While traditional thinking might indicate just what you have said and history may have shown this to be the case each year, this market has not acted rationally for some time.
Good to see ya post here. This used to be a good forum for earnings. I had pretty much quit posting here because no one else much did. Still making good money on earnings plays, just not posting.
That having been said....Here is one upcomming that I have interest in and have a small position remaining.
CPY
It has had a good move up and even with Ramius selling up to 15% of volume each day until they finish their planned sell ( about 100K left last time I calculated it) the PPS remains around this mark.
I suspect any strong move will be somewhat tempered by the selling on volume increase that usually comes with earnings. I am somewhat hopeful of a decent upside surprise and perhaps even show a profit. This would be great for this stock.
Below is some info I posted elsewhere not long ago.
Ramius exiting still has about 100K overhead on the stock but can only sell 15% of daily vol
According to Yahoo, lone analyst has projections of $2.38 for this fiscal yr and $3.05 for next
Debt load is high but is getting paid down. Divy is nice and my .16 per share should arrive next week
I am hopeful that this Q will beat estimates of a loss especially with the .23 or so from Easter showing up. In any case, the comps should read very well since comps from last Q2 were a loss of .53
Net deferral of Easter-related sales to the second quarter reduced EPS in the first quarter by $0.23 per diluted share.
...from Q1 released June 11, 2009
"Our strong first-quarter results amid very difficult economic and industry conditions are a testament to the success of our distinctive, high-quality product offerings and aggressive marketing efforts as well as the significant added value of our state-of-the-art digital technology platform," said Renato Cataldo, president and chief executive officer. "We are very encouraged by our results to date as well as our progress on various customer indicators and productivity metrics we track internally. As a result, we expect to see improved gains in earnings and cash flow over the course of the year even as we continue to experience fierce economic headwinds."
Comparable same-store sales, excluding impacts of revenue deferral adjustments, foreign currency translation, loyalty program revenue deferral and store closures, increase 1% versus the prior-year first quarter.
First-quarter PictureMe Portrait Studio® brand (PMPS) comparable store sales, as adjusted, increase 14% year-over-year
First-quarter Sears Portrait Studio brand (SPS) comparable store sales, as adjusted, decrease 11% year-over-year
First-quarter Adjusted EBITDA increases to $11.5 million versus $10.5 million in the prior-year period despite significant deferral of sales and EBITDA to the second quarter as a result of the late Easter.
Net deferral to the second quarter of approximately $3.7 million in sales associated with the timing of Easter in 2009 reduced Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter by $2.4 million.
First-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) increases to $0.34 compared with a loss of ($0.04) a year ago despite large negative impact of Easter-related deferral.
Net deferral of Easter-related sales to the second quarter reduced EPS in the first quarter by $0.23 per diluted share.
Strong results in the first quarter reflect the successful integration and upgrade of the PMPS studios as well as the impact of cost reductions and productivity improvements implemented throughout the organization.
The Company presently expects to pay down a substantial portion of its term debt before the end of the fiscal year. A prepayment of $5 million will be made next week.
