Larry's Market Comments at Critical Points

[TREND1]

The 4x21 30 minute charts at the close:
(1)Indexes with 30 minute 4x21 sells:
ONEQ
IJR
IWM
SPY
DIA
QQQ
VTI
(2)Indexes with 30 minute 4x21 BUYS:
SMH
(3)SMH stocks with 30 minute SELLS:
ADI
AMD
ATML
INTC
LLTC
LSI
MU
NVLS

Translation:
This could be start of short term down trend,
but we will have to wait until Monday.

[TREND1]

SMH Holder stocks only
http://www.geocities.com/smhlt2004/

[TREND1]

Here is SMH Weekly with 13 week High Low Lines.
(1)Note that since March 2003 SMH has been touching
13 week high Line. This is bullish. IMHO.

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[alanfl]

Larry
can you add the 13 week bars on to your last chart? Thanks!

[TREND1]

Short term top is near.IMHO.

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

All Indexes I follow made 52 week highs today
DIA
IJR
IWM
ONEQ
SPY
QQQ
SMH
VTI

[TREND1]

Minute by minute gains since 1/5/04 6:30AM PT
http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

% Gains from 12/17/03 to 1/7/04
(1)Sorted from highest to Lowest
(2)30% to 6%

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

Don't know yet.
Just started keeping data.
What do you think the implications are ?
Or what would you like to learn from the data?

[nancy2]

so what is the implication ?

[TREND1]

Well all SMH stocks are above their following averages:
21 EMA
21 SMA
10 EMA
10 SMA

[TREND1]

Looks like all 20 SMH stocks will be above 21 SMA,
unless there is a big sell off during this last hour.

Translation:
If you are not already long, it is too late to buy now.IMHO.

[TREND1]

pantmaker
Take what you want and enjoy(g)
Also ask questions and or make comments.
Or post new ideas.

[TREND1]

Daily chart of Pivot Sells
(1)Green Line = 20 day Low Line
(2)Red Line = % above 20 day Low Line where
Pivot Sells may happen.
(3)All are set at +20%, except SMH which has been back tested
and set to +17%.
(4) You recall a Pivot Buy for SMH could happen at -10% below
the 20 High Line.

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

At 9:30 AM PT NVLS gave 4x21 sell
http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

All is well in SMH land.
No 4x21 sells
Now they are moving up again.

[LisaAu]

Larry wrote:

(1)Over bought means DO NOT BUY ANY LONGS.IMHO.
(2)STAY with current LONGS, but look for sell signals.IMHO
(3)DO NOT SHORT on a BULL MARKET.IMHO

Yes, very good points. It's best to enter or exit at or near signal change time.

In some cases one can short if the signal is solid and one is reluctant to hold overnight, IMO.

[TREND1]

At 7:33 AM PT
16 out of 20 SMH now have white candles on 30 minute chart.
No 4x21 sells yet.

Translation:
Maybe a rally has started ?

[TREND1]

These SMH stocks are still rising like this correction is not happening:
MU
MXIM

[TREND1]

It is now 40 minutes into trading.
10 minutes after posting chart.
And now 9 stocks are below their 21 EMA
No 4x21 sells yet.

[TREND1]

Very interesting.
AMKR has reversed to the down side since I posted the chart.
Could this be a way to catch a good "short" in the future?

[TREND1]

All 20 SMH Stocks after 1/2 hour of trading.
http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[pantmaker]

Thanks Larry. Interesting stuff.

Pants

[TREND1]

pant
They are Les's numbers, except SMH.
SMH is calculated by me.

[TREND1]

Lisa You wrote
"The problem with overbought signals is that the market can become "more overbought."

And then when a person's had enough of that it can become "even more overbought."

The market can be overbought for weeks."


Comments:
(1)Over bought means DO NOT BUY ANY LONGS.IMHO.
(2)STAY with current LONGS, but look for sell signals.IMHO
(3)DO NOT SHORT on a BULL MARKET.IMHO

[LisaAu]

Yes, I agree.

One of my operating principles is that the market is very difficult, if not impossible to predict, consistently day after day. But one can learn to read the market in the present state and respond appropriately, and with the proper tools do that reasonably well, with a respectable level of success.

States change and processes end. And overbought conditions give way to new states and processes. Exactly when that will occur is difficult to determine, but one can learn to recognize or identify it when one sees it.

[royg1927]

Yes, of course. However, the more and longer overbought, the poorer the risk-reward becomes. Presently, with the DOW having progresed upward virtually without dip since November 21, that index looks rather unattractive. The SPX is similar, but with a slight pause during that period.

On the other hand, the COMP and (especially) the SOX/SMH indices do not show such seemingly dangerous lengthy runs, although the current SMH run of 12 sessions since December 16 is about on a par with previous advances, and expecially considering that we are looking at a lower low and lower high already printed in December.

[LisaAu]

The problem with overbought signals is that the market can become "more overbought."

And then when a person's had enough of that it can become "even more overbought."

The market can be overbought for weeks.

[pantmaker]

Larry are you talking 21 period RSI here? edit...sorry I just figured it out...you are using Les' chart for readings...take care

thanks

pants

[TREND1]

Market is over bought (80-90)
Les's 21 SMA #
ALL=83
SPY=88
QQQ=91
SOX=96
SMH=100

[TREND1]

Also, Les has said tops happen when 21d is in the 80-90 range.
Bottoms happen when 21d is in 20-30 range.

Translation:
Since SOX =81 (Almost same as SMH), it is high RISK to go long
and Low RISK to go short. But since it is a BULL market, shorting is also RISKY.

So I'll wait until Les's numbers get at least below 40 before
looking a SMH 30 minute chart for (1)Trend break and (2) 4x21
cross over. Then I'll go LONG.

[gottfried]

Lisa, Les' numbers are '% stocks above ma'. His latest... http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19649254

Gottfried

[LisaAu]

Larry,

What do the numbers that Les supplies mean, signify or indicate?

[TREND1]

TA Update for 1/2/04
SMH 30 minute chart
(1)Les's # SOX=81 (Tops range 80-90)
(2)4x21 sell signal
(3)break of trend to down side

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

New 52 week highs today, so far
ONEQ
DIA
SPY
QQQ
VTI
and XLNX

[TREND1]

SMH Weekly
(1)Earnings come out every 13 weeks
(2)Draw 13 week horizontal lines from Highs and Lows
(3)Will SMH make new high in next 5 weeks ?

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

SMH 30 Minute charts EXPLAINED:
(1)4ma crossing 21 ma sells
(2)20 day high line
(3)Lisa's ITerm sells
(4)Lisa's ITerm Buys
(5)Les's numbers
(Tops range = 80-90)
(Bottoms range = 20-30)
(6)-10% below 20 day line
(Each stock has it's own -% characteristic)
(7)% difference between High and Low Lines
(Each stock has it's own -% characteristic)

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

Sorry.
I do not follow that stock.

[Fullmoon]

Larry, OT OT OT

what is your take on CORV?

tia,
kevin

[TREND1]

SMH ITerm sells are now in Yellow Line
year=2003
month=12
day=31
hour=7AM PAC
minute=30

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

SMH 30 minute chart using combination:
(1)Trend Lines
(2)4x21 MA Buy-Sells

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

TA Update for 12/30/03
Les's numbers for 21 DMA's are in the topping area(80-90):

 
 All=82 
 SPY=89 
 QQQ=80 
 SOX=74 
 

[TREND1]

SMH(week,day,30m,5m) (second chart on web site)
(1)SMH 5m on sell
(2)Will SMH 30m go to sell?
(3)Look how strong SMH weekly remains.
http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

30 minute TA UPDATE of 21 SMH stocks.
(1)All 21 stocks have voice monitor when signal
changes from BUY to SELL or (Sell to BUY)
(2)ALTR is on sell (ADI has error= daily, not 30 minute)

http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

TA Update for 12/29/03
(1)Les's 21day numbers indicate top is near.
Les uses 80-90 range as top.
Today's numbers are as follows:

 
 all = 80 
 SPY = 90 
 QQQ = 82 
 SOX = 68 
 

.
(2)All indexes(except SMH) are touching the 20 day high line,
indicating a "top is near"
(3)Tops are not important to my trading because I do not short,
but it is high risk to buy now.

[blue13326]

what's most important is how the market reacts to earnings, when institutions get to look behind the curtain.

[TREND1]

you wrote
I look for gaps above 52wk highs on earnings

Comment:
Interesting.
In general new highs beget new highs.
Until it doesn't any more.

[blue13326]

I look for gaps above 52wk highs on earnings, this got me trading RSTI this Q and GPRO 5 Qs back. RSTI has had the added benefit of being extremely volatile being accumulated around the new high, with many trading opportunities until the fairly predictable breakout.

[TREND1]

Weely,Daily,30 minute charts of SMH
with 4x21 EMA buys and sells
http://www.geocities.com/larrydudash2004/index.html

[TREND1]

Percent difference between the 20 week high line
and the 20 week low line for the SMH Holder stocks:

 
 N	SYM	20WHL% 
 1	KLAC	21 
 2	LLTC	21 
 3	MU	26 
 4	NVLS	27 
 5	ADI	30 
 6	AMAT	30 
 7	INTC	31 
 8	LSI	31 
 9	MXIM	31 
 10	SMH	31 
 11	ALTR	32 
 12	AMKR	35 
 13	VTSS	35 
 14	XLNX	36 
 15	TER	42 
 16	TXN	43 
 17	SNDK	44 
 18	BRCM	45 
 19	NSM	51 
 20	ATML	60 
 21	AMD	61