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Frank, don't know what's going on between you and Mr Donut, but I've had your thread bookmarked since I arrived here many months ago. Give this more thought, or come over to the Corner and help us continue to rock!
Arch
>>>>>¶<<<<< VERY LAST POST from me on this Board...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188625
Posted by: Francois+Goelo
In reply to: IH Admin (Matt) who wrote msg# 6304 Date: 9/27/2001 2:02:26 AM
Post # of 6305
***¶*** Matt, you haven't got a Clue...
Congratulation for having fallen for it Line, Hook and Sinker... I have the feeling that you won't get too many people to help you from the Grassroots level to build up your business again, when they discover they can be discarded at the first opportunity, even though they built "YOUR" Flagship Stock Thread on iHUB... I know you want to sell out and you'd like to have the Stock Flagship looking Nice and Pretty, money being a strong motivator for you...
SHAME on you, you INGRATE, when you bend to the will of proven LIARS and FRAUDSTERS (with 6 years Probation) and their Supporters...
Sent by PM: Rich McBride Date: 9/21/2001 3:28:04 PM
Frank
I will e-mail it to Huff and he will post over at RB.
I have started to PM it to everybody and Matt will be
back.
Enjoy the little power you have, while you still have
it.
Rich
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188289
Glad to see Frank controlled.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=187614
A breath of fresh air
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188300
People lets enforce the rules. It's our job to let Matt
know. If he gets tossed enough he will go through the
suspension process.
Rich McBride
**********************************************************
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=188129
Matt, what's your current Price and how much can you be bought for, not that you're worth anything, in my view??...
I have now terminated all my Boards here and will advise Posters of the NEW Message Board on which they'll be re-started... Matt, Greedy Opportunist, don't ever BEG me again to open a thread here when it was a barely moving (Post #3,200) Message Board because I'll tell you to EFF Yourself...
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
¶*** Lawmaker asks SEC to consider halting short selling
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010924/n24179329_1.html
WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers asked financial regulators on Monday to consider putting a temporary halt to short selling, saying the practice may be putting further pressure on already fragile markets.
ADVERTISEMENT
``I am concerned that the confluence of negative macroeconomic forces and possible short selling and speculation in stocks from industries now under pressure may be adding to the downward cycle we are seeing in the markets since trading resumed on Monday,'' said New York Democrat John LaFalce, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee.
``To the extent that short sellers have played a significant role in creating the current market conditions, I request that you consider the appropriateness of certain measures, including inhibiting short selling,'' LaFalce said in a letter to Securities and Exchange Commission head Harvey Pitt.
Short selling is a common but risky way of exploiting a fall in share price by selling borrowed shares, buying them back later at a cheaper price and keeping the difference as profit.
The Commission has the power to alter or suspend activities, such as short selling, if it decides it needs to do so to protect the public interest of investors, LaFalce said, citing the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Market regulators across the world have begun to look into the possibility that people with prior knowledge of the Sept. 11 jetliner attacks in New York and near Washington sold shares short, betting that the deadly events would drive down stocks, including insurance and airline shares.
There have also been reports that put options, whose value rises as underlying shares slip, were bought in large quantities in the run-up to Sept. 11, when hijacked airliners smashed into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
LaFalce also asked Pitt to analyze current market conditions to determine whether short selling or other similar activities have contributed to recent market declines.
Last week, the first full week of trading since the attacks, investors dumped stocks amid worries about the cost of possible U.S. military retaliation, massive layoff announcements and signs the economy may slide into a recession.
The Dow Jones industrial average skidded 1,370 points, its biggest weekly weekly loss since the Depression in the 1930s.
On Monday the markets rallied, with the blue-chip Dow Jones unofficially closing up about 366.7 points, or 4.5 percent, to 8,602.5. The technology-laced Nasdaq index unofficially closed up 75.9 points, or 5.3 percent, at 1,499.1
***¶*** WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 22, 2001
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 22, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
09/21/01 09/10/01 %Change
S&P 500 965.80 1,085.78 -11.05%
Dow Jones 8,235.81 9,605.85 -14.26%
NASD Comp 1,423.19 1,687.70 -15.67%
Russell 2000 378.89 445.19 -14.89%
SOX Index 381.01 513.91 -25.86%
Value Line 294.60 350.04 -15.84%
MS Growth 494.21 545.73 -9.44%
MS Cyclical 416.25 511.82 -18.67%
T - Bill 2.20% 3.18% -98 BP
Long Bond 5.59% 5.39% +20 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $292.90 $275.10 +$17.80
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.62 $4.18 +$.44
Economic News:
==============
FOMC Lowers Rates - Stock Market Reopens - Truly Ugly
Greenspan Congressional Testimony Not Market Sensitive
"V" Word Coming - War Victory and "V" Shaped Recovery
*FOMC Cuts Rates Intermeeting By One Half Point -
Fed Funds now 3.0% and Discount Rate now 2.5%
*Business Inventories fell -.4% in July - Sales rose +.4%
Inventory/Sales ratio improves to 1.42 months
*August Consumer Price Index up +.1% - Core Rate -
Without Energy and Food - Rose +.2%
*International Trade Deficit eased to $28.8 bil in July
*Beige Book Summary - Prior To September 11th - Economy
Generally sluggish in August and early September
*Jobless Claims eased -49,000 to 387,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose -3,250 to 409,000
*Philadelphia FRB Index in September improves to -7.3
From August's -23.5 - Prior to September 11 th
*August Housing Starts fell -6.9% to 1.527 mil rate -
July also revised downward, but still very strong
Obviously more time has passed since the horrific
terrorist attacks against the United States, and the
financial markets have reopened. The reaction, as
depicted in the table above, wasn't pretty - and this
after a terrible August, and a decline from the top,
basis S&P 500, of almost 30% prior to September 11th.
Our view before the attacks was that the markets
had over-reacted to the economic slowdown. And, not
surprisingly, given further significant declines in the
stock market, our conclusion hasn't changed, but the
nearer term outlook has.
First, a recession is now almost a certainty. Given a
virtual halt to economic activity because of the
attack, in part by the grounding of America's airline
industry, and as the public focused on every news report
and stayed away from the malls, third quarter GDP will
very likely be negative.
Later this coming week we will know if the second quarter
GDP growth rate is revised to negative, but even if not, the
fourth quarter will likely now be negative, rather than the
beginning of a recovery we had previously expected. So, it
is probable that the common "definition" of a recession,
two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, will be met.
But, in our view, it simply doesn't matter whether there is
a short, shallow recession or not. The year 2001 is almost
over. What matters is 2002, and whether or not a more serious
recession can be avoided, and an earnings recovery begin. We
are hopeful on both counts, as long as consumer confidence
doesn't collapse.
Predicting consumer confidence at the moment is impossible,
but there are some hopeful signs. It seems to me that
the spirit of Americans is rather high, given the incredible
outpouring of patriotism, as evidenced by nationwide
sellout of American flags of every description, to the
widespread sympathy for victims and their families, to the
appreciation of the efforts and heroism of rescue workers.
And then there were the symbolic acts, that were, and are
important - from the playing of the American National
Anthem at Buckingham Palace, and in Paris, to the visits
to America by foreign dignitaries, and NATO invoking Article V.
The message is quite clear that we are not fighting alone.
Now, I am not foolish enough to think this all translates into
retail sales instantly, but in my view it should help prevent
a long term "hunker down" mentality. If so, then the economic
impact could be more like the Gulf War, when retail spending
"hit the wall" - but only for a few weeks. And, we have the
calendar on our side.
And, for further support, the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) cut rates last Monday, and I expect will lower rates
further at their next meeting on October 2nd. On top of the
unprecedented easing of monetary policy, fiscal policy will
now become even more stimulative. At first there were the
tax cuts, now there will be serious spending, not just to help
rebuild New York City, but also for security measures - just
to start. It will be a massive effort, and well financed.
But, President Bush, in his Thursday night speech, was honest
and forthright. Nothing will be quick. Maybe a few air strikes
that make the evening news, but the war against terrorism will
be a long one - in my mind a permanent one if we are to prevail
and preserve the world's Democracies hard won freedoms. It
won't be easy, but in reality there is no other path. Again, as
President Bush implied, you are either with us, or against us.
At the moment, the world, or at least all the important players,
are with us. We will prevail - period. The "V" word will
ultimately resurface in everyday vocabulary, outside the
sports world. I suspect it will also resurface in the economic
lexicon, but not perhaps until early next year.
However, as you all know, the stock market is a discounting
mechanism, at least on an intermediate to longer term basis.
If you agree, and 2002 estimates hold, to say nothing of being
revised upward based upon massive fiscal and monetary stimulus,
then the stock market is a flat out - BUY.
We'll see, but I firmly believe six months from now the stock
market will be higher. Not by a little bit, but meaningfully.
In the meantime, volatility will remain. But, what counts
for the investor is the end result, not the intermediate near
fluctuations. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Leading Economic Indicators
Tuesday: Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales
Friday: Final 2Q Gross Domestic Product
¶ PNS+39% is flying on HP News....
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010918/182413_1.html
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 15, 2001...
by Bob Bose...
As regular subscribers obviously have noted, our format
this week is different. We left out the market statistics,
simply because the market was closed for most of the week,
and also omitted the summary of the actual economic reports,
as the horrific terrorist attack on Tuesday, September 11th,
changed the economic landscape considerably. In economic
terms, it was an exogenous event - entirely unpredictable.
Prior to Tuesday, the economic data was softening some, not
dramatically, but softer nonetheless. And, this past week
the trend continued, with the large drop in the Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index being rather important. But,
consumers continued to spend during August, so it was likely
more of the same - until Tuesday.
Everyone knows the details of the attack - all too well.
What we don't know is the economic impact, or the effect
on the financial markets, both near term, and longer run.
Rather then our usual format, my thoughts follow.
The rational response, everything else equal, would be for
somewhat lower stock prices. This is not to say one should
sell on Monday's open, as "gap down" pricing could quickly
bring prices to a rational level. My point is only that
uncertainty has obviously increased, and therefore there
should be a higher equity risk premium utilized to discount
future cash flows to a present value. So much for theory.
Practically, the "Greenspan Put" will be severely tested,
and it is highly likely, in my opinion, that if a near
term selloff is even remotely close to being severe, say a
few hundred points on the Dow, then the Federal Reserve
will lower rates - by one half point. They will not wait
until their early October meeting, preferring instead to
maintain the flexibility of an additional easing, should it
be necessary, and they must, institutionally, put a reasonable
amount of time between the reductions to avoid the appearance
of panic. So, the FRB will be ready to "help."
The economic question then becomes the consumer, and will
the consumer respond to lower rates, or "hunker down" as the
drop in consumer sentiment, if more widely confirmed, implies.
We simply don't know, especially given that the survey was
taken before Tuesday's cowardly attack. But, a "hunker
down" outcome is not foreordained.
First, the attack did not produce the panic that the
perpetrators were certainly planning on. The reaction of all
was simply an incredible show of courage, and calm behavior,
and all Americans coming together. The net result could be
a real lift in consumers' attitudes, not necessarily translated
into increases in consumer spending, but at least not a further
depressant. Perhaps I am reading too much into it, but when
calls went out for blood donors, a three hour wait resulted
locally, and then donors had to be turned away for the day.
To me that is an example of America at its best, not a belief
that "we" have to "hunker down."
Even without a "hunker down" mentality, though, the odds of
a recession have increased significantly - but in my view,
only as a technicality. Simply put, the disruption to
economic activity resulting from the attack will likely
have a short term negative impact on the third quarter,
tripping it into a negative GDP number, and either a soft
fourth quarter, or a revision to the second quarter would
then produce a technical recession. But, our view is still
that what counts for the financial markets is longer term,
2002, not the remainder of 2001.
Now, though, there is a different longer term "problem" for
the financial markets. As long as our high ranking elected
officials can be trusted, and I believe they can, America
is at war, thereby increasing uncertainty, and volatility,
but perhaps ultimately being quite positive. No surgical
strikes, no quick end, but a protracted campaign to "hunt
down" not only the terrorists, but also to eliminate their
bases of support - i.e. sovereign nations that support
terrorism, or provide safe harbors for terrorists.
In my view, this is a major step forward, if fully carried out.
To solve a problem, one must first realize what the problem is.
Relatively recent United States history has been unwilling to
"deal" fully with the problem. Former President Bush the Elder
did not follow through and eliminate Suddam Hussein, and while
former President Clinton had initiated air attacks against Osama
bin Laden, clearly he did not press the issue either. Those
failed approaches appear about to be changed.
But, the sanctuaries for terrorists are larger than just
Afghanistan and Iraq, so to fully implement a strategy of
eliminating their bases is essentially World War Three. But
here, the news is good - we will prevail, no doubt about it.
First, the democracies are united, even to the extent of invoking
Article V of the NATO Treaty - a strike against one is an attack
on all. And, Britain even went a step further in a display of
support by playing the United States National Anthem at the
changing of the guards at Buckingham Palace. Given the combined
power of these nations, the outcome is not in doubt, assuming the
will prevails. And, given the alternatives, the will should be
there.
So, where does this all leave us? Obviously a rocky path near
term, but one I firmly believe will be a better world once we,
with some help from our friends, eliminate the scourge of
cowardly terrorists - remembering that they can "progress" to
biological weapons capable of even more massive taking of human
life.
But even near term weakness in financial markets, has
historically passed rather quickly. Most political acts have
simply not had a lasting impact on the financial markets. In
other words, this too shall pass. And, I expect this time will
be no different.
The bad news is that it will be rocky for a while. The good
news is that given the forces now being aligned against
terrorism, the guys in the "white hats" will prevail. This is
not a chauvinist statement on my part, but simply an analysis
of the odds. I expect retaliation to our initial strikes, but
ultimately, combined with our allies, of which there are many,
our forces will prevail.
Bet on the "good guys." We will win, the democracies will
prevail, the world will ultimately be a safer place. It may
get ugly in between, but history is on our side, and financial
markets have historically responded positively to short term
disruptive events that are ultimately positive.
This time should be no different. Given the resolve of the
American people, and bi-partisan political support that lasts
for more than a few days, we will prevail.
If you have an investment horizon past the end of September,
my advice is to buy the dips. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Business Inventories
Tuesday: Consumer Price Index
Wednesday: FRB's Beige Book
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Housing Starts/Permits
***¶*** WTO Group Agrees on Chinese Membership...
This is in my view a very important event, as China, with close to 1.3 billion consumers, grows at about 7.5% per year, compared to quasi recession in the main industrialized countries... In addition, China is fairly well insulated from terrorists attacks and should avoid the kind of destabilization, we're seeing in the US... As custom tariffs for goods exported by China will progressively be lowered by up to 17%, I expect those favorable conditions to eventually be reflected in the value of a number of decent Chinese stocks, that are currently quite inexpensive...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010914/business_trade_wto_china_dc_1.html
GENEVA (Reuters) - World Trade Organization (WTO) officials said on Friday they had agreed terms for China's entry to the body -- clearing the way for Beijing to come in by the end of the year.
Agreement was sealed at a meeting of the WTO's special working party, which has been negotiating with China for the last 15 years.
``It has been done. The big breakthrough has been achieved,' said spokesman Keith Rockwell.
The accord will be rubber-stamped by a formal meeting of the working party on Monday. It will then go through the formality of confirmation by the WTO's ruling General Council, essentially the same negotiators who form the working party, or by ministers of all 142 member countries set to meet in Qatar in November.
China's entry will bring the world's fifth largest trading power -- after the United States, the European Union, Japan and Canada -- into the WTO, and, analysts say, change the balance of forces in the body forever.
``It is only the end of the beginning. It is a long process for China to implement and enforce the agreement and to a good WTO member,' chief Chinese negotiator Long Yongtu told reporters after the meeting.
MAJOR PLAYER
As a developing country, Beijing would be expected to add huge weight to the position of the poorer nations -- who already make up well over two thirds of the membership but complain that the current big four dictate the agenda to their own advantage.
``It was long and painful but in the end we have an agreement that will ensure the integration of China into the world trading system,' said the European Union's chief negotiator, Karl Falkenberg.
For the big four, known in trade parlance as ``The Quad,' the lure of a market of one billion people -- one sixth of the world's population -- for goods and services outweighed concerns over the stance China might take in the trade body.
Western leaders also argue that bringing China into the WTO and opening up its economy to the outside world will also bring domestic political liberalization and make the long feared 'Communist Dragon' a more predictable partner.
``All countries -- China and its partners -- would benefit. This should become a win-win game,' said Falkenberg.
But many developing economies fear that Chinese goods will capture markets for items like clothing, textiles and footwear as well as for agricultural produce that they had hoped to win themselves in the richer countries of the North.
On Thursday, Mexico completed a side agreement with China allowing it to maintain restrictions on many Chinese consumer goods for six years in order to give its industries time to adjust.
INSURANCE AN ISSUE
Right up to the last, however, the deal had also been threatened by a dispute between the EU and the United States over terms for foreign insurance companies opening new offices in China once it has come under the umbrella of WTO rules.
The two powers, with China in the middle, had been at odds over insistence by the United States that the huge American International Group Inc (AIG) conglomerate would be able to hold 100 per cent ownership of any new Chinese operations.
The EU argued that this would mean the AIG getting better terms than insurers from its 15 member states -- which would be bound by Chinese rules giving newcomers onto its market the right to only 50 percent ownership.
Such an outcome, Brussels said, would violate the WTO's basic principle of most-favored-nation, or no discrimination between trading partners who are members of the trade body.
There were no immediate details on how the differences had been resolved.
``The last page in this process reflected close cooperation between the United States and the European Union,' said Washington's top negotiator Jeffrey Bader.
***¶*** PETITION against Market Makers Manipulating OTC-BB's...
I have recently read and became signatory #1043 of the online petition:
"Boycott the OTC"
hosted on the web by PetitionOnline.com, the free online petition
service, at:
http://www.PetitionOnline.com/mm12/
I personally agree with the intent of this petition and I suggest you spare a moment, take a look and consider signing yourself.
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
ST, USXP: watching but staying away, so far... FG
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators Update: September 1....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: September 1, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
08/31/01 08/24/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,133.58 1,184.93 -4.33%
Dow Jones 9,949.75 10,423.17 -4.54%
NASD Comp 1,805.43 1,916.80 -5.81%
Russell 2000 468.56 480.81 -2.55%
SOX Index 562.72 594.91 -5.41%
Value Line 368.69 378.25 -2.53%
MS Growth 549.45 564.75 -2.71%
MS Cyclical 539.24 556.21 -3.05%
T - Bill 3.28% 3.33% -5 BP
Long Bond 5.37% 5.44% -7 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $276.50 $274.90 +$1.60
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.21 $4.19 +$.02
Economic News:
==============
Last Week's Market Reaction To Data A Gross Overreaction
Consumer Confidence Not Falling Apart - Just Easing
Late Second Half Recovery On Track - Led By The Consumer
*Existing Home Sales fell -3.0% in July - Below consensus
*Consumer Confidence eased to 114.3 in August from
July's 116.3
*2nd Qtr Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revised to +.2%
From +.7%
*Jobless Claims eased -1,000 to 399,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +12,500 to 393,000
*July Consumer Spending rose just +.1% - Personal Income +.5%
*Factory Orders for July rose +.1% - Above consensus
*Univ. of Michigan August Consumer Sentiment eased to 91.5
July level 92.4 - Mid August was 93.4
*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 43.5 versus
Expectations of 40.0
Last week we had commented that we thought the Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC) made a mistake when they
announced the results of their meeting. The intense focus
on only modest signs of weakness in last week's data
reinforces our view. In very short order, the "Greenspan
Put" is being tested.
For those of you that haven't been subscribers for long,
the notion of the "Greenspan Put" is simply that the
FOMC has come to the rescue of recent market breaks by
lowering rates rapidly, thereby bailing out investors.
Sort of the equivalent of being long a put option.
The rationale for the FOMC is simply that they are big
believers in the "wealth effect" which assumes a tight,
and significant linkage between changes in net worth
and consumer spending. We are much bigger believers in
the "income effect", and were therefore pleased with the
July Personal Income report. And, as longer term
subscribers know, we firmly believe that if the American
consumer has the wherewithal (i.e. income) and the
confidence, they will spend. At the moment, confidence
is the key issue.
Clearly consumer confidence softened a bit in August,
but we would emphasize that the change was modest, and
a rather typical, and lagged, response to the increase in
the unemployment rate. And, as the unemployment rate is
a lagging indicator, and very likely to move higher, we
would also expect consumer confidence to soften further.
But, and this is a big but, soften is not the same as
a collapse that then severely impacts consumer spending
as some market participants last week believed.
For instance, the same day that the consumer confidence
report was released, Investors' Business Daily reported
that Wal-Mart's August sales were above plan, and they
had been projecting year-over-year gains of 4% - 6%.
And, the very next article noted that other major
retailers were " ... largely on plan." Although it should
be obvious, although anecdotal evidence, these results
are more "current" than the official "Consumer Spending"
report released last Thursday, and support our belief that
the slight softening in consumer confidence will not
lead to an acceleration to the downside in spending.
Further support for our view was the revision to 2nd Qtr
GDP. As noted above, the revision was downward, but not
into negative territory. While the final revision could
go negative, what really is important is not plus/minus
a few tenths of one percent in old data. What counts is
that the downward revision was heavily concentrated in
inventories and trade. Obviously the reduction in
inventories helps clear the "pipeline" for the resumption
of production growth.
And, while the media may try to put a negative spin on it,
Friday's "manufacturing oriented" reports were both better
than expected. Obviously we would like confirmation of the
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index next week, but for now
the evidence supports our view that bouncing along the
bottom is different than the FOMC view that there remain
significant risks to the downside.
Not surprisingly, we haven't changed our view for a late
second half recovery, that accelerates into 2002. At
current levels, even the Federal Reserve Board's "valuation
model" is positive, supporting our view that last week's
selloff, and the month of August for that matter, were an
overreaction to very short term economic softness.
Stay tuned, volatility will be with us for quite some time !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: LABOR DAY HOLIDAY - FINANCIAL MARKETS CLOSED
Tuesday: Construction Spending, National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index
Wednesday: Revised 2nd Qtr Productivity
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Labor Department Employment Report, Wholesale Trade
Nasdaq is proposing to add new NASD Rule 6540(b) to the NASD Rule 6500 Series, which governs the operation of the OTC Bulletin Board (OTCBB). The purpose of the proposed rule change is to permit ECN and ATS participation in the OTCBB.
For further details regarding the proposed changes, see SEC Release No. 34-44732 as it was published in the Federal Register on August 28, 2001.
Regards
sprintcar
Hey FG, do you have any thoughts on usxp? There has been some interesting pr lately....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=usxp.ob&d=v1
BESC: BestNet Adds Fortune 100 Company to Client List
TUCSON, Ariz., Aug. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- BestNet Communications Corp.
(OTC Bulletin Board: BESC) provider of patented Internet-based communication
services, announced today that it has entered into an agreement to provide
international long-distance services to a US based Fortune 100 company
operating in over 200 countries.
Execution of the agreement concluded a 12 month trial of Bestnet's long
distance and conference calling services involving the Fortune 100 company's
offices in North America, Mexico and South America. During that period,
quality, adaptability and cost-savings were strictly monitored.
Kelvin Wilbore, Project Manager for BestNet said, "We believe that the
execution of this agreement evidences how well adapted our long distance and
conference calling services are for large organizations. Our service not only
provides significant cost savings for voice calls, but provides real-time
billing and management features not offered by traditional telecommunication
companies."
Gerry Quinn, President and CEO of BestNet said, "This agreement represents
a milestone for our company. From the beginning, we have worked very hard to
build a quality service suited for global businesses. Starting when our
product was in beta-trial, this multi-national company provided valuable
feedback used to improve every aspect of our service. We believe that the
patented technology upon which our services are based insulates us from direct
competition, and that our recent success in securing a global organization as
a user of our service further validates Bestnetcall as a valuable
communication tool for business and industry."
BestNet Communications Corp. is an Internet-based provider of long
distance, conference calling and e-commerce communication services. BestNet's
service uses access and control of the Internet with existing telephone
infrastructure (i.e., the public switched telephone network) to complete
calls. The Company provides access to its services via the web, desktop and
handhelds including Palm(TM), Pocket PC(R) and Blackberry(TM) devices. The
patented Bestnetcall.com system provides toll quality, global access, low
rates, real-time billing and call management features. Bestnetcall.com is used
by business and residential customers in over 120 countries. To learn more
about Bestnetcall, visit our website at: www.bestnetcall.com
This press release contains certain forward-looking statements made
pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995. This information may involve risks and uncertainties that
could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking
statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences
include, but are not limited to, those factors detailed by BestNet
Communications Corp in its filings with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
For further information please contact BestNet Communications Corp.,
+1-520-750-9093, ext. 207.
SOURCE BestNet Communications Corp.
-0- 08/23/2001
/CONTACT: BestNet Communications Corp., +1-520-750-9093, ext. 207/
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: August 18, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
08/17/01 08/10/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,161.97 1,190.16 -2.37%
Dow Jones 10,240.78 10,416.25 -1.69%
NASD Comp 1,867.01 1,956.47 -4.57%
Russell 2000 475.65 475.52 +.03%
SOX Index 555.54 593.05 -6.33%
Value Line 373.82 378.67 -1.28%
MS Growth 554.49 547.08 +1.35%
MS Cyclical 547.74 559.25 -2.06%
T - Bill 3.29% 3.35% -6 BP
Long Bond 5.42% 5.53% -11 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $282.00 $276.80 +$5.20
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.27 $4.15 +$.12
Economic News:
==============
Last Week's Data On The Surface Somewhat Mixed
Details, And Important Reports, Much More Positive
Nothing Changes Our Forecast For Late Second Half Recovery
*July Retail Sales unchanged - Ex Autos +.2%
June revised from +.2% to unchanged - See Below
*Business Inventories fell -.4% - Sales fell -1.4%
Inventory/Sales Ratio ticks up to 1.43 months
*July Industrial Production fell -.1% - Capacity
Utilization edged lower to 77.0% from 77.2%
*Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 380,000 - Four Week
Moving Average down -9,250 to 370,750 - Five month low
*July Housing Starts rose +2.8% to 1.67 mil annual rate
But Housing Permits eased -1.8%
*July Consumer Price Index fell -.3% - Core Rate
Ex volatile food and energy rose +.2%
*August Philadelphia FRB Index fell to -23.5 from -12.2
*June Trade Deficit -$29.4 bil - In line with consensus
*Univ. of Michigan mid-month Consumer Sentiment 93.4
Up from July's 92.4 and consensus forecast of 92.0
Expectations rose to 101.7 from July's 98.6
Although there were a few soft spots in last week's
reports, on balance, in our opinion, the numbers were
pretty good. And, given the continued lack of any
buildup of inflationary pressures, it is about as good
a bet as one can make that the Federal Open Market
Committee (FOMC) will lower rates by one quarter of
one percent after their meeting on Tuesday. So, that
decision is already "priced into" the market. What
isn't "priced in" is the improving outlook for 2002.
First, the all important consumer continues to keep
the economy out of recession, although retail sales
were unchanged for July. However, gasoline is, not
too surprisingly, a decent component of retail sales,
and as we all know, the price of gasoline has been
falling sharply. The impact is not only that of a
modest tax cut, but also to suppress reported retail
sales growth. In other words, retail sales are
holding up quite well.
Friday's release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Report was also a positive. Not only did it tick up,
versus a consensus expectation of a modest decline,
but the more forward looking expectations subcomponent
had a larger gain. Granted, it is only one data point,
but it is directionally important, and at the worst
implies that the outlook for consumer spending has
not deteriorated.
The manufacturing sector, which has been declining
sharply, may now be bottoming out. For instance,
while overall industrial production declined slightly
in July, manufacturing production was flat. And, then
there is the continuing improvement in the jobless
claims reports, as the less volatile four week moving
average is at a five month low, and as we noted last
week continues to contradict some of the Beige Book.
In part the explanation may lie in the continuing
decline in the manufacturing sector as a source of jobs,
as the service sector becomes increasingly important.
Or, it may simply be that the lagged impact of the
labor markets is beginning to decelerate. In any
case, we are not trying to assert that all is well
in the manufacturing sector, or that the unemployment
rate won't rise further - it will.
Our view is that the economy continues to bounce along the
bottom, at virtually zero growth. But, it seems quite
likely that consumers will not precipitate an acceleration
to the downside, and that the stimulative impact of prior
monetary easing, and the current tax refund, will produce
the desired recovery beginning later this year.
And, the FOMC will take out an "insurance policy" next
week. It may not help the financial markets near term,
but our view remains that the key driver for the stock
market should be the outlook for 2002. Barring some
exogenous event, a recovery toward trendline growth
beginning late this year, and accelerating in 2002, should
stabilize forecasts, and ultimately lead the stock
market higher.
Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Leading Economic Indicators
Tuesday: FOMC Meeting
Thursday: Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes - June Meeting
Friday: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales
¶CDDD: close watch warranted, as stock...
may have turned around and definitely is a compelling story...
Constellation 3D Issues Letter to Investors
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 19, 2001--Constellation 3D, Inc. (``C3D'') (Nasdaq/NMS: CDDD - news), developer of Fluorescent Multilayer Discs (FMD) and Cards (FMC), today issued the following letter to shareholders and other interested parties, in the form of this press release.
Dear Shareholders,
Recently we all have been witnessing a dramatic change in the trading pattern of C3D shares in the market. It is our strong belief that the share price fluctuations have no relation to what management believes is the tremendous value offered by the continued development of FMD technology. To the contrary, we are more excited about our potential than at any time in our history.
I wanted to take this opportunity to share with you an update on your company.
The recently announced agreement with WAMO is clearly one of the most important moments in our young Company's business history. However, there is a long road ahead. The final results of the collaboration will be realized after months of hard work by our scientists and engineers and the team from WAMO. As we emphasized in our last conference call, the development of strategic relationships with worldwide industry leaders would be a top priority of C3D. WAMO was the leader behind the development and market introduction of DVD.
We expect our relationship with WAMO will be a long and fruitful one. The first priority of the program will be to extend and enhance the FMD mass production technology development that was begun with Plasmon Plc. several months ago, and continues. It is of the utmost priority to WAMO and all potential developers of FMD based products to demonstrate conclusively that a high capacity FMD disc meets market requirements and can be manufactured inexpensively. We are anxious to prove this to the consumer market. I also want to take this opportunity to compliment our SVP for Business Development, Steve Haddad, and his growing business development team for developing the WAMO relationship. In the short period of time since he joined C3D, Steve has added tremendous value to our Company and I expect further rewards from his continued efforts will be seen in the coming months.
Our Company has also achieved significant advances, both technologically and strategically, on Recordable-Removable FMD storage (WORM). The Company is making its first significant steps in introducing this technology for consumer electronic markets. You can expect further announcements on this matter in the near future.
In face of the developments in the financial markets during the last several days, it is only appropriate to share with our shareholders the information that the management of the Company received. We have all been looking with a high degree of curiosity as to why the trading volume has increased more than tenfold, while the price of the shares in the market decreased. We have recently received information from certain shareholders informing us that a significant amount of shares held by them were liquidated due to margin calls that they experienced. We believe these sales have triggered a decrease in the price of our stock in an almost snowballing fashion. It seems that our shareholders' overall confidence in our technology has caused this process to begin to reverse itself. I wish to express our gratitude to all of our shareholders who continue to support our Company.
In addition, there have been several inaccurate comments made with regard to the Company issuing a certain number of Warrants for what was thought to be less than fair value. Nothing can be further from the truth. The fact is that the Company, in three separate instances, resolved outstanding matters at full value or possibly more than full value. In our dispute with Clearview Capital, the Company settled for a certain amount of money that was paid in stock valued at $5 per share. Further, there were restrictions on the selling of said stock. This saved the Company cash and litigation fees. The Company also restructured its prior financing of $15.8 million, removing a troubling reset provision and again bringing added value to all shareholders. Lastly, the Company settled its dispute with Sands Brothers, eliminating almost 3,000,000 shares from its public float. These settlements, which greatly enhance shareholder value, will also make our next financing much easier to accomplish.
On the technology front, our scientists are making significant progress on all aspects of FMD technology. New developments occur on almost a daily basis. Since the early stages of this Company's history, I have been amazed at the tireless efforts and dedication of our scientific and engineering teams. The term `World Class' is thrown around too often, but I can say with confidence that there is not a research facility at any university, corporation or government office that wouldn't love to have a team of people of the caliber of the C3D staff.
For business and strategic reasons, I am not able to discuss each program we have in development, but we are making continuous progress and we regularly conduct demonstrations under strict non-disclosure agreements with major corporations. Public announcements and demonstrations will be held when they meet our business objectives.
C3D has reached a critical point in its history. There are bound to be some challenging moments as we transition from an R & D company to a profitable business enterprise. However, with the new additions to our management team and the skills they bring to C3D, I am highly optimistic that this five-year-old company and its revolutionary technology, that a few visionary scientists and I developed, will soon be a household name.
Thank you for your continued support.
Warm Regards,
Dr. Eugene Levich Chairman and CEO Constellation 3D. Inc
About Constellation 3D
The Company is the worldwide leader in the development of high capacity Fluorescent Multilayer Disc and Card (FMD/C) technology. Constellation 3D holds or has made applications for over 120 worldwide patents in the field of optical data storage, and is supported by 65 scientists. Headquartered in New York City, the Company has additional offices and laboratories in Massachusetts, Texas, Israel and Russia. More information is available at www.c-3d.net.
-0-
Safe Harbor Statement
Statements contained in the news release that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements as ``management believes is the tremendous value offered by the continued development of FMD technology,'' ``agreement with WAMO is clearly one of the most important moments in our young Company's business history,'' ``We expect our relationship with WAMO will be a long and fruitful one,'' ``I expect further rewards from his (Haddad's) continued efforts will be seen in the coming months,'' ``The Company is making its first significant steps in introducing this technology for consumer electronic markets,'' ``These settlements... make our next financing much easier to accomplish,'' ``On the technology front...new developments occur on almost a daily basis,'' ``and ''I am highly optimistic that this five-year-old company and its revolutionary technology... will soon be a household name offering a new standard in removable data storage`` are subject to risks and uncertainties including competition, ongoing discussions with product and equipment manufactures, and technological advances, and ''Risk Factors`` as stated in recent SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from expected results.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Constellation 3D, New York
John Ellis, 781/933-9435
marketing@c-3d.net
or
Investor/Broker Inquiries:
FOCUS Partners LLC
Bradley Meyer/Harvey Goralnick, 212/752-9445
investors@c-3d.net
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: August 11, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
08/10/01 08/03/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,190.16 1,214.35 -1.99%
Dow Jones 10,416.25 10,512.78 -.92%
NASD Comp 1,956.47 2,066.33 -5.32%
Russell 2000 475.52 487.15 -2.39%
SOX Index 593.05 641.06 -7.49%
Value Line 378.67 388.59 -2.55%
MS Growth 547.08 544.86 +.41%
MS Cyclical 559.25 568.95 -1.71%
T - Bill 3.35% 3.43% -8 BP
Long Bond 5.53% 5.58% -5 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $276.80 $270.80 +$6.00
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.15 $4.23 -$.08
Economic News:
==============
Last Week Focus Was On The Negatives - And There Were Some
Markets Ignored One Huge Positive - Productivity Growth
Our Best Bet Is Still For A Late Second Half Recovery
*Consumer Credit fell -$1.5 billion in June - At -1.2% rate
*Second Quarter Productivity rose at +2.5% rate - See Below
*FRB Beige Book - Softer Than Expected - See Below
*June Wholesale Sales fell -.9% - Wholesale Inventories -.2%
Inventory/Sales Ratio 1.33 months - Highest in two years
*Jobless Claims rose +33,000 to 385,000 - But Four Week
Moving Average down -16,000 to 380,000 - Four month low
*July Producer Price Index fell -.9% - Core Rate - Without
Volatile Food & Energy Prices - Rose +.2%
Last week financial market participants focused on the negative
Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Beige Book and concluded that the
economy was accelerating to the downside. They ignored the
very, very positive report on second quarter productivity.
And, while some reports are only loved by economists, productivity
drives living standards, as well as corporate profits. But, as
is often the case, investors are focusing on the very short term
negatives and ignoring a long term positive.
The "negative" trigger was the FRB Beige Book in general, and
the comment that "Sustained weakness in the manufacturing
sector spilled over to other businesses ... " (from the
Summary) in particular. But some of the comments from the
Beige Book don't "square" with other data.
For instance, under the Manufacturing subheading, " ...
layoffs were pervasive." But, as noted above, the less
volatile four week moving average of jobless claims is at a
four month low. And, under the Labor Markets subheading
"Most Districts reported that conditions in labor markets
remained steady or loosened somewhat in recent weeks." That
comment is not reinforced by the Labor Department Report
of the prior week, even though the surveys would have been
conducted at approximately the same time.
Then there were the reports of sluggish retail sales, but there
was a big difference between discount stores and those that
sell more upscale merchandise. For instance, WalMart reported
July same store sales rose +6% - an excellent gain. But
Federated Department Stores (Bloomingdale's) reported a decline
of -4.2% in same store sales. Clearly WalMart is benefiting
from the tax refund checks, as are other discounters, so we
continue to believe that retail sales, particularly outside
the auto sector, will not soften materially.
Obviously, then, we do not share the degree of gloom that
some "read into" the FRB Beige Book, preferring instead to
focus on the growth of productivity for the second quarter.
Given the context of essentially flat GDP growth, a gain of
+2.5% is excellent.
The reason that this number is so important is really twofold.
First, on a fundamental level it reduces the threat that
inflationary pressures will build, thereby easing one of my main
concerns. And second, it tends to validate Chairman Greenspan's
assumption that much of the productivity growth of the late 1990's
was secular, not cyclical. If he is right, there are profound
implications for monetary policy.
Simply put, higher productivity growth supports the FRB's higher
growth rate assumptions of sustainable, non-inflationary growth.
We have discussed a target range of 3.5% - 4.0% in the past, but
questioned the validity of that range, given weakened productivity
trends, particularly in this year's first quarter. If the latest
numbers hold up, the FRB will be slower to raise rates during
the economic recovery, and corporate profits will be higher,
lending support to higher valuation metrics.
Obviously we don't think all the news last week was bad. Quite
the contrary. It is simply a question of getting from the here
and now, out a few months, when we believe the recovery starts
to take hold. And given our longer term investing time horizon,
we remain optimistic that the financial markets will improve
later this year. So, stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Tuesday: Retail Sales
Wednesday: Business Inventories, Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts/Permits, Philadelphia FRB Index
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: August 4, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
08/03/01 07/27/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,214.35 1,205.82 +.71%
Dow Jones 10,512.78 10,416.67 +.92%
NASD Comp 2,066.33 2,029.07 +1.84%
Russell 2000 487.15 485.01 +.44%
SOX Index 641.06 601.67 +6.55%
Value Line 388.59 385.60 +.78%
MS Growth 544.86 539.67 +.96%
MS Cyclical 568.95 561.43 +1.34%
T - Bill 3.43% 3.46% -3 BP
Long Bond 5.58% 5.54% +4 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $270.80 $270.20 +$.60
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.23 $4.22 +$.01
Economic News:
==============
Manufacturing Sector Still Weak, But Consumer Sector Solid
Consumer Drives Two Thirds Of Economic Activity
Don't Bet Against American Consumer - Recovery Still Likely
*Personal Income rose +.4% in June - Personal Spending
Rose +.3% - Both were ahead by +.1% of prior month
*Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures +.2%
*July Consumer Confidence eased to 116.5 from 118.9
*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 38.0 in July
From June's 44.4 - Back to May level
*June Construction Spending fell -.7%
*Nat'l Purchasing Manages' Index eased to 43.6 in July
From 44.7 in June
*June Factory Orders fell -2.4% - Inventories down -.7%
*Jobless Claims fell -23,000 to 346,000 - Four Week
Moving Average down -14,500 to 395,250
*Labor Department Employment Report
- Unemployment Rate unchanged at 4.5%
- Nonfarm Payrolls fell -42,000
- Average Hourly Earnings rise $.04/hr to $14.35
- Average Workweek unchanged at 34.2 hours
Last week's reports continued to highlight the vast split
between the manufacturing sector and the consumer sector.
The former remains weak, although the auto sector and textile
industries make the data less reliable at this time of
year. But, the consumer continues to "carry the day."
And, in our view consumption spending will hold up, and
as the inventory adjustment runs its course, manufacturing
should pick up. Overall, we remain optimistic that a
recovery will begin late in the second half.
The "key" is clearly the consumer, and the news is good.
First, consumer confidence, though it eased, has held up
very, very well. The reason, in our view, is simply that
the labor markets have remained strong, and virtually anyone
who wants a job has one, as confirmed by the latest
Labor Department Report.
For instance, payrolls did not decline as much as the consensus
thought they would, and the decline was, again, concentrated
in manufacturing. The result was that the unemployment rate
was unchanged, versus a consensus estimate of an increase of
+.2% to 4.7%. The reason this is important is simply that
the "rate" will get the play in the media, and unchanged
is not a "depressing" bit of news to the consumer. So, the
odds of a sharp fall off in confidence diminish. And, as
longer term readers know, we firmly believe that if consumers
have both the confidence and income, they will spend, as they did
in June.
Clearly income has, and should continue to hold up well. Wages
are going up, and in fact the year-over-year increase was
up slightly to +4.4% - which doesn't thrill us, and serves as a
reminder that productivity improvement during the recovery will
be important. But, for the moment, wage increases, combined
with rebate checks, support consumer spending.
And, our assumption that rebate checks will be spent appears to
be holding up fairly well, at least according to WalMart. As
you may know, they have a program for cashing rebate checks,
and they have reported that they are in fact being spent. Given
the phased mailing, such spending support should run through
the end of next month.
One other point worth noting is that so far this year, payrolls
have risen, not by much, but up nonetheless. During recessions,
not surprisingly, payrolls decline. The point here is simply that
if the worst is behind us in terms of layoffs in the manufacturing
sector, and remember that labor markets lag, then there is still
more reason to believe that the important consumer sector will
hold up, and ultimately drive the economic recovery.
Obviously the manufacturing sector is still weak, but we don't
think the latest Purchasing Managers' data indicates a renewed
acceleration to the downside. In part, because the National
Index didn't change much, in part because of the timing problems
from the auto sector, and in part because inventories appear to be
being brought under control.
Excluding an exogenous event, then, our view remains the same.
A late second half recovery is likely, and by early-mid 2002,
growth should have returned to at least 3.0% and perhaps a
little better. It is still too early to declare victory for
the soft landing, but in our view it remains the best bet.
So, stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Tuesday: Consumer Credit, Nonfarm Productivity Q2
Wednesday: FRB Beige Book
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Producer Price Index
Universal Express Expects to Collect $389 Million up over 300%
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010730/2338.html
Monday July 30, 9:47 am Eastern Time
Press Release
Universal Express Expects to Collect on Record $389 Million Jury Award
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 30, 2001--Universal Express, Inc.'s (OTC:USXP - news) General Counsel, Chris Gunderson, in response to numerous inquiries, clarified yesterday's press release on the award of a record $389 Million Dollar damage judgment in favor of the Company against Select Capital, Ronald G. Williams and Walter S. Kolker rendered after trial before a jury in the Circuit Court, Dade County, Florida on Wednesday, to the effect that the Company expects to collect a substantial part of the judgment within a relatively short period of time.
``Our trial counsel, Arthur W. Tifford, of Miami, has a great deal of experience against these defendants and has collected monies against them in other cases. Mr. Tifford expects to recover on behalf of the Company a substantial part of the judgment with a relatively short period of time, stated Mr. Gunderson.
``The jury, after hearing testimony during the day, deliberated for an hour or so and brought in the record verdict based on the extensive frauds of the defendants toward the Company. They were instructed by a very experienced judge, Circuit Judge Eleonor Schockett, they asked questions of the witnesses under a new procedure in Florida, and the judgment upon the verdict of $389 million dollars was entered by Judge Schockett'', stated Mr. Gunderson. This judgment, which includes $275 million dollars in punitive damages, is final and cannot be appealed. Also, the judgment is grounded in fraud and is not subject to discharge in bankruptcy``, Mr. Gunderson further stated.
``We are very grateful to the jury and the Court and will forcefully pursue collection steps through our attorneys by all means available, both here and abroad, to justify the jury's confidence in the Company'', stated Richard A. Altomare, President and CEO of USXP. ``Should there be any sums not collected, they appear to be able to be carried over as a tax loss for the Company or any acquiring company. This is an additional benefit not yet fully addressed and still being studied by our professionals and advisors'', continued Mr. Altomare.
Universal (USXP) operates several other subsidiaries in logistics (Luggage Express(TM)) and International shipping (WorldPost). Its association of private postal stores (PBC) provides various support services and numerous other programs to its members.
Visit Universal Express and its subsidiaries on the web at http://www.usxp.com
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements contained herein which are not historical are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, certain delays beyond the company's control with respect to market acceptance of new technologies or products, delays in testing and evaluation of products, and other risks detailed from time to time in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Universal Express, Inc.
Chris Gunderson, 917/639-4154
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 28, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
07/27/01 07/20/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,205.82 1,210.85 -.42%
Dow Jones 10,416.67 10,576.65 -1.51%
NASD Comp 2,029.07 2,029.37 -.02%
Russell 2000 485.01 487.93 -.60%
SOX Index 601.67 574.30 +4.77%
Value Line 385.60 387.38 -.46%
MS Growth 539.67 546.30 -1.21%
MS Cyclical 561.43 571.18 -1.71%
T - Bill 3.46% 3.44% +2 BP
Long Bond 5.54% 5.53% +1 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $270.20 $270.20 UNCH
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.22 $4.24 -$.02
Economic News:
==============
Economy Bouncing Along The Bottom - Inflation Data Positive
FOMC Has Room To Lower Rates Further - And Likely Will
Recovery Late Second Half Still Best, And Good, Bet
*Existing Home Sales in June eased -.6% - Still Very
Strong at 5.33 million annualized rate
*Durable Goods Orders for June fell -2.0%
*Jobless Claims fell -51,000 to 366,000 - Four Week
Moving Average down -6,250 to 409,000
*Employment Cost Index rose +.9% in Second Quarter
*Gross Domestic Product for Second Quarter rose +.7%
First Quarter revised back upward to +1.3% - See Below
*June New Home Sales rose +1.7% to 922,000 - May
Revised downward - But Very Strong Report - See Below
*Univ. of Michigan July Consumer Sentiment eased from
Mid-month 93.7 to 92.4 - But unchanged versus June 92.6
Last week's reports firmed our belief that the economy
is "bouncing along the bottom", will not slip into a
recession, and that recovery will begin before year end.
Two important reports also eased our concern, somewhat, that
inflationary pressures will build as the economy recovers.
In other words, a pretty good week.
First, the big news was the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
report. The obvious point is that there was growth, albeit
anemic. Clearly large revisions are possible, and even ones
where the sign would change. But for now, there hasn't
even been one quarter of negative GDP, let alone two, which
would comply with the official definition of a recession.
Somewhat below the surface data, inventories were cut back
sharply and consumption spending was +2.1% - down from +3.0%
in the first quarter, but not bad given the softening labor
market. And, Chairman Greenspan's favorite measure of
inflation was well behaved.
Specifically, the personal consumption expenditure index
rose +1.7%. Not only is this a non-inflationary number, but
it is a sharp slowdown from the first quarter's +3.2%. And,
further support that inflationary pressures will not build
near term was the small rise in the Employment Cost Index
(ECI) of +.9%. Again, a modest gain, and a deceleration from
the first quarter rate.
New Home Sales continued at a very high rate, and actually
increased +1.7% in June to 922,000. This is the seventh
consecutive month for which sales have exceeded 900,000, which
is a first, according to the Wall Street Journal, since this
series began in 1963. Clearly the housing sector remains robust.
And, the labor market even improved somewhat, but the volatility
of jobless claims is notorious. However, although no official
explanation was given, there were sharp drops in claims in many
of the "automotive" states. Maybe auto industry model changeover
shifts are still impacting the data, or perhaps the majority of
the layoffs are behind us in that sector. Too soon to know, but
any improvement in the claims data, at this point, is positive.
Overall, then, we liked last week's reports, and believe that the
economy is pretty much tracking an "Econ 101" scenario. Monetary
tightening produced the slowdown, but a prompt policy reversal
seems to be working to avoid a recession. The normal policy lag
would be six to nine months, so "support" should begin to "kick
in" right about now, and continue through year end. And fiscal
policy is also turning more supportive, with the leading economic
indicators having risen three months in a row, our view for a
late second half recovery is tracking well. And, we even got a
pleasant surprise from the inflation data.
So, no change in our outlook, but we are increasingly confident
of our views. So, stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Tuesday: Personal Income/Personal Spending, Consumer Confidence, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index
Wednesday: National Purchasing Managers' Index, Construction Spending
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Friday: Labor Department Employment Report
¶ TRID: Trident Microsystems Reports Fourth Quarter Profit And Annual Results For Fiscal Year 2001
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Jul 26, 2001 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Trident
Microsystems, Inc. (Nasdaq: TRID) reported today its financial results for the
fiscal quarter and year ended June 30, 2001. The company announced that its net
sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2001 were $32,392,000, an increase of 31%
from $24,724,000 for the prior quarter and an increase of 22% from $26,649,000
for the fourth quarter of the prior fiscal year. The net income for the fourth
quarter of fiscal 2001 was $2,367,000, or $0.17 diluted earnings per share
compared to a pro forma net loss of $3,961,000 or $0.30 loss per share for the
prior quarter, excluding the prior quarter write down of investments of
$77,808,000 less the related tax benefits of $31,123,000. The Company reported
net income of $1,946,000 or $0.13 per share for the fourth quarter of the prior
fiscal year.
The Company announced net sales for fiscal 2001 of $118,959,000, as compared to
$117,682,000 for the prior fiscal year. Net loss for the fiscal year ended June
30, 2001 was $43,640,000, or $3.33 loss per share. Excluding the write down on
investments of $77,808,000, less the related tax benefits, pro forma net income
for fiscal year ended June 30, 2001 would have been $3,045,000, or $0.22 per
share. Net income for fiscal year ended June 30, 2000 was $68,107,000, or $4.43
per fully diluted share. Excluding a non-recurring net investment gain of
$114,984,000 less the related tax cost of $45,994,000, pro forma net loss for
fiscal year ended June 30, 2000 would have been $883,000, or $0.07 loss per
share.
"After three consecutive years of operating loss since fiscal year 1998, for the
first time, we have successfully delivered income from operations of $2.4
million for fiscal year 2001. We can attribute this significant turnaround to
two factors; firstly, our integrated 3D graphics and core logic products
continued its revenue momentum with the top PC OEMs; secondly, we successfully
implemented prudent company-wide expense control measures over the last year
without sacrificing major technology and product developments," stated Mr. Frank
Lin, Trident's President, CEO and Chairman.
"During the quarter, the revenue momentum for our top-of-the-line 3D graphics
controller CyberBlade XP continued strongly. In addition, Trident has begun
volume shipments of our CBAi1 integrated 3D graphics and ALi core logic chipset
to a number of top-tier OEM customers. These two products accounted for
approximately 56% of total revenue in the quarter, " said Mr. Lin. "The most
advanced DDR-supported integrated 3D graphics/core logic chipsets, CyberALADDiN
and CyberMAGiK as announced last quarter, are now ramping up in production and
we expect to announce a number of design wins shortly, demonstrating solid
market acceptance of our leading edge technologies," stated Mr. Lin.
"In the digital media consumer electronics marketplace, while the DPTV sales is
still slower than anticipated due to weak market condition and long development
cycles of TV production, the design-in momentum is strong and accelerating. We
will soon announce the next generation DPTV products which have been evaluated
and well received by top-tier DTV manufacturers and have potential design wins
in the making. As we have stated repeatedly in the past, when market conditions
improve and more customers start ramping up in production, we anticipate that
sales revenue of our DPTV products will increase significantly," concluded Mr.
Lin.
Forward-Looking Information
This press release contains forward-looking statements, including statements
which use the words "expect," "anticipate," "potential," regarding the
expectations for new markets. The forward-looking statements above are subject
to certain risks, and actual results could vary materially depending on a number
of factors. These risks include, in particular, changes in trends in the PC and
the DPTV industries, changes in targeted consumer electronics markets such as
Digital Television, Trident's ability to timely introduce new products,
Trident's success in implementing planned initiatives, the failure to obtain
design wins among major OEMs for Trident products, competitive pressures,
including pricing and competitors' new product introductions, and the outcome of
pending litigation. Additional factors that may affect the Company's business
are described in detail in the Company's filings with the Securities and
Exchange Commission.
Background
Trident Microsystems, Inc., with headquarters in Sunnyvale, California, designs,
develops and markets graphics and multimedia integrated circuits for PCs.
Trident's products are sold through a network of OEMs, original design
manufacturers and system integrators worldwide. For further information about
Trident and its products please consult our web site:
http://www.tridentmicro.com .
NOTE: Trident is a registered trademark of Trident Microsystems, Inc. CyberBlade
i7, CyberBlade i1, CBXP, KB2.5, CyberALADDiN, CyberMAGiK, DPTV are trademarks of
Trident Microsystems, Inc. All other trademarks used herein are the property of
their respective owners.
Trident Microsystems, Inc.
Consolidated Balance Sheet
June 30, March 31, June 30,
(in thousands) 2001 2001 2000
ASSETS
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $26,677 $23,743 $39,041
Short-term investment - UMC 52,708 64,088 110,665
Short-term investments - other 791 719 --
Accounts receivable, net 9,247 8,350 6,092
Inventories 10,669 11,960 3,376
Deferred tax assets 1,656 -- --
Prepaid expenses and other
assets 2,981 1,814 2,222
Total current assets 104,729 110,674 161,396
Property and equipment, net 3,559 3,556 3,901
Long-term investment - UMC 26,005 26,005 48,049
Long-term investments - others 11,996 11,987 8,096
Other assets 1,130 850 934
Total assets $147,419 $153,072 $222,376
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current liabilities
Accounts payable $11,829 $11,181 $7,324
Accrued expenses and other
liabilities 13,169 12,084 12,531
Deferred tax liability current -- 8,239 24,734
Income taxes payable 1,040 -- 1,596
Total current liabilities 26,038 31,504 46,185
Deferred income taxes
non-current 14,947 11,392 18,928
Other long-term liabilities -- 19 46
Minority interest in
subsidiary 1,068 873 1,256
Total liabilities 42,053 43,788 66,415
Stockholders' equity
Capital stock 55,106 54,578 52,254
Retained earnings 74,996 72,658 118,636
Accumulated other
comprehensive loss
- investment in UMC (6,827) -- (4,648)
Accumulated other
comprehensive loss
- other investments 43 -- --
Treasury stock, at cost (17,952) (17,952) (10,281)
Total stockholders'
equity 105,366 109,284 155,961
Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity $147,419 $153,072 $222,376
Trident Microsystems, Inc.
Consolidated Statement of Operations
Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
June 30, March 31, June 30, June 30, June 30,
(in thousands, 2001 2001 2000 2001 2000
except per share
data, unaudited)
Net sales $32,392 $24,724 $26,649 $118,959 $117,682
Royalty and
license revenue -- -- 5,000 9,267 5,000
Total revenue 32,392 24,724 31,649 128,226 122,682
Cost of sales 23,024 19,714 19,189 89,346 82,434
Gross profit 9,368 5,010 12,460 38,880 40,248
% to total revenue 28.9% 20.3% 39.4% 30.3% 32.8%
Research and
development
expenses 4,788 3,701 7,595 20,031 27,555
% to total
revenue 14.8% 15.0% 24.0% 15.6% 22.5%
Selling, general and
administrative
expenses 4,117 4,521 4,641 16,455 16,899
% to total
revenue 12.7% 18.3% 14.7% 12.8% 13.8%
Income (loss) from
operations 463 (3,212) 224 2,394 (4,206)
% to total revenue 1.4% (13.0)% 0.7% 1.9% (3.4)%
Gain (loss) on
investments -- (77,808) -- (77,808) 114,984
Interest and other
income, net 256 610 367 1,712 2,046
Income (loss) before
provision for income
taxes 719 (80,410) 591 (73,702) 112,824
% to total revenue 2.2% (325.2)% 1.9% (57.5)% 92.0%
Provision (benefit)
for income taxes (1,648) (29,764) (1,355) (30,062) 44,717
% to total revenue (5.1)% (120.4)% (4.3)% (23.4)% 36.4%
Net income (loss) $2,367 $(50,646) $1,946 $(43,640) $68,107
% to total revenue 7.3% (204.8)% 6.1% (34.0)% 55.5%
Basic earnings (loss)
per share $0.18 $(3.87) $0.14 $(3.33) $5.07
Common shares used in
computing basic per
share amounts 13,181 13,081 13,531 13,087 13,423
Diluted earnings
(loss) per share $0.17 $(3.87) $0.13 $(3.33) $4.43
Common and common
equivalent shares
used in computing
diluted per share
amounts 13,605 13,081 15,110 13,087 15,360
Pro forma net income
(loss) 2,367 (3,961) 1,946 3,045 (883)
Pro forma EPS $0.17 $(0.30) $0.13 $0.22 $(0.07)
MAKE YOUR OPINION COUNT - Click Here
http://tbutton.prnewswire.com/prn/11690X17683736
SOURCE Trident Microsystems, Inc.
CONTACT: Gale Nix of Trident Microsystems, Inc., +1-408-991-8800, or
fax. +1-408-733-1438, or gnix@tridentmicro.com
URL: http://www.tridentmicro.com
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 21, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
07/20/01 07/13/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,210.85 1,215.68 -.40%
Dow Jones 10,576.65 10,539.06 +.36%
NASD Comp 2,029.37 2,084.79 -2.66%
Russell 2000 487.93 490.71 -.57%
SOX Index 574.30 593.93 -3.31%
Value Line 387.38 390.43 -.78%
MS Growth 546.30 530.56 +2.97%
MS Cyclical 571.18 563.74 +1.32%
T - Bill 3.44% 3.52% -8 BP
Long Bond 5.53% 5.63% -10 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $270.20 $267.60 +$2.60
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.24 $4.31 -$.07
Economic News:
==============
Economic Data Last Week Not Great - But Not Bad Either
Media, In Our Opinion, Distorted Greenspan's Testimony
Recovery This Year, And Accelerating In 2002, Best Bet
*May Business Inventories unchanged - May Sales rose +1.1%
Inventory/Sales Ratio drops to 1.42 months
*Industrial Production in June fell -.7% - But May Revised
Upward to -.5% from -.8%
*June Capacity Utilization fell to 77.0% from revised 77.6%
*June Housing Starts rose +3.0% to 1.66 mil annualized rate
*June Housing Permits fell -3.3% to 1.57 mil annualized rate
*Consumer Prices rose +.2% in June - But Core Index,
Excluding Volatile Food & Energy, rose +.3%
*Chairman Greenspan's Congressional Testimony - See Below
*Jobless Claims fell -35,000 to 414,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +2,500 to 414,500
*May International Trade Deficit falls to $28.3 bil -
Lowest in sixteen months
*Leading Indicators rose +.3% to 109.6 - See Below
*Philadelphia FRB Index eased to -3.7 in June from -12.2
But New Orders subcomponent improved modestly
Warren Buffett has often been quoted as saying that if
you are digging yourself into a hole, the first thing
you should do is - stop digging. The saying applies to the
economy, in that for it to recover, it must first stop
declining. And, for a while now, we have been of the opinion
that the economy was "bouncing along the bottom", and that a
recovery was very likely late in the second half. In Buffett's
analogy, the economy has stopped digging itself further into
a hole, a precursor of a recovery. And, the data support this
interpretation.
For instance, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators advanced
in June, the third consecutive monthly advance. This is likely
a trend, and importantly signals the beginning of an economic
recovery late this year, right on schedule given the normal six
month lag of this index. And, while the index has likely captured
the impact of monetary stimulus, it probably has not been able
to capture the near term fiscal stimulus of tax refund checks.
And the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) made it obvious last week.
As I am sure you all noted, the IRS mailed a letter that told you
that your refund check was in the works, and the amount of your
refund - very clever politics, but also not bad economics. The
point I want to make is that the "political" angle, even if you
don't receive your check until late September, helps to uphold
consumer confidence, as you have been told it is coming. And,
once you get it, you feel better all over again. Good politics,
and good economics as the Administration will get maximum fiscal
stimulus from the one/two approach.
While Chairman Greenspan noted the positive impact of the fiscal
stimulus in his semi-annual Congressional testimony, the media
"played it" quite negatively - at least in my opinion. Not only
do I not think his remarks were that negative, I think that all
the media missed the important point. And one that longer term
subscribers know that we have been focusing on.
Specifically, we have noted that we think the Federal Reserve
Open Market Committee (FOMC) is making a big bet on the
magnitude of the bounce back in productivity growth as the
economy recovers. In Chairman Greenspan's testimony, he
referenced "structural productivity" many, many times, and
acknowledged the inflationary threat. His focus is not so much
on the core price indexes as on the personal consumption index
from the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report regarding
inflation, and he still thinks there isn't a problem.
But, he is counting on a very big increase in productivity growth,
and we, simply put, are not quite as convinced as Chairman
Greenspan that productivity will bounce back as much as necessary
to prevent the build up of inflationary pressures. After all,
there is a huge economic difference between productivity growth of
2% or 3%. It may not seem like much, but it is a 50% difference.
Net bottom line - our views haven't changed. We still believe
the economy will recover, beginning later this year, and that
economic growth will accelerate toward 3% in 2002. So far, so
good. Our concern, though, is that inflationary threats may build
as well, and it is on this issue where we disagree with Chairman
Greenspan.
I sincerely hope that my concerns are unfounded, and that Chairman
Greenspan is right. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Wednesday: Existing Home Sales
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Q2 Employment Cost Index, Durable Goods Orders
Friday: Q2 Advance GDP, New Home Sales
TRPH? A bounce or buy-out coming?
DD
¶ BESC: a 10Q worth reading,...
as its Technology could become extremely popular in the next 5 years...
http://www.alertwizard.com/display.php?link=1752674
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 14, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
07/13/01 07/06/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,215.68 1,190.59 +2.11%
Dow Jones 10,539.06 10,252.68 +2.79%
NASD Comp 2,084.79 2,004.16 +4.02%
Russell 2000 490.71 483.26 +1.54%
SOX Index 593.93 566.51 +4.84%
Value Line 390.43 385.27 +1.34%
MS Growth 530.56 530.66 -.02%
MS Cyclical 563.74 536.67 +5.04%
T - Bill 3.52% 3.52% UNCH
Long Bond 5.63% 5.75% -12 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $267.60 $266.60 +$1.00
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.31 $4.27 +$.04
Economic News:
==============
Nothing Too Surprising Last Week - Lots Of Noise In The Data
Job Outlook Not As Grim As Claims Data - No Price Pressures
Soft Landing And Second Half Recovery Still Best Bet
*May Consumer Credit rose $6.5 billion - +4.9% rate
*Wholesale Inventories rose +.2% in May - Sales fell -.1%
*Richmond FRB Shipments index unchanged in June at -20
*Jobless Claims rose +42,000 to 445,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +2,500 to 410,750 - See Below
*Producer Price Index fell -.4% in June - Core Index -
Excluding Volatile Food & Energy, rose +.1%
*June Retail Sales rose only +.2% - Ex Autos fell -.2%
May revised upward to +.4% from +.1%
*Univ. of Michigan Mid-July Sentiment 93.7 - Trend Intact
Although the stock market was very volatile last week,
reacting to second quarter preannouncements, the more
important concern should be forward looking. The rationale
is simply that the stock market is a discounting mechanism,
and what counts, or should count, is the outlook for later
this year and into 2002. And none of last week's reports
would cause us to alter our outlook for a soft landing
and an accelerating economic growth rate toward year end.
Last week's worst report was clearly Jobless Claims, but
there was a lot of noise in the data. For instance, the
auto industry was closing plants for their traditional
summer shutdown, and it is hard, if not impossible to adjust
for this specific event. However, the largest increase
was from the State of Michigan, so the jump in claims
clearly was impacted by the auto industry shutdown. We
just don't know the magnitude, but it would appear to
be meaningful.
The Retail Sales report also was a little "sloppy" -
at least on the surface. A gain of +.2% is hardly robust,
but the revision to May was quite large, and if the numbers
are smoothed, sales were "ok" - but not great.
Supporting that assertion was anecdotal evidence from many
retailers. Specifically, as reported by the Wall Street
Journal, the " ... Goldman Sachs Retail Sales Index of 39
stores, weighted by sales, rose 2.0% in June, beating a
1.4% forecast." For May the same index rose just .7%.
But, again, the devil is in the details.
As noted, the index is weighted by sales, with, surprise
surprise, Wal-Mart being the heavy hitter - and Wal-Mart
had a great June as comparable store sales rose +6.9%. In
general, department stores did not fare as well, so the
inference is that basic needs buying was maintained, but
that more discretionary purchases were soft. Overall,
the all important consumer sector appears alive, and well,
but just not kicking in high gear.
However, as regular readers know, we have long believed that
the tax rebate checks will be spent, and they will begin
arriving soon - depending upon social security number.
And, the last of the checks won't be mailed out until the
end of September. So, the spending impact should be spread
out for the remainder of the third quarter.
While I don't want to try to "spin" this too closely, the
timing does appear important as retailers generally gear
up for Christmas based upon their most recent sales
experience - in this case back-to-school and early fall.
So, the added impetus from the tax rebates could have a
secondary, and positive, impact.
In any case, the normal lagged response to monetary policy
should begin, which combined with fiscal stimulus, should be
sufficient to assure the soft landing, and the beginning
of recovery later this year. By early 2002, with any luck
at all, the growth rate should have recovered to just below
non-inflationary trendline rates - or approximately 3.0%.
That may not be enough to meet expectations of those making
big bets on cyclical names, but it should preserve a
favorable backdrop for financial asset prices. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Business Inventories
Tuesday: Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts/Permits
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, International Trade
¶ ADVC: Advanced Communications Technologies -- SpectruCell 3G Multiple Protocol SDR Base Station/Switch Update and Commercial Release
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 11, 2001--Advanced
Communications Technologies Inc (OTCBB:ADVC) (ACT-US) today announced
that the company is on track to deliver its SpectruCell software
defined radio mobile wireless base station in first quarter of 2002
and that the company expected to generate initial revenues from the
SpectruCell technology in late 2001.
The company's development efforts have recently received a major
boost from the formation of an alliance between its Australian based
research and development operations and RLM Systems Pty Ltd (RLM), a
joint venture subsidiary company jointly owned by Lockheed Martin
(NYSE:LMT) and Tenix Australia Pty Ltd.
RLM's high level skill set and experience in building out complex
projects provides the ideal complement to ACT's world leading
innovation in software defined radio and communications technologies.
This powerful combination of leading edge technical resources is
expected to provide the company with a significant reduction of the
SpectruCell project lead times and is expected to ensure that ACT has
the first third generation (3G) ready software defined mobile wireless
base station in the market at the end of the first quarter of 2002.
In addition to its commercial applications, ACT is also
negotiating initial development of military applications for
SpectruCell. This augurs exceptionally well for the company's U.S.
operations where military spending on communications in calendar year
2000 alone was in excess of $US16 billion.
ACT is also making significant in-roads towards initial sales of
the SpectruCell technology with the upcoming release of the company's
software defined radio development tools and development suite.
Designed to allow third parties to develop applications for the
SpectruCell software defined radio platform, the suite is receiving
substantial interest from communications developers of 3G applications
who are keen to obtain access to a highly flexible 3G application
development platform that is capable of being easily modified via
software upgrades to the comply with any evolving predominant 3G
protocol. Such flexibility is not currently available in presently
available hardware specific 3G development platforms. The first of the
3G development platform technologies within this suite, an analogue to
digital converter board, will be available to developers from early
August 2001.
The company is also pursuing orders for the SpectruCell base
station unit from major U.S. and UK/European based carriers.
Negotiations to date have centered around two major network providers
in the U.S. mobile market with the company now looking to firm up an
order for delivery in early 2002.
SpectruCell -- Virtual /Shared Network Facilities
Perhaps most importantly, SpectruCell's architecture allows it to
act as a Virtual Network Operator (VNO). This feature is particularly
relevant as many network operators around the world are now looking to
share network infrastructure in order to reduce the network roll out
costs associated with supporting 3G services. The use of SpectruCell's
VNO capabilities essentially means that a network operator can provide
network support for other carriers on the one network infrastructure
regardless of whether those providers are using different protocols or
spectrum. This provides an exceptional level of network functionality
and generates significant time and cost savings.
The exceptional flexibility of the SpectruCell base station has
generated significant interest from carriers who are looking for
solutions to help them deal with difficulties arising from both
spectrum shortages and the myriad of communications standards that
prevail in the U.S. and U.K. mobile communications market.
Protection of the company's significant intellectual property is
naturally paramount and to this end the company is ensuring that its
research and development operations file a steady stream of patent
applications. To date these filings have centered around innovative
technologies ranging from methods for implementing communications
protocols (GSM, CDMA, etc) on a software defined radio platform to the
core design of a software radio platform itself. A key patent filing
has recently been delayed due to the complexity of the claim, however
the company expects to make additional filings in the next seven days.
Full details will be announced upon lodgment of the respective claims.
About Advanced Communications Technologies
Advanced Communications Technologies, in conjunction with its
Australian based affiliate ACT (Australia) Pty Ltd, is a leader in the
field of Software Defined Radio and has developed a proprietary,
multiple-protocol wireless base station -- SpectruCell. Through
eliminating the use of Qualcomm (Nasdaq:QCOM) chipsets and protocol
specific hardware, and by conducting all signal processing in
software, SpectruCell provides for simultaneous support of multiple
mobile communications protocols (CDMA, WCDMA, UMTS, GSM & 3G) all in
the same base station. Support for additional protocols is achieved
through the uploading of additional software modules.
By implementing the company's SpectruCell technology, network
providers will be able to maintain service to their existing customer
base and preserve the full utilization of their existing network
infrastructure while at the same time securing a highly flexible
migration path for evolving 3G-based protocols such as WCDMA and UMTS.
SpectruCell is complemented by several other wireless technologies
currently under development in Australia. Advanced Communication
Technologies plans to market these products throughout North, South
and Central America. For more information regarding Advanced
Communications Technologies, visit www.act-usa.net.
About RLM Systems Pty Ltd
RLM is an equal joint venture between Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT)
and Tenix Australia Pty Ltd that has significant experience in complex
engineering tasks such as the Jindalee operational radar network.
RLM specializes in the design, production, integration, test and
support of large, complex, state-of-the-art, software intensive
systems. Employing approximately 600 people, the company is based in
Melbourne, Australia and has operations in several States. Founded on
a skilled and proven workforce, and with the backing of two major
technology and defense partners, RLM is the new high technology force
in the region.
The foregoing contains forward-looking information within the
meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995. Such
forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties.
The actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking
statements. The company does not undertake to publicly update or
revise its forward-looking statements even if experience or future
changes make it clear that any projected results (expressed or
implied) will not be realized.
--30--KT/np*
CONTACT: Advanced Communications Technologies Inc.
Roger May, 61 3 9672 8888 or 61 411 189 931 (Chairman)
roger.may@act-aus.net
or
Jason Webster, 61 2 9327-2579 or 61 403 199 811
(Manager-Corporate Communication)
jason.webster@act-aus.net
¶ THTH: Thinkpath, Inc. Announces Investment Opinion: KSH Investment Group Reiterates ``Buy'' Rating On Thinkpath With a Six Month Price Target of $3.00
NOTE TO EDITORS: The following is an investment opinion issued
by Thinkpath, Inc.
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 10, 2001--KSH Investment Group,
Inc. has reiterated its "BUY" rating on Thinkpath, Inc. (Nasdaq:THTH)
in a 20-page report just released on the company.
In his report, analyst Leonard Bogner stated, "Thinkpath's
financial outlook is extremely favorable and key markets are growing.
We see revenues expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
25% during the next five years while net income climbs at CAGR of 50%.
Based on our projections, we believe Thinkpath could be generating
revenues of $75 million and earnings of $6 million, or $0.35 per fully
diluted share, by 2003 and could have sales of approximately $125
million by mid-decade and net earnings of $15 million, or $0.85 per
fully diluted share."
"In light of the company's positive prospects and, in our view,
under-appreciated value, we rate the stock a `BUY'. Based on our
valuation benchmarks, we believe THTH's shares could be trading at
$3.00-$3.25 by the end of 2001 and reach $4.00-$5.00 during 2002."
About Thinkpath Inc.
--------------------
Thinkpath is a provider of IT & engineering services, offering a
blended suite of outsourcing, recruiting, training and technology to
enhance the resource performance of large and high-growth
corporations. Thinkpath clients include Microsoft, General Motors,
Goldman Sachs, General Electric, Cummins and EDS Canada. Thinkpath has
500 employees in 18 offices across North America. Further information
about the company, its services and products can be found at
www.thinkpath.com.
This press release contains certain forward-looking statements
regarding Thinkpath Inc., its business prospects and results of
operations that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties posed
by many factors and events that could cause Thinkpath's actual
business, prospects and results of operations to differ materially
from those that may be anticipated by such forward-looking statements.
Readers are urged to carefully review and consider the various
disclosures made by Thinkpath in this news release and other reports
filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that attempt to
advise interested parties of the risks and factors that may affect
Thinkpath's business.
Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable
for all investors. This memorandum is for informational purposes only.
Under no circumstances is it to be interpreted as an offer to buy, or
a solicitation to sell any security. While the information contained
herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its
accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Although opinions and
estimates expressed herein reflect the current judgment of KSH, the
information upon which such opinions and estimates are based is not
necessarily updated on a regular basis; when it is, the date of the
change in estimate will be noted. In addition, opinions and estimates
are subject to change without notice. This Report contains
forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties.
Actual results may differ significantly from the results described in
the forward-looking statements. KSH Investment Group, Inc. may at
times, effect transactions, including transactions contrary to any
recommendations herein, or have positions in the securities mentioned
herein (or options or warrants with respect thereto) and may also have
performed investment banking services for the issuers of such
securities. In addition, employees or officers of KSH Investment
Group, Inc. may have positions and effect transactions in the
securities, options, or warrants of the issuers mentioned herein and
may serve as directors of such issuers.
--30--jsw/clv*
CONTACT: The Del Mar Consulting Group, Inc.
Robert B. Prag, 858/794-9500
bprag@delmarconsulting.com
or
KSH Investment Group, 516/466-1117
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: July 7, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
07/06/01 06/29/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,190.59 1,225.47 -2.85%
Dow Jones 10,252.68 10,497.76 -2.34%
NASD Comp 2,004.16 2,169.31 -7.61%
Russell 2000 483.26 510.68 -5.37%
SOX Index 566.51 624.75 -9.32%
Value Line 385.27 399.13 -3.47%
MS Growth 530.66 536.92 -1.17%
MS Cyclical 536.67 543.93 -1.34%
T - Bill 3.52% 3.56% -4 BP
Long Bond 5.75% 5.74% +1 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $266.60 $271.30 -$4.70
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.27 $4.33 -$.06
Economic News:
==============
Last Week's Reports Quite Good - Beneath The Headlines
Manufacturing Sector Stabilizing - Prices Not Accelerating
No Change In Our Outlook - Second Half Recovery Very Likely
*Personal Spending rose +.5% in May
*Personal Income up +.2% - Prior month's Spending
Revised up - Income revised down - both by .01%
*May Construction Spending rose +.3%
*Nat'l Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index for June 44.7
Modest improvement from May's 42.1 - See Below
*May Factory Orders up +2.5% - Solid Gain And Best
Increase since June 2000
*Jobless Claims rose +7,000 to 399,000 - Four Week
Moving Average fell -9,500 to 407,500
*June Labor Department Report
- Unemployment rate increased +.1% to 4.5%
- Nonfarm Payrolls fell 114,000
- Average Hourly Earnings rose +$.04/hr to $14.26
- Average Workweek unchanged at 34.3 hours
Obviously we had liked the prior week's reports, and we also
liked last week's data. On the surface, most of the reports
were pretty good, but in the details some were even better.
The very clear implication is that the manufacturing
sector is stabilizing, and even improving a bit, but off
a very sharp slowdown. We remain convinced that the worst
is behind us for both the economy and the stock market.
The most important report, Friday's Labor Department
Report on the Employment Situation for June, was actually
quite good, although the media headlines implied otherwise.
First, the unemployment rate only ticked up +.01%, less than
expected. And, from our viewpoint, there was no acceleration
in the year-over-year rate of change in average hourly
earnings. Still higher than we'd like at +4.2%, but a modest
drop from last month's +4.3%.
As is often the case, there was important information in the
revisions. For instance, May nonfarm payrolls were first
reported as a decline of -19,000. The first revision now
is for a gain of +8,000. For April the revisions were
huge - from an initial decline of -223,000 to a first revision
of a decline of -182,000 to a final decline of -165,000.
In other words, as initial estimates are replaced by solid
data, the labor market is not as bad as it appears.
The other important report, which was hardly noticed, was
a subindex of the National Purchasing Managers' Index - Orders.
For those of you that are not familiar with this type of index,
it is known as a diffusion index, where levels above 50.0
imply expansion, and levels below 50.0, contraction. For May,
the Orders subindex was 45.5. But for June Orders improved to
48.6. Clearly 48.6 is not far from 50.0, and supports the
improvement in Factory Orders for May.
Simply put, the technology sector notwithstanding, it appears
that order trends are improving in the manufacturing sector.
Granted, they are improving from reduced levels, but the point
is that they are no longer deteriorating, and that is good news,
and clearly a necessary condition for growth to resume.
And finally, both the official economic reports and trade
industry reports from the auto industry indicate that consumer
spending is being maintained at a healthy rate. The official
report of a +.5% gain for May, and an upward revision to the
April gain, were positive for second quarter growth. And, for
June the auto industry is reporting excellent sales that
annualize at a 17 million rate, and keep the industry on
track for their third or fourth best year ever. Clearly
strong auto sales are a positive not only for consumer spending,
but for the manufacturing sector as well.
Net bottom line, the economy appears to be very much on track
for the second half recovery we have been projecting for quite
some time. Our hope is that price pressures won't build as
the recovery takes hold, but at the moment we are much more
confident about the latter than the former. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Consumer Credit
Tuesday: Wholesale Trade
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Producer Price Index, Retail Sales
¶*** Talks Get China Near Entry Into WTO...
Agreement Reached On Crop Subsidies
By Naomi Koppel Associated Press Thursday, July 5, 2001...
GENEVA, July 4 -- After 15 years of knocking at the door of the World Trade Organization, China is finally on the verge of entering the global trade forum.
Officials said today that after six days of talks at WTO headquarters, just about every aspect of terms of membership was settled, clearing the way for China to join the Geneva-based body soon.
"This meeting has resulted in a major breakthrough in all the issues regarding China's accession," said Pierre-Louis Girard, the Swiss diplomat chairing the talks.
"As a result of this development I think we can with some confidence envisage a wrapping up of this process, which has lasted now for 15 years, in what I hope will be the very near future," he said.
Chinese chief negotiator Long Yongtu said he would stay in Geneva until the next round of talks, scheduled the week of July 16, to speed things along.
The hope is that China's entry into the WTO can be officially endorsed at November's ministerial meeting in Doha, Qatar, to add gloss to what are otherwise likely to be tricky discussions on whether to launch a new round of trade talks following the collapse of the Seattle conference in 1999.
Under this scenario, China would become a full member early next year.
"After going through this long negotiation process we know it is still not time for celebration, and there is still a lot of work before us," said Long.
However, Girard listed a series of areas where agreement had been reached, including patents and other intellectual property rights; subsidies; agriculture and anti-dumping measures.
One of the outstanding arguments over agriculture was apparently resolved today, relating to concern felt by developing countries about a U.S.-Chinese deal on agricultural subsidies.
Under WTO rules, developing countries have the right to subsidize 10 percent of agricultural output, but Washington refused to accept that figure for China, saying it was not a developing country. The two nations finally agreed on 8.5 percent.
India, South Korea and Malaysia were concerned that this may set a precedent, and might even prompt the United States to demand stricter subsidy terms for developing countries in the future.
They therefore insisted that the final WTO agreement must contain a sentence stating that the U.S.-China bilateral deal does not set a precedent. Washington rejected this.
Girard refused to elaborate on the nature of the compromise. But he said that the wording of the WTO text would make it clear that the agricultural subsidy commitments "are solely those of China and will not prejudice developing countries' existing rights or future negotiations."
The biggest remaining problem to finalizing the Chinese terms of entry appeared to be over what constitutes a "branch" of a company -- an issue linked to U.S. insurance giant American International Group Inc.
Under the membership agreement, new companies entering the life insurance market in China must have 50 percent Chinese ownership.
AIG claims that it is exempt from this because it is already doing business in China. But it is not clear whether a new AIG office would be a branch of the head office or would constitute a new company -- in which case the 50 percent ownership rule would apply.
The issue has caused strife between the United States and the European Union, which insists that the same rules must apply to all insurance companies. EU companies operating in China are joint ventures, with a high level of Chinese ownership.
Beyond the WTO-wide talks, China is still trying to settle a bilateral deal with Mexico. That also may hold up the process as other nations wait to see the details of the Mexican agreement.
Other countries waiting to join the 141-nation WTO include Russia, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.
***IFTA Up about 90% in only 2 days... FG
¶*** New Developments in China.....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6637-2001Jul1.html
China Allows Its Capitalists To Join Party
Communists Recognize Rise of Private Business
BEIJING, July 1 -- President Jiang Zemin announced today that the Communist Party would accept private businessmen as members, a policy reversal that recognizes the increasingly powerful role of entrepreneurs in determining China's future.
Jiang, who is also the Communists' leader, made the announcement in the Great Hall of the People during a speech marking the party's 80th anniversary. It was a surprise ending to a two-month-long propaganda campaign designed to illustrate the superiority of China's socialist system.
The party estimates that 113,000 members already run businesses, most started after they joined the party, so Jiang's announcement was in part a reflection of reality. But it marked another ideological shift for an organization desperately trying to remain relevant in a country buffeted by economic and social changes. Earlier this year, the government allowed private Chinese firms better access to capital on China's stock markets -- presaging a fundamental transition in China's economy from a state-owned system to a privatized one.
Chinese analysts said the announcement was another attempt by the party to broaden its base at a time when its policies have become irrelevant to large sections of society. China's economic reforms, and its 23 years of openness, have unleashed new forces and created economic classes and special interest groups the party finds difficult to control.
Allowing entrepreneurs to enter the party has been the most hotly debated topic in party circles in the past year, a senior party theoretician said, speaking on condition of anonymity. China killed, jailed or exiled most of its capitalists after the 1949 revolution, but entrepreneurship began a comeback when private businesses were allowed again after the country opened to the West in 1978. Following the crackdown on student-led democracy protests in June 1989, the party, then run by hard-line ideologues, banned entrepreneurs from joining.
Lin Yanzhi, the deputy party secretary in Jilin province and the son of a prominent party official, recently predicted that if "capitalists" were allowed to join, China would "enter a long period of social unrest and economic recession." Another official wrote an essay in "Searching After Truth," a conservative Chinese publication, titled "Capitalists in the Communist Party? You've got to be kidding."
Today's announcement was a personally significant turning point for Jiang, 74, who was appointed party leader shortly before Communist Party Order No. 9 was issued on Aug. 28, 1989, banning private businessmen. Jiang told a party gathering at the time: "If we let people who aren't willing to give up exploitation, and who depend on exploitation for their livelihood, to join the party, what kind of a party would we be building?"
Today, Jiang was more welcoming of private businessmen, whose firms account for more than 20 percent of China's $1 trillion gross domestic product and who employ millions of workers fired from moribund state-owned companies. "They are also working for building socialism with Chinese characteristics," he said.
Jiang stressed that the party would still be based on "workers, farmers, intellectuals, servicemen and cadres." However, he added, "It is also necessary to accept those outstanding elements from other sectors of the society."
Jiang's announcement is part of a reform package for the 64.5 million-member party, which started in 1921 as a workers' party, then became a peasants' party and won a guerrilla war, and is now struggling to remain current. The reform package argues that the party should represent the interests of all of Chinese society, not just the working class. The party theoretician said the package will encourage hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of party members to resign to make way for new blood.
The announcement, coupled with a recent party report about a breakdown in social order and a party campaign to clamp down on China's media, illustrates that China's Communist Party is arguably facing its biggest test since it won a civil war against Nationalist troops and established the People's Republic of China in 1949.
A report issued in May by a Central Committee research group spoke of "tense" relations between the party and the people, and painted a far less triumphant picture than the one depicted in the two-month-long pep talk that has dominated China's state-run media.
The report spoke about the collapse of state-owned industry, a social safety net incapable of dealing with millions of unemployed, strained relations with China's ethnic minorities, a restive peasantry and an unjust legal system.
To quash debate about these issues, Jiang recently ordered a crackdown on state-run media. Several papers have been closed, and senior editors have been fired or shuffled at Southern Weekend, China's most courageous weekly.
And in today's speech, Jiang, wearing a suit and tie against a backdrop of an enormous hammer and sickle, called on party members to "resolutely resist the influence of the Western multiparty system."
Regardless, the party's attempts to manage China's transition away from socialism seem increasingly ineffectual.
China's economy is undergoing a historic shift from one controlled by state-owned firms to one that last year owed more than half of its gross domestic product to non-state companies. About 20 percent of China's GDP last year came from its 1.2 million purely private firms. That shift will accelerate once China joins the World Trade Organization -- possibly by the end of this year -- and faces the biggest outside challenge to its economy since Westerners opened China's markets in the 1840s with the First Opium War.
Chinese society is also more pluralistic than it has been since the 1949 revolution, with access to the Internet and foreign ideas growing exponentially.
The party's influence on people's lives has been shrinking rapidly, first with the collapse of rural communes in the 1980s, when land was returned to farmers, and then with the demise of urban work units, when thousands of state-owned firms went bankrupt or ceased functioning because they could no longer compete.
Corruption has turned such cities as Shenyang, in northeastern China, into fiefdoms for organized crime. Tens of thousands of police officers and soldiers have been used to suppress Falun Gong, the banned Buddhist-like spiritual movement, and other religions at the expense of rising crime.
According to the senior party theoretician, businessmen were banned from entering the Communist Party in 1989 because party ideologues felt that the heads of private companies were "exploiters" and that their employees, no matter how well paid, were being exploited. Most of China's private businessmen at the time came from what party leaders considered bad backgrounds -- jail, political dissent, the margins of society. And private businessmen in Beijing played a major role in the latter stages of the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations, organizing a group of motorcycle-riding entrepreneurs who informed student and independent labor union leaders centered on the square about military maneuvers around Beijing.
"The party hated these people, so it decided to punish them," the theoretician said. "Now, however, private businessmen have changed. They include former government workers, members of the working class, managers of state-owned factories, demobilized soldiers, returnees from the United States."
© 2001 The Washington Post Company
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: June 30, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
06/29/01 06/22/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,225.47 1,225.35 UNCH
Dow Jones 10,497.76 10,604.59 -1.01%
NASD Comp 2,169.31 2,034.82 +6.61%
Russell 2000 510.68 488.65 +4.51%
SOX Index 624.75 586.31 +6.56%
Value Line 399.13 386.35 +3.31%
MS Growth 536.92 545.49 -1.57%
MS Cyclical 543.93 541.26 +.49%
T - Bill 3.56% 3.36% +20 BP
Long Bond 5.74% 5.58% +16 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $271.30 $273.30 -$2.00
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.33 $4.30 +$.03
Economic News:
==============
Last Week's Reports Couldn't Have Been Much Better
FOMC Lowers Rates, All Indicators Imply Improvement
No Change In Our Forecast - But We Now Have Some Support
*Existing Home Sales rose +2.9% in May to 5.37 mil annual rate
April also revised upward to 5.22 million annualized rate
*May Durable Goods Orders also rose +2.9% - Nice gain
Ex Volatile Transportation sector orders up a solid +2.7%
*May New Home Sales rose +.8% to 928,000
*June Consumer Confidence rose to 117.9 from 116.1 in May
But May was revised upward from 115.5 - Solid increase
*FOMC lowers rates by one quarter of one percent - Also
Leaves bias toward further ease in place - See below
*Jobless Claims fell -16,000 to 388,000 - Four Week
Moving Average eased -7,750 to 416,000
*1st Qtr GDP revised to +1.2% - Consumer Spending revised
Upward to +3.4% from +2.9% - Imports more of a drag
*Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 92.6 for June -
Further strength from mid month level of 91.6
*Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for June 44.4 - Nice
Improvement from May's 38.7 - Price Index eased to 51.0
Even President Truman would have liked last week's reports,
because for those of you that don't remember, he wanted a one
armed Economic Advisor so that he didn't get a response like -
"On the one hand ... and on the other hand." Last week's
reports were that good, and that consistent, even if the job
of an analyst is to point out options. In any case, the odds
of a second half recovery keep improving, and fortunately,
we do have some supporters on the FOMC (Federal Open Market
Committee) that are concerned about the potential build up
of inflationary pressure. A nice ending for the second quarter.
The "big news", of course, was that the FOMC lowered rates
by one quarter of one percent, and kept their bias toward
further ease in place. So far, so good, and about what we
had expected. But, the press release, in our opinion, was
somewhat inconsistent, and not what we expected, or for that
matter, hoped for. In our view, it sent the wrong message.
In simple terms, the press release was rather "gloomy" about
the continued risk to the downside. That view certainly
supports maintaining a bias toward ease, but if that was the
real concern, then why not lower rates one half point? By
lowering "only" (the percentage decrease is only slightly
less than the percentage change from 6.50% to 6.00%) one
quarter point when many market participants were expecting
a half point cut, the implication is that the easing policy
is coming to an end. But, then they missed, in my opinion,
the chance to say so, which would have provided some "relief"
to those expecting earnings to recover later this year.
My best guess for this anomaly is that there is increasing
dissension within the FOMC. The minutes from the May 15th
meeting note that Mr. Hoenig actually dissented from the
half point cut, preferring a one quarter point cut. And,
while some other members voted for the half point cut, they
too would have accepted a quarter point cut. As you know,
our view is that the outlook has improved since that vote,
so, assuming some FOMC members agree, then the "rationale"
for that press release is appeasement to avoid a full
scale uprising against Chairman Greenspan.
If we are remotely accurate, and if the data continues to
show even modest improvement, then the likely outcome from
the August meeting is removal of the bias, and no further
rate cuts. The key, of course, will be the degree of
improvement in the economic indicators, and so far, so good.
As noted above, consumer confidence has continued to firm.
Not widely reported, though, was that according to the
American Bankers Assn. only 2.99% of credit card accounts
were past due in the first quarter. That's an improvement from
the year ago level of 3.28%, and perhaps more importantly,
sequentially from the fourth quarter's 3.34%. So, given
positive balance sheet, confidence, and income trends, consumer
spending should hold up quite well, a view further supported
by the revision to first quarter GDP.
To add fuel to the fire, no pun intended, the price of gasoline
has declined since Memorial Day, and in fact the futures
market is at a seventeen month low. Clearly such a visible
price can only have a positive impact on consumer sentiment.
And, the speculation is that OPEC will leave production levels
unchanged near term, so the worst of the energy price spike
should be behind us.
For longer term subscribers, it will come as no surprise then,
that we are not altering our long held view of a second half
recovery continuing into 2002. Nor are we lessening our concern
about the potential for inflationary pressures to build. The
price index portion of the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Report
was positive, but only fragmentary information. Next Friday
the Labor Department Report will provide updated, and more
useful inputs.
But, in the meantime we were pleased that we now have some
support for our view at the FOMC. The first step in containing
a threat is realizing that there is one. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Personal Income/Spending, National Assn. of Purchasing Managers' Index, Construction Spending
Tuesday: Factory Orders
Wednesday: INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY - MARKETS CLOSED
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Labor Department Employment Report
¶ BESC: BestNet Communications Announces 123phoneme Call-in Service
TUCSON, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 28, 2001--BestNet
Communications Corp. (OTCBB:BESC) announced today an agreement with
Global Technologies of St. Denis La Plaine, France that will provide
Global with the ability to sell web-initiated calling features to
Global's customer base of 1000 technology solution providers in 10
countries. When used as a customer service tool, BestNet's
web-initiated calling allows a web site visitor to click a phone icon
on a web page, specify a telephone and immediately be connected to a
customer service representative via telephone, using the public
telephone network.
The 123phoneme service provides the equivalent of an international
toll-free number at a substantial savings and adds valuable customer
service functionality to any web site.
"Companies can easily voice-enable their websites without any
requirement for extra hardware or software," said Maurice Brakha,
president and CEO of Global Technologies.
"123phoneme uses our existing technology to connect callers from
the web over the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN), and is part
of our product diversification strategy," said Kelvin Wilbore, vice
president of BestNet Communications, Corp.
123phoneme is now available and a demonstration is at
http://www.123phoneme.com.
About BestNet Communications Corp
As an Internet-enabled long distance service provider, BestNet
Communications combines access and control of the Internet with the
Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN). The Company provides
telephone and conference calling services using the web, desktop, and
handheld Internet devices. The patented Bestnetcall system provides
commercial quality, global access, low rates, real-time call detail
and billing and call management features. Bestnetcall is used by
customers in over 100 countries. For corporate information, visit the
website at http://www.bestnetcom.com.
About Global Technologies
Global Technologies is a leading European provider of technology
solutions, products and services. The company operates in over
10 countries with sales exceeding $10 million in 2000. Global
Technologies offer e-commerce solutions, e-crm solutions, e-telephony
solutions, logistics services, and technology product distribution to
more than 1000 technology solution providers. To speak with a company
representative, call Fabrice Boucobza, project manager at
331- 49 46 29 19, or meet her on http://www.123phoneme.com and try the
service.
This press release contains certain forward-looking statements
made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This information may involve risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or
contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, those
factors detailed by BestNet Communications Corp in its filings with
the Securities and Exchange Commission.
--30--cp/mi*
CONTACT: BestNet Communications Corp.
c/o Infinity Group, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Joseph M. Vazquez, 954/938-1919
Email: Jmv111@bellsouth.net
Worth a look...
This was taken from another board..
http://www.stopmmmanipulation.com/subcommittee.htm
BB, SEVU+44% @69 cents from the 20 cents range,...
is now really taking off with a short term target of $1.00...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=133400
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: June 23, 2001 by Bob Bose...
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
06/22/01 06/15/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,225.35 1,214.36 +.91%
Dow Jones 10,604.59 10,623.64 -.18%
NASD Comp 2,034.82 2,028.42 +.32%
Russell 2000 488.65 495.13 -1.31%
SOX Index 586.31 608.92 -3.71%
Value Line 386.35 391.26 -1.26%
MS Growth 545.49 548.30 -.51%
MS Cyclical 541.26 538.97 +.43%
T - Bill 3.36% 3.43% -7 BP
Long Bond 5.58% 5.67% -9 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $273.30 $272.30 +$1.00
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.30 $4.40 -$.10
Economic News:
==============
Last Week's Reports Very Consistent And Quite Positive
Nonetheless, FOMC Very Likely To Lower Rates Once More
No Surprise - We Still Believe Second Half Recovery Best Bet
*May Housing Starts eased -.4% to 1.62 miliion rate
April revised upward to +2.3% and 1.63 million rate
May Housing Permits rose +2.1% to 1.62 million rate
*Leading Indicators for May rose +.5% to 109.3 - Also
Coincident Index unchanged, Lagging Indicator eased -.2%
*Jobless Claims fell -34,000 to 400,000 - Four Week
Moving Average eased -2,750 to 422,500
*April Trade deficit down to $32.17 billion from upwardly
Revised March level of $33.08 billion
*Philadelphia FRB Index improves to -3.7 in June from -8.8
We liked last week's reports. First, the easing of May Housing
Starts was only an "easing" given the revision to the prior
report. And, while longer term readers know we are often quite
skeptical of this report in the winter months, by now the report
is much more accurate and indicates that housing activity is run-
ning at a very high level. In addition, permits are also at a
very solid annualized rate. The clear inference is not only
that the important housing sector is likely to stay healthy for
the foreseeable future, but there is the implied message that
consumer confidence has at least stabilized.
The other major forward looking report, leading indicators, was
also quite positive. The +.5% improvement was not only much
larger than consensus expectations, but it was broadly based.
In other words, there wasn't a large change in stock prices that
can sometimes have a distorting impact.
In addition, it was the second consecutive monthly gain, and the
third in the last six months to a level that is the highest in
six months. And, the coincident indicator was flat, which is
probably a fairly accurate depiction of second quarter economic
activity, and the lagging indicator continued to fall - but at a
low rate. So, the "numbers" were consistent internally, and are
very supportive of our view for a late second half economic
recovery - if not sooner.
But the real issue is not whether or not we liked the data, but
how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interprets it at
their upcoming two day meeting. Our suspicion is that they will
like the data as much as we do, but yet because they have backed
themselves into somewhat of a box, they will nonetheless cut
rates one more time - as an "insurance policy."
In our view, now that they have resurrected the "Greenspan Put",
no change in rates would be a major negative for stocks, and
therefore in their view on consumer spending through the "wealth
effect" - the connection between changes in net worth and the
impact on consumer spending. But, they would not want to raise
inflationary concerns either.
So, a pragmatic solution would be a change of only one quarter
point, leave the bias toward lower rates in place, and through
the press release "hint" that they will likely "step back" to
await the impact of prior rate cuts. If they lower rates one
quarter point, and remove the bias, a sensible move in our
opinion, they would be signaling that they are very likely
finished lowering rates for this cycle - and are at least mildly
concerned, as we are, that there is some, albeit currently modest,
inflationary risk given their prior aggressive policy actions.
One other point that should not be forgotten, is that the tax
refund checks will be mailed shortly. Clearly this fiscal
stimulus will be part of the FOMC's policy deliberations, and
would also argue for modest current moves, and a "wait and see"
attitude. And, as we are getting close to the end of the second
quarter, and by definition the end of corporate "confession
season", and the stock market has not been under the pressure it
was in the first quarter - the FOMC may have some room to be
less aggressive.
Our "economic preference" would actually be for no action at this
meeting, but maintain the bias - remember we, even if no one else
does, have some concerns that the FOMC has been too aggressive in
lowering rates. However, our "money manager" preference is for
a quarter point cut, leave the bias in place, but hint that a wait
and see approach is quite likely.
The least desirable action, in our opinion, would be a half point
cut, even assuming the bias would be removed. In our view,
furthering the aggressive policy to date is not necessary, and
unwise. The stock market might "pop" near term, but longer run,
in our view, the risks to financial asset prices would have risen
materially as inflationary pressure would be likely to build.
Root for a tortoise policy. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Monday: Existing Home Sales
Tuesday: New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting
Wednesday: FOMC Meeting Concludes - Announcement
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Q1 Final GDP, Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index
StockTalk, IFTP: 1 for 200 Reverse Split...
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010621/2542.html
Let's see what it does for the stock tomorrow... I think there were a lot of Insiders/Financiers selling and that the short position may not be as large as you or IFTP thinks...
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
***¶*** SeaView Teams with Unified Marine Inc....
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 21, 2001--George S.
Bernardich III, CEO of SeaView Video Technology, Inc. (OTCBB:SEVU)
(http://www.sevu.com) today announced that SeaView has entered a
teaming agreement with Unified Marine, Inc.
(http://www.unifiedmarine.com). Unified Marine, Inc. has 17 years of
experience in the manufacture and sales of marine and dive equipment,
selling through nearly 6,000 distributors and several internet
affiliates. The Naples, FL-based company also sells and services major
dealers for their own SeaSense Marine (http://www.seasense.com) and
Cayman Dive Gear branded products, sold at K-Mart, Lowe's, Auto-Zone
and Wal-Mart.
Unified Marine Inc. President Dave Nirenburg stated: "SeaView
products are a superb addition to our extensive marine and dive gear
line. We intend to market SeaView products in conjunction with the
launch of our new Cayman AquaSub(tm) personal underwater propulsion
vehicle. We will begin showing SeaView products starting with the
ICAST Annual Sportfishing Expo in Las Vegas in July." ICAST is the
industry's leading trade-to-trade exposition.
SeaView has joined with "the first ladies of fishing," Linda
England and Fredda Lee, accomplished anglers and online catalog
business operators (http://www.allprobass.com) to sell and feature
SeaView Marine products. SeaView has also begun a promotional and
marketing relationship with Henry Waszczuk, CFL Hall of Famer and
co-founder of Canadian Sportfishing. In addition to using SeaView
cameras in filming shows featured on Sunshine Network, TSN and OLN,
Henry will use our products in the launch of his all-new TV series,
"Fins and Skins Classic Adventures" (http://www.finsandskins.com).
Memphis-based FedEx Corporation leads a new wave of interest in
the SecureView "camera in a light bulb." FedEx has requested three
units for evaluation. Another initial-test order arrived from the
Tropicana Products, Inc. unit of PepsiCo, for evaluating SecureView in
facility surveillance. And in a follow-up move on an earlier test, SR
Communications Inc., security contractor for Cash America
International Inc., submitted an order for 12 additional SecureView
cameras. Accompanying the order was a bid request for pricing on 200
systems.
ABOUT SEAVIEW VIDEO TECHNOLOGY INC.
SeaView Video Technology, Inc. manufactures, distributes, and
sells marine, medical, and security-related video camera equipment.
They are the largest manufacturer of Infrared Underwater Camera
Systems. SecureView, the Company's innovative "camera in a light
bulb," incorporates proprietary IRFS (tm) technology to transmit live
video through the electrical wiring of any home, office, or building.
SecureView installs and sets up quickly and simply, eliminating
expensive installation costs, drilling and cables. SecureView DC(tm)
uses the same principles to transmit live video through the electrical
systems of vehicles, trucks, buses, ships, and railway rolling stock.
A version of IRFS capable of LAN/WAN data transmission over power
lines has also been introduced. The Company's marine and security
products are GSA listed. Its technology is covered under 14 patents
granted and two patents pending.
SeaView trades under the OTC BB symbol SEVU.
website: www.sevu.com
email: info@sevu.com
THIS PRESS RELEASE contains certain forward-looking statements
within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as
amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, which
are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby.
Investors are cautioned that all forward-looking statements involve
risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, the ability of
SeaView Video Technology Inc. to accomplish its stated plan of
business. Although SeaView Video Technology Inc. believes that the
assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained herein
are reasonable, any of the assumptions could be inaccurate, and,
therefore, there can be no assurance that the forward-looking
statements included in this press release will prove to be accurate.
In light of the significant uncertainties inherent in the
forward-looking statements included herein, the inclusion of such
information should not be regarded as a representation by SeaView
Video Technology Inc. or any other person that the objectives and
plans of SeaView Video Technology Inc. will be achieved.
--30--pp/mi*
CONTACT: SeaView Video Technology, Inc., St. Petersburg
J R Cox, 727/866-3660
email: info@sevu.com
¶ BESC: BestNet Communications Launches Phone2Phone Online With Network Twenty-One International, an Amway/Quixtar Distributor Support and Training Organization
TUCSON, Ariz, Jun 20, 2001 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- BestNet Communications Corp.
(OTCBB:BESC) announced the launch of Phone2Phone Online.com, a custom branded
long distance and conference calling service created for Amway/QUIXTAR
distributors (Independent Business Owners)(IBOs) affiliated with Network
Twenty-One International. Based in Atlanta, Georgia, Network 21 has affiliated
offices in 20 countries worldwide and is one of the largest Amway/QUIXTAR
distributor training and support organizations in the world.
The Phone2Phone Online Service will be available to all IBOs affiliated with
Network 21 in North America, and IBOs in a number of select markets outside
North America. Using BestNet's patented internet-based long distance and
conference calling technology, this powerful business tool will allow IBOs to
reduce the cost of international long distance, as well as provide interactive
communication with prospective clients and business relationships. As an
example, a "Call Me" function is an icon based image that can be emailed, or
pasted onto any document for worldwide electronic distribution. By clicking on
the "Call Me" icon, the recipient initiates a free call back to the IBO. The
service is comparable to a private 800 service, but without the typical high
cost or geographic restrictions.
The agreement between Network 21 and BestNet Communications Corp. encourages the
use of Phone2Phone Online for internal use by Network 21 and its international
affiliates, as well as expanding distribution to other Amway/QUIXTAR distributor
support and training organizations in the future.
Jim Dornan, founder of Network 21, stated, "We're very excited about our
association with BestNet Communications and the Phone2Phone online service we
jointly developed. This patented product gives unprecedented savings for long
distance and conference calling to all our worldwide IBOs, as well as
cutting-edge communication tools, such as the Call Me service."
Gerry Quinn, president CEO of BestNet Communications, stated, "This is an
important opportunity for our company. The power and global reach of Network 21
is impressive. We believe that our association with Network 21 provides an
opportunity to access other Amway support and training organizations.
Amway/Quixtar has a vast international distribution organization consisting of
millions of IBOs worldwide for whom our product is ideally suited."
About Network 21
Network 21 is an international organization specializing in leadership and
training development for Amway/Quixtar IBOs worldwide. Network 21 supports IBOs
in the United States, Argentina, Australia, Czech Republic, Chile, Columbia,
Croatia, Greece, Hungry, India, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Poland, Romania, South Africa, Slovenia, Turkey and the United Kingdom. To learn
more about Network 21, visit its website at http://www.n21.com. To learn more
about Phone2Phone Online.com, go to http://www.phone2phoneonline.com.
About BestNet Communications Corp.
As an Internet-enabled long distance service provider, BestNet Communications
combines access and control of the Internet with the Public Switched Telephone
Network (PSTN). The Company provides telephone and conference calling services
using the web, desktop, and handheld Internet devices. The patented Bestnetcall
system provides commercial quality, global access, low rates, real-time call
detail and billing and call management features. Bestnetcall is used by
customers in over 100 countries. For corporate information, visit the website at
http://www.bestnetcom.com.
This press release contains certain forward-looking statements made pursuant to
the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995. This information may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements.
Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not
limited to, those factors detailed by BestNet Communications Corp. in its
filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
CONTACT: For BestNet Communications Corp. (Source):
Infinity Group, Fort Lauderdale
Joseph M. Vazquez, 954/938-1919
Email: jmv111@bellsouth.net
FG, what do you think the current short position is on iftp, I have heard it could be 500 million shares?? Assuming the amex deal goes through, how high could you see us going, since all short positions have to be covered (assuming the short position is equal to the entire o/s)?
***¶*** Naked shorting sanctioned, broker fined:
http://www.nasdr.com/pdf-text/0106dis.txt
Firms Expelled, Individual Sanctioned
Falcon Trading Group, Inc. (CRD #30361, Boca Raton, Florida), Sovereign
Equity Management Corp. (CRD #20016, Deerfield Beach, Florida), and Glen
Thomas Vittor (CRD #1565323, Registered Principal, Deerfield Beach, Florida)
were fined $1 million, jointly and severally. In addition, the firms were expelled
from NASD membership and Vittor was barred from association with any NASD
member in any capacity. The sanctions were based on findings that the
respondents effected short sales for the firms' own accounts and failed to make an
affirmative determination that the firms could borrow the securities or otherwise
provide for delivery of the securities by the settlement date. The findings also
stated that the respondents, in cooperation with others, attempted to obtain stock
at below-market prices through the use of threats and coercion, and that, through
naked short sales and extortion, the respondents participated in a manipulation of
the market for those securities. (NASD Case #CAF980002)
SEVU+48%, I hear that NAIB is DONE Selling,...
and it seems that most short positions have been covered by now, so I should expect a substantial recovery in the stock price in the weeks to come...
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
¶ CORRECTION: the calculation Method for ENP/IFTP...
I used is flawed and here is the correct version, I hope...
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010615/2164.html
1) ENP has 18.6 million shares oustanding @.14 per share, giving a Market Cap of $2,604,000... It will have about 1 million shares in the new Company, thus each new share will cost, if acquired by buying ENP shares: $2.6 mil ÷ 1 mil sh. = ± $2.60/sh...
2) IFTP has around 600 million shares outstanding @.024 per share, giving a Market Cap of $14,400,000... It will have about 13.1 million shares in the new Company, thus each new share will cost, if acquired by buying IFTP shares: $14,400,000 ÷ 13,100,000 sh. = ± $1.10/sh...
I haven't bothered about the Warrants at $5.00/share on the IFTP side, however, ENP gets to keep all its Assets (Book Value: 28 cents x 18.6 mil shares = $5.2 mil, including Cash of $1.1 mil + $500K from IFTP) that it plans to spin into another OTC-BB shell, whose shares will be distributed to current ENP shareholders...
Even after the correction, the deal still works in ENP's favor ($1.60/share cash value + other assets are spun off), but only marginally so...
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
SFII (1.15 x 1.30) filed an 8K today...
REVERSE MERGER: our profile list stock SFII (1.15 x 1.30) filed an 8K today
stating they have acquired the contractual rights of Argo, Ltd. In
addition, $390,000.00 will be used by Acquisition Corp. to enter into one or
more agreements with a Mr. John Stafnals and Evo Tech to evaluate and, if
feasible, to develop a device which has the potential to convert an analogue
television signal into digital television signal.
DISCLAIMER
The ShellStockReview.Com is not a Registered Investment
Advisor or a Broker/Dealer. Not a recommendation to
buy, sell, or hold SFII.
http://www.ShellStockReview.com/ssrDisclaimer.htm
If the ENP/IFTP deal goes through...
the logical play is to arbitrage between the respective values of each stock...
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010615/2164.html
1) ENP (13 cents) reverse splits 1 for 18.55: .13 ÷ 18.55 = ± 0.008 cents...
2) Assuming IFTP has 600 million shares to be divided by 13.1 million ENP, it would give a 45.8 ratio...
IFTP trades at 3.2 cents, hence: .032 ÷ 45.8 = .0007
So ENP seems to be the better value by a factor of 11.4 (.008 ÷ .0007 = 11.43), although if the deal fails, it's likely to become worthless... I spoke with David D'Arcangelo, who thinks there is a very good probability that it'll happen...
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
PS: The quote used for ENP was the close on 14th June and the stock now trades at 16 cents, while IFTP is even lower at 2.4 cents...
¶ "Blank Check" Shells are unsuitable for Merger Purposes...
Some cunning Businessmen were creating "Blank Check" shells by the hundreds for Reverse Merger purposes, thereby violating the Spirit and Intent found in the relevant SEC Regulations... One Businessman was stupid enough to boast about it in a Newspaper article and the SEC clamped down on all "Blank Check" Companies...
When SEC decides to stop such a practice, it only becomes apparent after a while, with applications sitting on SEC desks, unprocessed... Eventually, SEC publishes an opinion Letter in reply to questions concerning the delay....
A Shell to have value must be the remains of a real company that has previously traded and which has either discontinued an unprofitable Business or sold it and is sitting on a pile of cash, like HMSR, for example...
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
***¶*** Excellent Website for evaluating Shells...
http://www.shellstockreview.com/index.htm
¶ Are Stock Bashers really trying to "Save Investors"?....
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=15954679
To:Stock Watcher who wrote (45538)
From: Bill Fortune III Saturday, Jun 16, 2001 6:01 PM
Respond to of 45540
Hey Neil and all. On the lighter side:
Some hallmarks of investor rescuers!
1) Did you ever lose time from work or time with the family due to saving investors?
2) Has saving investors ever made your home life unhappy?
3) Did saving investors affect your reputation?
4) Have you ever felt remorse after saving investors?
5) Did you ever save investors in order to get a euphoric high?
6) Did saving investors cause a decrease in your ambition or efficiency?
7) After saving investors, did you feel you must return as soon as possible and to save some more?
8) After a save, did you have a strong urge to return and save some more?
9) Do you often save investors until your last friend is gone?
10) Have you ever sold anything just to be able to save investors?
11) Were you reluctant to use "saving knowledge" for the rich and famous investors?
12) Did saving investors make you careless of the welfare of yourself and your family?
13) Did you ever save investors longer than you had planned?
14) Have you ever saved investors to escape worry or trouble of your own?
15) Have you ever committed, or considered committing, an illegal act just to save investors?
16) Did saving investors cause difficulty in sleeping?
17) Would you rather save investors instead of eating?
18) Do arguments, disappointments or frustrations create within you an urge to save investors?
19) Did you ever have an urge to celebrate your good abilities by a few hours of saving investors?
20) Have you ever considered self destruction or suicide as a result of your saving investors?
Most compulsive rescuers will answer Yes to at least 7 questions!
And
The Stock Basher JIG!..
http://raketik.com/workshop2/workshop.html
Regards,
Bill
TexN, SCRO, US$11.54 million (HK$90 million) well spent...
on the acquisition of CopperClad, it would seem... Over the last 3 years, SCRO had bought some US$7.27 million or HK$56.7 million worth of supply from that Company, so it made good sense to acquire it...
http://10kwizard.ragingbull.com/fil_submis.asp?repo=tenk&ipage=1434844&doc=1&total=&....
"Jiang Yin has been one of ATIH's laminated sheet suppliers. For the three years ended December 31, 2000, total purchases of ATIH from Jiang Yin were HK$8,995,969, HK$40,767,476 and HK$6,928,154 respectively."
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=123
Yet, at $9.77 million, SCRO's Market Cap is 16% LESS than the cost of its latest acquisition, clearly demonstrating how mis-priced SCRO shares are...
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scro.ob.html
Market Capitalization $9.77M
Shares Outstanding 19.9M
Float 3.40M
2000 Earnings: 21 cents
Last Quarter Earnings: 6 cents
Book Value ex-acquisition: 32 cents
Additionnal Book Value: $11,540,000 ÷ 19,900,000 sh = 58 cents
Last trade: 49 cents
JMHO, F. Goelo + + +
***¶***Weekly Economic Indicators & Second Guessing Grenspan....
WEEKLY UPDATE FOR: June 16, 2001 by Bob Bose
Prior Week in Review:
Financial Market Highlights:
============================
06/15/01 06/08/01 %Change
S&P 500 1,214.36 1,264.96 -4.00%
Dow Jones 10,623.64 10,977.00 -3.22%
NASD Comp 2,028.42 2,215.10 -8.43%
Russell 2000 495.13 511.72 -3.24%
SOX Index 608.92 675.70 -9.88%
Value Line 391.26 410.22 -4.62%
MS Growth 548.30 564.39 -2.85%
MS Cyclical 538.97 566.23 -4.81%
T - Bill 3.43% 3.53% -10 BP
Long Bond 5.67% 5.73% -6 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $272.30 $274.50 -$2.20
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.40 $4.37 +$.03
Economic News:
==============
Backward Looking Data Weak - Forward Looking Reports Better
Both Producer and Consumer Price Indexes Positive
No Change In Our View - Second Half Recovery Still Best Bet
*Richmond FRB Index improves to -20 in May from -25
*May Retail Sales rose +.1% - Ex Auto +.3% - Also April
Revised to +1.4% from +1.1%
*Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Beige Book Stresses Softness
*Jobless Claims fell -12,000 to 428,000 - Four Week
Moving Average rose +11,000 to 424,500
*April Business Inventories unchanged - Sales fell -.5%
Inventory/Sales Ratio rose to 1.44 months from 1.43
*May Producer Price Index rose +.1% - Core Rate -
Without volatile food and energy prices - rose +.2%
*May Consumer Price Index rose +.4% - Core rate up +.1%
*May Industrial Production off -.8% - Eighth drop in a row
*Capacity Utilization for May fell to 77.4% - Lowest
Since August 1983
*Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mid Month 91.6 - Virtually
Unchanged from May's final level of 92.0
No reports that were released last week would cause us
to alter our long held view that an economic recovery
should begin late in the second half and accelerate into
2002. The weakest appearing reports were industrial
production, and, naturally, capacity utilization - but
they are only reflecting the concentration of the slowdown
in the manufacturing sector. In effect, old news.
The FRB's Beige Book also reflected a very soft economy,
and was somewhat unusual in the tone of the summary remarks.
But, there was also some good news in the report in that
they noted "Most districts saw only modest pressure on
wages." And "... workers report favoring job security
over higher wages." As you know, we are much more concerned
than most that inflationary pressures could build as the
economy accelerates, so the absence of wage pressures
is a real positive.
The more broadly based price indexes also support that there
is no near term price pressure. At the producer level
both the overall index and the core rate (excluding the
more volatile food and energy categories) were well
behaved. And, while the "as reported" consumer index
rose sharply, the core rate was well contained. And, since
these surveys were taken, energy prices have backed off. So,
for now the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not
feel constrained by inflationary concerns.
While one bit of data is never conclusive, the fact that
business inventories were unchanged, even as sales eased,
is at least modest support that the worst of the production
cutbacks has already occurred. And then there is the consumer.
As noted above, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was
basically unchanged over the past two weeks. Some may view
this report as "who cares", but the point is that consumers
do not appear to be retrenching, and certainly not to the
extent some believe was implied by the latest retail sales
report. In other words, we are much more comfortable
"smoothing" the retail sales data for April and May as
an indication of overall consumer demand, and the latest
Michigan Survey supports our view.
And, in just over a month, the first weekly mailing of tax
refund checks will be begin - just in time for "back-to-school"
spending, or a little extra vacation spending. And, with any
luck at all, the lagged impact of prior monetary easing should
begin to "kick in" shortly thereafter, in time for the important
holiday selling season.
Perhaps this is "scripting" the consumer too precisely, but
in the larger scheme of things it is the direction, and
magnitude, that are important not the exact timing. So, given
our belief that consumer spending should recover as the second
half progresses, we remain convinced that a recovery will
be underway before year end.
And, given the benign inflationary readings, and the tone of
the FRB Beige Book with an easing bias in place, it seems
likely that the FOMC will take out an "insurance policy" later
this month with one more rate cut. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data:
=========================================
Tuesday: Housing Starts/Permits
Wednesday: Leading Economic Indicators
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia FRB Index International Trade Data
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