Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 20, 2024

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2023, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022 which signaled the rally would continue into 2023. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 1 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 20331 and support forming below at 20276. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 4th at 21523, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 2nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 13 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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