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Economic News: ==============
Backward Looking Data Weak - Forward Looking Reports Better Both Producer and Consumer Price Indexes Positive No Change In Our View - Second Half Recovery Still Best Bet
*Richmond FRB Index improves to -20 in May from -25
*May Retail Sales rose +.1% - Ex Auto +.3% - Also April Revised to +1.4% from +1.1%
*Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Beige Book Stresses Softness
*Jobless Claims fell -12,000 to 428,000 - Four Week Moving Average rose +11,000 to 424,500
*April Business Inventories unchanged - Sales fell -.5% Inventory/Sales Ratio rose to 1.44 months from 1.43
*May Producer Price Index rose +.1% - Core Rate - Without volatile food and energy prices - rose +.2%
*May Consumer Price Index rose +.4% - Core rate up +.1%
*May Industrial Production off -.8% - Eighth drop in a row
*Capacity Utilization for May fell to 77.4% - Lowest Since August 1983
*Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Mid Month 91.6 - Virtually Unchanged from May's final level of 92.0
No reports that were released last week would cause us to alter our long held view that an economic recovery should begin late in the second half and accelerate into 2002. The weakest appearing reports were industrial production, and, naturally, capacity utilization - but they are only reflecting the concentration of the slowdown in the manufacturing sector. In effect, old news.
The FRB's Beige Book also reflected a very soft economy, and was somewhat unusual in the tone of the summary remarks. But, there was also some good news in the report in that they noted "Most districts saw only modest pressure on wages." And "... workers report favoring job security over higher wages." As you know, we are much more concerned than most that inflationary pressures could build as the economy accelerates, so the absence of wage pressures is a real positive.
The more broadly based price indexes also support that there is no near term price pressure. At the producer level both the overall index and the core rate (excluding the more volatile food and energy categories) were well behaved. And, while the "as reported" consumer index rose sharply, the core rate was well contained. And, since these surveys were taken, energy prices have backed off. So, for now the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not feel constrained by inflationary concerns.
While one bit of data is never conclusive, the fact that business inventories were unchanged, even as sales eased, is at least modest support that the worst of the production cutbacks has already occurred. And then there is the consumer.
As noted above, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey was basically unchanged over the past two weeks. Some may view this report as "who cares", but the point is that consumers do not appear to be retrenching, and certainly not to the extent some believe was implied by the latest retail sales report. In other words, we are much more comfortable "smoothing" the retail sales data for April and May as an indication of overall consumer demand, and the latest Michigan Survey supports our view.
And, in just over a month, the first weekly mailing of tax refund checks will be begin - just in time for "back-to-school" spending, or a little extra vacation spending. And, with any luck at all, the lagged impact of prior monetary easing should begin to "kick in" shortly thereafter, in time for the important holiday selling season.
Perhaps this is "scripting" the consumer too precisely, but in the larger scheme of things it is the direction, and magnitude, that are important not the exact timing. So, given our belief that consumer spending should recover as the second half progresses, we remain convinced that a recovery will be underway before year end.
And, given the benign inflationary readings, and the tone of the FRB Beige Book with an easing bias in place, it seems likely that the FOMC will take out an "insurance policy" later this month with one more rate cut. Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: =========================================
Tuesday: Housing Starts/Permits
Wednesday: Leading Economic Indicators
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philadelphia FRB Index International Trade Data
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