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Economic News: ==============
Last Week's Data On The Surface Somewhat Mixed Details, And Important Reports, Much More Positive Nothing Changes Our Forecast For Late Second Half Recovery
*July Retail Sales unchanged - Ex Autos +.2% June revised from +.2% to unchanged - See Below
*Business Inventories fell -.4% - Sales fell -1.4% Inventory/Sales Ratio ticks up to 1.43 months
*July Industrial Production fell -.1% - Capacity Utilization edged lower to 77.0% from 77.2%
*Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 380,000 - Four Week Moving Average down -9,250 to 370,750 - Five month low
*July Housing Starts rose +2.8% to 1.67 mil annual rate But Housing Permits eased -1.8%
*July Consumer Price Index fell -.3% - Core Rate Ex volatile food and energy rose +.2%
*August Philadelphia FRB Index fell to -23.5 from -12.2
*June Trade Deficit -$29.4 bil - In line with consensus
*Univ. of Michigan mid-month Consumer Sentiment 93.4 Up from July's 92.4 and consensus forecast of 92.0 Expectations rose to 101.7 from July's 98.6
Although there were a few soft spots in last week's reports, on balance, in our opinion, the numbers were pretty good. And, given the continued lack of any buildup of inflationary pressures, it is about as good a bet as one can make that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lower rates by one quarter of one percent after their meeting on Tuesday. So, that decision is already "priced into" the market. What isn't "priced in" is the improving outlook for 2002.
First, the all important consumer continues to keep the economy out of recession, although retail sales were unchanged for July. However, gasoline is, not too surprisingly, a decent component of retail sales, and as we all know, the price of gasoline has been falling sharply. The impact is not only that of a modest tax cut, but also to suppress reported retail sales growth. In other words, retail sales are holding up quite well.
Friday's release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report was also a positive. Not only did it tick up, versus a consensus expectation of a modest decline, but the more forward looking expectations subcomponent had a larger gain. Granted, it is only one data point, but it is directionally important, and at the worst implies that the outlook for consumer spending has not deteriorated.
The manufacturing sector, which has been declining sharply, may now be bottoming out. For instance, while overall industrial production declined slightly in July, manufacturing production was flat. And, then there is the continuing improvement in the jobless claims reports, as the less volatile four week moving average is at a five month low, and as we noted last week continues to contradict some of the Beige Book.
In part the explanation may lie in the continuing decline in the manufacturing sector as a source of jobs, as the service sector becomes increasingly important. Or, it may simply be that the lagged impact of the labor markets is beginning to decelerate. In any case, we are not trying to assert that all is well in the manufacturing sector, or that the unemployment rate won't rise further - it will.
Our view is that the economy continues to bounce along the bottom, at virtually zero growth. But, it seems quite likely that consumers will not precipitate an acceleration to the downside, and that the stimulative impact of prior monetary easing, and the current tax refund, will produce the desired recovery beginning later this year.
And, the FOMC will take out an "insurance policy" next week. It may not help the financial markets near term, but our view remains that the key driver for the stock market should be the outlook for 2002. Barring some exogenous event, a recovery toward trendline growth beginning late this year, and accelerating in 2002, should stabilize forecasts, and ultimately lead the stock market higher.
Stay tuned !
Current Weekly Calendar of Economic Data: =========================================
Monday: Leading Economic Indicators
Tuesday: FOMC Meeting
Thursday: Jobless Claims, FOMC Minutes - June Meeting
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