as a medium- to long-term opportunity for Amazon. More near term, as the company converts its last-mile fleet to electric Rivian fans, there is potential for up to $7B of annual savings, globally, contends the firm. Amazon has deployed 15,000 Rivian vans in the U.S. and thousands across Europe, according to JMP. The firm has an Outperform rating on Amazon with a $265 price target.
YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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