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It’s more than being short he knows a lot of info. I am sticking to it’s something personal
I began under a different moniker on this site that was blocked and messages deleted for some reason so I began posting under madcow in 2017 but everyone at the time knew the transition both on IHUB and SA as I was a prolific poster of information including notifying all the readers 6 months before the exact amount of the $21.5m scam that was pulled on Capstone.
SLC
I started as a long here under Brad and Cory. I established a long position $6.xx and posted all my trades in real time with screen shots of my trades on Interactive Brokers. I posted in real time my sells beginning $12.88 and up to $14.00. I offered 5,000 share private trades on this board to anyone on the other side as my due diligence on this equity was sophisticated. I have received several private messages from Private Capital money managers and Hedge Funds offering to exchange research and information on Seeking Alpha as I post under Goldberg Stein and have several hundred messages on that site regarding MSLP. I went short and covered my entire position long ago beginning at $.75 and all the way down to pennies. All of this info was posted in real time with screen shots of my trades. BTW....none of my detractors ever took me up on my 5,000 private trade offers when the equity was trading for around $13.xx
Read the history. Madcow has been short here for ages, and does his best to support his position.
MadCow you still haven’t answered the question, is there something personal going on.
So if you like the numbers and think MSLP is a good investment, then buy shares. Since there has only been one single trade (for $600) in the entire week after earnings, you should be at the front of the line. FIVE CONSECUTIVE trading sessions (including today) and only ONE SINGLE $600 trade. Seven trading sessions (including today) and $700 total trade value. The MM is dropping the "ask" and the "bid" everyday and that looks like the opportunity of a lifetime for you being so bullish on this stock. Buy on the "ask" and sell on the "bid" and you only lose -40% if you find a bid at your volume. Why reply to my messages? My one and only reply to you. Good luck.
Madcow i have been doing some research on the new filing. They have over 1.6 million dollars in beverage sales with out launching fitmiss. The alliance group is the real deal. I am wondering why you have so much hate. There must be something personal you’re not telling the group.
Circling the drain...
Defamation i could be wrong
MSLP gross margins are probable a negative number because they don't pay the supplier and just keep and report 100% of the revenue. Combat Crunch is the latest offering. Look at how many millions Ryan STOLE again yet revenues are reported like a legit business that MSLP is NOT. What's another $7m owed on revenue already received and reported and not paid for? YES.....Ryan STOLE another $7M in the Ponzi Scheme.
Ryan had to post a personal bond on a significant portion of the ThermoLife appeal. A couple weeks ago the AZ Supreme Court ruled for ThermoLife as final judgement. Now Ryan has to either pay the settlement via the bond company (default and the bond company going after him, very unlikely like a bail bondsman coming to your home) or MSLP has to pay in Q2. I love how AZ courts work. Not like those CA and UK courts (Man Footy) that let MSLP not pay bills and appeal for free.
That is $1.9m and the court affirmed ThermoLife's request for attorney's fees. Poor RyRy.
Why doesn't Ryan release who the preferred bond holders are ? They now control the bankruptcy. I wonder why the pieces are being moved into place.....
Since earnings, MSLP has one single posted trade of $600 in FOUR trading days (sessions).
This is a lonely equity if you are a holder of shares.
Those 10K and Q3 10Q numbers reflected the bulk of the initial channel stuff took place in Q3 2021. That makes the Q1 2022 even worse and the fact after 9 months after launch only $31k of sales occurred when added re-orders from existing customers AND any new customers looking to offer MSLP Energy Drinks. Dismal is an understatement.
What about the fact that Combat Crunch Bars are no longer in inventory or being offered for sale through any channel?
What about the fact delinquent Ryan is now being subsidized $7k a month for rental home after I posted the screenshot of his delinquency on his personal home?
How many other CEO's are having the company pay for personal expenses? Is there a MSLP diaper allowance going to Ryan too?
It's a pretty straightforward comparison of the 2021 10-K vs. the Q1 2022 10-Q. You can easily find the numbers in those two reports here: https://www.musclepharmcorp.com/MSLP/ir-kit/5049
It may take another quarter for the initial distribution and follow-up orders to smooth out and be truly predictive of future activity (depending on when in Q4 that channel stuffing actually occurred), but the numbers themselves are right there in black and white.
MadCow has been very quite since he has been called out.
Madcow where are you getting your numbers. FAKE NEWS
A lot can be learned by looking at the reported numbers on MSLP Energy Drink.
MSLP Energy Drink launched first in International second half of 2021.
Posted $467,000 in sales in initial channel stuffing and sales in those 6 months
Now after that channel stuffing, here are the numbers from the first 3 months of 2022 including 3 months of "new" sales opportunities attempting to roll out the product to 8 billion people world wide.
$31,000
There have been essentially ZERO reorders from the legacy retailers and ZERO new "sales" to any potential new retailers looking for an MSLP Energy Product.
A lot can be learned in the energy in a can segment from Bang...
https://www.mashed.com/737035/the-untold-truth-of-bang-energy-drinks/
Amazon?
Went to amazon to shop for the Quest Bar killer MusclePharm Combat Crunch.
Here is the result:
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=combat+crunch+protein+bars&crid=22Z09YXWJ5M90&sprefix=combat+crunch+%2Caps%2C409&ref=nb_sb_ss_mission-aware-v1_1_14
No more Combat Crunch bars....
According to the Conference Call, when asked in Q & A, Ryan stated that they are looking for new supplier and hopefully they can find someone to manufacture a a new CC bar in Q3 since Bakery Barn (the former supplier to MSLP) and another supplier of ingredients for Combat Crunch bars are left holding over $4m in unpaid invoices and both have filed suit against Ryan.
I bet Quest is breathing a sigh of relief......;)
But what about the Energy Drinks?
Wow!
Initial Channel Stuff in International Market showed MSLP 'sold' $467,000K in Q3, 4 2021
Now how many sales occurred in Q1 2022? Hold on to your wallets.....
$31,000 in total sales
From $467,000 initial channel stuff and 6 months later only $31,000 in sales. This includes any new international sales channels AND any phantom replenishing of sold stock.
Game over
On May 4, 2022 MSLP lost its final appeal and was ordered to pay ThermoLife $1.9m Arizona Supreme Court judgement immediately.
Dig in the sofa cushions Ryan.....wait...he sold the sofa
Despite have literally no cash on the books ($500k) and owing $48m to suppliers and debt holders due now, MSLP only has $229k worth of finished inventory on the shelves to sell.
Wow!!!!!!!
No wonder there are countless lawsuits and settlements that MSLP currently refuses and cannot pay.
Costco is basically all that is left. Bakery Barn the manufacturer and supplier of MSLP Combat Crunch Bar was stiffed by Ryan (again) and has sued MSLP for million$ (again)
Costco now accounts for ~60% of all MSLP revenue (was 29% in Q1 2021) and that is likely the skinniest of margin customer to be affiliated. No wonder LOSSES have exploded. Every $1 of revenue is now losing .50 cents.
MSLP lost over $6m in the past 90 days.
International Revenue in Q1 went from $3.8m in 2021 to just $700k in 2021.
Is there a pulse left?
Only lost -$6.3m in Q1. $13m in revenue so Ryan loses .50 cents for every $1 in revenue. No wonder the bold "going concern" warning. Only $500,000 in cash in coffer and another $8m of liabilities and debt was added just the past 90 days.
Q1 Financials due yesterday. Ho hum....must be one those logistic shortage supply chain issues that Biden can fix.
Bakery Barn, the manufacturer of the MSLP Combat Crunch bar, sues Ryan AGAIN for non payment. Same dog, same tricks. Remember the terrible customer feedback when Bakery Barn stopped producing the CC Bar and Ryan found a different supplier?
Remember when I posted the screenshots showing Ryan was delinquent on his personal property taxes?
Now look at this little line item that shows up in filing:
Wow......Financial metrics for 2021
Cost of Goods Sold 90%
leaving 10% for cash flow.
Sales and Admin 20%
Sales Cost 10%
Before any Financing costs (another ~18%), MSLP is losing .20 cents on every $1.00 of sales.
Sales are crashing at MSLP's largest retailer, Costco.
2020 Costco was ~$27m
2021 Costo was ~$18m
Costco sales down -$9m YOY -33%.
Wait until you see the huge Interest Cost explode even higher as the private placement in December begin accruing interest in Q1 and 2 of 2022.
Somebody's been dumping?
When Sales have declined -40% YOY
it's just to difficult to file financials in the allotted 90 days. Shareholders are clearly way down the priority list.
Revenue?
COGS is 100% before any expenses. Commission structure on ED is outrageous and based on gross profit before any expenses. MSLP is paying 18% to 200% APR and is upside down over $30m just taking AR and subtracting APayable. The lawsuits never end and neither do the legal expenses and settlements. MSLP suppliers are owed millions in past due invoices and can cut off MSLP again at any time.
No game changers on the horizon by even the most optimistic imaginations.
I think the revenue from the energy drinks will change things here...may take a couple years though?
but made the dumb decision to make the Arnold Series the cheapest and least quality product in the entire MSLP line.
Best thing they ever had was that deal with Arnold a few years back.
I don't understand why Drex keeps doing it. I had long suspected he had a sell play in mind, and was just trying to prop things up and convert debt until a suitor came in to save the day and let him recoup. At this point, there isn't anything left worth buying, Drex has a shit ton of illiquid equity, and even with an extortionate APR is nowhere near generating enough cash flow to pay himself back. I reckon this whole thing has now become an ego trip, and he's content to keep throwing cash at it (especially when it's not his) to avoid admitting defeat.
The Amerop complaint is interesting. The prayer is all about damages, not some sort of equitable relief. The content of the complaint and specifically the inclusion of the entirety of the unexecuted agreement in conjunction with naming Drex individually points towards piercing the veil, and pursuing Drex directly for damages (in the form of stock, no doubt) - either they once again hit the 10% threshold and resurrect the NV case, or they get enough from Drex to force a seat at the table and satisfy their concerns.
I've sold off the vast majority of my holdings here, but retained enough to be interested, if not 'invested' in the outcome...
It just goes to show how broke the coffers are. They just closed a "net" $6m LOC several weeks ago and not only is that money gone but another $3m is needed to fund the test market for the new Energy Drink in "select Costco's in Hawaii and SoCal". The question is do the two former Energy Drink execs get that astronomical gross commission on those potential sales?
I bet it hardly matter though, as the "special pricing" will likely be a dollar for dollar wash on COGS just like the protein powder at Costco. After the real business expenses, the losses just keep accumulating just like the lawsuits.
Sneak the bad news under the guise of darkness.
Q4 revenue has been informally reported as $9m
Now compare that to already anemic Q4 revenue for last year that was $15m.
That is a -40% decline in the last 12 months.
No wonder Amerop and White Winston are filing more lawsuits against Ryan when they offered the shareholders to purchase all the outstanding debt for $2.00 a share and Ryan converted it all for pennies AND is paying himself 18% interest on all the Costco invoices that are guaranteed to be paid. Literally no risk financing. Since Ryan couldn't even pay his personal home property tax on time, he is probably borrowing money from a family member or friend for a little less than 18% and arbitraging the margin.
Shareholders again are being screwed. Let's see what happens now that White Winston has filed suit in their hometown on the East Coast.
Muti-pack coming...maybe they can get this into Costco...
MusclePharm Combat Energy Drink (16oz)- Variety Pack, 12 Cans https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09R531Z8N/ref=cm_sw_r_apan_glt_i_0PX55YGRN9BJ4KGW242R
1) Nothing in your reply contradicts anything that I said. The company has no chance of being profitable based on selling products; the only way Drex can get any ROI (aside from his salary and prior "interest") is to sell it. Given they don't have any unencumbered physical assets and are saddled with unprofitable meh product, the distribution network looks like the only viable asset.
2) At no point did I mention AB - no clue where that tangent came from. Monster acquired CANarchy to be able to break into the beer brewing/distribution space, not AB.
The current world-wide energy drink market is roughly 60 billion a year with a CAGR of 7-9% per year.
1% of 60 billion is 600 million.
Not sure if this company can execute a business plan, but 1% seems achievable with a couple of Rockstar Execs. on board!
That is the most confused analysis I've ever read.
Firstly, MSLP "already" has an Amazon partnership (basically stocks Combat Crunch at Amazon distribution centers for drop shipment) so the recent PR is immaterial as Combat Crunch sales have declined to less than $4m annual through ALL SALES CHANNELS. These new liquid products will fail as well after the initial channel stuffing.
Secondly, Anheizer Busch went on a feeding frenzy of craft beer breweries. AB didn't acquire them because the small breweries HAD a significant distribution network but the exact opposite. To expand the small breweries distribution network and PROTECT current AB brands PRICING in a series of local markets. 95% of all beer on the grocery stores aisles are owned by just TWO companies and these companies acquire to simply protect price. This has nothing to do with MusclePharms product or markets or even business model.
As for the two former Rockstar employees, they were "let go" during the acquisition as they were non essential and brought nothing to the table.
With MSLP, they are on temporary independent contracts that I've shown will provide no value to shareholders as ANY and ALL sales they may be able to provide are subject to the onerous gross commission scale. Besides Ryan only pivoted to this in response to the complete fallout of capital raising and the fact his personal capital was depleted (see personal home property tax delinquent).
It's his Hail Mary and the amazing YOY decline in MSLP sales (now down over -70% since Ryan became CEO) is the exact OPPOSITE of what any acquirer would be looking for. Ryan's immense dilution and hence WW lawsuits have positioned those two parties to square off in bankruptcy court auction.
Between this and today's PR, it seems apparent that they are developing the distribution network as their primary product - not any of the actual consumables.
Drex's employment contracts have long been predicated on his ability to sell the company. They clearly can't run a profitable enterprise, and their product offerings are rehashes of the multitude of comparables already choking the marketplace. What they can do (with their crack team of former Moster execs) is build a stem-to-stern supply chain that could be leveraged by another company (with the resources and management to be successful) looking to break into a new market.
Ironically, Monster themselves did this by acquiring CANarchy Craft Brewery Collective in January, giving them instant access to the Western US microbrewery market. Be looking for the next 4loko any day now.
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