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But I will point out that as gold does reach upward with slow steps, GDX seems to have a negative pattern. Example: Another words 10 up then 5 down in gold produces 3 up and 4 down in GDX. Another words it’s miners dropping or GDX fund manager incompetence. It’s the latter, I do not see the same drop in the individual miners. CAs closed for now.
Most of the unlove and hate come from crypto scammers who pretend or portray their pyrite for real gold. Gold is money, crypto is pyramid scams with occasional block chain values mixed in. Once they realize this, and they will when the time is right, gold and silver will pop 20x. All roads lead to gold.
Nice good day today
"gold stocks are cheap and hated" This article says it all. I have been running my own money in the stock market since the year 1989...(I was first in the market october 14, 1989, precisely 5 days before the infamous black monday. I owned one stock, 5 grand worth, it was called Apple. I sold, like a noobie....I was around 27 as I recall.
I have made a ton of money in the market since then, and all based on a single rule: buy when something is obviously of great value (as uranium was a year ago), but is absolutely hated.
and with the stock market came the beautiful and funny and frolicking girlfriends, so many. I remember one, a strawberry blonde, Susan, *(not Suzanne, another pure blonde another model, this one a brick sheathouse...) I was with the friday before that Black Monday, a model, as so many had modeling portfolios these curvey women would show you half drunk about 1 a.m....I was curious why the Nazdaq and my first stock ever was getting crushed that friday afternoon..........but that is another story...
as I was a young trial lawyer, had my own trial practice, the clients so wonderful and downtrodden and in danger, some of which they caused to themselves....anyway
It is okay to be a little early, in order to make 400 to 500 percent gain and change your entire life. Godl is emerging for what will be seen in hindsight as a 13 year bear market. The gold stocks will get with the program over time, and then far outshine.
https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-are-cheap-and-hated/
remember guys, when bull markets are given birth, they are boring. that is not the way it works....almost tiny steps, despite news that should provide their companion equities large leaps, but they only get tiny advances at first. 4 steps forward, 3 back, so maddening.....this is the way it was with the birth of the recent bull market in uranium, which I followed closely but missed completely...despite the fundamentals......o well. as the bull market progresses, it far far surpasses even its most ardent believer's expectations, and during the final 20 percent of the market, which will be years into the future for gold, ...it goes absolutely ballistic. The last time gold started a bull market in truth was around 2001, i remember it well. There was what was called the 3 dollar rule, well known at the time. Gold could never advance more than 3 dollars in a single day....and then finally after about a year into the bull market, gold started putting in 4 dollar up days, then 5 (with retreat days for sure), and so on...as gold climbed from 265 bucks to 1000...and then the great financial crisis occurred, gold in a panic 8 month down move bottomed at 680,...and then it began its climb higher topping out in the top week at 1925 or so............that topping occurred in 2011, and believe it or not, we have been in a bear market ever since...now ready to push to serious highs...but it will and is beginning slowly. and the gold miners are absolutely hated, despised...You couldn't get a better buy since bitcoin came into existence, then buying the GDX right now. ...imho....miners are the best buy easily in 23 years and possibly since the mid 1970s.....
I think the perfect storm is coming together for Gold finally. We shall see.
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 27, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 23, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 169.5k, down 10.4k.
Gold bugs just cannot get it going. Several attempts this week to recapture the 50-day fell short. Gold, which fell 0.6 percent this week to $2,017/ounce, remains between the average ($2,031) and the 200-day ($1,978).
Non-commercials, in the meantime, reduced net longs in gold futures to a 10-week low. They held 207,718 contracts in the week to December 26th. This week, holdings stood at 169,474, which remains sizable. These traders began to reduce their long exposure after the metal failed to reclaim $2,080s.
Gold rose as high as $2,152 on December 4th but reversed to close at $2,042; resistance at $2,080s held. This has proven to be an important price point. In August 2020, the yellow metal posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. The reversal occurred again in March 2022 when it printed $2,079 and in May last year when $2,085 was tagged, followed by rejection late last month and early this month.
If it is any consolation to the bulls, $2,000 is attracting bids, including this week.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
NY Gold Futures »» Turning BACK DOWN Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 27, 2024
The NY Gold Futures closing today at 20173 is immediately trading down about 2.63% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 2 months going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 20208.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
bought the open this a.m heavy...i agree with you..
Yea im in miners for a trade through march for seasonal strength since they are already beaten up
gold still getting manipulated, when oil goes up or dollar goes down or market goes up, usually gold does too. Manipulation.
the last thing buggin me: there are several guys who I respect as regards the miners and they are all devilishly bearish right now on the sector, due purely to historical analogies. They love gold but are market timers......1. Stephen Jon Kaplin, 2. Jordan roy bryne, and 3. Chris Vermeulin........and I usually find myself in agreement with them, or at least thoughtfully listening to them. All 3 are strongly now of the opinion that gold will collapse essentially with the equity markets. Gold and the minors, always no exceptions, get crushed with the general equity markets when there is a recession. Which is surely coming ...
here is vermeulin,..
these 3 are smart and the odds favor they are probably correct. I agree with them...
What is the value of information if one is dogmatic?
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2024-01-11/expect-volatile-market-correction-in-2024-vermeulen
another negative. The POG was much lower before the fed a couple months ago?, said they would be proactive and raise raise consistently in the coming new year....gold was around 1980 or thereabouts. ....then on that PR gold went up around 27 bucks, and the miners shot up dramatically. .....Most recedntly the fed ahs walked that announcement back on account of clamied strength in the economuy..........so we see here the fed doing what it does best, price fixing with its nonsense PRs to keep the ponzi confidence game going, and gold at least contained.......this zig zagged higher move, with many zags will continue.....
Most say around a 50 50- chance of a recession this year, but they will continue to rig the numbers.......... to keep the inflated asset poinzi in their direction. but can they?
what bothers me, is that the stocks are so cheap. Typically they lead by leaping and jumping higher than the POG, but now, they must be expecting a gold dump....what is the phrase when you give human emotions to inanimate things? The gold stocks will have the last laugh, the question is are they foreseeing this fake tech/general market hype bs, or are they foreseeing perhaps the impossibility of recession avoidance, or both................punt.
dumped everything the past 2 hours.....o well. good luck to you. I am a reverse barometer it seems.
silver down big, gold sliding with no push.; the longer spot sits around 2024, the greater the odds of a breakdown. the fed language is harsh for gold owners, the most recent lies..............who knows.
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 20, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 16, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 179.9k, down 8.7k.
Non-commercials are beginning to cut down their net longs in gold futures. They held 207,718 contracts in the week to December 26th. This week, holdings stood at 179,893, which remains sizable.
Earlier, gold rose as high as $2,152 on December 4th but only to close at $2,042; the intraday reversal meant resistance at $2,080s held firm. This has proven to be an important price point. In August 2020, the metal posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. The reversal occurred again in March 2022 when it printed $2,079 and in May last year when $2,085 was tagged, followed by rejection late last month and early this month.
This week, the metal shed 1.1 percent to $2,029. The weekly has room to continue lower, although gold bugs can take advantage of the daily oversold conditions in the near term.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Yea i bought miners last week. Not at the bottom but im holding now. End game near
Gdxj loks cheap on p/s p/e p/b and on the chart. Oil down too. Holding
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 20, 2024
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 20331 and support forming below at 20276. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
gld daily chart looks promising. a month ago the 50 dma cross up over the 200, and today we had a very strong day where the POG finishes with a nice candle......perhaps today was the end.
the gold stocks today printing a pretty decent candle, and gold up nicely. Not out of the danger zone to put it mildly but if gold is up big on monday we may well get an island gap up and go, leaving this little couple of final trend down days as an island. who knows.
I agree. But when I say market timing, I’m talking fundamentals + Economics for that time. Debt, inflation, interest rates, sector resilience or contrarian, market and sector cycles that line up with economic cycles such as robust and boom periods. I see this period as a blend of 1987, 1999, 2007. What always remains constant is commercial vs retail patterns in behavior. But like say, it’s actually complicated.
some of my rules learned in the school of hard knocks: be a fast seller if your idea is not turning out, ....load up when something is on sale...(like now where the miners argubably are the cheapest in two generations, and make sure you are probably right on your macro......the most important thing is to be a fast seller, recognize mistakes. I make well over 100 million dollars in trades per year, for me they are not trades, they are bad ideas where i am wrong, ...and like all highly successful traders (so they say)_I make 90 percent of my money on less then 10 percent of my bets........I am so loaded for bear right now in the same stuff you are...............but I will sell much too quickly sometimes..........the winners I have let go in the past 5 years.........don't even want to think about it.
I do this now professionally for me myself and I, and was in the markets and by almost luck made a killing in the net/tech mania of the late 90s, which you reference.....been in the markets running my own money as a hobby since the mid 90s, and as an occupation for the past 10 years.....it is a little scary, before as a lawyer I could manage to replace my inexperience....but now, you gotta know what you are doing. I have seen 2 studies which say that if you want to make a living (not make a killing), successful people like me are either 1 in 32 or 1 in 48. I prefer fundamentals, which are tricky, taking a macro view down, and use technicals from time to time, like now, where my bet is that we will never again see the POG below 2000..........and going forward that the FED must cut and probably dramatically over the next 2 years starting probably in Q1. Goldman says 5 quarter point cuts this year alone.
I see the manipulation on the ticker, i know all kinds of people read these boards so i wont ever tell anyone how i see and know how they manipulate it. Im also starting to see it in BTC, I get a good chuckle when it happens exactly like i read it, because it reminds me of someone sitting there reading the matrix, one can see it, and others dont have a clue what they are looking at. its very similar when i watch tickers. I did it in the 90s with several stocks but got sidetracked with life as a single parent they later with demanding careers. Im gonna do it full time at some point, this year may be a good one to start this process again. I remember one guy would call me into his office and say, hey what to you think of this stock, i would do my thing, tell him, and it would happen. He turned to me and said how do you do that, i gave him a half answer cause it all has to do with market timing, not stock timing, almost everyone lucks out and buys bottom and sells top, but almost no one does it via TA, just blind luck, and u have to listen to the schmuck for years brag, just like what is going on today.
Michelle's guest really knows what he is talking about. When this interview first aired, the word "farce" was in the headlines.....financial farce.
this morning has been a terrific bit of manipulation. (rarely do I use that word in public markets). They ran it up on very light volume premarket with the futures, and just dumped it from the first 5 minutes.....to trap retail longs. Who may end up having the last laugh. My core thesis is the same as yours, regardless of the fake nonsense wall street and DC is spitting out, ..the bottom line is that equities are wildly over priced and main is increasingly going down the toilet with ever worse data......
and this will all come home to roost soon, very soon.
It would not surprise me that this morning was the bottom for the miners and for POG.......unless our core thesis is wrong, which it is not....the bus is way over the cliff and it is accelerating..
2055 starts the show.
it will soon all blow up, i am fully loaded with gold, silver, mines and ETFs. there is a long term cup and handle, where wave 3 epicenter will sky rocket the price of metals, which will be timed with liquidity drying up/new QE, or just general bubble poppings. there is no soft landing possible, that is just a made up term to bring in more investors into the markets so the Pros can move stuff around.
at this point, based on yesterday's economic report, the wall street gang is pretending all is well, the world is fine, america's economy is perfect, the debt does not matter....nothing matters, the consumer is holding up strong and will spend his way out of danger.......the general equities soar as it is more extend and pretend. all is well the fed is in control of the world.
I agree. I see it still coasting around 2010 today. Spot price that is. Lots of repositioning. Have not had time to look at futures expirations but this may be blast off groundwork.
I don’t really care about futures price other than contracts and backwardation. Spot is where everything takes place and manipulated.
bottom appears to be in this a.m...it has been a serious retracement.
today may well be the bottom in gold for a very long time. I am loaded to the gills with gdxj and gdx. Got lucky on this latest swoon in their retracements. The POG 2000 is being tested perhaps for many decades to come as we speak.
The miners are dirt cheap, both gdx and gdxj are superb buys, their companies the cheapest in 4 decades, provided this is a bull market. It has to be, that is my conclusion. 34 trillion in debt is just for openers, and europe is going down the toilet as well, and then there is Japan as well.....The financialzed economies will die, the greed was too much for them, and the new world will arise to take their place. America no doubt will go down fighting, starting wars, but every year or two it seems is a new global humiliations for the americans and their Oligarchs. ...........Gold is the best way to stay solvent, and it will enjoy a premium as an investment...
Spot could challenge 2000 today, it will s absolutely getting directed to go down there. And still is as it hits 2004.
Mining Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | January 17, 2024
• Top Movers
Sherritt Intl 3.33 %
Uranium Energy 2.96 %
Gem Diamonds 2.57 %
Ferrexpo 2.52 %
Altius Minerals 1.4 %
• Bottom Movers
Gld Rcs 12.12 %
Southgobi Rcs 10 %
Largo Rcs 10 %
Barrick Gold Corporation 9.52 %
First Majestic Svr 7.96 %
*Close from the last completed Daily
DiscoverGold
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 13, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 188.6k, down 19k.
Gold bugs defended the 50-day ($2,023) this week. This follows rejection late last month at $2,080s. The daily is now in oversold territory, raising the odds the bulls will regroup to launch another attack. This has proven to be an important price point.
In August 2020, the metal posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. The reversal occurred again in March 2022 when it printed $2,079 and in May last year when $2,085 was tagged.
More recently, on December 4th, no sooner did gold break out of $2,080s than it quickly met with a nasty reversal, rising as high as $2,152 but only to close at $2,042. After that, bulls have gone after that several more times, but to no avail. Chances are they will meet the same fate near term, should they regroup and hammer on that ceiling.
It is looking more and more likely gold ($2,052/ounce) wants to head lower on the weekly.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
My Best advice is find an investment that will thrive in the following environment, or worse, War.
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/year-of-the-dragon-silk-roads-brics-roads-sino-roads/
sorry i meant Saudi Arabia joins them. and yes, a Rusky scientist invented a blockchain for china's digital yuan, they will tie Gold into the basket of denominations that will pretty much replace or compete with BIS SDRs. Particularly the dollar. its dominance in weight is what China is focusing on. they will beat FedCoin at its own game because so far FedCoin has no plans to base itself on any real money, just the failing fiat dollar. this is the year of the dragon, china and russia have big big plans this fall. Even though Basil III gave commercial banks the ability to use 100% of the value of gold for its assets on the books, it aint really doing anything for the massive debt that is piling up daily around the world. the idiot Powel is moving right in step with Alan Greenspan in the 90s with single handedly causng the housing crisis by raising interest rate rise to styme the housing market to the point people were only paying interest on their balloon mortgages, i watched in amazement as he kept raising rates, no one could be that dumb, he destroyed it as planned. the same is happening now, Powell has to destroy something to reign is hyper inflation, any one of the bubbles that pop will start the process, and the dollar will collapse in synch with it. thus the economic reset to the rescue and WHO will they blame, most likely Biden Admin will be in the mix. they are too busy following orders in ruining America. China is preparing to save the world while gaining control of the world by next year. bank on it, yes in metals and miners, and no, not crypto miners. they will reset just like dot com, the current dot bong crypto craze is coming to an end, where it becomes lean and real. right now its a scam
Fixed number of units of currency for a 5 year period
Starting Aug 1, 2022
Weights determined in the 2022 review
Currency
43.38
0.57813
US dollar
Euro
29.31
0.37379
Chinese Renminbi
12.28
1.0993
Japanese Yen
7.59
13.452
Pound Sterling
7.44
0.080870
Something is definitely happening on BRICS front. We will have to wait and let it all play out.
Souses join BRICS. It will be too late before West does anything about what is happening. It’s the Biden regime that only knows destroy America, by the time a real President is in office and sweeps the Fed and treasury, and FHFA out, more of the same, dollar avoidance and eventual dominance over it.
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 30, 2023
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2023.
Gold: Currently net long 207.7k, up 6.4k.
Once again, gold bugs went after $2,080s and once again their effort failed to bear fruits.
Early this month, no sooner did gold break out of $2,080s than it quickly met with a nasty reversal. This level has a lot of memory attached to it. In August 2020, the metal posted a new all-time high of $2,089 and retreated. This occurred again in March last year when it printed $2,079 and in May this year when $2,085 was tagged.
On Wednesday and Thursday, gold touched $2,096 and $2,098 intraday, but only to finish the week at $2,072, forming a weekly shooting star. For December, a massive monthly spinning top formed.
Despite all these developments, gold remains in the periphery of the said level. Right here and now, the path of least resistance is down on the daily, with the 50-day at $2,014 and decent horizontal support at $2,000.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Liquidity crunch Friday, should send gold soaring next week, no matter what the Fed or Treasury does. if they were smart, they would ped the dollar to gold at 33k. that would provide rocket fuel for every market in the world
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 30, 2023
At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 20651 and overhead resistance forming above at 20805. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 9 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 4th at 20106. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 3 weeks, which has been a sharp move of 4.051% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 4th has exceeded the previous high of 20197 made back during the week of October 23rd. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 18235 made the week of October 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 20106. Additional support is to be found at 19672. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 3 weeks.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
Mining Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | December 29, 2023
• Top Movers
Petra Diamonds 29.7 %
Jiangxi Copper 4.35 %
Largo Rcs 3.63 %
Sherritt Intl 3.45 %
Perseus Min 3.23 %
• Bottom Movers
Gld Fields 10.72 %
Energy Fuels 7.06 %
Torex Gld 5.48 %
Coeur Mining, Inc. 5.14 %
New Gld 4.9 %
*Close from the last completed Daily
DiscoverGold
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 23, 2023
NY Gold Futures opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. This market is above all our indicators at this time reflecting it is moving higher over recent activity. At this time, the market closed today at 20691. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it may rally further on the MONTHLY level.
At the moment, this market has been rising for this month going into December reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 21523 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 19356. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 20572.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during October. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 20610.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 9 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 4th at 20106. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 5.705% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 21523 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 17610 and 22050. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 4th has exceeded the previous high of 20197 made back during the week of October 23rd. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 18235 made the week of October 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 20014. Additional support is to be found at 19356. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 20854. After a six month rally from the previous low of 19360, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for six months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in December, this market has held above last month's low of 19356 reaching 19879.
This market is trading beneath that high of May which was 20854 by 0.78%. Critical support still underlies this market at 18107 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high.
Gold Stocks’ Lost Year
By: Adam Hamilton | December 22, 2023
The gold miners’ stocks have suffered something of a lost year, with this small contrarian sector largely overlooked. Investor apathy remains high despite miners’ soaring earnings fueled by much-higher gold prices. But 2023’s unusually-subdued gold-stock price action was driven by several major anomalies that have run their courses. As markets normalize in 2024, gold miners have lots of mean-reversion rallying to do.
Christmas is a time of reflection, looking back on the challenges, blessings, and triumphs experienced over a long year. Like pretty much everyone, my family and I have had plenty of all three. 2023’s gold-stock performance is definitely in that challenges category. With this year winding down, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF has merely rallied 7.3% year-to-date. That’s really-poor performance compared to gold itself.
Despite spending the middle half of 2023 grinding sideways to lower, gold has enjoyed a solid year with 11.4% gains. Typically the major gold miners dominating GDX see their stock prices amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. So GDX should be up about 23% to 34% YTD, not just a third to fifth of that at terrible 0.6x upside leverage! To be worthwhile investments, gold miners need to outperform their metal.
They bear many additional risks beyond gold price trends, which traders need to be compensated for. Gold stocks’ vexing lagging is newer, they were quite strong in the first third of 2023. By mid-April, GDX had surged 25.0% YTD outpacing gold’s parallel 11.8% rally by a normal 2.1x. Those were parts of larger uplegs born in late September 2022, which clocked in at 63.9% and 26.3% gains respectively for 2.4x leverage.
Gold stocks really started decoupling from gold mid-year, and haven’t yet regained normal levels relative to the metal that drives their profits. Several anomalous market conditions contributed, including general stock markets’ artificial-intelligence bubble, elevated Fed-rate-hike fears, and a resulting monster bear rally in the US Dollar Index. All three weighed on gold demand, forcing the metal to consolidate for five months.
Gold has always been the leading alternative investment, the ultimate portfolio diversifier. Investors are most interested in prudently diversifying their stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold when stock markets are struggling. But when they are soaring to lofty levels fueling universal euphoria, diversification is forgotten. The AI bubble mostly ballooned from early January to late July, with the S&P 500 soaring 20.5%!
Remember your first experience with ChatGPT earlier this year? The AI hype for these large-language models was extreme. My wow moment was asking ChatGPT to write a short story for my kids, specifying a genre, hero, and backdrop. The result was so impressive I printed it out that day and read it to them at dinner. Some of my and my wife’s friends started using ChatGPT for work, greatly improving their writing.
Gold didn’t slouch during that AI bubble, rallying 7.2% in that span. But man the gains in market darlings led by NVIDIA were astounding. From early January to mid-July, that stock skyrocketed 233%! Demand for its repurposed graphics-processing chips that also excel in AI applications was off the charts. Gold and its miners’ stocks are largely forgotten during stock-market bubbles, they can’t compete for excitement.
While AI is here to stay, the extreme hype surrounding it has passed. The bloom is off the rose on AI actually improving corporate earnings. While LLMs like ChatGPT can do impressive things, they are ultimately bullshitting machines. Computers string together pleasing grammatically-perfect prose, but have no idea what they are writing! They can’t think, and often give factually-untrue answers on specific questions.
These so-called “hallucinations” are rampant, greatly limiting the real-world utility of AI responses. For humans, intelligence requires long experience, wisdom, and discernment enabling us to understand crucial context and relevant relationships. AI chatbots just stitch together seemingly-related information from their vast databases that might not be at all. It’ll be years before AI substantially boosts corporate profits.
Like all stock-market bubbles, this year’s AI one faces a mean-reversion reckoning. In late July when the S&P 500 originally crested, all its elite companies averaged 30.5x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratios. Entering December, those were still running 28.3x which remains in formal bubble territory over 28x! These still-lofty stock markets need to seriously sell off in 2024 to normalize dangerous overvaluations.
NVIDIA’s epic 229% YTD run is one reason the S&P 500 just surged to new higher highs well above its late-July AI-bubble peak. But NVDA faces mounting headwinds as other chipmakers ramp up competing AI processors. This past summer, NVIDIA was selling its H100 GPU accelerators which only cost about $3k to manufacture for $25k to $30k each! Those shocking profit margins will collapse in 2024, hitting this stock.
And again stock-market weakness is great for gold demand, helping investors remember the wisdom of diversifying their stock-heavy portfolios. As goes gold, so go the gold stocks typically with that 2x to 3x leverage. As this chart shows, both gold and GDX crested this past spring right around when the AI exuberance was shooting into overdrive. That distraction helped drive healthy rebalancing corrections in both.
The AI bubble wasn’t the only anomalous market condition that retarded gold demand in 2023, keeping gold miners out of favor. Another summer one was soaring expectations for more Fed rate hikes both this year and next. Both stronger-than-expected key US economic data and top Fed officials’ forecasts for their federal-funds rate drove that. My essay last week on Fed dots spurring gold analyzed all that in depth.
Back in mid-July leading into that AI-bubble peak, GDX was still holding its own up 13.8% YTD. The major gold stocks were doing much better then than this week’s +7.3%. Then in late July, an unusual huge upside surprise in US GDP data really ramped Fed-rate-hike odds. That accelerated a healthy US-dollar bear rally to massive proportions, unleashing withering extreme gold-futures short selling in August.
Gold dropped 1.3% that month, fairly resilient with the US Dollar Index blasting 1.7% higher. But the incessant more-Fed-rate-hikes-looming talk really scared gold-stock traders, who hammered GDX down an ugly 6.8% that month! That extreme 5.1x downside leverage highlights the magnitude of gold stocks’ decoupling from their metal. Then those anomalous market conditions actually accelerated in September.
The USDX’s mighty bear rally soared another 2.5%, slamming gold down 4.8% which GDX amplified to an 8.1% monthly loss! Traders were worried about top Fed officials’ higher-rates-for-longer jawboning, which was solidified in late September’s FOMC meeting. There these policymakers boosted their year-end-2024 FFR projections by 50 basis points to 5.13%. That really deepened the gold and gold-stock selling...
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The Gold Miners ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide involved primarily in the mining for gold, representing a diversified blend of small-, mid- and large-capitalization stocks. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
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