Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 30, 2023

At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 20651 and overhead resistance forming above at 20805. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 9 weeks reaching a high during the week of December 4th at 20106. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 3 weeks, which has been a sharp move of 4.051% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 18235 as it has fallen back reaching only 4523 which still remains -75.1% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 4th has exceeded the previous high of 20197 made back during the week of October 23rd. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 18235 made the week of October 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 20106. Additional support is to be found at 19672. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 3 weeks.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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