Marketgems Earnings Trader- Trading Strong or Weak Earnings Growth (MKTGEMS)

[jjkool_01]

GB: Excellent earnings surprise. Big +22% AH gap up on several large block buys. I bought just before close but did not get it posted here before the close. I think it has room to climb beyond the large gap. It had fallen quite a bit from a miss last Q.

[jjkool_01]

glad I only shorted a small amount. I took cover early when things did not behave the way I thought they should have. Biggest mistake was not going long immediately thereafter.

[bbgold]

SHRP showing potential support
The last island bottom at 10 was a good show of support and might be showing some recovery, possibly due to short covering also. Too early to tell if a long term reversal but a sign that the sellers are not leading the way here. Prior resistance levels were 13, 14, 15 so see if they are starting to be recovered as support or continue as resistance. A risky short here imo unless 13 continues as resistance. Remember the old saying "Buy the Breakouts and Sell the Breakdowns" and remember to look at both short and long term timeframes.
Good Trading!
Sincerely, Bob :^)

[jjkool_01]

bb is always informative, insightful and helpful

[npoz]

bb: thanks for your post, very informative! <eom>

np

[jjkool_01]

SHRP taking short into earnings 12.88, declining sales, profits, same store sales...only concern is large block holders Firebrand, Knightpoint or others battling for this, and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why they would at this level

[bbgold]

YHOO has been volatile
The last small gap up has been holding support but it needs to recover 32 and break over 33 again. Earnings might be the catalyst but can always be a surprise so the Straddle with 32.50 Calls and 30 Puts would be the Safest and see if enough movement to cover the costs. Look at May contracts though as you want to have time for the price to react. The premiums for an extra month of price movement do not seem that high if YHOO stays volatile. An extreme Straddle would be the May 35 Calls and 27.50 Puts but for near $1 a side the May 32.50 Calls and 30 Puts should get enough movement to be profitable.
Good Trading!
Sincerely, Bob :^)

[npoz]

What do you guys think, Yhoo earnings coming up, dud? Looking at the 32.50call, 30.00 puts, apr exp.

[Growth And Value]

Thanks for your input!!

I just bought some shares based on the EPS numbers. One positive sign is that this time there has been big volume on the upside. A sign institutional investors buying? Maybe.

In my opinion, it still has a low valuation based on P/S ratio of 2.12.

The growth in revenues and net income resulted from increased production of national defense products and both space vehicle and satellite components.

Thanks again for your analysis! I'll have to keep a close eye on it!!

Good Luck!!!

[bbgold]

HSR testing a prior high

A nice reaction to it's earnings and could have been anticipated from it's last report reaction. Now you want to keep a good look at how prior spike highs have reacted with the stock, with most of them pulling back to consolidate until the next report. The Safest move here would be to lock in some profits ahead of that pullback. Most low $ plays look for $5 as a next up support level and that would also be a retrace to test the gap support. Setting a stop at $6 might be in order here and then look for support at $6 and $5 to hold to stay bullish. A breakout over 6.50 that holds support would also be bullish but Safest to lock in most here imo.

Good Luck and Good Trading!

[Growth And Value]

HSR up nicely on EPS news. Still, I think it will go higher since sales growth was 84% over last year's quarter and 32% sequentially. EPS was 0.11 vs .03 267% growth.

The forward P.E. is only about 14.

They will also pay $0.224 per share dividend on 04/30/06 to shareholders of record as of 04/21/06 ex-dividend date is 04/19/06.

O/S is only 6.7 Million.

[jjkool_01]

re:HORC short 19.50, got the miss and downward guidance yet the stock moves up big. That stinks. Seen this happen before. Shorting more and hope to cover all for a wash.

[jjkool_01]

HORC short 19.50, earnings out tomorrow after close, guidance will get adjusted downwards IMO. I will likely be a buyer on the drop after earnings
from feb 1 ....
Horizon anticipates that its second quarter results will be significantly impacted by operating costs associated with its recent hospital acquisitions relating to items such as implementing new programs and program changes at various facilities, changes at various facilities, employee severance payments and establishing management infrastructure systems. Horizon further advised that it was not changing its current guidance of $1.08 to $1.12 per share for fiscal 2006 at this time.

[jjkool_01]

QLTY one quarter later and lookie here:
Quality Distribution, Inc. Reports Record Revenues and Earnings for the Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2005
Monday March 13, 6:12 pm ET


TAMPA, Fla., March 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Quality Distribution, Inc. (Nasdaq: QLTY - News; the "Company") today reported record revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2005 of $175.3 million, a 13.1% increase over fourth quarter revenues of $155.0 million last year. This represents the twelfth consecutive quarterly year-over-year increase in revenues. Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2005 increased 9.0% to $678.1 million from $622.0 million last year. Transportation revenues increased 8.3% from the prior-year quarter and by 4.9% from the prior year end, primarily due to rate increases.
ADVERTISEMENT


(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041104/FLTH034LOGO )

Net income for the quarter was $6.2 million, as compared with a net loss of ($6.4) million in the fourth quarter of last year. Earnings per fully diluted share were $0.32 in the fourth quarter of 2005, compared with a net loss per fully diluted share of ($0.35) for the same period last year. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2005 included a pre-tax benefit of $0.5 million related to a change in actuarial assumptions in one of our pension plans.

Net income for the year was $11.9 million or $0.62 per fully diluted share, as compared with a net loss of ($10.7) million, or ($0.57) per fully diluted share for the same period last year.

Commenting on the results and outlook, Chief Executive Officer Jerry Detter said, "We are pleased that many of the process improvements we began to implement in 2005 have helped us obtain a profitable quarter, and are optimistic that we have built a solid foundation for our future. We are especially proud of the improvements in driver counts we achieved in the fourth quarter of 2005 and first two months of this year. As we enter 2006, even though we face an increasing interest rate environment and have experienced somewhat softer seasonal demand than anticipated, we continue to view the year positively and remain confident with our previously stated operating objectives for 2006 revenue, earnings and debt reduction."

Chief Financial Officer Timothy Page stated, "We are pleased to announce under SOX 404, that we have maintained effective internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2005 and such assessment has been affirmed by our outside auditors, PwC. We also acquired the assets of a competitor in January 2006 for approximately $3.5 million, before contingent payments. This small strategic acquisition is already contributing positively to our business and we expect it to generate approximately $10 million in revenue in 2006 and further strengthen our business with one of our major customers."

As previously announced, the Company will host a conference call for investors to discuss these results on Tuesday, March 14, 2006 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time. The dial-in number is 800-500-0311 toll free; the passcode is 5254726. A replay of the call will be available until April 14, 2006, by dialing 888-203-1112; passcode 5254726. Copies of this earnings release and other financial information about the Company may be accessed on the "QDI Main/News and Publications" and "Investors" sections of the Company's website at http://www.qualitydistribution.com .

[jjkool_01]

so what is your take?

[johnniebgoode2002]

Sina reports tonite 02/22
Ntes on 2/23

[jjkool_01]

Thanks for your feedback.

[bbgold]

XWG Positive A/H
You want to see it recover support above 8 to make another run at 10. If it moves above 8 might want to put a tight stop on it so as not to hold through a gap pullback to 7. Best scenario any gap up holds support and sets up an island bottom here. Watch for recovered support at 8 then major resistance 10,11,12.
Good Trading!

[jjkool_01]

XWG; a little gambling money on this one long. 7.05 Hopeful of guidance for next year that ignites this one based on strength of agreements recently signed with several strong customers. Also thinking guidance given last Q was conservative given how mgmt knew the stock would sell off on the announcement of loss of large customer and impact of paying taxes would be. Now hopefully they can beat that.
Too much 'hopeful' to risk more than the small amount

[jjkool_01]

ABAX #4 on this IBD list:
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/high0220_06.html

[Growth And Value]

Some strong earnings growth stocks are:
symbol QOQ Sales Growth PEG Ratio
LGBT 87% 0.58
SMSI 92% 0.75
CKCM 131% 0.51
LGTY 94% 0.79
PRFT 49% 0.66
MEK 33% 0.63
NOIZ 106% 0.37

[jjkool_01]

thanks. I sold out remaining position. I still like them but I do not see it doing much in the short term and will look to come back in at a later time, sub $9.
Did you see the dump competitor DATA took?

[bbgold]

PFWD insiders taking $10
Keep an eye on the $10 level as resistance and the insiders seem to like it also for taking some profits ahead of earnings. Remember the low $ levels 1, 2, 5, 10 so you want to see $10 recovered as support or it could continue as resistance. Remember to watch for the Exercise of Stock Options as that usually preceeds a Sale. Hope it recovers for you but would be watching for recovered support at 9 or it could also become resistance.
Good Trading!

02/03/2006 PAUL A BLEICHER
Chairman of the Board 10,000 PFWD Open Market Sale
proceeds of $94,300.00

02/02/2006 MARTIN ANDREW YOUNG
Officer 15,000 PFWD Open Market Sale
proceeds of $150,000.00

02/01/2006 MARTIN ANDREW YOUNG
Officer 8,333 PFWD Exercise of Stock Options
at cost of $30,666.59

01/18/2006 MARTIN ANDREW YOUNG
Divisional Officer 15,960 PFWD Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $144,438.00

01/18/2006 MARTIN ANDREW YOUNG
Officer 15,960 PFWD Open Market Sale
proceeds of $141,884.39

01/15/2006 JEFFREY C WOO
Shareholder 2,500 PFWD Proposed Sale (Form 144)


01/09/2006 PAUL A BLEICHER
Chairman of the Board 10,000 PFWD Open Market Sale
proceeds of $98,250.00

01/06/2006 PAUL A BLEICHER
Chairman of the Board 10,000 PFWD Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $100,300.00

01/05/2006 ROBERT MONTGOMERY
Auto Generated 6,249 PFWD Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds of $62,427.51

01/03/2006 STEVEN J ROSENBERG
Divisional Officer 15,000 PFWD Proposed Sale (Form 144)
estimated proceeds

[bbgold]

Congrats on CADA
Would set a stop at 22 or 20 depending on risk tolerance and be watching for a breakout of the 52W high resistance at 23.50, would think 24 the next major resistance at 100% from the 52W low support level. Be Safe and remember to lock in some profits as it could pullback to major support at 18, might want to lock in 1/2 stop at 22 or take 3/4 profits at 24 then just keep trailing up your stops until only 1/4 position is left with a loose stop. It has had a stellar year and you want to make sure you don't give it all back.
Good Trading Kool!

[jjkool_01]

CADA: Will be looking forward to Tuesday after close.
Earnings are soon. No analyst coverage. Low volume, tightly held, strong insider ownership and a believing 10+% owner, 2.9M float. Company has gone through some very positive changes with a less dependance on hardware sales and more revenue from very high margin X-charge payment processing services. X-charge revenues are just now becomming over 50% of thier revenues. This revenue grew for the last 12 months at 78%. Zero debt, strong cash flow, $21M in cash, and now they are paying dividends based on earnings each quarter. Cash cow.

[jjkool_01]

PFWD, will hold core through earnings tonight. Prepared to add on any selloff. I like the company, the sector, the growth, the board, the management, the balance sheet but this stock always acts like a low float with it's swings. Could easily pass $11 again as it did mid December.

[screenshot]

anyone setting up a straddle/strangle on QLGC,PRU,MET,AET? Earnings coming up....

[johnniebgoode2002]

ERTS earnings tonite

50 puts and 55 calls?

[johnniebgoode2002]

Short Goog.

That was the play. I think going forward just buy puts.

[DCschmoeka]

YEs long/short plays will be plenty, but no nice starddles is what i meant.

[jjkool_01]

Quite a lot of earnings coming out this week. Ought to be some plays there somewhere.
ABAX has been a monster. Sold 1/2 today.
CADA is in 2 weeks. Low float, hugely profitable with tremendous growth in high margin product line x-charge. Paying dividends on EPS now, zero debt, lots-o-cash.
SILC posted great earnings today

[DCschmoeka]

Quickly reviewed this weeks earnings reports, nothing that i would like to straddle. Premiums are pricing in huge moves already, need to wait to get closer to exp to play again. Maybe one exception:

MSTR tomorrow ( ithink after the close but do your own DD), currently pricing in a 10-12 pt move for the straddle, has done that and more at lower pps levels in the past. So it would be a gamble to get a 20pt+ move on this very high level. A few weeks till exp to play the continuation. A bet that the percentage move will be as big as in the 50´s ....

[DCschmoeka]

GOOG premiums pricing in 25 pts, for a straddle need a 50pt move just to breakeven.

[jjkool_01]

ABAX, record sales. Looks like a miss on average estimates for earnings but I was not disappointed. Congrats from analysts. tax rate was up. Miltary revs declined $542K which is always lumpy and down about $1m from timing of royalty payments.
This was a very nice quarter IMO. Only thing I am disappointed in was that I sold 1/3 today to reduce my risk because of the high volume sell down yesterday. I suspect quite a lot of yesterday was also shorts sales. Covering should be nice to watch.
Going forward looks very positive with new products, additional sales reps, full agreement with PSS worldwide.
:)

[johnniebgoode2002]

There are so many earnings reports coming out that my head hurts. Can't keep track of them all.

[johnniebgoode2002]

AFFX earnings straddle or strangle

Thoughts?

[jjkool_01]

ABAX, reduced holdings by 1/3 because of yesterday but will carry the rest through earnings. Still love the future here especially with PSSI agreement but fruit from that agreement has not had time to show up in this reporting period. I have expectations of them meeting expectations and am hopeful they can give improved guidance based on early returns from PSSI.

[jjkool_01]

ABAX off 9%, earnings Thursday. Reckon someone has insight into earnings numbers? Vol pretty strong, someone was definately exiting.

[jjkool_01]

Good luck with it Johnnie. I would be unsure how to play that one. Hope it is quite profitable for you.

[johnniebgoode2002]

Gm earnings Thursday.

93 million short .

22.5 puts

[jjkool_01]

Thanks Bob.
I really am not a chartist so I appreciated your comments. Your eyes are much better than mine on charts and I apprreciated your words of caution. I was curious what the charts would indicate and now I know.
I just dont think this stock plays by chart rules too much.
Best trading wishes your way and thanks again.

[bbgold]

Hi LG

Still no indication of Jenna coming back. The chat room has still been open and is still used by some of the prior subscribers. This board and the chat are still open for anyone wishing to offer questions/insights into any upcoming earnings speculation. I believe Jenna has become comfortable in her hiatus and likes not having the pressure of the subscription service or keeping up with posting. So for now it is just the few you see posting here and those in the chat room that continue to look for earnings possibilities. The Marketgems website is also still up and filled with a lot of useful information. If you have anything you would like to discuss then feel free to post it.
Good Trading LG!
Sincerely, Bob

[bbgold]

Hi Ken, CA:CEP (TSX) charting

The company has seen a big pullback through 05 after having a stellar year in 04. The pullback from 30 to 15 could be seen as a common 50% pullback and so far it has shown good support at 15 bringing some buyers back in. The resistance here at 19/20 could become a problem though and the recent move could just be a bounce from the support. Make sure to have good stops in place and if it again drops below 15 I would put it on Ignore and take a look again at 12.50 or 10 for support. Watch for resistance levels and if 20 can be recovered as Support then it would have a greater potential to retest 25. For now it is in a resistance area and I would not be surprised to see it pullback to retest 15 for support again. The last two spike highs that have looked like a recovery have sold from resistance so I would not be surprised to see it happen again here. You can draw a line from the last two spike highs to here and see that it is still in a downward trend and Caution should be used.
Good Trading Ken!
Sincerely, Bob

[LG]

You folks still hanging out here expect Jenna to return?

LG

[jjkool_01]

Ceramic Protection Corp. guidance and a few thoughts, worth the read.

Financial Guidance for 2006

The Corporation currently estimates that its 2006 revenues will be CAD $75 million to $85 million with gross margins of $31 million to $34 million. It is estimated that 2006 net income after tax will be in the range of $13 million to $15 million and 2006 EBITDA will be in the range of $24 million to $26 million. This would generate an estimated fully diluted EPS range of $1.32 to $1.52. These estimates assume a CAD/USD exchange rate of USD $0.87 to one CAD.
Current backlog presently stands at CAD $72 million.
-----------------
Chartists; chart out CEP.to and I think you will likely find so many positive indicators. Now add to that the fundamentals found in a well run growing company. If you applied a similar valuation as that of CRDN, which is about the closest company you can find to match CEP, you will also find this is extremely undervalued even after the recent moves. I could do another whole write up on them but I do not need the convincing on this one so I'll not go to the trouble again. I know the company well enough and have been a long term holder in this one. If you do not have enough knowledge about this company, I have posted plenty of thourough DD in my posts both at ihub and at thelion in the 'DD Den of Picks' forum to make further research and verifications much easier.
This stock can be traded in and out of but is not liquid enough for huge block in/out moves. I expect some short term results that can return 40% or more within 6 months or less, perhaps even within a few weeks since the tradeable float is low. I expect some longer term sustained price support that would be a in line with 75-100% share price appreciation. However, my biggest concern is that CRDN takes the proceeds of their recent offering and uses it to acquire CEP. In either case, I think this stock will do extremely well this year and it has just begun.

The purpose of this post is share my thoughts that the timing for this move up is now and that it is only the beginning. The last few weeks have substantiated that in my mind and I'll be willing to say that the charts will bear this out but I'm not a chartist.
Best wishes
Ken

[bbgold]

Jan Option Expiration is Today

Just in case anyone played some Jan options on the earnings plays remember that today is expiration day and they are only good until the market close. February contracts still have a month to go so no worries there. Anyone tempted to buy the cheap Jan Put contracts on the spike highs remember to look for your profits before the eod. QQQQs have tripped hard and potential support levels are 41.50 and 41, INDU 10700 was the targeted support here. Anticipating a potential lod at eod today but always Safe to lock in some profits. Always remember to keep trades Safe and have Stops or Hedges in place.

Have a Wonderful Weekend Everyone!

[bbgold]

Very Nice!

Good to see they are all purchases and not just Options, where the Options are converted to shares before they can sell em. Nice to see outright purchases. Good Luck with it and don't forget to raise your stops :^)


Date Name Shares Stock Transaction
12/09/2005 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 3,900 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $68,241.00

09/16/2005 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 9,616 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $141,242.20

09/16/2005 KEN L TEMPLETON
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 5,000 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $73,800.00

08/08/2005 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 5,412 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $82,202.36

08/05/2005 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 1,640 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $23,730.79

04/06/2005 KEN L TEMPLETON
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 39,000 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $489,321.75

02/24/2005 WALTER W STRAUB
Director 7,500 CADA Open Market Sale
proceeds of $120,750.00

08/05/2004 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 1,086 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $15,866.45

07/29/2004 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 800 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $11,260.00

07/28/2004 GEOFFREY D KNAPP
Chief Executive Officer 2,500 CADA Open Market Purchase
Cost $34,975.00

[jjkool_01]

CADA: very nice insider buys at 52wk high. Been a favorite of mine for some time. Nice to see I am in good company, I also added first thing 1-17.
Will likely add another bite tomorrow.
Earnings are soon. No analyst coverage. Low volume, tightly held, strong insider ownership and a believing 10+% owner. Company has gone through some very positive changes with a less dependance on hardware sales and more revenue from very high margin X-charge payment processing services. X-charge revenues are just now becomming over 50% of thier revenues. This revenue grew for the last 12 months at 78%. Zero debt, strong cash flow, $21M in cash, and now they are paying dividends based on earnings each quarter.

My hope is this Q numbers will open some eyes.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/819334/000109000206000012/xslF345X02/primary_doc.xml

[bbgold]

Morning DC

YHOO and INTC reacting much as I expect the others will also. FWIW I had not seen how these two reported before looking at the charts so you can see why a potential runnup into the reports looks similar with the other stocks. Once the stocks runnup and then falter ahead of the reports it is often a sign of weakness anticipated on the reports. I Love it when you put up your plays with the charts all in one post as then it can be easier to see the similarities in the patterns. Just remember that the Earnings can always be a surprise and not always to the direction anticipated. Straddles/Strangles the Safest trades most of the time but keep watching the charts for indications of direction after the reports.

Keep Rocking DC! :^)

[DCschmoeka]

Thanks for the feedback BB. YHOO and INTC with extreme moves for both stocks, I have a feel that volatility is coming back for this Jan-Feb earnings session. Too bad we have the real beauties next week with very high Feb premiums, but should still have a couple plays then and especially in the weeks to come!